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At least 181 records · Page 10

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗

Role of forest regrowth in global carbon sink dynamics

Although the existence of a large carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems is well-established, the drivers of this sink remain uncertain. It has been suggested that perturbations to forest demography caused by past land-use change, management, and natural disturbances may be causing a large component of current carbon uptake. Here we use a global compilation of forest age observations, combined with a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit modeling of forest regrowth, to partition the global forest carbon sink between old-growth and regrowth stands over the period 1981–2010. For 2001–2010 we find a carbon sink of 0.85 (0.66–0.96) Pg/year located in intact old-growth forest, primarily in the moist tropics and boreal Siberia, and 1.30 (1.03–1.96) Pg/year located in stands regrowing after past disturbance. Approaching half of the sink in regrowth stands would have occurred from demographic changes alone, in the absence of other environmental changes. These age-constrained results show consistency with those simulated using an ensemble of demographically-enabled terrestrial biosphere models following an independent reconstruction of historical land use and management. We estimate that forests will accumulate an additional 69 (44–131) Pg C in live biomass from changes in demography alone if natural disturbances, wood harvest, and reforestation continue at rates comparable to those during 1981–2010. Our results confirm that it is not possible to understand the current global terrestrial carbon sink without accounting for the sizeable sink due to forest demography. They also imply that a large portion of the current terrestrial carbon sink is strictly transient in nature.

forest↗

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

land use change↗

Environmental Regulations as Drivers of Materials Obsolescence

This slide presentation reviews the operations of the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC-PC) and the impact of environmental regulations in making some materials obsolete. The center is NASA's resource for identifying and managing risks associated with changing environmental regulations. To this end the center acts as an regulatory early warning system, to review track and analyze emerging regulations, collaborate with the technical community on regulatory risk analysis and interpretation and to represent NASA's interests to the regulatory agencies. Regulations frequently result in making some materials unavailable forcing a change to another material. Processes may also be changed due to environmental regulations. For example some items that were sprayed with a chemical may now have to be painted or dipped with the chemical. Sometimes a regulation changes the use of a certain product, which does not affect the usage on Earth, but has significant implications in space. An example of this is the use of lead-free solders of basically tin, which don't appear to have any problem on Earth, but in space applications tin whiskers have resulted in several confirmed satellite failures.

Scroggins, Sharon↗

The Emergence and Promise of Functional Chemogeography of Organic Matter

Organisms in ecosystems continuously release a myriad of organic matter molecules that undergo microbial and abiotic transformation, processes that critically influence carbon storage and climate feedbacks. Yet, a systematic understanding of what determines the transformation and persistence of organic matter across spatiotemporal scales remains elusive. We propose an emerging framework, termed “functional chemogeography,” to understand transformation and persistence of organic matter based on the chemical traits of molecules. This framework extends beyond a sole focus on intrinsic traits, which remain relatively constant across spatiotemporal scales, to emphasize extrinsic traits such as biochemical transformations and environmental responses, which vary spatiotemporally and are shaped by both intrinsic traits and the environment. When upscaled to the assemblage level using functional diversity indices, these extrinsic traits reveal a significant, and in some cases superior, capacity than intrinsic traits to explain biogeochemical processes, as demonstrated through a case study of dissolved organic matter in China's lakes. In conclusion, by integrating trait-based perspectives into predictive models, this framework helps bridge chemical complexity with ecosystem biogeochemistry, thereby advancing our ability to predict the fate of global organic carbon under environmental change.

chemical traits↗

Coral and Seawater Metagenomes Reveal Key Microbial Functions to Coral Health and Ecosystem Functioning Shaped at Reef Scale

