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Results for “evolutionary predictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1995

The luminosity function of quasars

We propose a new evolutionary model for the optical luminosity function of quasars. Our analytical model is derived from fits to the empirical luminosity function estimated by Hartwick and Schade and Warren, Hewett, and Osmer on the basis of more than 1200 quasars over the range of redshifts 0 approximately less than z approximately less than 4.5. We find that the evolution of quasars over this entire redshift range can be well fitted by a Gaussian distribution, while the shape of the luminosity function can be well fitted by either a double power law or an exponential L(exp 1/4) law. The predicted number counts of quasars, as a function of either apparent magnitude or redshift, are fully consistent with the observed ones. Our model indicates that the evolution of quasars reaches its maximum at z approximately = 2.8 and declines at higher redshifts. An extrapolation of the evolution to z approximately greater than 4.5 implies that quasars may have started their cosmic fireworks at z(sub f) approximately = 5.2-5.5. Forthcoming surveys of quasars at these redshifts will be critical to constrain the epoch of quasar formation. All the results we derived are based on observed quasars and are therefore subject to the bias of obscuration by dust in damped Ly alpha systems. Future surveys of these absorption systems at z approximately greater than 3 will also be important if the formation epoch of quasars is to be known unambiguously.

Pei, Yichuan C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Photochemistry in planetary atmospheres

Widely varying paths of evolutionary history, atmospheric processes, solar fluxes, and temperatures have produced vastly different planetary atmospheres. The similarities and differences between the earth atmosphere and those of the terrestrial planets (Venus and Mars) and of the Jovian planets are discussed in detail; consideration is also given to the photochemistry of Saturn, Uranus, Pluto, Neptune, Titan, and Triton. Changes in the earth's ancient atmosphere are described, and problems of interest in the earth's present troposphere are discussed, including the down wind effect, plume interactions, aerosol nucleation and growth, acid rain, and the fate of terpenes. Temperature fluctuations in the four principal layers of the earth's atmosphere, predicted decreases in the ozone concentration as a function of time, and spectra of particles in the earth's upper atmosphere are also presented. Finally, the vertical structure of the Venus cloud system and the thermal structure of the Jovian planets are shown graphically.

Levine, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1978

An orbital service module systems concept

An Orbital Service Module (OSM) system represents a concept for an evolutionary program that will provide utilities services such as electrical power, heat rejection, attitude control, and communications to support payload operations in both Shuttle-tended and untended (free-flyer) modes. The initial program step is a Space Transportation System (STS) power extension package (a solar array system carried by the Orbiter and deployed by the remote manipulator system). The power extension package (PEP) develops the major components of the more sophisticated OSM vehicles. Major objectives of such an approach are (1) the continuous matching of a capability to meet real needs while avoiding the pitfalls usually associated with the uncertainties inherent in long-range prediction of future requirements, and (2) the economies attendant with program continuity and hardware commonality. The initial Orbiter-carried PEP and several later OSM system growth options are discussed.

Craig, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A differential CDM model for fatigue of unidirectional metal matrix composites

A multiaxial, isothermal, continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model for fatigue of a unidirectional metal matrix composite volume element is presented. The model is phenomenological, stress based, and assumes a single scalar internal damage variable, the evolution of which is anisotropic. The development of the fatigue damage model, (i.e., evolutionary law) is based on the definition of an initially transversely isotropic fatigue limit surface, a static fracture surface, and a normalized stress amplitude function. The anisotropy of these surfaces and function, and therefore the model, is defined through physically meaningful invariants reflecting the local stress and material orientation. This transversely isotropic model is shown, when taken to it's isotropic limit, to directly simplify to a previously developed and validated isotropic fatigue continuum damage model. Results of a nondimensional parametric study illustrate (1) the flexibility of the present formulation in attempting to characterize a class of composite materials, and (2) the capability of the formulation in predicting anticipated qualitative trends in the fatigue behavior of unidirectional metal matrix composites. Also, specific material parameters representing an initial characterization of the composite system SiC/Ti 15-3 and the matrix material (Ti 15-3) are reported.

