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Baryonic dark clusters in galactic halos and their observable consequences

We consider the possibility that approximately 10% of the mass of a typical galaxy halo is in the form of massive (approximately 10(exp 7) solar masses), compact (escape speeds approximately 100 km/s) baryonic clusters made of neutron stars (approximately 10% by mass), black holes (less than or approximately equal to 1%) and brown dwarfs, asteroids, and other low-mass debris (approximately 90%). These general properties are consistent with several different observational and phenomenological constraints on cluster properties subject to the condition that neutron stars comprise approximately 1% of the total halo mass. Such compact, dark clusters could be the sites of a variety of collisional phenomena involving neutron stars. We find that integrated out to the Hubble distance approximately one neutron star-neutron star or neutron star-black hole collision occurs daily. Of order 0.1-1 asteroid-neutron star collisions may also happen daily in the halo of the Milky Way if there is roughly equal cluster mass per logarithmic particle mass interval between asteroids and brown dwarfs. These event rates are comparable to the frequency of gamma-ray burst detections by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the Compton Observatory, implying that if dark halo clusters are the sites of most gamma-ray bursts, perhaps approximately 90% of all bursts are extragalactic, but approximately 10% are galactic. It is possible that dark clusters of the kind discussed here could be detected directly by the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) or Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF). If the clusters considered in this paper exist, they should produce spatially correlated gravitational microlensing of stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). If 10% of the halo is in the form of dark baryonic clusters, and the remaining 90% is in brown dwarfs and other dark objects which are either unclustered or collected into low-mass clusters, then we expect that two events within approximately 1 min of one another are likely to be seen after a total of order 20-30 microlenses have been detected.

Wasserman, Ira↗

An Overview of the NASA ADM-Aeolus Cal/Val Test Flight Campaign

Lidars are uniquely capable of collecting high precision and high spatio-temporal observations that have been used for atmospheric process studies from the ground, aircraft, and space for over 30 years. The Atmospheric Dynamics Mission Aeolus (ADM-Aeolus), the first-ever spaceborne Doppler wind lidar, was developed by the European Space Agency and launched in August 2018. The ADM-Aeolus Atmospheric Laser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN) observes profiles of the component of the wind vector and aerosol optical properties along the instrument’s line-of-sight direction on a global scale. Two airborne lidar systems have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center in recent years that collect measurements in support of several NASA Earth Science Division focus areas. The Doppler Aerosol WiNd (DAWN) lidar measures vertical profiles of horizontal wind speed and direction. The High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) measure high resolution profiles of atmospheric water vapor (WV) and aerosol and cloud optical properties. Though new space-based missions with advanced capabilities such as Aeolus are continuously being conceived and developed, there are limitations in terms of spatial and vertical detail and measurement precision that can be accomplished from space, thus airborne remote sensing observations like those from DAWN and HALO are required to fill these observational gaps as well as to calibrate and validate space-based measurements. Over a two-week period in April 2019 during their Aeolus Cal/Val Test Flight campaign, NASA conducted five research flights over the Eastern Pacific Ocean with the DC-8 aircraft to 1) demonstrate the DAWN Doppler wind lidar, HALO high spectral resolution lidar aerosol/cloud measurement and differential absorption lidar WV measurement capabilities across a range of atmospheric conditions, 2) demonstrate Aeolus Cal/Val flight strategies and compare DAWN and HALO measurements with Aeolus to gain an initial perspective of Aeolus performance, and 3) demonstrate how atmospheric dynamic processes can be resolved and better understood through simultaneous observations of wind, WV, and aerosol profile observations, coupled with numerical model and other remote sensing observations. This paper provides a brief description of the DAWN and HALO instruments, discusses the synergistic observations collected across a wide range of atmospheric conditions sampled during the DC-8 flights, and a summary of the validation of DAWN, HALO, and Aeolus observations and comparisons.

