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NASA NTRS2019

SST Improvements in the NASA GMAO Weather Analysis and Prediction System

It is well known that the sea surface temperature (SST) exhibits a diurnal cycle. Since January 2017, the NASA GMAO's Weather Analysis & Prediction System (https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/weather_prediction/) includes a model for this diurnal cycle, a cool-skin layer and assimilates for skin SST. Data assimilation for the skin SST is carried out along with the 3-D state of the atmosphere, primarily using infrared radiance measurements, that are sensitive to the cool-skin and diurnal warming. In the context of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), this implies that the skin SST from our system is tightly coupled to the overlaying atmosphere and constrained by all the available atmospheric and surface-sensitive observations (in situ and satellite brightness temperatures). Comparisons of the SST diurnal cycle with other SST retrievals (SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible & InfraRed Imager) and AMSR-2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2)) has shown mostly similar diurnal variation, however, the former decays at a faster rate. This poster presents our SST plus atmosphere assimilation methodology, and recent improvements to the skin SST model to address the known issues. Global, hourly estimates of the cool-skin and diurnal warm layer fields would be of interest to the SST retrieval community.

Akella, Santha↗
NASA NTRS2017

GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only trade off is an increased double ITCZ, which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Molod, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS2006

Introduction to MODIS Cloud Products

The Earth's radiative energy balance and hydrological cycle are fundamentally coupled with the distribution and properties of clouds. Therefore, the ability to remotely infer cloud properties and their variation in space and time is crucial for establishing climatologies as a reference for validation of present-day climate models and in assessing future climate change. Remote cloud observations also provide data sets useful for testing and improving cloud model physics, and for assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. The MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagers on the Terra and Aqua Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms provide the capability for globally retrieving these properties using passive solar reflectance and infrared techniques. In addition to providing measurements similar to those offered on a suite of historical operational weather platforms such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), MODIS provides additional spectral and/or spatial resolution in key atmospheric bands, along with on-board calibration, to expand the capability for global cloud property retrievals. The core MODIS operational cloud products include cloud top pressure, thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, particle size, and water path, and are derived globally at spatial resolutions of either 1- or 5-km (referred to as Level-2 or pixel-level products). In addition, the MODIS atmosphere team (collectively providing cloud, aerosol, and clear sky products) produces a combined gridded product (referred to as Level-3) aggregated to a 1 equal-angle grid, available for daily, eight-day, and monthly time periods. The wealth of information available from these products provides critical information for climate studies as well as the continuation and improved understanding of existing satellite-based cloud climatologies derived from heritage instruments. This chapter provides an overview of the MODIS Level-2 and -3 operational cloud products.

Baum, Bryan A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

GEOS S2S-2_1: The GMAO High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was recently released by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution than the previous, (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, and now includes the assimilation of along-track sea surface height. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. Analysis of the ensemble spread shows improvements relative to the previous system, including generally better reliability. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only tradeoff is an increased "double ITCZ", which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Molod, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS2017

Data Assimilation as it Relates to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) and Prospects for Improvement

Improved seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice are important for regional stakeholders, but also for obtaining a better understanding of the Arctic climate system. An important part of the forecasts is the initial sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere initial conditions. I briefly give an overview of the initial conditions currently being used in seasonal sea ice predictions. I also identify available sources of observational data and prospects for coupled atmosphere/ocean reanalyses.

Cullather, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2003

[Development and Use of Hidrosig]

The NASA portion of this joint NSF-NASA grant consists of objective 2 and a part of objective 3. A major effort was made on objective 2, and it consisted of developing a numerical GIs environment called Hidrosig. This major research tool is being developed by the University of Colorado for conducting river-network-based scaling analyses of coupled water-energy-landform-vegetation interactions including water and energy balances, and floods and droughts, at multiple space-time scales.Objective 2: To analyze the relevant remotely sensed products from satellites, radars and ground measurements to compute the transported water mass for each complete Strahler stream using an 'assimilated water balance equation' at daily and other appropriate time scales. This objective requires analysis of concurrent data sets for Precipitation (PPT), Evapotranspiration (ET) and stream flows (Q) on river networks. To solve this major problem, our decision was to develop Hidrosig, a new Open-Source GIs software. A research group in Colombia, South America, developed the first version of Hidrosig, and Ricardo Mantilla was part of this effort as an undergraduate student before joining the graduate program at the University of Colorado in 2001. Hydrosig automatically extracts river networks from large DEMs and creates a "link-based" data structure, which is required to conduct a variety of analyses under objective 2. It is programmed in Java, which is a multi-platform programming language freely distributed by SUN under a GPL license. Some existent commercial tools like Arc-Info, RiverTools and others are not suitable for our purpose for two reasons. First, the source code is not available that is needed to build on the network data structure. Second, these tools use different programming languages that are not most versatile for our purposes. For example, RiverTools uses an IDL platform that is not very efficient for organizing diverse data sets on river networks. Hidrosig establishes a clear data organization framework that allows a simultaneous analysis of spatial fields along river network structures involving Horton- Strahler framework. Software tools for network extraction from DEMs and network-based analysis of geomorphologic and topologic variables were developed during the first year and a part of second year.

