Designing New Economical and Scalable High Performance Aluminum Alloys for Overhead Electric Transmission Conductors
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17 WIND ENERGY↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Program and Methodology
The US Department of Energy’s PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative has been launched in order to collect and evaluate production data across multiple PV fleet partners. Performance statistics are anonymized, aggregated and shared to represent a snapshot of the US commercial and utility-scale fleet. Production data have been collected from over 1500 systems representing more than 1.3 GWdc capacity. Preliminary analysis indicates median performance loss rates are in line with previous publications of system degradation, on the order of –0.6%/yr to –0.9%/yr (preliminary numbers subject to change). These values are higher than module-only degradation rates which are often used in pro-forma estimates of project performance and economics, potentially exposing owner/operators to increased risk if systems under-perform over time.
41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
Are quantum materials economically and environmentally sustainable?
Quantum materials have revolutionized energy, information, and healthcare technologies, yet their development has largely prioritized performance over economic and environmental impacts—key factors for industrial adoption. Using topological materials as a case study, we present a data-driven framework that evaluates over 16,000 materials based on cost, supply chain resilience, energy demand, toxicity, and environmental footprint. By integrating the recently proposed quantum weight – a metric quantifying quantum behavior – we reveal a striking trend: materials with stronger quantum effects often exhibit higher environmental impact, posing challenges for scalability and industrial adoption. To address this, we identify a small set of materials that achieve a balance between quantum functionality and sustainability. Furthermore, our approach enables high-throughput, AI-driven materials discovery that incorporates economic and environmental influences from the outset, guiding the development of quantum materials for next-generation microelectronics and energy harvesting technologies.
AI↗
Tabulated Database of Closed-Loop Geothermal Systems Performance for Cloud-Based Technical and Economic Modeling of Heat Production and Electricity Generation: Preprint
To better understand the heat production, electricity generation performance and economic viability of closed loop geothermal systems in hot-dry-rock, the Closed Loop Geothermal Group, a consortium of several national labs and academic institutions has tabulated time-dependent numerical solutions and levelized cost results of two popular closed loop heat exchanger designs (u-tube and co-axial). The heat exchanger designs were evaluated for two working fluids (water and super-critical CO2) while varying seven continuous independent parameters of interest (i.e., mass flow rate, vertical depth, horizontal extent, borehole diameter, formation gradient, formation conductivity, and injection temperature). The corresponding numerical solutions (approximately 1.2 million per heat exchanger design) are stored as multi-dimensional HDF5 datasets and can be queried at off-grid points using multi-dimensional linear interpolation. A Python script was developed to query this database and estimate time-dependent electricity generation using an Organic Rankine cycle (for water) or direct turbine expansion cycle (for CO2) and perform a cost assessment. This document aims to give an overview of the HDF5 database file and highlights how to read, visualize, and query quantities of interest (e.g., levelized cost of electricity, levelized cost of heat) using the accompanying python scripts. Details regarding the capital, operation, and maintenance and levelized cost calculation using the TEA (techno-economic analysis) script are provided.
co-axial↗
Impacts of uncertain feedstock quality on the economic feasibility of fast pyrolysis biorefineries with blended feedstocks and decentralized preprocessing sites in the Southeastern United States
Abstract This study performs techno‐economic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) to explore the effects that variations in biomass feedstock quality have on the economic feasibility of fast pyrolysis biorefineries using decentralized preprocessing sites (i.e., depots that produce pellets). Two biomass resources in the Southeastern United States, that is, pine residues and switchgrass, were examined as feedstocks. A scenario analysis was conducted for an array of different combinations, including different pellet ash control levels, feedstock blending ratios, different biorefinery capacities, and different biorefinery on‐stream capacities, followed by a comparison with the traditional centralized system. MCS results show that, with depot preprocessing, variations in the feedstock moisture and feedstock ash content can be significantly reduced compared with a traditional centralized system. For a biorefinery operating at 100% of its designed capacity, the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the decentralized system is $3.97–$4.39 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE) based on the mean value across all scenarios, whereas the mean MFSP for the traditional centralized system was $3.79–$4.12/GGE. To understand the potential benefits of highly flowable pellets in decreasing biorefinery downtime due to feedstock handling and plugging problems, this study also compares the MFSP of the decentralized system at 90% of its designed capacity with a traditional system at 80%. The analysis illustrates that using low ash pellets mixed with switchgrass and pine residues generates a more competitive MFSP. Specifically, for a biorefinery designed for 2,000 oven dry metric ton per day, running a blended pellet made from 75% switchgrass and 25% pine residues with 2% ash level, and operating at 90% of designed capacity could make an MFSP between $4.49 and $4.71/GGE. In contrast, a traditional centralized biorefinery operating at 80% of designed capacity marks an MFSP between $4.72 and $5.28.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models
Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.
