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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The GFDL Variable-Resolution Global Chemistry-Climate Model for Research at the Nexus of US Climate and Air Quality Extremes

We present a variable-resolution global chemistry-climate model (AM4VR) developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for research at the nexus of US climate and air quality extremes. AM4VR has a horizontal resolution of 13 km over the US, allowing it to resolve urban-to-rural chemical regimes, mesoscale convective systems, and land-surface heterogeneity. With the resolution gradually reducing to 100 km over the Indian Ocean, we achieve multi-decadal simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures at 50% of the computational cost for a 25-km uniform-resolution grid. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.1 contributing to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project at 100 km resolution, AM4VR features much improved US climate mean patterns and variability. In particular, AM4VR shows improved representation of: precipitation seasonal-to-diurnal cycles and extremes, notably reducing the central US dry-and-warm bias; western US snowpack and summer drought, with implications for wildfires; and the North American monsoon, affecting dust storms. AM4VR exhibits excellent representation of winter precipitation, summer drought, and air pollution meteorology in California with complex terrain, enabling skillful prediction of both extreme summer ozone pollution and winter haze events in the Central Valley. AM4VR also provides vast improvements in the process-level representations of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, interactive dust emissions from land, and removal of air pollutants by terrestrial ecosystems. We highlight the value of increased model resolution in representing climate–air quality interactions through land-biosphere feedbacks. AM4VR offers a novel opportunity to study global dimensions to US air quality, especially the role of Earth system feedbacks in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods). This paper considers concurrent changes in hydroclimate extremes, including heatwaves, drought, flooding, and low flows, in six historical-to-future (1970–1999, 2070–2099) Earth System Model (ESM) climate scenarios for the Colorado River basin. Results indicate that temperature-driven Impacts (heatwaves, drought) have the strongest responses while precipitation-driven Impacts have weaker responses. All Impacts exhibit an increase in magnitude from synoptic to annual time scales, with heatwaves increasing in strength about three times at the annual time scale versus the synoptic, while low flows only increase slightly. Critical watersheds in the Colorado were identified, highlighting the Blue River basin, Uncompahgre, East Taylor, Salt/Verde watersheds, locations of important water infrastructures, water resources, and hydrological research. Our results indicate that concurrent extreme hydroclimate events are projected to increase in the future and intensify within critical regions of the Colorado River basin. Considering extreme hydroclimate events concurrently is an important step towards linking economic and social effects of these events and their associated instabilities on a regional scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Opportunistic Short‐Term Water Uptake Dynamics by Subalpine Trees Observed via In Situ Water Isotope Measurements

Abstract Variations in tree water sources are important to understand in semi‐arid ecosystems because climatic shifts towards lower snowpack and increased drought affect water availability in subalpine forests of the western US. Here, we use daily in situ measurements of stable isotopes ( 2 H & 18 O) in soil and tree stem water, soil matric potential and sap flow to study tree water uptake dynamics. We instrumented three soil profiles down to 90 cm, as well as three aspen and engelmann spruce trees near Gothic, Colorado, in the East River watershed. We observed the fate of natural isotopic variations in rainfall, soil, and plants from June to October 2022, and in August 2023 we conducted a 2 H labeled irrigation experiment. Our observations showed that all studied aspen trees compensated for water scarcity in the shallow soil by shifting the dominant water source at 60(±20) cm to ⅔ of uptake from 90 cm within a few days of a dry period. Both species relied on snowmelt stored in the subsoil to sustain transpiration. Intense rainfall caused the plant water uptake to shift partially to top soil layers within 2 days. Spruce transpiration was lower and relied more on snowmelt, because rainfall infiltration was low in the spruce stand due to high canopy interception. Our findings highlight the important role of snowmelt stored in the deep soil layers for subalpine forest drought response and the dominant fate of monsoonal rainfall to become transpiration rather than recharging groundwater and streams in the Upper Colorado River. Plain Language Summary There is a need to understand how trees in mountainous regions respond to dry conditions that lead to water scarcity, because climate projections suggest that such conditions will become more frequent in the future. Here we present a novel data set of measurements of daily stable isotopes of water across soil profiles and in tree stems of aspen and spruce. Our data show that when the upper soil dried out, aspen trees shifted to using water from deeper layers (beneath 60 cm) to keep transpiring. For spruce trees the uptake pattern is less clear, but both types of trees mainly used snowmelt stored in the deeper soil layers to survive the dry summer. After heavy rain, aspen and spruce trees switched to using water from the top 20 cm of soil. However, for spruce, only some rain reached the soil because the dense tree canopy intercepted it, so spruce trees stayed more dependent on snowmelt and used less water overall. This study shows how important deep snowmelt water is for helping forests survive dry periods and suggests that most summer rain is quickly used by trees rather than replenishing streams and groundwater in the headwaters of the Colorado River. Key Points Tree water resources changed within a few days from snow dominated to higher share of rainfall as soils wetted up after a dry period Compensatory plant water uptake by aspen from the deep layer (90 cm), while uptake from soil depths that became drier (60 cm) declined Strong differences between water sources and availability beneath aspen and spruce, respectively

