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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Disentangling Rotational Dynamics and Ordering Transitions in a System of Self-Organizing Protein Nanorods via Rotationally Invariant Latent Representations

The dynamics of complex ordering systems with active rotational degrees of freedom exemplified by protein self-assembly is explored using a machine learning workflow that combines deep learning-based semantic segmentation and rotationally invariant variational autoencoder-based analysis of orientation and shape evolution. The latter allows for disentanglement of the particle orientation from other degrees of freedom and compensates for lateral shifts. The disentangled representations in the latent space encode the rich spectrum of local transitions that can now be visualized and explored via continuous variables. The time dependence of ensemble averages allows insight into the time dynamics of the system and, in particular, illustrates the presence of the potential ordering transition. Finally, analysis of the latent variables along the single-particle trajectory allows tracing these parameters on a single-particle level. The proposed approach is expected to be universally applicable for the description of the imaging data in optical, scanning probe, and electron microscopy seeking to understand the dynamics of complex systems where rotations are a significant part of the process.

representation learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spin squeezing in an ensemble of nitrogen–vacancy centres in diamond

Spin-squeezed states provide a seminal example of how the structure of quantum mechanical correlations can be controlled to produce metrologically useful entanglement. These squeezed states have been demonstrated in a wide variety of quantum systems ranging from atoms in optical cavities to trapped ion crystals. By contrast, despite their numerous advantages as practical sensors, spin ensembles in solid-state materials have yet to be controlled with sufficient precision to generate targeted entanglement such as spin squeezing. Here we report the experimental demonstration of spin squeezing in a solid-state spin system. Our experiments are performed on a strongly interacting ensemble of nitrogen–vacancy colour centres in diamond at room temperature, and squeezing (−0.50 ± 0.13 dB) below the noise of uncorrelated spins is generated by the native magnetic dipole–dipole interaction between nitrogen–vacancy centres. To generate and detect squeezing in a solid-state spin system, we overcome several challenges. First, we develop an approach, using interaction-enabled noise spectroscopy, to characterize the quantum projection noise in our system without directly resolving the spin probability distribution. Second, noting that the random positioning of spin defects severely limits the generation of spin squeezing, we implement a pair of strategies aimed at isolating the dynamics of a relatively ordered sub-ensemble of nitrogen–vacancy centres. Furthermore, our results open the door to entanglement-enhanced metrology using macroscopic ensembles of optically active spins in solids.

Atomic and molecular physics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Short-lead seasonal precipitation forecast in northeastern Brazil using an ensemble of artificial neural networks

This study assesses the deterministic and probabilistic forecasting skill of a 1-month-lead ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks (EANN) based on low-frequency climate oscillation indices. The predictand is the February-April (FMA) rainfall in the Brazilian state of Ceará, which is a prominent subject in climate forecasting studies due to its high seasonal predictability. Additionally, the study proposes combining the EANN with dynamical models into a hybrid multi-model ensemble (MME). The forecast verification is carried out through a leave-one-out cross-validation based on 40 years of data. The EANN forecasting skill is compared with traditional statistical models and the dynamical models that compose Ceará’s operational seasonal forecasting system. A spatial comparison showed that the EANN was among the models with the smallest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Ranked Probability Score (RPS) in most regions. Moreover, the analysis of the area-aggregated reliability showed that the EANN is better calibrated than the individual dynamical models and has better resolution than Multinomial Logistic Regression for above-normal (AN) and below-normal (BN) categories. It is also shown that combining the EANN and dynamical models into a hybrid MME reduces the overconfidence of the extreme categories observed in a dynamically-based MME, improving the reliability of the forecasting system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nanoscale wetting controls reactive Pd ensembles in synthesis of dilute PdAu alloy catalysts

