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Systems evaluation of thermal bus concepts

Thermal bus concepts, to provide a centralized thermal utility for large, multihundred kilowatt space platforms, were studied and the results are summarized. Concepts were generated, defined, and screened for inclusion in system level thermal bus trades. Parametric trade studies were conducted in order to define the operational envelope, performance, and physical characteristics of each. Two concepts were selected as offering the most promise for thermal bus development. All of four concepts involved two phase flow in order to meet the required isothermal nature of the thermal bus. Two of the concepts employ a mechanical means to circulate the working fluid, a liquid pump in one case and a vapor compressor in another. Another concept utilizes direct osmosis as the driving force of the thermal bus. The fourth concept was a high capacity monogroove heat pipe. After preliminary sizing and screening, three of these concepts were selected to carry into the trade studies. The monogroove heat pipe concept was deemed unsuitable for further consideration because of its heat transport limitations. One additional concept utilizing capillary forces to drive the working fluid was added. Parametric system level trade studies were performed. Sizing and weight calculations were performed for thermal bus sizes ranging from 5 to 350 kW and operating temperatures in the range of 4 to 120 C. System level considerations such as heat rejection and electrical power penalties and interface temperature losses were included in the weight calculations.

Stalmach, D. D.↗

Experimenter's data package for the descending layers rocket

In response to a proposal from Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), NASA Headquarters has approved a sounding rocket mission designed to study the physics of intermediate layers in the Earth's ionosphere at middle latitudes. The experiment will be carried out by a team of scientists and engineers from the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, SAIC, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and the Millstone Hill radar observatory. The mission will involve the launch of an instrumented sounding rocket from the Wallops Island rocket range in the summer of 1994, with the objective of penetrating a descending ionized layer in the E-region between altitudes of 115 and 140 km. Instrumentation aboard the rocket will measure the ion and neutral composition of the layer, its plasma density, driving wind and electric field forces, the thermal ion distribution function, and electron temperature. Depending on payload weight constraints and subject to availability, a particle detector to measure energetic ion and/or electron fluxes near the layer may also be included. This document was prepared as a reference for the NASA payload development and experiment teams, for distribution at the Project Initiation Conference (PIC). The design specifications discussed herein are therefore of a preliminary nature; the intent is to promote open discussions between experimenters and NASA engineers that will lead to a final design capable of achieving the experiment objectives.

Earle, Greg↗

Current Status and Future Plans for Electric Motors and Drives at NASA

Our work advances propulsion for aircraft while reducing energy consumption, noise, emissions and the cost of air travel. We are committed to investigating the use of alternative energy sources and improving the safety and expediency of flight. Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) is the use of propulsors (propellers or fans) driven by electric motors to propel aircraft ranging from air taxis to subsonic transports. NASA is developing technology, aircraft concepts, test aircraft, and ground test facilities to turn this idea from science fiction to- reality. Specifically, motors and/or generators (Electric machines) are needed on all electrified aircraft. And NASA is sponsoring or performing work to achieve power densities 2-3 times the state of the art for machines in the MW or larger class. Three major machine types are being developed: permanent magnet, induction, and wound field. Power converters are also an essential component in most EAP aircraft concepts, as they are used to convert from ac to dc power, or vice versa. Silicon carbide and gallium nitride convertors are being developed with conventional cooling as well as a cryogenically cooled converter. Future plans include demonstrating integrated flight-ready systems in both ground and flight tests; collaborating with and leveraging ARPA-E EAP programs; and supporting FAA standards development for market acceptance and safety.

Aircraft↗

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans

This guide was developed to improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening dialogue between electricity system planners and stakeholders throughout the process. This document was created for anyone who is first getting exposed to scenario results from power system planning models, or for those who are beginning to interact with power system modelers. It does not assume any experience with power system modeling, or familiarity with electricity planning concepts. This guide can be helpful to a wide range of people, including but not limited to state utility commissioners and commission staff, state energy offices, and intervenors in the planning process. It is targeted to those who are evaluating or reviewing model results presented by a utility, which typically span utility-scale generation and storage (and associated transmission) assets. This guide is designed to provide enough background and guidance that stakeholders can formulate and ask questions to evaluate model results through a deeper understanding of the key assumptions, data, and methods that drive decision outcomes. The ultimate purpose of this work is to increase transparency in the electricity planning process by enabling stakeholders to better engage and evaluate model results. A follow-on guide will provide a deeper dive into emerging topics, which are expected to become more prominent in the electricity planning process, but whose methods and approaches are still being refined.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Design of a reconfigurable modular manipulator system

