Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “evapotranspiration model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Bark beetle impacts on forest evapotranspiration and its partitioning

Insect outbreaks affect forest structure and function and represent a major category of forest disturbance globally. However, the resulting impacts on evapotranspiration (ET), and especially hydrological partitioning between the abiotic (evaporation) and biotic (transpiration) components of total ET, are not well constrained. As a result, we combined remote sensing, eddy covariance, and hydrological modeling approaches to determine the effects of bark beetle outbreak on ET and its partitioning at multiple scales throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain Ecoregion (SRME), USA. At the eddy covariance measurement scale, 85 % of the forest was affected by beetles, and water year ET as a fraction of precipitation (P) decreased by 30 % relative to a control site, with 31 % greater reductions in growing season transpiration relative to total ET. At the ecoregion scale, satellite remote sensing masked to areas of >80 % tree mortality showed corresponding ET/P reductions of 9–15 % that occurred 6–8 years post-disturbance, and indicated that the majority of the total reduction occurred during the growing season; the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model showed an associated 9–18 % increase in the ecoregion runoff ratio. Long-term (16–18 year) ET and vegetation mortality datasets extend the length of previously published analyses and allowed for clear characterization of the forest recovery period. During that time, transpiration recovery outpaced total ET recovery, which was lagged in part due to persistently reduced winter sublimation, and there was associated evidence of increasing late summer vegetation moisture stress. Overall, comparison of three independent methods and two partitioning approaches demonstrated a net negative impact of bark beetles on ET, and a relatively greater negative impact on transpiration, following bark beetle outbreak in the SRME.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

BESS-STAIR: a framework to estimate daily, 30m, and all-weather crop evapotranspiration using multi-source satellite data for the US Corn Belt

Abstract. With increasing crop water demands and drought threats, mapping andmonitoring of cropland evapotranspiration (ET) at high spatial and temporalresolutions become increasingly critical for water management andsustainability. However, estimating ET from satellites for precise waterresource management is still challenging due to the limitations in bothexisting ET models and satellite input data. Specifically, the process of ETis complex and difficult to model, and existing satellite remote-sensing datacould not fulfill high resolutions in both space and time. To address theabove two issues, this study presents a new high spatiotemporal resolution ETmapping framework, i.e., BESS-STAIR, which integrates a satellite-drivenwater–carbon–energy coupled biophysical model, BESS (Breathing Earth SystemSimulator), with a generic and fully automated fusion algorithm, STAIR(SaTallite dAta IntegRation). In this framework, STAIR provides daily 30'mmultispectral surface reflectance by fusing Landsat and MODIS satellite datato derive a fine-resolution leaf area index and visible/near-infrared albedo,all of which, along with coarse-resolution meteorological and CO 2 data, are used to drive BESS to estimate gap-free 30 m resolution daily ET.We applied BESS-STAIR from 2000 through 2017 in six areas across the US CornBelt and validated BESS-STAIR ET estimations using flux-tower measurementsover 12 sites (85 site years). Results showed that BESS-STAIR daily ETachieved an overall R2=0.75, with root mean square error RMSE=0.93 mm d -1 and relative error RE =27.9 % when benchmarkedwith the flux measurements. In addition, BESS-STAIR ET estimations capturedthe spatial patterns, seasonal cycles, and interannual dynamics well indifferent sub-regions. The high performance of the BESS-STAIR frameworkprimarily resulted from (1) the implementation of coupled constraints onwater, carbon, and energy in BESS, (2) high-quality daily 30 m data from theSTAIR fusion algorithm, and (3) BESS's applicability under all-skyconditions. BESS-STAIR is calibration-free and has great potentials to be areliable tool for water resource management and precision agricultureapplications for the US Corn Belt and even worldwide given the globalcoverage of its input data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Groundwater Response and Uncertainty in Beaver‐Influenced Mountainous Floodplains Using Machine Learning‐Based Model Calibration

