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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Upper air forecasting for aviation in the United States

It is shown that the present forecast models used in the aviation digital forecast (ADF) product for automated flight planning in the U.S. did not improve in accuracy and precision over the past two decades. A new approach to the upper air forecasting is presented in the NASA/NOAA MERIT project. In MERIT, a concept of a tailored analysis is used, based on a high density automated aircraft report database (including radiosonde and satellite data), producing an accurate and precise description of the initial state of the atmosphere, and a relatively simple forecast model to move the forecast forward in time. The steadily updated 2-12 h forecasts provided every 3 h will be more efficient and accurate than the present 18 and 24 h forecasts provided every 12 hours.

Steinberg, R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties with a Single-Moment Mircophysics Scheme

Single-moment microphysics schemes are utilized in an increasing number of applications and are widely available within numerical modeling packages, often executed in near real-time to aid in the issuance of weather forecasts and advisories. In order to simulate cloud microphysical and precipitation processes, a number of assumptions are made within these schemes. Snow crystals are often assumed to be spherical and of uniform density, and their size distribution intercept may be fixed to simplify calculation of the remaining parameters. Recently, the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) provided aircraft observations of snow crystal size distributions and environmental state variables, sampling widespread snowfall associated with a passing extratropical cyclone on 22 January 2007. Aircraft instrumentation was supplemented by comparable surface estimations and sampling by two radars: the C-band, dual-polarimetric radar in King City, Ontario and the NASA CloudSat 94 GHz Cloud Profiling Radar. As radar systems respond to both hydrometeor mass and size distribution, they provide value when assessing the accuracy of cloud characteristics as simulated by a forecast model. However, simulation of the 94 GHz radar signal requires special attention, as radar backscatter is sensitive to the assumed crystal shape. Observations obtained during the 22 January 2007 event are used to validate assumptions of density and size distribution within the NASA Goddard six-class single-moment microphysics scheme. Two high resolution forecasts are performed on a 9-3-1 km grid, with C3VP-based alternative parameterizations incorporated and examined for improvement. In order to apply the CloudSat 94 GHz radar to model validation, the single scattering characteristics of various crystal types are used and demonstrate that the assumption of Mie spheres is insufficient for representing CloudSat reflectivity derived from winter precipitation. Furthermore, snow density and size distribution characteristics are allowed to vary with height, based upon direct aircraft estimates obtained from C3VP data. These combinations improve the representation of modeled clouds versus their radar-observed counterparts, based on profiles and vertical distributions of reflectivity. These meteorological events are commonplace within the mid-latitude cold season and present a challenge to operational forecasters. This study focuses on one event, likely representative of others during the winter season, and aims to improve the representation of snow for use in future operational forecasts.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

LACIE: An experiment in global crop forecasting

The author has identified the following significant results. Both the accuracy and efficiency with which LACIE crop survey estimates were made have shown significant improvement in three years. In the U.S. and U.S.S.R. winter wheat regions, the original accuracy goals were met or exceeded, with 90/90 estimates achieved in the United States 1.5 to 2 months before harvest. Additionally, all available accuracy parameters indicate 90/90 estimates for the U.S.S.R. total crop. Key technology problems were identified during phase 2 with spring wheat in the United States and Canada which prevented the attainment of 90/90 accuracies in these regions. Technology solutions developed and tested in phase 3 partly resolved these issues with a significant improvement realized in the accuracy of the spring wheat area estimates.

Macdonald, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Global crop forecasting

The needs for and remote sensing means of global crop forecasting are discussed, and key results of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) are presented. Current crop production estimates provided by foreign countries are shown often to be inadequate, and the basic elements of crop production forecasts are reviewed. The LACIE project is introduced as a proof-of-concept experiment designed to assimilate remote sensing technology, monitor global wheat production, evaluate key technical problems, modify the technique accordingly and demonstrate the feasibility of a global agricultural monitoring system. The global meteorological data, sampling and aggregation techniques, Landsat data analysis procedures and yield forecast procedures used in the experiment are outlined. Accuracy assessment procedures employed to evaluate LACIE technology performance are presented, and improvements in system efficiency and capacity during the three years of operation are pointed out. Results of LACIE estimates of Soviet, U.S. and Canadian wheat production are presented which demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the remote-sensing approach for global food and fiber monitoring.