Using manipulators with a fixed configuration for specific tasks is appropriate when the task requirements are known beforehand. However, in less predictable situations, such as an outdoor construction site or aboard a space station, a manipulator system requires a wide range of capabilities, probably beyond the limitations of a single, fixed-configuration manipulator. To fulfill this need, researchers have been working on a Reconfigurable Modular Manipulator System (RMMS). Researchers have designed and are constructing a prototype RMMS. The prototype currently consists of two joint modules and four link modules. The joints utilize a conventional harmonic drive and torque motor actuator, with a small servo amplifier included in the assembly. A brushless resolver is used to sense the joint position and velocity. For coupling the modules together, a standard electrical connector and V-band clamps for mechanical connection are used, although more sophisticated designs are under way for future versions. The joint design yields an output torque to 50 ft-lbf at joint speeds up to 1 radian/second. The resolver and associated electronics have resolutions of 0.0001 radians, and absolute accuracies of plus or minus 0.001 radians. Manipulators configured from these prototype modules will have maximum reaches in the 0.5 to 2 meter range. The real-time RMMS controller consists of a Motorola 68020 single-board computer which will perform real time servo control and path planning of the manipulator. This single board computer communicates via shared memory with a SUN3 workstation, which serves as a software development system and robot programming environment. Researchers have designed a bus communication network to provide multiplexed communication between the joint modules and the computer controller. The bus supports identification of modules, sensing of joint states, and commands to the joint actuator. This network has sufficient bandwidth to allow servo sampling rates in excess of 500 Hz.

Schmitz, D.↗

High-Fidelity and High-Performance Computational Simulations for Rapid Design Optimization of Sulfur Thermal Energy Storage

Industrial process heating (IPH) accounts for approximately 70% of US manufacturing energy use and is primarily produced by fossil fuel combustion. Approximately 1500 TWht (approximately 60%) of IPH demand is in the temperature range of 100-300. Industrial applications in this temperature range include drying, hydrothermal processing, thermal enhanced oil recovery, food and beverage, bioethanol production, etc. Cost-effective thermal energy storage (TES) that increases the utilization of waste and renewable heat (solar, geothermal, etc.) could provide significant energy savings and reliable heat sources, decrease emissions, and increase US manufacturing competitiveness through reductions in fuel consumption. TES development has historically been dominated by technologies suitable for deployment with concentrating solar power (CSP). State-of-the-art thermal storage deployed commercially with power tower CSP plants uses a 60%/40% NaNO3/KNO3 molten salt and operates between temperatures of approximately 280 degrees Celsius and 570 degrees Celsius using a two-tank configuration. However, these nitrate salts are unsuitable for operation outside of this temperature range due to a high freezing point of approximately 220 degrees Celsius, and limits on high-temperature salt stability and corrosion resistance of containment alloys. Other materials being investigated for TES include those based on: (1) sensible energy storage (various molten salt compositions, inert solid particles, rocks or pebble beds, sulfur, water, concrete, graphite, etc.), (2) latent energy storage in materials that undergo solid-liquid phase change at relevant temperatures (organic materials for low-temperature applications, inorganic salts and/or metals for high-temperature applications), or (3) thermochemical energy storage (hydrides, hydroxides, carbonates, metal oxides, etc.). The application temperature and challenges pertaining to storage material and/or containment cost, energy density, long-term thermal and cyclic stability, and charge/discharge heat transfer effectiveness drive material selection for a given IPH or electricity generation application. Sulfur is a cheap commodity at $80/ton compared to $1100 - 1300/ton for conventional salts. When using a metric of storage cost per kWh, sulfur costs around 2-3 $/kWh. Previous sulfur TES development focused on high temperature (>600 degrees) concentrated solar power applications with sulfur encapsulated in pipes and flow of gaseous HTF (air) in the shell side. However, for lower-temperature IPH applications in the range of approximately 100-300 degrees Celsius Element 16 adopted a compact and scalable TES design with molten sulfur in the shell and HTF pipes submerged in the molten sulfur bath. The low-cost molten sulfur TES for dispatchable IPH has deployment potential for broad applications. The spatial and temporal evolution of the HTF and sulfur temperature is critical to the TES system performance, and thus detailed modeling can improve understanding of the performance and facilitate design improvements. Using high performance computing and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) a low-cost molten sulfur thermal energy storage (TES) system for industrial process heating (IPH) applications was developed. The unique challenges in CFD modeling of sulfur TES are the sharp property changes of sulfur relevant to the working temperatures. Above 159, liquid sulfur undergoes polymerization, and the viscosity of sulfur rapidly increases by several orders of magnitude between 159 degrees Celsius and 188 degrees Celsius, followed by a decrease in viscosity beyond 188 degrees Celsius due to thermal bound dissociation. In addition, various concentrations of H2S impurities can also modify sulfur viscosity. This numerical challenge is especially relevant to transient simulation of the sulfur TES charging and discharging processes as the extreme property variations limit the applicability of traditional heat transfer correlations. Transient CFD simulations including the temperature-dependent sulfur properties and geometric complexity of the TES design were used to predict the effect of natural convection during charging and discharging on the heat transfer process, sulfur temperature uniformity, charge/discharge rates, and performance of the storage devices. The CFD model was validated with experimental results for a full charge and discharge cycle. The work will show 3D and 2D simulation comparisons aimed to facilitate rapid design iterations and a machine learning based design optimization approach.

