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The Dark Planets of the WASP-47 Planetary System

Exoplanet discoveries have demonstrated a vast range of planetary system architectures. The demographic of compact planetary systems are especially interesting from the perspective of planetary formation and the evolution of orbital dynamics. Another interesting demographic is that of giant planets in eccentric orbits, since these planets have likely had a dynamical history involving planet–planet scattering events. The WASP-47 system is particularly fascinating since it combines these two demographics, having both compact planetary orbits and a giant planet on an eccentric orbit within the system the habitable zone. Here we provide an analysis of the WASP-47 system from the perspective of atmospheric detection and characterization. We discuss the system architecture and the potential for additional long-period planets. We simulate expected phase variations as a function of planet orbital phase for the system due to the combined effect of the planets. We present an analysis of precision photometry of WASP-47 from the K2 mission, phased on each of the planets. The analysis rules out the detection of phase signatures for the two inner-most planets, enabling constraints upon their albedos and atmospheric properties. Our study concludes that WASP-47b is an example of a “dark” planet with a tentative geometric albedo of 0.016 and a 1σ upper limit of 0.17. The WASP-47e data are consistent with a broad range of albedos, but also show early evidence of having a relatively low albedo. The growing number of dark, short-period giant planets provide the framework of an ideal sample for studying low albedo dependence on atmospheric composition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solar Contamination in Extreme-precision Radial-velocity Measurements: Deleterious Effects and Prospects for Mitigation

Solar contamination, due to moonlight and atmospheric scattering of sunlight, can cause systematic errors in stellar radial velocity (RV) measurements that significantly detract from the ∼10 cm s{sup −1} sensitivity required for the detection and characterization of terrestrial exoplanets in or near habitable zones of Sun-like stars. The addition of low-level spectral contamination at variable effective velocity offsets introduces systematic noise when measuring velocities using classical mask-based or template-based cross-correlation techniques. Here we present simulations estimating the range of RV measurement error induced by uncorrected scattered sunlight contamination. We explore potential correction techniques, using both simultaneous spectrometer sky fibers and broadband imaging via coherent fiber imaging bundles, that could reliably reduce this source of error to below the photon-noise limit of typical stellar observations. We discuss the limitations of these simulations, the underlying assumptions, and mitigation mechanisms. We also present and discuss the components designed and built into the NEID (NN-EXPLORE Exoplanet Investigations with Doppler spectroscopy) precision RV instrument for the WIYN 3.5 m telescope, to serve as an ongoing resource for the community to explore and evaluate correction techniques. We emphasize that while “bright time” has been traditionally adequate for RV science, the goal of 10 cm s{sup −1} precision on the most interesting exoplanetary systems may necessitate access to darker skies for these next-generation instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Photometry as a Proxy for Stellar Activity in Radial Velocity Analyses

Stellar activity remains a limiting factor in measuring precise planet parameters from radial velocity spectroscopy, not least in the search for Earth-mass planets orbiting in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars. One approach to mitigate stellar activity is to use combined analyses of both radial velocity and time-series photometry. We present an analysis of simultaneous disk-integrated photometry and radial velocity data of the Sun in order to determine the useful limits of a combined analysis. We find that simple periodogram or autocorrelation analysis of solar photometry give the correct rotation period <50% of the time. We therefore use a Gaussian process to investigate the time variability of solar photometry and to directly compare simultaneous photometry with radial velocity data. We find that the hyperparameter posteriors are relatively stable over 70 yr of solar photometry and the amplitude tracks the solar cycle. We observe good agreement between the hyperparameter posteriors for the simultaneous photometry and radial velocity data. Our primary conclusion is a recommendation to include an additional prior in Gaussian process fits to constrain the evolutionary timescale to be greater than the recurrence timescale (i.e., the rotation period) to recover more physically plausible and useful results. Our results indicate that such simultaneous monitoring may be a useful tool in enhancing the precision of radial velocity surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Gaia–Kepler Stellar Properties Catalog. II. Planet Radius Demographics as a Function of Stellar Mass and Age

