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Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRS2022

Polarization performance simulation for the GeoXO atmospheric composition instrument: NO2 retrieval impacts

NOAA’s Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) constellation will continue and expand on the capabilities of the current generation of geostationary satellite systems to support US weather, ocean, atmosphere, and climate operations. It is planned to consist of a dedicated atmospheric composition instrument (ACX) to support air quality forecasting and monitoring by providing similar capabilities to missions such as TEMPO (Tropospheric Emission: Monitoring Pollution), currently planned to launch in 2023, and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument), and GEMS (Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer) currently in operation. As the early phases of ACX development are progressing, design trade-offs are being considered to understand the relationship between instrument design choices and trace gas retrieval impacts. Some of these choices will affect the instrument polarization sensitivity (PS), which can have radiometric impacts on environmental satellite observations. We conducted a study to investigate how such radiometric impacts can affect NO2 retrievals by exploring their sensitivities to time of day, location, and scene type with an ACX instrument model that incorporates PS. The study addresses the basic steps of operational NO2 retrievals: the spectral fitting step and the conversion of slant column to vertical column via the air mass factor (AMF). The spectral fitting step was performed by generating at-sensor radiance from a clear sky scene with a known NO2 amount, the application of an instrument model including both instrument PS and noise, and a physical retrieval. The spectral fitting step was found to mitigate the impacts of instrument PS. The AMF-related step was considered for clear sky and partially cloudy scenes, where instrument PS can lead to errors in interpreting the cloud content, propagating to AMF errors and finally to NO2 retrieval errors. For this step, the NO2 retrieval impacts were small but non-negligible for high NO2 amounts; we estimated that a typical high NO2 amount can cause maximum of 0.25 x 10^15 molecules/cm^2 for a PS of 5%. These simulation capabilities were designed to aid in the development of a GeoXO atmospheric composition instrument that will improve our ability to monitor and understand the Earth’s atmosphere.

trace gases↗

DOE OSTI2021

History Matching and Performance Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope (ANS) is ongoing. After more than 2.5 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is economically attractive.

Wang, Xindan↗

NASA NTRS2022

Polarization Performance Simulation for the GeoXO Atmospheric Composition Instrument: NO2 Retrieval Impacts

NOAA's Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) constellation will continue and expand on the capabilities of the current generation of geostationary satellite systems to support US weather, ocean, atmosphere, and climate operations. It is planned to consist of a dedicated atmospheric composition instrument (ACX) to support air quality forecasting and monitoring by providing capabilities similar to missions such as TEMPO (Tropospheric Emission: Monitoring Pollution), currently planned to launch in 2023, as well as OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument), TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument), and GEMS (Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer) currently in operation. As the early phases of ACX development are progressing, design trade-offs are being considered to understand the relationship between instrument design choices and trace gas retrieval impacts. Some of these choices will affect the instrument polarization sensitivity (PS), which can have radiometric impacts on environmental satellite observations. We conducted a study to investigate how such radiometric impacts can affect NO2 retrievals by exploring their sensitivities to time of day, location, and scene type with an ACX instrument model that incorporates PS. The study addresses the basic steps of operational NO2 retrievals: the spectral fitting step and the conversion of slant column to vertical column via the air mass factor (AMF). The spectral fitting step was performed by generating at-sensor radiance from a clear-sky scene with a known NO2 amount, the application of an instrument model including both instrument PS and noise, and a physical retrieval. The spectral fitting step was found to mitigate the impacts of instrument PS. The AMF-related step was considered for clear-sky and partially cloudy scenes, for which instrument PS can lead to errors in interpreting the cloud content, propagating to AMF errors and finally to NO2 retrieval errors. For this step, the NO2 retrieval impacts were small but non-negligible for high NO2 amounts; we estimated that a typical high NO2 amount can cause a maximum retrieval error of 0.25×1015 molec. cm−2 for a PS of 5 %. These simulation capabilities were designed to aid in the development of a GeoXO atmospheric composition instrument that will improve our ability to monitor and understand the Earth's atmosphere.

