Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “global sensitivity analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Research Review, 1983

The Global Modeling and Simulation Branch (GMSB) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is engaged in general circulation modeling studies related to global atmospheric and oceanographic research. The research activities discussed are organized into two disciplines: Global Weather/Observing Systems and Climate/Ocean-Air Interactions. The Global Weather activities are grouped in four areas: (1) Analysis and Forecast Studies, (2) Satellite Observing Systems, (3) Analysis and Model Development, (4) Atmospheric Dynamics and Diagnostic Studies. The GLAS Analysis/Forecast/Retrieval System was applied to both FGGE and post FGGE periods. The resulting analyses have already been used in a large number of theoretical studies of atmospheric dynamics, forecast impact studies and development of new or improved algorithms for the utilization of satellite data. Ocean studies have focused on the analysis of long-term global sea surface temperature data, for use in the study of the response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies. Climate research has concentrated on the simulation of global cloudiness, and on the sensitivities of the climate to sea surface temperature and ground wetness anomalies.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2019

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

T B Richardson↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Q 10 of in situ microbial soil respiration varies with mean annual temperature, precipitation, pH, and plant cover: a meta-analysis and spatial prediction of Q 10

The temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration, commonly quantified using the Q 10 coefficient, is a key parameter in carbon cycle models. Uncovering how environmental factors affect in situ Q 10 values can therefore provide critical insight into potential shifts in global carbon stocks under climate change. We collected data from previously published field experiments that measured soil microbial respiration across a range of temperatures. We hypothesized that the Q 10 coefficient of in situ soil microbial respiration would vary based on environmental factors including mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), plant cover type, pH, soil C:N, and latitude. Linear regression revealed that Q 10 correlates negatively with MAT and MAP and positively with pH and absolute latitude. Additionally, average Q 10 varied significantly across different plant cover types; it was highest in mountain grasslands and lowest in tropical moist forests. Variation in microbial Q 10 across environmental factors may arise from underlying mechanisms such as enzyme kinetics, substrate availability and complexity, and microbial adaptation. To capture patterns in Q 10 more comprehensively, we developed a multiple linear regression model of Q 10 based on the most individually significant environmental drivers and applied it to public datasets to generate a global map of predicted Q 10 . Q 10 was higher in high-latitude and high-altitude regions, where large permafrost carbon stores are vulnerable to thawing and decomposition. We also compared fits between the Q 10 equation and a model produced from macromolecular rate theory (MMRT). We found that the MMRT model had the superior fit and may be better suited to model temperature sensitivity of complex biological reactions. Overall, our results emphasize that relationships between microbial Q 10 and environmental variables should be accounted for in climate models. Incorporating these variations in the Q 10 parameter, rather than using a fixed value, will help predict whether CO 2 emissions will be buffered or exacerbated by soil microbial respiration under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Parallel runway requirement analysis study. Volume 1: The analysis

The correlation of increased flight delays with the level of aviation activity is well recognized. A main contributor to these flight delays has been the capacity of airports. Though new airport and runway construction would significantly increase airport capacity, few programs of this type are currently underway, let alone planned, because of the high cost associated with such endeavors. Therefore, it is necessary to achieve the most efficient and cost effective use of existing fixed airport resources through better planning and control of traffic flows. In fact, during the past few years the FAA has initiated such an airport capacity program designed to provide additional capacity at existing airports. Some of the improvements that that program has generated thus far have been based on new Air Traffic Control procedures, terminal automation, additional Instrument Landing Systems, improved controller display aids, and improved utilization of multiple runways/Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC) approach procedures. A useful element to understanding potential operational capacity enhancements at high demand airports has been the development and use of an analysis tool called The PLAND_BLUNDER (PLB) Simulation Model. The objective for building this simulation was to develop a parametric model that could be used for analysis in determining the minimum safety level of parallel runway operations for various parameters representing the airplane, navigation, surveillance, and ATC system performance. This simulation is useful as: a quick and economical evaluation of existing environments that are experiencing IMC delays, an efficient way to study and validate proposed procedure modifications, an aid in evaluating requirements for new airports or new runways in old airports, a simple, parametric investigation of a wide range of issues and approaches, an ability to tradeoff air and ground technology and procedures contributions, and a way of considering probable blunder mechanisms and range of blunder scenarios. This study describes the steps of building the simulation and considers the input parameters, assumptions and limitations, and available outputs. Validation results and sensitivity analysis are addressed as well as outlining some IMC and Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) approaches to parallel runways. Also, present and future applicable technologies (e.g., Digital Autoland Systems, Traffic Collision and Avoidance System II, Enhanced Situational Awareness System, Global Positioning Systems for Landing, etc.) are assessed and recommendations made.

