Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “flood model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

SERVIR-Africa: Developing an Integrated Platform for Floods Disaster Management in Africa

SERVIR-Africa is an ambitious regional visualization and monitoring system that integrates remotely sensed data with predictive models and field-based data to monitor ecological processes and respond to natural disasters. It aims addressing societal benefits including floods and turning data into actionable information for decision-makers. Floods are exogenous disasters that affect many parts of Africa, probably second only to drought in terms of social-economic losses. This paper looks at SERVIR-Africa's approach to floods disaster management through establishment of an integrated platform, floods prediction models, post-event flood mapping and monitoring as well as flood maps dissemination in support of flood disaster management.

Macharia, Daniel↗

Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

Zhang, Xiaodong↗

Constraints on continental accretion from sedimentation

Heat loss in the ancient Earth was discussed assuming that classical sea floor spreading was the only mechanism. This may be expressed as faster spreading or longer total ridge length. These have important implications as to the size and number of cratonic plates in the distant past, the degree to which they are flooded, the kinds of sediments and volcanics that would be expected, and the amount of recycling of continental material taking place. The higher proportion of marine sedimentary rocks and oceanic volcanics in the Archean, and the relative paucity of evaporites and continental volcanics may in part be due to smaller cratonic blocks. A model was developed of the percentage of continental flooding which utilizes round continents and a constant width of the zone of flooding. This model produces a reasonable good fit to the percentage of flooding on the present day continents.

Abbott, Dallas↗

Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗

Modeling and Observations of Outlet Canyons from Lake Overflow Floods on Early Mars

Numerous observations from both orbital remote sensing [1-3] and Mars Curiosity [4] suggest that lakes were once part of the martian landscape. From orbital data, one of the key lines of evidence for past paleolakes is the existence of several hundred valley network-fed basins – usually craters – that have outlet valleys that remain perched above their floors. The existence of outlets requires that water ponded to the point that it overflowed confining topography. Beyond recognizing these landforms, there has been only limited work reconstructing the morphometry, formative hydrology, and incision history for these outlets. Here, we describe our recently published observations of outlets and ongoing numerical modeling looking at these factors.

Fassett, Caleb I.↗

Land-use analysis using infrastructure representations and high-resolution flood inundation mapping techniques

In the face of climate change and population growth in coastal regions, land-use analysis efforts are more challenging than ever. Land-use decision-makers in coastal communities are burdened with the difficult choices of where to place new homes versus other assets. While there has been an increased focus on hazard mitigation and disaster resilience in the field of planning, evidence points towards continued development in risk-prone areas including flood zones. Residential development within flood zones specifically continues to be a major issue. To help counter this trend, this study introduces a novel land-use analysis method, coupling topographic flood inundation mapping techniques with digital elevation model (DEM) adaptations. This Topographic Model Scenario Generation workflow can be used by planners early in the land-use decision making process and provides an alternative to high-computational hydraulic models. The analysis also includes the identification of strengths and weaknesses of topographic models' recognition of built infrastructure assets, adding to a limited body of knowledge addressing recommended uses of such models. Levees and canals prove particularly functional in this context while detention ponds less so, likely due to a lack of total water mass accountability. Lastly, we provide a functional demonstration in Southeast Texas to illustrate the workflow's ability to create multiple infrastructure scenarios and visualize their effects across different flood events.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Determining the Optimum Post Spacing of LIDAR-Derived Elevation Data in Varying Terrain for Flood Hazard Mapping Purposes in North Carolina and Texas

The major flood events in the United States in the past few years have made it apparent that many floodplain maps being used by State governments are outdated and inaccurate. In response, many Stated have begun to update their Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps. Accurate topographic data is one of the most critical inputs for floodplain analysis and delineation. Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) altimetry is one of the primary remote sensing technologies that can be used to obtain high-resolution and high-accuracy digital elevation data suitable for hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) modeling, in part because of its ability to "penetrate" various cover types and to record geospatial data from the Earth's surface. However, the posting density or spacing at which LIDAR collects the data will affect the resulting accuracies of the derived bare Earth surface, depending on terrain type and land cover type. For example, flat areas are thought to require higher or denser postings than hilly areas to capture subtle changes in the topography that could have a significant effect on flooding extent. Likewise, if an area has dense understory and overstory, it may be difficult to receive LIDAR returns from the Earth's surface, which would affect the accuracy of that bare Earth surface and thus would affect flood model results. For these reasons, NASA and FEMA have partnered with the State of North Carolina and with the U.S./Mexico Foundation in Texas to assess the effect of LIDAR point density on the characterization of topographic variation and on H&H modeling results for improved floodplain mapping. Research for this project is being conducted in two areas of North Carolina and in the City of Brownsville, Texas, each with a different type of terrain and varying land cover/land use. Because of various project constraints, LIDAR data were acquired once at a high posting density and then decimated to coarser postings or densities. Quality assurance/quality control analyses were performed on each dataset. Cross sections extracted form the high density and then the decimated datasets were individually input into an H&H model to determine the model's sensitivity to topographic variation and the effect of that variation on the resulting water profiles. Additional analysis was performed on the Brownsville, Texas, LIDAR data to determine the percentage of returns that "penetrated" various types of canopy or vegetative cover. It is hoped that the results of these studies will benefit state and local communities as they consider the post spacing at which to acquire LIDAR data (which affects cost) and will benefit FEMA as the Agency assesses the use of different technologies for updating National Flood Insurance Program and related products.