Gupta, Vijay K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Earth System Model

The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

Schoeberl, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of the Surface PM2.5 in Version 1 of the NASA MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis over the United States

We use surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) measurements collected by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks as independent validation for Version 1 of the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) developed by the Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO). MERRAero is based on a version of the GEOS-5 model that is radiatively coupled to the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) aerosol module and includes assimilation of bias corrected Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on both Terra and Aqua satellites. By combining the spatial and temporal coverage of GEOS-5 with observational constraints on AOD, MERRAero has the potential to provide improved estimates of PM2.5 compared to the model alone and with greater coverage than available observations.Importantly, assimilation of AOD data constrains the total column aerosol mass in MERRAero subject to assumptions about optical properties for each of the species represented in GOGART. However, single visible wavelength AOD data does not contain sufficient information content to correct errors in either aerosol vertical placement or composition, critical elements for a proper characterization of surface PM2.5. Despite this, we find that the data-assimilation equipped version of GEOS-5 better represents observed PM2.5 between 2003 and 2012 compared to the same version of the model without AOD assimilation. Compared to measurements from the EPA-AQS network, MERRAero shows better PM2.5 agreement with the IMPROVE network measurements, which are composed essentially of rural stations. Regardless the data network, MERRAero PM2.5 are closer to observation values during the summer while larger discrepancies are observed during the winter. Comparing MERRAero to PM2.5 data collected by the Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) offers greater insight on the species MERRAero predicts well and those for which there are biases relative to the EPA observations. Analysis of this speciated data indicates that the lack of nitrate emissions in MERRAero and an underestimation of carbonaceous emissions in the Western US explains much of the reanalysis bias during the winter. To further understand discrepancies between the reanalysis and observations, we use complimentary data to assess two important aspects of MERRAero that are of relevance to the diagnosis of PM2.5, in particular AOD and vertical structure

Air Pollution↗
NASA NTRS2003

Model-Data Assimilation of Internal Waves during ASIAEX-2001

In recent Asian Seas International Acoustics Experiment (ASIAEX), extensive moorings have been deployed around the continental shelf break area in the northeast of South China Sea in May 2001. Simultaneous RADARSAT SAR images have been collected during the field test to integrate with the in-situ measurements from moorings, ship-board sensors, and CTD casts. Besides it provides synoptic information, satellite imagery is very useful for tracking the internal waves, and locating surface fronts and mesoscale features. During ASIAEX in May 2001, many large internal waves were observed at the test area and were the major oceanic features for acoustic volume interaction. Based on the internal wave distribution maps compiled from satellite data, the wave crest can be as long as 200 km with amplitude of 100 m. Environmental parameters have been calculated based on extensive CTD casts data near the ASIAEX area. Nonlinear internal wave models have been applied to integrate and assimilate both SAR and mooring data. Using SAR data in deep water as an initial condition, numerical simulations produce the wave evolution on the continental shelf and compared reasonably well with the mooring measurements at the downstream station. The shoaling, turning, and dissipation of large internal waves on the shelf break, elevation solitons, and wave-wave interaction have been studied and are very important issues for acoustic propagation. The internal wave effects on acoustic modal coupling has been implicated and discussed.