Sprenger, Matthias↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

GODEEEP-hydro: Historical and projected power system ready hydropower data for the United States

Hydropower is a critical electricity resource in the United States which, in addition to low-cost electricity generation, provides valuable ancillary grid services, and supports the integration of nondispatchable weather-dependent resources (e.g., wind and solar). Despite its value to the grid, there are very few comprehensive datasets available from which to study both historical and future impacts of climate, weather driven energy droughts, and integration of other weather driven generation. In this paper, we present a hydropower generation dataset covering 1,452 hydroelectric plants in the contiguous U.S. The dataset contains monthly and weekly hydropower generation estimates for both historical (1982–2019) and future (2020–2099) periods which includes 4 future climate scenarios. In addition, this dataset provides weekly and monthly constraints such as minimum and maximum power which are particularly useful in power system models which are used to study grid reliability, transmission planning and capacity expansion.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

What drives forest carbon storage? The ramifications of source–sink decoupling

As the climate changes and scientists seek to project its future course, an important uncertainty lies in the response of forests. Will rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and lengthening growing seasons relieve limitations to tree growth, allowing increased carbon (C) sequestration in long-lived woody tissues and providing a negative feedback to climate change? Or will increasing heat and drought stress reduce growth and increase mortality, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change? Furthermore, to answer this question, global C cycle models simulate photosynthesis under future conditions, using simple plant C allocation schemes to estimate the amount of C sequestered in woody growth vs that allocated to short-lived pools that are more rapidly respired back to the atmosphere as CO 2 (Fatichi et al., 2014). However, there is growing evidence that these schemes are too simplistic, as wood production is frequently decoupled from photosynthesis (Delpierre et al., 2016a,b; Etzold et al., 2022), either through the passive limitation of woody tree growth by environmental conditions or active allocation prioritising other sinks. Needed, then, is an understanding of how woody growth is jointly shaped by photosynthesis (i.e. source limitation) and demand from various C sinks (i.e. sink limitation) across species and biomes (Körner, 2015). In this issue of New Phytologist, Martínez-Sancho et al. (2022; pp. 58–70) exemplifies the type of research needed to improve our ability to predict forest C sequestration under climate change, using an innovative approach to describe the seasonal course of C sequestration in tree stem growth and how it is affected by drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Ecological Impacts of Dry and Hot Shocks in the Land of Midnight Sun