Aaron Pearlman↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assimilation of SMOS Brightness Temperatures or Soil Moisture Retrievals into a Land Surface Model

Three different data products from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are assimilated separately into the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) to improve estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture. The first product consists of multi-angle, dual-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations at the bottom of the atmosphere extracted from Level 1 data. The second product is a derived SMOS Tb product that mimics the data at a 40 degree incidence angle from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The third product is the operational SMOS Level 2 surface soil moisture (SM) retrieval product. The assimilation system uses a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with seasonally varying climatological bias mitigation for Tb assimilation, whereas a time-invariant cumulative density function matching is used for SM retrieval assimilation. All assimilation experiments improve the soil moisture estimates compared to model-only simulations in terms of unbiased root-mean-square differences and anomaly correlations during the period from 1 July 2010 to 1 May 2015 and for 187 sites across the US. Especially in areas where the satellite data are most sensitive to surface soil moisture, large skill improvements (e.g., an increase in the anomaly correlation by 0.1) are found in the surface soil moisture. The domain-average surface and root-zone skill metrics are similar among the various assimilation experiments, but large differences in skill are found locally. The observation-minus-forecast residuals and analysis increments reveal large differences in how the observations add value in the Tb and SM retrieval assimilation systems. The distinct patterns of these diagnostics in the two systems reflect observation and model errors patterns that are not well captured in the assigned EnKF error parameters. Consequently, a localized optimization of the EnKF error parameters is needed to further improve Tb or SM retrieval assimilation.

SMOS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Seven Years of Observations of Mid-Tropospheric CO2 from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS acquires hyperspectral infrared radiances in the 3.7-15.4 um spectral region with spectral resolution of better than 1200. The AIRS was designed to measure temperature and water vapor profiles and cloud properties for improvement in weather forecast and improved parameterization of climate processes. Currently the AIRS Level 1B Radiance Products are assimilated by NWP centers and have shown considerable forecast improvement. Scientists have also demonstrated accurate retrievals of minor gases from AIRS including Carbon Monoxide, Methane, and Ozone. The excellent sensitivity and stability of the AIRS instrument has recently allowed the AIRS team to successfully retrieve Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the mid-troposphere (8-10 km) with a horizontal resolution of 100 km and accuracy of 1-2 ppm. The AIRS retrieves over 15,000 measurements per day and can achieve full global coverage in 30 days. The AIRS CO2 accuracy has been validated against a variety of aircraft measurements in the mid-troposphere and upward looking interferometers. Findings from the AIRS data include higher than expected variability in the mid-troposphere, the presence of a belt of CO2 in the southern hemisphere, and numerous observations of atmospheric circulation including the effects of El Nino/La Nina on the CO2 concentrations in the mid-troposphere. The full mid-tropospheric AIRS CO2 data set is now available at the NASA GES/DISC for almost eight years since AIRS has been operational.

carbon dioxide↗

NASA NTRS2009

Modeling and Observational Framework for Diagnosing Local Land-Atmosphere Coupling on Diurnal Time Scales

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during field experiments in the U. S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to the Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. Within this framework, the coupling established by each pairing of the available PBL schemes in WRF with the LSMs in LIS is evaluated in terms of the diurnal temperature and humidity evolution in the mixed layer. The co-evolution of these variables and the convective PBL is sensitive to and, in fact, integrative of the dominant processes that govern the PBL budget, which are synthesized through the use of mixing diagrams. Results show how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of PBL scheme and LSM varies across surface moisture regimes and can be quantified and evaluated against observations. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A North Sea in Situ Evaluation of the Fitch Wind Farm Parameterization Within the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino and 3D Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes

Wind resource assessments and wind power forecasts that account for wind farm wakes are sensitive to the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. This work compares the one-dimensional Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme with a three-dimensional PBL (3DPBL) scheme, evaluating predictions made with both schemes against two sets of North Sea in situ observations of wind farm wakes. The optimal PBL scheme varies based on the observations (FINO1 tower vs. aircraft), the quantity of interest (wind speed vs. turbulence kinetic energy [TKE]), and the error metric (bias, centered root mean square error [cRMSE], R2, and earth mover's distance [EMD]). Whereas 3DPBL wind speeds outperform MYNN wind speeds with respect to the cRMSE at the FINO1 site located at a single point within the turbine rotor layer, 3DPBL TKE bias is larger than MYNN TKE bias when compared to aircraft observations taken 100 m above a wind farm. Wind speeds in the aircraft region are ambiguous with regard to which PBL scheme is optimal. Aircraft MYNN wind speeds outperform 3DPBL wind speeds with respect to R2 and cRMSE but underperform with respect to bias and EMD. Future evaluations across broader temporal and spatial scales may offer further insight into model differences.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulated wind farm wake sensitivity to configuration choices in the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.8.1

