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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2004

The Airline Quality Rating 2004

The Airline Quality Rating (AQR) was developed and first announced in early 1991 as an objective method of comparing airline quality on combined multiple performance criteria. This current report, the Airline Quality Rating 2004, reflects monthly Airline Quality Rating scores for 2003. AQR scores for the calendar year 2003 are based on 15 elements in four major areas that focus on airline performance aspects important to air travel consumers. The Airline Quality Rating 2004 is a summary of month-by-month quality ratings for U.S. airlines that have at least 1 % of domestic passenger volume during 2003. Using the Airline Quality Rating system of weighted averages and monthly performance data in the areas of on-time arrivals, involuntary denied boardings, mishandled baggage, and a combination of 12 customer complaint categories, airlines comparative performance for the calendar year of 2003 is reported. This research monograph contains a brief summary of the AQR methodology, detailed data and charts that track comparative quality for domestic airline operations for the 12-month period of 2003, and industry results. Also, comparative Airline Quality Rating data for 2002 are included, where available, to provide historical perspective regarding performance quality in the industry.

Fink, Mary M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Airline Quality Rating 2004

The Airline Quality Rating (AQR) was developed and first announced in early 1991 as an objective method of comparing airline quality on combined multiple performance criteria. This current report, the Airline Quality Rating 2004, reflects monthly Airline Quality Rating scores for 2003. AQR scores far the calendar year 2003 are based on 15 elemnts in four major areas that focus on airline performance aspects important to air travel consumers. The Airline Quality Rating 2004 is a summary of month-by-month quality ratings for U.S. airlines that have at least 1% of domestic passenger volume during 2003. Using the Airline Quality Rating system of weighted averages and monthly performance data in the areas of on-time arrivals, involuntary denied boardings, mishandled baggage, and a combination of 12 customer complaint categories, airlines comparative performance for the calendar year of 2003 is reported. This research monograph contains a brief summary of the AQR methodology, detailed data and charts that track comparative quality for domestic airline operations for the 12-month period of 2003, and industry results. Also, comparative Airline Quality Rating data for 2002 are included, where available, to provide historical perspective

Bowen, Brent D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The NASA Bed Rest Project

NASA s National Vision for Space Exploration includes human travel beyond low earth orbit and the ultimate safe return of the crews. Crucial to fulfilling the vision is the successful and timely development of countermeasures for the adverse physiological effects on human systems caused by long term exposure to the microgravity environment. Limited access to in-flight resources for the foreseeable future increases NASA s reliance on ground-based analogs to simulate these effects of microgravity. The primary analog for human based research will be head-down bed rest. By this approach NASA will be able to evaluate countermeasures in large sample sizes, perform preliminary evaluations of proposed in-flight protocols and assess the utility of individual or combined strategies before flight resources are requested. In response to this critical need, NASA has created the Bed Rest Project at the Johnson Space Center. The Project establishes the infrastructure and processes to provide a long term capability for standardized domestic bed rest studies and countermeasure development. The Bed Rest Project design takes a comprehensive, interdisciplinary, integrated approach that reduces the resource overhead of one investigator for one campaign. In addition to integrating studies operationally relevant for exploration, the Project addresses other new Vision objectives, namely: 1) interagency cooperation with the NIH allows for Clinical Research Center (CRC) facility sharing to the benefit of both agencies, 2) collaboration with our International Partners expands countermeasure development opportunities for foreign and domestic investigators as well as promotes consistency in approach and results, 3) to the greatest degree possible, the Project also advances research by clinicians and academia alike to encourage return to earth benefits. This paper will describe the Project s top level goals, organization and relationship to other Exploration Vision Projects, implementation strategy, address Project deliverables, schedules and provide a status of bed rest campaigns presently underway.

Rhodes, Bradley↗
NASA NTRS1978

Solar Hot Water Heater

The solar panels pictured below, mounted on a Moscow, Idaho home, are part of a domestic hot water heating system capable of providing up to 100 percent of home or small business hot water needs. Produced by Lennox Industries Inc., Marshalltown, Iowa, the panels are commercial versions of a collector co-developed by NASA. In an effort to conserve energy, NASA has installed solar collectors at a number of its own facilities and is conducting research to develop the most efficient systems. Lewis Research Center teamed with Honeywell Inc., Minneapolis, Minnesota to develop the flat plate collector shown. Key to the collector's efficiency is black chrome coating on the plate developed for use on spacecraft solar cells, the coating prevents sun heat from "reradiating," or escaping outward. The design proved the most effective heat absorber among 23 different types of collectors evaluated in a Lewis test program. The Lennox solar domestic hot water heating system has three main components: the array of collectors, a "solar module" (blue unit pictured) and a conventional water heater. A fluid-ethylene glycol and water-is circulated through the collectors to absorb solar heat. The fluid is then piped to a double-walled jacket around a water tank within the solar module.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2010

Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL): Potential Impact on Air Traffic Operations

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating technological and operational concepts for introducing Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL) aircraft into a future US National Airspace System (NAS) civil aviation environment. CESTOL is an aircraft design concept for future use to increase capacity and reduce emissions. CESTOL provides very flexible takeoff, climb, descent and landing performance capabilities and a high-speed cruise capability. In support of NASA, this study is a preliminary examination of the potential operational impact of CESTOL on airport and airspace capacity and delay. The study examines operational impacts at a subject site, Newark Liberty Intemational Airport (KEWR), New Jersey. The study extends these KEWR results to estimate potential impacts on NAS-wide network traffic operations due to the introduction of CESTOL at selected major airports. These are the 34 domestic airports identified in the Federal Aviation Administration's Operational Evolution Plan (OEP). The analysis process uses two fast-time simulation tools to separately model local and NAS-wide air traffic operations using predicted flight schedules for a 24-hour study period in 2016. These tools are the Sen sis AvTerminal model and NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). We use both to simulate conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed-with-conventional-aircraft operations. Both tools apply 4-dimension trajectory modeling to simulate individual flight movement. The study applies AvTerminal to model traffic operations and procedures for en route and terminal arrival and departures to and from KEWR. These AvTerminal applications model existing arrival and departure routes and profiles and runway use configurations, with the assumption jet-powered, large-sized civil CESTOL aircraft use a short runway and standard turboprop arrival and departure procedures. With these rules, the conventional jet and CESTOL aircraft are procedurally separated from each other geographically and in altitude during tenninal airspace approach and departure operations, and each use a different arrival runway. AvTeminal implements its unique Focal-point Scheduling Process to sequence, space and delay aircraft to resolve spacing and overtake conflicts among flights in the airspace and airport system serving KEWR. This Process effectively models integrated arrival and departure operations. AvTerminal assesses acceptance rates and delay magnitude and causality at selected locations, including en route outer boundary fixes, tenninal airspace arrival and departure boundary fixes, terminal airspace arrival merge and departure diverge fixes, and runway landing and takeoff runways. The analysis compares the resulting capacity impacts, flight delays and delay sources between CESTOL and conventional KEWR operations. AvTerminal quantitative results showed that CESTOL has significant capability to increase airport arrival acceptance rates (35-40% at KEWR) by taking advantage of otherwise underused airspace and runways where available. The study extrapolates the AvTerminal-derived KEWR peak arrival and departure acceptance rates to estimate capacity parameter values for each of the OEP airports in the ACES modeling of traffic through the entire NAS network. The extrapolations of acceptance rates allow full, partial or no achievement of CESTOL capacity gains at an OEP airport as determined by assessments of the degree to which local procedures allow leveraging of CESTOL capabilities. These assessments consider each OEP airport's runway geometries, runway system configurations, airport and airspace operations, and potential CESTOL traffic loadings. The ACES modeling, simulates airport and airspace spacing constraints imposed by airport runway system, terminal and en route air traffic control and traffic flow management operations using airport acceptance rates representing conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed operations. CEOL aircraft are assumed to have Mach 0.8, and alternatively Mach 0.7, cruise speeds to examine compatibility with conventional aircraft operations in common airspace. The ACES results provides estimates of CESTOL delay impact NAS-wide and at OEP airports due to changes in OEP airport acceptance rates and changes in en route airspace potential conflict rates. Preliminary results show meaningful nationwide delay reductions (20%) due to CESTOL operations at 34 major domestic airports.

