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HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2024 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for ground state atomistic materials modeling

We provide the ensemble of fifteen pre-trained graph foundation models (GFMs) for atomistic materials modeling applications. Each one of the fifteen GFMs has been trained on five open-source datasets that (once aggregated) amount to over 154 million atomistic structures, which cover over two-thirds of the natural elements of the periodic table and that comprises a broad set of organic and inorganic compounds. This vast set of atomistic structures comprises ground state configurations that are dynamically stable (i.e., equilibrated structures with atomic forces approximately close to zero values) as well as dynamically unstable structures (i.e., non-equilibrium structures with non-negligible non-zero values of atomic forces). The ensemble of datasets aggregated does NOT include excited states. The datasets have been curated to remove atomistic structures with spectral norm of the force tensor above 100 eV/angstrom. Moreover, a linear term of the energy was computed for each dataset using a linear regression model that uses the chemical concentration of each natural element as regressor. The linear term predicted by the linear regression model has been subtracted from each original energy value to perform a re-alignment of the energy values across different electronic structures approximation theories performed to generate the diverse multi-source, multi-fidelity datasets. The folder "ADIOS_files" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "ADIOS_files" directory contains 6 sub-directories named as follows: - ANI1x-v3.bp - MPTrj-v3.bp - OC2020-20M-v3.bp - OC2020-v3.bp - OC2022-v3.bp - qm7x-v3.bp Each sub-directory contains the pre-processed datasets converted in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used to the development, training, and performance testing of the ensemble go predictive graph foundation models. Each GFM was developed using HydraGNN (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN) as underlying graph neural network (GNN) architecture. The multi-task learning (MTL) capability of HydraGNN was used to simultaneously train the GFMs on labeled values for direct predictions of energy (a total system property of an atomistic structure that measures the chemical stability) and atomic forces (an atomic level property of an atomistic structure that measures the dynamical stability). The hyper parameters of the GFM have been tuned using scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms implemented in the software DeepHyper (https://github.com/deephyper/deephyper). The pre-training of each HPO trial was performed using distributed data parallelism (DDP) to scale the training across 128 compute nodes of the exascale OLCF supercomputer Frontier. Each HPO trial was trained only for 10 epochs and an early stopping was performed to avoid wasting significant computational resources on GNN architectures that were clearly underperforming. For each HPO trial, the 'omnistat' tool developed by (AMD Research - Advanced Micro Device) was used to measure the total energy consumption in kWh. The ensemble of GFMs was obtained by selecting the fifteen best performing HPO trials. Four models have been selected for their clear advantage in accuracy, and these are the GFMs with IDs 229, 156, 147, 260. Additional eleven models have been selected based on judicious balance between accuracy and energy consumption needed for training, and these are the GFMs with IDs 165, 78, 137, 1, 175, 171, 181, 67, 179, 167, 351. Each selected GFM of the ensemble was continued to cumulate a total of at most 30 epochs. In some cases, the total number of epochs actually performed was les than 30 due to two combined factors: (1) the size of the GFM (i.e., the number of model parameters to train) and (2) the total wall-clock time for which the computational resources could be allocated on OLCF-Frontier. The "Ensemble_of_models" directory contains 15 sub-directories named as follows: - gfm_0.229 - gfm_0.156 - gfm_0.147 - gfm_0.260 - gfm_0.165 - gfm_0.78 - gfm_0.137 - gfm_0.1 - gfm_0.175 - gfm_0.171 - gfm_0.181 - gfm_0.67 - gfm_0.179 - gfm_0.167 - gfm_0.351 Each one of these sub-directories refers to one of the fifteen HPO trials that have been selected to continue the pre-training with at most 30 epochs. With each sub-directory associated with a specific HPO trial, the following files can be found: - config.json: file for argument parsing to develop and train an HydraGNN architecture - gfm_0.ID_epoch_N.pk: file with model parameters for HPO ID trial after N epochs of training The ensemble of fifteen GFM architectures was used for (1) ensemble averaging to stabilize the predictions of energy and atomic forces after pre-training for post-processing analysis and (2) ensemble uncertainty quantification (UQ). The code used to develop, pre-train, and load the pre-trained models for post-processing analysis is available on the ORNL-GitHub at the following link: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/tree/Predictive_GFM_2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of Arctic Warming in Mid-Pliocene Climate Simulations

Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

Palaeoclimate simulations↗

Project Link!: Dynamics and Control of In-Flight Wing Tip Docking

Project Link! is a NASA-led effort to study the feasibility of multi-aircraft aerial docking systems. In these systems, a group of vehicles physically link to each other during flight to form a larger ensemble vehicle with increased aerodynamic performance and mission utility. This paper presents a dynamic model and control architecture for a system of fixed-wing vehicles with this capability. The dynamic model consists of the 6 degree-of-freedom fixed-wing aircraft equations of motion, a spring-damper-magnet system to represent the linkage force between constituent vehicles, and the NASA-Burnham-Hallock wingtip vortex model to represent the close-proximity aerodynamic interactions between constituents before the linking occurs. The control architecture consists of a guidance algorithm to autonomously drive the constituents towards their linking partners and an inner-loop angular rate controller. A simulation was constructed from the model, and the flight dynamic modes of the linked system were compared to the individual vehicles. Simulation results for both before and after linking are presented.