Ebrahimi, Yaghoob S.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Simulation studies of wide and medium field of view earth radiation data analysis

A parameter estimation technique is presented to estimate the radiative flux distribution over the earth from radiometer measurements at satellite altitude. The technique analyzes measurements from a wide field of view (WFOV), horizon to horizon, nadir pointing sensor with a mathematical technique to derive the radiative flux estimates at the top of the atmosphere for resolution elements smaller than the sensor field of view. A computer simulation of the data analysis technique is presented for both earth-emitted and reflected radiation. Zonal resolutions are considered as well as the global integration of plane flux. An estimate of the equator-to-pole gradient is obtained from the zonal estimates. Sensitivity studies of the derived flux distribution to directional model errors are also presented. In addition to the WFOV results, medium field of view results are presented.

Green, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Simultaneous Global Pressure and Temperature Measurement Technique for Hypersonic Wind Tunnels

High-temperature luminescent coatings are being developed and applied for simultaneous pressure and temperature mapping in conventional-type hypersonic wind tunnels, providing global pressure as well as Global aeroheating measurements. Together, with advanced model fabrication and analysis methods, these techniques will provide a more rapid and complete experimental aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic database for future aerospace vehicles. The current status in development of simultaneous pressure- and temperature-sensitive coatings and measurement techniques for hypersonic wind tunnels at Langley Research Center is described. and initial results from a feasibility study in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel are presented.

Buck, Gregory M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Refining water and carbon fluxes modeling in terrestrial ecosystems via plant hydraulics integration

Plant hydraulics substantially affects terrestrial water and carbon cycles by modulating water transport and carbon assimilation. Despite improved drought simulations in certain ecosystems through their integration into land surface models (LSMs), the broader application of plant hydraulics in diverse ecosystems and hydroclimates is still underexplored. Here, in this study, we implemented the recently developed Noah-Multiparameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP LSM) equipped with a plant hydraulics scheme (Noah-MP-PHS) across 40 FLUXNET sites globally. Employing the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) auto-calibration algorithm, we optimized key plant hydraulics parameters for these sites spanning eight vegetation types in both arid and humid climates. Noah-MP-PHS significantly improves the simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) by better representing atmospheric and soil water stress compared to traditional soil hydraulic schemes (SHSs, such as Noah and CLM). The augmented Noah-MP-PHS models reduce surface flux overestimation and underestimation, exhibiting an average increase of 0.14 and 0.15 in Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) compared to Noah and CLM, respectively. The explicit consideration of plant capacitance in PHS reveals substantial deep-layer and nocturnal root water uptake especially under dry conditions. We employed eXplainable Machine learning (XML) to quantify the model’s relative sensitivity to newly introduced leaf-, stem and root-related parameters in PHS. The sensitivity analysis reveals a rise in root parameter importance and a decline in leaf and stem parameters as conditions shift from humid to arid. These findings indicate that as aridity states vary, the most influential parameters affecting surface fluxes variation may change in parameter calibration for PHS applications. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating plant hydraulics into LSMs to enhance simulations of terrestrial water and carbon dynamics. These findings are crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to global climate changes and guide the broader application of PHS at larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Progress in multidisciplinary design optimization at NASA Langley

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization refers to some combination of disciplinary analyses, sensitivity analysis, and optimization techniques used to design complex engineering systems. The ultimate objective of this research at NASA Langley Research Center is to help the US industry reduce the costs associated with development, manufacturing, and maintenance of aerospace vehicles while improving system performance. This report reviews progress towards this objective and highlights topics for future research. Aerospace design problems selected from the author's research illustrate strengths and weaknesses in existing multidisciplinary optimization techniques. The techniques discussed include multiobjective optimization, global sensitivity equations and sequential linear programming.

Padula, Sharon L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Determining the 3D Subsurface Density Structure of Taurus Littrow Valley Using Apollo 17 Gravity Data

Surface gravity surveys can detect subsurface density variations that can reveal subsurface geologic features. In 1972, the Apollo 17 (A17) mission conducted the Traverse Gravimeter Experiment (TGE) using a gravimeter that measured the local gravity field near Taurus Littrow Valley (TLV), located on the south-eastern rim of the Serenitatis basin. TLV is hypothesized to be a basaltfilled radial graben resulting from the impact that formed Mare Serenitatis. It is bounded by both the North and South Massifs (NM and SM) as well as other smaller mountains to the East that are thought to be mainly composed of brecciated highland material. The TGE is the first and only successful gravity survey on the surface of the Moon. Other more recent satellite surveys, such as NASA's Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission (2011- 2012), have produced the best global gravity field to date (approx. 13km resolution). However, these satellite surveys are not sensitive enough to detect fine-scale (<1km) lunar subsurface structures. This underscores the value of the data collected at the surface by A17. In the original analysis of the data a 2D forward-modelling approach was used to derive a thickness of the subsurface basalt layer of 1.0 km by assuming a simple flat-faced rectangular geometry and using densities derived from Apollo lunar samples. We are investigating whether modern 3D modelling techniques in combination with high-resolution topographical and image datasets can reveal additional fine-scale subsurface structure in TLV.