Couluris, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Inflation Using a Non-Equilibrium Equation of Exchange

Inflation is a change in the prices of goods that takes place without changes in the actual values of those goods. The Equation of Exchange, formulated clearly in a seminal paper by Irving Fisher in 1911, establishes an equilibrium relationship between the price index P (also known as "inflation"), the economy's aggregate output Q (also known as "the real gross domestic product"), the amount of money available for spending M (also known as "the money supply"), and the rate at which money is reused V (also known as "the velocity of circulation of money"). This paper offers first a qualitative discussion of what can cause these factors to change and how those causes might be controlled, then develops a quantitative model of inflation based on a non-equilibrium version of the Equation of Exchange. Causal relationships are different from equations in that the effects of changes in the causal variables take time to play out-often significant amounts of time. In the model described here, wages track prices, but only after a distributed lag. Prices change whenever the money supply, aggregate output, or the velocity of circulation of money change, but only after a distributed lag. Similarly, the money supply depends on the supplies of domestic and foreign money, which depend on the monetary base and a variety of foreign transactions, respectively. The spreading of delays mitigates the shocks of sudden changes to important inputs, but the most important aspect of this model is that delays, which often have dramatic consequences in dynamic systems, are explicitly incorporated.macroeconomics, inflation, equation of exchange, non-equilibrium, Athena Project

Chamberlain, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute: Science and Technology for Lunar Exploration

The NASA Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) is a virtual institute focused on research at the intersection of science and exploration, training the next generation of lunar scientists, and development and support of the international community. As part of its mission, SSERVI acts as a hub for opportunities that engage the larger scientific and exploration communities in order to form new interdisciplinary, research-focused collaborations. The nine domestic SSERVI teams that comprise the U.S. complement of the Institute engage with the international science and exploration communities through workshops, conferences, online seminars and classes, student exchange programs and internships. SSERVI represents a close collaboration between science, technology and exploration enabling a deeper, integrated understanding of the Moon and other airless bodies as human exploration moves beyond low Earth orbit. SSERVI centers on the scientific aspects of exploration as they pertain to the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and the moons of Mars, with additional aspects of related technology development, including a major focus on human exploration-enabling efforts such as resolving Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs). The Institute focuses on interdisciplinary, exploration-related science focused on airless bodies targeted as potential human destinations. Areas of study represent the broad spectrum of lunar, NEA, and Martian moon sciences encompassing investigations of the surface, interior, exosphere, and near-space environments as well as science uniquely enabled from these bodies. This research profile integrates investigations of plasma physics, geology/geochemistry, technology integration, solar system origins/evolution, regolith geotechnical properties, analogues, volatiles, ISRU and exploration potential of the target bodies. New opportunities for both domestic and international partnerships are continually generated through these research and community development efforts, and SSERVI can further serve as a model for joint international scientific efforts through its creation of bridges across disciplines and between countries. Since the inception of the NASA Lunar Science Institute (SSERVIs predecessor), it has and will continue to contribute in many ways toward the advancement of lunar science and the eventual human exploration of the Moon.

virtual↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute: Merging Science and Exploration

NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) represents a close collaboration between science, technology and exploration, and was created to enable a deeper understanding of the Moon and other airless bodies. SSERVI is supported jointly by NASA's Science Mission Directorate and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The institute currently focuses on the scientific aspects of exploration as they pertain to the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and the moons of Mars, but the institute goals may expand, depending on NASA's needs, in the future. The 9 initial teams, selected in late 2013 and funded from 2014-2019, have expertise across the broad spectrum of lunar, NEA, and Martian moon sciences. Their research includes various aspects of the surface, interior, exosphere, near-space environments, and dynamics of these bodies. NASA anticipates a small number of additional teams to be selected within the next two years, with a Cooperative Agreement Notice (CAN) likely to be released in 2016. Calls for proposals are issued every 2-3 years to allow overlap between generations of institute teams, but the intent for each team is to provide a stable base of funding for a five year period. SSERVI's mission includes acting as a bridge between several groups, joining together researchers from: 1) scientific and exploration communities, 2) multiple disciplines across a wide range of planetary sciences, and 3) domestic and international communities and partnerships. The SSERVI central office is located at NASA Ames Research Center in Mountain View, CA. The administrative staff at the central office forms the organizational hub for the domestic and international teams and enables the virtual collaborative environment. Interactions with geographically dispersed teams across the U.S., and global partners, occur easily and frequently in a collaborative virtual environment. This poster will provide an overview of the 9 current US teams and international partners, as well as information about outreach efforts and future opportunities to participate in SSERVI.

technology↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Economics of Advanced In-Space Propulsion