Cooper, John R.↗

Quantifying Quantum Chaos through Microcanonical Distributions of Entanglement

A characteristic feature of “quantum chaotic” systems is that their eigenspectra and eigenstates display universal statistical properties described by random matrix theory (RMT). However, eigenstates of local systems also encode structure beyond RMT. To capture this feature, we introduce a framework that allows us to compare the properties of eigenstates in local systems with those of pure random states. In particular, our framework defines a notion of distance between quantum state ensembles that utilizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence to compare the microcanonical distribution of entanglement entropy (EE) of eigenstates with a reference RMT distribution generated by pure random states (with appropriate constraints). This notion gives rise to a quantitative metric for quantum chaos that not only accounts for averages of the distributions but also higher moments. The differences in moments are compared on a highly resolved scale set by the standard deviation of the RMT distribution, which is exponentially small in system size. As a result, the metric can distinguish between chaotic and integrable behaviors and, in addition, quantify and compare the of chaos (in terms of proximity to RMT behavior) between two systems that are assumed to be chaotic. We implement our framework in local, minimally structured, Floquet random circuits, as well as a canonical family of many-body Hamiltonians, the mixed-field Ising model (MFIM). Importantly, for Hamiltonian systems, we find that the reference random distribution must be appropriately constrained to incorporate the effect of energy conservation in order to describe the ensemble properties of midspectrum eigenstates. The metric captures deviations from RMT across all models and parameters, including those that have been previously identified as strongly chaotic, and for which other diagnostics of chaos such as level spacing statistics look strongly thermal. In Floquet circuits, the dominant source of deviations is the second moment of the distribution, and this persists for all system sizes. For the MFIM, we find significant variation of the KL divergence in parameter space. Notably, we find a small region where deviations from RMT are minimized, suggesting that “maximally chaotic” Hamiltonians may exist in fine-tuned pockets of parameter space. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

One of the most promising methods to test the representation of cloud processes used in climate models is to use observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes, and they can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems (size about 2-200 km). The CRMs also allow explicit interaction between out-going longwave (cooling) and in-coming solar (heating) radiation with clouds. Observations can provide the initial conditions and validation for CRM results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model, a CRM, has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades. The GCE model has been used to understand the following: 1) water and energy cycles and their roles in the tropical climate system; 2) the vertical redistribution of ozone and trace constituents by individual clouds and well organized convective systems over various spatial scales; 3) the relationship between the vertical distribution of latent heating (phase change of water) and the large-scale (pre-storm) environment; 4) the validity of assumptions used in the representation of cloud processes in climate and global circulation models; and 5) the representation of cloud microphysical processes and their interaction with radiative forcing over tropical and midlatitude regions. Four-dimensional cloud and latent heating fields simulated from the GCE model have been provided to the TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) to develop and improve algorithms for retrieving rainfall and latent heating rates for TRMM and the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS). More than 90 referred papers using the GCE model have been published in the last two decades. Also, more than 10 national and international universities are currently using the GCE model for research and teaching. In this talk, five specific major GCE improvements: (1) ice microphysics, (2) longwave and shortwave radiative transfer processes, (3) land surface processes, (4) ocean surface fluxes and (5) ocean mixed layer processes are presented. The performance of these new GCE improvements will be examined. Observations are used for model validation.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems to Study the Precipitation Processes

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, and aerosols will be presented. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 sq km in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale models can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving models through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model). (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, W8F). (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling systems to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, and aerosols will be presented. Also how to use the multi-satellite simulator to improve precipitation processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei--Kuo↗

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the recent developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the precipitating systems and hurricanes/typhoons will be presented. The high-resolution spatial and temporal visualization will be utilized to show the evolution of precipitation processes. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator tqimproy~ precipitation processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Microphysics in the Multi-Scale Modeling Systems with Unified Physics

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the microphysics developments of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the heavy precipitation processes will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Microphysics in Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the microphysics development and its performance for the multi-scale modeling system will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems

While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments.

