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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2012

The Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: A Case Study over the Continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models

Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

Racherla, P. N.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tethys: A Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Global Water Demand

Humans use water for many important tasks, such as drinking, growing food, and cooling power plants. Since future water demands depend on complex global interactions between economic sectors (e.g., demand for wheat in one country causing demand for water to grow that wheat in another country), it is often modeled at coarse spatial and temporal scales as part of models that account for complex, multi-sector system dynamics. However, models that project future water availability typically simulate physical processes at much finer scales. Tethys enables integration between these kinds of models by downscaling region-scale water demand projections using sector-specific proxies and formulas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Climate Simulations With E3SM‐MMF

Simulations of the recent historical period from 1950 to 2014 are conducted with E3SM‐MMF, which uses an embedded 2D cloud resolving model that runs efficiently on GPUs in place of traditional parameterizations for cloud and turbulence. Analysis of the climate and variability reveal several aspects where E3SM‐MMF produces smaller biases compared to E3SMv2, including better agreement with the observed evolution of global mean surface temperature, although the representation of ENSO is too weak and fast. Three idealized abrupt CO 2 experiments were also conducted to assess climate sensitivity and feedbacks. These yield three estimates of effective climate sensitivity (4.38, 5.21, and 6.06 K), with a corresponding spread in the shortwave cloud feedbacks. These estimates are on the higher end of sensitivity estimates from CMIP ensembles, and the spread indicates substantial state‐dependent feedbacks. These results demonstrate how multiscale modeling framework (MMF) models can be used for climate relevant experiments and projections by leveraging modern GPU enabled computational platforms. The unique qualities of E3SM‐MMF shown in previous literature are largely still present, but various instances of reduced biases suggest that MMF models have utility in improving future projections.

E3SM↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Impacts of Rising Temperatures on Aircraft Takeoff Performance

Steadily rising mean and extreme temperatures as a result of climate change will likely impact the air transportation system over the coming decades. As air temperatures rise at constant pressure, air density declines, resulting in less lift generation by an aircraft wing at a given airspeed and potentially imposing a weight restriction on departing aircraft. This study presents a general model to project future weight restrictions across a fleet of aircraft with different takeoff weights operating at a variety of airports. We construct performance models for five common commercial aircraft and 19 major airports around the world and use projections of daily temperatures from the CMIP5 model suite under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios to calculate required hourly weight restriction. We find that on average, 10 - 30% of annual flights departing at the time of daily maximum temperature may require some weight restriction below their maximum takeoff weights, with mean restrictions ranging from 0.5 to 4% of total aircraft payload and fuel capacity by mid- to late century. Both mid-sized and large aircraft are affected, and airports with short runways and high temperatures, or those at high elevations, will see the largest impacts. Our results suggest that weight restriction may impose a non-trivial cost on airlines and impact aviation operations around the world and that adaptation may be required in aircraft design, airline schedules, and/or runway lengths.

air transportation system↗

NASA NTRS1988

Space Flight Operations Center local area network

The existing Mission Control and Computer Center at JPL will be replaced by the Space Flight Operations Center (SFOC). One part of the SFOC is the LAN-based distribution system. The purpose of the LAN is to distribute the processed data among the various elements of the SFOC. The SFOC LAN will provide a robust subsystem that will support the Magellan launch configuration and future project adaptation. Its capabilities include (1) a proven cable medium as the backbone for the entire network; (2) hardware components that are reliable, varied, and follow OSI standards; (3) accurate and detailed documentation for fault isolation and future expansion; and (4) proven monitoring and maintenance tools.

Goodman, Ross V.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Constellation Program Lessons Learned in the Quantification and Use of Aerodynamic Uncertainty

The NASA Constellation Program has worked for the past five years to develop a re- placement for the current Space Transportation System. Of the elements that form the Constellation Program, only two require databases that define aerodynamic environments and their respective uncertainty: the Ares launch vehicles and the Orion crew and launch abort vehicles. Teams were established within the Ares and Orion projects to provide repre- sentative aerodynamic models including both baseline values and quantified uncertainties. A technical team was also formed within the Constellation Program to facilitate integra- tion among the project elements. This paper is a summary of the collective experience of the three teams working with the quantification and use of uncertainty in aerodynamic environments: the Ares and Orion project teams as well as the Constellation integration team. Not all of the lessons learned discussed in this paper could be applied during the course of the program, but they are included in the hope of benefiting future projects.

