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177 records · Page 10

Integrating multi-modal remote sensing, deep learning, and attention mechanisms for yield prediction in plant breeding experiments

In both plant breeding and crop management, interpretability plays a crucial role in instilling trust in AI-driven approaches and enabling the provision of actionable insights. The primary objective of this research is to explore and evaluate the potential contributions of deep learning network architectures that employ stacked LSTM for end-of-season maize grain yield prediction. A secondary aim is to expand the capabilities of these networks by adapting them to better accommodate and leverage the multi-modality properties of remote sensing data. In this study, a multi-modal deep learning architecture that assimilates inputs from heterogeneous data streams, including high-resolution hyperspectral imagery, LiDAR point clouds, and environmental data, is proposed to forecast maize crop yields. The architecture includes attention mechanisms that assign varying levels of importance to different modalities and temporal features that, reflect the dynamics of plant growth and environmental interactions. The interpretability of the attention weights is investigated in multi-modal networks that seek to both improve predictions and attribute crop yield outcomes to genetic and environmental variables. This approach also contributes to increased interpretability of the model's predictions. The temporal attention weight distributions highlighted relevant factors and critical growth stages that contribute to the predictions. The results of this study affirm that the attention weights are consistent with recognized biological growth stages, thereby substantiating the network's capability to learn biologically interpretable features. Accuracies of the model's predictions of yield ranged from 0.82-0.93 R 2 ref in this genetics-focused study, further highlighting the potential of attention-based models. Further, this research facilitates understanding of how multi-modality remote sensing aligns with the physiological stages of maize. The proposed architecture shows promise in improving predictions and offering interpretable insights into the factors affecting maize crop yields, while demonstrating the impact of data collection by different modalities through the growing season. By identifying relevant factors and critical growth stages, the model's attention weights provide valuable information that can be used in both plant breeding and crop management. The consistency of attention weights with biological growth stages reinforces the potential of deep learning networks in agricultural applications, particularly in leveraging remote sensing data for yield prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the use of hyperspectral and LiDAR UAV time series data for explaining/interpreting plant growth stages within deep learning networks and forecasting plot-level maize grain yield using late fusion modalities with attention mechanisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Strawman Philosophical Guide for Developing International Network of GPM GV Sites

The creation of an international network of ground validation (GV) sites that will support the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission's international science programme will require detailed planning of mechanisms for exchanging technical information, GV data products, and scientific results. An important component of the planning will be the philosophical guide under which the network will grow and emerge as a successful element of the GPM Mission. This philosophical guide should be able to serve the mission in developing scientific pathways for ground validation research which will ensure the highest possible quality measurement record of global precipitation products. The philosophical issues, in this regard, partly stem from the financial architecture under which the GV network will be developed, i.e., each participating country will provide its own financial support through committed institutions -- regardless of whether a national or international space agency is involved.At the 1st International GPM Ground Validation Workshop held in Abingdon, UK in November-2003, most of the basic tenants behind the development of the international GV network were identified and discussed. Therefore, with this progress in mind, this presentation is intended to put forth a strawman philosophical guide supporting the development of the international network of GPM GV sites, noting that the initial progress has been reported in the Proceedings of the 1st International GPM GV Workshop -- available online. The central philosophical issues themselves, all flow from the fact that each participating institution can only bring to the table, GV facilities and scientific personnel that are affordable to the sanctioning (funding) national agency (be that a research, research-support, or operational agency). This situation imposes on the network, heterogeneity in the measuring sensors, data collection periods, data collection procedures, data latencies, and data reporting capabilities. Therefore, in order for the network to be effective in supporting the central scientific goals of the GPM mission, there must be a basic agreed upon doctrine under which the network participants function vis-a-vis: (1) an overriding set of general scientific requirements, (2) a minimal set of policies governing the free flow of GV data between the scientific participants, (3) a few basic definitions concerning the prioritization of measurements and their respective value to the mission, (4) a few basic procedures concerning data formats, data reporting procedures, data access, and data archiving, and (5) a simple means to differentiate GV sites according to their level of effort and ability to perform near real-time data acquisition - data reporting tasks. Most important, in case they choose to operate as a near real-time data collection-data distribution site, they would be expected to operate under a fairly narrowly defined protocol needed to ensure smooth GV support operations. This presentation will suggest measures responsive to items (1) - (5) from which to proceed,. In addition, this presentation will seek to stimulate discussion and debate concerning how much heterogeneity is tolerable within the eventual GV site network, given that the any individual GV site can only be considered scientifically useful if it supports the achievement of the central GPM Mission goals. Only ground validation research that has a direct connection to the space mission should be considered justifiable given the overarching scientific goals of the mission. Therefore each site will have to seek some level of accommodation to what the GPM Mission requires in the way of retrieval error characterization, retrieval error detection and reporting, and generation of GV data products that support assessment and improvement of the mission's standard precipitation retrieval algorithms. These are all important scientific issues that will be best resolved in open scientific debate.