CFD↗

BATPAC--VERSION 5.0

Argonne National Laboratory has worked on electrochemical energy storage for several decades. The focus on lithium-ion chemistries started in the early 1990s, developing new materials, synthesis methods, and performance characterizations. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-EERE-VTO), Argonne has led with many advances. The experimental activities were complemented with multi-scale modeling that ranged from the atomic to the system (manufacturing processes and automobiles) level. The Battery Performance and Cost (BatPaC) model is a calculation method based on Microsoft¿ Office Excel spreadsheets that have been developed at Argonne for estimating the performance and manufacturing cost of lithium-ion batteries for electric-drive vehicles including hybrid-electrics (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and pure electrics. The effort is being funded by the Vehicle Technology Office (VTO), which is part of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) office of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE). BatPaC was first developed in 2007, was subsequently peer-reviewed, and it has served Argonne researchers and the greater battery community in studying the impact of material properties on performance at the pack level. With further developments, the model now allows the design of cells and battery packs for automotive applications, to meet performance requirements (power, energy, recharge time), and estimates the cost of manufacturing the designed batteries. Since the cost depends on the materials he design, and the manufacturing process, this bottom-up model/tool enables the user to study their effects. Designed or the lithium-ion cell and battery researcher, BatPaC helps answer many questions by being 1.Transparent in the assumptions made and the method of calculation 2.Capable of designing a battery specifically for the requirements of an application 3.Constrained by the physical limitations that govern battery performance 4. A bottom-up calculation approach to account for every cost factors. BatPaC predicts the impact of promising materials (and their properties) on the performance metrics relevant for the different applications. Researchers can use the specific capacities and the half-cell voltages of a particular set of electrode materials to calculate the mass and volume of a cell to develop a model incorporating the properties of all the other materials in the cell and the design of the cell enclosure. These calculations not only reveal the impact of an improved material but also enable researchers to calculate the material properties that would be needed to meet the performance criteria of a full battery pack. With this information, researchers can provide he battery industry with realistic expectations that will help it more successfully advance novel battery technologies an Applications.

AHMED, SHABBIR↗

Assessment of tank designs for hydrogen storage on heavy duty vehicles using metal hydrides

The objective of this project was to evaluate material-based hydrogen storage solutions as a replacement for high-pressure hydrogen gas or liquid hydrogen on Class 7 or 8 tractor fuel cell electric vehicles. The project focused on low-density main-group hydrides, a well-known class of materials for hydrogen storage. Prior research has considered metal amides as storage materials for light-duty vehicles but not for heavy-duty applications. The project established the basis for further development of storage systems of this type for heavy duty vehicles (HDV). Systems analysis of an HDV storage system comprised of a tank and associated balance of plant (piping, coolant tubes, burner) was performed to determine the usable hydrogen capacity. A composite storage material comprised of a metal hydride mixed with a high thermal-conductivity carbon is predicted to have a usable hydrogen volumetric capacity comparable to or exceeding that of 700 bar pressurized hydrogen gas. The gravimetric capacity of this material is also predicted to be competitive with pressurized gas, particularly if costly carbon fiber composite Type III or Type IV tanks are excluded. The storage system design parameters and material properties served as inputs to a second model that simulates fuel cell operation in conjunction with the storage system during an HDV drive cycle. The results show that sufficient hydrogen pressure can be produced to operate a Class 8 HDV, yielding a range of ~480 miles. These results are particularly relevant for high-impact regions, such as the South Coast Air Quality Management District, for which an economical vehicular hydrogen storage system with minimal impact on cargo capacity could accelerate adoption of heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles. An additional benefit is that knowledge generated by this project can assist in development of material-based storage for stationary applications such as microgrids and backup power for data centers.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Comparison of Observations of Sporadic-E Layers in the Nighttime and Daytime Mid-Latitude Ionosphere

