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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Non-Electricity Based Renewable Fuels: Theory and Computation for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen

Dominated by photovoltaics and wind, current renewable energy sources generate mostly electricity, but 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels. Therefore, direct solar fuel generation would be a major breakthrough for the energy transition. Solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) is one of the very few potential routes towards scalable renewable fuels, but currently suffers from lack of an oxide working material that could optimally perform energy conversion within the thermodynamic boundary conditions. Theory and computation can contribute in two distinct ways, through materials search and discovery, but also by providing detailed mechanistic models for specific systems so to advance our understanding of possible design strategies. To enable high-throughput materials screening, we developed a defect graph neural network (dGNN) machine learning approach,[1] which accelerates the prediction of defect formation energies by replacing the tedious density functional theory (DFT) supercell calculations for all possible defect sites. This approach enables high-throughput database screening of oxides, which was integrated with thermodynamic modeling to extract the reduction entropies as additional selection criterion for STCH. Once potential candidate materials are identified, detailed models can guide materials design by predicting performance characteristics. One challenge is to quantitatively predict thermochemical equilibria at high concentrations when the redox active defects start to interact with each other, thereby impeding the formation of additional defects. Introducing a model for the free energy of defect interaction, parametrized on the basis of DFT data, we simulated the complete STCH redox cycle for (Sr,Ce)MnO3 alloys, achieving near-quantitative agreement with experimental data.[2] The analysis of these simulations reveals how defect interactions diminish the reduction entropy and H2 yield, suggesting to include these interactions in design considerations. Finally, we revisit the popular van't Hoff method for analyzing reduction enthalpies and entropies. This method is not ideal, as it involves a temperature-dependent convolution of gas-phase and solid-state entropies, causing uncertainties in the same order of magnitude as the physical quantities of interest. To avoid this problem, we suggest a simple alternative approach which can be applied to experimental and simulated data alike.

first-principles calculations↗
DOE OSTI2025

Use of Rig Parameter Data in Bit Constraint Models for Improved Drilling Performance at The Geysers

Surface parameter measurements are routinely used during deep well construction to monitor and guide drilling conditions for improved performance and reduced costs. However, these measurements are of reduced value without a standard to aid in evaluation and decision making. A method is demonstrated whereby drill bit constraint models are used to interpret drilling response parameters. Drill rig parameter data for well GDC-36 at the Geysers Geothermal Field Power were acquired by Geysers Power Company and drilling contractor Kenai Drilling using Pason US DataHub and evaluated. Drilling parameters are evaluated using laboratory-validated rock reduction models for predicting the phenomenological response of drag bits (Detournay and Defourny, 1992) along with other model constraints in computational algorithms. The method is used to evaluate overall bit performance, monitor bit integrity, and detect the presence of drillstring vibrations and other conditions contributing to bit failure; comparisons are made to observations of bit wear and damage. The method will be applied in real-time to improve decision-making on subsequent wells and has applicability to development of advanced analytics on future geothermal wells using real-time electronic drilling recorder (EDR) data for improved performance and reduced drilling costs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards the spatial resolution of metalloprotein charge states by detailed modeling of XFEL crystallographic diffraction