Smith, Eric A.↗

An Algorithm for the Retrieval of 30-m Snow-Free Albedo from Landsat Surface Reflectance and MODIS BRDF

We present a new methodology to generate 30-m resolution land surface albedo using Landsat surface reflectance and anisotropy information from concurrent MODIS 500-m observations. Albedo information at fine spatial resolution is particularly useful for quantifying climate impacts associated with land use change and ecosystem disturbance. The derived white-sky and black-sky spectral albedos maybe used to estimate actual spectral albedos by taking into account the proportion of direct and diffuse solar radiation arriving at the ground. A further spectral-to-broadband conversion based on extensive radiative transfer simulations is applied to produce the broadband albedos at visible, near infrared, and shortwave regimes. The accuracy of this approach has been evaluated using 270 Landsat scenes covering six field stations supported by the SURFace RADiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM/SGP) network. Comparison with field measurements shows that Landsat 30-m snow-free shortwave albedos from all seasons generally achieve an absolute accuracy of +/-0.02 - 0.05 for these validation sites during available clear days in 2003-2005,with a root mean square error less than 0.03 and a bias less than 0.02. This level of accuracy has been regarded as sufficient for driving global and regional climate models. The Landsat-based retrievals have also been compared to the operational 16-day MODIS albedo produced every 8-days from MODIS on Terra and Aqua (MCD43A). The Landsat albedo provides more detailed landscape texture, and achieves better agreement (correlation and dynamic range) with in-situ data at the validation stations, particularly when the stations include a heterogeneous mix of surface covers.

Shuai, Yanmin↗

Parallelization of Rocket Engine System Software (Press)

The main goal is to assess parallelization requirements for the Rocket Engine Numeric Simulator (RENS) project which, aside from gathering information on liquid-propelled rocket engines and setting forth requirements, involve a large FORTRAN based package at NASA Lewis Research Center and TDK software developed by SUBR/UWF. The ultimate aim is to develop, test, integrate, and suitably deploy a family of software packages on various aspects and facets of rocket engines using liquid-propellants. At present, all project efforts by the funding agency, NASA Lewis Research Center, and the HBCU participants are disseminated over the internet using world wide web home pages. Considering obviously expensive methods of actual field trails, the benefits of software simulators are potentially enormous. When realized, these benefits will be analogous to those provided by numerous CAD/CAM packages and flight-training simulators. According to the overall task assignments, Hampton University's role is to collect all available software, place them in a common format, assess and evaluate, define interfaces, and provide integration. Most importantly, the HU's mission is to see to it that the real-time performance is assured. This involves source code translations, porting, and distribution. The porting will be done in two phases: First, place all software on Cray XMP platform using FORTRAN. After testing and evaluation on the Cray X-MP, the code will be translated to C + + and ported to the parallel nCUBE platform. At present, we are evaluating another option of distributed processing over local area networks using Sun NFS, Ethernet, TCP/IP. Considering the heterogeneous nature of the present software (e.g., first started as an expert system using LISP machines) which now involve FORTRAN code, the effort is expected to be quite challenging.

