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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Science Workflows using Kamodo

Kamodo is a powerful python software package based on data functionalization. Once a given data set is functionalized, a large variety of capabilities are easily accessible in Kamodo, including unit conversions, custom analysis via function composition, interactive publication quality visualizations, and LaTeX encoding. The entirety of capabilities available in Kamodo are easily applied to both simulated and observed data across the multiple domains of Heliophysics and even in other disciplines. This work includes a variety of science workflows using Kamodo in combination with other resources, including with other python software packages, that expand the utility of Kamodo even further. These workflows include model-data comparisons, ensemble modeling examples, satellite mission planning examples, and other applications, all of which are freely available on CCMC’s Kamodo Github page for the community to adapt to their own uses (https://github.com/nasa/Kamodo). We invite the community to use these workflows and to contribute their own to share.

python↗
NASA NTRS2023

Diverging Trends in Rain-on-Snow Over High Mountain Asia

Rain-on-snow (ROS) over snow-dominated regions such as High Mountain Asia (HMA) modulates snowmelt and runoff and is key contributor in influencing water availability and hazards (e.g., floods and landslides). We studied the trends in ROS in HMA over the past two decades from 2001 to 2018 using the land surface model Noah-MP driven by an ensemble precipitation data set. Our results show that changes in precipitation phase and rainfall are altering ROS. Because of the strong physical heterogeneity and atmospheric dynamics of HMA, ROS characteristics and trends are region-dependent and ROS occurs predominantly over the Indus, Ganges-Brahmaputra, and northwestern basins. In the Indus, ROS representing ∼5% of the annual precipitation and ∼20% of the annual snowmelt, has an increasing trend. This is contrary to the Ganges-Brahmaputra characterized by decreasing ROS trends, where it represents ∼11% of the annual precipitation and ∼60% of the annual snowmelt. In the northwestern basins, ROS has bidirectional trends due to elevation patterns and trends in rainfall, and it constitutes ∼5 to ∼10% of the annual precipitation. Increasing trends in ROS over Indus contribute to reducing the snowpack in late summer, with concerns of reduced water availability and increased groundwater exploitation. Similarly, because of its high amount and contribution to snowmelt, the decreasing ROS trends in the Ganges-Brahmaputra will have consequences of decreased recharge from the headwaters and exacerbated use of groundwater unless increasing trends in rainfall compensate for the decreasing snowmelt. These results provide new insights on ROS-driven changes in the hydrological cycle over HMA.

rain-on-snow↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-guided Multi-Map variables for ensemble refinement of molecular movies

Driving molecular dynamics simulations with data-guided collective variables offer a promising strategy to recover thermodynamic information from structure-centric experiments. In this study, the three-dimensional electron density of a protein, as it would be determined by cryo-EM or x-ray crystallography, is used to achieve simultaneously free-energy costs of conformational transitions and refined atomic structures. Unlike previous density-driven molecular dynamics methodologies that determine only the best map-model fits, our work employs the recently developed Multi-Map methodology to monitor concerted movements within equilibrium, non-equilibrium, and enhanced sampling simulations. Construction of all-atom ensembles along the chosen values of the Multi-Map variable enables simultaneous estimation of average properties, as well as real-space refinement of the structures contributing to such averages. Using three proteins of increasing size, we demonstrate that biased simulation along the reaction coordinates derived from electron densities can capture conformational transitions between known intermediates. The simulated pathways appear reversible with minimal hysteresis and require only low-resolution density information to guide the transition. The induced transitions also produce estimates for free energy differences that can be directly compared to experimental observables and population distributions. The refined model quality is superior compared to those found in the Protein Data Bank. We find that the best quantitative agreement with experimental free-energy differences is obtained using medium resolution density information coupled to comparatively large structural transitions. Practical considerations for probing the transitions between multiple intermediate density states are also discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2023

Non-Gaussian Ensemble Filtering and Adaptive Inflation for Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