TGE↗
NASA NTRS2022

Cross‐Instrument Comparison of MapCam and OVIRS on OSIRIS‐REx

Two of the instruments onboard the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, the MapCam color imager and the OVIRS visible and 20 infrared spectrometer, observed the surface of asteroid (101955) Bennu in partially overlapping wavelengths. 21 Significant scientific advances have been enabled by using data from these two instruments in tandem, but a robust 22 statistical understanding of their relationship is needed for future analyses to cross-compare their data as accurately 23 and sensitively as possible. Here we present a cross-instrument comparison of data acquired by MapCam and 24 OVIRS, including methods and results for all global and site-specific observation campaigns in which both 25 instruments were active. In our analysis, we consider both the absolute radiometric offset and the relative 26 (normalized) variation between the two instruments; we find that both depend strongly on the photometric and 27 instrumental conditions during the observation. The two instruments have a large absolute offset (>15%) due to their 28 independent radiometric calibrations. However, they are very consistent (relative offset as low as 1%) when each 29 instrument’s response is normalized at a single wavelength, particularly at low phase angles where shadows on 30 Bennu’s rough surface are minimized. We recommend using the global datasets acquired at 12:30 pm local solar 31 time for cross-comparisons; data acquired at higher phase angles have larger uncertainties.

D R Golish↗
NASA NTRS1989

Deformation analysis of boron/aluminum specimens by moire interferometry

Whole-field surface deformations were measured for two slotted tension specimens from multiply laminates, one with 0 deg fiber orientation in the surface ply and the other with 45 deg orientation. Macromechanical and micromechanical details were revealed using high-sensitivity moire interferometry. Although global deformations of all plies were essentially equal, numerous random or anomalous features were observed. Local deformations of adjacent 0 deg and 45 deg plies were very different, both near the slot and remote from it, requiring large interlaminar shear strains for continuity. Shear strains were concentrated in the aluminum matrix. For 45 deg plies, a major portion of the deformation was by shear; large plastic slip of matrix occurred at random locations in 45 deg plies, wherein groups of fibers slipped relative to other groups. Shear strains in the interior, between adjacent fibers, were larger than the measured surface strains.

Post, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2014

Model Analysis of the Factors Regulating Trends and Variability of Methane, Carbon Monoxide and OH: 1. Model Validation

Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). Its 100-year global warming potential (GWP) is 25 times larger than that for carbon dioxide. The 100-yr integrated GWP of CH4 is sensitive to changes in OH levels. Methane's atmospheric growth rate was estimated to be more than 10 ppb yr(exp -1) in 1998 but less than zero in 2001, 2004 and 2005 (Kirschke et al., 2013). Since 2006, the CH4 is increasing again. This phenomena is yet not well understood. Oxidation of CH4 by OH is the main loss process, thus affecting the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and contributing to the global ozone background. Current models typically use an annual cycle of offline OH fields to simulate CH4. The implemented OH fields in these models are typically tuned so that simulated CH4 growth rates match that measured. For future and climate simulations, the OH tuning technique may not be suitable. In addition, running full chemistry, multi-decadal CH4 simulations is a serious challenge and currently, due to computational intensity, almost impossible.

OH↗
NASA NTRS2012

Simplified Models for the Study of Postbuckled Hat-Stiffened Composite Panels

The postbuckling response and failure of multistringer stiffened panels is analyzed using models with three levels of approximation. The first model uses a relatively coarse mesh to capture the global postbuckling response of a five-stringer panel. The second model can predict the nonlinear response as well as the debonding and crippling failure mechanisms in a single stringer compression specimen (SSCS). The third model consists of a simplified version of the SSCS that is designed to minimize the computational effort. The simplified model is well-suited to perform sensitivity analyses for studying the phenomena that lead to structural collapse. In particular, the simplified model is used to obtain a deeper understanding of the role played by geometric and material modeling parameters such as mesh size, inter-laminar strength, fracture toughness, and fracture mode mixity. Finally, a global/local damage analysis method is proposed in which a detailed local model is used to scan the global model to identify the locations that are most critical for damage tolerance.