Deep learning↗
Carbon molecular sieve hollow fiber membranes derived from dip-coated precursor hollow fibers comprising nanoparticles
We report a novel approach to economically fabricate dual-layer composite nanoparticle-containing carbon molecular sieve (CMS) hollow fiber membranes having excellent gas separation performance. The economically favored process comprises dip coating engineered support layer fibers to form a dense skin layer in a CMS precursor. The coated fibers are then pyrolyzed to form a high-performance CMS hollow fiber membrane. The nano-particle containing composite carbon molecular sieve hollow fiber membranes showed very attractive selectivities and productivities. As a result, this work shows how to produce high performance CMS hollow fiber membrane by coating, which exceeds that achieved with the standard sol-gel support stabilization technique.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Technoeconomic analysis of thermoelectric power plant condensers with nonwetting surfaces
Not provided.
Energy & Fuels↗
Economic Extraction and Recovery of REEs and Production of Clean Value-Added Products from Low-Rank Coal Fly Ash
The University of North Dakota (UND) Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) teamed with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) , the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Program, and commercial partners Basin Electric Power Cooperative, Great River Energy, and Southern Company to execute a Cooperative Agreement funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) focused on identifying unique pathways and pretreatments to extract rare-earth elements (REEs) from low-rank coal (LRC) ash in a more economical and environmentally benign manner than current methods. The EERC drew upon the unique and deep knowledge of the team regarding LRC geochemistry, ash transformation mechanisms during combustion, and fly ash chemistry in the approach to understand the portioning of REEs in LRC ash. A comprehensive characterization effort was undertaken to fully establish the form, associations, and partitioning of the REEs and other elements/minerals of interest in fly ash, as well as the ash chemistry, mineralogy, and morphology. Using this information, the team tested methods of REE extraction to take advantage of the unique and advantageous properties of LRC ash. Multiple complementary approaches were evaluated that combined both novel and proven methods to develop an extractive process for REEs and other high-value metals from LRC ash that provide technological and economic progress on the current state of the art. Methodologies were also evaluated for the potential to synergistically remove toxic metals while extracting other high-value metals from the ash, generating a clean, safe ash material as a value-added product. This would eliminate waste and offer significant additional revenue potential. Based on laboratory-scale testing, an initial high-level technical and economic analysis to estimate operating expenses and product revenues to guide future phases of technology development was implemented. By focusing on minimizing process steps and consumptive use of extraction solutions, a tunable, economically viable process for REE extraction from LRC ash was developed. The tunable process has the ability to be adjusted to adapt to the differing ash chemical and physical properties that are characteristic of LRC ash. This is key to deployment as a commercial process. In demonstrating the process, the EERC was able to illustrate mixed REE concentration greater than the goal of 2 wt%. High-level economic analysis of the process with LRC ash of moderate REE levels demonstrated the potential of the process, but recovery of just the REEs was insufficient to cover operational costs. With the additional extraction of other high-value metals found in LRC ash, the process economics approach would break even, and it is anticipated that with process optimization, the developed process could potentially be economically sound. The same economic analysis performed utilizing LRC ash with high levels of REEs showed the recovery of the REEs alone would make the process economically viable even without further optimization.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Techno-Economic Optimization of a Solvent Absorption Process for CO2 Capture with 3D-Printed Intensified Packing
Presentation given at the 2024 annual AICHE meeting held October 27-31, 2024. The presentation focuses on modeling performance and economics of a solvent absorption system for CO2 capture with towers utilizing intensified packing. The packing is an alternative to traditional structured packing by incorporating cooling channel for simultaneous mass and heat transfer.
