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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Formational History and Geomorphic Preservation of Sea Level Highstands Over the Last 150 ky Near Cape Canaveral, Florida, USA

Cape Canaveral, Florida, is perhaps one of the most important stretches of coastline in the United States of America (USA) due to its critical strategic role in the pursuit of space exploration and as the locus of advanced technological innovation. Due to its geographical setting, the entirety of Cape Canaveral, including its infrastructure, facilities, and important natural habitats (e.g., wetlands, estuaries and dunes) is vulnerable to coastal hazards such as continued sea level rise, storm surges, erosion and flooding. As such, accurate sea level characterization and coastal resiliency predictions are essential to promoting long-term coastal planning and sustainability in the area. This study aims to better understand the temporal and spatial evolution of this area with the purpose of more accurately documenting historical sea level fluctuations and calibrating more localized projections at this site. The Cape Canaveral coastline is situated on a passive margin mostly affected by oceanic (sea level change and wave impact) and atmospheric (aeolian) alteration. This sector is part of the east Florida coast microtidal (1.2 m) setting and low wave energy (1.2-1.6 m and 6.1-8.2 sec for average significant waves) regime and is defined by a well delineated set of beach ridge or cape systems. While the name “Cape Canaveral” is often used as a generic term to describe the geographic area, it is actually an amalgamation or complex of multiple preserved capes. The preserved Cape Canaveral beach ridge plain has largely documented the paleo-sea level highstand history over the last 150 ky. High-resolution mapping of these beach ridges is completed using GPS, LiDAR, aerial, as well as satellite imagery. In order to reconstruct the formational history of the Cape Kennedy Complex and the preserved record of sea level highstands, these detailed geomorphological observations are integrated with OSL and C14 dating techniques. The chronological framework delineated by the OSL dates coupled with detailed geomorphological mapping allows for the creation of high-resolution calibrated site-specific sea level curves that reflect the local environmental and geological conditions. This refinement has the potential to improve the understanding of past sea level variability which is crucial for predicting future trends and assessing the impacts on coastal regions such as Cape Canaveral.

geomorphology↗
NASA NTRS1976

Domestic and world trends affecting the future of aviation (1980 - 2000), appendix C

The results are presented of a study of variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological, and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis a series of scenarios is developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A scenario is presented which represents the manner in which events will most probably develop and their effect on the aviation industry.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2010

High-Speed Ring Bus

The high-speed ring bus at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) allows for future growth trends in spacecraft seen with future scientific missions. This innovation constitutes an enhancement of the 1393 bus as documented in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 1393-1999 standard for a spaceborne fiber-optic data bus. It allows for high-bandwidth and time synchronization of all nodes on the ring. The JPL ring bus allows for interconnection of active units with autonomous operation and increased fault handling at high bandwidths. It minimizes the flight software interface with an intelligent physical layer design that has few states to manage as well as simplified testability. The design will soon be documented in the AS-1393 standard (Serial Hi-Rel Ring Network for Aerospace Applications). The framework is designed for "Class A" spacecraft operation and provides redundant data paths. It is based on "fault containment regions" and "redundant functional regions (RFR)" and has a method for allocating cables that completely supports the redundancy in spacecraft design, allowing for a complete RFR to fail. This design reduces the mass of the bus by incorporating both the Control Unit and the Data Unit in the same hardware. The standard uses ATM (asynchronous transfer mode) packets, standardized by ITU-T, ANSI, ETSI, and the ATM Forum. The IEEE-1393 standard uses the UNI form of the packet and provides no protection for the data portion of the cell. The JPL design adds optional formatting to this data portion. This design extends fault protection beyond that of the interconnect. This includes adding protection to the data portion that is contained within the Bus Interface Units (BIUs) and by adding to the signal interface between the Data Host and the JPL 1393 Ring Bus. Data transfer on the ring bus does not involve a master or initiator. Following bus protocol, any BIU may transmit data on the ring whenever it has data received from its host. There is no centralized arbitration or bus granting. The JPL design provides for autonomous synchronization of the nodes on the ring bus. An address-synchronous latency adjust buffer (LAB) has been designed that cannot get out of synchronization and needs no external input. Also, a priority-driven cable selection behavior has been programmed into each unit on the ring bus. This makes the bus able to connect itself up, according to a maximum redundancy priority system, without the need for computer intervention at startup. Switching around a failed or switched-off unit is also autonomous. The JPL bus provides a map of all the active units for the host computer to read and use for fault management. With regard to timing, this enhanced bus recognizes coordinated timing on a spacecraft as critical and addresses this with a single source of absolute and relative time, which is broadcast to all units on the bus with synchronization maintained to the tens of nanoseconds. Each BIU consists of up to five programmable triggers, which may be programmed for synchronization of events within the spacecraft of instrument. All JPL-formatted data transmitted on the ring bus are automatically time-stamped.

Wysocky, Terry↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to colonize higher elevation lakes, only to be followed shortly by the emergence of fungal disease in the new habitats.