The coral holobiont is comprised of a highly diverse microbial community that provides key services to corals such as protection against pathogens and nutrient cycling. The coral surface mucus layer (SML) microbiome is very sensitive to external changes, as it constitutes the direct interface between the coral host and the environment. Here, we investigate whether the bacterial taxonomic and functional profiles in the coral SML are shaped by the local reef zone and explore their role in coral health and ecosystem functioning. The analysis was conducted using metagenomes and metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) associated with the coral Pseudodiploria strigosa and the water column from two naturally distinct reef environments in Bermuda: inner patch reefs exposed to a fluctuating thermal regime and the more stable outer reefs. The microbial community structure in the coral SML varied according to the local environment, both at taxonomic and functional levels. The coral SML microbiome from inner reefs provides more gene functions that are involved in nutrient cycling (e.g., photosynthesis, phosphorus metabolism, sulfur assimilation) and those that are related to higher levels of microbial activity, competition, and stress response. In contrast, the coral SML microbiome from outer reefs contained genes indicative of a carbohydrate-rich mucus composition found in corals exposed to less stressful temperatures and showed high proportions of microbial gene functions that play a potential role in coral disease, such as degradation of lignin-derived compounds and sulfur oxidation. The fluctuating environment in the inner patch reefs of Bermuda could be driving a more beneficial coral SML microbiome, potentially increasing holobiont resilience to environmental changes and disease.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cross-Disciplinarity in the Advance of Antarctic Ecosystem Research

The biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate variability of the Antarctic continent, and the Southern Ocean are major components of the whole Earth system. Antarctic ecosystems are driven more strongly by the physical environment than many other marine and terrestrial ecosystems. As a consequence, to understand ecological functioning, cross-disciplinary studies are especially important in Antarctic research. The conceptual study presented here is based on a workshop initiated by the Research Programme Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaption of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, which focused on challenges in identifying and applying cross-disciplinary approaches in the Antarctic. Novel ideas, and first steps in their implementation, were clustered into eight themes, ranging from scale problems, risk maps, organism and ecosystem responses to multiple environmental changes, to evolutionary processes. Scaling models and data across different spatial and temporal scales were identified as an overarching challenge. Approaches to bridge gaps in the research programmes included multi-disciplinary monitoring, linking biomolecular findings and simulated physical environments, as well as integrative ecological modelling. New strategies in academic education are proposed. The results of advanced cross-disciplinary approaches can contribute significantly to our knowledge of ecosystem functioning, the consequences of climate change, and to global assessments that ultimately benefit humankind.

Scaling↗

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA's Agency-wide.resource for identifying and managing risks associated with changing environmental regulations Goals of the RRAC PC: 1) Proactively. detect, analyze and communicate environmental regulatory risks to NASA Programs and facilities; 2) Communicate with regulators and participate in the mitigation of such risks; and 3) Provide centralized support on emerging regulations to NASA HQ Environmental Management Division. When significant regulatory changes are identified, timely communication is essential. Communication of changing requirements to the regulatory stakeholders - NASA Programs and Facilities. Communication of potential issues to management and, when appropriate, back to the regulating agency.

Scroggins, Sharon↗

Determination of fluorine distribution in shark teeth by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

Quantifying the chemical composition of fast-growing hard tissues in the environment can shed valuable information in terms of understanding ecosystems both prehistoric and current. Changes in chemical composition can be correlated with environmental conditions and can provide information about the organism's life. Sharks can lose 0.1 to 1.1 teeth/day, depending on species, which offers a unique opportunity to record environmental changes over a short duration of time. Shark teeth contain a biomineral phase that is made up of fluorapatite [Ca 5 (PO 4 ) 3 F], and the F distribution within the tooth can be correlated to tooth hardness. Typically, this is determined by bulk acid digestion, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), or wavelength-dispersive spectroscopy. Here we present laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) as an alternative and faster approach for determining F distribution within shark teeth. Using a two-volume laser ablation chamber (TwoVol3) with innovative embedded collection optics for LIBS, shark teeth were investigated from sand tiger (Carcharias Taurus), tiger (Galeocerdo Cuvier), and hammerhead sharks (Sphyrnidae). Fluorine distribution was mapped using the CaF 603 nm band (CaF, Β 2 Σ + → X 2 Σ + ) and quantified using apatite reference materials. In addition, F measurements were cross referenced with EDS analyses to validate the findings. Distributions of F (603 nm), Na (589 nm), and H (656 nm) within the tooth correlate well with the expected biomineral composition and expected tooth hardness. This rapid methodology could transform the current means of determining F distribution, particularly when large sample specimens (350 mm 2 , presented here) and large quantities of specimens are of interest.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

LDRD23-0730: Invoking Multilayer Networks to Develop a Paradigm for Security Science—Summary Report

