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DOE OSTI2022

Design and execution of a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification plan for a numerical model of left ventricular flow after LVAD implantation

Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation. While previous works have used numerical models to study the impact of multiple variables in the intra-LV stagnation regions, a comprehensive validation analysis has never been executed. The main goal of this work is to present a model of the LV-LVAD system and to design and follow a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) plan based on the ASME V&V40 and V&V20 standards to ensure credible predictions. The experiment used to validate the simulation is the SDSU cardiac simulator, a bench mock-up of the cardiovascular system that allows mimicking multiple operation conditions for the heart-LVAD system. The numerical model is based on Alya, the BSC’s in-house platform for numerical modelling. Alya solves the Navier-Stokes equation with an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation in a deformable ventricle and includes pressure-driven valves, a 0D Windkessel model for the arterial output and a LVAD boundary condition modeled through a dynamic pressure-flow performance curve. The designed VVUQ plan involves: (a) a risk analysis and the associated credibility goals; (b) a verification stage to ensure correctness in the numerical solution procedure; (c) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of the inputs on the four quantities of interest (QoIs) (average aortic root flow $Q^{avg}_{Ao}$, maximum aortic root flow $Q^{max}_{Ao}$, average LVAD flow $Q^{avg}_{VAD}$, and maximum LVAD flow $Q^{max}_{VAD}$; (d) an uncertainty quantification using six validation experiments that include extreme operating conditions. Numerical code verification tests ensured correctness of the solution procedure and numerical calculation verification showed a grid convergence index (GCI)95% <3.3%. The total Sobol indices obtained during the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ejection fraction, the heart rate, and the pump performance curve coefficients are the most impactful inputs for the analysed QoIs. The Minkowski norm is used as validation metric for the uncertainty quantification. It shows that the midpoint cases have more accurate results when compared to the extreme cases. The total computational cost of the simulations was above 100 [core-years] executed in around three weeks time span in Marenostrum IV supercomputer. This work details a novel numerical model for the LV-LVAD system, that is supported by the design and execution of a VVUQ plan created following recognised international standards. We present a methodology demonstrating that stringent VVUQ according to ASME standards is feasible but computationally expensive.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Al–W gradient density materials—Processing and dynamic ramp compression

Materials with high-density gradients are desired for controlling loading paths in dynamic compression, important for studying material properties in extreme conditions and inertial confinement fusion. The large density difference between Al and W makes them ideal choices for producing gradient density materials, but their extremely different melting temperatures make them challenging to fabricate simultaneously. We report a method for producing Al–W porosity-free materials with a fourfold increase in density (2.7–11 g/cm 3 ) across the composition range, from Al-rich to W-rich, without intermetallic phase formation. This was achieved by understanding the aluminum-dominated densification behavior and examining the influence of pressure and temperature on the densification of Al–W composites. Dynamic compression experiments conducted with the Al–W gradient density material produced shock ramp compressions as expected based on the designed composition, and the performed hydrodynamics simulations showed excellent agreement with experimental results. The results demonstrate that current activated pressure-assisted densification allows for the easy and rapid fabrication of gradient density materials with significant density gradients and tailored compositions, facilitating precise control of the loading paths. These materials have the potential to create customized pressure drives for advancing the fields of material science in extreme environments and dynamic compression.

Alloys↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydrodynamics of a multicomponent vesicle under strong confinement

Herein we numerically investigate the hydrodynamics and membrane dynamics of a multicomponent vesicle in two strongly confined geometries. This serves as a simplified model for red blood cells undergoing large deformations while traversing narrow constrictions. We propose a new parameterization for the bending modulus that remains positive for all lipid phase parameter values. For a multicomponent vesicle passing through a stenosis, we establish connections between various properties: lipid phase coarsening, size and flow profile of the lubrication layers, excess pressure, and the tank-treading velocity of the membrane. For a multicomponent vesicle passing through a contracting channel, we find that the lipid always phase separates so that the vesicle is stiffer in the front as it passes through the constriction. For both cases of confinement we find that lipid coarsening is arrested under strong confinement, and resumes at a high rate upon relief from extreme confinement. The results may be useful for efficient sorting lipid domains using microfluidic flows by controlled release of vesicles passing through strong confinement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

