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DOE OSTI2021

A Shallow-Water Model for Convective Self-Aggregation

Randomly distributed convective storms can self-aggregate in the absence of large-scale forcings. Here we present a 1D shallow-water model to study the convective self-aggregation. This model simulates the dynamics of the planetary boundary layer and represents convection as a triggered process. Once triggered, convection lasts for finite time and occupies finite length. Here we show that the model can successfully simulate self-aggregation, and that the results are robust to a wide range of parameter values. In the simulations, convection excites gravity waves. The gravity waves then form a standing wave pattern, separating the domain into convectively active and inactive regions. We analyze the available potential energy (APE) budget and show that convection generates APE, providing energy for self-aggregation. By performing dimensional analysis, we develop a scaling theory for the size of convective aggregation, which is set by the gravity wave speed, damping time scale, and number density of convective storms. This paper provides a simple modeling framework to further study convective self-aggregation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Convective Influence on the Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in the Boreal Summer Asian Monsoon Region

Processes maintaining the localized maxima in lower stratospheric watervapor over the boreal summer Asian monsoon region are investigated usingtrajectory and cloud models that resolve the detailed cloudmicrophysical processes, with observation-based convection and radiationschemes. We examine the impact of convective influence along parceltrajectories on cloud formation and dehydration by tracing thetrajectories through time-dependent fields of convective cloud topheights estimated from global rainfall and geostationary brightnesstemperatures. Parameters such as the rainfall threshold used foridentification of deep convection are derived by comparison with theCloudSat deep convective cloud top product as enhanced by colocatedCALIOP measurements. The simulated water vapor field at the 100 hPalevel and cloud occurrence frequencies in the tropical tropopause layer(TTL) are constrained by corresponding observations from MLS andCALIPSO, respectively. The observed maximum in the 100 hPa level watervapor field over the Asian monsoon region is only present in thesimulation with convective influence, indicating the importance ofconvective hydration for the summertime water vapor distribution.Convection moistens the 100 hPa level over the Asian monsoon by 1 ppmv,where 75 of this moistening is due to convection occurring locallywithin the monsoon region. Convection also increases the cloudoccurrence frequency in the TTL over the southern sector of the Asianmonsoon anticyclone by 20. Parcels are convectively hydrated in thesoutheastern sector of the anticyclone, transported westward by theanticyclonic circulation, and dehydrated in the southwestern sector. Therelative importance of extreme convective events that inject ice andwater vapor near or above the tropopause will also be examined.

convection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Convective Transport and Evolution of Clouds and aerosols in the Asian Summer Monsoon Region

The existence of a persistent layer in the lowermost stratosphere in the Asian Monsoon region is well-known and has been observed by satellites and also in situ by balloon-borne sensors. This aerosol layer has been observed to persist every year by both SAGE sensors and by CALIOP, between the tropopause and the lower boundary of the Junge stratospheric sulfate layer. But how does this layer form and why? Apparently, aerosols are lofted by convection form the Indian and Asian continents, into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) area in the middle of a persistent anticyclone associate with the Asian summer monsoon. But some mysteries remain. The top of this aerosol layer is well above the altitude of maximum convective outflow, so why is the top of the aerosol layer so high? Are the aerosols coming from China or from India? And finally, is there an observable impact of these aerosol on thin cirrus distributions in the UT/LS? We explore the interesting difference in altitude between the ATAL layer and the convective cloud top height, using observations from CALIOP and from SAGE. In the process of doing this we examine the accuracy of both CALIOP and SAGE cloud/aerosol discrimination, and the impact of various averaging lengths. We compare the apparent "observational tropopause" with observations from COSMIC, CALIOP (clouds), and with modeled interpolation from MERRA-2. We also compare CALIOP and CloudSat daytime cloud top heights for convective clouds with the vertical aerosol distribution, and evaluate convection in this region as represented by MERRA-2. Finally, and maybe most importantly we compare convective cloud top heights and temperatures with diurnal variability during the most recent years by using observations from the geostationary Himawari satellite. How representative are the twice-daily A-Train observations, when compared to the natural diurnal variability of convection? The goal is to establish the origins of these UT/LS aerosols, whether these aerosol distributions can be completely explained by convective transport, and to evaluate convective lofting of aerosol by models. Ultimately, the convective lofting of aerosols as modeled is needed to explain the Asian Monsoon aerosol distributions. The observations contribute much-needed information to enhance the model accuracy.

