Verification of the Re-Released ENDF/B VIII.0 Based Thermal Scattering Libraries
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INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT OF DIGITAL I&C SAFETY SYSTEMS FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
Upgrading the existing analog instrumentation and control (I&C) systems to state-of-the-art digital I&C (DI&C) systems provides the foremost means to improve performance and reduce costs for existing light-water reactors (LWRs). However, qualification of digital technologies remains a challenge?especially the issue of software common cause failure (CCF), which has been difficult to address. Existing analyses of CCFs in I&C systems mainly focus on hardware failures. With the application and upgrading of new DI&C systems, software CCFs due to design flaws might become a potential threat to plant safety, considering that most redundancy designs use similar digital platforms or software in their operating and application systems. With complex multi-layer redundancy designs to meet the single failure criterion, these I&C safety systems are of particular concern in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing procedures. In 2019, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway of the U.S. Department of Energy?s (DOE?s) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment for the DI&C (RADIC) process was proposed for this strategy to identify potential key digital-induced failures, implement reliability analyses of related digital safety I&C systems, and evaluate the unanalyzed sequences introduced by these failures (particularly software CCFs) at the plant level. This paper summarizes these RISA efforts in the risk analysis of safety-related DI& systems at Idaho National Laboratory.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Conduct of Operations and Nuclear Criticality Safety Standards
Since the beginning of the nuclear age in 1943, there have been 22 criticality accidents in process facilities worldwide in which fissionable materials were processed by hand for various purposes. Of these 22 process criticality accidents, 16 involved faulty or flawed conduct of operations. Most of these process accidents (17 of 22) occurred before 1970, mostly due to the implementation of formal conduct of operations—such as the use of operating procedures and training—and the use of consensus standards for nuclear criticality safety (NCS). Obviously, the nuclear facilities applied lessons learned from their accident history, and the rate of criticality accidents was significantly reduced as a result. Over the years, it has been emphasized in NCS training courses and other venues in the United States that the consensus standards, such as ASA N6.1-1964, were the key contributors to this reduction in accidents. The formality of operations required to implement and apply the standards at a facility is also a crucial prerequisite that must be sufficiently robust to ensure NCS. This prerequisite is crucial to success fully implement the NCS consensus and other safety standards at a site.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Digital risk analysis in nuclear engineering projects: Designing for safety, performance, reliability, and security
Cyber-informed engineering and security-by-design frameworks are important in promoting the need to identify cybersecurity concerns early in the systems engineering lifecycle so risks from adversarial cyber-attacks can be eliminated or reduced through engineering design practices. In addition to adversarial risk, risk in operational technology systems also includes non-adversarial and unintentional risk from other factors such as human performance errors, environmental conditions, design flaws, and device degradation or failure. This paper introduces a new concept for characterizing digital risk, both adversarial and non-adversarial, and provides the basis for initial research into a novel digital risk analysis approach focused on incorporating attack difficulty into a multi-attribute analysis technique using robust decision-making. This digital risk characterization is also used to frame a discussion on the challenges of competing objectives and competing stakeholder requirements in an integrated energy system project that incorporates a small modular reactor and industrial facility.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Sapphire advanced mitigation process: wet etch to expose sub-surface damage and increase laser damage resistance and mechanical strength
In this study, a novel, to the best of our knowledge, method of wet chemical etching of sapphire workpieces (such as optics, wafers, windows, and cones), called the sapphire advanced mitigation process (or sapphire AMP), has been developed that exposes sub-surface mechanical damage created during the optical fabrication process and significantly enhances the surface laser damage resistance (> 2×) and mechanical strength (up to ~ 2.6×). Sapphire AMP involves first treating the workpiece with a mixture of sulfuric and phosphoric acid ([H 2 SO 4 ]:[H 3 PO 4 ]= 1 : 3) at 220°C, followed with phosphoric acid at 160°C, then with sodium hydroxide base (NaOH) and surfactant at 40°C, and finally with a high-pressure deionized water spray rinse. Sapphire AMP has been demonstrated on both A- and C-plane sapphire workpieces. The mechanism of this etch process involves the reaction of the sapphire (Al 2 O 3 ) surface with sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) forming aluminum sulfate [Al2(SO4)3], which has low solubility. The high phosphoric acid content in the first and second steps of sapphire AMP results in the efficient conversion of Al 2 (SO 4 ) 3 to aluminum phosphate (AlPO 4 ), which is very