Walker, Eric L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Seasonal Tidewater Glacier Terminus Oscillations Bias Multi-Decadal Projections of Ice Mass Change

Numerical, process-based simulations of tidewater glacier evolution are necessary to project future sea-level change under various climate scenarios. Previous work has shown that nonlinearities in tidewater glacier and ice stream dynamics can lead to biases in simulated ice mass change in the presence of noisy forcings. Ice sheet modeling projections that are used in the IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) utilize atmospheric and oceanic forcings at annual temporal resolution, omitting any higher frequency forcings. Here, we quantify the effect of seasonal (<1 year) tidewater glacier terminus oscillations on decadal-scale (30 years) mass change. We use an idealized geometry to mimic realistic tidewater glacier geometries and investigate the impact of the magnitude of seasonal oscillations, bed slope at the glacier terminus, and basal friction law. We find that omitting seasonal terminus motion results in biased mass change projections, with up to an 39% underestimate or 25% overestimate of mass loss when seasonality is neglected, depending on bed slope and magnitude of oscillations. The bias is most sensitive to the magnitude of the seasonal terminus oscillations and exhibits very little sensitivity to choice of friction law. Although omitting seasonal terminus motion may bias mass change projections of individual glaciers, further work is needed to investigate the impact on ice sheet mass change projections. In order to achieve this, seasonality in atmospheric and oceanic forcings must be adequately represented and observations of seasonal terminus positions and tidewater glacier thickness changes must be acquired to evaluate numerical models. Note: Zip folder contains all videos listed in the supplemental document and can be downloaded for viewing.

D. Felikson↗

NASA NTRS1991

The Generic Spacecraft Analyst Assistant (GenSAA): A tool for automating spacecraft monitoring with expert systems

Flight Operations Analysts (FOAs) in the Payload Operations Control Center (POCC) are responsible for monitoring a satellite's health and safety. As satellites become more complex and data rates increase, FOAs are quickly approaching a level of information saturation. The FOAs in the spacecraft control center for the COBE (Cosmic Background Explorer) satellite are currently using a fault isolation expert system named the Communications Link Expert Assistance Resource (CLEAR), to assist in isolating and correcting communications link faults. Due to the success of CLEAR and several other systems in the control center domain, many other monitoring and fault isolation expert systems will likely be developed to support control center operations during the early 1990s. To facilitate the development of these systems, a project was initiated to develop a domain specific tool, named the Generic Spacecraft Analyst Assistant (GenSAA). GenSAA will enable spacecraft analysts to easily build simple real-time expert systems that perform spacecraft monitoring and fault isolation functions. Lessons learned during the development of several expert systems at Goddard, thereby establishing the foundation of GenSAA's objectives and offering insights in how problems may be avoided in future project, are described. This is followed by a description of the capabilities, architecture, and usage of GenSAA along with a discussion of its application to future NASA missions.

Hughes, Peter M.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Mariner Venus-Mercury 1973 project. Volume 2: Extended mission-Mercury 2 and 3 encounters

The Mariner Venus/Mercury 1973 mission operations Extended Mission is described. The activities are summarized from shortly after Mercury I through the end of mission. The operational activities are reported by Mission Operations Systems functions providing a brief summary from each discipline. Based on these experiences recommendations for future projects are made.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electric Vehicles: A Sustainable Solution for Transportation Systems