Cezzar, Ruknet↗

Provenance in Data Interoperability for Multi-Sensor Intercomparison

As our inventory of Earth science data sets grows, the ability to compare, merge and fuse multiple datasets grows in importance. This requires a deeper data interoperability than we have now. Efforts such as Open Geospatial Consortium and OPeNDAP (Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol) have broken down format barriers to interoperability; the next challenge is the semantic aspects of the data. Consider the issues when satellite data are merged, cross-calibrated, validated, inter-compared and fused. We must match up data sets that are related, yet different in significant ways: the phenomenon being measured, measurement technique, location in space-time or quality of the measurements. If subtle distinctions between similar measurements are not clear to the user, results can be meaningless or lead to an incorrect interpretation of the data. Most of these distinctions trace to how the data came to be: sensors, processing and quality assessment. For example, monthly averages of satellite-based aerosol measurements often show significant discrepancies, which might be due to differences in spatio- temporal aggregation, sampling issues, sensor biases, algorithm differences or calibration issues. Provenance information must be captured in a semantic framework that allows data inter-use tools to incorporate it and aid in the intervention of comparison or merged products. Semantic web technology allows us to encode our knowledge of measurement characteristics, phenomena measured, space-time representation, and data quality attributes in a well-structured, machine-readable ontology and rulesets. An analysis tool can use this knowledge to show users the provenance-related distrintions between two variables, advising on options for further data processing and analysis. An additional problem for workflows distributed across heterogeneous systems is retrieval and transport of provenance. Provenance may be either embedded within the data payload, or transmitted from server to client in an out-of-band mechanism. The out of band mechanism is more flexible in the richness of provenance information that can be accomodated, but it relies on a persistent framework and can be difficult for legacy clients to use. We are prototyping the embedded model, incorporating provenance within metadata objects in the data payload. Thus, it always remains with the data. The downside is a limit to the size of provenance metadata that we can include, an issue that will eventually need resolution to encompass the richness of provenance information required for daata intercomparison and merging.

Lynnes, Chris↗

A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model: Overview - Part 1

Knowledge of the amount of water in the soil is of great importance to many earth science disciplines. Soil moisture is a key variable in controlling the exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Thus, soil moisture information is valuable in a wide range of applications including weather and climate, runoff potential and flood control, early warning of droughts, irrigation, crop yield forecasting, soil erosion, reservoir management, geotechnical engineering, and water quality. Despite the importance of soil moisture information, widespread and continuous measurements of soil moisture are not possible today. Although many earth surface conditions can be measured from satellites, we still cannot adequately measure soil moisture from space. Research in soil moisture remote sensing began in the mid 1970s shortly after the surge in satellite development. Recent advances in remote sensing have shown that soil moisture can be measured, at least qualitatively, by several methods. Quantitative measurements of moisture in the soil surface layer have been most successful using both passive and active microwave remote sensing, although complications arise from surface roughness and vegetation type and density. Early attempts to measure soil moisture from space-borne microwave instruments were hindered by what is now considered sub-optimal wavelengths (shorter than 5 cm) and the coarse spatial resolution of the measurements. L-band frequencies between 1 and 3 GHz (10-30 cm) have been deemed optimal for detection of soil moisture in the upper few centimeters of soil. The Electronically Steered Thinned Array Radiometer (ESTAR), an aircraft-based instrument operating a 1,4 GHz, has shown great promise for soil moisture determination. Initiatives are underway to develop a similar instrument for space. Existing space-borne synthetic aperture radars (SARS) operating at C- and L-band have also shown some potential to detect surface wetness. The advantage of radar is its much higher resolution than passive microwave systems, but it is currently hampered by surface roughness effects and the lack of a good algorithm based on a single frequency and single polarization. In addition, its repeat frequency is generally low (about 40 days). In the meantime, two new radiometers offer some hope for remote sensing of soil moisture from space. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), launched in November 1997, possesses a 10.65 GHz channel and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on both the ADEOS-11 and Earth Observing System AM-1 platforms to be launched in 1999 possesses a 6.9 GHz channel. Aside from issues about interference from vegetation, the coarse resolution of these data will provide considerable challenges pertaining to their application. The resolution of TMI is about 45 km and that of AMSR is about 70 km. These resolutions are grossly inconsistent with the scale of soil moisture processes and the spatial variability of factors that control soil moisture. Scale disparities such as these are forcing us to rethink how we assimilate data of various scales in hydrologic models. Of particular interest is how to assimilate soil moisture data by reconciling the scale disparity between what we can expect from present and future remote sensing measurements of soil moisture and modeling soil moisture processes. It is because of this disparity between the resolution of space-based sensors and the scale of data needed for capturing the spatial variability of soil moisture and related properties that remote sensing of soil moisture has not met with more widespread success. Within a single footprint of current sensors at the wavelengths optimal for this application, in most cases there is enormous heterogeneity in soil moisture created by differences in landcover, soils and topography, as well as variability in antecedent precipitation. It is difficult to interpret the meaning of 'mean' soil moisture under such conditions and even more difficult to apply such a value. Because of the non-linear relationships between near-surface soil moisture and other variables of interest, such as surface energy fluxes and runoff, mean soil moisture has little applicability at such large scales. It is for these reasons that the use of remote sensing in conjunction with a hydrologic model appears to be of benefit in capturing the complete spatial and temporal structure of soil moisture. This paper is Part I of a four-part series describing a method for intermittently assimilating remotely-sensed soil moisture information to improve performance of a distributed land surface hydrology model. The method, summarized in section II, involves the following components, each of which is detailed in the indicated section of the paper or subsequent papers in this series: Forward radiative transfer model methods (section II and Part IV); Use of a Kalman filter to assimilate remotely-sensed soil moisture estimates with the model profile (section II and Part IV); Application of a soil hydrology model to capture the continuous evolution of the soil moisture profile within and below the root zone (section III); Statistical aggregation techniques (section IV and Part II); Disaggregation techniques using a neural network approach (section IV and Part III); and Maximum likelihood and Bayesian algorithms for inversely solving for the soil moisture profile in the upper few cm (Part IV).