High plasticity in refractory composite fabrication by ultrasonic additive manufacturing

Refractory metal composites are desirable for use in extreme environments that require materials with high specific strengths and resilience to external environments such as that found in nuclear and aerospace. However, due to the high melting temperature of refractories, liquid state joining processes such as welding remains difficult. Ultrasonic additive manufacturing (UAM) provides a potential route for processing refractory composites because it is a solid-state (i.e., no-melting) process and allows for intermittent machining operations to be performed between welds. Further, to demonstrate refractory composite fabrication, this study utilized UAM to machine a cavity to locate and sequester a Mo foil in a Zircaloy-4 (Zry-4) baseplate and additively build over the top with Zry-4 foils, thereby embedding the Mo in Zry-4 matrix. Significant deformation of the Zry-4 microstructure was observed: this deformation caused adiabatic heating and subsequent dynamic recrystallization through the transformation from α→β and then back to α as the material cooled. Flexural testing of the Zr–Mo composite revealed no delamination or failure, but the strength was not as expected, falling lower than a cold-worked Zry-4 sample. Finite element analysis supported that some bonding must have existed between the Zry-4 and Mo. There was indeed an interdiffusion zone at the Zry-4 foil–Mo foil interface, observing a metastable body-centered cubic β-Zr lathe. It was determined that sufficient strain energy was present to encourage the nucleation of the β-Zr grain along α-Zr grains. Future work is warranted to investigate UAM for refractory composite fabrication.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Laser-driven ramp-compression experiments on the national ignition facility

This report details the analyses and related uncertainties in measuring longitudinal-stress–density paths in indirect laser-driven ramp equation-of-state (EOS) experiments. Experiments were conducted at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) located at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The NIF can deliver up to 2 MJ of laser energy over 30 ns and provide the necessary laser power and control to ramp compress materials to TPa pressures (1 TPa = 10 × 10 6 atmospheres). These data provide low-temperature solid-state EOS data relevant to the extreme conditions found in the deep interiors of giant planets. In these experiments, multi-stepped samples with thicknesses in the range of 40–120 µm experience an initial shock compression followed by a time-dependent ramp compression to peak pressure. Interface velocity measurements from each thickness combine to place a constraint on the Lagrangian sound speed as a function of particle velocity, which in turn allows for the determination of a continuous stress–density path to high levels of compressibility. In this report, we present a detailed description of the experimental techniques and measurement uncertainties and describe how these uncertainties combine to place a final uncertainty in both stress and density. Here, we address the effects of time-dependent deformation and the sensitivity of ramp EOS techniques to the onset of phase transformations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Achieving ultrahigh modulus of resilience and enhanced thermal stability in ZnO x /SU-8 interpenetrating network polymer nanocomposite nanopillars

The modulus of resilience, a mechanical property that quantifies the maximum strain energy density a material can store during elastic deformation, is a crucial parameter for materials used in flexible displays, micro/nano-electro-mechanical system (M/NEMS) actuators, and ultra-sensitive pressure sensors. In this study, ZnO x /SU-8 nanocomposite nanopillars with a diameter of 300 nm, fully infiltrated with a uniformly distributed, interpenetrating amorphous ZnO x filler network, were synthesized via vapor-phase infiltration (VPI). In-situ uniaxial nano-compression tests revealed that the modulus of resilience of ZnO x /SU-8 reaches ∼ 12 MJ/m 3 , which is an ultrahigh value among all engineering materials with comparable strength. In addition, the synthesis fidelity, inorganic infiltration depth, and mechanical performance were all significantly improved compared to VPI-synthesized AlO x nanocomposites. Thermal stability, another key requirement for M/NEMS device materials operating under extreme environments, was also notably enhanced. Furthermore, partial crystallization of the amorphous ZnO x fillers during annealing contributed to an additional increase in modulus of resilience, reaching up to ∼ 13.9 MJ/m 3 . This work presents an effective fabrication strategy for producing nanostructured organic–inorganic hybrid nanocomposites with ultrahigh modulus of resilience and superior thermal stability, paving the way for their integration into next-generation flexible displays and high-performance M/NEMS devices working under harsh environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global properties of nuclei at finite-temperature within the covariant energy density functional theory

