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At least 181 records · Page 10

Machine learning method for enforcing variable independence in background estimation with LHC data: ABCDisCoTEC

A novel solution is presented for the problem of estimating the backgrounds of a signal search using observed data while simultaneously maximizing the sensitivity of the search to the signal. The 'ABCD method' provides a reliable framework for background estimation by partitioning events into one signal-enhanced region (A) and three background-enhanced control regions (B, C, and D) via two smoothly varying, statistically independent variables. In practice, even slight correlations between the two variables can significantly undermine the method's performance. Thus, choosing appropriate variables by hand can present a formidable challenge, especially when background and signal differ only subtly. To address this issue, the ABCD with distance correlation (ABCDisCo) method was developed to construct two learned variables via a neural network trained to provide strong signal-background discrimination with small values of the distance correlation (DisCo) measure between the two learned variables. However, relying solely on minimizing the DisCo can result in learned variables that may not have distributions of background events that are smoothly varying and localized at extreme values, as necessary for the validity of the background estimation. The ABCDisCo training enhanced with closure (ABCDisCoTEC) method is introduced to solve this issue by directly minimizing the nonclosure, expressed as a dedicated differentiable loss term. This extended method is applied to a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the CMS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Additionally, given the complexity of the minimization problem with constraints on multiple loss terms, the modified differential method of multipliers is applied and shown to greatly improve the stability and robustness of the ABCDisCoTEC method, compared to grid search hyperparameter optimization procedures.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗

A dark siren measurement of the Hubble constant using gravitational wave events from the first three LIGO/Virgo observing runs and DELVE

The current and next observation seasons will detect hundreds of gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary systems coalescence at cosmological distances. When combined with independent electromagnetic measurements, the source redshift will be known, and we will be able to obtain precise measurements of the Hubble constant H_0 via the distance–redshift relation. However, most observed mergers are not expected to have electromagnetic counterparts, which prevents a direct redshift measurement. In this scenario, one possibility is to use the dark sirens method that statistically marginalizes over all the potential host galaxies within the GW location volume to provide a probabilistic source redshift. Here we presented H_0 measurements using two new dark sirens compared to previous analyses using DECam data: GW190924|$\_$|021846 and GW200202|$\_$|154313. The photometric redshifts of the possible host galaxies of these two events are acquired from the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE) carried out on the Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo. The combination of the H_0 posterior from GW190924|$\_$|021846 and GW200202|$\_$|154313 together with the bright siren GW170817 leads to |$H_{0} = 68.84^{+15.51}_{-7.74}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$|⁠. Including these two dark sirens improves the 68 per cent confidence interval (CI) by 7 per cent over GW170817 alone. This demonstrates that the addition of well-localized dark sirens in such analysis improves the precision of cosmological measurements. Using a sample containing 10 well-localized dark sirens observed during the third LIGO/Virgo observation run, without the inclusion of GW170817, we determine a measurement of |$H_{0} = 76.00^{+17.64}_{-13.45}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$|⁠.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Load Matching Potential of Urban Renewables during Extreme Heat in New York City

Integration of renewable resources to meet growing energy demand is becoming a global priority under decarbonization mandates. This study contributes to ongoing efforts on the matter by assessing the feasibility of using offshore wind and rooftop photovoltaic systems to meet electricity demand during a period of thermal stress in New York City—August 2019. A unified modelling framework, based on the Urbanized Weather Research and Forecasting model, is used to simulate climate, renewable resources and energy demand variables. Findings show significant energy load miss-match, ranging from 3 to 5 GW, between the demand and the composite renewable generation outcome. This study provides a transferable framework for evaluating renewable integration in dense urban regions and highlights the need for additional strategies to support grid resilience during extreme heat events, while clarifying the role of local resources in fully managing NYC’s load.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales

Changes in precipitation variability can have large societal consequences, whether at the short time scales of flash floods or the longer time scales of multiyear droughts. Recent studies have suggested that in future climate projections, precipitation variability rises more steeply than does its mean, leading to concerns about societal impacts. Here we evaluate changes in mean precipitation over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales using a range of models from high-resolution regional simulations to millennial-scale global simulations. Results show that changes depend on the scale of aggregation and involve strong regional differences. On local scales that resolve individual rainfall events (hours and tens of kilometers), changes in precipitation distributions are complex and variances rise substantially more than means, as is required given the well-known disproportionate rise in precipitation intensity. On scales that aggregate across many events, distributional changes become simpler and variability changes smaller. At regional scale, future precipitation distributions can be largely reproduced by a simple transformation of present-day precipitation involving a multiplicative shift and a small additive term. The “extra” broadening is negatively correlated with changes in mean precipitation: in strongly “wetting” areas, distributions broaden less than expected from a simple multiplicative mean change; in “drying” areas, distributions narrow less. Precipitation variability changes are therefore of especial concern in the subtropics, which tend to dry under climate change. Outside the tropics, variability changes are similar on time scales from days to decades (i.e., show little frequency dependence). This behavior is highly robust across models, suggesting it may stem from some fundamental constraint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Limited Dynamic Earthquake Triggering in Nevada

Dynamic triggering occurs when seismic waves from distant large earthquakes temporarily alter stress conditions along faults, potentially triggering new earthquakes hundreds to thousands of kilometers away from the source. Previous studies have linked triggered seismicity to anthropogenic activities such as geothermal, oil, and gas production. Although these activities are present in Nevada, little work has been conducted to explore dynamically triggered seismicity in Nevada. Here, we analyze a newly published, high-resolution earthquake catalog for Nevada to identify local seismicity dynamically triggered by teleseismic events (Mw≥7) from 2008 to 2023. We identify 94 dynamically triggered earthquakes concentrated in four distinct regions, which qualitatively show a modest positive correlation with geothermal well locations. Triggered seismicity in Nevada is predominantly delayed, with some instantaneously triggered by Rayleigh waves. The prevalence of delayed triggering indicates that pore fluid interactions may play a critical role in controlling dynamic triggering susceptibility in Nevada. Our results demonstrate that dynamic triggering can provide valuable insight to help identify critically stressed regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A priori examination of reduced chemistry models derived from canonical stirred reactors using three-dimensional direct numerical simulation datasets

Data-driven approaches to construct reduced chemical kinetic models, that rely heavily on thermo-chemical datasets with full chemical kinetics, have been gaining popularity. Datasets from direct numerical simulations (DNS) under three-dimensional (3-D) realistic turbulent flow conditions are desirable but limited to carefully designed parametric conditions due to the computational cost. Constructing datasets from a large ensemble of zero-dimensional stirred reactors like perfectly stirred reactor (PSR) and partially stirred reactor (PaSR) is a computationally efficient solution to consider the turbulence-chemistry interactions and cover a broad range of parametric conditions. In this paper, we derive reduced chemistry models from solutions of a large number of PSR and PaSR reactors using autoencoder (AE) neural networks and principal component analysis (PCA), and conduct a priori examination of the reduced models in three temporally evolving 3-D DNS jet flames featuring local extinction and re-ignition. The results show that the reduced models derived from PaSR datasets, i.e., AE-PaSR and PCA-PaSR, generally show significant improvement over the ones derived from PSR datasets. Among all the reduced models, AE-PaSR shows the best agreement with DNS results on the reconstruction accuracy and the representation of temporally evolving local extinction and re-ignition events.

Zhang, Pei↗

Nanometre-resolved observation of electrochemical microenvironment formation at the nanoparticle–ligand interface

The dynamic response of surface ligands on nanoparticles (NPs) to external stimuli critically determines the functionality of NP–ligand systems. For example, in electrocatalysis the collective dissociation of ligands on NP surfaces can lead to the creation of an NP/ordered-ligand interlayer, a microenvironment that is highly active and selective for CO 2 -to-CO conversion. However, the lack of in situ characterization techniques with high spatial resolution hampers a comprehensive molecular-level understanding of the mechanism of interlayer formation. Here, in this work, we utilize in situ infrared nanospectroscopy and surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy, unveiling an electrochemical bias-induced consecutive bond cleavage mechanism of surface ligands leading to formation of the NP/ordered-ligand interlayer. This real-time molecular insight could influence the design of confined localized fields in multiple catalytic systems. Moreover, the demonstrated capability of capturing nanometre-resolved, dynamic molecular-scale events holds promise for the advancement of using controlled local molecular behaviour to achieve desired functionalities across multiple research domains in nanoscience.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Accessibility and Availability of Gas Stations for Liquid Fuel Supply During Severe Weather Events