The rank histogram filter (RHF) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) are assessed for soil moisture estimation using perfect model (identical twin) synthetic data assimilation experiments. The primary motivation is to gauge the impact on analysis quality attributable to the consideration of non-Gaussian forecast error distributions. Using the NASA Catchment land surface model, the two filters are compared at 18 globally-distributed single-catchment locations for a 10-year experiment period. It is shown that both filters yield adequate estimates of soil moisture, with the RHF having a small but significant performance advantage. Most notably, the RHF systematically increases the normalized information contribution (NIC) score of the mean absolute bias by 0.05 over that of the EnKF for surface, root-zone and profile soil moisture. The RHF also increases the NIC score for the anomaly correlation of surface soil moisture by 0.02 over that of the EnKF (at a 5% significance level). Results also demonstrate that the performance of both filters is somewhat improved when the ensemble priors are adaptively inflated to offset the negative effects of systematic errors.

Soil moisture↗
DOE OSTI2016

Data assimilation in a solar dynamo model using Ensemble Kalman Filters: sensitivity and robustness in reconstruction of meridional flow speed

We implement an Ensemble Kalman Filter procedure using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed for assimilating “synthetic” meridional flow-speed data in a Babcock–Leighton-type flux-transport solar dynamo model. By performing several “observing system simulation experiments,” we reconstruct time variation in meridional flow speed and analyze sensitivity and robustness of reconstruction. Using 192 ensemble members including 10 observations, each with 4% error, we find that flow speed is reconstructed best if observations of near-surface poloidal fields from low latitudes and tachocline toroidal fields from midlatitudes are assimilated. If observations include a mixture of poloidal and toroidal fields from different latitude locations, reconstruction is reasonably good for ⩽40% error in low-latitude data, even if observational error in polar region data becomes 200%, but deteriorates when observational error increases in low- and midlatitude data. Solar polar region observations are known to contain larger errors than those in low latitudes; our forward operator (a flux-transport dynamo model here) can sustain larger errors in polar region data, but is more sensitive to errors in low-latitude data. An optimal reconstruction is obtained if an assimilation interval of 15 days is used; 10- and 20-day assimilation intervals also give reasonably good results. Assimilation intervals <5 days do not produce faithful reconstructions of flow speed, because the system requires a minimum time to develop dynamics to respond to flow variations. Reconstruction also deteriorates if an assimilation interval >45 days is used, because the system’s inherent memory interferes with its short-term dynamics during a substantially long run without updating.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Non-Gaussian Ensemble Filtering and Adaptive Inflation for Soil Moisture Data Assimilation

The rank histogram filter (RHF) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) are assessed for soil moisture estimation using perfect model (identical twin) synthetic data assimilation experiments. The primary motivation is to gauge the impact on analysis quality attributable to the consideration of non-Gaussian forecast error distributions. Using the NASA Catchment land surface model, the two filters are compared at 18 globally distributed single-catchment locations for a 10-yr experiment period. It is shown that both filters yield adequate estimates of soil moisture, with the RHF having a small but significant performance advantage. Most notably, the RHF consistently increases the normalized information contribution (NIC) score of the mean absolute bias by 0.05 over that of the EnKF for surface, root-zone, and profile soil moisture. The RHF also increases the NIC score for the anomaly correlation of surface soil moisture by 0.02 over that of the EnKF (at a 5% significance level). Results additionally demonstrate that the performance of both filters is somewhat improved when the ensemble priors are adaptively inflated to offset the negative effects of systematic errors.

Rolf Reichle↗
DOE OSTI2024

Visualisation and outlier detection for probability density function ensembles

Abstract Exploratory data analysis (EDA) for functional data—data objects where observations are entire functions—is a difficult problem that has seen significant attention in recent literature. This surge in interest is motivated by the ubiquitous nature of functional data, which are prevalent in applications across fields such as meteorology, biology, medicine and engineering. Empirical probability density functions (PDFs) can be viewed as constrained functional data objects that must integrate to one and be nonnegative. They show up in contexts such as yearly income distributions, zooplankton size structure in oceanography and in connectivity patterns in the brain, among others. While PDF data are certainly common in modern research, little attention has been given to EDA specifically for PDFs. In this paper, we extend several methods for EDA on functional data for PDFs and compare them on simulated data that exhibit different types of variation, designed to mimic that seen in real‐world applications. We then use our new methods to perform EDA on the breakthrough curves observed in gas transport simulations for underground fracture networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A deep learning-accelerated data assimilation and forecasting workflow for commercial-scale geologic carbon storage