Yang, Song↗

Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Land Carbon Uptake in Northern Mid- and High Latitudes

Here we present a first look at the Gross Primary Production (GPP) forecast skill levels achievable with a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast system. Using NASA’s retrospective S2S ensemble forecast in conjunction with a terrestrial biosphere model, and using an independent, remote sensing-based dataset for validation, we demonstrate an ability to accurately forecast spring-summer carbon uptake at multi-month leads. Averaged across mid-and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere land, the GPP forecast initialized on January 1 produces statistically significant skill through summer. The skill achieved, however, is spatially variable, with some regions appearing to extract skill from accurate forecasts of snowpack removal and others extracting skill from the initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Our results reveal some heretofore unexplored facets of climate predictability and provide a look at what might be possible with future S2S forecast systems that are fully integrated with biogeochemical cycles.

Eunjee Lee↗

Investigating seasonal ENSO forecast amplitude calibration for GEOS-S2S-2

The GEOS-S2S-2 is a global coupled model and assimilation system, encompassing many aspects of the Earth climate system. This project looked at seasonal (nine-month) ensemble forecasts, over the period from 1982 through the present. We explored and validated a forecast amplitude correction technique used by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), of which GEOS is a member, for Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions. The method relies on deriving a set of correction factors based on the standard deviations of hindcast and observed SST anomalies. This algorithm was implemented at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and applied to the GEOS-S2S-2 Niño 3.4 hindcasts. In general, the correction reduced the forecast amplitude. This improved the quality of the forecasts when measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean forecast. RMSE decreased for most initialization months and forecast leads. The correction had a larger impact on seasons with strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than neutral seasons. The effects of the correction on the ensemble characteristics were also examined, and a variation of the algorithm was proposed that preserves the ensemble spread. The outcome of this project is a tool that can be used to calibrate GEOS-S2S-2 ENSO forecasts and potentially improve the precision of multi-model El Niño outlooks.

ENSO↗

Overestimated natural biological nitrogen fixation translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect in Earth system models

CO 2 fertilization of the terrestrial biosphere is limited by nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the dominant natural nitrogen source to the terrestrial biosphere and can alleviate nitrogen limitation but is poorly constrained in Earth system models (ESMs). Here, in this study, we compare terrestrial BNF from an ensemble of ESMs of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to a new global synthesis of observations across natural and agricultural biomes. We find that compared to observations, ESMs underestimate agricultural BNF but overestimate natural BNF in the present day by over 50%. Natural BNF is overestimated in the most productive ecosystems that contribute most to the terrestrial carbon sink (forests and grasslands). ESMs with different BNF representations yield a range of BNF responses to CO 2 enrichment. Some ESMs with phenomenological representations of BNF predict a natural BNF increase in response to a doubling of CO 2 that aligns with a meta-analysis of CO 2 enrichment experiments (31% increase) but fail to account for the substantial carbon cost of BNF. In contrast, ESMs with mechanistic representations of BNF account for its carbon cost as well as its regulation by nitrogen limitation but overestimate the BNF response to a doubling of CO 2 (135% increase). Overall, all current BNF representations in ESMs fall short of fully capturing its response to rising atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, we find a positive correlation between modeled present-day natural BNF and the CO 2 fertilization effect across ESMs, suggesting that overestimated natural BNF translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect of approximately 11% in ESMs.

Biological nitrogen fixation↗

Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion

Chemistry-Climate Modeling↗

Observational Constraints Reduce Model Spread but Not Uncertainty in Global Wetland Methane Emission Estimates

The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH 4 source, estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH 4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH 4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH 4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH 4 year −1 ) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH 4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.

Kuang-Yu Chang↗

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Weather impact↗

Large-Scale Groundwater Monitoring in Brazil Assisted With Satellite-Based Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Here, we develop and test an artificial intelligence (AI)-based approach to monitor major Brazilian aquifers. The approach combines Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and ground-based hydrogeological measurements from Brazil’s Integrated Groundwater Monitoring Network at hundreds of wells distributed in twelve aquifers across the country. We tested model ensembles based on three AI approaches: Extreme Gradient Boost, Light Gradient Boosting Model and CatBoost, followed by a Linear Regression (LR) step. The approach is further boosted with wavelet and seasonal decomposition processes applied to GRACE data. To determine the AI-based model’s sensitivity to data availability, we propose four experiments combining hydrogeological measurements from different aquifers. Groundwater storage estimates from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are used as benchmark. A sensitivity analysis shows that the LR-based model ensemble is the best suited and to reproduce groundwater storage change in all studied Brazilian aquifers. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms GLDAS in all experiments, with an RMSE value of 2.68cm for the experiment that covers all monitored wells in Brazil. GLDAS resulted in RMSE=6.76cm. Using our AI model outputs, we quantified the groundwater storage change of two major aquifers, Urucuia and Bauru-Caiuá, over the past two decades: -31km 3 and -6km 3 , respectively. Water loss is driven by a prolonged drought across most of the country and intensification of groundwater pumping for irrigation. This study demonstrates that combining satellite data and AI can be a cost-effective alternative to monitor poorly equipped aquifers at the continental scale, with possible global replicability.

GRACE↗