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At least 181 records · Page 10

Evaluating 3 decades of precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin from a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract. Convection-permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have recently become tractable for applications at multi-decadal timescales. These types of models have tremendous utility for water resource studies, but better characterization of precipitation biases is needed, particularly for water-resource-critical mountain regions, where precipitation is highly variable in space, observations are sparse, and the societal water need is great. This study examines 34 years (1987–2020) of RCM precipitation from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; v3.8.1), using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS; CFSv2) initial and lateral boundary conditions and a 1 km × 1 km innermost grid spacing. The RCM is centered over the Upper Colorado River basin, with a focus on the high-elevation, 750 km2 East River watershed (ERW), where a variety of high-impact scientific activities are currently ongoing. Precipitation is compared against point observations (Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry or SNOTEL), gridded climate datasets (Newman, Livneh, and PRISM), and Bayesian reconstructions of watershed mean precipitation conditioned on streamflow and high-resolution snow remote-sensing products. We find that the cool-season precipitation percent error between WRF and 23 SNOTEL gauges has a low overall bias (x^ = 0.25 %, s = 13.63 %) and that WRF has a higher percent error during the warm season (x^ = 10.37 %, s = 12.79 %). Warm-season bias manifests as a high number of low-precipitation days, though the low-resolution or SNOTEL gauges limit some of the conclusions that can be drawn. Regional comparisons between WRF precipitation accumulation and three different gridded datasets show differences on the order of ± 20 %, particularly at the highest elevations and in keeping with findings from other studies. We find that WRF agrees slightly better with the Bayesian reconstruction of precipitation in the ERW compared to the gridded precipitation datasets, particularly when changing SNOTEL densities are taken into account. The conclusions are that the RCM reasonably captures orographic precipitation in this region and demonstrates that leveraging additional hydrologic information (streamflow and snow remote-sensing data) improves the ability to characterize biases in RCM precipitation fields. Error characteristics reported in this study are essential for leveraging the RCM model outputs for studies of past and future climates and water resource applications. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other watersheds and model configurations. Hourly 1 km × 1 km precipitation and other meteorological outputs from this dataset are publicly available and suitable for a wide variety of applications.

Geology↗

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global Requirements for Ecosystem Functioning, Carbon and Climate Feedbacks, Agricultural Management, and Water Resources

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them.

Fisher, Joshua B.↗

Apollo Crew Loads Data Mining

INTRODUCTION Human exposure data to dynamic loads in spaceflight are sparse not only because very few crewmembers have flown in space, but also because much of the historic data is no longer readily available. Earth and Moon landings of the Apollo missions are unique and valuable for understanding human tolerance in water landing conditions for both short-duration and long-duration crewmembers as well as informing crew tolerance in standing postures during planetary landings. The goal of this task was to find relevant Apollo data to better understand human tolerance in these scenarios, in order to apply this knowledge to future missions. METHODS The goal of this task was to recover time history data from dynamic phases of flight from crewed Apollo missions. The first phase of the task was to search available records at JSC and other centers to locate the appropriate records at the National Archives in Fort Worth, TX. Once the possible data locations were located, it was planned that one researcher would travel to the National Archives in Fort Worth, TX to collect the relevant Apollo data. Once the data was retrieved, they would be digitized for future use and evaluation, and archived within the Human Physiology, Performance, Protection, and Operations (H-3PO) laboratory within the Human Health and Performance Directorate. These data would be used to assess the feasibility and acceptability of current standards and vehicle design requirements for lunar and Mars missions. Additionally, any medical monitoring required, or physiological changes noted in crewmembers based on dynamic loads would be documented for future use. RESULTS Relevant records were found at Ft. Worth, TX and College Park, MD using the National Archives Online Catalog. In addition to the online catalog, an Archives staff member was able to share an additional inventory list of NASA JSC records held in Ft. Worth, TX. Due to COVID-19, NASA has only recently allowed non-mission essential travel. In addition, the National Archives has also been closed to the public since March 2020. Because of this, travel to the National Archives to search records there has not been possible. CONCLUSION The findings include collections at the National Archives at both Ft. Worth, TX and College Park, MD that could possibly hold the data we are looking for. Unfortunately, the descriptions of each collection are very broad. Though we are hopeful that relevant data is stored in one of these collections, we cannot be sure that we will find what we are looking for. At this time, it is not clear when the Archives will reopen to the public or when NASA will allow travel. Travel to the Archives has been postponed, and will be reassessed at a future date.

