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Papers address the following topics: NASA's project management development process; Better decisions through structural analysis; NASA's commercial technology management system; Today's management techniques and tools; Program control in NASA - needs and opportunities; and Resources for NASA managers.
We have developed a new method for nondestructive instrument method to monitor the health of a bridge. This new method is based on a transient test load and simple data collection. The nuclear of the method is the new invented nonstationary and nonlinear time series analysis method, the Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert Spectral Analysis. The final decision on the health of the bridge structure is based on the nonlinear characteristic of the data, and on the comparison between the free and the forced vibration frequencies. Thus this alternative method enjoys many advantages: (1) no a priori data required, (2) simple data collection, and (3) minimum traffic disruption. Results from a case study of the Shing-Nan Bridge in Hou-Wei will be reported.
Results are presented in an initial apriori knowledge approach toward using complementary multi-sensor multi-temporal imagery in characterizing vegetated landscapes over a site in the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS). Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data were segmented using multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis and binary decision tree approaches. Individual date/sensor land cover maps had overall accuracies between 55.0% - 69.8%. The best eight land cover layers from all dates and sensors correctly characterized 79.3% of the cover types. An overlay approach was used to create a final land cover map. An overall accuracy of 71.3% was achieved in this multi-sensor approach, a 1.5% improvement over our most accurate single scene technique, but 8% less than the original input. Black spruce was evaluated to be particularly undermapped in the final map possibly because it was also contained within jack pine and muskeg land coverages.
Adaptive automation (AA) has been explored as a solution to the problems associated with human-automation interaction in supervisory control environments. However, research has focused on the performance effects of dynamic control allocations of early stage sensory and information acquisition functions. The present research compares the effects of AA to the entire range of information processing stages of human operators, such as air traffic controllers. The results provide evidence that the effectiveness of AA is dependent on the stage of task performance (human-machine system information processing) that is flexibly automated. The results suggest that humans are better able to adapt to AA when applied to lower-level sensory and psychomotor functions, such as information acquisition and action implementation, as compared to AA applied to cognitive (analysis and decision-making) tasks. The results also provide support for the use of AA, as compared to completely manual control. These results are discussed in terms of implications for AA design for aviation.
As the world becomes smaller, the importance of global education increases. Technological advancements have made news instantaneous. The advent of the Internet has made contact with another part of the world just a click away. Such achievements have put pressure on educational institutions to prepare students for the global community in which they already live. !~ey must not only ~e taug~~ about the world and the interactions among countries, but also, how the decIsions are made which facillta~e. these interactions and what factors might contribute to the chain reactions which might erupt from such declsl?n~. It is critical that students learn the skills of decision-making and analysis in order to be able to operate Within a world where threats and crises abound. As tomorrow's leaders, today's students must be exposed to the global world and its mechanisms and learn the tools to navigate within it.
This paper evaluates the use of precipitable water (PW) from Global Positioning System (GPS) in lightning prediction. Additional independent verification of an earlier model is performed. This earlier model used binary logistic regression with the following four predictor variables optimally selected from a candidate list of 23 candidate predictors: the current precipitable water value for a given time of the day, the change in GPS-PW over the past 9 hours, the KIndex, and the electric field mill value. This earlier model was not optimized for any specific forecast interval, but showed promise for 6 hour and 1.5 hour forecasts. Two new models were developed and verified. These new models were optimized for two operationally significant forecast intervals. The first model was optimized for the 0.5 hour lightning advisories issued by the 45th Weather Squadron. An additional 1.5 hours was allowed for sensor dwell, communication, calculation, analysis, and advisory decision by the forecaster. Therefore the 0.5 hour advisory model became a 2 hour forecast model for lightning within the 45th Weather Squadron advisory areas. The second model was optimized for major ground processing operations supported by the 45th Weather Squadron, which can require lightning forecasts with a lead-time of up to 7.5 hours. Using the same 1.5 lag as in the other new model, this became a 9 hour forecast model for lightning within 37 km (20 NM)) of the 45th Weather Squadron advisory areas. The two new models were built using binary logistic regression from a list of 26 candidate predictor variables: the current GPS-PW value, the change of GPS-PW over 0.5 hour increments from 0.5 to 12 hours, and the K-index. The new 2 hour model found the following for predictors to be statistically significant, listed in decreasing order of contribution to the forecast: the 0.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the 7.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the current GPS-PW value, and the KIndex. The new 9 hour forecast model found the following five independent variables to be statistically significant, listed in decreasing order of contribution to the forecast: the current GPSPW value, the 8.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the 3.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the 12 hour change in GPS-PW, and the K-Index. In both models, the GPS-PW parameters had better correlation to the lightning forecast than the K-Index, a widely used thunderstorm index. Possible future improvements to this study are discussed.