Contreras-Serrano et al. (2025) and Heinzelmann et al. (2025) investigated how droughts and heatwaves affect plant physiology and community functions in the Arctic. At first glance, such studies may seem counterintuitive. As the Earth's refrigerator, the Arctic is probably the least likely place that one might associate with droughts and heatwaves. However, dry and hot shocks do occur there, and their frequency and intensity can be surprisingly high. On June 20, 2020, the thermometer at the weather station of the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk (67.55° N and 133.40° E) witnessed a record temperature of 38°C in the Article Circle (Ciavarella et al. 2021). This record Arctic temperature was the consequence of the congruence of the powers of the stratospheric polar vortex, the tropospheric jet stream, and the Arctic Oscillation, all of which reached record strength in the early months of 2020, priming the conditions for an unprecedented ecological disturbance (Overland and Wang 2021). This extreme event, now known as the 2020 Siberian heatwave, caused widespread wildfires, insect outbreaks, and permafrost degradation, releasing almost 60 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere (ESOTC 2020). Extreme weather events like this are not just limited to Siberia (Dobricic et al. 2020). The Arctic has warmed up much faster than the rest of the world, that is, “Arctic Amplification” (Moon et al. 2024). The total land area affected by severe, extreme, and very extreme heatwaves has doubled, tripled, and quadrupled, respectively, across the terrestrial Arctic since the 1950s, and the extent is projected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century (Rantanen et al. 2024).

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metagenome-assembled genomes from topsoils along a hillslope water gradient across early snowmelt to late summer in East River, CO

Drought is changing the American Mountain West at unprecedented rates with unknown consequences to soil microbiome composition and function. As a part of LBNL Watershed Science Focus Area (SFA), we investigated shifts in microbial community and transcriptional activity on a subalpine conifer-meadow transition zone throughout the summer of 2023 as soil dried down. This work took place in Crested Butte, CO on Snodgrass mountain, using a proxy for drought conditions.Here we present metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) for the bacterial and archaeal community at 0-10cm from three sites along a hillslope water gradient across five timepoints from early snowmelt to late summer. 42 metagenomes were sequenced at Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and can be found under the JGI GOLD (Genomes Online Database) sequencing project Gs0166660. Metagenomes were assembled through an inhouse pipeline (see methods), binned using four autobinners (concoct, maxbin2, metabat2, and vamb) and consolidated using dastool. The consolidated bins from all metagenomes were pooled, filtered by completeness (>70%) and contamination (<10%), and dereplicated at 95% ANI using drep. This dataset (1) a zip file of 157 MAGs (as fasta files, Gs0166660_bins_tar.gz), (2) sample metadata file with sample IGSNs (International Generic Sample Numbers) (samples.csv), (3) bounding box coordinates for the sampled locations (Gs0166660.kml), (4) metagenome assembly and coassembly metadata file listing IMG/M (Integrated Microbial Genomes/Metagenomes) metagenome accessions linking samples to metagenomes (EastRiver_Drought_ESSDive_Metadata.csv), (5) location metadata file (locations.csv), (6) file-level metadata file (flmd.csv) and (7) data dictionary (dd.csv) file.This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of climate change on adaptive management decisions in the face of water scarcity

Reoccurring drought through the early 2000s has caused a serious water scarcity issue in the Colorado River Basin. Previous modeling studies have focused on the impact of climate change without considering the adaptive behaviors of farmers and under-utilized Indian water rights. Here, we use a coupled agent-based water resource model (ABM) to investigate how the adaptive decisions of farmers can affect water resource management under both climate change impacts and fully utilized Indian water right conditions. We used five General Circulation Model projections with RCP8.5 scenarios for the study. The results of farm-level decision-making showed different responses in irrigated areas that were changing due to climate change impact. While winter precipitation changes might partially explain the behavior changes, no specific pattern could be concluded based on their location. Also, farmers’ responses about annual water diversion showed more significant inter-year variation compared to irrigated areas. Basin-level metrics showed that climate change impacts will generally worsen water scarcity issues as measured in Navajo Reservoir storage, flow to Lake Powell, and instream flow requirement. But these basin-level water scarcity metrics cannot reflect individual farm-level impacts under climate change, which is why modeling the bottom-up management actions is necessary. When the under-utilized Indian water rights are fully used, it is more likely to trigger the shortage sharing agreement due to the higher tribal water depletion. Evaluation of model uncertainty and a more realistic setup for adaptive actions under drought contingency plans are suggested for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Glen Canyon Generation Loss