Energy infrastructure is a pivotal lifeline with wider inter-dependencies. Electric power is essential to the continued functioning of critical assets; liquid fuels and other physical primary energy commodities that are used to supply the local energy needs of these assets during extreme events when electricity infrastructure is compromised. During Superstorm Sandy, the disruption of fuel supplies in the Tri-state area necessitated increasing situational awareness about oil and natural gas (ONG) systems to redirect fuel supplies to first responders and for restoration efforts. During winter storm events over the past several years, the demand for ONG for heating and power generation has skyrocketed in the north-east, which subsequently had caused ONG price to hit their highest level in years. ONG is a major energy source for restoration and recovery activities. However, very little, if any, situational awareness information about ONG supply and demand is available to those coordinating emergency efforts. Often this lack of information is due to the decentralized nature of the ONG supply chain and proprietary data maintained by private entities. To understand the impact of fuel availability on response and recovery efforts, this research focuses on (i) determining the accessibility to gas stations for liquid fuel supply across space and time, and (ii) examining the spatio-temporal variation of fuel availability and demand during extreme weather events. The broader scope of the project focuses on providing spatio-temporal situational awareness information about ONG availability and demand across the fuel supply chain for positioning of resources for response activities.

Kar, Bandana↗

Electromagnetic power of lightning superbolts from Earth to space

Lightning superbolts are the most powerful and rare lightning events with intense optical emission, first identified from space. Superbolt events occurred in 2010-2018 could be localized by extracting the high energy tail of the lightning stroke signals measured by the very low frequency ground stations of the World-Wide Lightning Location Network. Here, we report electromagnetic observations of superbolts from space using Van Allen Probes satellite measurements, and ground measurements, and with two events measured both from ground and space. From burst-triggered measurements, we compute electric and magnetic power spectral density for very low frequency waves driven by superbolts, both on Earth and transmitted into space, demonstrating that superbolts transmit 10-1000 times more powerful very low frequency waves into space than typical strokes and revealing that their extreme nature is observed in space. We find several properties of superbolts that notably differ from most lightning flashes; a more symmetric first ground-wave peak due to a longer rise time, larger peak current, weaker decay of electromagnetic power density in space with distance, and a power mostly confined in the very low frequency range. Their signal is absent in space during day times and is received with a long-time delay on the Van Allen Probes. These results have implications for our understanding of lightning and superbolts, for ionosphere-magnetosphere wave transmission, wave propagation in space, and remote sensing of extreme events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Toward higher-radix switches with co-packaged optics for improved network locality in data center and HPC networks [Invited]

In this work, we study the network locality improvements that can be achieved by using co-packaged optics in data center and high-performance computing (HPC) networks. The increased escape bandwidth offered by co-packaged optics can enable switches with speeds of 51.2 Tb/s and beyond. From a network architecture perspective, the key advantages of introducing co-packaged optics at the switch points include the implementation of large-scale topologies of >12,000 end points with 4× higher bisection bandwidth and the reduction of the required number of switches by >40% compared with state-of-the-art approaches. From a network operation perspective, improved network locality and faster operation can be achieved since the higher-radix switches can mitigate the impact of network contention. Placing applications under fewer leaf switches reduces the number of packets that cross the spine switches in a leaf-spine topology. The proposed scheme is evaluated via discrete-event simulations: we initially evaluate the network locality properties of the system by using virtual-machine traces from a production data center, and we subsequently quantify the performance improvements by simulating an all-to-all pattern for a variety of message sizes over a number of nodes. The results suggest that co-packaged optics form a promising solution for keeping up with bandwidth scaling in future networks. The virtual-machine analysis shows that large-scale applications can be placed under up to 50% fewer first-level switches, while the network analysis shows speedups of up to 7.1, which translates to execution time reductions of up to 26% and 42.7% for applications with communication ratios of 0.3 and 0.5, respectively.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

LArCADe | Liquid Argon Charge Amplification Devices

The Liquid Argon Charge Amplification Devices (LArCADe) project is an R$\&$D effort aimed at developing instrumentation capable of lowering detection thresholds for ionization signatures in liquid and gaseous argon detectors and achieving O(100 $\mu$m) position resolution. The core concept is the use of sharp “tip arrays” that generate strong local electric-field enhancement, enabling charge amplification and collection with improved spatial resolution. A key physics motivation for this work is to enhance the experimental sensitivity of Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CEvNS) measurements to low-energy nuclear recoils by enabling spatially resolved charge reconstruction at reduced ionization thresholds, with the goal of achieving event-by-event energy reconstruction for interactions originating from localized accelerator or astrophysical neutrino sources. This poster will present the current status of the instrumentation R$\&$D, which leverages Fermilab’s Noble Liquid Test Facility and UC Santa Barbara’s Nanofabrication Facility, and will discuss the potential physics impact of this technology.

