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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model

Abstract. Urban overheating and its ongoing exacerbation due to global warming and urban development lead to increased exposure to urban heat and increased thermal discomfort and heat stress. To quantify thermal stress, specific indices have been proposed that depend on air temperature, mean radiant temperature (MRT), wind speed, and relative humidity. While temperature and humidity vary on scales of hundreds of meters, MRT and wind speed are strongly affected by individual buildings and trees and vary on the meter scale. Therefore, most numerical thermal comfort studies apply microscale models to limited spatial domains (commonly representing urban neighborhoods with building blocks) with resolutions on the order of 1 m and a few hours of simulation. This prevents the analysis of the impact of city-scale adaptation and/or mitigation strategies on thermal stress and comfort. To solve this problem, we develop a methodology to estimate thermal stress indicators and their subgrid variability in mesoscale models – here applied to the multilayer urban canopy parameterization BEP-BEM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The new scheme (consisting of three main steps) can readily assess intra-neighborhood-scale heat stress distributions across whole cities and for timescales of minutes to years. The first key component of the approach is the estimation of MRT in several locations within streets for different street orientations. Second, mean wind speed and its subgrid variability are downscaled as a function of the local urban morphology based on relations derived from a set of microscale LES and RANS simulations across a wide range of realistic and idealized urban morphologies. Lastly, we compute the distributions of two thermal stress indices for each grid square, combining all the subgrid values of MRT, wind speed, air temperature, and absolute humidity. From these distributions, we quantify the high and low tails of the heat stress distribution in each grid square across the city, representing the thermal diversity experienced in street canyons. In this contribution, we present the core methodology as well as simulation results for Madrid (Spain), which illustrate strong differences between heat stress indices and common heat metrics like air or surface temperature both across the city and over the diurnal cycle.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

Power outages cause significant economic and societal impacts. An increasing likelihood of extreme weather coupled with aging grid infrastructure is leading to a higher prevalence of extended power outages, which can leave customers without power for multiple days or even weeks. Planners at the facility, local, state, and federal levels are interested in resilience solutions to reduce the impacts of extended power outages. Resilience solutions—such as installing backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, and hardening distribution and transmission components—can reduce the consequences of extended power outages, but these solutions come with increased capital costs. Conducting cost-benefit analyses is important for determining which steps to take to mitigate the impact of power outages without investing in ineffective and cost-prohibitive resilience solutions. The expected benefits of resilience investments depend on the frequency of power outages of various durations, particularly extended outages lasting several hours, days, or weeks. A significant barrier to resilience planning is the lack of publicly available data on the frequency and duration of extended power outages. The absence of outage duration information severely limits the ability to conduct quantitative cost-benefit analyses of resilience investments. This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies. We developed a methodology to estimate customer outage durations for extended outage events using publicly available data on customer outages. Shorter-duration power outages are relatively common, with customers experiencing on average more than one power outage each year lasting fewer than 12 hours. An outage event lasting between 1 day and 1 week is expected to occur between once every 16 years and once every 42 years, depending on the region, with an average recurrence rate of once every 32 years across the contiguous United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify if the software is reliable (or unreliable) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify software reliability (or unreliability) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Minimizing Launch Mass for ISRU Processes

The University of Dayton and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory are developing a methodology for estimating the Earth launch mass (ELM) of processes for In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) with a focus on lunar resource recovery. ISRU may be enabling for both an extended presence on the Moon, and for large sample return missions and for a human presence on Mars. To accomplish these exploration goals, the resources recovered by ISRU must offset the ELM for the recovery process. An appropriate figure of merit is the cost of the exploration mission, which is closely related to ELM. For a given production rate and resource concentration, the lowest ELM - and the best ISRU process - is achieved by minimizing capital equipment for both the ISRU process and energy production. ISRU processes incur Carnot limitations and second law losses (irreversibilities) that ultimately determine production rate, material utilization and energy efficiencies. Heat transfer, chemical reaction, and mechanical operations affect the ELM in ways that are best understood by examining the process's detailed energetics. Schemes for chemical and thermal processing that do not incorporate an understanding of second law losses will be incompletely understood. Our team is developing a methodology that will aid design and selection of ISRU processes by identifying the impact of thermodynamic losses on ELM. The methodology includes mechanical, thermal and chemical operations, and, when completed, will provide a procedure and rationale for optimizing their design and minimizing their cost. The technique for optimizing ISRU with respect to ELM draws from work of England and Funk that relates the cost of endothermic processes to their second law efficiencies. Our team joins their approach for recovering resources by chemical processing with analysis of thermal and mechanical operations in space. Commercial firms provide cost inputs for ELM and planetary landing. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