Wakes from wind farms can extend over 50 km downwind in stably stratified conditions. These wakes can undermine power production at downwind turbines, adversely impacting revenue. As such, wind farm wake impacts must be considered in wind resource assessments, especially in regions of dense wind farm development. The open-source Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model includes a wind farm parameterization to estimate wind farm wake effects, but model configuration choices can influence the resulting predictions of wind farm wakes. These choices include vertical resolution, horizontal resolution, and whether or not to include the addition of turbulent kinetic energy generated by the rotating wind turbines. Despite the sensitivity to model configuration, no clear guidance currently exists for these options. Here we compare simulated wind farm wakes produced by varying model configurations with meteorological observations near a land-based wind farm in flat terrain over several diurnal cycles. A WRF configuration comprised of horizontal resolutions of 3 km or 1 km paired with a vertical resolution of 10 m provides the most accurate representation of wind farm wake effects, such as the correct surface warming and elevated wind speed deficit. The inclusion of turbine-generated turbulence is also critical to produce accurate surface warming and should not be omitted.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Dark Energy Bedrock All-sky Supernova Program: Cross Calibration, Simulations, and Cosmology Forecasts

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have been essential for probing the nature of dark energy; however, most SN analyses rely on the same low-redshift sample, which may lead to shared systematics. In a companion paper, we introduce the Dark Energy Bedrock All-Sky Supernova (DEBASS) program, which has already collected more than 500 low-redshift SNe Ia on the Dark Energy Camera, and present an initial release of 77 SNe Ia within the Dark Energy Survey (DES) footprint observed between 2021 and 2024. Here, we examine the systematics, including photometric calibration and selection effects. We find agreement at the 10 mmag level among the tertiary standard stars of DEBASS, DES, and Pan-STARRS1. Our simulations reproduce the observed distributions of DEBASS SN light-curve properties, and we measure a bias-corrected Hubble residual scatter of 0.08 mag, which, while small, is found in 10% of our simulations. We compare the DEBASS SN distances to the Foundation sample and find consistency with a median residual offset of 0.016 ± 0.019 mag. Selection effects have negligible impacts on distances, but a different photometric calibration solution shifts the median residual −0.015 ± 0.019 mag, highlighting calibration sensitivity. Using conservative simulations, we forecast that replacing historical low-redshift samples with the full DEBASS sample will improve the statistical uncertainties on dark energy parameters w 0 and w a by 30% and 24%, respectively, enhance the dark energy Figure of Merit by up to 60%, and enable a measurement of fσ 8 at the 25% level.

Acevedo, Maria [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United Sta↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effects of spatial resolution on WRF v3.8.1 simulated meteorology over the central Himalaya

The sensitive ecosystem of the central Himalayan (CH) region, which is experiencing enhanced stress from anthropogenic forcing, requires adequate atmospheric observations and an improved representation of the Himalaya in the models. However, the accuracy of atmospheric models remains limited in this region due to highly complex mountainous topography. This article delineates the effects of spatial resolution on the modeled meteorology and dynamics over the CH by utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model extensively evaluated against the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) observations during the summer monsoon. The WRF simulation is performed over a domain (d01) encompassing northern India at 15 km x 15 km resolution and two nests (d02 at 5 km x 5 km and d03 at 1 km x 1 km) centered over the CH, with boundary conditions from the respective parent domains. WRF simulations reveal higher variability in meteorology, e.g., relative humidity (RH = 70.3%-96.1%) and wind speed (WS = 1.1-4.2m s(-1)), compared to the ERA-Interim reanalysis (RH D 80.0%-85.0%, WS D 1.2-2.3m s(-1)) over northern India owing to the higher resolution. WRF-simulated temporal evolution of meteorological variables is found to agree with balloon-borne measurements, with stronger correlations aloft (r = 0.44-0.92) than those in the lower troposphere (r = 0.18-0.48). The model overestimates temperature (warm bias by 2.8 degrees C) and underestimates RH (dry bias by 6.4 %) at the surface in d01. Model results show a significant improvement in d03 (P = 827.6 hPa, T = 19.8 degrees C, RH = 92.3 %), closer to the GVAX observations (P = 801.4 hPa, T = 19.5 degrees C, RH = 94.7 %). Interpolating the output from the coarser domains (d01, d02) to the altitude of the station reduces the biases in pressure and temperature; however, it suppresses the diurnal variations, highlighting the importance of well-resolved terrain (d03). Temporal variations in near-surface P, T, and RH are also reproduced by WRF in d03 to an extent (r>0:5). A sensitivity simulation incorporating the feedback from the nested domain demonstrates the improvement in simulated P, T, and RH over the CH. Our study shows that the WRF model setup at finer spatial resolution can significantly reduce the biases in simulated meteorology, and such an improved representation of the CH can be adopted through domain feedback into regional-scale simulations. Interestingly, WRF simulates a dominant easterly wind component at 1 km x 1 km resolution (d03), which is missing in the coarse simulations; however, the frequency of southeasterlies remains underestimated. The model simulation implementing a highresolution (3 s) topography input (SRTM) improved the prediction of wind directions; nevertheless, further improvements are required to better reproduce the observed local-scale dynamics over the CH.