In stellar environments nuclei appear at finite temperatures, becoming extremely hot in core-collapse supernovae and neutron-star mergers. However, due to theoretical and computational complexity, most model calculations of nuclear properties are performed at zero temperature, while those existing at finite temperatures are limited only to selected regions of the nuclide chart. In this study we perform the global calculation of nuclear properties for even-even 8 ≤ Z ≤ 104 nuclei at temperatures in range 0 ≤ T ≤ 2 MeV. Calculations are based on the finite-temperature relativistic Hartree-Bogoliubov model supplemented by the Bonche-Levit-Vautherin vapor subtraction procedure. We find that near the neutron-drip line the continuum states have significant contribution already at moderate temperature T ≈ 1 MeV, thus emphasizing the necessity of the vapor subtraction procedure. Results include neutron emission lifetimes, quadrupole deformations, neutron-skin thickness, proton and neutron pairing gaps, entropy and excitation energy. Up to the temperature T ≈ 1 MeV, the nuclear landscape is influenced only moderately by the finite-temperature effects, mainly by reducing the pairing correlations. Here, as the temperature increases further, the effects on nuclear structures become pronounced, reducing both the deformations and the shell effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Doping Metallic Grain Boundaries to Control Atomic Structure and Damage Tolerance

Grain boundaries often act as sites for crack and void nucleation during plastic deformation of metallic materials. While it is known that grain boundary character and structure can greatly influence this damage nucleation process, the current level of control over such details is limited. The objective of this project was to obtain a fundamental understanding of how metallic grain boundary structure can be controlled through intelligent doping, with the idea of inducing planned amorphous grain boundary phases or complexions. The effect of amorphous complexion structure on dislocation accommodation mechanisms was studied, to improve the field’s understanding of damage nucleation at a promising type of interface. Different microstructural descriptors were studied, as grain boundaries can have large variations and complexity of local structure, and influence the mechanical damage resistance of these features was tested. Nanocrystalline systems that contain amorphous grain boundary complexions were prioritized, as these have more extreme variations in interfacial structure and damage tolerance, with an emphasis on isolating the importance of complexion population (type, thickness, etc.), network topology, local structure, and local chemistry. This research used a combination of computational, experimental, and characterization techniques to isolate and understand the importance of nanoscale grain boundary structure and interfacial chemistry. Amorphous grain boundary complexions were found to clearly increase a material’s resistance to mechanical damage, with the local distribution of structural short-range order within the complexions found to be an important descriptor for damage and the proposed focus of future work in this area.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tuning the spin dynamics and magnetic phase transitions of the Cantor alloy via composition and sample processing protocols: A muon spin relaxation study