An overview regarding NASA Ames Advanced Computing Systems. This presentation will discuss the modeling, simulation, analysis, and decision-making in relation to the Advanced Computing Systems.
An overview regarding NASA Ames Advanced Computing Systems. This presentation will discuss themodeling, simulation, analysis, and decision-making in relation to the Advanced Computing Systems.
A large fraction of safety incidents occurs on the ground during airport surface operations. Although these incidents are mostly non-fatal with a few exceptions, they are high profile incidents that remain a source of concern for the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), major airlines, and other stakeholders of the National Airspace System (NAS). These incidents have historically been mitigated by implementing changes to regulations, policies, and procedures over time. This approach has minimized but not eliminated the risk of occurrences. It is thus important to develop integrated techniques to assess, model, and prevent these incidents by analyzing the risk and likelihood of occurrence and communicating results of the analysis to decision-making personnel who can mitigate and prevent incidents in real time. The research presented in this report builds on prior work of researchers at the NASA Ames Research Center who developed an automated framework, Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM), to enable monitoring and prediction of the safety of the NAS. In the RTSM framework, hazards to flight are translated to safety metrics such as wake vortex encounters or loss of separation, that can be modeled and analyzed offline and also predicted and monitored in real time (online). The intent of this report is to integrate predictable incidents that occur during surface and ground operations into the safety portfolio of the RTSM project by (i) identifying suitable information sources from which ground incidents can be studied, (ii) developing safety metrics correlated with surface operations, and (iii) recommending suitable data sources that can be quantified and used for the computation of pertinent safety metrics.
A large fraction of safety incidents occurs on the ground during airport surface operations. Although these incidents are mostly non-fatal with a few exceptions, they are high profile incidents that remain a source of concern for the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), major airlines, and other stakeholders of the National Airspace System (NAS). These incidents have historically been mitigated by implementing changes to regulations, policies, and procedures over time. This approach has minimized but not eliminated the risk of occurrence of safety incidents. It is thus important to develop integrated techniques to assess, model, and prevent these incidents by analyzing the risk and likelihood of occurrence and communicating results of the analysis to decision-making personnel who can mitigate and prevent incidents in real time. The work presented in this paper builds on a previously developed architecture for safety, Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM), to enable monitoring and prediction of the safety of the NAS. In the RTSM framework, hazards to flight are translated to safety metrics such as wake vortex encounters or loss of separation, that can be modeled and analyzed offline and also predicted and monitored in real time (online). The intent of this paper is to integrate predictable incidents that occur during surface and ground operations into the safety portfolio of the RTSM project by (i) identifying suitable information sources from which ground incidents can be studied, (ii) developing safety metrics correlated with surface operations, and (iii) recommending suitable data sources that can be quantified and used for the computation of pertinent safety metrics.
Ocean color satellite measurements have yielded valuable information about the base of the marine food web for over 20 years. The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission is building an advanced spectrometer to further refine ecosystem monitoring. Higher spectral resolution data from PACE will enable identification of additional marine biological indicators and their response to multiple stressors to guide sustainable management. Seafood is an important source of protein for a significant number of people. Wild catches cannot match increasing demand and their sustainability is in question. Aquaculture is an ever more important industry to feed the world's population. We share early efforts to engage a community of practice around food security to increase satellite data product use in support of resource management, business decisions, and policy analysis. Understanding the needs of applied scientists as well as non-traditional users of satellite data early in the PACE mission process will improve planning and preparation for a broader user base and hopefully help to mitigate food insecurity.
Worldwide there is much e ort being directed towards the development of a framework of air- worthiness regulations for remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS). It is now broadly accepted that regulations should have a strong foundation in, and traceability to, the management of the safety risks. Existing risk models for RPAS operations do not provide a simple means for incorporating the wide range of technical and operational controls into the risk analysis and evaluation processes. This paper describes a new approach for modelling and evaluating the risks associated with RPAS operations near populous areas based on the barrier bow tie (BBT) model. A BBT model is used to structure the underlying risk management problem. The model focuses risk analysis, evaluation, and decision making activities on the devices, people, and processes that can be employed to reduce risk. The BBT model and a comprehensive set of example risk controls are presented. The general model can be applied to any RPAS operation. The foundations for quantitative and qualitative assessments using a BBT model are also presented. The modelling and evaluation framework is illustrated through its application to a case-study rotary wing RPAS for two operational scenarios. The model can be used as a basis for determining airworthiness certification requirements for RPAS.