Abstract Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model‐data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver‐induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning‐based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down‐valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down‐valley underflow, from 2 during dry pond periods to 20 during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down‐valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver‐induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response. Plain Language Summary Beavers change the flow of water in river corridors by creating ponds, expanding wetlands, and flooding floodplains. This increases surface water area, promotes plant growth, and enhances biodiversity. However, the impact of this flooding on groundwater flow is not well understood, especially in mountainous areas with gravel layers where water moves easily beneath soil. In this study, we used numerical modeling to investigate how beaver ponds influence groundwater in a mountainous floodplain of the Upper Colorado River Basin. We adapted a machine learning method to validate our numerical models using multiple field data sets. Our findings show that beaver ponds significantly increase vertical water flow from the soil to the gravel during wet periods, compared to when the ponds are fully drained. The study also highlights the importance of floodplain structure in controlling both water flow in gravel layers along the river direction and vertical flow from the soil to the gravel with the presence of beavers. To reduce uncertainty in groundwater response, we emphasize the need for more field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration changes. Key Points Floodplain structures and hydraulic conductivities are important for groundwater response with beaver ponds in mountainous floodplains Large down‐valley underflow in permeability‐stratified floodplains reduces beaver‐induced impacts on groundwater storage and water quality Machine learning‐based model calibration methods are effective for estimating posterior distributions of groundwater model parameters

Wang, Lijing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Meteorological Conditions in Urban Sites in Knoxville, USA. 2025

This 2025 dataset, which contains five csv files, reports hourly air temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, incident short wave, reflected short wave, incident long wave, emitted long wave, net radiation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) data measured in urban parks in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. The sites include Cumberland Estates Park (CEP), Socially Equal Energy Efficient Development (SEEED), West Hills Park (WHP), West View Park (WVP), and Victor Ashe Park (VAP). Air temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation data were obtained from a METER ATMOS 41 All-in-One Weather Station (Pullman, Washington, USA). Incident and emitted radiation (shortwave and longwave) measurements were made using an Apogee (Logan, Utah, USA) net radiometer (Model SN-500-SS). The SQ-521 Full-Spectrum Quantum sensor (Apogee Instruments, Inc) recorded the PAR. The measurement data for all the sites started on January 1, 2025. and all measurement ended on December 31, 2025. This work is a part of a larger study which investigates the impact of soil moisture and plant evapotranspiration on ambient temperature and relative humidity in several city parks in Knoxville, Tennessee.

Salvador, Christian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000283287777↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation and modification of ELM seasonal deciduous phenology against observations in a southern boreal peatland forest

Phenological transitions determine the timing of changes in land surface properties and the seasonality of exchanges of biosphere-atmosphere energy, water, and carbon. Accurate mechanistic modeling of phenological processes is therefore critical to understand and correctly predict terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks with changing atmospheric and climate conditions. However, the phenological components in the land model of the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM of E3SM) were previously unable to accurately capture the observed phenological responses to environmental conditions in a well-studied boreal peatland forest. In this research, we introduced new seasonal-deciduous phenology schemes into version 1.0 of ELM and evaluated their performance against the PhenoCam observations at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment in northern Minnesota from 2015 to 2018. We found that phenology simulated by the revised ELM (i.e., earlier spring onsets and stronger warming responses of spring onsets and autumn senescence) was closer to observations than simulations from the original algorithms for both the deciduous conifer (Larix laricina) and mixed shrub layers. Moreover, the revised ELM generally produced higher carbon and water fluxes (e.g., photosynthesis and evapotranspiration) during the growing season and stronger flux responses to warming than the default ELM. A parameter sensitivity analysis further indicated the significant contribution of phenology parameters to uncertainty in key carbon and water cycle variables, underscoring the importance of precise phenology parameterization. Furthermore, this phenological modeling effort demonstrates the potential to enhance the E3SM representation of land-climate interactions at broader spatiotemporal scales, especially under anticipated elevated CO 2 and warming conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Methods for Causal Discovery in Hydrometeorological Systems

