Falling Snow Radiative Effects Enhance the Global Warming Response of the Tropical Pacific Atmosphere
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Chao‐An Chen↗
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Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015
Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.
emissions↗
Space Weather Nowcasting of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety
There is a growing concern for the health and safety of commercial aircrew and passengers due to their exposure to ionizing radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET), particularly at high latitudes. The International Commission of Radiobiological Protection (ICRP), the EPA, and the FAA consider the crews of commercial aircraft as radiation workers. During solar energetic particle (SEP) events, radiation exposure can exceed annual limits, and the number of serious health effects is expected to be quite high if precautions are not taken. There is a need for a capability to monitor the real-time, global background radiations levels, from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), at commercial airline altitudes and to provide analytical input for airline operations decisions for altering flight paths and altitudes for the mitigation and reduction of radiation exposure levels during a SEP event. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is new initiative to provide a global, real-time radiation dosimetry package for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. The NAIRAS model brings to bear the best available suite of Sun-Earth observations and models for simulating the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. Observations are utilized from ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the METO analysis), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the GCR and SEP energy flux distributions for transport and dosimetry simulations. Dose rates are calculated using the parametric AIR (Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation) model and the physics-based HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) code. Empirical models of the near-Earth radiation environment (GCR/SEP energy flux distributions and geomagnetic cut-off rigidity) are benchmarked against the physics-based CMIT (Coupled Magnetosphere- Ionosphere-Thermosphere) and SEP-trajectory models.
Mertens, Christopher J.↗
Quantifying the Contribution of Microbursts to Global Electron Loss in the Radiation Belts
We use the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer to explore the relationship between microbursts and global flux decay of electrons from the outer Van Allen belt during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms. We investigate the correlation between microbursts and global electron loss in each of the quasi‐trapped (drift loss cone), stably trapped, and untrapped electron (bounce loss cone) populations. For the quasi‐trapped electrons, we separately classify the storms as driven by coronal mass ejections or corotating interaction regions and explore their connection to microburst loss. We find that the decay lifetime of electron fluxes, that is, e‐folding times of macroscopic fluxes in the recovery phase is correlated with strong microburst activity. That is, when the microburst activity is high, global flux decay times are short, and vice versa, suggesting a cross‐scale coupling between microloss and macroloss phenomena. Furthermore, we find that the microburst to global loss coupling is predominant in the quasi‐trapped population of radiation belt electrons while having negligible influence on the untrapped and stably trapped populations. We find that microburst activity during storms driven by coronal mass ejections is coupled more strongly with global flux decay as compared with corotating interaction regions. In addition, we find that distance from the plasmapause is likely a better indicator of microburst location than L‐shell, with most microbursts occurring ~0.5–2.0 L from the model plasmapause location.
Greeley, A. D.↗
Global mean long-wave cloud radiative forcing derived from HIRS2/MSU
Using a physical approach, global ten-day mean long-wave cloud radiative forcing has been derived from satellite data for a period from January 1979 to May 1981. This forcing shows small (2 to 3 W/sq m) variations for diurnal, seasonal, and interannual time scales, even though the detailed structure of cloud fields may have considerable temporal and spatial variability. The amplitude of variations of the hemispheric mean is much larger than the global mean; the largest variation is over land areas (20 W/sq m) of the Southern Hemisphere, and the smallest variation is over the ocean (6 W/wq m) of the Northern Hemisphere.