Berglund, Judith↗

Manual versus digital Landsat analysis for delineating river flooding

It has been found that flood boundary information derived from Landsat images, acquired at different flood stages, could be used to develop an empirical model for estimating the extent of flooding on the basis of in situ measurements of river discharge. An investigation was undertaken to determine whether improved results might have been obtained through digital image analysis or by including other Landsat spectral bands. The study area encompasses a highly flood-prone reach of the Black River in Lewis County, NY. It was found that visual analysis of aerial photographs and a Landsat band 7 image gave similar results. Visual and digital analysis of Landsat band 7 data gave similar results, and digital analysis of Landsat band 7 data gave results which were at least as good as digital analysis of combinations of spectral bands.

Philipson, W. R.↗

Modeling Planar Electrodes and Zero–Gap Membrane Electrode Assemblies for CO 2 Electrolysis

Multiphysics modeling enables probing of conditions inside a CO 2 electrolyzer that are difficult to measure, such as local concentrations and pH, as well as rapid testing of possible design changes. A one-dimensional model for a zero-gap membrane electrode assembly (MEA) CO 2 electrolyzer was developed with the assumption that catalyst layers interact with the membrane ionomer such that the ionomer affects the underlying kinetics. The kinetics for bicarbonate reacting to form hydrogen are fit using a planar electrode model for silver with an ionomer coating. The MEA model results are validated against experimental studies for current density and product selectivity. Flooding of the cathode is modeled using saturation curves, and results show that blocked pores in the microporous layer play a significant role in limiting the mass transport at high potentials (>2.8 V). Sensitivity studies showed that CO Faradaic efficiency can be increased by decreasing catalyst layer thickness and porosity, and decreasing KHCO 3 concentration.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Use of Remote Sensing Products for the SERVIR Project

The United Nations University (UNU) estimates that floods presently impacts greater than 520 million people per year worldwide, resulting in up to 25,000 annual deaths, extensive homelessness, disaster-induced disease, crop and livestock damage, famine, and other serious harm. Meanwhile, aid agencies such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) are increasingly seeking better information concerning flood hazards in order to plan for and help mitigate the effects of damaging floods. There is fertile ground to continue development of better remote sensing and modeling techniques to help manage flood related disasters. Disaster management and humanitarian aid organizations need accurate and timely information for making decisions regarding deployment of relief teams and emergency supplies during major floods. Flood maps based on the use of satellite data have proven extremely valuable to such organizations for identifying the location, extent, and severity of these events. However, despite extraordinary efforts on the part of remote sensing data providers to rapidly deliver such maps, there is typically a delay of several days or even weeks from the on-set of flooding until such maps are available to the disaster management community. This paper summarizes efforts at NASA to address this problem through development of an integrated and automated process of a) flood forecasting b) flood detection, c) satellite data acquisition, d) rapid flood mapping and distribution, and e) validation of flood forecasting and detection products.

Policelli, Frederick S.↗

Characterizing the Non-linear Interactions Between Tide, Storm Surge, and River Flow in the Delaware Bay Estuary, United States

Low-lying coastal areas in the mid-Atlantic region are prone to compound flooding resulting from the co-occurrence of river floods and coastal storm surges. To better understand the contribution of non-linear tide-surge-river interactions to compound flooding, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was applied to simulate coastal storm surge and flooding in the Delaware Bay Estuary in the United States. The model was validated with tide gauge data in the estuary for selected hurricane events. Non-linear interactions between tide-surge-river were investigated using a non-stationary tidal analysis method, which decomposes the interactions’ components at the frequency domain. Model results indicated that tide-river interactions damped semidiurnal tides, while the tide-surge interactions mainly influenced diurnal tides. Tide-river interactions suppressed the water level upstream while tide-surge interaction increased the water level downstream, which resulted in a transition zone of damping and enhancing effects where the tide-surge-river interaction was prominent. Evident compound flooding was observed as a result of non-linear tide-surge-river interactions. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of river flooding on the non-linear interactions. The transition zone of damping and enhancing effects shifted downstream as the river flow rate increased.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale for post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of fire impacts on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify wildfire impacts on runoff generation. We consider the vegetation and soil disturbances as the primary contributors to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty and consider model sensitivity, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We evaluated the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration. Analysis of two events in central California shows that 1) the LAI assimilation has a greater impact on water balance; and 2) the soil scheme captures a range of outcomes, with substantial impacts on surface runoff for some ensemble members, which could affect flood potential.