Understanding causal relations is of utmost importance in hydrology and climate research for systems identification, prediction, and understanding systems behavior in a changing climate. Traditionally, researchers in hydrometeorology attempted to study causal questions by conducting controlled experiments using numerical models. This approach, however, in most cases of interest provides uncertain results because the models are approximate representation of the natural system. An alternative approach that has recently drawn significant attention in several fields is to infer causal relations from purely observational data. It possesses several traits to its utility particularly in hydrometeorology due to the rapid accumulation of in situ and remotely sensed data records. The first objective of this study is to present a brief description of four causal discovery methods (Granger causality, Transfer Entropy, graph-based algorithms, and Convergent Cross Mapping) with special emphasis on the assumptions on which they are built. Second, using synthetic data generated from a hydrological model, we assess their performance in retrieving causal information taking into account sensitivity to sample size and presence of noise. Last, we use causal analysis to examine and formulate hypotheses on causal drivers of evapotranspiration in a shrubland region during summer and winter seasons. An interpretation of the hypotheses based on canopy seasonal dynamics and evapotranspiration processes is presented. It is hoped that the results presented here can be useful in guiding researchers studying hydrometeorological systems as to which causal method is most appropriate to the characteristics of the system under study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the drivers of ecosystem fluxes and water potential across the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum in an arid woodland

Dryland ecosystems occupy a vast swath of the terrestrial land surface and exert a sizeable impact on the cycling of carbon and water globally. These biomes are characterized by tightly coupled carbon and water cycles that respond rapidly to transient pulses in water availability. However, there exist many mechanistic uncertainties regarding the environmental drivers of, and linkages between, plant and ecosystem processes. Thus, drylands are often poorly represented in many vegetation and land surface models. An enhanced understanding of dryland ecosystem function is limited by the lack of long-term, co-located, and frequent measurements of plant and ecosystem processes. At a piñon-juniper woodland in southeastern Utah, USA, we collected a continuous dataset of meteorological conditions, soil water potential from surface to bedrock, tree water potential, and ecosystem carbon and water fluxes from eddy covariance. We found that predawn and midday tree water potential and daily ecosystem fluxes were highly sensitive to fluctuations in soil water availability, particularly in shallower layers, and that daytime variability in atmospheric drivers only loosely controlled these processes. The strong connections between shallow soil water potential, tree water potential, and ecosystem fluxes occurred because of the dominant role of precipitation pulses in driving vegetation activity, as even small pulses of moisture stimulated shallow soil water potential, tree water potential, and evapotranspiration for between 1 and 2 weeks. Carbon fluxes (net ecosystem exchange and gross primary productivity) were sensitive to precipitation pulses for longer, up to 3 weeks. Our results highlight that improved monitoring and sensing of shallow soil moisture can greatly enhance our understanding of dryland ecosystem function. Here, a better mechanistic understanding of the impacts of precipitation pulses is also needed to improve vegetation modeling of dryland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in situ and remote sensing data sets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

Cheng, Yanyan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meteorological Conditions in Urban Sites in Knoxville, USA. 2023

This 2023 dataset, which contains four csv files, reports hourly air temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, incident short wave, reflected short wave, incident long wave, emitted long wave, net radiation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) data measured in urban parks in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. The sites include Cumberland Estates Park (CEP), Socially Equal Energy Efficient Development (SEEED), West Hills (WHP), and Victor Ashe Park (VAP). Air temperature, wind speed and direction, and solar radiation data were obtained from a METER ATMOS 41 All-in-One Weather Station (Pullman, Washington, USA). Incident and emitted radiation (shortwave and longwave) measurements were made using an Apogee (Logan, Utah, USA) net radiometer (Model SN-500-SS). The SQ-521 Full-Spectrum Quantum sensor (Apogee Instruments, Inc) recorded the PAR. The measurement data for CEP, SEEED, and VAP started on July 1, 2023, while WHP started on August 26, 2023. All measurement ended on December 31, 2023. This work is a part of a larger study which investigates the impact of soil moisture and plant evapotranspiration on ambient temperature and relative humidity in several city parks in Knoxville, Tennessee.

