Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “environmental changes”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric teleconnection processes linking winter air stagnation and haze extremes in China with regional Arctic sea ice decline

Abstract. Recent studies suggested significant impacts of boreal cryosphere changes on wintertime air stagnation and haze pollution extremes in China. However, the underlying mechanisms of such a teleconnection relationship remains unclear. Here we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate dynamic processes leading to atmospheric circulation and air stagnation responses to Arctic sea ice changes. We conduct four climate sensitivity experiments by perturbing sea ice concentrations (SIC) and corresponding sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and early winter over the whole Arctic and three subregions in the climate model. The results indicate distinct responses in circulation patterns and regional ventilation to the region-specific Arctic changes, with the largest increase of both the probability (by 132 %) and the intensity (by 30 %) of monthly air stagnation extremes being found in the experiment driven by SIC and SST changes over the Pacific sector of the Arctic (the East Siberian and Chukchi seas). The increased air stagnation extremes are mainly driven by an amplified planetary-scale atmospheric teleconnection pattern that resembles the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) pattern. Dynamical diagnostics suggest that convergence of transient eddy forcing in the vicinity of Scandinavia in winter is largely responsible for the amplification of the teleconnection pattern. Transient eddy vorticity fluxes dominate the transient eddy forcing and produce a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly near Scandinavia and wave train propagation across Eurasia to the downstream regions in East Asia. The piecewise potential vorticity inversion analysis reveals that this long-range atmospheric teleconnection of Arctic origin takes place primarily via the middle and upper troposphere. The anomalous ridge over East Asia in the middle and upper troposphere worsens regional ventilation conditions by weakening monsoon northwesterlies and enhancing temperature inversions near the surface, leading to more and stronger air stagnation and pollution extremes over eastern China in winter. Ensemble projections based on state-of-the-art climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) corroborate this teleconnection relationship between high-latitude environmental changes and midlatitude weather extremes, though the tendency and magnitude vary considerably among each participating model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term excess nitrogen fertilizer increases sensitivity of soil microbial community to seasonal change revealed by ecological network and metagenome analyses

Nitrogen (N) fertilizer has often been generously applied to increase crop biomass yield. Although the influences of inorganic N fertilizer on soil microbial communities have been widely studied, the effect of N fertilizer on microbial co-occurrence networks and its metagenome is largely unknown. Further, seasonal changes in microbial community responses to N addition have rarely been reported. In this study, three N fertilizer rates (0, 56, 196 kg N/ha) were applied annually in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) grown for bioenergy production in the upper Midwest, USA. The soil microbiome was affected by both fertilizer and low pH in the 7th year of fertilization treatments. The microbial community structures were relatively stable during the growing season for each N fertilizer rate. However, the excess N fertilizer (196N) increased the seasonal variation of bacterial and fungal communities. Network analysis showed that the microbial interactions at the 196N treatment were more intense, with decreased bacteria-fungal interactions compared to 56N and 0N. Furthermore, this suggests that the microbial community became more sensitive to environmental change under the influence of long-term excess N fertilizer. Metagenomic analysis showed that the long-term excess N fertilizer promoted many metabolic processes, especially carbohydrate and amino acid related metabolism and Archaea mediated ammonia oxidation. However, N fertilizer also reduced many other traits, especially N 2 fixation and signal transduction, the latter of which may contribute to the decreased interactions between bacteria and fungi.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

IA-TmG.1.0

As part of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) Science Focus Area program we are investigating the impact of environmental change on microbial community function in grassland soils. To enable a comprehensive survey of the metabolic potential of complex soil microbiomes, we performed ultra-deep metagenome sequencing, collecting >1 terabase of sequence data from grassland soils representing different precipitation regimes. Frequent precipitation regime soil (rain-fed and tile-drained agriculture) was collected from Iowa State University’s Comparison of Biofuel Systems (COBS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genomic insights into redox-driven microbial processes for carbon decomposition in thawing Arctic soils and permafrost