Colorado River Basin hydropower generation has faced challenges due to droughts and ecological and social water requirements. Specifically, Glen Canyon hydropower generation fluctuates substantially with recent extreme weather trends. Further, the western grid evolves with higher wind and solar share, and Glen Canyon hydropower's contribution to grid flexibility services is essential. The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) markets and schedules electricity production at GCD, and the loss of this power could have significant financial consequences for the WAPA Colorado River Storage Project's (CRSP) Office because it may need to purchase relatively large amounts of energy to serve its firm electrical obligations. In addition, GCD provides grid reliability services for the WAPA Colorado-Missouri (WACM) balancing authority (BA). Both WAPA and DOE's Water & Power Technology Office (WPTO) are interested in researching how these drier hydrological conditions will impact federal electrical energy production, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) power grid, and the value of hydropower in the face of lower production. We study multiple hydrologic and power grid scenarios to understand the grid impacts of the loss of Glen Canyon generation. The study uses a production cost model, water resources planning models, water-centric grid models, and various data analytic techniques. The study progress presentation discusses the selection of probable CRSP' hydropower scenarios and power grid scenarios to understand the impacts of Glen Canyon generation, which includes technologies that compensate the Glen Canyon energy and ancillary services contributions, transmission availability, and energy local marginal prices at interested grid locations of WAPA operation.

droughts↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Rate of Canopy Development Modulates the Link Between the Timing of Spring Leaf Emergence and Summer Moisture

Shifts in phenological timing have important implications for ecosystem processes, with spring leaf emergence as a dominant control of carbon, water, and energy cycling. Phenological events are predominantly determined by weather and climate, therefore dynamic in time and sensitive to climate feedbacks. Improving our understanding of how ecosystems respond to changes in phenological timing will enhance our ability to assess summer soil water availability, since the timing of spring leaf emergence may lead to soil moisture deficits later in the growing season. We leveraged data from five AmeriFlux towers in central and eastern United States to investigate the extent spring leaf emergence (i.e., start of spring, SoS ) influences rates at which forest canopies develop and how this impacts summer soil moisture ( θ JJA ) variability. Our results indicate that ecosystem processes, specifically gross primary production ( GPP ) and evapotranspiration ( ET ), exhibit compensatory responses to varying leaf emergence; with delayed spring-onset, the canopy developed more quickly, resulting in rapid GPP and ET increases, consistent across sites. Nonetheless, early SoS is a relatively good indicator for potential summer soil water deficits, particularly when it occurs together with meteorological conditions (i.e., lower-than-average precipitation, hot summer temperatures) that contribute to soil water deficits. When these meteorological conditions coincide with early SoS , θ JJA deficits are exacerbated. To the extent that these extreme conditions occur more frequently under future climate scenarios, the dynamics of spring phenology and hydroclimate may play an increasingly important role in portending the likelihood of summer water deficits, which are projected to become more severe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scaling plant responses to high temperature from cell to ecosystem

Plant survival and productivity decrease with exposure to less favourable environments. The negative effects of environmental factors such as water-deficit and salinity stress on vegetation are relatively well studied, primarily due to the large losses in crop yield and forest biomass caused by these stresses. Although the impact of combined heat and drought on plants has received considerable interest in recent years due to climate change, there has been less focus on ascertaining the impact of heat stress alone at a range of temporal and spatial scales. The steady increase in global mean temperatures and (more importantly) variability in extreme temperatures is translating into more frequent and extreme heat stress episodes, which in turn reduce plant productivity. Further, projected increases in both day and night temperatures and the predicted impact of these changes on agricultural and forest productivity have drawn attention to the need to better address the direct effects of heat on plants. In particular, there has been tremendous interest in understanding the short- and long-term effects of heat at the cellular and whole-plant levels, including work on crops of agricultural importance and species from less managed ecosystems. Hence, we made a concerted effort in this Special Issue to capture recent progress in our ability to quantify the impact of heat stress, and identify new tools and approaches that have been developed and implemented to capture a wide range of responses in plants. The series of reviews and research articles presented here captures our current understanding of plant physiological and molecular responses to heat stress, as well as covering phenotyping methods, genetic diversity and potential routes through which plants can acclimate and adapt to warming climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating field observations and process-based modeling to predict watershed water quality under environmental perturbations