Salvador, Christian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000283287777↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advances in 3D Geologic Modeling of Alluvial Basins with a Focus on Facies and Property Modeling

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. There are hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in vertical separation between repository and water table and thus longer transport paths to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. A thick geologic host medium, which serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system, isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest

Abstract Warming generally leads to increased evaporative demand, altering the amount of water needed for growing crops. For the Midwest, some studies have suggested that reaching yield targets by 2050 will not be possible without additional precipitation or large expansion of irrigation. Here, we show that this claim is not supported by the historical summer climate trends, which indicate that the warming of daily average temperatures is largely driven by increases in minimum temperatures, while maximum temperatures have decreased. This has translated into a net decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). With the increasing rainfall, this suggests that crop water deficits have likely become less frequent in the region despite the warming climate. By projecting these trends into 2050 and ancillary use of a crop model, we estimate minor changes in PET that would have minimal effects on corn yields (<6%) under persistence of these trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Empirical relationships between environmental factors and soil organic carbon produce comparable prediction accuracy as the Machine Learning

Accurate representation of environmental controllers of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Earth System Model (ESM) land models could reduce uncertainties in future carbon-climate feedback projections. Using empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks to evaluate land models can help modelers understand prediction biases beyond what can be achieved with the observed SOC stocks alone. In this study, we used 31 observed environmental factors, field SOC observations (n = 6,213) from the continental US, and two Machine Learning approaches [Random Forest (RF) and Generalized Additive Modeling (GAM)] to (1) select important environmental predictors of SOC stocks, (2) derive empirical relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks, and (3) use the derived relationships to predict SOC stocks and compare the prediction accuracy of simpler model developed with the machine learning predictions. Out of the 31 environmental factors we investigated, 12 were identified as important predictors of SOC stocks by the RF approach. In contrast, the GAM approach identified six (of those 12) environmental factors as important controllers of SOC stocks: potential evapotranspiration, normalized difference vegetation index, soil drainage condition, precipitation, elevation, and net primary productivity. The GAM approach showed minimal SOC predictive importance of the remaining six environmental factors identified by the RF approach. Our derived empirical relations produced comparable prediction accuracy as the GAM and RF approach using only a subset of environmental factors. The empirical relationships we derived using the GAM approach can serve as important benchmarks to evaluate environmental control representations of SOC stocks in ESMs, which could reduce uncertainty in predicting future carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Pasture Conversion to Sugarcane on Water Fluxes and Water Use Efficiency in the Southeastern US

The expansion of sugarcane (cane), a high-yielding perennial crop, will likely reshape the bioenergy landscape in the Southeastern US. However, its ecohydrological implications, particularly following conversion from grazed pastures, a dominant land use in the region, remain highly uncertain. We investigated the impact of cane expansion on evapotranspiration (ET) and its partitioning, and the mechanisms influencing both ET components and water use efficiency (WUE) across multiple scales and growth cycles in subtropical Florida. We combined eddy covariance, biometric measurements, and process-based stomatal conductance (g s ) models. ET was 1.7% lower in cane than in improved pasture (IMP) but exceeded that in semi-native pasture (SN) by 21%. Transpiration (T) followed a similar pattern, consistent with lower g s in cane relative to IMP. Cane had more conservative water use and greater sensitivity of g s to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) compared to IMP pasture, suggesting cane may be more tolerant of increasing atmospheric water demand. In contrast, SN showed lower g s and weaker stomatal sensitivity to VPD compared to cane, resulting in lower T. In cane, stomatal regulation and T varied across growth cycles, with stomata becoming less water conservative as stands matured, highlighting the importance of incorporating stand age-dependent stomatal regulation into hydrological models. Evaporation (E) was higher in cane than pastures (19%–26%), partially offsetting WUE gains. Cane exhibited higher intrinsic WUE (GPP/g s ; Gross Primary Productivity), ecosystem WUE (GPP/ET), and harvest WUE (harvest/ET) than both pasture types. Large-scale pasture-to-cane conversion could produce widely contrasting hydrological outcomes. The net regional impact will depend on the proportion of each pasture type converted and on cane's high g s sensitivity to VPD, which triggers tight stomatal regulation and conservative water use, both of which will become increasingly consequential under intensifying atmospheric water demand.

bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evapotranspiration partitioning estimates from 8 methods from 47 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides daily estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) and the transpiration-to-evapotranspiration ratio (T/ET) across 47 terrestrial National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites spanning diverse environmental and biome conditions in the United States across three years of data (2019-2021). Daily ET is reported in both energy units (MJ m⁻² day⁻¹) and equivalent water depth (mm day⁻¹), assuming a constant latent heat of vaporization of 2.45 MJ/kg. The primary method uses a hybrid recurrent neural network–Penman–Monteith framework (RNN-PM), which integrates physically based surface energy balance constraints with data-driven learning to partition ET into transpiration and evaporation components. Model inputs include in situ meteorological observations (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, wind speed, and radiation) combined with satellite-derived land surface temperature, leaf area index, and soil moisture. For benchmarking and uncertainty assessment, T/ET estimates from seven additional models are included: Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL), Penman-Monteith (P-M), Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), among others—spanning empirical, machine-learning, and process-based approaches (see methods section or linked publication for detailed descriptions). Data Package Contents: The dataset a csv files containing daily ET and T/ET estimates for each site and model, along with associated metadata files these variables. Data can be accessed using common spreadsheet software (e.g., Microsoft Excel, LibreOffice) or programming environments such as R or Python. Together, these data support cross-site comparisons of ecosystem water use, evaluation of ET partitioning methods, and development of improved land–atmosphere exchange models.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE↗
DOE OSTI2023

LANL contributions to isoWater R package

The ratio of heavy-to-light stable isotope abundance in water vapor is a tracer of atmospheric processes including evapotranspiration, condensation, mixing, and transport. Measurements of these isotope ratios at the surface, in the atmospheric column, or from satellites provide insights into atmospheric processes that cannot be gained from measurements of water vapor mixing ratios alone. A number of theoretical models for how water vapor isotope ratios should vary in response to atmospheric processes have been developed, and LANL contributions to the isoWater R package provides a simplified interface for calculating expected vapor isotope ratios based on these models and adding them to plots of water vapor isotope ratios.

Fiorella, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2025

Baseflow Identification via Explainable AI With Kolmogorov‐Arnold Networks

Abstract Hydrological models often involve constitutive laws that may not be optimal in every application. We propose to replace such laws with the Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs), a class of neural networks designed to identify symbolic expressions. We demonstrate KAN's potential on the problem of baseflow identification, a notoriously challenging task plagued by significant uncertainty. KAN‐derived functional dependencies of the baseflow components on the aridity index outperform their original counterparts; they demonstrate that water availability, rather than potential evapotranspiration, drives baseflow by constraining actual evapotranspiration under arid conditions. On a test set, they increase the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) by 65%, decrease the root mean squared error by 29%, and increase the Kling‐Gupta efficiency by 34%. This superior performance is achieved while reducing the number of fitting parameters from three to two. Next, we use data from 378 catchments across the continental United States to refine the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale. The KAN‐derived equations based on the refined water balance outperform both the current aridity index model, with up to a 105% increase in NSE, and the KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. While the performance of our model and tree‐based machine learning methods is similar, KANs offer the advantage of simplicity and transparency and require no specific software or computational tools. This case study focuses on the aridity index formulation, but the approach is flexible and transferable to other hydrological processes. Plain Language Summary Equations used in hydrologic model are often suboptimal, resulting in reduced prediction accuracy and efficiency. We implemented Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KAN), a machine learning algorithm for deriving symbolic formulations, to estimate groundwater recharge and showed that it outperforms an existing state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical formulation. In hydrology, Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) are commonly used to evaluate model performance. Higher NSE and KGE values indicate better performance, while lower RMSE values are preferable. Our results show that NSE increased by 71%, RMSE decreased by 32%, and KGE improved by 25%. In addition, KAN identifies an optimal functional form and can be used to derive new analytical formulas using the prior knowledge. The KAN‐inspired equation outperformed the original formulation and reduced the fitting parameters. Furthermore, we refined the water‐balance equation at the mean‐annual scale and showed that, based on the new water‐balance equation, KAN can derive new formulations that are superior to the original aridity index formulations (up to 105% increase in NSE) and KAN‐derived equations based on the original water balance. These findings highlight the significant potential of KAN to advance the scientific understanding of a wide range of hydrologic processes. Key Points Kolmogorov‐Arnold networks (KANs) enhance interpretability of machine‐learned hydrological models KAN‐derived symbolic formulations outperform state‐of‐the‐art semi‐empirical aridity indices KAN‐identified functional form yields an analytical index with fewer fitting parameters and improved performance

baseflow↗