Timothy M Lahmers↗

Risk Considerations of Transitioning CO2-EOR Field to CO2 storage Field: Case Study

In the United States (U.S.), carbon dioxide (CO2) injection wells at EOR sites are currently regulated as Class II wells under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) program while dedicated geological CO2 storage (GCS) wells are considered Class VI wells. A CO2-EOR facility considering a transitioning from tertiary oil recovery to injecting CO2 for the primary purpose of long-term storage is required to obtain a Class VI permit where this transition poses an increased risk to underground sources of drinking water. This study considers how transitioning operations from CO2-EOR to storage can impact reservoir plume and pressure transient in the storage envelope, and how these changes could impact area of review and potential unwanted fluid migration. We developed a case study to assess subsurface response and leakage risks associated with a representative, hypothetical operation in a carbonate reservoir. This reservoir transitions from tertiary hydrocarbon recovery to dedicated GCS. Reservoir simulations were run for a set of credible CO2-EOR scenarios to estimate distributions of fluids phases and pressures throughout the model domain after CO2 flooding as well as forecasting the behavior of the reservoir after the transition to a dedicated storage phase. The evolutions from all simulated scenarios were used as the basis for leakage risk quantification using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) with a novel reduced-order model to estimate time-dependent leakage of CO2, brine, and hydrocarbon fluids through potentially leaky wells. Results include a description of reservoir response, an estimate of the areal extent that could potentially be impacted by leakage to underground sources of drinking water, and estimates of the magnitude of potential leakage. Considerations for dedicated storage injection well selection, injectivity, and injection scheme performance and potential leakage risk are presented, with implications for risk assessment of well transition discussed. This study presents a risk-based workflow for the Class II to Class VI well transition. Integrating credible numerical simulation of viable CO2-EOR to dedicated CO2 storage with quantitative risk assessment tools, such as the NRAP-Open-IAM, will provide a valuable means to devise operational scenarios and inform decision-making related to storage benefit, leakage risk, and liability. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.

Liu, Guoxiang↗

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale of post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of the impacts of fire on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify the impacts of wildfire on runoff generation. We consider the disturbances in the vegetation and soil as the two main factors contributing to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We consider the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration for two case studies. These case studies demonstrate the general applicability of hydrophobicity formulation to serve as a guideline for exploring the range of hydrologic responses post-fire.

Fire Hydrology↗

A Scale‐Adaptive Urban Hydrologic Framework: Incorporating Network‐Level Storm Drainage Pipes Representation

Abstract Below‐ground urban stormwater networks (BUSNs) significantly influence urban flood dynamics, yet their representation at the watershed or larger scales remains challenging. We introduce a scalable urban hydrologic framework that centers on a novel network‐level BUSN representation, balancing the needs for physical basis, parameter parsimony, and computational efficiency. Our framework conceptualizes an urban watershed into four interacting zones: hillslopes (natural), storm‐sewersheds (urban), a sub‐network channel (tributaries), and a main channel. We develop an innovative Graph Theory‐based algorithm to derive network‐level BUSN parameters from publicly available datasets, enabling efficient, scalable parameterization. We demonstrate this framework's applicability at nine representative watersheds in the Houston metropolitan region, USA, with urban imperviousness ranging from 0% to 64% and drainage areas ranging from 24 to 302 . Our model achieves satisfying computational efficiency, completing hourly time step simulations for 18 years in less than 5 sec per watershed on a standard PC. Validation against observed daily streamflow confirms that the model can capture small‐to‐large flood peaks and seasonal and annual water balance over these watersheds. Comparisons with the National Water Model show better performance in predicting flood peaks and overall water balance, underscoring the promises of our new framework for urban hydrologic modeling at large scales. Furthermore, analysis reveals nonlinear relationships between BUSNs' designed capacities and flood reduction effects. Our approach bridges the gap between detailed hydraulic and large‐scale hydrologic models, providing a valuable tool for urban flood prediction and management across broader spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