Antonakis, Alexander [UC, Santa Barbara]↗

Probing the chiral magnetic wave with charge-dependent flow measurements in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC

The Chiral Magnetic Wave (CMW) phenomenon is essential to provide insights into the strong interaction in QCD, the properties of the quark-gluon plasma, and the topological characteristics of the early universe, offering a deeper understanding of fundamental physics in high-energy collisions. Measurements of the charge-dependent anisotropic flow coefficients are studied in Pb-Pb collisions at center-of-mass energy per nucleon-nucleon collision $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV to probe the CMW. In particular, the slope of the normalized difference in elliptic (v 2 ) and triangular (v 3 ) flow coefficients of positively and negatively charged particles as a function of their event-wise normalized number difference, is reported for inclusive and identified particles. The slope ${r}_3^{\textrm{Norm}}$ is found to be larger than zero and to have a magnitude similar to ${r}_2^{\textrm{Norm}}$, thus pointing to a large background contribution for these measurements. Furthermore, ${r}_2^{\textrm{Norm}}$ can be described by a blast wave model calculation that incorporates local charge conservation. In addition, using the event shape engineering technique yields a fraction of CMW (f CMW ) contribution to this measurement which is compatible with zero. This measurement provides the very first upper limit for f CMW , and in the 10–60% centrality interval it is found to be 26% (38%) at 95% (99.7%) confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Machine-Learning-Based High-Resolution Earthquake Catalog Reveals How Complex Fault Structures Were Activated during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Sequence

The 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence occurred on an 80 km long normal-fault system. The sequence initiated with the Mw 6.0 Amatrice event on 24 August 2016, followed by the Mw 5.9 Visso event on 26 October and the Mw 6.5 Norcia event on 30 October. We analyze continuous data from a dense network of 139 seismic stations to build a high-precision catalog of ~900,000 earthquakes spanning a 1 yr period, based on arrival times derived using a deep-neural-network-based picker. Our catalog contains an order of magnitude more events than the catalog routinely produced by the local earthquake monitoring agency. Aftershock activity reveals the geometry of complex fault structures activated during the earthquake sequence and provides additional insights into the potential factors controlling the development of the largest events. Activated fault structures in the northern and southern regions appear complementary to faults activated during the 1997 Colfiorito and 2009 L’Aquila sequences, suggesting that earthquake triggering primarily occurs on critically stressed faults. Delineated major fault zones are relatively thick compared to estimated earthquake location uncertainties, and a large number of kilometer-long faults and diffuse seismicity were activated during the sequence. These properties might be related to fault age, roughness, and the complexity of inherited structures. The rich details resolvable in this catalog will facilitate continued investigation of this energetic and well-recorded earthquake sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Magnitude and Timing of the Tiltill Rockslide in Yosemite National Park, California

Yosemite National Park, California, is one of the best-documented sites of historical rockfalls and other rock slope failures; however, past work shows that this record does not capture the infrequent largest occurrences, prehistoric events orders of magnitude larger than the largest historic ones. These large prehistoric events are evident as voluminous bouldery landslide deposits, permitting volume and age quantification to better understand local volume–frequency relationships, potential triggering mechanisms, and the hazard such events might pose. The Tiltill rockslide in northern Yosemite is one such example, consisting of 2.1 × 10 6 m 3 ± 1.6 × 10 6 m 3 of talus (1.5 × 10 6 m 3 original volume of rock mass) that slid across the floor of Tiltill Valley, partially damming Tiltill Creek to create a seasonal pond that drains through and around the rockslide mass. This volume and the rockslide's effective coefficient of friction, 0.47, place it near the boundary between long-runout landslides and ordinary Coulomb failure. Although the rockslide superficially appears to consist of two separate lobes, statistically indistinguishable 10 Be exposure dates from eight samples indicate a single event that occurred at 13.0 ± 0.8 ka. The age of the Tiltill rockslide and its relatively low elevation compared to equilibrium line altitudes at this place and time make glacial debutressing a highly unlikely triggering mechanism. Additionally, seismic shaking associated with fault rupture along the eastern Sierra Nevada is shown to be a plausible but unverified trigger.