Wu, Man L. C.↗
TPSAS-NF1676L-11678-DND
Cloud vertical profiles retrieved from CALIPSO and CloudSat data provide additional information that greatly improves the estimate of atmospheric radiative heating rates and potentially improves the estimate of the global surface radiation budget. To utilize CALIPSO and CloudSat cloud vertical profiles, we combined their profiles and generated merged profiles. Weused the merged cloud profiles and MODIS derived cloud profiles by the CERES cloud algorithm in irradiance computations. In this study, the improvement of the irradiance by CALIPSO and CloudSat derived merged cloud vertical profiles is evaluated by comparing modeled irradiances with and without merged cloud profiles. Because of lower cloud base heights provided by the merged profiles compared with cloud base heights derived from an empirical formula using the MODIS derived cloud top height and optical thickness, the global annual mean surface longwave downward irradiance increases approximately by 7 Wm-2. While CALIPSO version 3 data have not been incorporated in the irradiance computation and the effect of the new CALIPSO data needs to be assessed, a comparison with surface observations suggests an improvement of surface downward longwave irradiance computations. The surface downward longwave irradiance computed with CALIPSO and CloudSat merged clouds agrees better with surface observations than the irradiance computed with MODIS only does. The bias difference over ARM SGP sites with 2 years of data decreases from -5 W m-2to -2 Wm-2, and it decreases from -9 Wm-2to no bias over polar validation sites. The result suggests that CALIPSO CloudSat derived merged clouds significantly improve surface longwave irradiance estimates once they are combined with MODIS derived cloud properties and with temperature and humidity profiles from reanalysis.
Seiji Kato↗
Bridging New Observational Capabilities and Process-Level Simulation: Insights into Aerosol Roles in the Earth System
The spatial distribution of ambient aerosol particles significantly impacts aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in global anthropogenic radiative forcing estimations. However, the atmospheric boundary layer and lower free troposphere have not been adequately sampled in terms of spatiotemporal resolution, hindering a comprehensive characterization of various atmospheric processes and impeding our understanding of the Earth system. To address this research data gap, we have leveraged the development of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and advanced measurement techniques to obtain mesoscale spatial data on aerosol microphysical and optical properties around the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Our study also benefits from state-of-the-art laboratory facilities that include three-dimensional molecular imaging techniques enabled by secondary ion mass spectrometry and nanogram-level chemical composition analysis via micronebulization aerosol mass spectrometry. Through our study, we have developed a framework for observation–modeling integration, enabling an examination of how various assumptions about the organic–inorganic components mixing state, inferred from chemical analysis, affect clouds and radiation in observation-constrained model simulations. By integrating observational constraints (derived from offline chemical analysis of the aerosol surface using collected samples) with in situ UAS observations, we have identified a prominent role of organic-enriched nanometer layers located at the surface of aerosol particles in determining profiles of aerosol optical and hygroscopic properties over the SGP observatory. Furthermore, we have improved the agreement between predicted clouds and ground-based cloud lidar measurements. This UAS–model–laboratory integration exemplifies how these new advanced capabilities can significantly enhance our understanding of aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Light Absorption by Brown Carbon over the South-East Atlantic Ocean
Biomass burning emissions often contain brown carbon (BrC), which represents a large family of light-absorbing organics that is chemically complex and therefore difficult to estimate their absorption of incoming solar radiation, resulting in large uncertainties in the estimation of the global direct radiative effect of aerosols. Here we investigate the contribution of BrC to the total light absorption of biomass burning aerosols over the South-East Atlantic Ocean with different optical models utilizing a suite of airborne measurements from the ORACLES 2018 campaign by introducing an effective refractive index of black carbon (BC), m eBC = n eBC +ik eBC , that accounts for all possible absorbing components at 660 nm wavelength to facilitate the attribution of absorption at shorter wavelengths. Most values of the imaginary part of the refractive index, k eBC , were larger than those commonly used for BC from biomass burning emissions, suggesting contributions from absorbers beyond BC at 660 nm. The TEM-EDX single particle analysis further suggests that these long-wavelength absorbers might include iron oxides, as iron is found to be present only when large values of k eBC are derived. Using this effective BC refractive index, we find that the contribution of BrC to the total absorption at 470 nm (R BrC,470 ) ranges from ~5–15 %, with the organic aerosol mass absorption coefficient (MAC OA,470 ) at this wavelength ranging from 0.25 ± 0.34 m 2 g -1 to 0.43 ± 0.12 m 2 g -1 . The core-shell model yielded much higher estimates of MAC OA,470 and R BrC,470 than homogeneous mixing models, underscoring the importance of model treatment. Another key finding was that estimates of the BrC contribution at 470 nm from the commonly used AAE (absorption Ångström exponent) attribution method (< 5 %) are much lower than the BrC contribution estimates (R BrC,470 ) using our new methodology that accounts for contributions from both BrC and non-carbonaceous, long-wavelength absorbers, such as magnetite. Thus, it is recommended that application of any optical properties-based attribution method use absorption coefficients at the longest possible wavelength to minimize the influence of BrC at the long wavelength and to account for potential contributions from other absorbing materials.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global Dust Cycle and Direct Radiative Effect in E3SM Version 1: Impact of Increasing Model Resolution