A comparison of numerous rocket experiments to investigate mid-latitude sporadic-E layers is presented. Electric field and plasma density data gathered on sounding rockets launched in the presence of sporadic-E layers and QP radar echoes reveal a complex electrodynamics including both DC parameters and plasma waves detected over a large range of scales. We show both DC and wave electric fields and discuss their relationship to intense sporadic-E layers in both nighttime and daytime conditions. Where available, neutral wind observations provide the complete electrodynamic picture revealing an essential source of free energy that both sets up the layers and drives them unstable. Electric field data from the nighttime experiments reveal the presence of km-scale waves as well as well-defined packets of broadband (10's of meters to meters) irregularities. What is surprising is that in both the nighttime and daytime experiments, neither the large scale nor short scale waves appear to be distinctly organized by the sporadic-E density layer itself. The observations are discussed in the context of current theories regarding sporadic-E layer generation and quasi-periodic echoes.

Pfaff, R.↗

Deployment priority of public charging speeds for increasing battery electric vehicle usability

To inform charger deployment decisions, this paper aims to understand the potential utilization and deployment priority for public charging infrastructure. A data-driven Cumulative Public Recharging (CPR) model is developed to explore the travel patterns by using 2017 National Household Travel Survey data. Given the daily trip sequence, trip distance, and dwell times, the study examines the daily expected driving range and BEV feasibility under different charging speeds, battery capacity, and charging behaviors. The results suggest that more advanced public chargers increase the daily expected driving range. Home charging is sufficient for most daily short-distance trips while public chargers are still needed for medium- and long-distance trips. Extreme fast charging (xFC) may not be necessary for people with home charging but could be more useful for people without home charging and for urgent charging. In conclusion, xFC becomes even less important to drivers with longer BEV ranges, a finding that contradicts conventional thinking.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Advanced single permanent magnet axipolar ironless stator ac motor for electric passenger vehicles

A program was conducted to design and develop an advanced-concept motor specifically created for propulsion of electric vehicles with increased range, reduced energy consumption, and reduced life-cycle costs in comparison with conventional systems. The motor developed is a brushless, dc, rare-earth cobalt, permanent magnet, axial air gap inductor machine that uses an ironless stator. Air cooling is inherent provided by the centrifugal-fan action of the rotor poles. An extensive design phase was conducted, which included analysis of the system performance versus the SAE J227a(D) driving cycle. A proof-of-principle model was developed and tested, and a functional model was developed and tested. Full generator-level testing was conducted on the functional model, recording electromagnetic, thermal, aerodynamic, and acoustic noise data. The machine demonstrated 20.3 kW output at 1466 rad/s and 160 dc. The novel ironless stator demonstated the capability to continuously operate at peak current. The projected system performance based on the use of a transistor inverter is 23.6 kW output power at 1466 rad/s and 83.3 percent efficiency. Design areas of concern regarding electric vehicle applications include the inherently high windage loss and rotor inertia.

Beauchamp, E. D.↗

Modeling of RMS Current in CSI Filter Capacitor and Minimum Conduction Loss Operation of CSI-Fed PMSM Drives for Traction Applications

This paper presents a new minimum conduction loss (MCL) torque control algorithm for current source inverter- (CSI-) fed permanent-magnet synchronous machine drives that improves the overall machine drive efficiency by minimizing the combined conduction losses in the inverter and machine at each operating point. First, analytical models of conduction losses in CSI-fed motor drives are presented, and a closed-form expression for optimal d-axis stator current to achieve MCL operation is derived. An expression for the rms current in both wye- and delta-connected CSI output capacitors is derived. A detailed simulation model that emulates the operation of a 100 kW SiC CSI-fed integrated machine drive (IMD) has been developed based on experimental results and finite element analysis. This simulation model is used to evaluate the proposed MCL control algorithm applied to a CSI-fed IMD system for a battery-electric vehicle traction drive, and the predicted total drive system loss with MCL control is compared to predicted losses with maximum-torque-per-ampere (MTPA) and minimum dc-link current (MDCC) control. Results show that MCL control can achieve loss reductions compared to the other two control algorithms over a wide range of operating conditions, with significant loss reductions >20% in the medium-speed regime.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessment of Light-Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles in the United States, 2010 – 2021