Climate change is rapidly transforming Arctic landscapes where increasing soil temperatures speed up permafrost thaw. This exposes large carbon stocks to microbial decomposition, possibly worsening climate change by releasing more greenhouse gases. Understanding how microbes break down soil carbon, especially under the anaerobic conditions of thawing permafrost, is important to determine future changes. Here, we studied the microbial community dynamics and soil carbon decomposition potential in permafrost and active layer soils under anaerobic laboratory conditions that simulated an Arctic summer thaw. The microbial and viral compositions in the samples were analyzed based on metagenomes, metagenome-assembled genomes, and metagenomic viral contigs (mVCs). Following the thawing of permafrost, there was a notable shift in microbial community structure, with fermentative Firmicutes and Bacteroidota taking over from Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria over the 60-day incubation period. The increase in iron and sulfate-reducing microbes had a significant role in limiting methane production from thawed permafrost, underscoring the competition within microbial communities. We explored the growth strategies of microbial communities and found that slow growth was the major strategy in both the active layer and permafrost. Our findings challenge the assumption that fast-growing microbes mainly respond to environmental changes like permafrost thaw. Instead, they indicate a common strategy of slow growth among microbial communities, likely due to the thermodynamic constraints of soil substrates and electron acceptors, and the need for microbes to adjust to post-thaw conditions. The mVCs harbored a wide range of auxiliary metabolic genes that may support cell protection from ice formation in virus-infected cells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scale-dependent enhancement of productivity and stability in xenic Nannochloropsis cultures

Although bacterial amendments can enhance algal productivity and stability, the development of algal-bacteria consortia for commercial-scale utilization is limited. Here, for this work, we used an established high-throughput approach to generate algal-bacteria consortia, and tested consortia performance at spatial scales from microplates to 320 L raceway ponds. We used both lab and field-reared strains of Nannochloropsis oceanica to build consortia. In some experiments, we imposed environmental perturbations to test the ability of bacteria to enhance algal culture stability. In repeated assays at the scale of well plates, flasks, and bioreactors, strong effects of bacterial amendments on N. oceanica were observed. These effects were most dramatic when cultures experienced stressors such as temperature perturbations or removal of CO 2 augmentation. Isolates that were advanced for field testing included species in the genera Algoriphagus, Oceanicaulis, and Marinobacter. When consortia were generated in the field, positive effects of bacterial amendments were not observed. The amended bacteria were outcompeted, and bacterial community composition across treatments converged after the first grow out. These results highlight the complexity of using consortia in open systems, where interactions between the existing bacterial community, inoculated bacteria, and changing environmental conditions are layered upon other differences in scale and cultivation regimes. Moreover, functionally redundant bacteria are likely present in the field. Following this work, we hypothesize that tight interactions (e.g., obligate relationships between partners) will scale more predictably to outdoor systems. We suggest relying on true synthetic ecological approaches in which the relationships between bacteria and algae partners are well understood, or synthetic ecological approaches coupled with high throughput approaches to design and test consortia. We also recommend future work to examine the effect of algae-bacteria inoculation ratios on productivity and stability, track dynamics of partners through time, and manage ponds to retain beneficial symbioses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genotype–environment associations across spatial scales reveal the importance of putative adaptive genetic variation in divergence