Macdonald, R. B.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Procedure for Obtaining Forecast Turbulence Parameters in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer for Acoustic Propagation

Propagation through turbulence causes a mean reduction in loudness of sonic booms and in some cases can cause significant fluctuations in loudness about that mean. Understanding these effects is important for accurately planning loudness levels during upcoming community noise tests with the X-59 aircraft as well as mitigating the risk for excessive loudness due to turbulence. Current methods for modeling acoustic propagation through turbulence require several atmospheric parameters including the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height, friction velocity, mixed-layer velocity scale, surface-layer temperature scale, as well as ambient pressure, temperature, and humidity within the ABL. Accurate forecasts of these parameters are needed for X-59 flight planning and may also be useful for planning future supersonic aircraft certification flight tests. This presentation showcases one method for obtaining the forecast turbulence and ambient atmospheric parameters from freely available Climate Forecast System Version 2 data. Forecast parameters are compared to measurements to assess accuracy and utility.

sonic boom↗
NASA NTRS1979

Relationship of physiography and snow area to stream discharge

The author has identified the following significant results. A comparison of snowmelt runoff models shows that the accuracy of the Tangborn model and regression models is greater if the test data falls within the range of calibration than if the test data lies outside the range of calibration data. The regression models are significantly more accurate for forecasts of 60 days or more than for shorter prediction periods. The Tangborn model is more accurate for forecasts of 90 days or more than for shorter prediction periods. The Martinec model is more accurate for forecasts of one or two days than for periods of 3,5,10, or 15 days. Accuracy of the long-term models seems to be independent of forecast data. The sufficiency of the calibration data base is a function not only of the number of years of record but also of the accuracy with which the calibration years represent the total population of data years. Twelve years appears to be a sufficient length of record for each of the models considered, as long as the twelve years are representative of the population.

Mccuen, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Evaluation of Landsat image registration accuracy

The Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) is an attempt to demonstrate the capability to forecast the annual production of major crops such as wheat and corn. Good image registration of data acquired on different dates is one of the key assumptions made in LACIE. This paper describes an algorithm to measure the accuracy of the current registration procedure. This algorithm employs a modified version of sequential similarity detection algorithm (SSDA). Based on over 264 registration checks, it was found that the root-mean-square of registration errors was 1.0 pixel. The failure rate of our registration checking algorithm was less than 10 per cent and the standard deviation of the accuracy of this algorithm was less than 0.2 picture element.

Kaneko, T.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Time-continuous assimilation of remote-sounding data and its effect on weather forecasting

Methods were developed for the time-continuous assimilation of satellite-sounding temperature data: direct insertion method, asynoptic successive correction method, and local linear regression method. These methods were applied to DST-6 data from the operational and experimental temperature sounders aboard the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. Attention is given to a comparison of these methods and their effect on the accuracy of the initial states obtained, as well as the resulting forecasts generated from these initial states. The results suggest that (1) satellite-derived temperature data can have a modest though statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the 2-3 day range; (2) the impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available; and (3) the method of satellite-data assimilation can substantially influence the magnitude of the impact obtained for the same data.

Ghil, M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Two Topics in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting: Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Precipitation Downscaling

Continental-scale offline simulations with a land surface model are used to address two important issues in the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which the downscaling of seasonal precipitation forecasts, if it could be done accurately, would improve streamflow forecasts. The reduction in streamflow forecast skill (with forecasted streamflow measured against observations) associated with adding noise to a soil moisture field is found to be, to first order, proportional to the average reduction in the accuracy of the soil moisture field itself. This result has implications for streamflow forecast improvement under satellite-based soil moisture measurement programs. In the second and more idealized ("perfect model") analysis, precipitation downscaling is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only if two conditions are met: (i) evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance, and (ii) the subgrid spatial variance of precipitation is adequately large. In the large-scale continental region studied (the conterminous United States), these two conditions are met in only a somewhat limited area.