The Mojave Volatiles Prospector (MVP) project is a science-driven field program with the goal to produce critical knowledge for conducting robotic exploration of the Moon. MVP will feed science, payload, and operational lessons learned to the development of a real-time, short-duration lunar polar volatiles prospecting mission. MVP achieves these goals through a simulated lunar rover mission to investigate the composition and distribution of surface and subsurface volatiles in a natural and a priori unknown environment within the Mojave Desert, improving our understanding of how to find, characterize, and access volatiles on the Moon. The MVP field site is the Mojave Desert, selected for its low, naturally occurring water abundance. The Mojave typically has on the order of 2-6% water, making it a suitable lunar analog for this field test. MVP uses the Near Infrared and Visible Spectrometer Subsystem (NIRVSS), Neutron Spectrometer Subsystem (NSS), and a downward facing GroundCam camera on the KREX-2 rover to investigate the relationship between the distribution of volatiles and soil crust variation. Through this investigation, we mature robotic in situ instruments and concepts of instrument operations, improve ground software tools for real time science, and carry out publishable research on the water cycle and its connection to geomorphology and mineralogy in desert environments. A lunar polar rover mission is unlike prior space missions and requires a new concept of operations. The rover must navigate 3-5 km of terrain and examine multiple sites in in just ~6 days. Operational decisions must be made in real time, requiring constant situational awareness, data analysis and rapid turnaround decision support tools. This presentation will focus on the first science results and operational architecture findings from the MVP field deployment relevant to a lunar polar rover mission.
With the advancement of space hardware technologies such as smaller spacecraft, component and instrument miniaturization and high performance space processors, and with the advancement of software technologies in artificial intelligence, big data analysis and autonomous decision making, Earth Science is looking at novel ways to observe phenomena that previously could not have been studied or would have been too expensive to study with traditional missions. In particular, the New Observing Strategies (NOS) component of the NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program aims at leveraging these novel technologies as well as low cost and easy access to space to acquire multi-temporal or simultaneous multi-angular, multi-locations, multi-resolution and multi-spectral observations that will provide better multi-source measurements and will build a more dynamic and comprehensive picture of Earth Science phenomena that need to be studied and analyzed. For applications such as water resources management, air quality monitoring, biodiversity studies or disaster management, NOS will integrate the use of small instruments, small spacecraft, constellations of spacecraft and networks of sensors to design new missions that will provide the necessary measurements to improve future forecast and science modeling systems.Measurement acquisition will therefore be approached as a system of systems rather than on a mission basis, and a system of this complexity should not be expected to work without full integration and experimental characterization. Although most of the individual technologies enabling to link and coordinate multi-source observations are more or less mature, a few technologies need to be developed and all of them need to be integrated and tested as a system. In order for this validation to occur, the AIST Program is developing the NOS Testbed that includes 3 main goals:1.Validate novel NOS technologies, independently and as a system2.Demonstrate novel distributed operations concepts3.Socialize new Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) and SensorWeb (SW) technologies and concepts to the science community by significantly retiring the risk of integrating these new technologies.The NOS Testbed will consist of multiple sensing nodes, simulated or actual, representing space, air and/or ground measurements, that are interconnected by a communications fabric (infrastructure that permits nodes to transmit and receive data between one another and interact with each other). Each node will be supported by hardware capabilities required to perform nodes monitoring and command & control, as well as intelligent "onboard" computing. The nodes will work together in a collaborative manner to demonstrate optimal science capabilities. The testbed will enable to validate technologies such as inter-node communication models, techniques and protocols; inter-node coordination; real-time data fusion and understanding; planning; sensor re-targeting; etc. Additionally, the testbed will have the capability to interact with various mission design tools, OSSEs and one or several forecast models. More details about the NOS Testbed will be presented at the confererence.
External interaction:The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission will include a hyperspectral imaging radiometer to advance ecosystem monitoring beyond heritage retrievals of the concentration of surface chlorophyll and other traditional ocean color variables, offering potential for novel science and applications. PACE is the first NASA ocean color mission to occur under the agency's new and evolving effort to directly engage practical end users prior to satellite launch to increase adoption of this freely available data toward societal challenges. Here we describe early efforts to engage a community of practice around marine food-related resource management, business decisions, and policy analysis. Obviously one satellite cannot meet diverse end user needs at all scales and locations, but understanding downstream needs helps in the assessment of information gaps and planning how to optimize the unique strengths of PACE data in combination with the strengths of other satellite retrievals, in situ measurements, and models. Higher spectral resolution data from PACE can be fused with information from satellites with higher spatial or temporal resolution, plus other information, to enable identification and tracking of new marine biological indicators to guide sustainable management. Accounting for the needs of applied researchers as well as non-traditional users of satellite data early in the PACE mission process will ultimately serve to broaden the base of informed users and facilitate faster adoption of the most advanced science and technology toward the challenge of mitigating food insecurity.