Abstract Identifying areas of high evolutionary potential is a judicious strategy for developing conservation priorities in the face of environmental change. For wide‐ranging species occupying heterogeneous environments, the evolutionary forces that shape distinct populations can vary spatially. Here, we investigate patterns of genomic variation and genotype–environment associations in the hermit thrush ( Catharus guttatus ), a North American songbird, at broad (across the breeding range) and narrow spatial scales (at a hybrid zone). We begin by building a genoscape or map of genetic variation across the breeding range and find five distinct genetic clusters within the species, with the greatest variation occurring in the western portion of the range. Genotype–environment association analyses indicate higher allelic turnover in the west than in the east, with measures of temperature surfacing as key predictors of putative adaptive genomic variation rangewide. Since broad patterns detected across a species' range represent the aggregate of many locally adapted populations, we investigate whether our broadscale analysis is consistent with a finer scale analysis. We find that top rangewide temperature‐associated loci vary in their clinal patterns (e.g., steep clines vs. fixed allele frequencies) across a hybrid zone in British Columbia, suggesting that the environmental predictors and the associated candidate loci identified in the rangewide analysis are of variable importance in this particular region. However, two candidate loci exhibit strong concordance with the temperature gradient in British Columbia, suggesting a potential role for temperature‐related barriers to gene flow and/or temperature‐driven ecological selection in maintaining putative local adaptation. This study demonstrates how patterns identified at the broad (macrogeographic) scale can be validated by investigating genotype–environment correlations at the local (microgeographic) scale. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of considering the spatial distribution of putative adaptive variation when assessing population‐level sensitivity to climate change and other stressors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Subsurface Biogeochemical Variability in a High Altitude Watershed During Winter Isolation

Shallow subsurface microbial and geochemical processes in watersheds are dynamic and responsive to seasonal and long-term environmental change. At high elevation or latitude, such changes may occur during winter months when normal sampling is impossible, impractical, unsafe, or may actually alter the processes being studied. Yet accurate modeling of biogeochemical parameters in these environments requires sampling that can capture events and persistent cold climate trends. Gaps in current models exist where data have not been collected during extended snow- or ice-covered periods. The goals of our exploratory study were to examine the biogeochemical processes occurring in a well-studied high altitude watershed during winter when the system is largely inaccessible. We tested the hypothesis that during snow cover in the East River (ER) watershed, episodic excursions of microbial community structure and biogeochemical processes and concentrations fluctuated from values extrapolated from pre- and post-snow time periods. Through our research we identified previously unresolved subsurface-surface transport phenomena and a heretofore under-appreciated methane cycle occurring during wintertime months, thus providing valuable insight into watershed processes. Our research showed that autonomous sampling techniques, first used in marine systems, is extremely versatile and can be adapted for use in harsh continental settings to examine temporal changes in freshwater chemistry and microbial community assemblage. Further, we found that by sampling during periods when systems are hard to access, will lend insight and better accountability for global budgets for methane, an important greenhouse gas. By strengthening our knowledge of wintertime biogeochemical relationships in high altitude watersheds our research leads to more complete descriptions of cryptic processes and ultimately will inform and improve the reactive transport models that simulate processes in these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Abstract. The potential for multiyear prediction of impactful Earth system change remains relatively underexplored compared to shorter (subseasonal to seasonal) and longer (decadal) timescales. In this study, we introduce a new initialized prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) that is specifically designed to probe potential and actual prediction skill at lead times ranging from 1 month out to 2 years. The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) consists of a collection of 2-year-long hindcast simulations, with four initializations per year from 1970 to 2019 and an ensemble size of 20. A full suite of output is available for exploring near-term predictability of all Earth system components represented in CESM2. We show that SMYLE skill for El Niño–Southern Oscillation is competitive with other prominent seasonal prediction systems, with correlations exceeding 0.5 beyond a lead time of 12 months. A broad overview of prediction skill reveals varying degrees of potential for useful multiyear predictions of seasonal anomalies in the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. The SMYLE dataset, experimental design, model, initial conditions, and associated analysis tools are all publicly available, providing a foundation for research on multiyear prediction of environmental change by the wider community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multispectral UAV imagery of experimental freshwater wetlands under 5 ppt saltwater intrusion, Louisiana, 2023 and 2024

Multispectral imagery was collected using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to evaluate how freshwater vegetation responds to short-term simulated saltwater intrusion events. The purpose of this data collection was to understand how plant health changes in response to acute salinity exposure, which is increasingly relevant in coastal wetland ecosystems facing sea level rise and storm surge events, such as in coastal Louisiana. Three experimental saltwater intrusions were conducted at a salinity of approximately 5 parts per thousand (ppt) for durations of 6-days, 10-days, and 17-days. UAV flights occurred both before and after each treatment. The resulting imagery was processed using Pix4DMapper software to georeference the images and generate orthomosaics. The multispectral sensor used in this study captures reflectance in five bands: blue, green, red, red-edge, and near-infrared. The uploaded data consist of georeferenced .tif orthomosaics for each spectral band, which are compatible with GIS software for vegetation analysis. This imagery can be utilized in investigations into vegetation stress, remote sensing of freshwater wetland ecosystems, and modeling of plant response to environmental changes.