Crosson, William L.↗

Resilience of the slow component in timescale-separated synchronized oscillators

Physiological networks are usually made of a large number of biological oscillators evolving on a multitude of different timescales. Phase oscillators are particularly useful in the modelling of the synchronization dynamics of such systems. If the coupling is strong enough compared to the heterogeneity of the internal parameters, synchronized states might emerge where phase oscillators start to behave coherently. Here, we focus on the case where synchronized oscillators are divided into a fast and a slow component so that the two subsets evolve on separated timescales. We assess the resilience of the slow component by, first, reducing the dynamics of the fast one using Mori-Zwanzig formalism. Second, we evaluate the variance of the phase deviations when the oscillators in the two components are subject to noise with possibly distinct correlation times. From the general expression for the variance, we consider specific network structures and show how the noise transmission between the fast and slow components is affected. Interestingly, we find that oscillators that are among the most robust when there is only a single timescale, might become the most vulnerable when the system undergoes a timescale separation. We also find that layered networks seem to be insensitive to such timescale separations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Network Anomaly Detection Using Federated Learning

The internet is turning out to be an integral part of every-one's lives as more and more devices are being connected to serve societal needs. Our work is motivated by two ma-jor observations. Firstly, one drawback of connecting to the network is the threat of network attacks that can compromise users' private information, leading to data loss and adversely affecting productivity. There are several traditional security mechanisms to defend against these attacks, such as firewalls, virtual private networks (VPNs), demilitarized zones (DMZs), and vulnerability scanners. One way to prevent these attacks is early detection and prevention. However, these kinds of architecture do not scale very well because of their centralized nature. Secondly, we observe from heuristics and data set distributions that the majority of the requests made to a server are innocuous. Therefore, almost all server request data sets are highly imbalanced, weighted highly towards the harmless requests.

Marfo, William↗

Towards Sheaf Theoretic Analyses for Delay Tolerant Networking

The goal of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is to take a collection of heterogeneous, disparate connections between satellites, space assets, ground stations, and ground infrastructure and bring it together into a cohesive, functioning overlay network. Depending on the systems being considered, one can find links with a one-way light time exceeding minutes (and hours),periodic links which can sometimes be predicted by orbital mechanics, and restrictions based on the variety of capabilities built into these systems. These characteristics preclude traditional network models and routing techniques and have classically led to either rigid routing tables or purely probabilistic models. As the deeper underlying structures remain unknown, development of more DTN-optimized algorithms has lacked the necessary foundation. In a continuation of previous work, the goal of this paper is to identify and study these fundamental structures that exist in delay tolerant networks (DTN), with a focus on space networks. The current routing methodology has been to use contact graph routing (CGR) algorithms. CGR models a series of known contacts as a static graph. For CGR to work, this graph must be globally consistent and must have an accurate picture of the network. Because this is a globally controlled structure, there is little room for flexibility in the event of changes to the network which would naturally occur as the network grows. As a response to the desire for flexibility as the network changes, we introduced the mathematical structure known as sheaves to DTNs last year. The tag-line for sheaves is that they are a mathematically precise way of gluing local data together into unique global data. Thus, sheaves lend extra power to traditional models(and routing algorithms) by taking additional information and merging it, in as consistent a manner as possible, with the representation itself. The clearest example of how Earth-bound networks exhibit behavior that is “sheafy” is link state routers, which build a local-to-global picture of their network by gluing local information together into a global network, exactly as a sheaf would do. For routing within delay tolerant networks to truly exploit this structure, a deeper structure than a graph is required. In this paper, we develop sheaves that can work over directed graphs such as temporal flow networks, we construct a sheaf representation for Dijkstra’s algorithm, and we outline a construction for routing sheaves capable of modeling multicast scenarios. Finally, there is a section of future work suggesting follow-on research.