Arnold, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A model for the evolution of CO2 on Mars

We have constructed a model that predicts the evolution of CO2 on Mars from the end of the heavy bombardment period to the present. The model draws on published estimates of the main processes believed to affect the fate of CO2 during this period: chemical weathering, regolith uptake, polar cap formation, and atmospheric escape. Except for escape, the rate at which these processes act is controlled by surface temperatures which we calculate using a modified version of the Gierasch and Toon energy balance model. The modifications account for the change in solar luminosity with time, the greenhouse effect, and a polar and equatorial energy budget. Using published estimates for the main parameters, we find no evolutionary scenario in which CO2 is capable of producing a warm (global mean temperatures greater than 250 K) and wet (surface pressures greater than 30 mbar) early climate, and then evolves to present conditions with approximately 7 mbar in the atmosphere, less than 300 mbar in the regolith, and less than 5 mbar in the caps. Such scenarios would only exist if the early sun were brighter than standard solar models suggest, if greenhouse gases other than CO2 were present in the early atmosphere, or if the polar albedo were significantly lower than 0.75. However, these scenarios generally require the storage of large amounts of CO2 (greater than 1 bar) in the carbonate reservoir. If the warm and wet early Mars constraint is relaxed, then we find best overall agreement with present day reservoirs for initial CO2 inventories of 0.5-1.0 bar. We also find that the polar caps can have a profound effect on how the system evolves. If the initial amount of CO2 is less than some critical value, then there is not enough heating of the poles to prevent permanent caps from forming. Once formed, these caps control how the system evolves, because they set the surface pressure and, hence, the thermal environment. If the initial amount of CO2 is greater than this critical value, then caps do not form initially, but can form later on, when weathering and escape lower the surface pressure to a point at which polar heating is no longer sufficient to prevent cap formation and the collapse of the climate system. Our modeling suggests this critical initial amount of CO2 is between 1 and 2 bar, but its true value will depend on all factors affecting the polar heat budget.

Haberle, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Helioseismic Constraints on New Solar Models from the MoSEC Code

Evolutionary solar models are computed using a new stellar evolution code, MOSEC (Modular Stellar Evolution Code). This code has been designed with carefully controlled truncation errors in order to achieve a precision which reflects the increasingly accurate determination of solar interior structure by helioseismology. A series of models is constructed to investigate the effects of the choice of equation of state (OPAL or MHD-E, the latter being a version of the MHD equation of state recalculated by the author), the inclusion of helium and heavy-element settling and diffusion, and the inclusion of a simple model of mixing associated with the solar tachocline. The neutrino flux predictions are discussed, while the sound speed of the computed models is compared to that of the sun via the latest inversion of SOI-NMI p-mode frequency data. The comparison between models calculated with the OPAL and MHD-E equations of state is particularly interesting because the MHD-E equation of state includes relativistic effects for the electrons, whereas neither MHD nor OPAL do. This has a significant effect on the sound speed of the computed model, worsening the agreement with the solar sound speed. Using the OPAL equation of state and including the settling and diffusion of helium and heavy elements produces agreement in sound speed with the helioseismic results to within about +.-0.2%; the inclusion of mixing slightly improves the agreement.

Elliott, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effects of Low Activity Solar Cycle on Orbital Debris Lifetime

Long duration of low solar activity in the last solar minimum has an undesirable consequence of extending the lifetime of orbital debris. The AFRL TacSat-2 satellite decommissioned in 2008 has finally re-entered into the atmosphere on February 5th after more than one year overdue. Concerning its demise we have monitored its orbital decay and monthly forecasted Tacsat-2 re-entry since September 2010 by using the Orbital Element Prediction (OEP) model developed by the AFRL Orbital Drag Environment program. The model combines estimates of future solar activity with neutral density models, drag coefficient models, and an orbit propagator to predict satellite lifetime. We run the OEP model with solar indices forecast by the NASA Marshall Solar Activity Future Estimation model, and neutral density forecast by the MSIS-00 neutral density model. Based on the two line elements in 2010 up to mid September, we estimated at a 50% confidence level TacSat-2's re-entry time to be in early February 2011, which turned out to be in good agreement with Tacsat-2's actual re-entry date. The potential space weather effects of the coming low activity solar cycle on satellite lifetime and orbital debris population are examined. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of solar flux on the orbital debris population in the 200-600 km altitude environment. The results are discussed for developing satellite orbital drag application product.