England, C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Modeling the spatiotemporal organization of velocity storage in the vestibuloocular reflex by optokinetic studies

1. A generalized three-dimensional state space model of visual vestibular interaction was developed. Matrix and dynamical system operators associated with inputs from the semicircular canals, otolith velocity estimator, and the visual system have been incorporated into the model, which focus on their relationship to the velocity storage integrator. 2. A relationship was postulated between the eigenvalues and the direction of the eigenvectors of the system matrix and the orientation of the spatial vertical. It was assumed that the system matrix for a tilted position was a composition of two linear transformations of the system matrix for the upright position. One transformation modifies the eigenvalues of the system matrix, whereas another rotates the eigenvectors of the system matrix. The pitch and roll eigenvectors rotate with the head, whereas the yaw axis eigenvector remains approximately spatially invariant. 3. Based on the three-dimensional model, a computational procedure was formulated to identify the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the system matrix with the use of a modification of the marquardt algorithm. With the use of data obtained from a monkey, it was shown that the three-dimensional behavior of velocity storage cannot be predicted solely in terms of its time constants, i.e., the inverse of its eigenvalues. With the use of the same eigenvalues the data could either be fit or not fit, depending on the eigenvector directions. Therefore, it is necessary to specify eigenvector directions when characterizing velocity storage in three dimensions. 4. Parameters found with the use of the Marquardt algorithm were incorporated into the model. Diagonal matrices in a head coordinate frame were introduced for coupling the visual system to the integrator and to the direct optokinetic pathway. Simulations of optokinetic nystagmus (OKN) and optokinetic after-nystagmus (OKAN) were run. The model predicted the behavior of yaw and pitch OKN and OKAN when the animal is upright. It also predicted the cross-coupling in the side down position. The trajectories in velocity space were also accurately simulated. 5. One of the predictions of the model is that when the stimulus direction is along an eigenvector, the trajectory in velocity space is a straight line. Using the "spectral width" of the residuals from a straight line sequence during OKAN, we developed a methodology to estimate how close the OKAN decay was to an eigenvector trajectory. 6. Thus we have developed a model-based approach for studying and interpreting the response characteristics of velocity storage in three dimensions.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS).

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of W + W − production cross-sections in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of W + W − → e ± νμ ∓ ν production cross-sections are presented, providing a test of the predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics and the electroweak theory. The measurements are based on data from pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The number of events due to top-quark pair production, the largest background, is reduced by rejecting events containing jets with b-hadron decays. An improved methodology for estimating the remaining top-quark background enables a precise measurement of W + W − cross-sections with no additional requirements on jets. The fiducial W + W − cross-section is determined in a maximum-likelihood fit with an uncertainty of 3.1%. The measurement is extrapolated to the full phase space, resulting in a total W + W − cross-section of 127 ± 4 pb. Differential cross-sections are measured as a function of twelve observables that comprehensively describe the kinematics of W + W − events. The measurements are compared with state-of-the-art theory calculations and excellent agreement with predictions is observed. A charge asymmetry in the lepton rapidity is observed as a function of the dilepton invariant mass, in agreement with the Standard Model expectation. A CP-odd observable is measured to be consistent with no CP violation. Limits on Standard Model effective field theory Wilson coefficients in the Warsaw basis are obtained from the differential cross-sections.