EARTH SCIENCE > BIOSPHERE > ECOSYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Managing ecosystem damage from extreme events

Large disturbances to ecosystems can severely impact the stability of a region's natural resources, habitats, and outdoor recreation. Because extreme events can be large and relatively infrequent, they test institutional capacity to support recovery and restoration. Here, when hurricanes and other large-scale disturbances like wildfires occur, much of the impacted landscape receives little to no active management. Ecosystems are often allowed to either recover or transition without much direct intervention, and successional dynamics are sometimes altered by novel invasive species, management history, or other environmental changes. Recovery and restoration are especially challenging for landscapes with highly fragmented private ownership, such as the forests of the eastern US. Acting alone, non-industrial private forest landowners have little capacity to effectively respond to unexpected forest loss and to oversee forest recovery, as the scale of actions needed after extreme events may require cooperation across ownerships or jurisdictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Astrovirology: how viruses enhance our understanding of life in the Universe

Abstract Viruses are the most numerically abundant biological entities on Earth. As ubiquitous replicators of molecular information and agents of community change, viruses have potent effects on the life on Earth, and may play a critical role in human spaceflight, for life-detection missions to other planetary bodies and planetary protection. However, major knowledge gaps constrain our understanding of the Earth's virosphere: (1) the role viruses play in biogeochemical cycles, (2) the origin(s) of viruses and (3) the involvement of viruses in the evolution, distribution and persistence of life. As viruses are the only replicators that span all known types of nucleic acids, an expanded experimental and theoretical toolbox built for Earth's viruses will be pivotal for detecting and understanding life on Earth and beyond. Only by filling in these knowledge and technical gaps we will obtain an inclusive assessment of how to distinguish and detect life on other planetary surfaces. Meanwhile, space exploration requires life-support systems for the needs of humans, plants and their microbial inhabitants. Viral effects on microbes and plants are essential for Earth's biosphere and human health, but virus–host interactions in spaceflight are poorly understood. Viral relationships with their hosts respond to environmental changes in complex ways which are difficult to predict by extrapolating from Earth-based proxies. These relationships should be studied in space to fully understand how spaceflight will modulate viral impacts on human health and life-support systems, including microbiomes. In this review, we address key questions that must be examined to incorporate viruses into Earth system models, life-support systems and life detection. Tackling these questions will benefit our efforts to develop planetary protection protocols and further our understanding of viruses in astrobiology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metaproteomics reveals insights into microbial structure, interactions, and dynamic regulation in defined communities as they respond to environmental disturbance

Abstract Background Microbe-microbe interactions between members of the plant rhizosphere are important but remain poorly understood. A more comprehensive understanding of the molecular mechanisms used by microbes to cooperate, compete, and persist has been challenging because of the complexity of natural ecosystems and the limited control over environmental factors. One strategy to address this challenge relies on studying complexity in a progressive manner, by first building a detailed understanding of relatively simple subsets of the community and then achieving high predictive power through combining different building blocks (e.g., hosts, community members) for different environments. Herein, we coupled this reductionist approach with high-resolution mass spectrometry-based metaproteomics to study molecular mechanisms driving community assembly, adaptation, and functionality for a defined community of ten taxonomically diverse bacterial members of Populus deltoides rhizosphere co-cultured either in a complex or defined medium. Results Metaproteomics showed this defined community assembled into distinct microbiomes based on growth media that eventually exhibit composition and functional stability over time. The community grown in two different media showed variation in composition, yet both were dominated by only a few microbial strains. Proteome-wide interrogation provided detailed insights into the functional behavior of each dominant member as they adjust to changing community compositions and environments. The emergence and persistence of select microbes in these communities were driven by specialization in strategies including motility, antibiotic production, altered metabolism, and dormancy. Protein-level interrogation identified post-translational modifications that provided additional insights into regulatory mechanisms influencing microbial adaptation in the changing environments. Conclusions This study provides high-resolution proteome-level insights into our understanding of microbe-microbe interactions and highlights specialized biological processes carried out by specific members of assembled microbiomes to compete and persist in changing environmental conditions. Emergent properties observed in these lower complexity communities can then be re-evaluated as more complex systems are studied and, when a particular property becomes less relevant, higher-order interactions can be identified.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Root traits explain plant species distributions along climatic gradients yet challenge the nature of ecological trade-offs