This paper investigates the oversimplification of the inherently complex systems engineering process in space life support. The standard systems engineering process steps are described. The International Space Station (ISS) life support system is explained with its goals and performance criteria. Although it is not usually emphasized, the essential function of developing a hierarchy of systems and subsystems is to simplify the design process. The System Complexity Metric (SCM) shows how this di-vide-and-conquer approach also reduces the system complexity. The complete systems engineering process has many detailed steps. It is often simplified because of the effort required and the human limitations on working memory and decision span. Systems analysis demands slow, logical, and fo-cused thinking but is often bypassed in favor of quick, intuitive, subconscious “gut feel.” A study of 100 system designs found examples of 12 specific mental mistakes, such as ignoring stakeholder needs, and these mistakes are essentially oversimplifications of the systems engineering process. An analysis of space life support goals, options, criteria, and processes found 11 examples of oversimplifications in systems engineering, such as neglecting safety and cost. All these 11 oversimplifications could be traced to one or more of the 12 previously identified mental mistakes or other well-known ones, such as ig-noring sunk costs. Oversimplification of the systems engineering process is rarely noticed but is a common and harmful problem. A study of failures in 50 different space systems found that problems in systems engineering caused failures and often led to errors in design, development, and test that further contributed to failure. It seems that more diligent systems engineering could prevent many project problems and failures, but projects seem to be more guided by “gut feel” based on tradition, authority, and consensus than on the logical, rational systems engineering approach.
Traditionally, the transportation system’s resiliency to the impacts of weather is an area where neglected or incorrect assumptions can lead to difficulties later in the research and development lifecycle. To mitigate this, NASA has ongoing efforts to develop a set of research roadmaps for organizing, integrating, and communicating research into new aviation infrastructure and transportation modalities, within which weather is being addressed early on. An effort has been undertaken to add weather assumptions and requirements to an already-existing roadmap for the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) airspace, seeking to integrate weather requirements early in the system design. This effort addresses the way in which state-of-the art and evolving weather science and technology can enable safe and efficient travel with increasing tempo of UAM operations over time. This paper describes the addition of weather as one of 10 capabilities into the UAM Airspace research roadmap, laying out the anticipated weather technology and information requirements needed to facilitate operations at various UAM Maturity Levels. The process developed and exercised by MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers produced 41 unique requirements to be satisfied by a Weather capability for the UAM ecosystem, with more than 300 dependencies identified across the system. These requirements cover measurement, analysis, modeling, forecasting, decision support, dissemination, and overarching policy, and are provided with an overview of weather challenges for UAM. The requirements were mainly defined based on subject matter expert review of existing UAM Airspace system requirements, and refined based on iterative feedback with various stakeholders including regulators, academia, and industry. Going forward, this roadmap will help researchers and developers align to a common vision in ensuring that weather is appropriately considered in the UAM ecosystem.
Traditionally, the transportation system’s resiliency to the impacts of weather is an area where neglected or incorrect assumptions can lead to difficulties later in the research and development lifecycle. To mitigate this, NASA has ongoing efforts to develop a set of research roadmaps for organizing, integrating, and communicating research into new aviation infrastructure and transportation modalities, within which weather is being addressed early on. An effort has been undertaken to add weather assumptions and requirements to an already-existing roadmap for the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) airspace, seeking to integrate weather requirements early in the system design. This effort addresses the way in which state-of-the art and evolving weather science and technology can enable safe and efficient travel with increasing tempo of UAM operations over time. This paper describes the addition of weather as one of 10 capabilities into the UAM Airspace research roadmap, laying out the anticipated weather technology and information requirements needed to facilitate operations at various UAM Maturity Levels. The process developed and exercised by MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers produced 41 unique requirements to be satisfied by a Weather capability for the UAM ecosystem, with more than 300 dependencies identified across the system. These requirements cover measurement, analysis, modeling, forecasting, decision support, dissemination, and overarching policy, and are provided with an overview of weather challenges for UAM. The requirements were mainly defined based on subject matter expert review of existing UAM Airspace system requirements, and refined based on iterative feedback with various stakeholders including regulators, academia, and industry. Going forward, this roadmap will help researchers and developers align to a common vision in ensuring that weather is appropriately considered in the UAM ecosystem.