Koster, Randal↗
NASA NTRS1998

Capacitively Stabilized Etalon Technology for Spaceborne Wind Lidar Application

Global monitoring by satellites is important for many types of environmental studies. Among these, the wind field is the single most important atmospheric state variable required for understanding atmospheric motion and predicting weather. Studies indicate that a global determination of the tropospheric wind field to an accuracy of 1-5 m/sec is critical for improved numerical weather forecasting. This measurement could be carried out with a spaceborne lidar system sensing the Doppler shift of a laser signal backscattered from the atmosphere. Over the past four years we have developed a ground-based Edge Technique lidar system and demonstrated wind measurements through the troposphere with high accuracy (1-6 m/s) and high spatial resolution. Recently, we began the design of a shuttle based wind measurement system for technology demonstration as part of the Zephyr program. In this paper, we present the characteristics of the high spectral resolution etalon filter technology for lidar wind measurement with the Edge Technique. In conclusion, a spacecraft motion compensation method has been discussed. We demonstrated experimentally that the etalon can be tuned to compensate for any satellite induced Doppler shift to an accuracy of better than 0.6 m/s over a time period of 2.5 ms.

Li, Steven X.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Initialization of mesoscale models - The possible impact of remotely sensed data

Little or no improvement appears to have been achieved in mesoscale numerical prediction. This has been blamed on inherent unpredictability, insufficient spatial resolution, inadequate parameterization of important physical processes, and errors in the numerical discretization of the governing hydrodynamic equations. Attention is presently given to the more fundamental difficulty of forecasting when present conditions are not known with sufficient accuracy, and to the matching of remotely sensed sounding-capability satellite and all-weather Doppler radar data with mesoscale numerical models. This matching is not straightforward; simple and variational forms of four-dimensional assimilation, and Kalman filtering, are suggested approaches but their practical testing remains to be accomplished. The most severe problem faced is that of the temperature and humidity profiles' vertical resolution.

Gal-Chen, T.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A simplified wind vector algorithm for satellite scatterometers

A simplified algorithm is derived for retrieving wind vectors from microwave scatterometer observations. The azimuthal dependence of the sea-surface radar cross section is modeled by a double-cosine function, rather than the traditional second-order cosine expansion. The algorithm is tested using the aircraft scatterometer observations obtained during the AAFE-RADSCAT Experiment in 1975 and 1976. There is little difference between the performance of the simplified algorithm and the more involved least-squares searching algorithm. The AAFE-RADSCAT aircraft observations are sampled so as to simulate the three-look satellite scatterometer NSCAT that will be launched on the Japanese Advanced Earth Observing Satellite. The results of the retrievals indicate that it is probably not possible to uniquely determine the wind direction using just NSCAT observations because of a 180 degree ambiguity. However, if forecast models can predict the wind direction to an accuracy of +/- 90 deg, thereby eliminating the ambiguity, then the results indicate that NSCAT can determine the wind direction to an accuracy of about +/- 20 deg. Better performance is obtained when the three observations are the same polarization (either v-pol or h-pol), as compared to using a mix of v-pol and h-pol observations.

Wentz, Frank J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Investigation of water vapor motion winds from geostationary satellites

Water vapor imagery from geostationary satellites has been available for over a decade. These data are used extensively by operational analysts and forecasters, mainly in a qualitative mode (Weldon and Holmes 1991). In addition to qualitative applications, motions deduced in animated water vapor imagery can be used to infer wind fields in cloudless regimes, thereby augmenting the information provided by cloud-drift wind vectors. Early attempts at quantifying the data by tracking features in water vapor imagery met with modest success (Stewart et al. 1985; Hayden and Stewart 1987). More recently, automated techniques have been developed and refined, and have resulted in upper-level wind observations comparable in quality to current operational cloud-tracked winds (Laurent 1993). In a recent study by Velden et al. (1993) it was demonstrated that wind sets derived from Meteosat-3 (M-3) water vapor imagery can provide important environmental wind information in data void areas surrounding tropical cyclones, and can positively impact objective track forecasts. M-3 was repositioned to 75W by the European Space Agency in 1992 in order to provide complete coverage of the Atlantic Ocean. Data from this satellite are being transmitted to the U.S. for operational use. Compared with the current GOES-7 (G-7) satellite (positioned near 112W), the M-3 water vapor channel contains a superior horizontal resolution (5 km vs. 16 km ). In this paper, we examine wind sets derived using automated procedures from both GOES-7 and Meteosat-3 full disk water vapor imagery in order to assess this data as a potentially important source of large-scale wind information. As part of a product demonstration wind sets were produced twice a day at CIMSS during a six-week period in March and April (1994). These data sets are assessed in terms of geographic coverage, statistical accuracy, and meteorological impact through preliminary results of numerical model forecast studies.