The cost of access to space is the single biggest driver is commercial space sector. NASA continues to invest in both launch technology and in-space propulsion. Low-cost launch systems combined with advanced in-space propulsion offer the greatest potential market capture. Launch market capture is critical to national security and has a significant impact on domestic space sector revenue. NASA typically focuses on pushing the limits on performance. However, the commercial market is driven by maximum net revenue (profits). In order to maximum the infusion of NASA investments, the impact on net revenue must be known. As demonstrated by Boeing's dual launch, the Falcon 9 combined with all Electric Propulsion (EP) can dramatically shift the launch market from foreign to domestic providers.

electric propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2016

Subscale Carbon-Carbon Nozzle Extension Development and Hot Fire Testing in Support of Upper Stage Liquid Rocket Engines

Upper stage and in-space liquid rocket engines are optimized for performance through the use of high area ratio nozzles to fully expand combustion gases to low exit pressures increasing exhaust velocities. Due to the large size of such nozzles and the related engine performance requirements, carbon-carbon (C/C) composite nozzle extensions are being considered for use in order to reduce weight impacts. NASA and industry partner Carbon-Carbon Advanced Technologies (C-CAT) are working towards advancing the technology readiness level of large-scale, domestically-fabricated, C/C nozzle extensions. These C/C extensions have the ability to reduce the overall costs of extensions relative to heritage metallic and composite extensions and to decrease weight by 50%. Material process and coating developments have advanced over the last several years, but hot fire testing to fully evaluate C/C nozzle extensions in relevant environments has been very limited. NASA and C-CAT have designed, fabricated and hot fire tested multiple subscale nozzle extension test articles of various C/C material systems, with the goal of assessing and advancing the manufacturability of these domestically producible materials as well as characterizing their performance when subjected to the typical environments found in a variety of liquid rocket and scramjet engines. Testing at the MSFC Test Stand 115 evaluated heritage and state-of-the-art C/C materials and coatings, demonstrating the capabilities of the high temperature materials and their fabrication methods. This paper discusses the design and fabrication of the 1.2k-lbf sized carbon-carbon nozzle extensions, provides an overview of the test campaign, presents results of the hot fire testing, and discusses potential follow-on development work.

Gradl, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2017

Carbon-Carbon Nozzle Extension Development in Support of In-Space and Upper-Stage Liquid Rocket Engines

Upper stage and in-space liquid rocket engines are optimized for performance through the use of high area ratio nozzles to fully expand combustion gases to low exit pressures, increasing exhaust velocities. Due to the large size of such nozzles, and the related engine performance requirements, carbon-carbon (C-C) composite nozzle extensions are being considered to reduce weight impacts. Currently, the state-of-the-art is represented by the metallic and foreign composite nozzle extensions limited to approximately 2000 degrees F. used on the Atlas V, Delta IV, Falcon 9, and Ariane 5 launch vehicles. NASA and industry partners are working towards advancing the domestic supply chain for C-C composite nozzle extensions. These development efforts are primarily being conducted through the NASA Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program in addition to other low level internal research efforts. This has allowed for the initial material development and characterization, subscale hardware fabrication, and completion of hot-fire testing in relevant environments. NASA and industry partners have designed, fabricated and hot-fire tested several subscale domestically produced C-C extensions to advance the material and coatings fabrication technology for use with a variety of liquid rocket and scramjet engines. Testing at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) evaluated heritage and state-of-the-art C-C materials and coatings, demonstrating the initial capabilities of the high temperature materials and their fabrication methods. This paper discusses the initial material development, design and fabrication of the subscale carbon-carbon nozzle extensions, provides an overview of the test campaign, presents results of the hot fire testing, and discusses potential follow-on development work. The follow on work includes the fabrication of ultra-high temperature materials, larger C-C nozzle extensions, material characterization, sub-element testing and hot-fire testing at larger scale.

Gradl, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Extreme-Temperature Carbon- and Ceramic-Matrix Composite Nozzle Extensions for Liquid Rocket Engines