Fast assimilation of monitoring data to update forecasts of pressure buildup and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plume migration under geologic uncertainties is a challenging problem in geologic carbon storage. The high computational cost of data assimilation with a high-dimensional parameter space impedes fast decision-making for commercial-scale reservoir management. We propose to leverage physical understandings of porous medium flow behavior with deep learning techniques to develop a fast data assimilation-reservoir response forecasting workflow. Applying an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates geologic properties and predicts reservoir performance with quantified uncertainty from pressure history and CO 2 plumes interpreted through seismic inversion. As the most computationally expensive component in such a workflow is reservoir simulation, we developed surrogate models to predict dynamic pressure and CO 2 plume extents under multi-well injection. The surrogate models employ deep convolutional neural networks, specifically, a wide residual network and a residual U-Net. The workflow is validated against a flat threedimensional reservoir model representative of a clastic shelf depositional environment. Intelligent treatments are applied to bridge between quantities in a true-3D reservoir model and those in a single-layer reservoir model. The workflow can complete history matching and reservoir forecasting with uncertainty quantification in less than one hour on a mainstream personal workstation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Molecular simulation data for 'Data-guided Multi-Map variables for ensemble refinement of molecular movies'

These trajectories, scripts, and analysis performed on Summit underly the work published as 'Data-guided Multi-Map variables for ensemble refinement of molecular movies'. The trajectories include equilibrium and non-equilibrium sampling of ADK, CODH, and FLPP3, the scripts used to build the systems, and the scripts used to analyze the output. The directory structure is explained further in an internal README file.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-inspired spatiotemporal-graph AI ensemble for the detection of higher order wave mode signals of spinning binary black hole mergers

We present a new class of AI models for the detection of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing binary black hole mergers whose waveforms include the higher order gravitational wave modes ($\ell$, |m|) = {(2,2), (2,1), (3,3), (3,2), (4,4)}, and mode mixing effects in the $\ell$ = 3, |m| = 2 harmonics. These AI models combine hybrid dilated convolution neural networks to accurately model both short- and long-range temporal sequential information of gravitational waves; and graph neural networks to capture spatial correlations among gravitational wave observatories to consistently describe and identify the presence of a signal in a three detector network encompassing the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. We first trained these spatiotemporal-graph AI models using synthetic noise, using 1.2 million modeled waveforms to densely sample this signal manifold, within 1.7 h using 256 NVIDIA A100 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. This distributed training approach exhibited optimal classification performance, and strong scaling up to 512 NVIDIA A100 GPUs. With these AI ensembles we processed data from a three detector network, and found that an ensemble of 4 AI models achieves state-of-the-art performance for signal detection, and reports two misclassifications for every decade of searched data. We distributed AI inference over 128 GPUs in the Polaris supercomputer and 128 nodes in the Theta supercomputer, and completed the processing of a decade of gravitational wave data from a three detector network within 3.5 h. Finally, we fine-tuned these AI ensembles to process the entire month of February 2020, which is part of the O3b LIGO/Virgo observation run, and found 6 gravitational waves, concurrently identified in Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo data, and zero false positives. This analysis was completed in one hour using one NVIDIA A100 GPU.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

MINE: maximally informative next experiment—toward a new GWAS experimental design and methodology