T Reiber↗

Instrumentation for Lunar Volatile Analysis

Understanding the available lunar resources is key to incorporating their availability into exploration architectures. Previous lunar missions have provided insight into the potential resources on the moon as an initial step enabling in-situ resource utilization (ISRU). Orbiting missions, such as Clementine and Lunar Prospector, have mapped the lunar polar region and found enhanced hydrogen signals on kilometer-scale resolution. The Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) mission provided the first direct measurement of water ice in a permanently shadowed region. Future missions will provide ground truth data to measure and quantify lunar volatiles.One approach to exploration capitalizes on commercial partnerships for Class D risk aware missions. Partnerships with commercial partners enable rapid design cycles, leveraging the investment of the commercial industry in instrument development. Modified Commercial off the Shelf (COTS) hardware can be utilized to enhance capabilities in exploration missions. The hardware under development at the Kennedy Space Center for availability within the Commercial Lunar Payload Services opportunities capitalizes on modified COTS, enabling an aggressive delivery schedule and low-cost development. The modified hardware has been integrated and tested in a thermal vacuum environment, with final flight modifications currently in work. The use of a modified COTS instruments will be discussed for space applications.

Captain, J.↗

Adsorption processes in spacecraft environmental control and life support systems

The environmental control and life support system on a spacecraft maintains a safe and comfortable environment in which the crew can live and work by supplying oxygen and water and by removing carbon dioxide, water vapor, and trace contaminants from cabin air. Although open-loop systems have been used successfully in the past for short-duration missions, the economics of current and future long-duration missions in space will make nearly complete recycling of air and water imperative. A variety of operations will be necessary to achieve the goal of nearly complete recycling. These include separation and reduction of carbon dioxide, removal of trace gas-phase contaminants, recovery and purification of humidity condensate, purification and polishing of wastewater streams, and others. Several of these can be performed totally or in part by adsorption processes. These processes are good candidates to perform separations and purifications in space due to their gravity independence, high reliability, relative high energy efficiency, design flexibility, technological maturity, and regenerative nature. For these reasons, adsorption has historically played a key role in life support on U.S. and Russian piloted spacecraft. Among the life support applications that can be achieved through use of adsorption technology are removal of trace contaminants and carbon dioxide from cabin air and recovery of potable water from waste streams. In each of these cases adsorption technology has been selected for use onboard the International Space Station. The requirements, science, and hardware for these applications are discussed. Human space exploration may eventually lead to construction of planetary habitats. These habitats may provide additional opportunities for use of adsorption processes, such as control of greenhouse gas composition, and may have different resources available to them, such as gases present in the planetary atmosphere. Separation and purification processes based on adsorption can be expected to continue to fulfill environmental control and life support needs on future missions.

Review, Tutorial↗

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

WASP-117 b: An Eccentric Hot Saturn as a Future Complex Chemistry Laboratory

We present spectral analysis of the transiting Saturn-mass planet WASP-117 b, observed with the G141 grism of the Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) Wide Field Camera 3. We reduce and fit the extracted spectrum from the raw transmission data using the open-source software Iraclis before performing a fully Bayesian retrieval using the publicly available analysis suite TauREx 3.0. We detect water vapor alongside a layer of fully opaque cloud, retrieving a terminator temperature of T{sub term}=833{sub -156}{sup +260} K. In order to quantify the statistical significance of this detection, we employ the atmospheric detectability index (ADI), deriving a value of ADI = 2.30, which provides positive but not strong evidence against the flat-line model. Due to the eccentric orbit of WASP-117 b, it is likely that chemical and mixing timescales oscillate throughout orbit due to the changing temperature, possibly allowing warmer chemistry to remain visible as the planet begins transit, despite the proximity of its point of ingress to apastron. We present simulated spectra of the planet as would be observed by the future space missions such as the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey and the James Webb Space Telescope and show that, despite not being able to probe such chemistry with current HST data, these observatories should make it possible in the not too distant future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Convergent evolution of tree hydraulic traits in Amazonian habitats: implications for community assemblage and vulnerability to drought

Amazonian droughts are increasing in frequency and severity. However, little is known about how this may influence species-specific vulnerability to drought across different ecosystem types. We measured 16 functional traits for 16 congeneric species from six families and eight genera restricted to floodplain, swamp, white-sand or plateau forests of Central Amazonia. We investigated whether habitat distributions can be explained by species hydraulic strategies, and if habitat specialists differ in their vulnerability to embolism that would make water transport difficult during drought periods. We found strong functional differences among species. Nonflooded species had higher wood specific gravity and lower stomatal density, whereas flooded species had wider vessels, and higher leaf and xylem hydraulic conductivity. The P 50 values (water potential at 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity) of nonflooded species were significantly more negative than flooded species. However, we found no differences in hydraulic safety margin among species, suggesting that all trees may be equally likely to experience hydraulic failure during severe droughts. Water availability imposes a strong selection leading to differentiation of plant hydraulic strategies among species and may underlie patterns of adaptive radiation in many tropical tree genera. Our results have important implications for modeling species distribution and resilience under future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Products from NASA Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC)