Kristopher M. Bedka↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-32105-DND

NASA Langley Research Center is developing the High-Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) system to address the observational needs of NASA’s weather, climate, carbon cycle, and atmospheric composition focus areas. HALO is a multi-function airborne lidar being developed to measure atmospheric H2O and CH4 mixing ratios and aerosol/cloud/ocean optical properties using the Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) and High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) techniques, respectively. To respond to a wide range of airborne process studies, HALO can be rapidly reconfigured to provide either CH4 DIAL+HSRL, H2O DIAL+HSRL, or CH4 DIAL+H2O DIAL measurements using three different laser transmitters. During spring 2018 NASA Langley demonstrated the world’s first combined airborne CH4 DIAL and HSRL measurements from the Langley King Air aircraft during four test flights. The HALO methane configuration also participated in the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS) air quality field campaign on the NASA B200 aircraft. The flown instrument configuration employed the DIAL technique at 1645 nm for column and multi-layer range resolved measurements of CH4 concentrations, and the HSRL technique at 532 nm to make independent, unambiguous retrievals of aerosol extinction and backscatter. It also employed the standard backscatter technique at 1064 nm and is polarization-sensitive at the 1064/532 nm wavelengths. The addition of the HSRL channels provides context to the airborne CH4 DIAL measurements such as source attribution, transport, and vertical mixing through mixed layer height retrievals, as well as providing the critical capability to validate aerosol induced biases from passive space-borne measurements of column CH4. In this presentation we focus on the instrument capabilities, initial CH4 measurements over oil and gas production sites in coordination with the ACT-America campaign, CH4 signatures over the Long Island Sound domain during the LISTOS campaign, and prospects for future airborne campaigns with cohosted payloads consisting of active and passive sensors.

Rory Barton-Grimley↗

New Constraints on the Dark Matter Density Profiles of Dwarf Galaxies from Proper Motions of Globular Cluster Streams

The central density profiles in dwarf galaxy halos depend strongly on the nature of dark matter (DM). Recently, in Malhan et al. we employed N-body simulations to show that the cuspy cold DM subhalos predicted by cosmological simulations can be differentiated from cored subhalos using the properties of accreted globular cluster (GC) streams since these GCs experience tidal stripping within their parent halos prior to accretion onto the Milky Way. We previously found that clusters that are accreted within cuspy subhalos produce streams with larger physical widths and higher dispersions in line-of-sight velocity and angular momentum than streams that are accreted within cored subhalos. Here, we use the same suite of simulations to demonstrate that the dispersion in the tangential velocities of streams (${\sigma }_{{v}_{\mathrm{Tan}}}$) is also sensitive to the central DM density profiles of their parent dwarfs and GCs that they were accreted from; cuspy subhalos produce streams with larger ${\sigma }_{{v}_{\mathrm{Tan}}}$ than those accreted inside cored subhalos. Using Gaia EDR3 observations of multiple GC streams we compare their ${\sigma }_{{v}_{\mathrm{Tan}}}$ values with simulations. The measured ${\sigma }_{{v}_{\mathrm{Tan}}}$ values are consistent with both an “in situ” origin and with accretion inside cored subhalos of M ~ 10 8–9 M ⊙ (or very low-mass cuspy subhalos of mass ~10 8 M ⊙ ). Despite the large current uncertainties in ${\sigma }_{{v}_{\mathrm{Tan}}}$, we find a low probability that any of the progenitor GCs were accreted from cuspy subhalos of M ≳ 10 9 M ⊙ . The uncertainties on Gaia tangential velocity measurements are expected to decrease in future and will allow for stronger constraints on subhalo DM density profiles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

New Constraints on the Dark Matter Density Profiles of Dwarf Galaxies from Proper Motions of Globular Cluster Streams