Liu, Antony↗
NASA NTRS2006

Exploring the Production of NOx by Lightning and Its Impact on Tropospheric Ozone

Our quantitative understanding of free tropospheric (FT) chemistry is quite poor. State-of-the-art regional air quality models (e.g., US EPA's CMAQ) perform very poorly in simulating FT chemistry, with Uniform ozone around 70 ppb throughout the FT in summer, while ozonesonde data show much higher levels of ozone and much spatial-temporal structure. Such models completely neglect lightning-NOx (LNOx) emissions (the most significant source of NOx in the FT), and also contain large uncertainties in the specifications of intercontinental transport, stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and PBLFT exchange (PFTE). Global air chemistry models include LNOx, but in very crude fashion, with the frequency and distribution of lightning being based on modeled cloud parameters (hence large uncertainty), lightning energetics being assumed to be constant for all flashes (literature value, while in reality there is at least a two-orders of magnitude variability from flash-to-flash), and the production of NOx in the surrounding heated air, per Joule of heating, being assumed to be constant also (literature value, while in fact it is a non-linear function of the dissipated heat and local air density, p). This situation is commonly blamed on paucity of pertinent observational data, but for the USA, there is now a wealth of surface- and satellite-based data of lightning available to permit much improved observation-based estimation of LNOx emissions. In the FT, such NOx has a long residence time, and also the ozone production efficiency from NOx there is considerably higher than in the PBL. It is, therefore, of critical importance in FT chemistry. This paper will describe the approach and data products of an ongoing NSSTC project aimed at a much-improved quantification of not only LNOx production on the scale of continental USA based on local and regional lightning observations, but also of intercontinental transport, STE and PFTE, all in upgraded simulations of tropospheric transport and chemistry. In our approach for LNOx, (a) we utilize continuous observed lightning information from the NLDN ground network and from satellite imagers (OTD and LIS) to quantify lightning frequency and distribution at the spatial-temporal scales of models such as CMAQ; (b) we develop new methodologies to quantify flash-specific lightning energy dissipation as heat (epsilon) using data from the research-grade lightning measurement facility at NASA-KSC, and to parameterize epsilon based on regional lightning monitoring data (ground- and satellite-based); and, (c) we develop a new parameterization of NOx production as a function of epsilon and rho. Based on such observation-based information, we are working to develop a gridded, episodic LNOx emissions inventory for the USA for use in models like CMAQ. We are also developing approaches for global(MOZART)- regional(CMAQ) chemistry coupling to improve intercontinental transport and STE. Finally, we are developing new methodologies for assimilation of satellite-observed (GOES) clouds into meteorological modeling (MM5), to improve PFTE and to optimize co-location of cloud convection and observed lightning. We will incorporate these improvements in CMAQ simulations over the USA to better understand FT processes and chemistry, and its impact on ground-level ozone.

Gillani, Noor↗
NASA NTRS2013

ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model

In order to have the capability to use satellite data from its own missions to inform future sea-level rise projections, JPL needed a full-fledged ice-sheet/iceshelf flow model, capable of modeling the mass balance of Antarctica and Greenland into the near future. ISSM was developed with such a goal in mind, as a massively parallelized, multi-purpose finite-element framework dedicated to ice-sheet modeling. ISSM features unstructured meshes (Tria in 2D, and Penta in 3D) along with corresponding finite elements for both types of meshes. Each finite element can carry out diagnostic, prognostic, transient, thermal 3D, surface, and bed slope simulations. Anisotropic meshing enables adaptation of meshes to a certain metric, and the 2D Shelfy-Stream, 3D Blatter/Pattyn, and 3D Full-Stokes formulations capture the bulk of the ice-flow physics. These elements can be coupled together, based on the Arlequin method, so that on a large scale model such as Antarctica, each type of finite element is used in the most efficient manner. For each finite element referenced above, ISSM implements an adjoint. This adjoint can be used to carry out model inversions of unknown model parameters, typically ice rheology and basal drag at the ice/bedrock interface, using a metric such as the observed InSAR surface velocity. This data assimilation capability is crucial to allow spinning up of ice flow models using available satellite data. ISSM relies on the PETSc library for its vectors, matrices, and solvers. This allows ISSM to run efficiently on any parallel platform, whether shared or distrib- ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California uted. It can run on the largest clusters, and is fully scalable. This allows ISSM to tackle models the size of continents. ISSM is embedded into MATLAB and Python, both open scientific platforms. This improves its outreach within the science community. It is entirely written in C/C++, which gives it flexibility in its design, and the power/speed that C/C++ allows. ISSM is svn (subversion) hosted, on a JPL repository, to facilitate its development and maintenance. ISSM can also model propagation of rifts using contact mechanics and mesh splitting, and can interface to the Dakota software. To carry out sensitivity analysis, mesh partitioning algorithms are available, based on the Scotch, Chaco, and Metis partitioners that ensure equal area mesh partitions can be done, which are then usable for sampling and local reliability methods.