The United States (US) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and its US industry partners are developing extreme-temperature composite nozzle extensions for a variety of cryogenic liquid rocket engine propulsion systems. Applications under consideration at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) include launch vehicle (upper stage), in-space, and lunar lander descent/ascent propulsion systems. Composite material systems of interest include carbon-carbon (C-C) and carbon/silicon-carbide (C-SiC) composites, as well as modified versions of such composites (coatings, mixed matrices, oxidation inhibitors, etc.). Missions addressed include access to low Earth orbit, the lunar surface, and more distant destinations. Cryogenic upper-stage and in-space liquid rocket engines are optimized for performance through the use of high area ratio nozzles to fully expand combustion gases to low exit pressures, increasing exhaust velocities. As a result of the large size of such nozzles, and the related engine performance requirements, composite nozzle extensions are being considered to reduce mass impacts. Currently, metallic and foreign composite nozzle extensions used on the Atlas V, Delta IV, Falcon 9, and Ariane 5 launch vehicles represent the state-of-the-art. Such extensions are limited to use at or slightly above 2000°F (1093°C). Materials under development by MSFC and its industry partners have the potential to operate at temperatures up to (or above) 4250°F (2343°C). Marshall Space Flight Center efforts are aimed at (a) further developing the technology and databases needed to enable the use of composite nozzle extensions on cryogenic liquid rocket engines, (b) developing and demonstrating low-cost capabilities for testing and qualifying such nozzle extensions, and (c) advancing the US domestic supply chain for nozzle extensions. Through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) Programs, low-level internal MSFC research projects, and teaming arrangements with domestic industry partners, composite material design, development, hot-fire test, and evaluation efforts are progressing. Hot- fire engine tests of subscale hardware have been conducted using oxygen/hydrogen (LOX/H2), oxygen/methane (LOX/CH4), and oxygen/kerosene (LOX/RP-1) propellants. These engine tests at MSFC have enabled the evaluation of both heritage and state-of-the-art material systems, demonstrating the initial capabilities of the extreme temperature materials and their fabrication methods. Recent, ongoing, and potential future work supporting cryogenic propulsion systems development will be presented. The composite nozzle extension technology and test capabilities being developed are intended to support both NASA and US Department of Defense requirements, as well as those of the broader Commercial Space industry.

Valentine, Peter G.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Regional Nuclear Conflict Would Compromise Global Food Security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 ◦C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30◦N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

Jaegermeyr, Jonas↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Green Aviation: Review, Aspirations, and Operational Improvements

Air traffic affects the environment locally, regionally and globally. Estimates show that aviation is responsible for 13% of transportation-related fossil fuel consumption and 2% of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Although there is considerable decline in air traffic due to COVID pandemic, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) expects domestic air traffic to grow at an annual rate of 2.0 % over the next 20 years. Global air traffic is expected to grow more rapidly than domestic air traffic at an annual rate of 4.8% from 2011 to 2030. The desire to accommodate growing air traffic needs while limiting the impact of aviation on the environment has led to research in green aviation with the goals of better scientific understanding, utilization of alternative fuels, introduction of new aircraft technology, and rapid operational changes. Greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic affect the climate in different and uncertain ways. Understanding the changes requires a hierarchy of models to deal with multiple disciplines, time scales ranging from few minutes to few hundred years and uncertainties in modeling parameters affecting both science and policy. This talk reviews earlier work at Ames on the modeling approach and an integrated capability to design aircraft operations based on a trade-off between fuel consumption, environmental goals and stakeholder values.

Green Aviation↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of the Potential Non-human Animal Reservoirs and Arthropod Vectors of the Mayaro Virus

Improving our understanding of Mayaro virus (MAYV) ecology is critical to guide surveillance and risk assessment. We conducted a PRISMA-adherent systematic review of the published and grey literature to identify potential arthropod vectors and non-human animal reservoirs of MAYV. We searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, SciELO and grey-literature sources including PAHO databases and dissertation repositories. Studies were included if they assessed MAYV virological/immunological measured occurrence in field-caught, domestic, or sentinel animals or in field-caught arthropods. We conducted an animal seroprevalence meta-analysis using a random effects model. We compiled granular georeferenced maps of non-human MAYV occurrence and graded the quality of the studies using a customized framework. Overall, 57 studies were eligible out of 1523 screened, published between the years 1961 and 2020. Seventeen studies reported MAYV positivity in wild mammals, birds, or reptiles and five studies reported MAYV positivity in domestic animals. MAYV positivity was reported in 12 orders of wild-caught vertebrates, most frequently in the orders Charadriiformes and Primate. Sixteen studies detected MAYV in wild-caught mosquito genera including Haemagogus, Aedes, Culex, Psorophora, Coquillettidia, and Sabethes. Vertebrate animals or arthropods with MAYV were detected in Brazil, Panama, Peru, French Guiana, Colombia, Trinidad, Venezuela, Argentina, and Paraguay. Among non-human vertebrates, the Primate order had the highest pooled seroprevalence

