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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), have the potential to minimize some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, as well as associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) wherein SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high-emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels; however, it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming–cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain and fewer very intense events than currently occur. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses, could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intensified Soil Moisture Extremes Decrease Soil Organic Carbon Decomposition: A Mechanistic Modeling Analysis

Earth system models have predicted that there will be more frequent and severe precipitation and drought events in terrestrial ecosystems. Microbially mediated decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) tends to increase as soils wet and decrease as soils dry. However, the long-term SOC change under intensified moisture extremes remains poorly known as it depends on the frequency and intensity of soil drying and wetting. In this study, we explored long-term SOC dynamics under scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles using the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition model, a mechanistic microbial model. The model was parameterized with 11 years of observations from a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest site, showing satisfactory model performance in both model calibration (R 2 = 0.67) and validation (R 2 = 0.69) against heterotrophic respiration. We then used the model to simulate the long-term SOC dynamics under five scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles with different frequencies and severities over a period of 100 years. Results showed that the changes in active microbial biomass C and the corresponding turnover rates of SOC pools were more sensitive to soil drying than soil wetting. As a result, the cumulative soil carbon emission from microbial respiration decreased by 433.7 g C m -2 after the 100-year simulation in the highest frequency and intensity moisture scenario, but was not significantly affected by the lowest frequency and intensity scenario. This study emphasizes the nonlinear response of SOC decomposition to soil moisture changes, which causes decreased decomposition by microbes under drying that is, not compensated by increased decomposition under wetting conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil texture and environmental conditions influence the biogeochemical responses of soils to drought and flooding

Abstract Climate change is intensifying the global water cycle, with increased frequency of drought and flood. Water is an important driver of soil carbon dynamics, and it is crucial to understand how moisture disturbances will affect carbon availability and fluxes in soils. Here we investigate the role of water in substrate-microbe connectivity and soil carbon cycling under extreme moisture conditions. We collected soils from Alaska, Florida, and Washington USA, and incubated them under Drought and Flood conditions. Drought had a stronger effect on soil respiration, pore-water carbon, and microbial community composition than flooding. Soil response was not consistent across sites, and was influenced by site-level pedological and environmental factors. Soil texture and porosity can influence microbial access to substrates through the pore network, driving the chemical response. Further, the microbial communities are adapted to the historic stress conditions at their sites and therefore show site-specific responses to drought and flood.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data for "Soil texture and environmental conditions influence the biogeochemical responses of soils to drought and flooding"

This dataset contains data used for the paper "Soil texture and environmental conditions influence the biogeochemical responses of soils to drought and flooding". The Related References field will be updated with a full citation when available.Climate change is intensifying the global water cycle, with increased frequency of drought and flood. Water is an important driver of soil carbon dynamics, and it is crucial to understand how moisture disturbances will affect carbon availability and fluxes in soils. Here we investigate the role of water in substrate-microbe connectivity and soil carbon cycling under extreme moisture conditions. We collected soils from Alaska, Florida, and Washington USA, and incubated them under Drought and Flood conditions. Drought had a stronger effect on soil respiration, pore-water carbon, and microbial community composition than flooding. Soil response was not consistent across sites, and was influenced by site-level pedological and environmental factors. Soil texture and porosity can influence microbial access to substrates through the pore network, driving the chemical response. Further, the microbial communities are adapted to the historic stress conditions at their sites and therefore show site-specific responses to drought and flood.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv and .txt format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/kaizadp/TES_3Soils_2021 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4792655).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapid remodeling of the soil lipidome in response to a drying-rewetting event

Abstract Background Microbiomes contribute to multiple ecosystem services by transforming organic matter in the soil. Extreme shifts in the environment, such as drying-rewetting cycles during drought, can impact the microbial metabolism of organic matter by altering microbial physiology and function. These physiological responses are mediated in part by lipids that are responsible for regulating interactions between cells and the environment. Despite this critical role in regulating the microbial response to stress, little is known about microbial lipids and metabolites in the soil or how they influence phenotypes that are expressed under drying-rewetting cycles. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a soil incubation experiment to simulate soil drying during a summer drought of an arid grassland, then measured the response of the soil lipidome and metabolome during the first 3 h after wet-up. Results Reduced nutrient access during soil drying incurred a replacement of membrane phospholipids, resulting in a diminished abundance of multiple phosphorus-rich membrane lipids. The hot and dry conditions increased the prevalence of sphingolipids and lipids containing long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, both of which are associated with heat and osmotic stress-mitigating properties in fungi. This novel finding suggests that lipids commonly present in eukaryotes such as fungi may play a significant role in supporting community resilience displayed by arid land soil microbiomes during drought. As early as 10 min after rewetting dry soil, distinct changes were observed in several lipids that had bacterial signatures including a rapid increase in the abundance of glycerophospholipids with saturated and short fatty acid chains, prototypical of bacterial membrane lipids. Polar metabolites including disaccharides, nucleic acids, organic acids, inositols, and amino acids also increased in abundance upon rewetting. This rapid metabolic reactivation and growth after rewetting coincided with an increase in the relative abundance of firmicutes, suggesting that members of this phylum were positively impacted by rewetting. Conclusions Our study revealed specific changes in lipids and metabolites that are indicative of stress adaptation, substrate use, and cellular recovery during soil drying and subsequent rewetting. The drought-induced nutrient limitation was reflected in the lipidome and polar metabolome, both of which rapidly shifted (within hours) upon rewet. Reduced nutrient access in dry soil caused the replacement of glycerophospholipids with phosphorus-free lipids and impeded resource-expensive osmolyte accumulation. Elevated levels of ceramides and lipids with long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids in dry soil suggest that lipids likely play an important role in the drought tolerance of microbial taxa capable of synthesizing these lipids. An increasing abundance of bacterial glycerophospholipids and triacylglycerols with fatty acids typical of bacteria and polar metabolites suggest a metabolic recovery in representative bacteria once the environmental conditions are conducive for growth. These results underscore the importance of the soil lipidome as a robust indicator of microbial community responses, especially at the short time scales of cell-environment reactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tropical understory herbaceous community responds more strongly to hurricane disturbance than to experimental warming