Tucker, Compton J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Andersen, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Current issues in atmospheric change

In response to questions about the effects of long-term, global-scale changes in the atmosphere raised in congressional hearings, a group of leading experts held a two-day workshop to survey the state of current knowledge about atmospheric changes and their implications. The review focuses on the sources, concentrations, and changes of those gases most directly linked to human activities, i.e., carbon dioxide, ozone, and the chlorofluorocarbons; the direct physical effects of rising concentrations of trace gases. The review discusses the uncertainties associated with the knowledge of current trends and possible future changes, including ozone trends and the Antarctic ozone hole, and the impacts of rising concentrations of trace gases.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From the Upper Troposphere Through the Stratosphere: How Satellite Measurements Help Us Decode the Past to Better Project the Future

Decades of observations of key chemical species are allowing us to more fully understand processes important to transport and composition from the upper troposphere through the stratosphere. This talk will focus on a few examples and how they are informing our understanding of variability, trends, and future projections. The growth of the Antarctic ozone hole (late 1970s – mid 1990s) caused a dynamical perturbation to the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation visible in ozone, one of our longest and best observed chemical constituents, and illustrates the connection between chemical change and the coupled radiative and dynamical response that challenges chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical stratosphere, however its impacts on stratospheric circulation and composition can be traced globally. The QBOs timing with respect to the seasonal cycle in each hemisphere is significant in understanding its impact on up to decadal scale variability. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which dominates tropical tropospheric interannual variability, also affects the stratosphere and its influence is visible in our growing record of tropospheric and stratospheric composition measurements. I will discuss how our knowledge of response has grown and how representation of these observed responses in CCMs is key both to understanding recent trends and to reducing uncertainty in future changes of composition.

Luke David Oman↗
NASA NTRS1978

Smart sensors in spacecraft - The impact and trends

The paper discusses the characteristics of smart sensors. It addresses the impact that the development of smart sensors will have on future spacecraft. In addition, future technology trends that will contribute to the development of smart sensors are assessed.

Breckenridge, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop−water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980−2009) and mid-century climates (2040−2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to ~31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

farm crops↗
NASA NTRS1975

Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

Friedman, N.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Martian lineaments from Mariner 6 and 7 photographs

Mariner 6 and 7 photographs were used to investigate the nature and importance of linear surface trends on Mars. Cross correlations of frequency-azimuth distributions of linear trends from different Mariner frames indicate that lineations not recognized as topographic features have a component of pseudoforms, probably introduced during digital reconstruction of the pictures. Similar statistical tests may aid in the analysis of surface trends from future satellites and space probes. The most reliable data were separated into photometrically defined provinces. Meridiani Sinus and Margaritifer Sinus display five major trends in common, which are interpreted as extensions of crustal weaknesses related to the enormous equatorial canyon revealed in Mariner 6 and 9 pictures. Alignments of crater wall segments generally match these trends and suggest structural control of crater plan. Crater chains, however, do not match these trends and are interpreted as secondary impacts. Rose diagrams of lineations in Deucalionis Regio exhibit much more complexity and are believed to reflect a better preserved or more complex geologic history.

Schultz, P. H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

QBO Responses to Increased CO2: The Roles of Convection and SSTs

Long-term changes to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Recent multimodel investigations (Richter et al. 2020a, Butchart et al. 2020) suggest that QBO amplitude will weaken in the future, but trends in QBO period and stability are unclear. Additionally, the parameterizations that generate the QBO in CMIP6 models vary greatly, and about half of CMIP6 models do not represent the QBO at all (Richter et al. 2020b). Tropical convection is likely to play a role in QBO trends, yet a majority of gravity wave parameterizations in QBO-resolving models are fixed and cannot respond to changes in convection. We consider future changes of the QBO using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2.2, which has a realistic QBO produced partly through use of a non-orographic gravity wave drag scheme that explicitly links lower stratospheric momentum fluxes to convection (Rind et al., 2014, 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). The experiments include historical integrations and abrupt increases in CO which we use to probe the roles of convection and SST feedbacks. Overall, both the QBO period and amplitude decrease in response to CO2, and our results link the period response to changes in convection and the amplitude response to changes in upwelling.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)↗
NASA NTRS1986

Computational mechanics - Advances and trends; Proceedings of the Session - Future directions of Computational Mechanics of the ASME Winter Annual Meeting, Anaheim, CA, Dec. 7-12, 1986

The papers contained in this volume provide an overview of the advances made in a number of aspects of computational mechanics, identify some of the anticipated industry needs in this area, discuss the opportunities provided by new hardware and parallel algorithms, and outline some of the current government programs in computational mechanics. Papers are included on advances and trends in parallel algorithms, supercomputers for engineering analysis, material modeling in nonlinear finite-element analysis, the Navier-Stokes computer, and future finite-element software systems.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Structural concept trends for commercial supersonic cruise aircraft design

Structural concept trends for future commercial supersonic transport aircraft are considered. Highlights, including the more important design conditions and requirements, of two studies are discussed. Knowledge of these design parameters, as determined through studies involving the application of flexible mathematical models, enabled inclusion of aeroelastic considerations in the structural-material concepts evaluation. The design trends and weight data of the previous contractual study of Mach 2.7 cruise aircraft were used as the basis for incorporating advanced materials and manufacturing approaches to the airframe for reduced weight and cost. Structural studies of design concepts employing advanced aluminum alloys, advanced composites, and advanced titanium alloy and manufacturing techniques are compared for a Mach 2.0 arrow-wing configuration concept. Appraisals of the impact of these new materials and manufacturing concepts to the airframe design are shown and compared. The research and development to validate the potential sources of weight and cost reduction identified as necessary to attain a viable advanced commercial supersonic transport are discussed.

Sakat, I. F.↗