Watersheds play a critical role in supplying water resources needed for human use and ecosystem health. Understanding and predicting how, when, and where changes in the quantity and quality of water resources occur under different environmental stresses including extreme events is crucial for sustainable management of water resources under a changing environment. However, few studies have attempted to quantify or identify the factors and process interactions controlling the impact of extreme events across water-shed systems. Only few large-scale studies include coordinated monitoring and modeling efforts, which limits our ability to assess the large-scale impact of extreme events on water supply and quality. Methods are lacking to propagate uncertainty in process understanding through an integrated hydro-biogeochemical model framework and evaluate its importance, thus failing to take full advantage of the information potentially available through transformative advances in characterization technologies from high-resolution mass spectrometry to airborne and satellite-based remote sensing. There are consequent risks to our nations water security and to human and ecosystem health that may become exacerbated with the increasing frequency of extreme events that is projected for the coming decades. This paper reviews the current status of watershed science for both water quantity and quality and identifies critical gaps in our current knowledge and modeling capability in addressing the emergent needs in predicting watershed hydrologic and biogeochemical responses (i.e., water quantity and quality) under natural and anthropogenic perturbations. We highlight the need to (1) understand how environmental perturbations including extreme events like floods and droughts propagate through watershed systems and assess their short- and long-term impacts on watershed biogeochemistry, water quality and their recovery pathways; (2) develop and improve a watershed water quality model that reflects the state of scientific understanding gained from observations; and (3) construct a data-model fusion system for watershed characterization, process identification, and mechanistic model parameterization. A large base of modeling, monitoring and data capabilities have been built by various federal government agencies given the relevance of water to their critical missions. An emerging need is to build an integrated national capability for watershed water availability and quality that can address water-related missions across multiple federal agencies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate assessment of land–atmosphere coupling in climate models requires high-frequency data output

Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions are important for understanding convective processes, climate feedbacks, the development and perpetuation of droughts, heatwaves, pluvials, and other land-centered climate anomalies. Local L–A coupling (LoCo) metrics capture relevant L–A processes, highlighting the impact of soil and vegetation states on surface flux partitioning and the impact of surface fluxes on boundary layer (BL) growth and development and the entrainment of air above the BL. A primary goal of the Climate Process Team in the Coupling Land and Atmospheric Subgrid Parameterizations (CLASP) project is parameterizing and characterizing the impact of subgrid heterogeneity in global and regional Earth system models (ESMs) to improve the connection between land and atmospheric states and processes. A critical step in achieving that aim is the incorporation of L–A metrics, especially LoCo metrics, into climate model diagnostic process streams. However, because land–atmosphere interactions span timescales of minutes (e.g., turbulent fluxes), hours (e.g., BL growth and decay), days (e.g., soil moisture memory), and seasons (e.g., variability in behavioral regimes between soil moisture and latent heat flux), with multiple processes of interest happening in different geographic regions at different times of year, there is not a single metric that captures all the modes, means, and methods of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. And while monthly means of most of the LoCo-relevant variables are routinely saved from ESM simulations, data storage constraints typically preclude routine archival of the hourly data that would enable the calculation of all LoCo metrics. Here, we outline a reasonable data request that would allow for adequate characterization of sub-daily coupling processes between the land and the atmosphere, preserving enough sub-daily output to describe, analyze, and better understand L–A coupling in modern climate models. A secondary request involves embedding calculations within the models to determine mean properties in and above the BL to further improve characterization of model behavior. Higher-frequency model output will (i) allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, (ii) enable demonstration of inter-model spread in L–A coupling processes, and (iii) aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