Studies of exoplanet demographics require large samples and precise constraints on exoplanet host stars. Using the homogeneous Kepler stellar properties derived using the Gaia Data Release 2 by Berger et al., we recompute Kepler planet radii and incident fluxes and investigate their distributions with stellar mass and age. We measure the stellar mass dependence of the planet radius valley to be dlogR{sub p}/dlogM{sub ⋆} = 0.26{sub −0.16}{sup +0.21}, consistent with the slope predicted by a planet mass dependence on stellar mass (0.24–0.35) and core-powered mass loss (0.33). We also find the first evidence of a stellar age dependence of the planet populations straddling the radius valley. Specifically, we determine that the fraction of super-Earths (1–1.8 R{sub ⊕}) to sub-Neptunes (1.8–3.5 R{sub ⊕}) increases from 0.61 ± 0.09 at young ages (<1 Gyr) to 1.00 ± 0.10 at old ages (>1 Gyr), consistent with the prediction by core-powered mass loss that the mechanism shaping the radius valley operates over Gyr timescales. Additionally, we find a tentative decrease in the radii of relatively cool (F {sub p} < 150 F{sub ⊕}) sub-Neptunes over Gyr timescales, which suggests that these planets may possess H/He envelopes instead of higher mean molecular weight atmospheres. We confirm the existence of planets within the hot sub-Neptunian “desert” (2.2 R {sub ⊕} < R {sub p} < 3.8 R{sub ⊕}, F {sub p} > 650 F{sub ⊕}) and show that these planets are preferentially orbiting more evolved stars compared to other planets at similar incident fluxes. In addition, we identify candidates for cool (F {sub p} < 20 F{sub ⊕}) inflated Jupiters, present a revised list of habitable zone candidates, and find that the ages of single and multiple transiting planet systems are statistically indistinguishable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

High-resolution Spectra of Earth-like Planets Orbiting Red Giant Host Stars

In the near future we will have ground- and space-based telescopes that are designed to observe and characterize Earth-like planets. While attention is focused on exoplanets orbiting main-sequence stars, more than 150 exoplanets have already been detected orbiting red giants, opening the intriguing question of what rocky worlds orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ) of red giants would be like and how to characterize them. We present a high-resolution spectral database of reflection and emission spectra for nominal Earth-like planets orbiting in the red giant HZ from the visible to infrared (0.4–20 μm) for planets orbiting at the Earth-equivalent distance. We also show the change of such planetary spectra through the evolution of their red giant hosts. While the luminosity of the host increases the contrast ratio between star and planet, the increased orbital distance of the HZ for red giant hosts relaxes the light suppression requirements close to the star, which could make such planets interesting targets to characterize and search for signs of life, if new coronagraph designs with higher suppression at larger orbital separations could be developed. We assess the feasibility of characterizing atmospheric features including biosignatures for such planets with the proposed mission concept Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

JWST Noise Floor. II. Systematic Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) holds great promise for characterizing atmospheres of transiting exoplanets, potentially providing insights into Earth-sized planets within the habitable zones of M-dwarf host stars if photon-limited performance can be achieved. Here, we discuss the systematic error sources that are expected to be present in grism time-series observations with the NIRCam instrument. We find that pointing jitter and high-gain antenna moves in addition to the detectors’ subpixel crosshatch patterns will produce relatively small variations (less than 6 parts per million, ppm). The time-dependent aperture losses due to thermal instabilities in the optics can also be kept to below 2 ppm. To achieve these low noise values, it is important to employ a sufficiently large (more than 11) extraction aperture. Persistence due to charge-trapping will have a minor (less than 3 ppm) effect on the time series 20 minutes into an exposure and is expected to play a much smaller role than it does for the Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 detectors. We expect detector temperature fluctuations to contribute less than 3 ppm. In total, our estimated noise floor from known systematic error sources is only 9 ppm per visit. We urge caution, however, because unknown systematic error sources could be present in flight and will only be measurable on astrophysical sources such as quiescent stars. We find that reciprocity failure may introduce a perennial instrument offset at the 40 ppm level, so corrections may be needed when a multi-instrument multi-observatory spectrum is stitched together over wide wavelength ranges.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Epoch of Giant Planet Migration Planet Search Program. I. Near-infrared Radial Velocity Jitter of Young Sun-like Stars