The number of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) sold in the United States has consistently grown since 2010, reaching 4% of the light-duty vehicle market in 2021. This report examines how the characteristics for these PEVs has changed over this decade, evaluating range, energy efficiency, costs, and performance. Given the vehicle characteristics, this report estimates miles driven, electricity consumption, petroleum reduction, and greenhouse gas emissions attributable to electric vehicles. This report also explores vehicle manufacturing and battery production, considering supply chains from battery cells to assembly. Over 2.1 million PEVs have been sold in the United States through December 2021, with 1.3 million of these all fully-electric battery electric vehicles (BEV), and 800,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) which have the capability of using gasoline. The sales-weighted average range for BEVs reached 290 miles in 2021 and 28 miles for PHEVs. We estimate that electric vehicles have driven 68 billion miles on electricity since 2010, thereby reducing national gasoline consumption by 0.54% in 2021 and 2.5 billion gallons cumulatively through 2021. In 2021, PEVs used 6.1 terawatt-hours of electricity to drive 19.1 billion miles, offsetting 700 million gallons of gasoline. We find that this fuel switching reduced consumer fuel costs by $1.3 billion in 2021. Since 2010, 65% of PEVs sold in the United States have been assembled domestically, and over 110 gigawatt-hours of lithium-ion batteries have been installed in vehicles to date.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Human Exploration of Phobos

This study developed, analyzed, and compared mission architectures for human exploration of Mars' Moons within the context of an Evolvable Mars Campaign. METHODS: All trades assumed conjunction class missions to Phobos (approximately 500 days in Mars system) as it was considered the driving case for the transportation architecture. All architectures assumed that the Mars Transit Habitat would remain in a High Mars Orbit with crewmembers transferring between HMO and Phobos in a small crew taxi vehicle. A reference science / exploration program was developed including performance of a standard set of tasks at 55 locations on the Phobos surface. Detailed EVA timelines were developed using realistic flight rules to accomplish the reference science tasks using exploration systems ranging from jetpacks to multi-person pressurized excursion vehicles combined with Phobos surface and orbital (L1, L4/L5, 20km Distant Retrograde Orbit) habitat options. Detailed models of propellant mass, crew time, science productivity, radiation exposure, systems and consumables masses, and other figures of merit were integrated to enable quantitative comparison of different architectural options. Options for pre-staging assets using solar electric propulsion (SEP) vs. delivering all systems with the crew were also evaluated. Seven discrete mission architectures were evaluated. RESULTS: The driving consideration for habitat location (Phobos surface vs. orbital) was radiation exposure, with an estimated reduction in cumulative mission radiation exposure of up to 34% (vs. Mars orbital mission) when the habitat is located on the Phobos surface, compared with only 3-6% reduction for a habitat in a 20km DRO. The exploration utility of lightweight unpressurized excursion vehicles was limited by the need to remain within 20 minutes of Solar Particle Event radiation protection combined with complex GN&C systems required by the non-intuitive and highly-variable gravitational environment. Two-person pressurized excursion vehicles as well as mobile surface habitats offer significant exploration capability and operational benefits compared with unpressurized EVA mobility systems at the cost of increased system and propellant mass. Mechanical surface translation modes (i.e. hopping) were modeled and offer potentially significant propellant savings and the possibility of extended exploration operations between crewed missions. Options for extending the utilization of the crew taxi vehicle were examined, including use as an exploration asset for Phobos surface exploration (when combined with an alternate mobility system) and as an EVA platform, both on Phobos and for contingency EVA on the Mars Transit Habitat. CONCLUSIONS: Human exploration of Phobos offers a scientifically meaningful first step towards human Mars surface missions that develops and validates transportation, habitation, and exploration systems and operations in advance of the Mars landing systems.

Abercromby, Andrew F. J.↗

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Autonomie Simulation Datasets in Support of U.S. DOT-NHTSA Advanced Vehicle Technology Research

Understanding how new vehicle technologies affect fuel economy and energy use is critical to the regulatory work performed by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which sets Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975. In order to support this work, Argonne National Laboratory uses Autonomie, a full-vehicle simulation tool, to evaluate advanced powertrain architectures and their effects on vehicle energy consumption and performance. A wide range of vehicle classes has been assessed (i.e., internal combustion engine vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery-electric vehicles, and fuel cell electric vehicles), as well as the effects of various technology improvements such as lightweighting, aerodynamic refinements, and low-rolling-resistance tires. Simulations have been run across multiple drive cycles to capture fuel and electricity use under realistic operating conditions. The resulting datasets include detailed vehicle-level results, model assumptions, and validation reports, all of which have been made publicly available through NHTSA in support of the 2023 notice of proposed rulemaking covering light-duty vehicles for model years 2027 to 2035. These data are critical to stakeholders working in fuel economy regulation, vehicle technology assessment, and energy policy analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