soluble, greatly reducing reaction product redeposition on the workpiece surface. Sapphire AMP is shown to expose sub-surface mechanical damage on the sapphire surface created during the grinding and polishing processes, whose etched morphology has either isotropic or anisotropic evolution depending on the nature of the initial surface damage. Sapphire AMP was also designed to remove the key known surface, laser absorbing precursors (namely, foreign chemical impurities, the fracture surface layer of preexisting sub-surface damage, and reaction product or foreign species redeposition or precipitation). Static and sliding indention induced surface microfractures on sapphire are shown after sapphire AMP to have a significant decrease in the fast photoluminescence intensity (a known metric for measuring the degree of laser damaging absorbing precursors). In addition, the onset of laser damage (at 351 nm 3 ns) on sapphire AMP treated workpieces was shown to increase in fluence from ~ 4 to >9.5J/cm 2 . Finally, biaxial ball-on-ring mechanical tests on sapphire disks showed an increase in the failure stress from 340 MPa (with pre-existing 28 µm flaws) to ~ 900MPa after sapphire AMP, which is attributed to the blunting of the surface microfractures.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Multiple social platforms reveal actionable signals for software vulnerability awareness: A study of GitHub, Twitter and Reddit
Software vulnerabilities are flaws in computer systems that leave users open to attack. In many cases, these vulnerabilities go unnoticed and remain unresolved in codebases. Thus, awareness of software vulnerabilities among the public is crucial to ensure effective cybersecurity practices, the development of high quality software, and ultimately national security. This awareness can be better understood by studying the spread and evolution of software vulnerability discussions in online communities. This work is the first to evaluate and contrast how discussions about software vulnerabilities spread on three social platforms -- Twitter, GitHub, and Reddit. To lay the groundwork, we showcase a novel fundamental framework for measuring information spread that identifies the spread mechanisms and observables across platforms, the units of information, and the groups of measurements that can be applied to focus on a specific phenomena e.g., information cascades. We then analyze and contrast social network topologies for three example social networks and measure the scale and speed of the spread of discussion of specific vulnerabilities to understand how far and how widely they spread, how many users participate in discussions, and the duration of their spread. To demonstrate the awareness of more impactful software vulnerabilities, a subset of our analysis focuses on vulnerabilities targeted during recent major cyber attacks as well as vulnerabilities exploited by advanced persistent threat groups. We discover that usually, vulnerability discussions start on GitHub, before occurring on Twitter and Reddit. While studying how some user-level and content-level characteristics influence vulnerability spread, we observe that Twitter discussions started by users predicted to be humans have larger size, breadth, depth, adoption rate, lifetime, and structural virality compared to those started by users predicted to be bots. On Reddit, we contrast the differences in thread structure that originate from posts with positive, negative and neutral polarity. We find that posts that are positive have larger, deeper and wider discussions compared to negative and neutral posts. We anticipate the results of our analysis to not only increase the understanding of software vulnerability awareness but also inform models for simulating information spread across multiple social environments online.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
MultiGreen: A multiplexing architecture for GreenGate cloning
Genetic modification of plants fundamentally relies upon customized vector designs. The ever-increasing complexity of transgenic constructs has led to increased adoption of modular cloning systems for their ease of use, cost effectiveness, and rapid prototyping. GreenGate is a modular cloning system catered specifically to designing bespoke, single transcriptional unit vectors for plant transformation—which is also its greatest flaw. MultiGreen seeks to address GreenGate’s limitations while maintaining the syntax of the original GreenGate kit. The primary limitations MultiGreen addresses are 1) multiplexing in series, 2) multiplexing in parallel, and 3) repeated cycling of transcriptional unit assembly through binary intermediates. MultiGreen efficiently concatenates bespoke transcriptional units using an additional suite of level 1acceptor vectors which serve as an assembly point for individual transcriptional units prior to final, level 2, condensation of multiple transcriptional units. Assembly with MultiGreen level 1 vectors scales at a maximal rate of 2*⌈ log 6 n ⌉+3 days per assembly, where n represents the number of transcriptional units. Further, MultiGreen level 1 acceptor vectors are binary vectors and can be used directly for plant transformation to further maximize prototyping speed. MultiGreen is a 1:1 expansion of the original GreenGate architecture’s grammar and has been demonstrated to efficiently assemble plasmids with multiple transcriptional units. MultiGreen has been validated by using a truncated violacein operon from Chromobacterium violaceum in bacteria and by deconstructing the RUBY reporter for in planta functional validation. MultiGreen currently supports many of our in-house multi transcriptional unit assemblies and will be a valuable strategy for more complex cloning projects.
Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
Mechanism of Microseismic Generation During Hydraulic Fracturing - With Evidence From HFTS 2 Observations
The objective of this study is to understand how microseismic events are generated during hydraulic fracturing, as well as the role of geomechanical conditions (i.e., stress and mechanical stratigraphy) in this process. In the industry, microseismic event clouds have been generally used as an “outer-boundary” of the “stimulated reservoir volume” (SRV). However, by comparing with other surveillance data (Low frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing, or LF-DAS strain) in the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) 2 experiment, we show that this assumption is fundamentally flawed. The HFTS 2 data has three unique observations that have not been commonly observed in other datasets: 1. Due to influence of offset pad depletion, microseismic data shows that hydraulic fractures from the child well can propagate over 3000 feet into the depleted low stress zone. 2. By comparing microseismic and horizontal fiber LF-DAS strain data, we observe that microseismic event cloud does not necessarily reflect the created hydraulic fracture volume. Particularly, the extent of microseismic event clouds near heel stages are much shorter than what is shown with LF-DAS strain data. 3. Microseismic event magnitudes are larger in the depleted regions. Through geomechanical analysis, we demonstrate that the “bedding-plane-slip” model is likely the mechanism for microseismic generation during hydraulic fracturing. Furthermore, this model successfully explains the above field observations from HFTS 2 experiment. We also provide a quantitative relationship connecting the microseismic event magnitude with fracture width increment and layer mechanical property contrast.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Resilient and flexible biopharmaceutical supply networks: strengthening the vaccine supply chain through a manufacturing supply chain data exchange
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed important flaws in the inbound supply chain for vaccines. NIIMBL and CESMII are working with key stakeholders to develop a means for vaccine manufacturers and suppliers to share information securely for improved supply chain tracking, resilience, and optimization.
Dyck↗
Experimental Investigation of Low-Frequency Distributed Acoustic Strain-Rate Responses to Propagating Fractures
Summary Low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing (LF-DAS) responds to strain changes due to far-field fracture propagation. To better understand the LF-DAS response to fracture propagation, we performed laboratory-scale hydraulic fracture experiments with embedded optical strain sensors. The objectives of this research are to generate hydraulic fractures of known geometry, measure the strain response along the embedded fiber-optic cable comparable to LF-DAS measurements, and use the results to inform the interpretation of field-derived LF-DAS data. The experiments were conducted in unconfined transparent cubic blocks with a dimension of 8 in. on each side. The block was made of transparent epoxy to visualize the fracture propagation. Fiber-optic sensing cables were embedded in the block at different distances to the source of injection. We injected dyed water through an injection tubing to generate a transverse, radial fracture along an initial flaw. An optical interrogator recorded the response of offset fiber Bragg grating (FBG) strain sensors normal to the plane of the fracture. The strain data were visualized on a waterfall plot, akin to visualizations of field-derived LF-DAS data. Dimensional analysis was used to scale the laboratory results to field conditions. We compared the evolution of the strain response at the fiber-optic cable, injection pressure, and rate with known fracture geometry. The measured strains were compared with Sneddon’s (1946) linear elastic solution for a penny-shaped crack and found to follow this behavior. The generated radial fractures in transparent media can be modeled with Sneddon’s linear elastic radial fracture model and a Mode I critical stress intensity factor. The LF-DAS characteristic response of a narrowing region of extension surrounded by compression was exhibited as a fracture that approached and intersected the fiber-optic cable. The experimentally derived strain and strain-rate waterfall plots with known fracture geometry, injection rate, and pressure response provide insight in understanding LF-DAS responses in the field. Furthermore, we developed a method to estimate fracture geometry evolution from the fiber-optic strain data and validated the method against the experimental data.
