Results for “future projections” — Page 10

NASA NTRS2023

Highly Restricted Near‐Surface Permafrost Extent During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

To better understand how near‐surface permafrost may respond to future warming, we explore the equilibrium spatial extent of near‐surface permafrost during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP), which shares characteristics of the projected future climate. Our simulations, which are constrained by proxy records, suggest highly restricted near‐surface permafrost extent during the mPWP, akin to future large-scale permafrost degradation projections of our model for the end of this century. Our study indicates dramatically smaller-than-present near‐surface permafrost extent in the geological past under climate conditions analogous to those expected if global warming continues unabated. This absence in permafrost will come with critical implications for the global carbon cycle, human livelihoods and infrastructures, and surface and subsurface hydrology.

near‐surface permafrost↗

NASA NTRS2011

Lessons Learned in Engineering

This Contractor Report (CR) is a compilation of Lessons Learned in approximately 55 years of engineering experience by each James C. Blair, Robert S. Ryan, and Luke A. Schutzenhofer. The lessons are the basis of a course on Lessons Learned that has been taught at Marshall Space Flight Center. The lessons are drawn from NASA space projects and are characterized in terms of generic lessons learned from the project experience, which are further distilled into overarching principles that can be applied to future projects. Included are discussions of the overarching principles followed by a listing of the lessons associated with that principle. The lesson with sub-lessons are stated along with a listing of the project problems the lesson is drawn from, then each problem is illustrated and discussed, with conclusions drawn in terms of Lessons Learned. The purpose of this CR is to provide principles learned from past aerospace experience to help achieve greater success in future programs, and identify application of these principles to space systems design. The problems experienced provide insight into the engineering process and are examples of the subtleties one experiences performing engineering design, manufacturing, and operations.

Blair, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Lessons Learned in Engineering

This Contractor Report (CR) is a compilation of Lessons Learned in approximately 55 years of engineering experience by each James C. Blair, Robert S. Ryan, and Luke A. Schutzenhofer. The lessons are the basis of a course on Lessons Learned that has been taught at Marshall Space Flight Center. The lessons are drawn from NASA space projects and are characterized in terms of generic lessons learned from the project experience, which are further distilled into overarching principles that can be applied to future projects. Included are discussions of the overarching principles followed by a listing of the lessons associated with that principle. The lesson with sub-lessons are stated along with a listing of the project problems the lesson is drawn from, then each problem is illustrated and discussed, with conclusions drawn in terms of Lessons Learned. The purpose of this CR is to provide principles learned from past aerospace experience to help achieve greater success in future programs, and identify application of these principles to space systems design. The problems experienced provide insight into the engineering process and are examples of the subtleties one experiences performing engineering design, manufacturing, and operations. The supplemental CD contains accompanying PowerPoint presentations.

Blair, James C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Explaining Globally Inhomogeneous Future Changes in Monsoons Using Simple Moist Energy Diagnostics

Here, this study examines the annual cycle of monsoon precipitation simulated by models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), then uses moist energy diagnostics to explain globally inhomogeneous projected future changes. Rainy season characteristics are quantified using a consistent method across the globe. Model bias is shown to include rainy season onsets tens of days later than observed in some monsoon regions (India, Australia, and North America) and overly large summer precipitation in others (North America, South America, and southern Africa). Projected next-century changes include rainy season lengthening in the two largest Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Asia and central Sahel) and shortening in the two largest Southern Hemisphere regions (South America and southern Africa). Changes in the North American and Australian monsoons are less coherent across models. To understand these changes, relative moist static energy (MSE) is defined as the difference between local and tropical-mean surface air MSE. Future changes in relative MSE in each region correlate well with onset and demise date changes. Furthermore, Southern Hemisphere regions projected to undergo rainy season shortening are spanned by an increasing equator-to-pole MSE gradient, suggesting their rainfall will be increasingly inhibited by fluxes of dry extratropical air; Northern Hemisphere regions with projected lengthening of rainy seasons undergo little change in equator-to-pole MSE gradient. Thus, although model biases raise questions as to the reliability of some projections, these results suggest that globally inhomogeneous future changes in monsoon timing may be understood through simple measures of surface air MSE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Abstract Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state‐of‐the‐art knowledge in an internally self‐consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain‐specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low‐emissions SSP1‐1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long‐term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Emergent Constraint Approach for Refining Regional Climate Model Projections of Peak Flow Timing

Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) are unable to produce detailed runoff conditions at the basin scale. Assumptions are commonly made that dynamical downscaling can resolve this issue. However, given the large magnitude of the biases in downscaled GCMs, it is unclear whether such projections are credible. Here, we use an ensemble of dynamically downscaled GCMs to evaluate this question in the Sierra‐Cascade mountain range of the western US. Future projections across this region are characterized by earlier seasonal shifts in peak flow, but with substantial inter‐model uncertainty (−25 ± 34.75 days, 95% confidence interval (CI)). We apply the emergent constraint (EC) method for the first time to dynamically downscaled projections, leading to a 39% (−28.25 ± 20.75 days, 95% CI) uncertainty reduction in future peak flow timing. While the constrained results can differ from bias corrected projections, the EC is based on GCM biases in historical peak flow timing and has a strong physical underpinning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable workflow for evaluating and optimizing large language models

This work describes the improved workflow for evaluating open-source large language models (LLMs) for trustworthiness. The workflow facilitates the acquisition of LLMs, the generation of LLM responses, and the evaluation of the responses for their trustworthiness. As a use case, the workflow is employed to evaluate dense, quantized, and pruned Meta Llama3.1 LLMs for their truthfulness. The outcome of the project could set the stage for understanding and developing trustworthy models in the future projects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2016

Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

mortality↗

NASA NTRS2021

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modelling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain-specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850-1900, using an observationally-based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850-1900 and 1995-2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial in the long-term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

Climate↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA POWER: Providing Present and Future Climate Services Based on NASA Data for the Energy, Agricultural, and Sustainable Buildings Communities

NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the renewable energy, agricultural, and building heating/cooling design industries. POWER packages solar and meteorological data at various temporal levels from several NASA projects in a user friendly GIS-enabled web services system (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). Data users can access these data either through an intuitive data viewer, image services fully integrable with GIS analysis, connections in the cloud through an Amazon Web Services S3 Bucket, or fully customizable access through an API. Data provided by POWER has been successfully used by decision makers to support actions that address climate change. For example, POWER data has been used to remotely monitor solar array fields and integrated in a sizing tool for off-grid solar and storage systems. POWER data has also been coupled with key building decision tools to support design and retrofitting of building energy systems for energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gases. POWER is now developing climate services to provide time series of the projected future evolution of key quantities that interest our users, such as heating/cooling degree days, temperature, wind speed, and downwelling solar flux. We demonstrate the potential of the new climate services by presenting here a range of possible future changes in these quantities at different NASA centers across the continental United States. These data services are based on downscaled climate model data from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data set. We highlight the important insights that new climate services can provide. Our climate services will help our user communities quantify the impacts of climate change to support their key decisions in planning for the future, both inside and outside the Federal Government, especially for decisions in renewable energy and in building heating and cooling.

Bradley Hegyi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate

The sea level pressure variability in the North Pacific modulates the climate of the Arctic and surrounding continents, substantially impacting ecosystems and indigenous communities. Our analysis based on data from the CESM2 Large Ensemble and different Model Intercomparison Project datasets reveals that the interannual variability of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) gradually decouples from the contemporaneous atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific as external forcing increases in intensity in the future. Future projections show that the North Pacific-Arctic relationship during the fall season consistently weakens in magnitude until the end of this century, and in the 22nd and 23rd centuries, the relationship is negligible throughout the year. We show that under increased greenhouse gas emissions, the regional heat fluxes extensively control the Arctic temperature variability, and the strength of the projected North Pacific-Arctic relationship is strongly dependent on the Arctic sea ice extent. Our results suggest that under future warming, a strong coupling of Arctic SAT with the underlying ocean and a weakening of the meridional pressure gradient driven by an enhanced rate of sea ice retreat will weaken the interannual footprint of North Pacific variability on Arctic SAT. Therefore, we propose that the alarming rate of sea-ice decline over recent decades and projected in the near future could accelerate the rate of decoupling. Further, we suggest that mitigation strategies for the Arctic should focus on regional mechanisms operating on interannual and seasonal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA Global Hawk: Project Update and Future Plans

The NASA Global Hawk Project is supporting Earth Science research customers. These customers include: US Government agencies, civilian organizations, and universities. The combination of the Global Hawk's range, endurance, altitude, payload power, payload volume and payload weight capabilities separates the Global Hawk platform from all other platforms available to the science community. This presentation includes an overview of the concept of operations and an overview of the first two science campaigns. In addition the future science plans, using the NASA Global Hawk System, will be presented.