Ecological theory is built on trade-offs, where trait differences among species evolved as adaptations to different environments. Trade-offs are often assumed to be bidirectional, where opposite ends of a gradient in trait values confer advantages in different environments. However, unidirectional benefits could be widespread if extreme trait values confer advantages at one end of an environmental gradient, whereas a wide range of trait values are equally beneficial at the other end. Here, we show that root traits explain species occurrences along broad gradients of temperature and water availability, but model predictions only resembled trade-offs in two out of 24 models. Forest species with low specific root length and high root tissue density (RTD) were more likely to occur in warm climates but species with high specific root length and low RTD were more likely to occur in cold climates. Unidirectional benefits were more prevalent than trade-offs: for example, species with large-diameter roots and high RTD were more commonly associated with dry climates, but species with the opposite trait values were not associated with wet climates. Directional selection for traits consistently occurred in cold or dry climates, whereas a diversity of root trait values were equally viable in warm or wet climates. Explicit integration of unidirectional benefits into ecological theory is needed to advance our understanding of the consequences of trait variation on species responses to environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Twenty Years of Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities in Measuring and Understanding Soil Respiration

Abstract Soil respiration (Rs), the soil‐to‐atmosphere flux of CO 2 , is a dominant but uncertain part of the carbon cycle, even after decades of study. This review focuses on progress in understanding Rs from laboratory incubations to global estimates. We survey key developments of in situ ecosystem‐scale Rs observations and manipulations, synthesize Rs meta‐analyses and global flux estimates, and discuss the most compelling challenges and opportunities for the future. Increasingly sophisticated lab experiments have yielded insights into the interaction among heterotrophic respiration, substrate supply, and enzymatic kinetics, and extended incubation‐based analyses across space and time. Observational and manipulative field‐based experiments have used improved measurement approaches to deepen our understanding of the integrated effects of environmental change and disturbance on Rs. Freely‐available observational databases have enabled meta‐analyses and studies probing the magnitude of, and constraints on, the global Rs flux. Key challenges for the field include expanding Rs measurements, experiments, and opportunities to under‐represented communities and ecosystems; reconciling independent estimates of global respiration fluxes and trends; testing and leveraging the power of machine learning and process‐based models, both independently and in conjunction with each other; and continuing the field's tradition of using novel experiments to explore diverse mechanisms and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of ion fluxes across thylakoid membranes on photosynthetic electron transport and photoprotection