Current approaches to securing high consequence facilities (HCF) and critical assets are linear and static and therefore struggle to adapt to emerging threats (e.g., unmanned aerial systems) and changing environmental conditions (e.g., decreasing operational control). The pace of change in technological, organizational, societal, and political dynamics necessitates a move toward codifying underlying scientific principles to better characterize the rich interactions observed between HCF security technology, infrastructure, digital assets, and human or organizational components. The promising results of Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 20-0373—“Developing a Resilient, Adaptive, and Systematic Paradigm for Security Analysis”—suggest that when compared to traditional security analysis, invoking multilayer network (MLN) modeling for HCF security system components captures unexpected failure cases and unanticipated interactions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thin film devices used as oxygen partial pressure sensors

Electrical conductivity of zinc oxide films to be used in an oxygen partial pressure sensor is measured as a function of temperature, oxygen partial pressure, and other atmospheric constituents. Time response following partial pressure changes is studied as a function of temperature and environmental changes.

Canady, K. S.↗

Curriculum Development in Remote Sensing at California State University, Monterery, Seaside, California 93955

The NASA-Ames Research Center and the California State University, Monterey Bay, California (CSUMB), have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to develop and provide cooperative programs between the Ecosystem Science and Technology Branch of NASA (ECOSAT) and the University (CSUMB). The agreement is to carry out educational, research, and technology goals in ecological and environmental sciences and related disciplines, with particular emphasis on changing environmental and climatic conditions occurring worldwide due to the anthropogenic causes affecting the balance within ecological systems and the health and well-being of humans. The preparation of the Curriculum for Remote Sensing at CSUMB was undertaken at the request of the Center as a result of the above agreement.

Sinha, Ravi↗

Biomorphic Multi-Agent Architecture for Persistent Computing

A multi-agent software/hardware architecture, inspired by the multicellular nature of living organisms, has been proposed as the basis of design of a robust, reliable, persistent computing system. Just as a multicellular organism can adapt to changing environmental conditions and can survive despite the failure of individual cells, a multi-agent computing system, as envisioned, could adapt to changing hardware, software, and environmental conditions. In particular, the computing system could continue to function (perhaps at a reduced but still reasonable level of performance) if one or more component( s) of the system were to fail. One of the defining characteristics of a multicellular organism is unity of purpose. In biology, the purpose is survival of the organism. The purpose of the proposed multi-agent architecture is to provide a persistent computing environment in harsh conditions in which repair is difficult or impossible. A multi-agent, organism-like computing system would be a single entity built from agents or cells. Each agent or cell would be a discrete hardware processing unit that would include a data processor with local memory, an internal clock, and a suite of communication equipment capable of both local line-of-sight communications and global broadcast communications. Some cells, denoted specialist cells, could contain such additional hardware as sensors and emitters. Each cell would be independent in the sense that there would be no global clock, no global (shared) memory, no pre-assigned cell identifiers, no pre-defined network topology, and no centralized brain or control structure. Like each cell in a living organism, each agent or cell of the computing system would contain a full description of the system encoded as genes, but in this case, the genes would be components of a software genome.

Lodding, Kenneth N.↗

The South/Southeast Asia Research Initiative (SARI) Update and Meeting Objectives

Land Use/Cover Change (LU/CC) is one of the most important types of environmental change in South and Southeast Asian countries. Several studies suggest that LU/CC in these countries is in large part driven by population growth and economic development. In the region, changes that are most common include urban expansion, agricultural land loss, land abandonment, deforestation, logging, reforestation, etc. To address the research needs and priorities in the region, a regional initiative entitled South Southeast Asia Regional Initiative (SARI) has been developed involving US and regional scientists. The initiative is funded by NASA Land Cover, Land Use Change program. The goal of SARI is to integrate state-of-the-art remote sensing, natural sciences, engineering and social sciences to enrich LU/CC science in South Southeast Asian countries. In the presentation, LU/CC change research in SARI countries will be highlighted including the drivers of change. For example, in South Asia, forest cover has been increasing in countries like India, Nepal and Bhutan due to sustainable afforestation measures; whereas, large-scale deforestation in Southeast Asian countries is still continuing, due to oil palm plantation expansion driven by the international market demand in Malaysia and Indonesia. With respect to urbanization, South and Southeast Asian countries contain 23 megacities, each with more than 10 million people. Rapid urbanization is driving agricultural land loss and agricultural intensification has been increasing due to less availability of land for growing food crops such as in India, Vietnam, and Thailand. The drivers of LUCC vary widely in the region and include such factors as land tenure, local economic development, government policies, inappropriate land management, land speculation, improved road networks, etc. In addition, variability in the weather, climate, and socioeconomic factors also drive LU/CC resulting in disruptions of biogeochemical cycles, radiation and the surface energy balance of the atmosphere. The presentation will also highlight SARI collaborative activities with space agencies, universities and non-government organizations including data sharing mechanisms in the region.