Cable, Samual B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Theoretical studies in interstellar cloud chemistry

This final report represents the completion of the three tasks under the purchase order no. SCPDE5620,1,2F. Chemical composition of gravitationally contracting, but otherwise quiescent, interstellar clouds and of interstellar clouds traversed by high velocity shocks, were modeled in a comprehensive manner that represents a significant progress in modeling these objects. The evolutionary chemical modeling, done under this NASA contract, represents a notable advance over the 'classical' fixed condition equilibrium models because the evolutionary models consider not only the chemical processes but also the dynamical processes by which the dark interstellar clouds may have assumed their present state. The shock calculations, being reported here, are important because they extend the limited chemical composition derivable from dynamical calculations for the total density and temperature structures behind the shock front. In order to be tractable, the dynamical calculations must severely simplify the chemistry. The present shock calculations take the shock profiles from the dynamical calculations and derive chemical composition in a comprehensive manner. The results of the present modeling study are still to be analyzed with reference to astronomical observational data and other contemporary model predictions. As far as humanly possible, this analysis will be continued with CRE's (Creative Research Enterprises's) IR&D resources, until a sponsor is found.

Chiu, Y. T.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Progress Towards an Interdisciplinary Science of Plant Phenology: Building Predictions Across Space, Time and Species Diversity

Climate change has brought renewed interest in the study of plant phenology - the timing of life history events. Data on shifting phenologies with warming have accumulated rapidly, yet research has been comparatively slow to explain the diversity of phenological responses observed across latitudes, growing seasons and species. Here, we outline recent efforts to synthesize perspectives on plant phenology across the fields of ecology, climate science and evolution. We highlight three major axes that vary among these disciplines: relative focus on abiotic versus biotic drivers of phenology, on plastic versus genetic drivers of intraspecific variation, and on cross-species versus autecological approaches. Recent interdisciplinary efforts, building on data covering diverse species and climate space, have found a greater role of temperature in controlling phenology at higher latitudes and for early-flowering species in temperate systems. These efforts have also made progress in understanding the tremendous diversity of responses across species by incorporating evolutionary relatedness, and linking phenological flexibility to invasions and plant performance. Future research with a focus on data collection in areas outside the temperate mid-latitudes and across species' ranges, alongside better integration of how risk and investment shape plant phenology, offers promise for further progress.

phenology↗
NASA NTRS1993

Dynamic tests on the NASA Langley CSI evolutionary model

A modal analysis study, representing one of the anticipated 'Cooperative Spacecraft Structural Dynamics Experiments on the NASA Langley CSI Evolutionary Model', was carried out as a sub-task under the NASA/DLR collaboration in dynamics and control of large space systems. The CSI evolutionary testbed (CEM) is designed for the development of Controls-Structures Interaction (CSI) technology to improve space science platform pointing. For orbiting space structures like large flexible trusses, new identification challenges arise due to their specific dynamic characteristics (low frequencies and high modal density) on the one hand, and the limited possibilities of exciting such structures and measuring their responses on orbit on the other. The main objective was to investigate the modal identification potential of several different types of forcing functions that could possibly be realized with on-board excitation equipment using a minimum number of exciter locations as well as response locations. These locations were defined in an analytical test prediction process used to study the implications of measuring and analyzing the responses thus produced. It turned out that broadband excitation is needed for a general modal survey, but if only certain modes are of particular interest, combinations of exponentially decaying sine functions provide favorable excitation conditions as they allow to concentrate the available energy on the modes being of special interest. From a practical point-of-view structural nonlinearities as well as noisy measurements make the analysis more difficult, especially in the low frequency range and when the modes are closely spaced.

Troidl, H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Test plan. GCPS task 7, subtask 7.1: IHM development

The overall objective of Task 7 is to identify cost-effective life cycle integrated health management (IHM) approaches for a reusable launch vehicle's primary structure. Acceptable IHM approaches must: eliminate and accommodate faults through robust designs, identify optimum inspection/maintenance periods, automate ground and on-board test and check-out, and accommodate and detect structural faults by providing wide and localized area sensor and test coverage as required. These requirements are elements of our targeted primary structure low cost operations approach using airline-like maintenance by exception philosophies. This development plan will follow an evolutionary path paving the way to the ultimate development of flight-quality production, operations, and vehicle systems. This effort will be focused on maturing the recommended sensor technologies required for localized and wide area health monitoring to a technology readiness level (TRL) of 6 and to establish flight ready system design requirements. The following is a brief list of IHM program objectives: design out faults by analyzing material properties, structural geometry, and load and environment variables and identify failure modes and damage tolerance requirements; design in system robustness while meeting performance objectives (weight limitations) of the reusable launch vehicle primary structure; establish structural integrity margins to preclude the need for test and checkout and predict optimum inspection/maintenance periods through life prediction analysis; identify optimum fault protection system concept definitions combining system robustness and integrity margins established above with cost effective health monitoring technologies; and use coupons, panels, and integrated full scale primary structure test articles to identify, evaluate, and characterize the preferred NDE/NDI/IHM sensor technologies that will be a part of the fault protection system.