The central density profiles in dwarf galaxy halos depend strongly on the nature of dark matter (DM). Recently, in Malhan et al. we employed N-body simulations to show that the cuspy cold DM subhalos predicted by cosmological simulations can be differentiated from cored subhalos using the properties of accreted globular cluster (GC) streams since these GCs experience tidal stripping within their parent halos prior to accretion onto the Milky Way. We previously found that clusters that are accreted within cuspy subhalos produce streams with larger physical widths and higher dispersions in line-of-sight velocity and angular momentum than streams that are accreted within cored subhalos. Here, we use the same suite of simulations to demonstrate that the dispersion in the tangential velocities of streams (σ 𝜈 Tan) is also sensitive to the central DM density profiles of their parent dwarfs and GCs that they were accreted from; cuspy subhalos produce streams with larger σ 𝜈 Tan than those accreted inside cored subhalos. Using Gaia EDR3 observations of multiple GC streams we compare their (σ 𝜈 Tan) values with simulations. The measured (σ 𝜈 Tan) values are consistent with both an “in situ” origin and with accretion inside cored subhalos of M ∼ 10(8–9) Me (or very low-mass cuspy subhalos of mass ∼10(8) Mꙩ ). Despite the large current uncertainties in σ 𝜈 Tan, we find a low probability that any of the progenitor GCs were accreted from cuspy subhalos of M ≳ 10 (9) Mꙩ. The uncertainties on Gaia tangential velocity measurements are expected to decrease in future and will allow for stronger constraints on subhalo DM density profiles.

Khyati Malhan↗

The X-Ray Halo Scaling Relations of Supermassive Black Holes

We carry out a comprehensive Bayesian correlation analysis between hot halos and direct masses of supermassive black holes (SMBHs), by retrieving the X-ray plasma properties (temperature, luminosity, density, pressure, and masses) over galactic to cluster scales for 85 diverse systems. We find new key scalings, with the tightest relation being −, followed by −. The tighter scatter (down to 0.2 dex) and stronger correlation coefficient of all the X-ray halo scalings compared with the optical counterparts (as the −) suggest that plasma halos play a more central role than stars in tracing and growing SMBHs (especially those that are ultramassive). Moreover, correlates better with the gas mass than dark matter mass. We show the important role of the environment, morphology, and relic galaxies/coronae, as well as the main departures from virialization/self-similarity via the optical/X-ray fundamental planes. We test the three major channels for SMBH growth: hot/Bondi-like models have inconsistent anticorrelation with X-ray halos and too low feeding; cosmological simulations find SMBH mergers as subdominant over most of cosmic time and too rare to induce a central-limit-theorem effect; the scalings are consistent with chaotic cold accretion, the rain of matter condensing out of the turbulent X-ray halos that sustains a long-term self-regulated feedback loop. The new correlations are major observational constraints for models of SMBH feeding/feedback in galaxies, groups, and clusters (e.g., to test cosmological hydrodynamical simulations), and enable the study of SMBHs not only through X-rays, but also via the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect (Compton parameter), lensing (total masses), and cosmology (gas fractions).

Supermassive black holes↗

Probing the Galactic halo with RR Lyrae stars – II. The substructures of the Milky Way

ABSTRACT We identify substructures of the Galactic halo using 3003 type ab RR Lyrae stars with six-dimensional position–velocity information from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope and the Gaia Early Data Release 3. Based on this information, we define the separation of any two of the stars in the integrals of motion space and we identify substructures by utilizing the friends-of-friends algorithm. We identify members belonging to several known substructures: the Sagittarius stream, the Gaia-Enceladus-Sausage (GES), the Sequoia and the Helmi streams. In addition to these known substructures, there are three other substructures possibly associated with globular clusters NGC 5272, 6656 and 5024, respectively. Finally, we also find three remaining unknown substructures, one of which has large angular momentum and a mean metallicity −2.13 dex, which may be a new substructure. As for the GES, we find that it accounts for a large part of substructures in the inner halo and the apocentre distance is in the range 10–34 kpc, which suggests that the GES is mainly distributed in the inner halo. The near one-third proportion of the GES and the peak value of 20 kpc of the apocentre distance suggest that the GES could account for the break in the density profile of the Galactic halo at the Galactocentric distance ~20–25 kpc. The similarity when comparing the kinematic properties of the GES with the Hercules–Aquila Cloud and Virgo Overdensity suggests that the three substructures may have similar origins.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A study on the clustering properties of radio-selected sources in the Lockman Hole region at 325 MHz