Oxidation states of individual metal atoms within a metalloprotein can be assigned by examining X-ray absorption edges, which shift to higher energy for progressively more positive valence numbers. Indeed, X-ray crystallography is well suited for such a measurement, owing to its ability to spatially resolve the scattering contributions of individual metal atoms that have distinct electronic environments contributing to protein function. However, as the magnitude of the shift is quite small, about +2 eV per valence state for iron, it has only been possible to measure the effect when performed with monochromated X-ray sources at synchrotron facilities with energy resolutions in the range 2–3 × 10 −4 (Δ E / E ). This paper tests whether X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) pulses, which have a broader bandpass (Δ E / E = 3 × 10 −3 ) when used without a monochromator, might also be useful for such studies. The program nanoBragg is used to simulate serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) diffraction images with sufficient granularity to model the XFEL spectrum, the crystal mosaicity and the wavelength-dependent anomalous scattering factors contributed by two differently charged iron centers in the 110-amino-acid protein, ferredoxin. Bayesian methods are then used to deduce, from the simulated data, the most likely X-ray absorption curves for each metal atom in the protein, which agree well with the curves chosen for the simulation. The data analysis relies critically on the ability to measure the incident spectrum for each pulse, and also on the nanoBragg simulator to predict the size, shape and intensity profile of Bragg spots based on an underlying physical model that includes the absorption curves, which are then modified to produce the best agreement with the simulated data. This inference methodology potentially enables the use of SFX diffraction for the study of metalloenzyme mechanisms and, in general, offers a more detailed approach to Bragg spot data reduction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gray-Box Modeling for Distribution Systems With Inverter-Based Resources: Integrating Physics-Based and Data-Driven Approaches

Here, in this paper, we develop a novel gray-box modeling approach for distribution systems with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The proposed gray-box modeling method aims to improve estimation accuracy by taking advantages of both physics-based (white-box) and data-driven (black-box) modeling approaches. To this end, we utilize partial physical knowledge of the system, including the inverters’ structures and control diagrams, as well as the equivalent network model simplified through Kron reduction. The white-box model containing unknown parameters is then constructed with mathematical equations and an optimization-based method is subsequently employed to identify these unknown parameters within the white-box model. Next, the graybox modeling framework is then constructed by embedding the output variables of the white-box model into the input vector of a black-box model (represented using a neural network). Finally, the black-box section is trained using the collected input-output datasets and the gray-box model is then obtained. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate that our gray-box modeling approach effectively improves estimation accuracy compared to purely physics-based or data-driven methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Step-Down Test Procedure for Wavelet Shrinkage Using Bootstrapping

Wavelet thresholding (or shrinkage) attempts to remove the noises existing in the signals while preserving inherent pattern characteristics in the reconstruction of true signals. For data-denoising purpose, we present a new wavelet thresholding procedure which employs the step-down testing idea of identifying active contrasts in unreplicated fractional factorial experiments. The proposed method employs bootstrapping methods to a step-down test for thresholding wavelet coefficients. By introducing the concept of a false discovery error rate in testing wavelet coefficients, we shrink the wavelet coefficients with p -values higher than the error rate. The error rate controls the expected proportion of wrongly accepted coefficients among chosen wavelet coefficients. Bootstrap samples are used to approximate the p -value for computational efficiency. We also present some guidelines for selecting the values of hyper-parameters which affect the performance in the step-down thresholding procedure. Based on some common testing signals and an air-conditioner sounds example, the comparison of our proposed procedure with other thresholding methods in the literature is performed. The analytical results show that the proposed procedure has a potential in data-denoising and data-reduction in a variety of signal reconstruction applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Method for Estimating Time-Series PV Production Loss From Solar Tracking Failures

Solar tracking system failures can dramatically reduce photovoltaic (PV) system energy output through suboptimal irradiance capture and self-shading loss. Detecting tracker failures is not always straightforward; unlike other common PV system failures like inverter outages and blown fuses which take portions of a system completely offline, tracker failures only partially reduce output power and can go unnoticed as a result. Additionally, tracker failures can take one of several forms, each with their own loss characteristics. Here we present two methods of detecting tracker failure events from time-series production data and a method for estimating the associated production loss. Compared with existing detection methods, the proposed power-based detection method showed 0-17% reductions in Type I error rate depending on weather conditions. Here, the loss model estimated production loss with low error (mean bias error = -2.3 %, root-mean-squared error = 6%) in a rudimentary validation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance of optical sensors for cloud measurements deployed by the ARM Aerial Facility during ACE-ENA