The imperative for strong and rapid emissions reductions to mitigate global warming and enhance air quality necessitates a transition to net-zero emissions. This shift requires significant changes throughout the entire energy supply-demand ecosystems, tailored to various sectors. Transportation stands as the least-diversified energy sector and the largest source of U.S. GHG emissions. As the primary enabler for vehicle decarbonization when paired with clean electricity, electric vehicles (EVs) will play a pivotal role in the future. This talk summarizes current status of EV technologies and markets, future projections, and opportunities associated with a conversion to EV for all on-road vehicles. Moreover, EVs are poised to drive substantial growth in electricity demand and presents a unique opportunity to provide demand-side flexibility that is crucial for future renewable-dominated electricity systems. Smart integration of EVs can strengthen the grid, reducing costs and enhancing resilience.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Historical and Future Global Irrigation Energy Consumption by Fuel and Region

Irrigation energy use is a significant component of agricultural production costs, contributing directly to the energy and emissions intensity of crop production and ultimately to food prices. Understanding the existing structure of irrigation energy consumption help achieve food-energy-water security and environmental goals. We present a comprehensive global data set detailing country-level irrigation energy consumption, emphasizing the comparative use of electric, diesel, and emerging solar pumps. To our knowledge, no such data set exists. We draw from a literature review to develop a logistic transformed regression model to estimate the shares of fuel sources for irrigation across countries over historical years to construct a global data set of country-level irrigation energy consumption by multiple fuel sources. Additionally, we compare our estimates of irrigation energy use with agricultural energy use as reported by the International Energy Agency and other external sources. We then use this data to project future irrigation energy use with the Global Change Analysis Model, which is a multisector dynamics model, to showcase the usage of this data set. Projections under the reference scenario show a global shift in fuel types for irrigation pumping, while patterns vary across regions, with India and Pakistan leading in solar-powered irrigation growth and countries like the USA and China continuing to rely primarily on grid electricity. This data set provides a resource to understand the role of irrigation fuel choices within the broader energy sector, as well as the connected agricultural, land use, and water sectors under alternative future scenarios, enabling informed decision making toward efficient agricultural practices.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1994

Non-aqueous cleaning solvent substitution

A variety of environmental, safety, and health concerns exist over use of chlorinated and fluorinated cleaning solvents. Sandia National Laboratories, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, and the Kansas City Division of AlliedSignal have combined efforts to focus on finding alternative cleaning solvents and processes which are effective, environmentally safe, and compliant with local, state, and federal regulations. An alternative solvent has been identified, qualified, and implemented into production of complex electronic assemblies, where aqueous and semi-aqueous cleaning processes are not allowed. Extensive compatibility studies were performed with components, piece-parts, and materials. Electrical testing and accelerated aging were used to screen for detrimental, long-term effects. A terpene, d-limonene, was selected as the solvent of choice, and it was found to be compatible with the components and materials tested. A brief history of the overall project will be presented, along with representative cleaning efficiency results, compatibility results, and residual solvent data. The electronics industry is constantly searching for proven methods and environmentally-safe materials to use in manufacturing processes. The information in this presentation will provide another option to consider on future projects for applications requiring high levels of quality, reliability, and cleanliness from non-aqueous cleaning processes.

Meier, Gerald J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Advanced EVA Suit Camera System Development Project