Robert Short↗

Data-driven materials research enabled by natural language processing and information extraction

Given the emergence of data science and machine learning throughout all aspects of society, but particularly in the scientific domain, there is increased importance placed on obtaining data. Data in materials science are particularly heterogeneous, based on the significant range in materials classes that are explored and the variety of materials properties that are of interest. This leads to data that range many orders of magnitude, and these data may manifest as numerical text or image-based information, which requires quantitative interpretation. The ability to automatically consume and codify the scientific literature across domains - enabled by techniques adapted from the field of natural language processing - therefore has immense potential to unlock and generate the rich datasets necessary for data science and machine learning. This review focuses on the progress and practices of natural language processing and text mining of materials science literature and highlights opportunities for extracting additional information beyond text contained in figures and tables in articles. Here, we discuss and provide examples for several reasons for the pursuit of natural language processing for materials, including data compilation, hypothesis development, and understanding the trends within and across fields. Current and emerging natural language processing methods along with their applications to materials science are detailed. We, then, discuss natural language processing and data challenges within the materials science domain where future directions may prove valuable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

National Cancer Institute Think-Tank Meeting Report on Proteomic Cartography and Biomarkers at the Single-Cell Level: Interrogation of Premalignant Lesions

A Think-Tank Meeting was convened by the National Cancer Institute (NCI) to solicit experts’ opinion on the development and application of multi-omic single-cell analyses, and especially single-cell proteomics, to improve the development of a new generation of biomarkers for cancer risk, early detection, diagnosis, prognosis as well as to discuss the discovery of new targets for prevention and therapy. It is anticipated that such markers and targets will be based on cellular, subcellular, molecular and functional aberrations within the lesion and within individual cells. Additionally, single-cell proteomic data will be essential for the establishment of new tools that with searchable and scalable features that include spatial and temporal cartographies of premalignant and malignant lesions. Challenges and potential solutions that were discussed included: • The best way/s to analyze single-cells from fresh and preserved tissue • Detection and analysis of secreted molecules and from single cells, especially from a tissue slice • Detection of new, previously undocumented cell type/s in the premalignant and early stage cancer tissue microenvironment • Multi-omic integration of data to support and inform proteomic measurements • Subcellular organelles – identifying abnormal structure, function, distribution and location within individual premalignant and malignant cells • How to improve the dynamic range of single-cell proteomic measurements for discovery of differentially expressed proteins and their post translational modifications (PTM) • The depth of coverage measured concurrently using single-cell techniques • Quantitation - absolute or semiquantitative? • Single methodology or multiplexed combinations? • Application of analytical methods for identification of biologically significant subsets • Data visualization of N-dimensional datasets • How to construct intercellular signaling networks in individual cells within premalignant tumor microenvironments (TME) • Associations between intrinsic cellular processes and extrinsic stimuli • How to predict cellular responses to stress inducing stimuli • Identification of new markers for prediction of progression from precursor, benign and localized lesions to invasive cancer, based on spatial and temporal changes within individual cells • Identification of new targets for immunoprevention or immunotherapy – identification of neoantigens and surfactome of individual cells within a lesion