Research↗

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗

Expedited desalination permitting enables adaptive planning and water system cost reduction

Seawater desalination is a drought-proof water supply for coastal cities, but widespread development of desalination plants in the U.S. has been limited by both cost and the complexity of permitting processes designed to minimize environmental impact . This work estimates the value of accelerating the permitting timeline without changing environmental or social standards. On average, faster permitting reduces the frequency of desalination plant construction and operation, the overall costs of robust water system operation, the environmental impacts of drought-tolerant water supplies due to shorter duration of plant operation. Expedited permitting allows fundamental changes in how water infrastructure is deployed, facilitating a transition from anticipatory construction and continuous operation of seawater desalination capacity as a redundant drought buffer to just-in-time (i.e. adaptive) deployment of seawater desalination capacity when critical drought thresholds are crossed. We demonstrate the value of expedited desalination permitting in enabling adaptive planning and reducing water system costs using a simple case study in Santa Barbara, CA. We discuss additional forms of adaptive water infrastructure planning as enabled by faster permitting and address their challenges and opportunities. Lastly, we identify synergies between innovation in adaptive planning, innovation in expedited permitting practices, and innovation in water technology.

adaptive planning↗

Integrated network modeling approach defines key metabolic responses of soil microbiomes to perturbations

The soil environment is constantly changing due to shifts in soil moisture, nutrient availability and other conditions. To contend with these changes, soil microorganisms have evolved a variety of ways to adapt to environmental perturbations, including regulation of gene expression. However, it is challenging to untangle the complex phenotypic response of the soil to environmental change, partly due to the absence of predictive modeling frameworks that can mechanistically link molecular-level changes in soil microorganisms to a community’s functional phenotypes (or metaphenome). Towards filling this gap, we performed a combined analysis of metabolic and gene co-expression networks to explore how the soil microbiome responded to changes in soil moisture and nutrient conditions and to determine which genes were expressed under a given condition. Our integrated modeling approach revealed previously unknown, but critically important aspects of the soil microbiomes’ response to environmental perturbations. Incorporation of metabolomic and transcriptomic data into metabolic reaction networks identified condition-specific signature genes that are uniquely associated with dry, wet, and glycine-amended conditions. A subsequent gene co-expression network analysis revealed that drought-associated genes occupied more central positions in a network model of the soil community, compared to the genes associated with wet, and glycine-amended conditions. These results indicate the occurrence of system-wide metabolic coordination when soil microbiomes cope with moisture or nutrient perturbations. Importantly, the approach that we demonstrate here to analyze large-scale multi-omics data from a natural soil environment is applicable to other microbiome systems for which multi-omics data are available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Determination of Ground Subsidence Around Snow Fences in the Arctic Region

In this study, we analyzed the effects of snow cover changes caused by snow fences (SFs) installed in 2017 in the Alaskan tundra to examine ground subsidence. Digital surface model data obtained through LiDAR-based remote sensing in 2019 and 2022, combined with a field survey in 2021, revealed approximately 0.2 m of ground subsidence around the SF. To investigate the relationship between SF-induced snow cover changes and ground subsidence, geophysical methods, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground-penetrating radar (GPR), were applied in 2023 to analyze subsurface characteristics. The increased snow cover due to the SF-enhanced insulation, delaying the penetration of winter cold into the subsurface. This delay caused subsurface temperatures to decrease more slowly, melting the upper permafrost and increasing the thickness of the active layer. ERT and GPR surveys well delineated the boundary between the active layer and permafrost, confirming that the increased snow cover thickened the active layer. This thickening led to the melting of pore ice, causing water runoff and ground compaction, which resulted in subsidence. The runoff also formed channels flowing eastward over the SF. This study highlights how changes in snow cover can influence active layer properties, leading to localized environmental changes and ground subsidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