Accelerator Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physical, socio-psychological, and behavioural determinants of household energy consumption in the UK

Determining which attitudes and behaviours predict household energy consumption can help accelerate the low-carbon energy transition. Conventional approaches in this domain are limited, often relying on survey methods that produce data on individuals’ motivations and self-reported activities without pairing these with actual energy consumption records, which are particularly hard to collect for large, nationally representative samples. This challenge precludes the development of empirical evidence on which attitudes and behaviours influence patterns of energy consumption, thus limiting the extent to which these can inform energy interventions or conservation programs. This study demonstrates a novel methodology for estimating energy consumption in the absence of actual energy records by using a large, publicly available data set of energy consumption in the UK. We develop a predictive model using the Smart Energy Research Laboratory (SERL) data portal (with records from nearly 13,000 UK households) and then use this model to predict energy consumption (both electric and gas) for a sample of 1,000 UK householders for which we separately collect over 200 variables relating to climate change attitudes and practices. Our approach uses a set of over 50 independent variables that are shared between the data sets, allowing us to train a model on the SERL data and use it to analyse the relationship between energy consumption and the opinions, motivations, and daily practices of survey respondents. Results show that electricity consumption is influenced by a broader range of factors compared to gas. Household energy use is best explained by physical dwelling characteristics, socio-demographic variables, and certain behavioural and attitudinal measures. Notably, pro-environmental attitudes, frugality, and conscientiousness correlate with lower energy use, while income and consumerism are linked to higher consumption. We discuss how these findings can inform efforts to decarbonise home energy use in the UK.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment the leaching characteristics and long-term leaching behavior of some radionuclides from synthesized zeolite cement matrix

Highlights: • Synthesis and characterization of zeolite cement synthesized from fly ash • Leaching tests were used to assess the release rate of {sup 85}Sr and {sup 60}Co radionuclides. • Simple mathematical models were used to detect leaching mechanisms. • Long-term leaching behavior of {sup 85}Sr and {sup 60}Co from cementitious matrix was assessed. The development of cementitious materials remains a vital goal to produce valuable products with good mechanical, physical and chemical properties suitable for the safe disposal of concentrated radionuclides resulted from the treatment of contaminated solutions. In this paper, zeolite cement with good properties was laboratory synthesized from industrial by-products fly ash and characterized using various characterization techniques. The leaching characteristics of strontium and cobalt radionuclides from the synthesized zeolite cement were scrutinized conforming with the standard leaching methodology of International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA). A mechanical strength assessment was executed to characterize the extent of immobilization process of the solidified matrices. The cumulative leaching fraction (φ) of the two studied radionuclides was found to be less than 5% in all examined conditions, which implies the applicability of the IAEA-recommended methodology for estimating the diffusion coefficient. The experimental leaching data were regressed nonlinearly to various mathematical kinetic models to assess the controlling leaching mechanism and to determine the leaching parameters. The regression results indicated that strontium ({sup 85}Sr) and cobalt ({sup 60}Co) leaching resulted from two succeeding mechanisms: as first order kinetic reaction, and then diffusion. The calculated values of leachability indices signify that the performance of each of the studied matrices is within an acceptable range. A simplified mathematical model, rooted in the first order reaction and diffusion mechanisms, was simulated to predict the radionuclides leaching rates from zeolite cement matrices. By comparing the synthesized zeolite cement with other cementitious materials, it can be concluded that the synthesized material can be classified as an efficient material suitable to immobilize {sup 85}Sr and {sup 60}Co from radioactive wastes. The acquired findings demonstrated that the studied immobilized waste matrices have acceptable mechanical effectiveness.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identification of hot water end-use process of electric water heaters from energy measurements