Studying the spatial distribution of extragalactic source populations is vital in understanding the matter distribution in the Universe. It also enables understanding the cosmological evolution of dark matter density fields and the relationship between dark matter and luminous matter. Clustering studies are also required for EoR foreground studies since it affects the relevant angular scales. This paper investigates the angular and spatial clustering properties and the bias parameter of radio-selected sources in the Lockman Hole field at 325 MHz. The data probes sources with fluxes ≳0.3 mJy within a radius of 1.8° around the phase centre of a 6° × 6° mosaic. Based on their radio luminosity, the sources are classified into Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) and Star-Forming Galaxies (SFGs). Clustering and bias parameters are determined for the combined populations and the classified sources. The spatial correlation length and the bias of AGNs are greater than SFGs- indicating that more massive haloes host the former. This study is the first reported estimate of the clustering property of sources at 325 MHz, intermediate between the pre-existing studies at high and low-frequency bands. It also probes a well-studied deep field at an unexplored frequency with moderate depth and area. Clustering studies require such observations along different lines of sight, with various fields and data sets across frequencies to avoid cosmic variance and systematics. Thus, an extragalactic deep field has been studied in this work to contribute to this knowledge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Priors on red galaxy stochasticity from hybrid effective field theory

ABSTRACT We investigate the stochastic properties of typical red galaxy samples in a controlled numerical environment. We use halo occupation distribution (HOD) modelling to create mock realizations of three separate bright red galaxy samples consistent with data sets used for clustering and lensing analyses in modern galaxy surveys. Second-order Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT) is used as a field-level forward model to describe the full statistical distribution of these tracer samples, and their stochastic power spectra are directly measured and compared to the Poisson shot-noise prediction. While all of the galaxy samples we consider are hosted within haloes with sub-Poisson stochasticity, we observe that the galaxy samples themselves possess stochasticities that range from sub-Poisson to super-Poisson, in agreement with predictions from the halo model. As an application of our methodology, we place priors on the expected degree of non-Poisson stochasticity in cosmological analyses using such samples. We expect these priors will be useful in reducing the complexity of the full parameter space for future analyses using second-order Lagrangian bias models. More generally, the techniques outlined here present the first application of HEFT methods to characterize models of the galaxy–halo connection at the field level, revealing new connections between once-disparate modelling frameworks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Extracting dark-matter velocities from halo masses: A reconstruction conjecture

Increasing attention has recently focused on nontraditional dark-matter production mechanisms which result in primordial dark-matter velocity distributions with highly nonthermal shapes. Here, in this paper, we undertake an assessment of how the detailed shape of a general dark-matter velocity distribution impacts structure formation in the nonlinear regime. In particular, we investigate the impact on the halo-mass and subhalo-mass functions, as well as on astrophysical observables such as satellite and cluster-number counts. We find that many of the standard expectations no longer hold in situations in which this velocity distribution takes a highly nontrivial, even multimodal shape. For example, we find that the nominal free-streaming scale alone becomes insufficient to characterize the effect of free-streaming on structure formation. In addition, we propose a simple one-line conjecture which can be used to “reconstruct” the primordial dark-matter velocity distribution directly from the shape of the halo-mass function. Although our conjecture is completely heuristic, we show that it successfully reproduces the salient features of the underlying dark-matter velocity distribution even for nontrivial distributions which are highly nonthermal and/or multimodal, such as might occur for nonminimal dark sectors. Moreover, since our approach relies only on the halo-mass function, our conjecture provides a method of probing dark-matter properties even for scenarios in which the dark and visible sectors interact only gravitationally.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling intrinsic galaxy alignment in the MICE simulation

The intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies is potentially a major limitation in deriving cosmological constraints from weak lensing surveys. In order to investigate this effect, we assign intrinsic shapes and orientations to galaxies in the light-cone output of the MICE simulation, spanning ~ 5000 deg 2 and reaching redshift Z = 1.4. This assignment is based on a semianalytic IA model that uses photometric properties of galaxies as well as the spin and shape of their host halos. Advancing on previous work, we include more realistic distributions of galaxy shapes and a luminosity-dependent galaxy-halo alignment. The IA model parameters are calibrated against COSMOS and BOSS LOWZ observations. The null detection of IA in observations of blue galaxies is accounted for by setting random orientations for these objects. We compare the two-point alignment statistics measured in the simulation against predictions from the analytical IA models NLA and TATT over a wide range of scales, redshifts, and luminosities for red and blue galaxies separately. We find that both models fit the measurements well at scales above 8h -1 Mpc, while TATT outperforms NLA at smaller scales. The IA parameters derived from our fits are in broad agreement with various observational constraints from red galaxies. Finally, we build a realistic source sample, mimicking DES Year 3 observations and use it to predict the IA contamination to the observed shear statistics. We find this prediction to be within the measurement uncertainty, which might be a consequence of the random alignment of blue galaxies in the simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hot coronae around early-type galaxies

The analysis of the X-ray emission from a sample of 55 bright early-type galaxies shows that hot gaseous coronae are a common and perhaps ubiquitous feature of such systems. The X-ray emission can be explained most naturally as thermal bremsstrahlung from hot gas which may be accumulated from mass loss during normal stellar evolution. The presence of these coronae shows that matter previously thought to be expelled in a galactic wind is instead stored in a hot galactic corona which may be heated and powered by supernova explosions. Perhaps the single most important feature of these coronae is that they provide a unique tracer of the gravitational potential in the outer regions of bright early-type galaxies. In this paper the X-ray properties of these coronae and their implications for the presence of massive dark halos around individual early-type galaxies are discussed. Total masses of early-type galaxies up to 5 trillion solar masses are found.

Forman, W.↗

Solar radiative transfer in cirrus clouds. I - Single-scattering and optical properties of hexagonal ice crystals. II - Theory and computations of multiple scattering in an anisotropic medium

The light scattering and absorption programs of Cai and Liou (1982) and Takano and Jaweera (1985) are extended to include hexagonal ice crystals randomly and horizontally oriented in space. The scattering and polarization results for the ice crystals are calculated. The results are compared with measurement data. The single-scattering properties for horizontally oriented columns and plates are presented and used to explain halos and arcs observed in the atmopshere. In the second section, the theory and computations for multiple scattering in cirrus clouds containing oriented ice crystals are presented. The radiative transfer in clouds composed of horizontally oriented ice crystals is formulated. Also, reflected and transmitted intensities, planetary albedo, and polarization in multiple scattering by ice crystals are discussed.

Takano, Yoshihide↗

Ly-alpha emission from cooling flows and measures of the dust content of rich clusters of galaxies

Ly-alpha and UV continuum fluxes from measurements across the emission-line regions of 10 'cooling flow' clusters of galaxies are tabulated. Comparison of Ly-alpha emission fluxes obtained with the IUE satellite with optical Balmer emission fluxes is used to demonstrate that the lines of sight to the centers of these clusters show an average excess reddening E(B-V) about 0.19 above foreground extinction. While some fraction of this may derive from localized extinction in the central (cooling flow) region of the cluster, a substantial portion of this effect should arise from an extended cluster component. The case where this extinction originates in the hot intracluster gas of the cluster halo is considered. Estimates for the corresponding 100-micron infrared emission, assuming grain properties similar to those of interstellar grains, place the expected emission at the about 1/2 Jy level for nearby clusters. Measurements from IRAS pointed mode observations of clusters are consistent with the expected values. These results are used to show that ISO and SIRTF may detect clusters to cosmological distances.