clouds↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Non‐Linear Dimensionality Reduction With a Variational Encoder Decoder to Understand Convective Processes in Climate Models

Abstract Deep learning can accurately represent sub‐grid‐scale convective processes in climate models, learning from high resolution simulations. However, deep learning methods usually lack interpretability due to large internal dimensionality, resulting in reduced trustworthiness in these methods. Here, we use Variational Encoder Decoder structures (VED), a non‐linear dimensionality reduction technique, to learn and understand convective processes in an aquaplanet superparameterized climate model simulation, where deep convective processes are simulated explicitly. We show that similar to previous deep learning studies based on feed‐forward neural nets, the VED is capable of learning and accurately reproducing convective processes. In contrast to past work, we show this can be achieved by compressing the original information into only five latent nodes. As a result, the VED can be used to understand convective processes and delineate modes of convection through the exploration of its latent dimensions. A close investigation of the latent space enables the identification of different convective regimes: (a) stable conditions are clearly distinguished from deep convection with low outgoing longwave radiation and strong precipitation; (b) high optically thin cirrus‐like clouds are separated from low optically thick cumulus clouds; and (c) shallow convective processes are associated with large‐scale moisture content and surface diabatic heating. Our results demonstrate that VEDs can accurately represent convective processes in climate models, while enabling interpretability and better understanding of sub‐grid‐scale physical processes, paving the way to increasingly interpretable machine learning parameterizations with promising generative properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Vertical Resolution Impacts Explicit Simulation of Deep Convection

Abstract The aggregation of tropical convection greatly influences the mean‐state of the atmosphere, altering humidity distributions, total atmospheric radiative cooling, and cloud amounts. Although studies have demonstrated the sensitivity of convective aggregation to horizontal resolution and domain size, few studies have explored the impact of vertical resolution on convective aggregation. Here, we investigate the impact of vertical resolution on simulations of deep convection and convective aggregation using the System for Atmospheric Modeling convection resolving model. We analyze simulations of tropical radiative‐convective equilibrium with varying vertical levels (32, 64, 128, and 256) across small (100 km), medium (700 km) and large (1,500 km) domains. We demonstrate that relative humidity and cloud fraction decrease with increasing vertical resolution as a result of reduced turbulent mixing. Vertical resolution also influences the occurrence of, onset time, and equilibrium intensity of aggregated convection, and also appears to affect the sensitivity of convective aggregation to domain size. Understanding how simulated convection aggregates, as well as its simulated sensitivity to model formulation, is critical for making and interpreting future predictions of global climate change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Convective Biases in the US DOE Global Storm‐Resolving Model: Insights From Regionally Refined Simulations During the CACTI Campaign

Accurately simulating convective processes in complex terrain remains a critical challenge for global storm-resolving models (GSRMs). This study systematically evaluates moist convective biases in the Regionally Refined Mesh configuration of the U.S. Department of Energy Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (RRM-SCREAM) using comprehensive observations and large-eddy simulations from the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) campaign in the mountainous area of central Argentina. Comparisons of simulations with high-resolution observations and reanalysis data indicate that RRM-SCREAM effectively captures large-scale meteorological patterns, including regional atmospheric gradients and diurnal variability. However, RRM-SCREAM disproportionately produces smaller precipitation clusters referred to as “popcorn convection,” and exaggerated rainfall intensities compared to observations and reference models. Detailed examination of a representative orographic shallow-to-deep convective transition case shows that RRM-SCREAM delays initial shallow convection growth due to lower-tropospheric dryness and sustained convective inhibition, but once triggered, deep convection becomes overly vigorous with excessively strong vertical velocities and elevated cloud ice content, linked to a thermodynamic structure characterized by suppressed low-level moistening and excessive upper-level moisture retention. Our results highlight specific deficiencies in the model representation of convective vertical velocity, cloud microphysical processes, and convective precipitation organization within RRM-SCREAM. Addressing these biases is essential for improving the predictions of convective clouds and precipitation in the global high-resolution atmospheric models.