This paper presents an algorithm for the identification of parameters for a stochastic hot water end-use process that drives a homogeneous population of thermostatically controlled electric water heaters (EWH). Usually, only metered interval consumption data (kWh) is collected and the hot water end-use process is unobservable to utility and aggregators. However, the availability of EWHs for demand response (DR) is closely coupled with the hot water end-use process. In this context, the hot water end-use process is modeled as a two-state Markov chain (Use / No use), which causes the thermostatic ON-OFF switching process to behave as a Markov renewal process (MRP). A set of first passage-time problems is developed to obtain the moments of the transition probability densities of the MRP. These problems are addressed by establishing a system of coupled partial differential equations characterizing the temperature evolution of the EWH population. A key quantity in the methodology for estimating the parameters is the total time an EWH is ON within a period of interest. It is referred to as the total busy time. Total busy time in this approach is a random variable for which analytical expressions of the moments are developed as a function of the metered window length. The latter expressions become the basis of a hot water demand model identification algorithm which is validated using agent-based simulations of EWHs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatial and temporal prediction of radiation dose rates near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method. We then developed a modified Kalman filter coupled with a Gaussian process model to estimate the dose-rate time series at a given location and time. We applied this method to the Fukushima evacuation zone (as of March 2017), which included 17 monitoring post locations (with monitoring datasets collected between 2014 and 2018) and generated a time series of dose-rate maps. Our results show that this approach allows us to produce accurate spatial and temporal predictions of radiation dose-rate maps using limited spatiotemporal measurements.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraining and Characterizing the Size of Atmospheric Rivers: A Perspective Independent From the Detection Algorithm

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (AR) are large and narrow filaments of poleward horizontal water vapor transport. Because of its direct relationship with horizontal vapor transport, extreme precipitation, and overall AR impacts over land, the AR size is an important characteristic that needs to be better understood. Current AR detection and tracking algorithms have resulted in large uncertainty in estimating AR sizes, with areas varying over several orders of magnitude among different detection methods. We develop and implement five independent size estimation methods to characterize the size of ARs that make landfall over the west coast of North America in the 1980–2017 period and reduce the range of size estimation from ARTMIP. ARs that originate in the Northwest Pacific (WP) (100°−180°E) have larger sizes and are more zonally oriented than those from the Northeast Pacific (EP) (180°−240°E). ARs become smaller through their life cycle, mainly due to reductions in their width. They also become more meridionally oriented toward the end of their life cycle. Overall, the size estimation methods proposed in this study provide a range of AR areas (between 7 × 10 11 and 10 13 m 2 ), that is, several orders of magnitude narrower than current methods estimation. This methodology can provide statistical constraints in size and geometry for the AR detection and tracking algorithms, and an objective insight for future studies about AR size changes under different climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Progress and prospects of thermo-mechanical energy storage – A critical review

The share of electricity generated by intermittent renewable energy sources is increasing (now at 26% of global electricity generation) and the requirements of affordable, reliable and secure energy supply designate grid-scale storage as an imperative component of most energy transition pathways. The most widely deployed bulk energy storage solution is pumped-hydro energy storage (PHES), however, this technology is geographically constrained. Alternatively, flow batteries are location independent and have higher energy densities than PHES, but remain associated with high costs and low lifetimes, which highlights the importance of developing and utilizing additional larger-scale, longer-duration and long-lifetime energy storage alternatives. Here, we review a class of promising bulk energy storage technologies based on thermo-mechanical principles, which includes: compressed-air energy storage (CAES), liquid-air energy storage (LAES) and pumped-thermal electricity storage (PTES). The thermodynamic principles upon which these thermo-mechanical energy storage (TMES) technologies are based are discussed and a synopsis of recent progress in their development is presented, assessing their ability to provide reliable and cost-effective solutions. The current performance and future prospects of TMES systems are examined within a unified framework and a thermoeconomic analysis is conducted to explore their competitiveness relative to each other as well as when compared to PHES and flow battery systems. This includes carefully selected thermodynamic and economic methodologies for estimating the component costs of each configuration in order to provide a detailed and fair comparison at various system sizes. The analysis reveals that the technical and economic characteristics of TMES systems are such that, especially at higher discharge power ratings and longer discharge durations, they can offer promising performance (round-trip efficiencies higher than 60%) along with high lifetimes (> 30 years), low specific costs (often below 100 $/kWh), low ecological footprints and unique sector-coupling features compared to other storage options. TMES systems have significant potential for further progress and the thermoeconomic comparisons in this paper can be used as a benchmark for their future evolution.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Power Transmission Lines Hardening Scenarios Using a Machine Learning Approach