Quantification of dust aerosols in Earth System Models (ESMs) has important implications for water cycle and biogeochemistry studies. This study examines the global life cycle and direct radiative effects (DREs) of dust in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the impact of increasing model resolution both horizontally and vertically. The default 1° E3SMv1 captures the spatial and temporal variability in the observed dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) reasonably well, but overpredicts dust absorption in the shortwave (SW). Simulations underestimate the dust vertical and long-range transport, compared with the satellite dust extinction profiles. After updating dust refractive indices and correcting for a bias in partitioning size-segregated emissions, both SW cooling and longwave (LW) warming of dust simulated by E3SMv1 are increased and agree better with other recent studies. The estimated net dust DRE of −0.42 Wm−2 represents a stronger cooling effect than the observationally based estimate −0.2 Wm−2 (−0.48 to +0.2), due to a smaller LW warming. Constrained by a global mean DAOD, model sensitivity studies of increasing horizontal and vertical resolution show strong influences on the simulated global dust burden and lifetime primarily through the change of dust dry deposition rate; there are also remarkable differences in simulated spatial distributions of DAOD, DRE, and deposition fluxes. Thus, constraining the global DAOD is insufficient for accurate representation of dust climate effects, especially in transitioning to higher- or variable-resolution ESMs. Better observational constraints of dust vertical profiles, dry deposition, size, and LW properties are needed.
dust aerosol↗
Global Dust Cycle and Direct Radiative Effect in E3SM Version 1: Impact of Increasing Model Resolution
Quantification of dust aerosols in Earth System Models (ESMs) has important implications for water cycle and biogeochemistry studies. This study examines the global life cycle and direct radiative effects (DREs) of dust in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the impact of increasing model resolution both horizontally and vertically. The default 1° E3SMv1 captures the spatial and temporal variability in the observed dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) reasonably well, but overpredicts dust absorption in the shortwave (SW). Simulations underestimate the dust vertical and long-range transport, compared with the satellite dust extinction profiles. After updating dust refractive indices and correcting for a bias in partitioning size-segregated emissions, both SW cooling and longwave (LW) warming of dust simulated by E3SMv1 are increased and agree better with other recent studies. The estimated net dust DRE of –0.42 Wm –2 represents a stronger cooling effect than the observationally based estimate –0.2 Wm –2 (–0.48 to +0.2), due to a smaller LW warming. Constrained by a global mean DAOD, model sensitivity studies of increasing horizontal and vertical resolution show strong influences on the simulated global dust burden and lifetime primarily through the change of dust dry deposition rate; there are also remarkable differences in simulated spatial distributions of DAOD, DRE, and deposition fluxes. Thus, constraining the global DAOD is insufficient for accurate representation of dust climate effects, especially in transitioning to higher- or variable-resolution ESMs. Better observational constraints of dust vertical profiles, dry deposition, size, and LW properties are needed.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption
On 15 January 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO 2 . In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models as part of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison Project. Our results show a good model agreement over the climatic outcomes of the eruption, overall indicating a significant negative radiative forcing from the Hunga eruption. The multi-model mean of global instantaneous radiative forcing averaged over 2022–2023 is estimated at −0.19 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), and −0.16 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the surface. Simulations with free-running meteorology and climatological sea surface temperatures and sea ice yield a global mean TOA forcing of −0.14 ± 0.10 W m −2 across two models for the first 2 years, decreasing to −0.09 ± 0.10 W m −2 on average between 2022 and 2027. However, these global values may be underestimated by about 50 %, considering that recent SO 2 injection retrievals suggest nearly twice the amount than the 0.5 Tg-SO 2 used in the protocol. We also find that the contribution from added stratospheric water vapor is minimal and that the injected SO 2 and the resulting formation of stratospheric sulfate dominate the radiative forcing. However, water vapor played a key role in the initial aerosol growth, leading to a stronger negative radiative forcing during the first 6 months after the eruption compared to simulations without water vapor co-injection.