The performance of bimetallic dilute alloy catalysts is largely determined by the size of minority metal ensembles on the nanoparticle surface. By analyzing the synthesis of catalysts comprising Pd 8 Au 92 nanoparticles supported on silica using surface-sensitive techniques, we report that whether Pd overgrowth occurs before or after Au nanoparticle deposition onto the support controls the surface Pd ensemble size and abundance. These differences in Pd ensembles influence catalytic reactivity in H 2 –D 2 isotope exchange and benzaldehyde hydrogenation, which, in correlation with theoretical calculations, is used to elucidate the active site(s) in each reaction. To clarify how the synthetic sequence controls the formation of Pd ensembles, we combine numerical wetting calculations and molecular dynamics simulations (with a machine-learned force field) to visualize Pd deposition and migration on the nanoparticle surface, respectively. Our results suggest that the nanoparticle–support interface restricts nanoparticle accessibility to Pd deposition, which consequently controls the Pd ensemble size, illustrating the critical role of nanoscale wetting phenomena during bimetallic catalyst preparation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence for nitrogen binding to surface defects for topological insulator Bi 2 Se 3

Using scanning tunneling spectroscopy and theoretical simulations we have studied the effects of nitrogen gas exposure on the electronic density of states of Bi 2 Se 3 , a well-studied topological insulator. In carefully controlled measurements, Bi 2 Se 3 crystals were initially cleaved in a helium gas environment and then exposed to a 22 SCFH flow of ultra-high purity N 2 gas. We observe a resulting change in the spectral curves, with the exposure effect saturating after approximately 50 min, ultimately bringing the Dirac point about 50 meV closer to the Fermi level. Furthermore, these results are compared to density functional theory calculations, which support a picture of N 2 molecules physisorbing near Se vacancies. Furthermore, ab initio molecular dynamics simulations aided by a Blue Moon ensemble method reveal the dissociative adsorption of N 2 molecules which then bind strongly to Se vacancies at the surface. In this scenario, the binding of the N atom to a Se vacancy site removes the surface defect state created by the vacancy and changes the position of the Fermi energy with respect to the Dirac point.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth System Model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) are heavily used to provide inputs to sectoral impact and multisector dynamic models, which include representations of energy, water, land, economics, and their interactions. Therefore, representing the full range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability that ensembles of these models capture is critical to the exploration of the future co-evolution of the integrated human–Earth system. The pre-eminent source of these ensembles has been the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). With more modeling centers participating in each new CMIP phase, the size of the model archive is rapidly increasing, which can be intractable for impact modelers to effectively utilize due to computational constraints and the challenges of analyzing large datasets. In this work, we present a method to select a subset of the latest phase, CMIP6, featuring models for use as inputs to a sectoral impact or multisector dynamics models, while prioritizing preservation of the range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability in the full CMIP6 ensemble results. This method is intended to help impact modelers select climate information from the CMIP archive efficiently for use in downstream models that require global coverage of climate information. This is particularly critical for large-ensemble experiments of multisector dynamic models that may be varying additional features beyond climate inputs in a factorial design, thus putting constraints on the number of climate simulations that can be used. We focus on temperature and precipitation outputs of CMIP6 models, as these are two of the most used variables among impact models, and many other key input variables for impacts are at least correlated with one or both of temperature and precipitation (e.g., relative humidity). Besides preserving the multi-model ensemble variance characteristics, we prioritize selecting CMIP6 models in the subset that preserve the very likely distribution of equilibrium climate sensitivity values as assessed by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. This approach could be applied to other output variables of climate models and, possibly when combined with emulators, offers a flexible framework for designing more efficient experiments on human-relevant climate impacts. It can also provide greater insight into the properties of existing CMIP6 models.

Snyder, Abigail C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The role of nonequilibrium LO phonons, Pauli exclusion, and intervalley pathways on the relaxation of hot carriers in InGaAs/InGaAsP multi-quantum-wells