Naftel, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA Global Hawk: Project Overview and Future Plans

The NASA Global Hawk Project is supporting Earth Science research customers. These customers include: US Government agencies, civilian organizations, and universities. The combination of the Global Hawk's range, endurance, altitude, payload power, payload volume and payload weight capabilities separates the Global Hawk platform from all other platforms available to the science community. This presentation includes an overview of the concept of operations and an overview of the first two science campaigns. In addition the future science plans, using the NASA Global Hawk System, will be presented.

Naftel, Chris↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing the Impact of Future Weather Data on Energy Consumption in Weatherization Assistant

This study supports the mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), which aims to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings and reduce their total residential expenditures. Specifically, we examine how projected future climate conditions may affect residential building energy performance by integrating future weather data into the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT). Since WAP evaluates the cost-effectiveness of retrofit measures over lifespans of up to 30 years, accounting for evolving climate conditions is increasingly important. To reflect future household energy demands, this study replaces historically based Typical Meteorological Year (TMY3) weather inputs with Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) datasets derived from global climate model (GCM) projections. A simulation-based framework was established to enable NEAT analysis under future weather conditions. This workflow involves converting EPW-format weather files into JSON inputs compatible with NEAT and generating degree-hour metrics needed for load calculations. The fTMY dataset used in this study was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory through downscaling of six GCMs under different emission scenarios and covers the period from 2020 to 2100. In contrast, the TMY3 dataset is based on historical weather data from 1961 to 1990. Simulations were conducted for benchmark single-family prototype buildings across ASHRAE climate zones 1–7, which cover all regions of the U.S. except the subarctic Zone 8 in northern Alaska, evaluating both heating and cooling loads under TMY3 and fTMY conditions. Four foundation types were tested, while heating systems were standardized, as NEAT does not differentiate thermal energy load by HVAC system type in its load calculations. Results show that fTMY weather input consistently yield lower heating loads and higher cooling loads across most locations, aligning with expected climate warming trends. Notably, colder regions such as zones 6A, 6B, and 7 experience marked reductions in heating load, while warmer and transitional zones, such as 2A (Lufkin, TX) and 3C (San Francisco, CA), have substantial increases in cooling loads. Although this study does not directly assess the performance of retrofit measures under future climate conditions, it provides a critical foundation for doing so. By quantifying shifts in baseline (i.e., pre-retrofit case) energy loads between historical and future weather files, the study highlights the importance of integrating climate-responsive data into audit tools. These findings will inform future efforts to evaluate the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of weatherization measures under changing climate conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗

DOE OSTI2019

Integrated Solutions for Optimized Performance (ISOP) Final Technical Report

The goal of this project was to demonstrate technical feasibility of an integrated approach for deep energy retrofits by packaging innovative technologies with smart communicating controls that represent the next generation of energy efficiency. The integrated solutions for optimized performance (ISOP) package integrates (i) advanced lighting and plug load controls; (ii) intelligent daylight harvesting through automated self-powered shades and window films; (iii) advanced HVAC controls sequences (ASHRAE Guideline (GDL) 36); and (iv) fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) and continuous commissioning (CCx) using advanced analytics. These technologies address energy use across multiple building end uses that represent more than 60% of the energy consumption in all commercial buildings. The project was structured to be implemented over three budget periods: Budget Period 1 scope included site selection, project design, site-specific customization of technology packages, procurement of technologies, initiation of installation of technologies, the development of a measurement and verification plan and collection of pre-retrofit data collection. The first year go/no-go decision was based on securing host sites representing 250,000 sq. ft. of occupied operational spaces, savings analysis, technology procurement and initiation of installation. Budget Period 2 planned to complete technology installations and initiate data collection of post-retrofit performance data. The second year go/no-go was to be the completion of technology installations and commissioning, metering and data collecting to support the requirements laid out in site specific M&V plans. Budget Period 3 planned to collect and analyze post-retrofit performance data and provide data and reporting to support energy efficiency rebate programs. After the team completed activities planned for Budget Period 1, the team reached a Go/No-Go Decision Point. At that point, TRC recommended that DOE discontinue the project without prejudice due to challenges with securing demonstration sites to meet the full 250,000 sf of occupied operational spaces and DOE concurred. In Budget Period 1, the TRC team developed criteria to recruit and evaluate potential demonstration host sites. TRC worked with Princeton University, the project demonstration partner, to identify buildings on their campus as potential candidates for the demonstration. Following the selection of demonstration sites, the TRC team customized energy technology packages according to the needs and characteristics of each site. TRC defined technology specifications, identified vendors, and conducted analysis to estimate energy and cost savings potential. The project team then developed schedules for technology procurement processes and scheduled for installation at all selected demonstration sites. The project team worked with Princeton University and DOE to develop an approach to verify energy savings achieved through measurement and verification (M&V) 2.0 methods. Princeton University initiated open bids to procure the necessary materials and installation contractors. Bid results came back higher than estimates due to a couple of factors – lack of familiarity of the bidders with the proposed technologies and lack of local trained installers to execute the installation of these new measures. Due to the higher bids, projects no longer met the internal cost-effectiveness criteria used by Princeton to proceed with procurement of the full suite of technologies as proposed in ISOP. Princeton had already procured parts of the ISOP package as part of a campus-wide initiative for FDD and lighting retrofits, but with the higher costs for other ISOP components, Princeton could no longer commit to the full ISOP package on the selected sites. Based on this, the team reached the Go/No-Go decision point, where they decided not to proceed with the project. Princeton is separately installing portions of the ISOP package where they individually meet Princeton’s payback criteria but on a different schedule than would have been needed for the DOE ISOP project. The team has learned several lessons from project progress in the first budget period. The team will utilize these lessons in future projects, as should any team which proceeds with a project around the ISOP technology. The first lesson is that more information about the proposed sites is required earlier in the process (perhaps even at the proposal stage) in order to have a successful demonstration. Technical details not evident earlier in the process (such as the TLED limitations for ALCS) can derail project execution. The second lesson is that pricing of emerging technologies is highly variable due to lack of familiarity of local installers and distributor with the proposed technologies as well as alternate bids using products they were more familiar with, but that cost more than the ones proposed by TRC. Finally, the last major lesson is that the host site’s internal project criteria is of critical importance. Based on these higher installed costs and lack of an informed installer base for the products proposed for this project, the project does not meet Princeton’s simple payback goals of five years.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Developing Metrics to Evaluate the Skill and Credibility of Downscaling

In this project, our overarching goal was to evaluate the skill and credibility of statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques for reconstructing the historical climate record and projecting future climate change. This report summarizes our approach and accomplishments. In the first year of the project, the priority was to generate new data sets. For Year 2, the overall goal was to focus comparisons during the historical period and for a subset of variables, especially temperature and precipitation. In Year 3 and beyond, the focus was mainly on comparisons and metrics for future climate change simulations. To quantify the uncertainty associated with gridded dataset choice, the UCLA group compared eight gridded temperature datasets, examining climatologies, variability, and trends. The Scripps group completed statistical downscaling of NARR with the LOCA method, and UCLA and Scripps collaborated on a comparison of historical and end-of-century temperature and precipitation patterns over California from WRF, LOCA-WRF, and LOCA-Livneh. In addition to downscaling temperature and precipitation, the Scripps group has spent considerable time working on near-surface wind and humidity downscaling. The Santa Clara group assembled the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) for nine snow-dominated river basins draining the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada range and assessed the role of snow albedo feedback in their VIC simulations. The results will help inform future downscaling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Metrics to Evaluate the Skill and Credibility of Downscaling (Final Report)

In this project, our overarching goal was to evaluate the skill and credibility of statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques for reconstructing the historical climate record and projecting future climate change. This report summarizes our approach and accomplishments. In the first year of the project, the priority was to generate new data sets. For Year 2, the overall goal was to focus comparisons during the historical period and for a subset of variables, especially temperature and precipitation. In Year 3 and beyond, the focus was mainly on comparisons and metrics for future climate change simulations. To quantify the uncertainty associated with gridded dataset choice, the UCLA group compared eight gridded temperature datasets, examining climatologies, variability, and trends. The Scripps group completed statistical downscaling of NARR with the LOCA method, and UCLA and Scripps collaborated on a comparison of historical and end-of-century temperature and precipitation patterns over California from WRF, LOCA-WRF, and LOCA-Livneh. In addition to downscaling temperature and precipitation, the Scripps group has spent considerable time working on near-surface wind and humidity downscaling. The Santa Clara group assembled the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) for nine snow-dominated river basins draining the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada range and assessed the role of snow albedo feedback in their VIC simulations. The results will help inform future downscaling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