CrMnFeCoNi, also called the Cantor alloy, is a well-known high-entropy alloy whose magnetic properties have recently become a focus of attention. Here, we present a detailed muon spin relaxation study of the influence of chemical composition and sample processing protocols on the magnetic phase transitions and spin dynamics of several different Cantor alloy samples. Specific samples studied include a pristine equiatomic sample, samples with deficient and excess Mn content, and equiatomic samples magnetized in a field of 9 T or plastically deformed in pressures up to 0.5 GPa. The results confirm the sensitive dependence of the transition temperature on composition and demonstrate that post-synthesis pressure treatments cause the transition to become significantly less homogeneous throughout the sample volume. In addition, we observe critical spin dynamics in the vicinity of the transition in all samples, reminiscent of canonical spin glasses and magnetic materials with ideal continuous phase transitions. Application of an external magnetic field suppresses the critical dynamics in the Mn-deficient sample, while the equiatomic and Mn-rich samples show more robust critical dynamics. The spin-flip thermal activation energy in the paramagnetic phase increases with Mn content, ranging from 3.1⁢(3) × 10 -21 J for 0% Mn to 1.2⁢(2) × 10 -20 J for 30% Mn content. These results shed light on critical magnetic behavior in environments of extreme chemical disorder and demonstrate the tunability of spin dynamics in the Cantor alloy via chemical composition and sample processing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Atom-in-jellium predictions of the shear modulus at high pressure

Atom-in-jellium calculations of the Einstein frequency in condensed matter and of the equation of state were used to predict the variation of shear modulus from zero pressure to ~10 7 g/cm 3 , for several elements relevant to white dwarf stars and other self-gravitating systems. This is by far the widest range reported electronic structure calculation of shear modulus, spanning from ambient through the one-component plasma to extreme relativistic conditions. The predictions were based on a relationship between the Debye temperature and shear modulus, which we assess to be accurate at the o(10%) level, and is the first known use of atom-in-jellium theory to calculate a shear modulus. Finally, we assessed the overall accuracy of the method by comparing with experimental measurements and more detailed electronic structure calculations at lower pressures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating phase field simulations through a hybrid adaptive Fourier neural operator with U-net backbone

Prolonged contact between a corrosive liquid and metal alloys can cause progressive dealloying. For one such process as liquid-metal dealloying (LMD), phase field models have been developed to understand the mechanisms leading to complex morphologies. However, the LMD governing equations in these models often involve coupled non-linear partial differential equations (PDE), which are challenging to solve numerically. In particular, numerical stiffness in the PDEs requires an extremely refined time step size (on the order of 10 -12 s or smaller). This computational bottleneck is especially problematic when running LMD simulation until a late time horizon is required. This motivates the development of surrogate models capable of leaping forward in time, by skipping several consecutive time steps at-once. In this paper, we propose a U-shaped adaptive Fourier neural operator (U-AFNO), a machine learning (ML) based model inspired by recent advances in neural operator learning. U-AFNO employs U-Nets for extracting and reconstructing local features within the physical fields, and passes the latent space through a vision transformer (ViT) implemented in the Fourier space (AFNO). We use U-AFNOs to learn the dynamics of mapping the field at a current time step into a later time step. We also identify global quantities of interest (QoI) describing the corrosion process (e.g., the deformation of the liquid-metal interface, lost metal, etc.) and show that our proposed U-AFNO model is able to accurately predict the field dynamics, in spite of the chaotic nature of LMD. Most notably, our model reproduces the key microstructure statistics and QoIs with a level of accuracy on par with the high-fidelity numerical solver, while achieving a significant 11, 200 × speed-up on a high-resolution grid when comparing the computational expense per time step. Finally, we also investigate the opportunity of using hybrid simulations, in which we alternate forward leaps in time using the U-AFNO with high-fidelity time stepping. We demonstrate that while advantageous for some surrogate model design choices, our proposed U-AFNO model in fully auto-regressive settings consistently outperforms hybrid schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in Continuous In-Field Critical Current Testing of High-Temperature Superconducting Tapes: Thermal and Mechanical Perspectives