Under continuous-wave laser excitation in a lattice-matched In 0.53 Ga 0.47 As/In 0.8 Ga 0.2 As 0.44 P 0.56 multi-quantum-well (MQW) structure, the carrier temperature extracted from photoluminescence rises faster for 405 nm compared with 980 nm excitation, as the injected carrier density increases. Ensemble Monte Carlo simulation of the carrier dynamics in the MQW system shows that this carrier temperature rise is dominated by nonequilibrium LO phonon effects, with the Pauli exclusion having a significant effect at high carrier densities. Further, we find a significant fraction of carriers reside in the satellite L-valleys for 405 nm excitation due to strong intervalley transfer, leading to a cooler steady-state electron temperature in the central valley compared with the case when intervalley transfer is excluded from the model. Good agreement between experiment and simulation has been shown, and detailed analysis has been presented. This study expands our knowledge of the dynamics of the hot carrier population in semiconductors, which can be applied to further limit energy loss in solar cells.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Theory of finite-temperature two-dimensional structural transformations in group-IV monochalcogenide monolayers

An account of two-dimensional (2D) structural transformations in 2D ferroelectrics predicts an evolution from a structure with Pnm 2 1 symmetry into a structure with square P4/nmm symmetry and is consistent with experimental evidence, while another argues for a transformation into a structure with rectangular Pnmm symmetry. An analysis of the assumptions made in these models is provided here, and six fundamental results concerning these transformations are contributed as follows: (i) Softened phonon modes produce rotational modes in these materials. (ii) The transformation to a structure with P4/nmm symmetry occurs at the lowest critical temperature T c . (iii) The hypothesis that one unidirectional optical vibrational mode underpins the 2D transformation is unwarranted. (iv) Being successively more constrained, a succession of critical temperatures ( T c < T c ' < T c " ) occurs in going from molecular dynamics calculations with the NPT and NVT ensembles onto models with unidirectional oscillations. (v) The choice of exchange-correlation functional impacts the estimate of the critical temperature. (vi) Importantly, the correct physical picture of these transformations is one in which rotational modes confer a topological character to the 2D transformation via the proliferation of vortices.

2d ferroelectrics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cavity-QED Quantum Simulator of Dynamical Phases of a Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer Superconductor

Herein we propose to simulate dynamical phases of a BCS superconductor using an ensemble of cold atoms trapped in an optical cavity. Effective Cooper pairs are encoded via the internal states of the atoms, and attractive interactions are realized via the exchange of virtual photons between atoms coupled to a common cavity mode. Control of the interaction strength combined with a tunable dispersion relation of the effective Cooper pairs allows exploration of the full dynamical phase diagram of the BCS model as a function of system parameters and the prepared initial state. Our proposal paves the way for the study of the nonequilibrium features of quantum magnetism and superconductivity by harnessing atom-light interactions in cold atomic gases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Process‐Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year —1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year —1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year —1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year —1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (—0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year —1 ). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conformational and oligomeric states of SPOP from small-angle X-ray scattering and molecular dynamics simulations

Speckle-type POZ protein (SPOP) is a substrate adaptor in the ubiquitin proteasome system, and plays important roles in cell-cycle control, development, and cancer pathogenesis. SPOP forms linear higher-order oligomers following an isodesmic self-association model. Oligomerization is essential for SPOP’s multivalent interactions with substrates, which facilitate phase separation and localization to biomolecular condensates. Structural characterization of SPOP in its oligomeric state and in solution is, however, challenging due to the inherent conformational and compositional heterogeneity of the oligomeric species. Here, we develop an approach to simultaneously and self-consistently characterize the conformational ensemble and the distribution of oligomeric states of SPOP by combining small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We build initial conformational ensembles of SPOP oligomers using coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations, and use a Bayesian/maximum entropy approach to refine the ensembles, along with the distribution of oligomeric states, against a concentration series of SAXS experiments. Our results suggest that SPOP oligomers behave as rigid, helical structures in solution, and that a flexible linker region allows SPOP’s substrate-binding domains to extend away from the core of the oligomers. Additionally, our results are in good agreement with previous characterization of the isodesmic self-association of SPOP. In the future, the approach presented here can be extended to other systems to simultaneously characterize structural heterogeneity and self-assembly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

27 AlNMR chemical shift of Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$ calculated from first principles: Assessment of error cancellation in chemically distinct reference and target systems