Engineering↗
Interpretation of HFTS 2 Microseismic Data Using Bedding-Plane-Slip Mechanism
Summary The objective of this study is to understand how microseismic events are generated during hydraulic fracturing, as well as the role of geomechanical conditions (i.e., stress and mechanical stratigraphy) in this process. In the industry, microseismic event clouds have been generally used as an “outer boundary” of the “stimulated reservoir volume” (SRV). However, by comparing with other surveillance data (low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing, or LF-DAS, strain) in the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) 2 experiment, we show that this assumption is fundamentally flawed. The HFTS 2 data have three unique observations that have not been commonly observed in other datasets: (1) Due to the influence of offset pad depletion, microseismic data show that hydraulic fractures from the child well can propagate over 3,000 ft into the depleted low-stress zone. (2) By comparing microseismic and horizontal fiber LF-DAS strain data, we observe that the microseismic event cloud does not necessarily reflect the created hydraulic fracture volume. Particularly, the extent of microseismic event clouds near heel stages is much shorter than what is shown with LF-DAS strain data. (3) Microseismic event magnitudes are larger in the depleted regions. Through geomechanical analysis, we demonstrate that the “bedding-plane-slip” model is likely the mechanism for microseismic generation during hydraulic fracturing. This model successfully explains the above field observations from the HFTS 2 experiment. We also provide a quantitative relationship connecting the microseismic event magnitude with fracture width increment and layer mechanical property contrast.
Engineering↗
Large Area Airborne Contamination Monitoring
Current D&D operations at Hanford have demonstrated a flaw in the current state of the art capability of defining airborne contamination boundaries. Airborne particulate emissions of Pu-239 from CM2H operations on the Hanford Pu Finishing Plant were detected well beyond areas controlled for airborne plutonium, putting numerous workers at risk for radiological assimilations. Forty-two Hanford workers had positive bioassay results for plutonium uptake. Work areas determined to be free of airborne contamination as measured by state-of-the-art continuous alpha monitoring (CAM) systems were later discovered not to be. Airborne contamination was scattered to a such degree that CAM systems were surveying insufficient volumes of air to accurately predict where respiratory protection was required. A $\$ 19,000$ state of the art portable CAM system used at both Hanford and at SRS screens air for alpha activity at the rate of 1 CFM. This research project will explore the feasibility of using commercially available air purifying systems to screen significantly larger volumes of air for airborne actinide contamination. Commercial household HEPA based air purifying units screen large volumes of air, a simple $\$ 300$ unit being looked at for this study could screen a volume of air that would require over 300 of the $\$ 19,000$ CAMs. The goal of the project was to determine the feasibility of building a detection system capable of screening the air purifiers pre-filters and HEPA filters for any actinide bearing hot particles that have been captured. The simplest technologies available to Field-Radiological-Protection personnel are hand-held alpha field survey meters. With the size and the corrugated structure of these HEPA filters, hand screening is not practical. This project researched alternatives capable of automating this function. Two potential technologies were examined. One technology evaluated was the measurement of xray emissions from the actinides, taking advantage of the higher emission rates of the L x-rays compared to the gamma emissions of isotopes such as Pu-238 or Pu-239. High resolution to low resolution systems were evaluated. Branching ratio data on the actinides in the literature is incomplete, and a study was initiated to measure branching ratios of the various L emissions of a number of the plutonium isotopes. A Monte Carlo simulation was also run to calculate the effect the attenuating HEPA media would have on x-ray measurements on spectrometers centered in each quadrant above the surface of the HEPA. The second technology evaluated was measuring the light from a scintillating media applied to the surface of the HEPA filter using a ThorLabs Scientific-Grade Digital Camera Model 8051M. A light tight enclosure capable of holding the 2’x2’x1” HEPA filter was fabricated. Numerous scintillation media were evaluated for both the sensitivity and for resolution of measuring alpha activity. Figure 1 shows images of a 4”x4” section of HEPA filter with a 3 x 3 grid of Pu-238 contamination loaded inside the crevices of the HEPA.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Efficient Binary Static Code Data Flow Analysis Using Unsupervised Learning
The ever increasing need to ensure that code is reliably, efficiently and safely constructed has fueled the evolution of popular static binary code analysis tools. In identifying potential coding flaws in binaries, tools such as IDA Pro are used to disassemble the binaries into an opcode/assembly language format in support of manual static code analysis. Because of the highly manual and resource intensive nature involved with analyzing large binaries, the probability of overlooking potential coding irregularities and inefficiencies is quite high. In this paper, a light-weight data, unsupervised data flow methodology is described which uses highly-correlated data flow graph (CDFGs) to identify coding irregularities such that analysis time and required computing resources are minimized. Such analysis accuracy and efficiency gains are achieved by using a combination of graph analysis and unsupervised machine learning techniques which allows an analyst to focus on the most statistically significant flow patterns while performing binary static code analysis.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