Summits, Stephen↗
Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model
The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Ground Source Heat Pump Screening Tool and Related Resources
This archive contains both a link to Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) Screening Tool and related resources documenting its development, technical features, and applications. The web-based screening tool is a techno-economic analysis resource designed to evaluate the feasibility, costs, and benefits of implementing GSHP systems in buildings across various U.S. climate zones. It is intended for use by building owners, HVAC system designers, and installers to support decision-making in residential and commercial applications, incorporating advanced modeling capabilities such as ground heat exchanger design. The included resources detail the tool's creation and use, covering topics such as innovative ground heat exchanger design methodologies, the development of an open library of g-functions for borehole configurations, and studies on GSHP performance and economic viability in retrofitting single-family homes.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
SMART: Simplified Melting And Rotation-joint Technology
Oil based parabolic trough solar power plants are the most commercially mature CSP technology. However, the upper limit of about 400°C of the current organic heat transfer fluid(HTF)significantly limits the future potential of the technology. Advances in parabolic trough receiver and collector technology have enabled higher operating temperatures of potentially 500°C or above. The search for an improved higher temperature HTF has identified inorganic molten salts, specifically the mix referred to as Solar Salt, a 60:40 mix of sodium nitrate and potassium nitrate salt. However, Solar Salt starts to freeze at about 240°C. This poses a significant challenge for large parabolic trough plants that could have many kilometers of header piping and hundreds of kilometers of receiver piping all filled with molten salt. Plants using molten salt need to be designed to minimize the risk of freezing and to be able to recover from freeze events. Studies and field experiments have shown that this appears to be feasible and the approach appears to have strong economic advantages over conventional trough plants. However, some technical challenges remain related to the use of molten salt in trough solar fields, the cost of the freeze recovery system is significant, and many still question whether the risk of using molten salt is worth the economic upside. In our view, the potential economic upside justifies the continued look at molten salt HTF in parabolic trough plants. The objective of this project was to address the key technical issue remaining, look for opportunities to reduce the cost of the freeze recovery system, and improve the general information and tools available for assessing the design, performance and economics of trough plants using molten salt HTF.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Optimal economic operation of liquid petroleum products pipeline systems
The majority of overland transport needs for crude petroleum and refined petroleum products are met using pipelines. Numerous studies have developed optimization methods for design of these systems in order to minimize construction costs while meeting capacity requirements. Here, we formulate problems to optimize the operations of existing single liquid commodity pipeline systems subject to physical flow and pump engineering constraints. The objectives are to maximize the economic value created for users of the system and to minimize operating costs. We present a general computational method for this class of continuous, non-convex nonlinear programs, and examine the use of pump operating settings and flow allocations as decision variables. Furthermore, the approach is applied to compute optimal operating regimes and perform engineering economic sensitivity analyses for a case study of a crude oil pipeline developed using publicly available data.
02 PETROLEUM↗
SAM Linear Fresnel Model, Project B (CRADA Final Report)
Objective performance and economic modeling of solar thermal plants is of keen interest to many EPRI funders. One solar thermal technology that is not currently available to model in any non-vendor, non-proprietary tool is linear Fresnel. This technology has garnered enough interest from EPRI funders to merit investing in a tool to objectively model its performance. Early in 2010, EPRI performed a comparison of modeling solar thermal power plants using the IPSEPRO, CNRS and Solar Advisor (SAM) tools. After completing this effort, EPRI decided to adopt NREL’s Solar Advisor Model as its default modeling tool based in part on user friendliness, flexibility, number of technologies covered, integrated financial model and ease of running sensitivities. Furthermore, it was recognized that NREL continues to invest considerable time and resources into improving capabilities and functionality of the model.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications
The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications
The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets
Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