Su, Tianning [Lawrence Livermore National Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhancing Convection Parameterization for Next Generation E3SM (Final Technical Report)

This technical report summarizes the achievements during the project period. The general goal of the project is to enhance the representation of atmospheric deep convection in the DOE global climate model E3SM. By implementing a stochastic convection scheme into E3SM, we improved the simulation of precipitation intensity and frequency. As a result, it has a profound impact on the simulation of other fields in the model, including aerosol scavenging by precipitation and aerosol radiative effects. We also implemented a convective cloud microphysics scheme into E3SMv2 to represent more accurately the interaction between convection and grid-scale clouds. An extensive analysis of model simulations as part of the Next Generation Development (NGD) convection scheme assessment project found that including the convective microphysics scheme improved the simulation of Madden-Julian oscillations (MJO) in the model. To make convective parameterization schemes more scale-aware as the GCM resolution increases, we analyzed the output from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of both organized and unorganized convection by coarse-graining the CRM data to different GCM resolutions. Using a novel approach to modify the convective closure, we demonstrated that the convection scheme used in E3SM (ZM scheme) can be made scale-aware.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid SACR Observations of Convection at Bankhead National Forest (RAPID) Field Campaign Report

Improving our representation of convective cell processes requires better quantification of convective clouds throughout their entire life cycle. This includes gaining a clearer understanding of the controls on key convective cloud properties, such as updraft intensity, particle size distributions, rainfall rates, and hydrometeor species. Our inability to improve convective cloud process modeling stems, in part, from a limited understanding of convective cell properties, particularly given how rapidly these storms evolve. This lack of detailed observations in the most intense and organized convective storms is especially significant, as large errors remain in representing these clouds, which are critical for severe weather prediction and Earth system model performance. Cloud and precipitation radars are essential tools for studying cloud microphysics and dynamics, particularly in deeper convective clouds. The recent U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s third Mobile Facility (AMF3) Bankhead National Forest (BNF) deployment provides a unique opportunity to investigate important land–atmosphere interactions, as well as the environmental controls on deep convective cloud processes, in a location favorable for frequent convection. We operate the X/Ka-band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (X/Ka SACR) using a scan strategy optimized to capture these rapidly evolving clouds and their properties, thereby improving studies of deep convective cloud processes. This effort is strengthened by a complementary and coordinated partnership with ongoing university and multi-agency radar activities collocated in north Alabama—a unique opportunity to examine clouds and precipitation from a lifetime-centric perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1996

Turbulent Compressible Convection with Rotation: Flow Structure and Evolution - Part 1

The effects of Coriolis forces on compressible convection are studied using three-dimensional numerical simulations carried out within a local modified f-plane model. The physics is simplified by considering a perfect gas occupying a rectilinear domain placed tangentially to a rotating sphere at various latitudes, through which a destabilizing heat flux is driven. The resulting convection is considered for a range of Rayleigh, Taylor, and Prandtl (and thus Rossby) numbers, evaluating conditions where the influence of rotation is both weak and strong. Given the computational demands of these high-resolution simulations, the parameter space is explored sparsely to ascertain the differences between laminar and turbulent rotating convection. The first paper in this series examines the effects of rotation on the flow structure within the convection, its evolution, and some consequences for mixing. Subsequent papers consider the large-scale mean shear flows that are generated by the convection, and the effects of rotation on the convective energetics and transport properties. It is found here that the structure of rotating turbulent convection is similar to earlier nonrotating studies, with a laminar, cellular surface network disguising a fully turbulent interior punctuated by vertically coherent structures. However, the temporal signature of the surface flows is modified by inertial motions to yield new cellular evolution patterns and an overall increase in the mobility of the network. The turbulent convection contains vortex tubes of many scales, including large-scale coherent structures spanning the full vertical extent of the domain involving multiple density scale heights. Remarkably, such structures align with the rotation vector via the influence of Coriolis forces on turbulent motions, in contrast with the zonal tilting of streamlines found in laminar flows. Such novel turbulent mechanisms alter the correlations which drive mean shearing flows and affect the convective transport properties. In contrast to this large-scale anisotropy, small-scale vortex tubes at greater depths are randomly orientated by the rotational mixing of momentum, leading to an increased degree of isotropy on the medium to small scales of motion there. Rotation also influences the thermodynamic mixing properties of the convection. In particular, interaction of the larger coherent vortices causes a loss of correlation between the vertical velocity and the temperature leaving a mean stratification which is not isentropic.