COVID-19 biomarkers based on respiratory microbiome content
COVID-19 patient care management would greatly benefit from new tools that enable accurate assessment of disease severity and stage, potentially enabling a personalized medicine approach. Detection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself, or even quantitation of viral loads, is not sufficient for accurate assessment of disease state beyond diagnosis of infection [eg, doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa344]. Levels of usual suspect protein biomarkers associated with host response to infection [eg, C-reactive protein (CRP); cytokines like IL-6, TNF-alpha, and IL-10; complement proteins like C3a and C5a], and of individual blood cell types (eg, leukocytes, lymphocytes, and subsets thereof), show limited correlation with disease severity and stage, with high patient-to-patient and study-to-study variability [eg, doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa248]. High-dimensional panels of biomarkers should have greater predictive power and resilience to unavoidable sources of variability; however, their assembly from proteins and cell types is extremely difficult, due to technical limitations in analyte measurement, especially with regard to starting material requirements and detection sensitivity. Host response profiling through Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) of gene expression patterns (ie, RNA-Seq) is a promising approach, but at the time of this project there were only two publicly available datasets of relevance [doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa203, doi:10.1080/22221751.2020.1747363], and close inspection of them revealed that each had at least one major flaw that severely undermined its value in supporting robust analysis of host response to SARS-CoV- 2 infection. However, the first of these studies [doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa203] fortuitously collected NGS data not only from host cells, but also from bacteria present in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) recovered from COVID-19 patients; and because the respiratory microbiome (in terms of bacterial species content) is far less complex than the human transcriptome, the NGS data collected were sufficient to provide coverage depth supporting robust analysis. Surprisingly, the authors of the study did not carry out a detailed analysis of these data and their potential for revealing important new information about COVID-19. Therefore, we carried out a meta-analysis of the dataset as a first step in evaluating the potential for profiling of respiratory microbiome dynamics as a means of accurately assessing COVID-19 disease state.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
RAMSeS: Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems
Over the past few decades, software has become ubiquitous as it has been integrated into nearly every aspect of society, including household appliances, consumer electronics, industrial control systems, public utilities, government operations, and military systems. Consequently, many critical national security questions can no longer be answered convincingly without understanding software, including its purpose, its capabilities, its flaws, its communication, or how it processes and stores data. As software continues to become larger, more complex, and more widespread, our ability to answer important mission questions and reason about software in a timely way is falling behind. Today, to achieve such understanding of third-party software, we rely predominantly on the ability of reverse engineering experts to manually answer each particular mission question for every software system of interest. This approach often requires heroic human effort that nevertheless fails to meet current mission needs and will never scale to meet future needs. The result is an emerging crisis: a massive and expanding gap between the national security need to answer mission questions about software and our ability to do so. Sandia National Laboratories has established the Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems (RAMSeS) effort, a collaborative long-term effort aimed at dramatically improving our nation’s ability to answer mission questions about third-party software by growing an ecosystem of tools that augment the human reverse engineer through automation, interoperability, and reuse. Focusing on static analysis of binary programs, we are attempting to identify reusable software analysis components that advance our ability to reason about software, to automate useful aspects of the software analysis process, and to integrate new methodologies and capabilities into a working ecosystem of tools and experts. We aim to integrate existing tools where possible, adapt tools when modest modifications will enable them to interoperate, and implement missing capability when necessary. Although we do hope to automate a growing set of analysis tasks, we will approach this goal incrementally by assisting the human in an ever-widening range of tasks.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Model-Based Ultrasonic Signal Processing for the Nondestructive Evaluation of Additive Manufacturing Components
Ultrasonic testing (UT) for nondestructive evaluation (NDE) is a critical entity necessary to resolve both the quality and precision questions of complex parts evolving from the innovative additive manufacturing (AM) process. This modality provides the essential quantitative information for acceptance and potential flaw detectionof the part under investigation. A primary ingredient in UT besides the required precision robotic hardware for theacquisition of high quality measurement data is the underlying signal processing. It is here that much of the system performance capability resides. In this report,we discuss the basic steps in UT signal processing along with current and future capabilities that must be achieved in order to satisfy the critical demands created by the AM process.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Time-of-Flight Estimation for Nondestructive Evaluation
