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At least 181 records · Page 10

Establishing the Global Fresh Water Sensor Web

This paper presents an approach to measuring the major components of the water cycle from space using the concept of a sensor-web of satellites that are linked to a data assimilation system. This topic is of increasing importance, due to the need for fresh water to support the growing human population, coupled with climate variability and change. The net effect is that water is an increasingly valuable commodity. The distribution of fresh water is highly uneven over the Earth, with both strong latitudinal distributions due to the atmospheric general circulation, and even larger variability due to landforms and the interaction of land with global weather systems. The annual global fresh water budget is largely a balance between evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff. Although the available volume of fresh water on land is small, the short residence time of water in these fresh water reservoirs causes the flux of fresh water - through evaporation, atmospheric transport, precipitation and runoff - to be large. With a total atmospheric water store of approx. 13 x 10(exp 12)cu m, and an annual flux of approx. 460 x 10(exp 12)cu m/y, the mean atmospheric residence time of water is approx. 10 days. River residence times are similar, biological are approx. 1 week, soil moisture is approx. 2 months, and lakes and aquifers are highly variable, extending from weeks to years. The hypothesized potential for redistribution and acceleration of the global hydrological cycle is therefore of concern. This hypothesized speed-up - thought to be associated with global warming - adds to the pressure placed upon water resources by the burgeoning human population, the variability of weather and climate, and concerns about anthropogenic impacts on global fresh water availability.

Hildebrand, Peter H.↗

Efficient 1.6 Micron Laser Source for Methane DIAL

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and on a per molecule basis has a warming influence 72 times that of carbon dioxide over a 20 year horizon. Therefore, it is important to look at near term radiative effects due to methane to develop mitigation strategies to counteract global warming trends via ground and airborne based measurements systems. These systems require the development of a time-resolved DIAL capability using a narrow-line laser source allowing observation of atmospheric methane on local, regional and global scales. In this work, a demonstrated and efficient nonlinear conversion scheme meeting the performance requirements of a deployable methane DIAL system is presented. By combining a single frequency 1064 nm pump source and a seeded KTP OPO more than 5 mJ of 1.6 μm pulse energy is generated with conversion efficiencies in excess of 20%. Even without active cavity control instrument limited linewidths (50 pm) were achieved with an estimated spectral purity of ~95%. Tunable operation over 400 pm (limited by the tuning range of the seed laser) was also demonstrated. This source demonstrated the critical needs for a methane DIAL system motivating additional development of the technology.

Shuman, Timothy↗

A Novel Triple-Pulsed 2-micrometer Lidar for Simultaneous and Independent CO2 and H2O Column Measurement

The study of global warming needs precisely and accurately measuring greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere. CO2 and H2O are important greenhouse gases that significantly contribute to the carbon cycle and global radiation budget on Earth. NRC Decadal Survey recommends a mission for Active Sensing of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS). 2 micron laser is a viable IPDA transmitter to measure CO2 and H2O column density from space. The objective is to demonstrate a first airborne direct detection 2 micron IPDA lidar for CO2 and H2O measurements.

Yu, Jirong↗

Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.

Yan, Xiao-Hai↗

Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources

Climate stabilization remains elusive, with increased greenhouse gas concentrations already increasing global average surface temperatures 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel use, deforestation, and other anthropogenic sources reached ~ 43 billion metric tonnes in 2019 (Friedlingstein et al 2019, Jackson et al 2019). Storms, floods, and other extreme weather events displaced a record 7 million people in the first half of 2019 (IDMC 2019). When global mean surface temperature four million years ago was 2°C–3°C warmer than today (a likely temperature increase before the end of the century), ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica melted and parts of East Antarctica’s ice retreated, causing sea levels to rise 10–20 m (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Methane (CH4) emissions have contributed almost one quarter of the cumulative radiative forcings for CO2, CH4, and N2O (nitrous oxide) combined since 1750 (Etminan et al 2016). Although methane is far less abundant in the atmosphere than CO2, it absorbs thermal infrared radiation much more efficiently and, in consequence, has a global warming potential (GWP) ~86 times stronger per unit mass than CO2 on a 20-year timescale and 28- times more powerful on a 100-year time scale (IPCC 2014). Global average methane concentrations in the atmosphere reached ~1875 parts per billion (ppb) at the end of 2019, more than two-and-a-half times preindustrial levels (Dlugokencky 2020). The largest methane sources include anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, waste, and the extraction and use of fossil fuels as well as natural emissions from wetlands, freshwater systems, and geological sources (Kirschke et al 2013, Saunois et al 2016a, Ganesan et al 2019). Here, we summarize new estimates of the global methane budget based on the analysis of Saunois et al (2020) for the year 2017, the last year of the new Global Methane Budget and the most recent year data are fully available. We compare these estimates to mean values for the reference ‘stabilization’ period of 2000–2006 when atmospheric CH4 concentrations were relatively stable. We present data for sources and sinks and provide insights for the geographical regions and economic sectors where emissions have changed the most over recent decades.