Abstract The computational methodology of Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS) currently has several limitations: (i) the number of observations (rows) on a quantitative trait tends to be smaller than the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (columns) in the design matrix; (ii) each SNP is usually modeled separately, failing to acknowledge interaction between each other (ie epistasis); (iii) there is implicit linkage disequilibrium (LD) between neighboring SNPs due to their linkage. To overcome these issues, we developed a tool that uses ensemble methods to fit mixed linear models to GWAS data, and these ensemble methods include the development of a new experimental design approach in GWAS, which uses the resultant models and data to select the next informative experiment over time. This new adaptive and staged approach for GWAS experimental design was developed and tested in a 3 yr adaptive model-guided discovery experiment against a fixed classical design. In Sorghum bicolor a total of 79, 86, and 78 accessions were tested in years 1, 2, and 3, respectively out of 343 accessions available in the Bioenergy Association Panel (BAP) each identified for 232,303 SNPs, 1 every 2–3 kb in the genomes. We demonstrated the feasibility of MINE enacted with 8 people in the field per year over 3 yr vs in 1 large classical design enacted with 20 people in 1 yr. The MINE results for chromosomal regions identified controlling dry weight were confirmed against results from previous sorghum GWAS experiments and 1 large classical design for the BAP panel.

Genetics & Heredity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ensemble Forecasting/Assimilation/Emissions Estimation with WRF-Chem/DART: Accomplishments, Lessons Learned, and Future Plans

Over the past ten years, we have been conducting research on regional ensemble atmospheric composition forecasting/data assimilation/emissions estimation with WRF-Chem/DART. WRF- Chem/DART integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with online chemistry (WRF-Chem) into the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). DART is an ensemble data assimilation system based on the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) with adaptive inflation, localization (physical and state space), and an optional non-Gaussian formulation of the EAKF. DART includes assimilation of meteorological and limited chemical observations. WRF-Chem/DART extends DART to include assimilation of: MOPITT CO; IASI CO and O3; MODIS AOD; OMI O3, NO2, and SO2; TROPOMI CO, O3, NO2, and SO2, TES CO, CO2 (research mode), O3, NH3, and CH4 (research mode); CrIS CO, O3, NH3, CH4 (research mode), and PAN; SCIAMACHY NO2; GOME2a NO2; MLS O3 and HNO3; and proxy TEMPO O3, and NO2 satellite retrievals as raw retrievals or as ‘compact phase space retrievals’ (CPSRs) for profile retrievals. WRF-Chem/DART also assimilates in situ atmospheric composition measurements and uses the ‘state augmentation method’ for emissions estimation. In our presentation, we will provide an overview of WRF-Chem/DART: • applications and results; • lessons learned from: (i) independent versus joint assimilation; (ii) total/partial column versus profile retrieval assimilation; (iii) joint in situ and retrieval assimilation; (iv) assimilation at grid resolutions ranging from 100 km to 4 km; (v) dynamic emissions estimation; and • future work related to wildfire emissions estimation and intercomparison of CMAQ (online)/JEDI and CMAQ (online and offline)/DART.

WRF-Chem/DART↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field and Model Data Associated with the Manuscript “Drivers of Streamflow Intermittency in Humid Regions: 1. Evaluating Above- and Below-ground Controls of Flow Persistence in a Forested Catchment”