Geosciences↗
Model evaluation of the radiative and temperature effects of the ozone content changes in the global atmosphere of 1980's
Radiative and temperature effects of the observed ozone and greenhouse gas atmospheric content changes in 1980 - 1990 are evaluated using the two-dimensional energy balance radiative-convective model of the zonally and annually averaged troposphere and stratosphere. Calculated radiative flux changes for standard conditions quantitatively agree with their estimates in WMO/UNEP 1991 review. Model estimates indicate rather small influence of ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere on the greenhouse tropospheric warming rate, being more significant in the non-tropical Southern Hemisphere. The calculated cooling of the lower stratosphere is close to the observed temperature trends there in the last decade.
Karol, Igor L.↗
Anatomy of a mega‐radiation: Biogeography and niche evolution in Astragalus
Premise Astragalus (Fabaceae), with more than 3000 species, represents a globally successful radiation of morphologically highly similar species predominant across the northern hemisphere. It has attracted attention from systematists and biogeographers, who have asked what factors might be behind the extraordinary diversity of this important arid-adapted clade and what sets it apart from close relatives with far less species richness. Methods Here, for the first time using extensive phylogenetic sampling, we asked whether (1) Astragalus is uniquely characterized by bursts of radiation or whether diversification instead is uniform and no different from closely related taxa. Then we tested whether the species diversity of Astragalus is attributable specifically to its predilection for (2) cold and arid habitats, (3) particular soils, or to (4) chromosome evolution. Finally, we tested (5) whether Astragalus originated in central Asia as proposed and (6) whether niche evolutionary shifts were subsequently associated with the colonization of other continents. Results Our results point to the importance of heterogeneity in the diversification of Astragalus, with upshifts associated with the earliest divergences but not strongly tied to any abiotic factor or biogeographic regionalization tested here. The only potential correlate with diversification we identified was chromosome number. Biogeographic shifts have a strong association with the abiotic environment and highlight the importance of central Asia as a biogeographic gateway. Conclusions Our investigation shows the importance of phylogenetic and evolutionary studies of logistically challenging “mega-radiations.” Our findings reject any simple key innovation behind high diversity and underline the often nuanced, multifactorial processes leading to species-rich clades.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Using Satellite Observations of Cloud Vertical Distribution to Improve Global Model Estimates of Cloud Radiative Effect on Key Tropospheric Oxidants
Clouds directly affect tropospheric photochemistry through modification of solar radiation that determines photolysis frequencies. This effect is an important component of global tropospheric chemistry-climate interaction, and its understanding is thus essential for predicting the feedback of climate change on tropospheric chemistry.