The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) is generating a series of land surface state (e.g., soil moisture and surface temperature) and flux (e.g., evaporation and sensible heat flux) products simulated by four land surface models (CLM, Mosaic, Noah and VIC). These products are now accessible at the Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), a component of the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Current data holdings include a set of 1.0 degree resolution data products from the four models, covering 1979 to the present; and a 0.25 degree data product from the Noah model, covering 2000 to the present. The products are in Gridded Binary (GRIB) format and can be accessed through a number of interfaces. New data formats (e.g., netCDF), temporal averaging and spatial subsetting will be available in the future. The HDISC has the capability to support more hydrology data products and more advanced analysis tools. The goal is to develop HDISC as a data and services portal that supports weather and climate forecast, and water and energy cycle research.

Fang, Hongliang↗

Monthly hydropower generation data for Western Canada to support Western-US interconnect power system studies

Hydroelectric power generation in Western Canada significantly contributes to power grid operations of the North American Western Interconnection through substantial generation, some of which is exported to the United States (U.S.). However, the lack of publicly available hydropower generation datasets poses challenges for future market projections and resource adequacy evaluations. We present a simulation-based monthly power system model-ready hydropower generation dataset for 110 facilities in British Columbia and Alberta from 1981 to 2019. These monthly hydropower generation estimates are developed from integrated hydrologic model simulations of runoff and reservoir-operated streamflow, followed by scaling that considers diversion inflow constraints based on hydropower water license information. To address the lack of comparable hydropower generation records, we conduct step-by-step evaluations for simulated runoff, regulated streamflow, and hydropower generation using available observations or estimates. The presented hydropower dataset aims to enhance the representation of hydropower resources in Western Canada, supporting power grid system studies for the Western Interconnection of the U.S. and Canada.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A biomass pretreatment using cellulose-derived solvent Cyrene

Despite only recently becoming available in the quantities required for solvent usage, the cellulose-derived solvent, named Cyrene, has gained significant attention in green chemistry in recent years. To fulfill the sustainability criteria of future biorefineries, a novel renewable biomass pretreatment using Cyrene and water was developed for the first time. Results showed that Cyrene has high potential as a green pretreatment solvent in terms of lignin fractionation/recovery and sugar release in the follow-up enzymatic hydrolysis. The mechanism of this pretreatment was revealed by investigating the structural characteristics of pretreated biomass, and the recovered lignin was also fully characterized to assess its valorization potential. Results indicated that Cyrene pretreatment could be performed at a mild condition (120 °C) to reduce the lignin condensation and the cleavage of β-O-4 linkages without compromising lignin removal and the following sugar platform. The successful utilization of this cellulose-derived solvent in pretreatment will further contribute to the realization of a “closed-loop” biorefinery process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

How Well Do U.S. Western Water Markets Convey Economic Information?

An efficient market implies that potential gains from trade are fully captured. Achieving this requires a well-functioning market where prices reflect all available information. In the case of water rights markets, this implies that the permanent water rights transfer price reflects the sum of discounted returns to this asset (i.e., the lease price), the market interest rate, and a risk premium that reflects potential future water scarcity. Here, the purpose of this study is to assess the efficiency of western U.S. water markets by using the asset pricing model to measure how well prices reflect long-run returns to permanent water rights.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

Mankin, Justin S.↗

Application of future remote sensing systems to irrigation

Area estimates of irrigated crops and knowledge of crop type are required for modeling water consumption to assist farmers, rangers, and agricultural consultants in scheduling irrigation for distributed management of crop yields. Information on canopy physiology and soil moisture status on a spatial basis is potentially available from remote sensors, so the questions to be addressed relate to: (1) timing (data frequency, instantaneous and integrated measurement); and scheduling (widely distributed spatial demands); (2) spatial resolution; (3) radiometric and geometric accuracy and geoencoding; and (4) information/data distribution. This latter should be overnight, with no central storage, onsite capture, and low cost.