Singh, Jaydeep↗

NASA NTRS2021

Contribution of Meteorological Downscaling to Skill and Precision of Seasonal Drought Forecasts

Research in meteorological prediction on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has seen growth in recent years. Concurrent with this, demand for seasonal drought forecasting has risen. While there is obvious synergy between these fields, S2S meteorological forecasting has typically focused on low resolution global models, while the development of drought can be sensitive to the local expression of weather anomalies and their interaction with local surface properties and processes. This suggests that downscaling might play an important role in the application of meteorological S2S forecasts to skillful forecasting of drought. Here, we apply the Generalized Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) algorithm to downscale meteorological hindcasts from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global S2S forecast system. Downscaled meteorological fields are then applied to drive offline simulations with the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) to forecast United States Drought Monitor (USDM) style drought indicators derived from simulated surface hydrology variables. We compare the representation of drought in these downscaled hindcasts to hindcasts that are not downscaled, using the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset as an observational reference. We find that downscaling using GARD improves hindcasts of temperature and temperature anomalies, but the results for precipitation are mixed and generally small. Overall, GARD downscaling led to improved hindcast skill for total drought across the Contiguous United States (CONUS), and improvements were greatest for extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought categories.

Ryan A Zamora↗

DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

The objectives are to describe synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the systems leading to this variability; implement satellite analysis procedures in support of this effort, and to incorporate additional satellite information into operational analysis forecast systems at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). Composite satellite radiance patterns describe features detectable well before the development of synoptic scale tropical plumes. These typical features were extracted from historical files of Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) radiance observations for a pair of tropical plumes which developed during January 1989. Signals were inserted into the NMC operational medium range forecast model and a suite of model integrations were conducted. Many of the 48 h model errors of the historical forecasts were eliminated by the inclusion of more complete satellite observations. Three studies in satellite radiance analysis progressed. An analysis which blended TOVS moisture channels, OLR observations and European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis to generate fields of total precipitable water comparable to those estimated from Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) mu-wave observations. This study demonstrated that a 10 y climatology of precipitable water over the oceans is feasible, using available infrared observations (OLR and TOVS) and model analysis (ECMWF, NMC or similar quality). The estimates are sensitive to model quality and the estimating model must be updated with operational model changes. Coe developed a set of tropical plume and ITCZ composites from TOVS observations, and from NMC and ECMWF analyses which had been passed through a radiative transfer model to simulate TOVS radiances. The composites have been completed as well as many statistical diagnostics of individual TOVS channels. Analysis of the computations is commencing. Chung has initiated a study of the differences between TOVS observed vapor structure during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (1983) and non-ENSO (1984) years. Preliminary diagnosis demonstrates gross moisture changes between warm and cold sea surface temperature episodes.

Mcguirk, James P.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Impact of Flow-Dependent Error Correlations and Tropospheric Chemistry on Assimilated Ozone

The presentation compares different versions of a global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office. The Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) total and partial ozone column retrievals are the sole data assimilated in all of the experiments presented. We study the impact of changing the forecast error covariance model from a version assuming static correlations with a one that captures a short-term Lagrangian evolution of those correlations. This is further combined with a study of the impact of neglecting the tropospheric ozone production, loss and dry deposition rates, which are obtained from the Harvard GEOS-CHEM model. We compare statistical characteristics of the assimilated data and the results of validation against independent observations, obtained from WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres. On the other hand, the main sensitivity to tropospheric chemistry is in the Tropics and sub-Tropics. The best agreement between the assimilated ozone and the in-situ sonde data is in the experiment using both flow-dependent error covariances and tropospheric chemistry.