Mayaro virus↗
NASA NTRS2022

Estimating groundwater use and demand in arid Kenya through assimilation of satellite data and in-situ sensors with machine learning toward drought early action

Groundwater is an important source of water for people, livestock, and agriculture during drought in the Horn of Africa. In this work, areas of high groundwater use and demand in drought-prone Kenya were identified and forecasted prior to the dry season. Estimates of groundwater use were extended from a sentinel network of 69 in-situ sensored mechanical boreholes to the region with satellite data and a machine learning model. The sensors contributed 756 site-month observations from June 2017 to September 2021 for model building and validation at a density of approximately one sensor per 3700 sq.km. An ensemble of 19 parameterized algorithms was informed by features including satellite-derived precipitation, surface water availability, vegetation indices, hydrologic land surface modeling, and site characteristics to dichotomize high groundwater pump utilization. Three operational definitions of high demand on groundwater infrastructure were considered: 1) mechanical runtime of pumps greater than a quarter of a day (6+ hr) and daily per capita volume extractions indicative of 2) domestic water needs (35+ L), and 3) intermediate needs including livestock (75+ L). Gridded interpolation of localized groundwater use and demand was provided from 2017 to 2020 and forecasted for the 2021 dry season, June–September 2021. Cross-validated skill for contemporary estimates of daily pump runtime and daily volume extraction to meet domestic and intermediate water needs was 68%, 69%, and 75%, respectively. Forecasts were externally validated with an accuracy of at least 56%, 70%, or 72% for each groundwater use definition. The groundwater maps are accessible to stakeholders including the Kenya National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). These maps represent the first operational spatially-explicit sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) estimates of groundwater use and demand in the literature. Knowledge of historical and forecasted groundwater use is anticipated to improve decision-making and resource allocation for a range of early warning early action applications.

Katie Fankhauser↗
NASA NTRS2023

Future Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Agricultural Yields, Production, and Market

This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios. Results from a process-based crop model project future increases in wheat, grassland, and soybean yield due to climate change and atmospheric CO2 change; corn and sorghum show more muted responses. Results using yields from econometric models show less positive results. Both the econometric and process-based models tend to show more positive yields by the end of the century than several other similar studies. Using the process-based model to provide future yield estimates to an integrated agricultural sector model, the welfare gain is roughly $16B/year (2019 USD) for domestic producers and $6.2B/year for international trade, but domestic consumers lose $10.6B/year, resulting in a total welfare gain of $11.7B/year. When yield projections for major crops are drawn instead from econometric models, total welfare losses of more than $28B/year arise. Simulations using the process-based model as input to the agricultural sector model show large future production increases for soybean, wheat, and sorghum and large price reductions for corn and wheat. The most important factors are those about economic growth, flooding, international trade, and the type of yield model used. Somewhat less, but not insignificant factors include adaptation, livestock productivity, and damages from surface ozone, waterlogging, and pests and diseases.

Agricultural sector↗
NASA NTRS2021

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Food Systems: Building the Evidence Base

New estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food system were developed at the country level, for the period 1990–2018, integrating data from crop and livestock production, on-farm energy use, land use and land use change, domestic food transport and food waste disposal. With these new country-level components in place, and by adding global and regional estimates of energy use in food supply chains, we estimate that total GHG emissions from the food system were about 16 CO2eq yr−1 in 2018, or one-third of the global anthropogenic total. Three quarters of these emissions, 13 Gt CO2eq yr−1, were generated either within the farm gate or in pre- and post-production activities, such as manufacturing, transport, processing, and waste disposal. The remainder was generated through land use change at the conversion boundaries of natural ecosystems to agricultural land. Results further indicate that pre- and post-production emissions were proportionally more important in developed than in developing countries, and that during 1990–2018, land use change emissions decreased while pre- and post-production emissions increased. We also report results on a per capita basis, showing world total food systems per capita emissions decreasing during 1990–2018 from 2.9 to 2.2 t CO2eq cap−1, with per capita emissions in developed countries about twice those in developing countries in 2018. Our findings also highlight that conventional IPCC categories, used by countries to report emissions in the National GHG inventory, systematically underestimate the contribution of the food system to total anthropogenic emissions. We provide a comparative mapping of food system categories and activities in order to better quantify food-related emissions in national reporting and identify mitigation opportunities across the entire food system.

greenhouse gas emissions↗