High-temperature superconductors (HTS) are essential for ultra-high-field applications requiring exceptional current-carrying capacity under extreme conditions. However, systematic characterization of critical current in long-length conductors remains challenging due to complex thermal, electromag netic, and mechanical interactions during continuous testing. This study reports the development of a continuous in-field magnetization testing system for position-dependent critical current measurement in HTS tapes at 20 K under 7.5 T fields applied normal to the tape plane, enabling identification of performance-limiting regions that could compromise magnet stability. Here, the system addresses two fundamental challenges inherent to cryogenic reel to-reel testing. First, thermal management requires continuous cooling of a moving conductor to 20 K, achieved through liquid nitrogen precooling combined with a 100 W@20 K Gifford McMahon cryocooler. Second, screening currents in high fields generate Lorentz forces that induce twisting, bowing, and potential delamination. To mitigate these risks, we propose mechanical reinforcement and active current density suppression strategies. Numerical simulations using the stream function formulation reveal four primary failure modes: frictional heating at guide interfaces, unstable equilibria causing deformation, transverse current-induced stresses at guide transitions, and unsupported forces in vertical spans. Our mitigation strategies include PTFE coated guides to minimize friction, spring-loaded stabilization mechanisms to maintain tape alignment, controlled pre-heating using the liquid nitrogen thermal jacket to suppress critical current at stress points, and optimized guide positioning to minimize force accumulation. The experimental system is nearing completion, with testing planned to commence within two months. Preliminary validation at 65 K under 0.5 T demonstrates strong correlation between simulation-predicted mechanical instabilities and observed critical current variations during conductor tran sitions through the measurement region. These findings establish a robust foundation for quality assurance protocols essential to next-generation superconducting magnet applications.

Chen, Siwei [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2022

Femtosecond diffraction and dynamic high pressure science

Solid-state material at high pressure is prevalent throughout the Universe, and an understanding of the structure of matter under such extreme conditions, gleaned from x-ray diffraction, has been pursued for the best part of a century. The highest pressures that can be reached to date (2 TPa) in combination with x-ray diffraction diagnosis have been achieved by dynamic compression via laser ablation. The past decade has witnessed remarkable advances in x-ray technologies, with novel x-ray Free-Electron-Lasers (FELs) affording the capacity to produce high quality single-shot diffraction data on timescales below 100 fs. We provide a brief history of the field of dynamic compression, spanning from when the x-ray sources were almost always laser-plasma based, to the current state-of-the art diffraction capabilities provided by FELs. We give an overview of the physics of dynamic compression, diagnostic techniques, and the importance of understanding how the rate of compression influences the final temperatures reached. We provide illustrative examples of experiments performed on FEL facilities that are starting to give insight into how materials deform at ultrahigh strain rates, their phase diagrams, and the types of states that can be reached. We emphasize that there often appear to be differences in the crystalline phases observed between the use of static and dynamic compression techniques. We give our perspective on both the current state of this rapidly evolving field and some glimpses of how we see it developing in the near-to-medium term.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the viability of a new subsize tensile specimen geometry for evaluation of structural nuclear and additively manufactured materials

The use of subsize specimens in nuclear materials testing has been a subject of ongoing interest due to radiation safety concerns and resource conservation needs. It is also of interest in additive manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D-printing, as subsize specimens can more accurately represent the behavior of the small, intricate geometries often produced using AM. A novel, extremely small geometry, called the Subsize Teeny (SST) was recently developed and is of interest for implementation. Given its extraordinarily small size and the complexities associated with subsize specimen testing, adequate vetting of this geometry is necessary to ensure data quality. Here, a variety of unirradiated nuclear structural materials were tested in the SST geometry and compared against the well-established SSJ3 geometry. In addition, two case studies implementing the SST as a screening geometry for AM materials were also conducted. The question of SST viability was found to be highly nuanced and will often be dependent on the context or application in question. It was determined, however, that the SST is a largely invalid geometry for exceptionally coarse-grained materials or in cases where the physical defect volume equals or exceeds 0.1 % or where the specimen machining parameters result in significant surface alterations. On the other hand, it was determined that the SST may be employed with confidence if the test material is nearly or totally free of physical defects, isotropic, demonstrates homogeneous plastic deformation, and possesses a fine-grained, nearly or totally homogeneous microstructure with at least twelve slip systems.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward engineering lattice structures with the material point method (MPM)