Wargan, K.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Modeling Bird Migration in Changing Habitats: Space-based Ornithology using Satellites and GIS

Understanding bird migration and avian biodiversity is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties presenting challenges in both geographic space and time. Space based technology, coupled with geographic information systems, yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At NASA, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. In our work, we use individual organism biophysical models and drive these models with satellite observations and numerical weather predictions of the spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat. Geographic information system technology comprises one component of our overall simulation framework, especially for characterizing the changing habitats and conditions encountered by en-route migratory birds. Simulation provides a tool for studying bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. Such models yield an understanding of how a migratory flyway and its component habitats function as a whole and link stop-over ecology with biological conservation and management. We present examples of our simulation of shorebirds, principally, pectoral sandpipers, along the central flyways of the United States and Canada from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Smith, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Building a standardized Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework for Mars

We advocate that the Decadal Survey recommends the NASA Science Mission Directorate to develop a rigorous Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework for Mars, to optimize future atmospheric observations. Atmospheric conditions on Mars are a potential hazard source for landing missions. Errors in the estimates of atmospheric density profiles, inadequate knowledge of wind vertical structure and dust concentration as a function of height are likely causes of uncertainty at the landing site on the order of kilometers. An operational real-time weather forecasting capability for Mars would reduce such uncertainties, carrying enormous benefits to future robotic missions, and would be an invaluable prerequisite for human missions.A real-time forecasting capability relies upon three fundamental components: a critical mass of observing systems, a data assimilation system (DAS), and a global forecast model. The DAS allows the model to ingest the data effectively, optimizing the observational information content,and transforming them into a gridded representation of the atmosphere at a given time, called an ‘analysis’. The analysis is the best estimate of the atmospheric state for that time, and also represents a set of ‘initial conditions’ from which a global model can be initialized, to predict a future state of the atmosphere. The connection between analysis and forecast represents the foundation of modern weather forecasting. However, from the point of view of a forecast system,not all observations are equally impactful, partially because of the problem of “observational error correlation”, one important research topic in data assimilation development. For the Earth, partly due to the spontaneous and deregulated development of observations and forecast capabilities worldwide for more than half a century,the use of observations in contemporary operational forecast systems is suboptimal, with many potentially useful data being underutilized. On the contrary, Mars atmospheric scientists are in the unique situation of designing the next-generation observing systems by learning from the experience gathered on the Earth, so as to assure that the future instruments are specifically optimized to give the maximum benefit to a future weather forecast capability.An immensely powerful tool that has been firmly established by atmospheric scientists on the Earth is represented by a properly designed OSSE framework. A realistic OSSE framework cannot only quantify the benefit of future data types, be them surface based or space borne, but can also help design and optimize an entire observational network. Furthermore, OSSEs can provide deep insights into an atmosphere’s behavior, by addressing conceptual problems of its intrinsic predictability and delineating the regions or features of the atmosphere which are more sensitive to additional data and would benefit from a denser sampling. The difficulties posed by OSSEs are fundamentally different for Earth and Mars. For Earth, the enormous data volume imposes a tremendous constraint on any innovation in the observing systems: it is very hard for a single sensor to impact the skill. For Mars, the problem is the opposite: almost any additional instrument will exert some impact. However, OSSEs can help to evaluate the cost/benefit for every sensor and suggest optimal data configuration and density.The purpose of this white paper is to provide an introduction to a rigorously designed OSSE framework, explain the underlying problems and challenges, and engage the Mars community to collaborate with Earth Atmospheric scientists in order to develop a joint-OSSE framework for Mars with the largest consensual basis possible. An OSSE infrastructure would increase the understanding of the Martian atmosphere, would help NASA to optimize instrument specifications and orbit choice, providing the maximium benefit for a given expenditure of resources, and could even help establishing a roadmap for a future real-time weather forecasting capability.

Oreste Reale↗

NASA NTRS1984

Simulation Experiments on the Relative Accuracy of Inferred Atmospheric States from Idealized Wind and Temperature Profiling Systems

The First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) led to the planning, design and implementation of a global observing system. Technologies as coherent CO2 LIDAR systems and highly sensitive IR detectors offer the potential of more accurate global spaceborne observation systems. The advent of super computers allows general circulation modeling and more sophisticated data analysis schemes. The consideration of advanced spaceborne systems better suited to meet the new emerging requirements are suggested. The Global Weather Experiment provides us with a new baseline to assess data accuracy and forecasting capabilities which is used for study of the incremental performance.

Halem, M.↗