This package contains field data, modeling files, and scripts supporting the investigation of the drivers of streamflow intermittency in a forested catchment. It includes the field data collected from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys, ground penetrating radar (GPR), continuous self-potential (SP) monitoring, electromagnetic (EM) imaging, groundwater and stilling well. In addition, it contains the data and results of the coupled water- and electrical-flow model developed using the COMSOL Multiphysics and Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), as well as software files and Jupyter notebooks used to process the data and generate figures in the manuscript submitted for peer review. The data archive is organized in the following directories: 1) Climate Includes hourly precipitation and daily evapotranspiration time series (2024 – 2025) provided as CSV files, alongside a text file detailing dataset units. 2) Coupled_model Contains two subfolders: Synthetic and Field_Application subfolder. Synthetic subfolder contains the ATS XML input script (can be opened using any code editor) for the four synthetic hydrological cases tested (Connected and gaining, Connected and losing, Disconnected and losing, and dry stream). It also includes other experimental cases to test the influence of precipitation and concentration gradient. For each synthetic case, the flow model simulation is executed using the ATS XML scripts and the included Python script (generate_data_set.py) to convert ATS output to COMSOL-ready input. COMSOL Multiphysics template (.mph can be opened with the commercial software COMSOL and requires a license) is executed using the ATS output data to simulate the potential field. It also includes the Synthetic_model_plot.ipynb (can be opened using any code editor) to visualize the SP result and generate manuscript figures. The data subfolder contains mesh files to run both the ATS (.exo and .stl files can be viewed using Paraview; .h5 files can be opened using HDFView software and h5py Python package) and COMSOL models. Field_Application subfolder contains two subfolders: ES_MDA_inversion and Final_Model. ES_MDA_inversion contains the Python script (.py can be opened using any code editor) and SP observation data used to run the Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) inversion sequence to get the optimal model parameters. The Final_model subfolder contains the ATS XML input scripts, data files, output data for the two SP sites. The same workflow steps outlined for the Synthetic subfolder apply here. It also contains the Jupyter notebook (Plot_final_calib.ipynb) to visualize the results of the modeled SP, stream-groundwater exchange and moisture content. 3) Discharge Includes the electrical conductivity (EC) time series (provided as CSV files) from salt slug injections. It also includes the Jupyter notebook (Discharge_process.ipynyb) used to estimate discharge. All discharge measurements collated into rating_curve_processed.csv 4) EM Contains the CSV file of the EM data from the DUALEM-42, including spatial coordinates (x, y, z), apparent conductivity, and in-phase measurements at 2 m coil separations for horizontal coplanar (HCP) and perpendicular (PRP) geometries. 5) ERT Contains raw resistivity data (provided as CSV files), spatial location of each of the electrodes (provided as CSV files), and files used for the resistivity inversion (.resipy can be opened with the open-source ResIPy software). 6) GPR Includes GPR field datasets collected at 100 MHz and 250 MHz antenna frequencies, along with the processing/interpretation project file (GPR_process.gpz can be viewed using EKKO_Project 6, a commercial software by Sensors & Software that requires a license). 7) Slug_test Includes the slug test data at all the groundwater wells provided as CSV files, as well as the Jupyter notebook (Slug_test.ipynb) for calculating hydraulic conductivity. 8) SP Contains the SP data collected in field at the two SP sites (one in the perennial reach and the other in the intermittent reach), provided as DAT files. 9) Well_data Contains two subfolders: 1) Raw, which provides unprocessed pressure, electrical conductivity and temperature timeseries downloaded from the loggers in all the groundwater and stilling wells, and 2) Processed, which contains sorted, QA/QC timeseries data for each well. The data archive also contains data_process.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook used for field data analysis and generating figures (plotting well, SP, climate, and discharge data, as well as calculating head gradient at sites with nested groundwater wells). It also includes DTW.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook containing the code for the dynamic time warping (DTW) with sliding window to evaluate SP signal synchronicity.

ATS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Integration of microseismic monitoring data into coupled flow and geomechanical models with ensemble Kalman filter

Abstract Hydraulic stimulation of low‐permeability rocks in enhanced geothermal systems, shale resources, and CO 2 storage aquifers can trigger microseismic events, also known as microearthquakes (MEQs). The distribution of microseismic source locations in the reservoir may reveal important information about the distribution of hydraulic and geomechanical rock properties. In this paper, we present a framework for conditioning heterogeneous rock permeability and geomechanical property distributions on microseismic data. To simulate the multiphysics processes in these systems, we combine a fully coupled flow and geomechanical model with the Mohr‐Coulomb type rock failure criterion. The resulting multiphysics simulation constitutes the forecast model that relates microseismic source locations to reservoir rock properties. We adopt this forward model in an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation framework to jointly estimate reservoir permeability and geomechanical property distributions from injection‐induced microseismic response measurements. We show that integration of a large number of spatially correlated microseismic data with practical ensemble sizes can lead to severe underestimation of ensemble spread, and eventually ensemble collapse. To mitigate the variance underestimation issue, two low‐rank data representation schemes are presented and discussed. In the first approach, microseismic data are projected onto a low‐dimensional subspace defined by the left singular vectors of the perturbed observation matrix. The second method uses a coarser grid for representing the microseismic data. A series of numerical experiments is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods and to illustrate their applicability for assimilating microseismic data into coupled flow and geomechanical forward models to estimate multiphysics rock properties.