We present early results from the Epoch of Giant Planet Migration program, a precise radial velocity (RV) survey of more than 100 intermediate-age (∼20–200 Myr) G and K dwarfs with the Habitable Zone Planet Finder spectrograph (HPF) at McDonald Observatory’s Hobby–Eberly Telescope. The goals of this program are to determine the timescale and dominant physical mechanism of giant planet migration interior to the water ice line of Sun-like stars. Here, we summarize results from the first 14 months of this program, with a focus on our custom RV pipeline for HPF, a measurement of the intrinsic near-infrared RV activity of young Solar analogs, and modeling the underlying population-level distribution of stellar jitter. We demonstrate on-sky stability at the sub-2 m s{sup −1} level for the K2 standard HD 3765 using a least-squares matching method to extract precise RVs. Based on a subsample of 29 stars with at least three RV measurements from our program, we find a median rms level of 34 m s{sup −1}. This is nearly a factor of 2 lower than the median rms level in the optical of 60 m s{sup −1} for a comparison sample with similar ages and spectral types as our targets. The observed near-infrared jitter measurements for this subsample are well reproduced with a log-normal parent distribution with μ = 4.15 and σ = 1.02. Finally, by compiling rms values from previous planet search programs, we show that near-infrared jitter for G and K dwarfs generally decays with age in a similar fashion to optical wavelengths, albeit with a shallower slope and lower overall values for ages ≲1 Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Detection Limits of Low-mass, Long-period Exoplanets Using Gaussian Processes Applied to HARPS-N Solar Radial Velocities

Radial velocity (RV) searches for Earth-mass exoplanets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars are limited by the effects of stellar variability on the host star. In particular, suppression of convective blueshift and brightness inhomogeneities due to photospheric faculae/plage and starspots are the dominant contribution to the variability of such stellar RVs. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful tool for statistically modeling these quasi-periodic variations. We investigate the limits of this technique using 800 days of RVs from the solar telescope on the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher for the Northern hemisphere (HARPS-N) spectrograph. These data provide a well-sampled time series of stellar RV variations. Into this data set, we inject Keplerian signals with periods between 100 and 500 days and amplitudes between 0.6 and 2.4 m s{sup −1}. We use GP regression to fit the resulting RVs and determine the statistical significance of recovered periods and amplitudes. We then generate synthetic RVs with the same covariance properties as the solar data to determine a lower bound on the observational baseline necessary to detect low-mass planets in Venus-like orbits around a Sun-like star. Our simulations show that discovering planets with a larger mass (∼0.5 m s{sup −1}) using current-generation spectrographs and GP regression will require more than 12 yr of densely sampled RV observations. Furthermore, even with a perfect model of stellar variability, discovering a true exo-Venus (∼0.1 m s{sup −1}) with current instruments would take over 15 yr. Therefore, next-generation spectrographs and better models of stellar variability are required for detection of such planets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Stellar Activity Manifesting at a One-year Alias Explains Barnard b as a False Positive

Barnard’s star is among the most studied stars given its proximity to the Sun. It is often considered the radial velocity (RV) standard for fully convective stars due to its RV stability and equatorial decl. Recently, an Msin i=3.3M{sub ⊕} super-Earth planet candidate with a 233 day orbital period was announced by Ribas et al. New observations from the near-infrared Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) Doppler spectrometer do not show this planetary signal. We ran a suite of experiments on both the original data and a combined original + HPF data set. These experiments include model comparisons, periodogram analyses, and sampling sensitivity, all of which show the signal at the proposed period of 233 days is transitory in nature. The power in the signal is largely contained within 211 RVs that were taken within a 1000 day span of observing. Our preferred model of the system is one that features stellar activity without a planet. We propose that the candidate planetary signal is an alias of the 145 day rotation period. This result highlights the challenge of analyzing long-term, quasi-periodic activity signals over multiyear and multi-instrument observing campaigns.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Nondetection of Helium in the Upper Atmospheres of TRAPPIST-1b, e, and f