Liu, Hongyu↗
Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing
Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, etc.) dominate the long term climate evolution in the simulations. To better constrain the magnitude and uncertainties of irrigation-forced climate anomalies, irrigation should therefore be considered as another important anthropogenic climate forcing in the next generation of historical climate simulations and multimodel assessments.
simulation↗
Strong Local Evaporative Cooling Over Land Due to Atmospheric Aerosols
Abstract Aerosols can enhance terrestrial productivity through increased absorption of solar radiation by the shaded portion of the plant canopy—the diffuse radiation fertilization effect. Although this process can, in principle, alter surface evaporation due to the coupling between plant water loss and carbon uptake, with the potential to change the surface temperature, aerosol‐climate interactions have been traditionally viewed in light of the radiative effects within the atmosphere. Here, we develop a modeling framework that combines global atmosphere and land model simulations with a conceptual diagnostic tool to investigate these interactions from a surface energy budget perspective. Aerosols increase the terrestrial evaporative fraction, or the portion of net incoming energy consumed by evaporation, by over 4% globally and as much as ∼40% regionally. The main mechanism for this is the increase in energy allocation from sensible to latent heat due to global dimming (reduction in global shortwave radiation) and slightly augmented by diffuse radiation fertilization. In regions with moderately dense vegetation (leaf area index >2), the local surface cooling response to aerosols is dominated by this evaporative pathway, not the reduction in incident radiation. Diffuse radiation fertilization alone has a stronger impact on gross primary productivity (+2.18 Pg C y −1 or +1.8%) than on land evaporation (+0.18 W m −2 or +0.48%) and surface temperature (−0.01 K). Our results suggest that it is important for land surface models to distinguish between quantity (change in total magnitude) and quality (change in diffuse fraction) of radiative forcing for properly simulating surface climate.
Chakraborty, TC↗
Observed Sensitivity of Low-Cloud Radiative Effects to Meteorological Perturbations over the Global Oceans
Understanding how marine low clouds and their radiative effects respond to changing meteorological conditions is crucial to constrain low-cloud feedbacks to greenhouse warming and internal climate variability. In this paper, we use observations to quantify the low-cloud radiative response to meteorological perturbations over the global oceans to shed light on physical processes governing low-cloud and planetary radiation budget variability in different climate regimes. We assess the independent effect of perturbations in sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, horizontal surface temperature advection, 700-hPa relative humidity, 700-hPa vertical velocity, and near-surface wind speed. Stronger inversions and stronger cold advection greatly enhance low-level cloudiness and planetary albedo in eastern ocean stratocumulus and midlatitude regimes. Warming of the sea surface drives pronounced reductions of eastern ocean stratocumulus cloud amount and optical depth, and hence reflectivity, but has a weaker and more variable impact on low clouds in the tropics and middle latitudes. By reducing entrainment drying, higher free-tropospheric relative humidity enhances low-level cloudiness. At low latitudes, where cold advection destabilizes the boundary layer, stronger winds enhance low-level cloudiness; by contrast, wind speed variations have weak influence at midlatitudes where warm advection frequently stabilizes the marine boundary layer, thus inhibiting vertical mixing. These observational constraints provide a framework for understanding and evaluating marine low-cloud feedbacks and their simulation by models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Historical (1850‐2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS Modele2.1 Contribution to CMIP6
The Earth’s climate is rapidly changing. Over the past centuries, aerosols, via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. The multi-century anthropogenic aerosol cooling effect prevented present-day climate from reaching even higher surface air temperatures and subsequent more dramatic climate impacts. Trends in aerosol concentrations and optical depth show that in many polluted regions such as Europe and the United States of America, aerosol precursor emissions decreased back to levels of the 1950s. More recent polluting countries such as China may have reached a turning point in recent years as well, while India still follows an upward trend. Here we study aerosol trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the GISS ModelE2.1 climate model using a fully coupled atmosphere composition onfiguration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based (OMA) aerosol module. Results show that whether global aerosol radiative forcing is already declining depends on the aerosol scheme used. Using the aerosol microphysical scheme, where the aerosol system reacts more strongly to the trend in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, global peak direct aerosol forcing was reached in the 1980’s, whereas the mass-based scheme simulates peak direct aerosol forcing around 2010.
Aerosol forcing↗