During the Aerosol and Cloud Experiment in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA), a variety of in situ optical sensors using shadow imaging, scattering and holography were deployed by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility to determine cloud properties. Taking advantage of the wide, overlapping range of instrumentation, we compare in situ cloud data from several different measurement methods for droplets up to 100 µm. Further, data processing was tailored to the encountered conditions, leading to good agreement. Improvements include noise reduction for holography and better out-of-focus correction for shadow imaging. Comparison between direct liquid water content measurements and optical sensors showed better agreement at higher droplet number concentrations (>120/cm 3 ).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forward sensitivity approach for estimating eddy viscosity closures in nonlinear model reduction

In this paper, we propose a variational approach to estimate eddy viscosity using forward sensitivity method (FSM) for closure modeling in nonlinear reduced order models. FSM is a data assimilation technique that blends model's predictions with noisy observations to correct initial state and/or model parameters. We apply this approach on a projection based reduced order model (ROM) of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation with a square wave defining a moving shock, and the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation formulating a decay of Kraichnan turbulence. We investigate the capability of the approach to approximate an optimal value for eddy viscosity with different measurement configurations. Specifically, we show that our approach can sufficiently assimilate information either through full field or sparse noisy measurements to estimate eddy viscosity closure to cure standard Galerkin reduced order model (GROM) predictions. Therefore, our approach provides a modular framework to correct forecasting error from a sparse observational network on a latent space. We highlight that the proposed GROM-FSM framework is promising for emerging digital twin applications, where real-time sensor measurements can be used to update and optimize surrogate model's parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distinguishing isotropic and anisotropic signals for X-ray total scattering using machine learning

Understanding structure–property relationships is essential for advancing technologies based on thin films. X-ray pair distribution function (PDF) analysis can access relevant atomic structure details spanning local-, mid- and long-range structure. While X-ray PDF has been adapted for thin films on amorphous substrates, measurements on single-crystal substrates are necessary to accurately determine structure origins for some thin film materials, especially those for which the substrate changes the accessible structure and properties. However, when measuring films on single-crystal substrates, high-intensity anisotropic Bragg spots saturate 2D detector images, overshadowing the thin films' isotropic scattering signal. This renders previous data processing methods for films on amorphous substrates unsuitable for films on single-crystal substrates. To address this measurement need, we developed IsoDAT2D, an innovative data processing approach using unsupervised machine learning algorithms. The program combines dimensionality reduction and clustering algorithms to separate thin film and single-crystal substrate X-ray scattering signals. We use SimDAT2D , a program we developed to generate simulated thin film data, to validate IsoDAT2D . Here we also use IsoDAT2D to isolate X-ray total scattering signal from a thin film on a single-crystal substrate. The resulting PDF data are compared with similar data processed using previous methods, especially substrate subtraction for single-crystal and amorphous substrates. PDF data from IsoDAT2D -identified X-ray total scattering data are significantly better than from single-crystal substrate subtraction, but not as reliable as PDF data from amorphous substrate subtraction. With IsoDAT2D , there are new opportunities to expand PDF to a wider variety of thin films, including those on single-crystal substrates, with which new structure–property relationships can be elucidated to enable fundamental understanding and technological advances.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Signatures of enhanced superconducting properties in niobium cavities

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) niobium cavities are critical for modern particle accelerators, as well as for advancing superconducting quantum systems and enabling ultrasensitive searches for new physics. In this work, we report a systematic observation of an anomalous frequency dip in Nb cavities, which occurs at temperatures just below the critical temperature (𝑇𝑐 ), indicative of enhanced superconducting properties at 𝑇 ≪ 𝑇 𝑐 . The magnitude of this dip is strongly correlated with the rf surface resistance, impurity distribution near the surface, and 𝑇𝑐 . Additionally, we report measurements of the coherence peak in the ac conductivity of two Nb SRF cavities processed using distinct methods. By comparing recent theories developed to model this experimental data, we show that the frequency-dip feature, larger coherence peak height, and reduction in the temperature-dependent surface resistance with rf current occur at minimal but finite levels of disorder.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Filtered Multi-Tone Spread Spectrum With Overlapping Subbands