The effects of climate change on tropical forests may have global consequences due to the forests’ high biodiversity and major role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we document the effects of experimental warming on the abundance and composition of a tropical forest floor herbaceous plant community in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. This study was conducted within Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots, which use infrared heaters under free-air, open-field conditions, to warm understory vegetation and soils + 4°C above nearby control plots. Hurricanes Irma and María damaged the heating infrastructure in the second year of warming, therefore, the study included one pretreatment year, one year of warming, and one year of hurricane response with no warming. We measured percent leaf cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, and species richness and diversity within three warmed and three control plots. Results showed that one year of experimental warming did not significantly affect the cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, species richness, or species diversity. In contrast, herbaceous cover increased from 20% to 70%, bare ground decreased from 70% to 6%, and species composition shifted pre to posthurricane. The negligible effects of warming may have been due to the short duration of the warming treatment or an understory that is somewhat resistant to higher temperatures. Our results suggest that climate extremes that are predicted to increase with climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, may cause more abrupt changes in tropical forest understories than longer-term sustained warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonally Dependent Future Changes in the U.S. Midwest Hydroclimate and Extremes

This study investigates the responses of the hydroclimate and extremes in the U.S. Midwest to global warming, based on ensemble projections of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and the multimodel initial-condition large-ensemble simulations. The precipitation response features a seasonally dependent change with increased precipitation in April–May but reduced precipitation in July–August. In this work, the late-spring wetting is attributed to the enhanced low-level moisture-transporting southerlies, which are induced by regional sea level pressure anomalies linked to the poleward shift of the North American westerly jet (NAWJ). The late-summer drying is attributed to the weakened storm track, which is also linked to the poleward NAWJ shift. The seasonally dependent future changes of the Midwest precipitation are analogous to its climatological seasonal progression, which increases over late spring as the NAWJ approaches the Midwest and decreases over late summer as the NAWJ migrates away. In response to the mean precipitation changes, extremely wet late springs (April–May precipitation above the 99th percentile of the historical period) and extremely dry late summers (below the 1st percentile) will occur much more frequently, implying increased late-spring floods and late-summer droughts. Future warming in the Midwest is amplified in late summer due to the reduced precipitation. With amplified background warming and increased occurrence, future late-summer droughts will be more devastating. Our results highlight that, under a time-invariant poleward jet shift, opposite precipitation changes arise before and after the peak rainy month, leading to substantial increases in the subseasonal extremes. The severity of such climate impacts is obscured in projections of the rainy-season mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Daily evapotranspiration changes during heatwaves at 32 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides partitioned evapotranspiration (ET, the combined loss of water from soil and plant surfaces) anomalies during heatwave events—soil evaporation (E) and transpiration (T)—for 268 heatwave events across 32 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites in the contiguous United States from 2019–2021. Using an ensemble of four high-frequency turbulence methods (Flux-variance Similarity, Conditional Eddy Covariance [CEC], CEC with Water-Use Efficiency, and Conditional Eddy Accumulation; see Zahn and Bou-Zeid 2024), half-hourly transpiration-to-evapotranspiration (T/ET) ratios were derived from 20 hertz (Hz, cycles per second) eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water vapor (H₂O) concentrations. The dataset spans six vegetation types including evergreen and deciduous forests, grasslands, cultivated crops, shrublands, and emergent herbaceous wetlands. Data Package Contents: The dataset includes a single CSV (comma-separated values) file containing daily anomalies (deviations from baseline conditions) for transpiration (Delta_T), evaporation (Delta_E), total evapotranspiration (Delta_ET), and T/ET ratio (Delta_T_ET) during each day of identified heatwave events. The file also includes site codes, dates, heatwave event identifiers, and day-of-heatwave indicators. The CSV file can be opened with spreadsheet software (Microsoft Excel, Google Sheets) or programming environments (Python, R, MATLAB). This resource enables researchers to investigate ecosystem-specific responses to thermal extremes, validate land surface model partitioning of ET fluxes, and examine feedbacks between water cycling and surface energy balance during heatwaves. The dataset is particularly valuable for studies linking vegetation hydraulic strategies to climate resilience, as it captures the divergent responses of shallow-rooted versus deep-rooted ecosystems. Potential applications include improving drought early warning systems, informing irrigation management strategies, and advancing our mechanistic understanding of land-atmosphere interactions under extreme heat conditions.