Tarrahi, Mohammadali↗
NASA NTRS2017

Similarity Assessment of Land Surface Model Outputs in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/ upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.

land surface models↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty in Soil Moisture Retrievals: an Ensemble Approach Using SMOS L-Band Microwave Data

The uncertainty of soil moisture (SM) retrievals from satellite brightness temperature (TB) observations depends primarily on the choice of radiative transfer model (RTM) parameters, prior SM information and TB inputs. This paper studies the sensitivity of several (quasi-)operational and experimental SM retrieval products from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission to these choices at 11 reference sites, located in 7 watersheds across the United States (US). Different literature-based RTM parameter sets cause large biases between retrievals. Whereas typical RTM parameter sets are calibrated for SM retrievals, it is shown that a parameter set carefully optimized for TB forward modeling can also be used for retrieving SM. It is also shown that the inclusion of dynamic prior SM estimates in a Bayesian retrieval scheme can strongly improve SM retrievals, regardless of the choice of RTM parameters, and that the use of multi-angular and multi-polarization TB does not necessarily lead to superior retrievals compared to retrievals based on TB data at a single incidence angle and polarization. The second part of this paper evaluates ensemble uncertainty metrics for SM retrievals obtained by propagating a wide range of RTM parameters through the RTM. As expected for bounded variables, the spread in the ensemble SM retrievals is smallest for wet and dry SM values and highest for intermediate SM values. After removal of the strong long-term mean bias associated with the RTM parameter values for individual ensemble members, the remaining anomaly ensemble SM spread of 0.037 cu m/cu m approximates the actual time series unbiased root-mean-square-difference of 0.042 cu m/cu m between ensemble mean retrievals and in situ reference data across the reference sites. However, the temporal variability in the anomaly ensemble spread reveals higher-order biases in the retrieval error, which should be accounted for when characterizing retrieval error.

Jan Quets↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simultaneous inference of equation of state parameters and unknown data errors with uncertainty quantification via hierarchical Bayesian posterior maximization

Equations of state (EOSs) are a key component in running hydrodynamic simulations as they relate the thermodynamic states for the material. The Davis reactants EOS is commonly used for modeling high explosives (HEs), and the EOS model parameters are calibrated using material specific data. The calibrations are often performed with uncertainty quantification via Bayesian inference to account for uncertainty in the data and generate ensembles of likely parameters. However, there are relatively few HE data sets to use for calibration and many are historical and lack error information. In this work, we simultaneously calibrate the Davis reactants EOS model parameters and unknown data error terms for the high explosive PBX 9501. To quantify the uncertainty in the models and the data, we use a Bayesian framework for the calibration and compute the hierarchical Bayesian posterior distribution with both a posteriori maximization approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In general, we find that, given our assumptions, the two approaches result in similar calibrated parameters, posterior covariance matrices, and insights about the parameters but that the posterior maximization requires far less computational resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Event Classifications on DNE2 Main Experiment Data using a Convolutional Neural Network Ensemble

The Dynamic Networks (DN) Experiment for FY24 (DNE2) is an experiment within DN with the goal of quantitatively evaluating the effectiveness of solutions developed so far by various researchers under the Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) program using a shared set of metrics and datasets. A key component of this experiment is the mimicking of a signature processing pipeline, and comparing currently accepted and standard-use processing methods to more state-of-the-art processes developed under DN. In this work, we focus specifically on the Event Characterization (EC) Focus Area (FA) of the pipeline, where a seismic event’s magnitude, yield and class are identified. We use Deep Learning (DL) to classify the type of events being processed as either earthquakes (EQs) or explosions (EXs) for three iterations of experiment datasets. The model is noticeably more confident and accurate in classifying explosions than earthquakes, reflecting a known shortcoming of the model, that being of a bias towards predicting explosions over earthquakes in the west coast due to training data biases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