fossil fuel sources↗

Spectroscopic data for thermal infrared remote sensing

There has been extensive world-wide use of chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFC's), especially CFC-11 (CFCl3) and CFC-12 (CF2Cl2), hydro-chloro-fluoro-carbons (HCFC's), HCFC-22 (CHFCl2) in particular, and sulphur hexaflouride (SF6) in numerous many industrial applications. These chemicals possess either a strong ozone-depletion potential or a global-warming potential, or both, and pose a threat to the inhabitability of our planet. Recognition of this fact has led to significant curtailment, if not total banishment, of their use globally. However, as recent satellite observations have shown, decline in their atmospheric concentrations may not be immediate. The marked depletion of ozone which has been observed in recent years at high latitudes has made infrared remote sensing of the atmosphere an activity of high priority. The success of any infrared remote sensing experiment conducted in the atmosphere depends upon the availability of accurate, high-resolution, spectroscopic data that are applicable to that experiment. This paper presents a preliminary phase of a multi-faceted work using a Fourier-transform spectrometer (FTS) which is in progress in our laboratory. The concept of how laboratory-borne measurements can be geared toward obtaining a database that is directly applicable to satellite-borne remote sensing missions is the main thrust of this paper which addresses itself to ongoing or planned international space missions. Spectroscopic data on the unresolvable bands of the above mentioned as well as several other man-made gases and on the individual spectral lines of such naturally present trace gases as CO2, N2O, NH3, and CH4 are presented. There is often significant overlap between the isolated lines of better known bands of the more abundant species and the weaker absorption features identifiable as bands of the currently less abundant CFC's, HCFC's, and SF6.

Varanasi, P.↗

Decadal Variation of the Number of El Nino Onsets and El Nino-Related Months and Estimating the Likelihood of El Nino Onset in a Warming World

Examination of the decadal variation of the number of El Nino onsets and El Nino-related months for the interval 1950-2008 clearly shows that the variation is better explained as one expressing normal fluctuation and not one related to global warming. Comparison of the recurrence periods for El Nino onsets against event durations for moderate/strong El Nino events results in a statistically important relationship that allows for the possible prediction of the onset for the next anticipated El Nino event. Because the last known El Nino was a moderate event of short duration (6 months), having onset in August 2006, unless it is a statistical outlier, one expects the next onset of El Nino probably in the latter half of 2009, with peak following in November 2009-January 2010. If true, then initial early extended forecasts of frequencies of tropical cyclones for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season probably should be revised slightly downward from near average-to-above average numbers to near average-to-below average numbers of tropical cyclones in 2009, especially as compared to averages since 1995, the beginning of the current high-activity interval for tropical cyclone activity.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Non-Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt Co2 Forcing Due to a North Atlantic Pattern Effect

Effective climate sensitivity (EffCS), commonly estimated from model simulations with abrupt 4×CO 2 for 150 years, has been shown to depend on the CO 2 forcing level. To understand this dependency systematically, we performed a series of simulations with a range of abrupt CO 2 forcing in two climate models. Our results indicate that normalized EffCS values in these simulations are a non-monotonic function of the CO 2 forcing, decreasing between 3× and 4×CO 2 in CESM1-LE (2× and 3×CO 2 in GISS-E2.1-G) and increasing at higher CO 2 levels. The minimum EffCS value, caused by anomalously negative radiative feedbacks, arises mainly from sea-surface temperature (SST) relative cooling in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This cooling is associated with the formation of the North Atlantic Warming Hole and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse under CO 2 forcing. Our findings imply that understanding changes in North Atlantic SST patterns is important for constraining near-future and equilibrium global warming.

effective climate sensitivity↗

Pathways of Understanding: the Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental Change

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram.

Jacobson, Harold K.↗

Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming

Urbanization is a complex land transformation, not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize it within land surface models and assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and de-coupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15°C, with a warming of 0.24°C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25°C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13°C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.

Lahouari Bounoua↗

Implications of solar irradiance variability upon long-term changes in the Earth's atmospheric temperatures

From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

Lee, Robert B., III↗

Spatiotemporal Methane Emissions from Global Reservoirs

Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas which contributes significantly to global warming and has atmospheric concentrations which have increased considerably in the last few decades, primarily due to human-induced emissions. Natural sources such as wetlands and inland aquatic systems (i.e., reservoirs, lakes, rivers) contribute substantially to global emissions but these natural systems comprise the most uncertain components of the CH4 budget. This study addresses multiple gaps and uncertainties associated with global CH4 emissions from reservoirs and undertakes a spatial and temporal assessment of global reservoir emissions. The results from this study suggest that reservoirs occupy a global area about 300,000 km2 (comparable to the size of the country of Italy) and emit 10.1 Tg CH4 yr-1. We identify data and methodological elements of previous estimates that indicate they may overestimate these emissions. This work provides a suite of global data sets, gridded at 0.25° × 0.25°, considering reservoir surface area, spatial distribution, eco-climatic system type, and the full annual cycle of daily CH4 emissions.