Brummell, Nicholas H.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Exploiting the Temperature/Concentration Dependence of Magnetic Susceptibility to Control Convection in Fundamental Studies of Solidification Phenomena

The objective of this new research project is to demonstrate by experiment, supplemented by mathematical modeling and physical property measurement, that the effects of buoyancy driven convection can be largely eliminated in ground-based experiments, and further reduced in flight, by applying a new technique. That technique exploits the dependence of magnetic susceptibility on composition or temperature. It is emphasized at the outset that the phenomenon to be exploited is fundamentally and practically different from the magnetic damping of convection in conducting liquids that has been the subject of much prior research. The concept suggesting this research is that all materials, even non-conductors, when placed in a magnetic field gradient, experience a force. Of particular interest here are paramagnetic and diamagnetic materials, classes which embrace the "model alloys", such as succinonitrile-acetone, that have been used by others investigating the fundamentals of solidification. Such alloys will exhibit a dependence of susceptibility on composition. The consequence is that, with a properly oriented field (gradient) a force will arise that can be made to be equal to, but opposite, the buoyancy force arising from concentration (or temperature) gradients. In this way convection can be stilled. The role of convection in determining the microstructure, and thereby properties, of materials is well known. Elimination of that convection has both scientific and technological consequences. Our knowledge of diffusive phenomena in solidification, phenomena normally hidden by the dominance of convection, is enhanced if we can study solidification of quiescent liquids. Furthermore, the microstructure, microchemistry and properties of materials (thereby practical value) are affected by the convection occurring during their solidification. Hitherto the method of choice for elimination of convection has been experimentation in microgravity. However, even in low Earth orbit, residual convection has effects. That residual convection arises from acceleration (drag on the spacecraft), displacement from the center of mass or transients in the gravitational field (g-jitter). There is therefore a need for both further reducing buoyancy driven flow in flight and allowing the simulation of microgravity during ground based experiments. Previous investigations, the research project description, theory behind the study and experimental methods as well as plots of magnetic fields and forces are presented.

Evans, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Convection in Icy Satellites: Implications for Habitability and Planetary Protection

Solid-state convection and endogenic resurfacing in the outer ice shells of the icy Galilean satellites (especially Europa) may contribute to the habitability of their internal oceans and to the detectability of any biospheres by spacecraft. If convection occurs in an ice I layer, fluid motions are confined beneath a thick stagnant lid of cold, immobile ice that is too stiff to participate in convection. The thickness of the stagnant lid varies from 30 to 50% of the total thickness of the ice shell, depending on the grain size of ice. Upward convective motions deliver approximately 10(exp 9) to 10(exp 13) kg yr(sup -1) of ice to the base of the stagnant lid, where resurfacing events driven by compositional or tidal effects (such as the formation of domes or ridges on Europa, or formation of grooved terrain on Ganymede) may deliver materials from the stagnant lid onto the surface. Conversely, downward convective motions deliver the same mass of ice from the base of the stagnant lid to the bottom of the satellites ice shells. Materials from the satellites surfaces may be delivered to their oceans by downward convective motions if material from the surface can reach the base of the stagnant lid during resurfacing events. Triggering convection from an initially conductive ice shell requires modest amplitude (a few to tens of kelvins) temperature anomalies to soften the ice to permit convection, which may require tidal heating. Therefore, tidal heating, compositional buoyancy, and solid-state convection in combination may be required to permit mass transport between the surfaces and oceans of icy satellites. Callisto and probably Ganymede have thick stagnant lids with geologically inactive surfaces today, so forward contamination of their surfaces is not a significant issue. Active convection and breaching of the stagnant lid is a possibility on Europa today, so is of relevance to planetary protection policy.