Predicting accurate nuclear magnetic resonance chemical shieldings relies upon cancellation of different types of errors between the theoretically calculated shielding constant of the analyte of interest and the reference. Often, the intrinsic error in computed shieldings due to basis sets, approximations in the Hamiltonian, description of the wave function, and dynamic effects is nearly identical between the analyte and reference, yet if the electronic structure or sensitivity to local environment differs dramatically, this cannot be taken for granted. Detailed prior work has examined the octahedral trivalent cation Al(H 2 O)$^{3+}_{6}$, accounting for ab initio intrinsic errors. However, the use of this species as a reference for the chemically distinct tetrahedral anion Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$ requires an understanding of how these errors cancel, in order to define the limits of accurately predicting 27 Al chemical shielding in Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$. In this work, we estimate the absolute shielding of the 27 Al nucleus in Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$ at the coupled cluster level (515.1± 5.3 ppm). Shielding sensitivity to the choice of method approximation and atomic basis sets used has been evaluated. Solvent and thermal effects are assessed through ensemble averaging techniques using ab-initio molecular dynamics. The contribution of each type of intrinsic error is assessed for the Al(H 2 O)$^{3+}_{6}$ and Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$ ions, revealing significant differences that fundamentally hamper the ability to accurately calculate the 27 Al chemical shift of Al(OH)$^{-}_{4}$ from first principles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble From 1920 to 2100

To provide context for observed sea level rise, the forced response (FR) in dynamic sea level (DSL) during the 20th and 21st centuries is examined in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LE). After accounting for simulation drift, which in the LE is sizable, the DSL FR is found to be complex, both in space and time. Its evolving character is suggested to arise from both the diversity and transient evolution of climate forcing agents and the slow adjustment timescales of the intermediate and deep oceans. Nonetheless, various intervals of spatially coherent change simulated for the recent past and near future are identified, and their characteristics and associated driving mechanisms are identified and discussed. The mid- to late-20th century DSL FR is characterized by an hemispherically asymmetric pattern of change, with depressed rates of rise in the northern oceans. There is also a dipole of change in the Southern Ocean caused by changes in near-surface zonal winds. Through the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a different pattern of rise emerges with elevated rates in the tropics and depressed rates at high latitudes. Zonal and interbasin variations characterize both intervals and involve the pattern and depth of anomalous ocean heat content storage and spatial contrasts in the expansion coefficient tied mainly to base state temperature, with greater rates of rise in warm regions per unit warming. Finally, the relative roles of surface flux and ocean convergence anomalies are examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Stochastic Reduced-Order Model for Statistical Microstructure Descriptors Evolution

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models have been a crucial building block for modern materials development, relieving heavy reliance on experiments and significantly accelerating the materials design process. However, ICME models are also computationally expensive, particularly with respect to time integration for dynamics, which hinders the ability to study statistical ensembles and thermodynamic properties of large systems for long time scales. To alleviate the computational bottleneck, we propose to model the evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors as a continuous-time stochastic process using a non-linear Langevin equation, where the probability density function (PDF) of the statistical microstructure descriptors, which are also the quantities of interests (QoIs), is modeled by the Fokker–Planck equation. In this work, we discuss how to calibrate the drift and diffusion terms of the Fokker–Planck equation from the theoretical and computational perspectives. The calibrated Fokker–Planck equation can be used as a stochastic reduced-order model to simulate the microstructure evolution of statistical microstructure descriptors PDF. Considering statistical microstructure descriptors in the microstructure evolution as QoIs, we demonstrate our proposed methodology in three integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models: kinetic Monte Carlo, phase field, and molecular dynamics simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamical tuning of the chemical potential to achieve a target particle number in grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations

We present a method to facilitate Monte Carlo simulations in the grand canonical ensemble given a target mean particle number. The method imposes a fictitious dynamics on the chemical potential, to be run concurrently with the Monte Carlo sampling of the physical system. Corrections to the chemical potential are made according to time-averaged estimates of the mean and variance of the particle number, with the latter being proportional to thermodynamic compressibility. Here, we perform a variety of tests, and in all cases find rapid convergence of the chemical potential—inexactness of the tuning algorithm contributes only a minor part of the total measurement error for realistic simulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