A new form of the filter bank multi-carrier spread spectrum (FBMC-SS) waveform is presented. This new waveform modifies the filtered multi-tone spread spectrum (FMT-SS) system, and is intended to whiten the power spectral density (PSD) of the transmit signal. In the conventional FMT-SS, subcarrier bands are non-overlapping, leaving a spectral null between the adjacent subcarrier bands. To make FMT-SS more appealing for a broader set of applications than those studied in the past, we propose adding additional subcarriers centered at these nulls and thoroughly explore the impact of the added subcarriers on the system performance. This modified form of FMT-SS is referred to as overlapped FMT-SS (OFMT-SS). We explore the conditions required for maximally flattening the PSD of the synthesized OFMT-SS signal and for cancelling the interference caused by overlapping subbands. We also explore the choices of spreading gains that result in a low peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) for a number of different scenarios. Further reduction of the PAPR of the synthesized signal through clipping methods is also explored. Additionally, we propose methods of multi-coding for increasing the data rate of the OFMT-SS waveform, while minimally impacting its PAPR.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 99% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Regional PV Spinning Reserve Estimator with AGC Look-Ahead Windows: Preprint

Curtailed PV generation is a zero-marginal cost spinning reserve that can be used for a number of active power control services. However, unlike the traditional spinning reserve providers, i.e., fossil-fueled generators, who have well-defined operating characteristics, e.g., available headroom or potential high limit (PHL), PV plants have by nature variable and uncertain operating characteristics. To ensure the effective coordination between PV plants and the system operator during an active power control event, accurate forecasts of the PV PHL are essential. A novel reference-control grouping based scaling method has been proposed by NREL to estimate the PV PHL in real-time. This work further enhances the methodology by: 1) improving the model accuracy through machine learning; 2) considering look-ahead windows introduced by the computation and communication latencies; 3) applying the method to regional spinning reserve estimation. A significant performance improvement, over 1.6% of estimation error reduction, has been observed based on real-world data collected by CAISO and PV plant operators.

potential high limit↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO 2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO 2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO 2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO 2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

System and method for high dynamic range waveform digitization

Diverse applications from particle physics experiments to lidar are driving cost and current reduction in giga-hertz sampling rate high-resolution data conversion. Multiple imagers captures a single pixel of data and require processing at very high speed. High-bandwidth high-rate signal sampling, analog-to-digital conversion, and transfer of large amounts of data to a digital data acquisition block are required in such systems. Dynamic range, power consumption, and transfer of high-speed, high-bit width data are key implementation challenges. Data acquisition architectures optimized for specific requirements of such systems may facilitate system implementation and reduce overall system cost.

Mostafanezhad, Isar↗
DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lossy checkpoint compression in full waveform inversion: a case study with ZFPv0.5.5 and the overthrust model

This paper proposes a new method that combines checkpointing methods with error-controlled lossy compression for large-scale high-performance full-waveform inversion (FWI), an inverse problem commonly used in geophysical exploration. This combination can significantly reduce data movement, allowing a reduction in run time as well as peak memory. In the exascale computing era, frequent data transfer (e.g., memory bandwidth, PCIe bandwidth for GPUs, or network) is the performance bottleneck rather than the peak FLOPS of the processing unit. Like many other adjoint-based optimization problems, FWI is costly in terms of the number of floating-point operations, large memory footprint during backpropagation, and data transfer overheads. Past work for adjoint methods has developed checkpointing methods that reduce the peak memory requirements during backpropagation at the cost of additional floating-point computations. Combining this traditional checkpointing with error-controlled lossy compression, we explore the three-way tradeoff between memory, precision, and time to solution. We investigate how approximation errors introduced by lossy compression of the forward solution impact the objective function gradient and final inverted solution. Empirical results from these numerical experiments indicate that high lossy-compression rates (compression factors ranging up to 100) have a relatively minor impact on convergence rates and the quality of the final solution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