We obtained high-resolution spectra of the ultracool M-dwarf TRAPPIST-1 during the transit of its planet “b” using two high-dispersion near-infrared spectrographs, the Infrared Doppler (IRD) instrument on the Subaru 8.2m telescope, and the Habitable Zone Planet Finder (HPF) instrument on the 10 m Hobby–Eberly Telescope. These spectroscopic observations are complemented by a photometric transit observation for planet “b” using the APO/ARCTIC, which assisted us in capturing the correct transit times for our transit spectroscopy. Using the data obtained by the new IRD and HPF observations, as well as the prior transit observations of planets “b,” “e” and “f” from IRD, we attempt to constrain the atmospheric escape of the planet using the He i triplet 10830 Å absorption line. We do not detect evidence for any primordial extended H-He atmospheres in all three planets. To limit any planet-related absorption, we place an upper limit on the equivalent widths of <7.754 mÅ for planet “b,” <10.458 mÅ for planet “e,” <4.143 mÅ for planet “f” at 95% confidence from the IRD data, and <3.467 mÅ for planet “b” at 95% confidence from HPF data. Using these limits along with a solar-like composition isothermal Parker wind model, we attempt to constrain the mass-loss rates for the three planets. For TRAPPIST-1b, our models exclude the highest possible energy-limited rate for a wind temperature <5000 K. This nondetection of extended atmospheres with low mean-molecular weights in all three planets aids in further constraining their atmospheric composition by steering the focus toward the search of high-molecular-weight species in their atmospheres.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

The HETDEX Instrumentation: Hobby–Eberly Telescope Wide-field Upgrade and VIRUS

The Hobby–Eberly Telescope (HET) Dark Energy Experiment (HETDEX) is undertaking a blind wide-field low-resolution spectroscopic survey of 540 deg 2 of sky to identify and derive redshifts for a million Ly α -emitting galaxies in the redshift range 1.9 < z < 3.5. The ultimate goal is to measure the expansion rate of the universe at this epoch, to sharply constrain cosmological parameters and thus the nature of dark energy. A major multiyear Wide-Field Upgrade (WFU) of the HET was completed in 2016 that substantially increased the field of view to 22' diameter and the pupil to 10 m, by replacing the optical corrector, tracker, and Prime Focus Instrument Package and by developing a new telescope control system. The new, wide-field HET now feeds the Visible Integral-field Replicable Unit Spectrograph (VIRUS), a new low-resolution integral-field spectrograph (LRS2), and the Habitable Zone Planet Finder, a precision near-infrared radial velocity spectrograph. VIRUS consists of 156 identical spectrographs fed by almost 35,000 fibers in 78 integral-field units arrayed at the focus of the upgraded HET. VIRUS operates in a bandpass of 3500–5500 Å with resolving power R ≃ 800. VIRUS is the first example of large-scale replication applied to instrumentation in optical astronomy to achieve spectroscopic surveys of very large areas of sky. This paper presents technical details of the HET WFU and VIRUS, as flowed down from the HETDEX science requirements, along with experience from commissioning this major telescope upgrade and the innovative instrumentation suite for HETDEX.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Galactic Distribution of Phosphorus: A Survey of 163 Disk and Halo Stars*

Phosphorus (P) is a critical element for life on Earth, yet the cosmic production sites of P are relatively uncertain. To understand how P has evolved in the solar neighborhood, we measured abundances for 163 FGK stars over a range of –1.09 < [Fe/H] < 0.47 using observations from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder instrument on the Hobby–Eberly Telescope. Atmospheric parameters were calculated by fitting a combination of astrometry, photometry, and Fe I line equivalent widths. Phosphorus abundances were measured by matching synthetic spectra to a P I feature at 10529.52 Å. Our [P/Fe] ratios show that chemical evolution models generally underpredict P over the observed metallicity range. Additionally, we find that the [P/Fe] differs by ~0.1 dex between thin disk and thick disk stars that were identified with kinematics. The P abundances were compared with α-elements, iron-peak, odd-Z, and s-process elements, and we found that the evolution of P in the disk most strongly resembles that of the α-elements. We also find that molar P/C and N/C ratios for our sample match the scatter seen from other abundance studies. Finally, we measure a [P/Fe] = 0.09 ± 0.1 ratio in one low-α halo star and probable Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus member, an abundance ratio ~0.3–0.5 dex lower than the other Milky Way disk and halo stars at similar metallicities. Overall, we find that P is likely most significantly produced by massive stars in core-collapse supernovae, based on the largest P abundance survey to date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Magnetized Winds of M-type Stars and Star–Planet Magnetic Interactions: Uncertainties and Modeling Strategy