This study examines the potential of two variants of the material point method—the generalized interpolation material point (GIMP) and dual domain material point (DDMP) methods—in developing a robust computational framework for engineering lattice structures under different loading conditions. The study begins with assessing the ability of the two methods in predicting elastic buckling phenomena using column geometries with and without initial geometric imperfections. The results indicate that both methods effectively capture buckling phenomena when initial geometric imperfections are introduced. After this verification step, we create several models of tetrahedral lattice structures with varying strut diameter and orientation and subject them to quasi-static loading. We then validate the numerical results using laboratory test results. The results show that, while both methods accurately predict load–displacement curves in the pre-buckling regime, their predictive capabilities diminish in the post-buckling regime. Through visual comparison between the numerical and experimental deformed shapes, it appears that the discrepancies between model and experimental results are attributed to initial geometric imperfections in the lattices that occurred during 3D printing. We then establish a second set of lattice models where different types of initial geometric imperfections are considered. The results from these models show that imperfections have a negligible influence in the pre-buckling regime but affect the behavior considerably in the post-buckling regime. As a final step in this work, we subject the lattice models to impact loading and employ hypothetical soft and stiff materials. These results show that the lattice stiffness, which depends on material stiffness, strut diameter, and orientation, significantly influences the ability of a lattice structure to resist impact. In particular, we find that a stiffer lattice (i.e., one made with a stiff material and thicker struts) is capable of absorbing more energy than a softer one during impact. Although material nonlinearities, inelasticity, and detailed contact formulations are not considered in this study, the findings obtained herein lay the groundwork for engineering lattice structures under extreme loading conditions through a simulation-driven framework based on particle-based methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multiphase, Multiscale Chemomechanics at Extreme Low Temperatures: Battery Electrodes for Operation in a Wide Temperature Range

Understanding the behavior of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) under extreme conditions, for example, low temperature, is key to broad adoption of LIBs in various application scenarios. LIBs, poor performance at low temperatures is often attributed to the inferior lithium-ion transport in the electrolyte, which has motivated new electrolyte development as well as the battery preheating approach that is popular in electric vehicles. A significant irrevocable capacity loss, however, is not resolved by these measures nor well understood. Herein, multiphase, multiscale chemomechanical behaviors in composite LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 (NMC, x + y + z = 1) cathodes at extremely low temperatures are systematically elucidated. The low-temperature storage of LIBs can result in irreversible structural damage in active electrodes, which can negatively impact the subsequent battery cycling performance at ambient temperature. Furthermore, beside developing electrolytes that have stable performance, designing batteries for use in a wide temperature range also calls for the development of electrode components that are structurally and morphologically robust when the cell is switched between different temperatures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Nuclear Graphite Property Models Accounting for Model Inadequacy and Impacts on Component Performance

Nuclear-grade structural graphite is extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity requires accurate models of graphite's thermomechanical response. This report documents the Bayesian calibration of thermomechanical properties for nuclear-grade graphite and their application to graphite component modeling and simulation using the Grizzly code. As part of this work, uncertainty-quantified models were developed for the elastic modulus, coefficient of thermal expansion, irradiation-induced dimensional change, and irradiation-induced creep for graphite grades IG-110, NBG-18, NBG-17, PCEA, and 2114. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources were combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due to inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data were quantified for three different models. These uncertainty-quantified models, with a model-form correction, were subsequently applied to a coupled-physics simulation of representative graphite components, revealing that the uncertainties have a large impact on the components' deformation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis of Washington State Prospects: Final Report