Greenberg, H. S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Chemical Abundances of the Planetary Nebula IC 4634 and Its Central Star

We have measured the spectral line intensities of the metal poor planetary nebula IC 4634. Using a photo-ionization model calculation, we try to fit the the optical and UV region spectra, i.e., Hamilton Echelle and IUE observations. From direct images, one expects complicated density variations, but the model predicts a range in densities that may be smaller than actually exist. We find N(sub epsilon) approximates 5000 /cubic meter. In spite of the geometrical complexity of the S shaped double-lobed structure, the simple photoionization model with a spherical symmetry can fit most emission lines, fairly well. The derived chemical composition has been compared with previous estimates and also with the Sun - The metallicity in IC 4634 appears to be lower than in the Sun or the average planetary nebula. The most likely temperature of the central ionizing source of IC 4634 appears to be about 55,000 K. We find a central star mass of about 0.55 Solar Mass from comparison with theoretical evolutionary tracks.

Hyung, S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A model of onshore-offshore change in faunal diversity

Onshore-offshore patterns of faunal change occurred at many taxonomic scales during the Paleozoic Era, ranging from replacement of the Cambrian evolutionary fauna by the Paleozoic fauna to the environmental expansion of many orders and classes. A simple mathematical model is constructed to investigate such change. The environmental gradient across the marine shelf-slope is treated as a linear array of discrete habitats, each of which holds a set number of species, as observed in the fossil record. During any interval of time, some portion of the species in each habitat becomes extinct by background processes, with rates of extinction varying among both clades and habitats, as also observed in the record. After extinction, species are replaced from within the habitat and from immediately adjacent habitats, with proportions dependent on surviving species. This model leads to the prediction that extinction-resistant clades will always diversify at the expense of extinction-prone clades. But if extinction intensity is highest in nearshore habitats, extinction-resistant clades will expand preferentially in the onshore direction, build up diversity there, and then diversify outward toward the offshore. Thus, onshore-offshore patterns of diversification may be the expectation for faunal change quite independently of whether or not clades originate onshore. When the model is parameterized for Paleozoic trilobites and brachiopods, numerical solutions exhibit both a pattern of faunal change and a time span for diversification similar to that seen in the fossil record. They also generate structure similar to that seen in global diversification, including logistic patterns of growth, declining origination but constant extinction within clades through time, and declining overall extinction across clades through time.

NASA Discipline Number 52-40↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Globally Optimal Particle Tracking Technique for Stereo Imaging Velocimetry Experiments

An important phase of any Stereo Imaging Velocimetry experiment is particle tracking. Particle tracking seeks to identify and characterize the motion of individual particles entrained in a fluid or air experiment. We analyze a cylindrical chamber filled with water and seeded with density-matched particles. In every four-frame sequence, we identify a particle track by assigning a unique track label for each camera image. The conventional approach to particle tracking is to use an exhaustive tree-search method utilizing greedy algorithms to reduce search times. However, these types of algorithms are not optimal due to a cascade effect of incorrect decisions upon adjacent tracks. We examine the use of a guided evolutionary neural net with simulated annealing to arrive at a globally optimal assignment of tracks. The net is guided both by the minimization of the search space through the use of prior limiting assumptions about valid tracks and by a strategy which seeks to avoid high-energy intermediate states which can trap the net in a local minimum. A stochastic search algorithm is used in place of back-propagation of error to further reduce the chance of being trapped in an energy well. Global optimization is achieved by minimizing an objective function, which includes both track smoothness and particle-image utilization parameters. In this paper we describe our model and present our experimental results. We compare our results with a nonoptimizing, predictive tracker and obtain an average increase in valid track yield of 27 percent

McDowell, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2005

Origin of the Eumetazoa: testing ecological predictions of molecular clocks against the Proterozoic fossil record