Day of Heatwave↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes

Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.

Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Glen Canyon Generation Loss

Colorado River Basin hydropower generation has faced challenges due to droughts and ecological and social water requirements. Specifically, Glen Canyon hydropower generation fluctuates substantially with recent extreme weather trends. Further, the western grid evolves with higher wind and solar share, and Glen Canyon hydropower's contribution to grid flexibility services is essential. The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) markets and schedules electricity production at GCD, and the loss of this power could have significant financial consequences for the WAPA Colorado River Storage Project's (CRSP) Office because it may need to purchase relatively large amounts of energy to serve its firm electrical obligations. In addition, GCD provides grid reliability services for the WAPA Colorado-Missouri (WACM) balancing authority (BA). Both WAPA and DOE's Water & Power Technology Office (WPTO) are interested in researching how these drier hydrological conditions will impact federal electrical energy production, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) power grid, and the value of hydropower in the face of lower production. We study multiple hydrologic and power grid scenarios to understand the grid impacts of the loss of Glen Canyon generation. The study uses a production cost model, water resources planning models, water-centric grid models, and various data analytic techniques. The study progress presentation discusses the selection of probable CRSP' hydropower scenarios and power grid scenarios to understand the impacts of Glen Canyon generation, which includes technologies that compensate the Glen Canyon energy and ancillary services contributions, transmission availability, and energy local marginal prices at interested grid locations of WAPA operation.

droughts↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures. Here, in this study, we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Madden‐Julian Oscillation on the US Puget Sound Regional Hydroclimate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two major modes of climate variability with global hydroclimate impacts. However, their impacts often depend on the local climate and geography, resulting in large regional differences. In this study, we examined the connection of ENSO and MJO to the hydroclimate conditions and extremes in the Puget Sound (PS) basin located in the US Pacific Northwest coast. The results indicate that ENSO significantly modulates the cold season temperature and temperature-mediated hydrologic processes. El Niño cold seasons feature less snow accumulation and intensified surface runoff, even if the precipitation amount is similar to La Niña cold seasons. Therefore, El Niño causes more snow drought (in the form of compound dry and warm snow drought) and shifts the surface runoff seasonality by reducing runoff in the subsequent warm season. MJO phases 6–7 trigger more extreme precipitation, temperature, snowmelt, and runoff in the PS region at 0–9–day lags, and such connections are robust regardless of how the ENSO signals are removed. Meanwhile, MJO modulates large-scale extreme weather systems (e.g., atmospheric rivers) with significant enhancement during phases 6–7. ENSO impacts have intensified in the 2001–2020 period, whereas MJO impacts showed some phase shift in this period. This study reveals ENSO and MJO phases 6–7 as useful predictors of the PS hydroclimate anomalies/extremes at seasonal and daily scales, respectively. Utilizing these findings holds the potential to improve regional water resources prediction and management.

ENSO↗
DOE OSTI2023

Natural variation in Brachypodium distachyon responses to combined abiotic stresses

SUMMARY The demand for agricultural production is becoming more challenging as climate change increases global temperature and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study examines the phenotypic variation of 149 accessions of Brachypodium distachyon under drought, heat, and the combination of stresses. Heat alone causes the largest amounts of tissue damage while the combination of stresses causes the largest decrease in biomass compared to other treatments. Notably, Bd21‐0, the reference line for B. distachyon , did not have robust growth under stress conditions, especially the heat and combined drought and heat treatments. The climate of origin was significantly associated with B. distachyon responses to the assessed stress conditions. Additionally, a GWAS found loci associated with changes in plant height and the amount of damaged tissue under stress. Some of these SNPs were closely located to genes known to be involved in responses to abiotic stresses and point to potential causative loci in plant stress response. However, SNPs found to be significantly associated with a response to heat or drought individually are not also significantly associated with the combination of stresses. This, with the phenotypic data, suggests that the effects of these abiotic stresses are not simply additive, and the responses to the combined stresses differ from drought and heat alone.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physiological Responses of C4 Perennial Bioenergy Grasses to Climate Change: Causes, Consequences, and Constraints

C 4 perennial bioenergy grasses are an economically and ecologically important group whose responses to climate change will be important to the future bioeconomy. These grasses are highly productive and frequently possess large geographic ranges and broad environmental tolerances, which may contribute to the evolution of ecotypes that differ in physiological acclimation capacity and the evolution of distinct functional strategies. C 4 perennial bioenergy grasses are predicted to thrive under climate change—C 4 photosynthesis likely evolved to enhance photosynthetic efficiency under stressful conditions of low [CO 2 ], high temperature, and drought—although few studies have examined how these species will respond to combined stresses or to extremes of temperature and precipitation. Important targets for C 4 perennial bioenergy production in a changing world, such as sustainability and resilience, can benefit from combining knowledge of C 4 physiology with recent advances in crop improvement, especially genomic selection.

Plant Sciences↗