10Be cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating↗

Statistical and temporal characteristics of sawtooth events

Magnetospheric sawtooth events are characterized by periodic particle injections and magnetic dipolarizations spread quasi-simultaneously across a wide range of magnetic local times. We present a comprehensive statistical study of magnetospheric sawtooth events (STEs) during solar cycle 24 (2008–2016), extending previous catalogs and enabling solar cycle comparisons. Our results confirm that STEs predominantly occur during the rising and declining phases of the solar cycle, and are strongly associated with geomagnetic storms. Superposed epoch analysis reveals near-simultaneous particle injections across all magnetic local time sectors, but magnetic field dipolarization confined to the midnight region. These results support a scenario in which nightside tail reconnection and enhanced convection are the primary drivers of sawtooth oscillations. The localization of magnetic dipolarizations during STEs challenges global instability interpretations and suggests that STEs represent a stormtime substorm mode triggered under specific solar wind and magnetotail conditions. Superposed epoch analyses also show enhanced oxygen content in the magnetosphere during sawtooth events, but do not show a significant difference from geomagnetic storms that do not exhibit periodic behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Grid Event Signature Library Analytics Report: Signature Matching Tool Development Efforts

This report describes the purpose and features of the Signature Matching Tool (SMT), employed in the Department of Energy (DOE) Grid Event Signature Library (GESL). The SMT supports a user of GESL to identify snippets of electric signatures, usually from sensor devices measuring electric characteristics such as phase voltages and currents, frequency, etc., suspected to represent certain events in the power grid but are not known to the user. The SMT uses a classification method to identify an event of the unknown signature, using the repository of known and labeled signatures in the GESL. The classifier applies a local binary classifier per node (LCN) approach to the unique event tag taxonomy used in the GESL, where training phases are separated based on the Primary labels in the taxonomy, sensor type, and voltage level. Results show that this method helps with computing time during training, in comparison to a flat, multinomial classifier, and produces acceptable average accuracy of 83% across all Primary labels. The report concludes with planned future work including integration to the web interface and API.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Iron-rich microstructure records of high temperature multi-component silicate melt behavior in nuclear fallout

Above-ground nuclear explosions that interact with the surface of the earth entrain materials from the surrounding environment, influencing the resulting physical and chemical evolution of the fireball, which can affect the final chemical phase and mobility of hazardous radionuclides that are dispersed in the environment as fallout particles. The interaction of iron with a nuclear explosion is of specific interest due to the potential for iron to act as a redox buffer and because of the likelihood of significant masses of metals to be present in urban environments. We investigated fallout from a historic surface interacting nuclear explosion conducted on a steel tower and report the discovery of widespread and diverse iron-rich micro-structures preserved within the samples, including crystalline dendrites and micron-scale iron-rich spheres with liquid immiscibility textures. We assert these micro-structures reflect local redox conditions and cooling rates and can inform interpretation of high temperature events, enabling new insights into fireball condensation physics and chemistry when metals from the local environment (i.e. structural steel) are vaporized or entrained. Finally, these observations also significantly expand the availability of silicate immiscibility datasets applicable to rapidly quenched systems such as meteorite impact melt glass.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Detecting hidden transient events in noisy nonlinear time-series

The information impulse function (IIF), running Variance, and local Hölder Exponent are three conceptually different time-series evaluation techniques. These techniques examine time-series for local changes in information content, statistical variation, and point-wise smoothness, respectively. Using simulated data emulating a randomly excited nonlinear dynamical system, this study interrogates the utility of each method to correctly differentiate a transient event from the background while simultaneously locating it in time. Computational experiments are designed and conducted to evaluate the efficacy of each technique by varying pulse size, time location, and noise level in time-series. Our findings reveal that, in most cases, the first instance of a transient event is more easily observed with the information-based approach of IIF than with the Variance and local Hölder Exponent methods. While our study highlights the unique strengths of each technique, the results suggest that very robust and reliable event detection for nonlinear systems producing noisy time-series data can be obtained by incorporating the IIF into the analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