Molecular clocks have the potential to shed light on the timing of early metazoan divergences, but differing algorithms and calibration points yield conspicuously discordant results. We argue here that competing molecular clock hypotheses should be testable in the fossil record, on the principle that fundamentally new grades of animal organization will have ecosystem-wide impacts. Using a set of seven nuclear-encoded protein sequences, we demonstrate the paraphyly of Porifera and calculate sponge/eumetazoan and cnidarian/bilaterian divergence times by using both distance [minimum evolution (ME)] and maximum likelihood (ML) molecular clocks; ME brackets the appearance of Eumetazoa between 634 and 604 Ma, whereas ML suggests it was between 867 and 748 Ma. Significantly, the ME, but not the ML, estimate is coincident with a major regime change in the Proterozoic acritarch record, including: (i) disappearance of low-diversity, evolutionarily static, pre-Ediacaran acanthomorphs; (ii) radiation of the high-diversity, short-lived Doushantuo-Pertatataka microbiota; and (iii) an order-of-magnitude increase in evolutionary turnover rate. We interpret this turnover as a consequence of the novel ecological challenges accompanying the evolution of the eumetazoan nervous system and gut. Thus, the more readily preserved microfossil record provides positive evidence for the absence of pre-Ediacaran eumetazoans and strongly supports the veracity, and therefore more general application, of the ME molecular clock.

NASA Discipline Evolutionary Biology↗
NASA NTRS1994

Venus climate stability and volcanic resurfacing rates

The climate of Venus is to a large degree controlled by the radiative properties of its massive atmosphere. In addition, outgassing due to volcanic activity, exospheric escape processes, and surface/atmosphere interactions may all be important in moderating the abundances of atmospheric CO2 and other volatiles. We have developed an evolutionary climate model for Venus using a systems approach that emphasizes feedbacks between elements in the climate system. Modules for atmospheric radiative transfer, surface/atmosphere interactions, tropospheric chemistry, and exospheric escape processes have so far been developed. Climate feedback loops result from interconnections between modules, in the form of the environmental parameters pressure, temperature, and atmospheric mixing ratios. The radiative transfer module has been implemented by using Rosseland mean opacities in a one dimensional grey radiative-convective model. The model has been solved for the static (time independent) case to determine climate equilibrium points. The dynamics of the model have also been explored by employing reaction/diffusion kinetics for possible surface atmosphere heterogeneous reactions over geologic timescales. It was found that under current conditions, the model predicts that the climate of Venus is at or near an unstable equilibrium point. The effects of constant rate volcanism and corresponding exsolution of volatiles on the stability of the climate model were also explored.

Bullock, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Evolutionary models of halo stars with rotation. II - Effects of metallicity on lithium depletion, and possible implications for the primordial lithium abundance

Models of metal-poor stars with rotation were computed and their lithium depletion was compared with observations of halo stars. The models that have turn-off ages compatible with the observations have a nearly flat Li-T(eff) relationship in the region of the Spite lithium 'plateau'. Depending on the initial angular momentum, the models have a depletion factor ranging between a factor of 5 and a factor of 10 at fixed T(eff), implying a maximum initial lithium abundance of 3.1. Both the dispersion and the overall depletion factor are much smaller for metal-poor models than for solar metallicity ones. The factors that determine lithium depletion in rotational models are discussed and the different depletion patterns in solar metallicity and metal-poor models are traced to differences in their structure and evolution. The dependence of the lithium depletion on age, mass, initial angular momentum, and metallicity is also discussed. The dispersion predicted from these models is not inconsistent with the observations.

Pinsonneault, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Paleoproterozoic snowball earth: extreme climatic and geochemical global change and its biological consequences

Geological, geophysical, and geochemical data support a theory that Earth experienced several intervals of intense, global glaciation ("snowball Earth" conditions) during Precambrian time. This snowball model predicts that postglacial, greenhouse-induced warming would lead to the deposition of banded iron formations and cap carbonates. Although global glaciation would have drastically curtailed biological productivity, melting of the oceanic ice would also have induced a cyanobacterial bloom, leading to an oxygen spike in the euphotic zone and to the oxidative precipitation of iron and manganese. A Paleoproterozoic snowball Earth at 2.4 Giga-annum before present (Ga) immediately precedes the Kalahari Manganese Field in southern Africa, suggesting that this rapid and massive change in global climate was responsible for its deposition. As large quantities of O(2) are needed to precipitate this Mn, photosystem II and oxygen radical protection mechanisms must have evolved before 2.4 Ga. This geochemical event may have triggered a compensatory evolutionary branching in the Fe/Mn superoxide dismutase enzyme, providing a Paleoproterozoic calibration point for studies of molecular evolution.

Earth (Planet)↗