Larour, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Method for Snow Reanalysis: The Sierra Nevada (USA) Example

This work presents a state-of-the art methodology for constructing snow water equivalent (SWE) reanalysis. The method is comprised of two main components: (1) a coupled land surface model and snow depletion curve model, which is used to generate an ensemble of predictions of SWE and snow cover area for a given set of (uncertain) inputs, and (2) a reanalysis step, which updates estimation variables to be consistent with the satellite observed depletion of the fractional snow cover time series. This method was applied over the Sierra Nevada (USA) based on the assimilation of remotely sensed fractional snow covered area data from the Landsat 5-8 record (1985-2016). The verified dataset (based on a comparison with over 9000 station years of in situ data) exhibited mean and root-mean-square errors less than 3 and 13 cm, respectively, and correlation greater than 0.95 compared with in situ SWE observations. The method (fully Bayesian), resolution (daily, 90-meter), temporal extent (31 years), and accuracy provide a unique dataset for investigating snow processes. This presentation illustrates how the reanalysis dataset was used to provide a basic accounting of the stored snowpack water in the Sierra Nevada over the last 31 years and ultimately improve real-time streamflow predictions.

Bayesian↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimation of Seasonal Snow Water Equivalent Using Landsat Observations

This work presents a methodology for estimating seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) from the use of remotely sensed Visible and Near Infrared observations from the Landsat mission. The method is comprised of two main components: (1) a coupled land surface model and snow depletion curve model, which is used to generate an ensemble of predictions of SWE and snow cover area for a given set of (uncertain) inputs, and (2) a reanalysis step, which updates estimation variables to be consistent with the satellite observed depletion of the fractional snow cover time series. This method was applied over the Sierra Nevada (USA) based on the assimilation of remotely sensed fractional snow covered area data over the Landsat 5-8 record (1985-2016). The verified dataset (based on a comparison with over 9000 station years of in situ data) exhibited mean and root-mean-square errors less than 3 and 13 cm, respectively, and correlations with in situ SWE observations of greater than 0.95. The method (fully Bayesian), resolution (daily, 90-meter), temporal extent (32 years), and accuracy provide a unique dataset for investigating snow processes. In particular, this presentation illustrates how the reanalysis dataset was used to provide climatology of the seasonal snowfall accumulation rates, distributions, and variability over the last three decades.

SWE↗
NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Multidisciplinary Modeling Approach of Plant Gas Exchange in Reduced Gravity Environments

In-situ food production is a necessary step for human exploration of the solar system and requires a deep understanding of plant growth in reduced gravity environments. In particular, the lack of buoyancy-driven convection changes the gas exchange at the leaf surface, which decreases photosynthesis and transpiration rates, and ultimately biomass production. To understand the intricate relations between physical, chemical, and biochemical processes, the following methodology combines the development of a mechanistic model of plant growth in reduced gravity environments, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, and experiments in different time frames.The model presented here is a coupled mass and energy balance using the single round leaf assumption, including gravity as an entry parameter, and the leaf surface temperature as an output variable. Measures of the leaf surface temperature using infra-red cameras allow for a computation of the transpiration rate. This approach was followed to design a parabolic flight experiment, which performed 7 flights, and enabled data collection for model validation in different gravity and ventilation settings on a short time frame. Current measures of carbon assimilation and transpiration rate at the leaf and canopy level using an infra-red gas analyzer (Li-6800) in 1g lab conditions on several species will enable a validation on longer time frames and further calibration of the model. CFD studies both on the parabolic flight and on the lab experimental set-up allow the precise assessment of ventilation above the canopy and plants' leaves.Ultimately, this work will provide recommendations for the design of future plant growth hardware, especially on the lowest adequate ventilation for optimal plant growth in reduced gravity environments, as well as assessing biomass and oxygen production rates on planetary surfaces and space stations. This work was funded by CNES, CNRS, Clermont Auvergne Metropole, and NASA Space Biology through NASA postdoctoral program / USRA.

Poulet, Lucie↗
NASA NTRS2002

Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model parameterizations are needed to ensure that we derive maximum benefits from these observations.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