Hu, Esther M.↗

Radio fossils, relics, and haloes in Abell 3266: cluster archaeology with ASKAP-EMU and the ATCA

ABSTRACT Abell 3266 is a massive and complex merging galaxy cluster that exhibits significant substructure. We present new, highly sensitive radio continuum observations of Abell 3266 performed with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (0.8–1.1 GHz) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array (1.1–3.1 GHz). These deep observations provide new insights into recently reported diffuse non-thermal phenomena associated with the intracluster medium, including a ‘wrong-way’ relic, a fossil plasma source, and an as-yet unclassified central diffuse ridge, which we reveal comprises the brightest part of a large-scale radio halo detected here for the first time. The ‘wrong-way’ relic is highly atypical of its kind: it exhibits many classical signatures of a shock-related radio relic, while at the same time exhibiting strong spectral steepening. While radio relics are generally consistent with a quasi-stationary shock scenario, the ‘wrong-way’ relic is not. We study the spectral properties of the fossil plasma source; it exhibits an ultrasteep and highly curved radio spectrum, indicating an extremely aged electron population. The larger scale radio halo fills much of the cluster centre, and presents a strong connection between the thermal and non-thermal components of the intracluster medium, along with evidence of substructure. Whether the central diffuse ridge is simply a brighter component of the halo, or a mini-halo, remains an open question. Finally, we study the morphological and spectral properties of the multiple complex radio galaxies in this cluster in unprecedented detail, tracing their evolutionary history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Brightest Cluster Galaxy ellipticity as proxy for halo shape: Orientation bias, assembly bias, and potential selection effects in SZ-selected clusters

The orientation of triaxial galaxy clusters with respect to the line-of-sight is expected to be one of the prime sources of scatter and potential bias in optical observables (e.g., richness and weak-lensing signal) of galaxy clusters. In this work, we use the observed shape of the central Brightest Cluster Galaxy (BCG) as proxy for the orientation along the line-of-sight for clusters selected via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) surveys, matched to optically selected clusters from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES). We construct two samples of clusters that are designed to be identical in SZ mass estimate and redshift but with the roundest vs. the most elliptical BCGs, which we expect to correspond to BCGs (and clusters) with major axes aligned along the line-of-sight vs. in the plane of the sky, respectively. We find that the optical richness of round-BCG clusters is $\sim 10$% larger than that of elliptical-BCG clusters, in agreement with the expectation from projection effects and presenting the first such detection in data. The density profiles, however, are not in agreement with the expectation from projection effects: the 1-halo term (below $6~h^{-1}\rm{Mpc}$) of both the weak-lensing and galaxy density profiles are the same for the subsamples, contrary to previous studies based on X-ray selected clusters. In the 2-halo regime (above $6~h^{-1}\rm{Mpc}$), we find a significant excess of the elliptical-BCG cluster profiles compared to the round-BCG cluster profiles, which is the opposite of the expectation from numerical simulations. We hypothesize that the intrinsic shape of the BCG reflects not just the orientation angle, but also intrinsic properties of the cluster which can affect both the SZ signal and the amplitude of the 2-halo term.

Srinivasan, Radhakrishnan [SUNY, Stony Brook] (ORC↗

Ultraviolet interstellar absorption lines in the LMC: Searching for hidden SNRs

Strong x-ray emission detected in Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) superbubbles has been explained as the result of interior supernova remnants (SNRs) hitting the dense superbubble shell. Such SNRs cannot be found using conventional criteria. We thus investigate the possibility of using the interstellar absorption properties in the ultraviolet (UV) as a diagnostic of hidden SNR shocks. The International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) archives provide the database for this pilot study. They contain high-dispersion spectra of several stars in x-ray bright superbubbles. To distinguish the effects of SNR shocks from those of local stellar winds and a global hot halo around the LMC, we included control objects in different environments. We find that almost all interstellar absorption properties can be explained by the interstellar environment associated with the objects. Summarizing the two most important results of this study: (1) a large velocity shift between the high-ionization species (C IV and Si IV) and the low-ionization species (S II, Si II, and C II*) is a diagnostic of hidden SNR shocks; however, the absence of a velocity shift does not preclude the existence of SNR shocks; (2) there is no evidence that the LMC is uniformly surrounded by hot gas; hot gas is preferentially found associated with large interstellar structures like superbubbles and supergiant shells, which may extend to large distances from the plane.

Chu, You-Hua↗

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Dark matter direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS cold dark matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way–mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local dark matter speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the dark matter speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the standard halo model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way–mass halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