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a new extra-vehicular activity (EVA) suit known as the Advanced EVA Z2 Suit. All of the improvements to the EVA Suit provide the opportunity to update the technology of the video imagery. My summer internship project involved improving the video streaming capabilities of the cameras that will be used on the Z2 Suit for data acquisition. To accomplish this, I familiarized myself with the architecture of the camera that is currently being tested to be able to make improvements on the design. Because there is a lot of benefit to saving space, power, and weight on the EVA suit, my job was to use Altium Design to start designing a much smaller and simplified interface board for the camera's microprocessor and external components. This involved checking datasheets of various components and checking signal connections to ensure that this architecture could be used for both the Z2 suit and potentially other future projects. The Orion spacecraft is a specific project that may benefit from this condensed camera interface design. The camera's physical placement on the suit also needed to be determined and tested so that image resolution can be maximized. Many of the options of the camera placement may be tested along with other future suit testing. There are multiple teams that work on different parts of the suit, so the camera's placement could directly affect their research or design. For this reason, a big part of my project was initiating contact with other branches and setting up multiple meetings to learn more about the pros and cons of the potential camera placements we are analyzing. Collaboration with the multiple teams working on the Advanced EVA Z2 Suit is absolutely necessary and these comparisons will be used as further progress is made for the overall suit design. This prototype will not be finished in time for the scheduled Z2 Suit testing, so my time was also spent creating a case for the original interface board that is already being used. This design is being done by use of Creo 2. Due to time constraints, I may not be able to complete the 3-D printing portion of this design, but I was able to use my knowledge of the interface board and Altium Design to help in the task. As a side project, I assisted another intern in selecting and programming a microprocessor to control linear actuators. These linear actuators will be used to move various increments of polyethylene for controlled radiation testing. For this, we began the software portion of the project using the Arduino's coding environment to control an Arduino Due and H-Bridge components. Along with the obvious learning of computer programs such as Altium Design and Creo 2, I also acquired more skills with networking and collaborating with others, being able to multi-task because of responsibilities to work on various projects, and how to set realistic goals in the work place. Like many internship projects, this project will be continued and improved, so I also had the chance to improve my organization and communication skills as I documented all of my meetings and research. As a result of my internship at JSC, I desire to continue a career with NASA, whether that be through another internship or possibly a co-op. I am excited to return to my university and continue my education in electrical engineering because of all of my experiences at JSC.

Mock, Kyla↗

NASA NTRS2021

Photoperiod Decelerates the Advance of Spring Phenology of Six Deciduous Tree Species under Climate Warming

Vegetation phenology in spring has substantially advanced under climate warming, consequently shifting the seasonality of ecosystem process and altering biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. However, whether and to what extent photoperiod (i.e., daylength) affects the phenological advancement is unclear, leading to large uncertainties in projecting future phenological changes. Here we examined the photoperiod effect on spring phenology at a regional scale using in situ observation of six deciduous tree species from the Pan European Phenological Network during 1980-2016. We disentangled the photoperiod effect from the temperature effect (i.e., forcing and chilling) by utilizing the unique topography of the northern Alps of Europe (i.e., varying daylength but uniform temperature distribution across latitudes) and examining phenological changes across latitudes. We found prominent photoperiod-induced shifts in spring leaf-out across latitudes (up to 1.7 daysper latitudinal degree). Photoperiod regulates spring phenology by delaying early leaf-out and advancing late leaf-out caused by temperature variations. Based on these findings, we proposed two phenological models that consider the photoperiod effect through different mechanisms and compared them with a chilling model. We found that photoperiod regulation would slow down the advance in spring leaf-out under projected climate warming and thus mitigate the increasing frost risk in spring that deciduous forests will face in the future. Our findings identify photoperiod as a critical but understudied factor influencing spring phenology, suggesting that the responses of terrestrial ecosystem processes to climate warming are likely to be overestimated without adequately considering the photoperiod effect.

Lin Meng↗

NASA NTRS2004

Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project environmental assurance program

This paper presents a comprehensive summary of the environmental assurance program for the MER project. A series of test and analysis metrics are generated. Selections of the numerous lessons that have been learned from implementation of the MER environmental assurance program are documented in this paper. They include both technical and programmatic lessons that would be helpful in improving implementation of the environmental program for future projects.

Hoffman, Alan R↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO 2 and H 2 O emissions and those with H 2 O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO 2 and H 2 O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

Zhuo, Zhihong [Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Cana↗

DOE OSTI2026

Power Lane County Electric Grid Handbook

In 2024, Lane Couty was selected to participate in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy to Community program. Through the program, National Laboratory researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and the National Laboratory of the Rockies provide three years of technical assistance to Lane County and their project partners: the Center for Rural Livelihoods, Springfield Utility Board, and Emerald People’s Utility District. The project, named Power Lane County, aims to improve local electric system affordability, reliability and resilience in the face of natural hazards and potentially rising loads. The Power Lane County Electric Grid Handbook establishes a foundational understanding of the energy landscape and electric grid in Lane County to inform community engagement, education, and analysis in future project phases. This document synthesizes public data and utility and stakeholder engagement, including utility interviews to give the reader a comprehensive view of the challenges facing Lane County's electric system and the opportunities to address them

Electricity↗