The Washington State Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis overcomes the exploration challenges posed by dense vegetation, glacial deposits, and extreme precipitation. The geothermal play-fairways we target are locations where heat, permeability, and saturated porosity are present in sufficient volume to provide adequate heat exchange at depths accessible by modern drilling technology. The three study areas lie along the Cascade Range magmatic arc and are near Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, and the Wind River Valley. The seven-year project is divided into three phases. In Phase 1 we build on a previous statewide assessment of geothermal resources and develop an initial modeling approach. The results are a series of favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps for three targeted study areas. Based on these initial results, we collect new geologic and geophysical data to further refine our modeling and reduce exploration uncertainty in Phase 2. We improve the modeling method to handle the new data and update the favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps. We also update the conceptual geothermal resource models. In Phase 3 we validate our modeling approach by drilling two temperature-gradient holes and collecting and analyzing core, image logs, and new geochemistry. Our modeling approach improves on an earlier statewide method through a more-rigorous and detailed assessment of heat and permeability. Permeability potential is assessed through geomechanical modeling of the deformation that can generate and maintain reservoir porosity and permeability. Metrics to inform heat potential include temperature-gradient wells, which are sparse in Washington; proximity of Quaternary volcanic vents and young intrusive rock; spring temperature; and reservoir temperature inferred from geothermometry. We weight the individual components using an expert-guided approach known as the Analytical Hierarchy Process. During Phase 2 we also develop a fluid-filled fracture model, and an infrastructure model that helps to delineate areas which are more favorable for geothermal development based on proximity to transmission lines, elevation, land ownership and use restrictions, and availability of process water. New geologic and geophysical data is collected during Phase 2 in each of our three main study areas. At Mount Baker and north of Mount St. Helens we conduct 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and lidar analysis to better constrain the location and character of surface faults; detailed mapping in the Wind River Valley was completed just prior to the start of this project. Ages of intrusive rocks are determined with 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology, though all of our samples are Miocene or older. We collect ground based gravity observations (a total of 1,580 new stations) in all of our study areas and ground-based magnetic lines (a total of 93 km) at Mount Baker. These data are combined with existing gravity and aeromagnetic data and used to constrain fault locations and geometry. Two to three cross sections are constructed at each study area using the mapped surface geology and forward-modeling of the gravity and magnetic data; these cross sections form the basis for our updated conceptual models. We collect magnetotelluric surveys at Mount Baker and Mount St. Helens and these data are inverted to form a resistivity model from the surface to about 10 km depth; each model shows conductive zones that can be interpreted as upwelling geothermal fluids. At Mount St. Helens we deploy a passive seismic array and use the newly detected events to refine the location of the Saint Helens seismic zone. We also employ ambient-noise tomography to develop a detailed seismic-velocity model for the study area and use this model to help constrain our cross sections and conceptual model. Based on the new data collected during Phase 2—and our updated models—we develop a campaign of temperature-gradient holes and core analysis to validate our modeling in Phase 3. Drill hole MB76-31 is located near Little Park Creek, 11 km west-southwest of the summit of Mount Baker, and is 1,471 ft deep. About 410 ft of core from the lower portion of the hole—and image logs from ~175 ft below ground surface to the bottom—are collected and analyzed. Water samples are collected and processed for geothermometry. Drill hole MSH17-24 is located along upper Schultz Creek, 16 km north-northeast of Mount St. Helens and has core from 470 ft to the bottom at 1,053 ft. We did not collect image logs due to borehole stability concerns, but water samples are collected and analyzed for geothermometry. Repeat temperature-gradient measurements are made at both sites and thermal conductivity is measured from core samples. At MB76-31, the equilibrated temperature gradient of 64°C/km and calculated heat flow of 141–159 mW/m 2 is more than twice the regional average. Detailed mapping and analysis of the core, coupled with correlation to the image logs, indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions of high permeability. Because the site has high favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. At site MSH17-24, the equilibrated temperature gradient of ~15°C/km and calculated heat flow of 41–43 mW/m 2 are similar to regional. Geochemical analysis of the water samples indicates a meteoric source without any geothermal component. Detailed outcrop-based mapping of fault exposures near the drill site and analysis of image logs from nearby boreholes indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions. Because the site has low favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. Together, the two sites provide a reasonably positive validation of the Phase 2 modeling and should encourage future use of this modeling approach.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