Ultrasonic testing (UT) for nondestructive evaluation (NDE) is a critical entity necessary to resolve both the quality and precision questions of complex parts evolving from the classical approaches to the innovative additive manufacturing (AM) process. This modality provides the essential quantitative information for acceptance and potential flaw detectionof apart under investigation. A primary ingredient in UT besides the required precision robotic hardware for theacquisition of high-qualitymeasurement data is the underlying signal processing. It is here that much of the system performance capability resides. In this report,we discuss the basic steps in UT signal processing along with current capabilities that must be achieved in order to satisfy the criticaldemands of the various LLNL programs.In itsbasic foundations, signal processing is essentially the “extraction of critical information (signals) from noisy, uncertain data.” Clearly, in a perfect world the best signal processing is none---just make a reliable, noise-free, uncertainty-free, measurement. Unfortunately, even the best of systems is still straddled within the confines and limitations of physical instrumentation. With this in mind, we discuss the development of signal processing techniques toextract the desired UT information from noisy measurement data. We start with a discussion of a simple homogeneous representation of a “part” under investigation and its insonification by an ultrasonicexcitation from a physics-based perspective. Once developed, we briefly discussthe various choices of excitation signals and their tradeoffs.Next,we discuss a simulation approach employing simple models from the signal processing perspective and then move on to the development of the basic signal processing approach to ultrasonic signal processing all based on estimating the pulse arrival estimation. Starting with simple peak detection techniques, progressing to the processing workhorse so-called “matched-filter” and finally to the more sophisticated “model-based matched filter.”The underlying pre-and post-processing of noisy measurement data along with the application of these techniques are subsequently demonstrated on experimental ultrasonic data.Finally, we present some results for processing “weld” data when the ultrasonic excitation signal is not directly available.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Technical Issues in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Ratification Debate: A 20 Year Retrospective
Two decades after the U.S. Senate declined in 1999 to give its consent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty remains in legal and political limbo. Legally, the treaty cannot enter into force without U.S. ratification. However, the Senate’s rejection does not strip the treaty of its force as an element of customary international law or alter the will of other signatories to see it enter into force. Politically, the debate over the virtues and flaws of the treaty remains as strong as ever, with some CTBT advocates pushing energetically for U.S. re-review while some opponents seek ways to “un-sign” the treaty. Meanwhile, despite the Senate’s rejection of the treaty, the United States acts in a manner consistent with its main obligations by maintaining a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing and providing financial support (as well as technical expertise) to the CTBT Organization (CTBTO)—in particular the CTBTO’s International Monitoring System (IMS). The CTBT may well remain in such limbo for a long time to come, unless some catalytic event comes along to re-shape national perceptions and priorities, one way or the other. The treaty’s future, whatever it might be, will be determined in part by how much perspectives might have changed in light of interim developments. Our purpose is to shed light on some of those developments and to assess their relevance. The 1999 ratification debate addressed a large number of issues. Rejection was driven by various policy and technical judgments. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine those technical judgments in light of what has been learned over the following two decades. On some technical matters, there was explicit recognition of extant uncertainties, as well as a conviction and hope that time would dispel them. To be doubly clear, our purpose is not to recommend a way forward on CTBT ratification. The policy judgments of 1999 and 2020 are beyond the scope of this paper. This technical re-examination proceeds as follows. It begins with a short background section to introduce the key technical matters in discussion in the U.S. ratification process. Then it moves systematically through each of those topics with a review of relevant background information, a discussion of key points in debate, an analysis of subsequent experience, and a current assessment. The historical analysis draws on many sources including the primary documents of the Congressional debate, the official article-by-article interpretation by the Department of State, and the statements of key players in the process. We also relied on key technical reports and publications by subject matter experts that have addressed in more detail many of the issues in our focus. These sources include the 2002 and 2012 reports of the National Academy of Sciences as well as publications by senior technical staff of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) who were actively involved in the ratification debate, including then-Laboratory Director Bruce Tarter. We also conducted several interviews with government officials from the 1990s, past laboratory directors, and other members of the scientific community. But, except where individuals are specifically cited by name, the judgments offered here are our own and should not be attributed to any other individual or to LLNL as such.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