In photosynthetic thylakoid membranes the proton motive force (pmf) not only drives ATP synthesis, in addition it is central to controlling and regulating energy conversion. As a consequence, dynamic fine-tuning of the two pmf components, electrical (Δψ) and chemical (ΔpH), is an essential element for adjusting photosynthetic light reactions to changing environmental conditions. Good evidence exists that the Δψ/ΔpH partitioning is controlled by thylakoid potassium and chloride ion transporters and channels. However, a detailed mechanistic understanding of how these thylakoid ion transporter/channels control pmf partitioning is lacking. In this work, we combined functional measurements on potassium and chloride ion transporter and channel loss-of-function mutants with extended mathematical simulations of photosynthetic light reactions in thylakoid membranes to obtain detailed kinetic insights into the complex interrelationship between membrane energization and ion fluxes across thylakoid membranes. The data reveal that potassium and chloride fluxes in the thylakoid lumen determined by the K + /H + antiporter KEA3 and the voltage-gated Cl – channel VCCN1/Best1 have distinct kinetic responses that lead to characteristic and light-intensity-dependent Δψ/ΔpH oscillations. These oscillations fine-tune photoprotective mechanisms and electron transport which are particularly important during the first minutes of illumination and under fluctuating light conditions. By employing the predictive power of the model, we unravelled the functional consequences of changes in KEA3 and VCCN1 abundance and regulatory/enzymatic parameters on membrane energization and photoprotection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Environmental controls on the light use efficiency of terrestrial gross primary production

Abstract Gross primary production (GPP) by terrestrial ecosystems is a key quantity in the global carbon cycle. The instantaneous controls of leaf‐level photosynthesis are well established, but there is still no consensus on the mechanisms by which canopy‐level GPP depends on spatial and temporal variation in the environment. The standard model of photosynthesis provides a robust mechanistic representation for C 3 species; however, additional assumptions are required to “scale up” from leaf to canopy. As a consequence, competing models make inconsistent predictions about how GPP will respond to continuing environmental change. This problem is addressed here by means of an empirical analysis of the light use efficiency (LUE) of GPP inferred from eddy covariance carbon dioxide flux measurements, in situ measurements of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and remotely sensed estimates of the fraction of PAR (fAPAR) absorbed by the vegetation canopy. Focusing on LUE allows potential drivers of GPP to be separated from its overriding dependence on light. GPP data from over 100 sites, collated over 20 years and located in a range of biomes and climate zones, were extracted from the FLUXNET2015 database and combined with remotely sensed fAPAR data to estimate daily LUE. Daytime air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, diffuse fraction of solar radiation, and soil moisture were shown to be salient predictors of LUE in a generalized linear mixed‐effects model. The same model design was fitted to site‐based LUE estimates generated by 16 terrestrial ecosystem models. The published models showed wide variation in the shape, the strength, and even the sign of the environmental effects on modeled LUE. These findings highlight important model deficiencies and suggest a need to progress beyond simple “goodness of fit” comparisons of inferred and predicted carbon fluxes toward an approach focused on the functional responses of the underlying dependencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning analysis reveals relationship between pomacentrid calls and environmental cues

Sound production rates of fishes can be used as an indicator for coral reef health, providing an opportunity to utilize long-term acoustic recordings to assess environmental change. As acoustic datasets become more common, computational techniques need to be developed to facilitate analysis of the massive data files produced by long-term monitoring. Machine learning techniques demonstrate an advantage in the identification of fish sounds over manual sampling approaches. Here we evaluated the ability of convolutional neural networks to identify and monitor call patterns for pomacentrids (damselfishes) in a tropical reef region of the western Pacific. A stationary hydrophone was deployed for 39 mo (2014-2018) in the National Park of American Samoa to continuously record the local marine acoustic environment. A neural network was trained—achieving 94% identification accuracy of pomacentrids—to demonstrate the applicability of machine learning in fish acoustics and ecology. The distribution of sound production was found to vary on diel and interannual timescales. Additionally, the distribution of sound production was correlated with wind speed, water temperature, tidal amplitude, and sound pressure level. This research has broad implications for state-of-the-art acoustic analysis and promises to be an efficient, scalable asset for ecological research, environmental monitoring, and conservation planning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world's forests

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm-2 yr-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively), influenced by each model's initial forest state. Models captured mature forest carbon content but showed compensating effects between overestimated growth and underestimated mortality rates. This first multi-model benchmarking identifies growth and mortality rates as critical calibration targets and highlights the need to refine postdisturbance establishment conditions for model development. We outline specific benchmarking variables needed to improve predictions of forest responses to environmental change.

demographic vegetation model benchmarking↗