Spatiotemporal↗

Significant Climate Benefits from Near-Term Climate Forcer Mitigation in Spite of Aerosol Reductions

Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality--so called "win-win" mitigation policies. Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of -0.15 K by mid-century and -0.50 K by end-of-the-century. This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality.

Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs)↗

Climatic changes resulting from mass extinctions at the K-T boundary (and other bio-events)

The mass extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary include about 90 percent of marine calcareous nannoplankton (coccoliths), and carbon-isotope data show that marine primary productivity was drastically reduced for about 500,000 years after the boundary event, the so-called Strangelove Ocean effect. One result of the elimination of most marine phytoplankton would have been a severe reduction in production of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), a biogenic gas that is believed to be the major precursor of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) over the oceans. A drastic reduction in marine CCN should lead to a cloud canopy with significantly lower reflectivity, and hence cause a significant warming at the earth's surface. Calculations suggest that, all other things being held constant, a reduction in CCN of more than 80 percent (a reasonable value for the K-T extinctions) could have produced a rapid global warming of 6 C or more. Oxygen-isotope analyses of marine sediments, and other kinds of paleoclimatic data, have provided for a marked warming, and a general instability of climate coincident with the killoff of marine plankton at the K-T boundary. Similar reductions in phytoplankton abundance at other boundaries, as indicated by marked shifts in carbon-isotope curves, suggest that severe temperature changes may have accompanied other mass extinctions, and raises the intriguing possibility that the extinction events themselves could have contributed to the climatic instabilities at critical bio-events in the geologic record.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

Airborne Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) for peat analyses in the Canadian Northern wetlands study

The study was conducted as part of the NASA Biospherics Research on Emissions from Wetlands (BREW) program. An important aspect of the program is to investigate the terrestrial production and atmospheric distribution of methane and other gases contributing to global warming. Multi-kilometer transects of airborne (helicopter) Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) data were collected periodically along the 100 km distance from the coast inland so as to obtain a regional trend in peat depth and related parameters. Global Positioning System (GPS) data were simultaneously collected from the helicopter to properly georeference the GPR data. Additional 50 m ground-based transects of GPR data were also collected as a source of ground truthing, as a calibration aid for the airborne data sets, and as a source of higher resolution data for characterizing the strata within the peat. In situ peat depth probing and soil characterizations from excavated soil pits were used to verify GPR findings. Results from the ground-based data are presented.

Pelletier-Travis, Ramona E.↗

Recent Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet as Seen from Space

Many changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet have been reported in the recent scientific literature and have been attributed to various responses of the ice sheet due to regional (and global) warming. Because melting of the ice sheet would contribute approximately 7 m to sea-level rise, the lives and habitat of hundreds of millions of people worldwide would be directly and indirectly affected if continued ice-sheet melting occurs. As mean-annual global temperatures have increased, there has been an increasing focus on studying the Greenland Ice Sheet using available satellite data, and numerous expeditions have been undertaken. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 C to 0.72+/-0.10 C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to more extensive melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue of increasing concern to billions of people worldwide. The surface temperature of the ice sheet has been studied in even greater detail using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data in the six individual drainage basins as well as for the ice sheet as a whole. Surface temperature trends in the decade of the 2000s have not been strong, according to the MODIS measurements. In addition to surface-temperature increases over the last few decades as measured by AVHRR, other changes have been observed such as accelerated movement of many of Greenland's outlet glaciers and sudden draining of supraglacial lakes. Decreasing mass of the ice sheet since (at least) 2002 has been measured using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, along with an build-up of ice at the higher elevations and a decrease of ice at the lower elevations as measured using airborne Lidar and Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data. The seminar will address the above issues using a variety of NASA satellite data and ground observations.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Drought Monitoring with Drones: A Hundred Fields at a Time

Drought frequency and severity are likely to increase due to global warming. Droughts already have a substantial negative influence on agriculture and the economy and finding ways to reduce their effects could have a monumental impact. Although NASA already has satellites deployed to collect drought data, these satellites are more for global drought indexing than local. To alleviate droughts on a local level, this paper proposes the use of drones to map soil moisture, plant health, and other drought indicators. The proposed drone design is a fixed-wing UAV equipped with a hyperspectral camera, a LiDAR sensor, and an array of weather sensors. These tools will permit it to reliably capture the necessary data to enhance suggestions on improving drought management practices. The collected data from the drones will be deployable in many ways, including for agricultural and non-agricultural applications. The hyperspectral camera has applications in monitoring the health of crops within a field to direct relief measures to the crops most in need. Thermal and LiDAR imaging can be deployed for locating leaks, predicting shortages of water bodies, and determining a field’s water needs. To implement a drought-monitoring drone, the recommended steps include building a prototype drone design that is equipped with the outlined instruments. The prototype drone could then be deployed to collect training data to guide a neural network that would provide interpretations and predictions from the data for users. After the prototype design is iterated upon, it will be ready for deployment and inform water management methods to serve the world in our battle against drought.

climate change↗

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below-normal precipitation and terminated by average or above-normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming-driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

drought↗