Vescovini, Riccardo↗
NASA NTRS1980

The effect of directional radiation models on the interpretation of earth radiation budget measurements

A parameter estimation technique is presented to estimate the radiative flux density distribution over the earth from a set of radiometer measurements at satellite altitude. The technique analyzes measurements from a wide field of view, horizon to horizon, nadir pointing sensor with a mathematical technique to derive the radiative flux density estimates at the top of the atmosphere for resolution elements smaller than the sensor field of view. A computer simulation of the data analysis technique is presented for both earth-emitted and reflected radiation. The errors resulting from the assumed directional radiation model, spatial model and random measurement error have little effect on the global mean radiation. Zonal estimates were found to be more sensitive to the spatial model than to the directional radiation model. Results from analyzing medium field of view measurements showed a much greater sensitivity to the directional radiation model even on a global scale.

Green, R. N.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest residue harvest optimization: spanning the bridge between plant biology and biorefinery performance

Forestry residues have immense potential as alternative feedstocks to petroleum, yet their inherent complexity remains a major challenge to widespread use. Pairing the temporal rhythms of plant biology with biorefinery performance is critical to industrial-scale biorefinery development. Here, we provide the first report of a techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) for a model integrated reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF)–molten salt hydrolysis process for forestry residues varying in tree part, species, and phenophase. All forestry residues resulted in net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions vs. comparable petroleum feedstocks, with GHG emissions potentially reduced >4.0× through composition-based feedstock selection (e.g., harvesting American beech bark in spring vs. summer). Moreover, American beech twigs/branchlets and bark in leafed and emergence phenophases, respectively, had 7.9× lower predicted phenolic minimum selling prices (MSPs) vs. other feedstocks and MSPs within the current global phenolic market range. Hemicellulose content and RCF yield emerged as key parameters impacting GHG emissions and biorefinery revenue, identifying hardwood twigs/branchlets in the leafed phenophase as optimal biofeedstocks. Biorefinery expenses were dominated by purchased equipment, raw materials, and utility costs, highlighting essential areas for future study. Notably, RCF reactor pressures drove 85–90% of equipment costs, but sensitivity analysis revealed that decreasing the pressure 20% could reduce the phenol MSP 4-fold. Structural carbohydrate dynamics were also investigated using a two-step acid hydrolysis method to resolve tissue- and species-level patterns in biomass composition throughout the year to enable harvest optimization based on TEA/LCA findings. Ultimately, elucidating the impact of biofeedstock dynamics on biorefinery performance enables harvest optimization, informed engineering design, and progress towards an expanded bioeconomy.

Shapiro, Alison J. [University of Delaware, Newark↗
NASA NTRS1977

A computationally fast one-dimensional diffusion-photochemistry model of SST wakes

A computational technique applicable to analysis of supersonic transport (SST) wake photochemistry and diffusion is presented. Sensitivity studies of SST effluent effects upon ozone depletion are facilitated by the computational rapidity of the method. The article compares results from other studies and predictions of some variables related to global NOx input. Results indicate that the NO/NO2 ratio in an SST wake at photochemical equilibrium is a sensitive function of photolysis rates.

Matloff, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Balloon-based interferometric techniques

A balloon-borne triple-etalon Fabry-Perot Interferometer, observing the Doppler shifts of absorption lines caused by molecular oxygen and water vapor in the far red/near infrared spectrum of backscattered sunlight, has been used to evaluate a passive spaceborne remote sensing technique for measuring winds in the troposphere and stratosphere. There have been two successful high altitude balloon flights of the prototype UCL instrument from the National Scientific Balloon Facility at Palestine, TE (May 80, Oct. 83). The results from these flights have demonstrated that an interferometer with adequate resolution, stability and sensitivity can be built. The wind data are of comparable quality to those obtained from operational techniques (balloon and rocket sonde, cloud-top drift analysis, and from the gradient wind analysis of satellite radiance measurements). However, the interferometric data can provide a regular global grid, over a height range from 5 to 50 km in regions of clear air. Between the middle troposphere (5 km) and the upper stratosphere (40 to 50 km), an optimized instrument can make wind measurements over the daylit hemisphere with an accuracy of about 3 to 5 m/sec (2 sigma). It is possible to obtain full height profiles between altitudes of 5 and 50 km, with 4 km height resolution, and a spatial resolution of about 200 km, along the orbit track. Below an altitude of about 10 km, Fraunhofer lines of solar origin are possible targets of the Doppler wind analysis. Above an altitude of 50 km, the weakness of the backscattered solar spectrum (decreasing air density) is coupled with the low absorption crosssection of all atmospheric species in the spectral region up to 800 nm (where imaging photon detectors can be used), causing the along-the-track resolution (or error) to increase beyond values useful for operational purposes. Within the region of optimum performance (5 to 50 km), however, the technique is a valuable potential complement to existing wind measuring systems and can provide a low cost addition to powerful active (LIDAR) wind measuring systems now under development.

Rees, David↗