Barr, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Deep Convection, Tropospheric Mean Temperature and Cloud-Induced Radiative Fluxes

Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20oN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

Ramey, Holly S.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Relationships Between Tropical Deep Convection, Tropospheric Mean Temperature and Cloud-Induced Radiative Fluxes on Intraseasonal Time Scales

Ramey, Holly S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Relationships Between Tropical Deep Convection, Tropospheric Mean Temperature and Cloud-Induced Radiative Fluxes on Intraseasonal Time Scales

Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20degN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

Ramey, Holly S.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Retrieved Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One operational forecast challenge is forecasting convective weather in data-void regions such as large bodies of water (e.g. Gulf of Mexico). To address this forecast challenge, SPoRT produces a twice-daily three-dimensional analysis that blends a model first-guess from the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) -- a hyperspectral sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. AIRS profiles are unique in that they give a three dimensional view of the atmosphere that is not available through the current rawinsonde network. AIRS has two overpass swaths across North America each day, one valid in the 0700-0900 UTC timeframe and the other in the 1900-2100 UTC timeframe. This is helpful because the rawinsonde network only has data from 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC at specific land-based locations. Comparing the AIRS analysis product with control analyses that include no AIRS data demonstrates the value of the retrieved profiles to situational awareness for the pre-convective (and convective) environment. In an attempt to verify that the AIRS analysis was a good representation of the vertical structure of the atmosphere, both the AIRS and control analyses are compared to a Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analysis used by operational forecasters. Using guidance from operational forecasters, convective available potential energy (CAPE) was determined to be a vital variable in making convective forecasts and is used herein to demonstrate the utility of the AIRS profiles in changing the vertical thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere in the pre-convective and convective environment. CAPE is an important metric because of it is a quantitative measure of atmospheric stability, which is necessary information when forecasting for convective weather. Case studies from the summer of 2010 were examined, and most impact from the AIRS retrieved profiles occurred over the data-void Gulf of Mexico with fields of convective potential closer to the RUC than the CNTL. Mixed results were found when AIRS retrieved profiles were used over land, so more cases need to be examined to determine whether AIRS would be an effective tool over land. Additional analyses of problematic convective forecasts over the Gulf Coast will be needed to determine the operational impact of AIRS. SPoRT eventually plans to transition the AIRS product to select Weather Forecast Office (WFO) partners, pending the outcome of these additional analyses.

Kozlowski, Danielle M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

Watson, Leela R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Method for Obtaining High Time and Spatial Resolution Convective Cloud Top Data for the TTL

A method for obtaining high time and spatial resolution convective cloud top data for the TTL Leonhard Pfister, Eric Jensen, Rei Ueyama, Eliot Atlas, and Maria Navarro Convective systems in the tropics have a maximum in the cloud top altitude distribution of about 13.5 km. However, there is a significant tail to this distribution -- a few percent reach the cold point tropopause (CPT) at 16.5 km, and there has been clear evidence of convective mass deposited as high as 19 km in the tropics. The region between 13.5 km and the cold point tropopause is transitional, between the free tropical troposphere where convective mixing dominates, and the stratosphere where slow upward ascent dominates. In this region (the Tropical Tropopause Layer), convective injection, slow ascent, and mixing from midlatitudes all have similar time scales. So, even though only a few percent of convective systems reach the CPT, convection is important. Space Based Lidar and cloud radar measurements have yielded information about long term average statistical distributions of cloud altitude as a function of location. However, we also need time-dependent cloud top altitude and cloud top potential temperature information, primarily to understand the water vapor and TTL cloud distributions. This is because the effect of convection depends on the local temperature, and on the subsequent temperature history. Time dependent cloud top information is also needed to understand short-lived tracers because cross-isentropic flow is time and space dependent. This paper presents a method of obtaining time and space dependent convective cloud top theta (and altitude) information using 3-hourly geostationary brightness temperature data, coupled with global 3 -hourly rainfall estimates and temperature analyses. We explore different mixing algorithms to obtain the most reasonable agreement with near-simultaneous observations by cloudsat and calipso. Observations of short-lived tracers from ATTREX, coupled with short-term trajectories are used to test the method's accuracy. An important caveat is the ambiguity of evaluating convective cloud top altitudes under from combined cloudsat and calipso measurements.

cold point tropopause (CPT)↗