Velden, Christopher S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Updated Kain-Fritsch Scheme

Efforts to improve the prediction accuracy of high resolution (1-10 km) surface precipitation distribution and variability are of vital importance to local aspects of air pollution, wet deposition, and regional climate. However, precipitation biases and errors can occur at these spatial scales due to uncertainties in initial meteorological conditions and/or grid-scale cloud microphysics schemes. In particular, it is still unclear to what extent a subgrid-scale convection scheme could be modified to bring in scale-awareness for improving high-resolution short-term precipitation forecasts in the WRF model. To address these issues, we introduced scale-aware parameterized cloud dynamics for high-resolution forecasts by making several changes to the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model. These changes include subgrid-scale cloud-radiation interactions, a dynamic adjustment timescale, impacts of cloud updraft mass fluxes on grid-scale vertical velocity, and lifting condensation level-based entrainment methodology that includes scale dependency. A series of 48-hour retrospective forecasts using a combination of three treatments of convection (KF, updated KF, and the use of no cumulus parameterization), two cloud microphysics schemes and two types of initial condition datasets were performed over the U.S. southern Great Plains on 9- and 3-km grid spacings during the summers of 2002 and 2010. Results indicate that (1) the source of initial conditions play a key role in high-resolution precipitation forecasting, and (2) our updated KF scheme greatly alleviates the excessive precipitation at 9-km grid spacing and improves results at 3-km grid spacing as well. Overall, we found that the updated KF scheme incorporated into a high-resolution model does provide better forecasts for precipitation location and intensity.

convective parameterization↗
NASA NTRS1975

A parametric study of the value of hydrological information for irrigation and hydropower management of the Feather River

A case study analysis is presented of the relationships between improvements in the accuracy, frequency, and timeliness of information used in making hydrological forecasts and economic benefits in the areas of hydropower and irrigation. The area chosen for the case study is the Oroville Dam and Reservoir. Emphasis is placed on the use of timely and accurate mapping of the aerial extent of snow in the basin by earth resources survey systems such as LANDSAT. The subject of benefits resulting from improved runoff forecasts is treated in a generalized way without specifying the source of the improvements.

Wetzler, E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Observing system simulation experiments related to space-borne Lidar wind profiling. Part 1: Forecast impacts of highly idealized observing systems

Simulation experiments comparing the relative importance of an idealized LIDAR wind profiling system with idealized temperature and pressure sounding systems on 12 h forecasts are studied for three "nature' fields representing the true evolving atmospheric states. The three fields are obtained respectively from: (1) a long integration of the GLAS 4th Order Model (4 deg lat x 5 deg lon x 9 levels), (2) a continuous sequence of NMC operational analysis and, (3) a long integration of the ECMWF high resolution (1.875 deg 1 lat x 1.875 deg lon x 15 layers) operational forecast model. These fields are interpolated to the grid of the GLAS model and used for simulating the observed global analysed fields of winds, temperature, moisture and surface pressure. The same interpolated fields are also used for verification of forecast impact. The effects of clouds, aerosol concentrations, and instrument accuracies on the simulated observation will be discussed.

Halem, M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Using Remotely Sensed Information for Near Real-Time Landslide Hazard Assessment

The increasing availability of remotely sensed precipitation and surface products provides a unique opportunity to explore how landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment may be approached at larger spatial scales with higher resolution remote sensing products. A prototype global landslide hazard assessment framework has been developed to evaluate how landslide susceptibility and satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used to identify potential landslide conditions in near-real time. Preliminary analysis of this algorithm suggests that forecasting errors are geographically variable due to the resolution and accuracy of the current susceptibility map and the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates. This research is currently working to improve the algorithm through considering higher spatial and temporal resolution landslide susceptibility information and testing different rainfall triggering thresholds, antecedent rainfall scenarios, and various surface products at regional and global scales.

remote sensing↗