The power transmission infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly hurricanes and tropical storms. A recent example is the damage caused by Hurricane Maria (H-Maria) in the archipelago of Puerto Rico in September 2017, where major failures in the transmission infrastructure led to a total blackout. Numerous studies have been conducted to examine strategies to strengthen the transmission system, including burying the power lines underground or increasing the frequency of tree trimming. However, few studies focus on the direct hardening of the transmission towers to accomplish an increase in resiliency. This machine learning-based study fills this need by analyzing three direct hardening scenarios and determining the effectiveness of these changes in the context of H-Maria. A methodology for estimating transmission tower damage is presented here in this study as well as an analysis of impact of replacing structures with a high failure rate with more resilient ones. We found the steel self-support-pole to be the best replacement option for the towers with high failure rate. Furthermore, the third hardening scenario, where all wooden poles were replaced, exhibited a maximum reduction in damaged towers in a single line of 66% while lowering the mean number of damaged towers per line by 10%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration and Commissioning of the LSST

Understanding the nature of dark energy and dark matter remains one of the fundamental questions in physics today; impacting our understanding of particle physics, cosmology, and possibly theories of gravity. Given the scale and complexity of the next generation of cosmology experiments (e.g., the Rubin Observatory, the Euclid satellite mission, and the Roman space telescope) we are entering an era where statistical noise no longer determines the accuracy to which we can measure cosmological parameters. Our ability to control and correct for systematics will ultimately determine the scientific impact of these experiments. This award addressed the challenge of how we determine what limits the accuracy of our cosmological measures, what techniques are appropriate for measuring and calibrating the properties of galaxies to best constrain cosmological models, how to develop statistical techniques that are insensitive to systematic errors, and how to optimize survey strategies in order to minimize systematics while maximizing the speed at which an experiment can achieve its science objectives. In this final technical report for award DE-SC0011635 we describe a set of open-source frameworks that simulate the characteristics and properties of current and planned cosmology surveys and the application of these frameworks to the development of new methodologies for estimating the properties and distances to galaxies that are robust to noisy and incomplete data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

CPUC Avoided Transmission and Distribution Cost Study to Support the Avoided Cost Calculator: Avoided Transmission Costs Draft Research Plan

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) have been contracted by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Energy Division (ED) to perform a study which explores and selects an improved methodology to estimate avoided electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure costs that can be attributed to the presence of distributed energy resources (DERs). PNNL is performing the study for avoided electricity transmission infrastructure costs and LBNL is performing the study for avoided electricity distribution infrastructure costs. This document summarizes CPUC’s research questions related to avoided transmission infrastructure costs and PNNL’s proposed technical approach to answer these questions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainties and Limitations of Experimental Thrust and Pressure Gain Measurements in a Rotating Detonation Combustor

Experimentally measuring the pressure gain through the method of equivalent available pressure is prone to many experimental uncertainties. This study performs a detailed uncertainty analysis of the thrust and pressure gain measurements utilizing data from a H2/air operated rotating detonation combustor with an axial air inlet and a 50% exit constriction. The measured (negative) pressure gain values agree with the results in literature for similar inlet-to-exit area ratios. Specific considerations are given to the uncertainty in thrust measurement introduced by the base drag correction on the inner-body. The assumed unity Mach number utilized in the equivalent available pressure methodology is evaluated experimentally with two different methods using time-averaged measurements at the exhaust plane. A definitive demonstration of gain will be challenging given the assessed uncertainties, but recommendations are given to increase the precision of the equivalent available pressure methodology to estimate pressure gain.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