Miller, L. D.↗

Integrated protonic ceramic electrochemical cell for sustainable energy economy using water-energy nexus framework

Reliance on fossil fuels will continue for the next decades even though there are global pushes away from it to mitigate the overarching climate challenge, most especially by its highest consumers and availability. While there is a hastening global shift away from fossil fuel, integrating its assets into this technology helps limit the risk and future losses of stranded assets and reduce the cost of investment in the new technologies. Moreover, the generation of electricity from intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind has witnessed a significant surge in recent years, leading to a pressing demand for practical energy storage systems. Electrical energy storage is anticipated to play a pivotal role in the future global energy system, facilitating load-leveling operations to support the greater integration of renewable and distributed generation. Reversible electrochemical cells (RECs) offer a promising option for addressing the fossil fuel assets integration and energy storage challenges through the interconversion between electrical and chemical energy and concurrent utilizing carbon emission. In their electrolysis mode, the RECs convert electricity into durable, storable, and portable valuable chemical fuels such as syngas and methane. Conversely, the produced chemical fuels can be used as reactants in the fuel cell mode to generate electricity on demand with minimal (hydrocarbons) or zero when H2 or NH3 is used emissions. However, a challenging goal for this type of technology remains to achieve optimal operation and high roundtrip efficiencies, which has hindered the deployment of previous electrochemical cells. This dissertation demonstrates how reversible protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (RePCECs) can be integrated with fossil fuel power plants and renewable energy sources as a potential energy storage system. In this work, integrated RePCEC systems are designed and examined using computational modeling at scales to determine appropriate system configurations and operating conditions that achieve high roundtrip efficiencies. Cell level design of the PCEC is the first approach, several cells are assembled for the stack level model that is integrated into combined cycle powerplant and solar photovoltaic for the system level model. After critical literature review, this answered the operational and integration research questions proposed to address these challenges. The designed systems perform two functions, utilizing captured CO2 and storing renewable energy through co-electrolysis of steam and CO2. The co-electrolysis reaction involves endothermic water electrolysis and exothermic methanation reaction. To enhance high roundtrip efficiency, there is a need for thermal balance and management in the electrolysis mode. This involves operating the RePCEC stack under conditions that favor methane production to balance out heat needed by water electrolysis, it crucial for the RePCEC system operation. Methanation is enhanced by low temperatures. Leveraging on fabricated BCZYYb-electrolyte RePCEC, the cell model designed revealed that the optimum temperature for methane production is 450℃ at atmospheric pressure. Thus, to achieve optimum system performance, operating in the temperature range 450-525℃ is recommended at the given configuration, combining between the optimum temperature for methane production and temperature for the optimum stack roundtrip efficiency. Configuration with carbon capture system and purge stream is the optimum configuration from the seven conceptualized and evaluated. The modeling outcomes include a thermodynamic examination of integrated RePCEC systems, calibration of cell and stack level models, and steady-state simulation and integration into a 600MW combined cycle power plant retrofitted with two two-stage membrane-based carbon capture system and a wastewater treatment and recovery unit. At 100% powerplant loading, the stack and system roundtrip efficiencies are 72% and 51.37% respectively. Adding a purge stream for produced hydrogen at the system downstream improves the efficiencies to 74 and 55.48% respectively. At atmospheric pressure and 525℃, the system model suggests that a stack roundtrip of 82% is achievable, and overall system efficiency increases by reducing the energy consumption by the balance of plant components for steam generation and storage. Economic analysis of the process gives levelized cost of methane as $2.24/MMBtu lower than the conventional production route that range between $3.46/MMBtu and $9.85/MMBtu. The lifecycle analysis shows that the global warming potential for the production of methane and hydrogen from the RePCEC system is 3.83 kg CO2 eq which is lower than 9.35 kg CO2 eq emission during steam methane reforming for hydrogen production. This answered both the environmental and economic concerns in the raised research question. The proposed RePCEC configuration and analysis carried out in this dissertation to address the surge in renewable energy and challenges with PCEC technology hold significant potential in achieving large-scale energy storage while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. These advancements, coupled with suitable governmental policies and incentive programs, have the potential to economically disrupt the natural gas industries by using RePCEC systems for methane production, thereby making them more favorable for eventual implementation and commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Challenges and Opportunities for Floating Offshore Wind Energy in Ultradeep Waters of the Central Atlantic

This study, funded under an interagency agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), is intended to provide BOEM with key information to inform their decision making about current and future leasing in the Central Atlantic region of the United States. The report will also benefit state governments, developers, research institutions, and the public which are seeking technical and market-based information about the unique aspects of the offshore wind energy development along the outer continental shelf of the Central Atlantic region of the United States. The study provides a broad top-level assessment of the key challenges and opportunities that are unique to offshore wind energy development in the Central Atlantic region. It focuses on BOEM's Central-Atlantic region Call areas. The research is based on the most current technology, deployment, and stakeholder information available to NREL. The topics include assessments of the physical environment, current leasing status and major stakeholder issues, state and federal energy policy, an assessment of future leasing requirements based on state targets, status and limitations of the technology, and supply chain status. The primary intent is to inform the readers about the prospects for deploying offshore wind in the designated deep water Call areas, E and F, identified by BOEM. The report makes recommendations regarding development in these regions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