M-type stars are the most common stars in the Universe. They are ideal hosts for the search of exoplanets in the habitable zone (HZ), as their small size and low temperature make the HZ much closer-in than their solar twins. Harboring very deep convective layers, they also usually exhibit very intense magnetic fields. Understanding their environment, in particular their coronal and wind properties, is thus very important, as they might be very different from what is observed in the solar system. The mass-loss rate of M-type stars is poorly known observationally, and recent attempts to estimate it for some of them (e.g., TRAPPIST-1 and Proxima Centauri) can vary by an order of magnitude. In this work, we revisit the stellar wind properties of M dwarfs in the light of the latest estimates of $\dot{M}$ through Lyα absorption at the astropause and slingshot prominences. We outline a modeling strategy to estimate the mass-loss rate, radiative loss, and wind speed, with uncertainties, based on an Alfvén-wave-driven stellar wind model. We find that it is very likely that several TRAPPIST-1 planets lie within the Alfvén surface, which implies that these planets experience star–planet magnetic interactions (SPMIs). We also find that SPMIs between Proxima Cen b and its host star could be the reason for recently observed radio emissions.

M stars↗

The evolution of the atmosphere of the earth

Computer simulations of the evolution of the earth's atmospheric composition and surface temperature have been carried out. The program took into account changes in the solar luminosity, variations in the earth's albedo, the greenhouse effect, variation in the biomass, and a variety of geochemical processes. Results indicate that prior to two billion years ago the earth had a partially reduced atmosphere, which included N2, CO2, reduced carbon compounds, some NH3, but no free H2. Surface temperatures were higher than now, due to a large greenhouse effect. When free O2 appeared the temperature fell sharply. Had earth been only slightly further from the sun, runaway glaciation would have occurred at that time. Simulations also indicate that a runaway greenhouse would have occurred early in earth's history had earth been only a few percent closer to the sun. It therefore appears that, taking into account the possibilities of either runaway glaciation or a runaway greenhouse effect, the continuously habitable zone about a solar-type star is rather narrow, extending only from roughly 0.95 to 1.01 AU.

Hart, M. H.↗

Runaway greenhouse atmospheres: Applications to Earth and Venus

Runaway greenhouse atmospheres are discussed from a theoretical standpoint and with respect to various practical situation in which they might occur. The following subject areas are covered: (1) runaway greenhouse atmospheres; (2) moist greenhouse atmospheres; (3) loss of water from Venus; (4) steam atmosphere during accretion; and (5) the continuously habitable zone.

Kasting, James F.↗

Sensitivity of the terrestrial planet finder

A key long-term goal of NASA's Origins program is the detection and characterization of habitable planets orbiting stars within the solar neighborhood. A cold, space-borne interferometer operating in the mid-infrared with a approx. 75 m baseline can null the light of a parent star and detect the million-times fainter radiation from an Earth-like planet located in the "habitable zone" around stars as far as 15 pc away. Such an interferometer, designated the Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) by NASA, could even detect atmospheric signatures of species such as CO2, O3, and H2O indicative of either the possibility or presence of primitive life. This talk highlights some of the sensitivity issues affecting the detectability of terrestrial planets. Sensitivity calculations show that a system consisting of 2 m apertures operating at 5 AU or 4 m apertures operating at 1 AU can detect terrestrial planets in reasonable integration times for levels of exo-zodiacal emission up to 10 times that seen in our solar system (hereafter denoted as 10xSS). Additionally, simulations show that confusion noise from structures in the exo-zodiacal cloud should not impede planet detection until the exo-zodiacal emission reaches the 10xSS level.

Beichman, Charles↗

Transit of Extrasolar Planets

During the past five years we have pursued the detection of extrasolar planets by the photometric transit method, i.e. the detection of a planet by watching for a drop in the brightness of the light as it crosses in front of a star. The planetary orbit must cross the line-of-sight and so most systems will not be lined up for such a transit to ever occur. However, we have looked at eclipsing binary systems which are already edge-on. Such systems must be very small in size as this makes the differential light change due to a transit much greater for a given planet size (the brightness difference will be proportional to the area of the transiting planet to the disc area of the star). Also, the planet forming region should be closer to the star as small stars are generally less luminous (that is, if the same thermal regime for planet formation applies as in the solar system). This led to studies of the habitable zone around other stars, as well. Finally, we discovered that our data could be used to detect giant planets without transits as we had been carefully timing the eclipses of the stars (using a GPS antenna for time) and this will drift by being offset by any giant planets orbiting around the system, as well. The best summary of our work may be to just summarize the 21 refereed papers produced during the time of this grant. This will be done is chronological order and in each section separately.

Doyle, Laurance R.↗