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗

Dynamic, Adaptive, Systems and Materials: Complex, Simple and Emergent Behaviors

This program has been funded by DoE/BES for twenty years. It has moved into and out of various subjects as it has developed, but it has retained its focus on complexity and complex systems. The project has evolved in the following way: Self-Assembly and Biomimetic Self-Assembly: All self-assembling systems depend upon a minimum of two types of interaction: a repulsion and an attraction. For the familiar molecular systems, attractive interactions are typically hydrogen bonds and electrostatic interactions. Repulsive interactions include steric effects, hydrophobic effects (in biological systems), and charge-charge repulsion. We have expanded this repertoire to include surface interactions, magnetic interactions, and others. I list these systems in the order in which we have explored them: i) A key emphasis in current work is in understanding how the movement of ions in a magnetic field (the Lorentz effect) interacts with catalytic systems. We have demonstrated that an acceleration in rate of reduction of CO 2 to CO can be accomplished by applying an external magnetic field. This acceleration is largely due to the application of the Lorentz effect on mass transport at the catalyst’s surface. ii) We have also extensively explored the influence of electrostatics, as exhibited in self-assembling systems, by tribocharging. iii) Another key system involves surface tension effects; examples include interactions between heavy particles floating at a liquid-air interface, and interacting by changes in surface area; interactions of bubbles and bubble rafts, behaviors of bubble trains in microfluidic networks, and behaviors of microorganisms in constraining environments. iv) This work has intentionally de-emphasized biological systems; but it does include some work on protein-ligand interactions and interactions among microorganisms. v) We have also explored applications of some of these effects, these explorations include bubble rafts as diffraction gratings, exploration of the structures that can be obtained by tribocharging and uses of these structures in exploring nucleation and melting of crystals. vi) Although not a major focus of this work, several other topics have emerged and offer opportunities for future work. These include the behavior of bubble trains and bubble rafts in microfluidic systems. A particularly interesting example is the formation of bubble trains that repeat in the alteration of large and small bubbles according to rules we do not presently understand, but are uniquely large-period oscillating systems. These systems offer a new route into understanding the instabilities of the type represented by oscillations. vii) We have also begun exploratory projects on magnetic levitation (especially to determine molecular density), and information storage (in molecules). Magnetic Levitation: Self-assembling and biomimetic systems require both attraction and repulsion. We have used electrostatics (tribocharging), interfacial free-energies (surface tension and related forces) and others. Potential uses include reconfigurable diffraction gratings and liquid lenses; exploration of mechanisms in tribocharging; tunneling in EGaIn junctions; and bubble trains (especially in micro-fluidic systems). Examples of systems representing these topics is included in the following papers: Complexity: Disks rotating at a water-air interface; Benard-Marangoni effects; Vortex-Crystals from spinning magnetic disks (Marangoni effects); EGaIn Electrode to study quantum tunneling; Self-Assembly of electrostatically-charged metallic spheres (electrets); Dynamically reconfigurable lens; Using computational designs of ligands for enzymes; Electrostatic self-assembly by tribocharging; Monodisperse bubble trains in microchannel systems; Inverted dripping faucet; Flames; Printing of micro-organisms to regenerate the “ink” of printing device; Using micro-organisms to move loads (“microoxen”); Motion of bacterial swarms near surfaces; Making monodisperse particles in microfluidic systems; Coding/decoding of information stored in droplet trains in microfluidic networks; Magnetic levitation; and Information storage. i) Tribocharging. The change in focus of this work on electrets from the fundamentals of charging to applications of these materials in studying self-assembly using electrostatic interactions. ii) Bubbles in Microchannels. The realization that systems of bubbles in microchannels represented a major opportunity to study complexity in a very tractable system, and the development of a semi-quantitative theory of this subject. iii) Flames. The growth of “flames” remains an exploratory subject for the research, although their currently relatively little active work involving it ongoing. iv) Systems with Microorganisms. The removal of work in biological systems from this project. Based on work supported in this program, we now have a significant project on the development of microfluidic tools for studying C. elegans (a nematode), but this work was not appropriate for a program focused on complexity, and we developed separate support for it. (It is, however, an example of successful seeding of a new area by BES.) The work on electrets has gone through a period in which a part of the program was the subject of a MURI; the focus of this work was to develop materials that did not charge electrostatically on friction or contact. The MURI is now over, and the work on dynamic self-assembly (supported by BES) is the major focus. “Flames” has also enjoyed synergistic support, in terms of a project supported by DARPA on flame suppression (in the absence of extinguishing agents, using acoustic and electrostatic interactions). This work was helpful in understanding some of the basics of flames, but is entirely distinct from the BES focus in complexity. A growing interest is in the Lorentz effect. The Lorentz effect is the force exerted on charged particles (electrons, ions, charged molecules) when they move through a perpendicular magnetic field. The Lorentz effect is almost ubiquitous in modern technology: examples of applications include electric motors, dynamos, cathode ray tubes, many batteries, and most systems that control electrical currents with magnetic forces. We have begun to explore the Lorentz effect in electrochemical systems and heterogeneous catalytic systems involving charged organic species and inorganic ions. This work is still at an early stage, but initial studies that Lorentz effects can be large when ions move through magnetic fields, or magnetic fields move in the presence of ions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projecting spatiotemporally explicit effects of climate change on stream temperature: A model comparison and implications for coldwater fishes

Conservation planners and resource managers seek information about how the availability and locations of cold-water habitats will change in the future and how these predictions vary among models. In this work, we used a physical process-based model to demonstrate the implications of climate change for streamflow and water temperature in two watersheds with distinctive flow regimes: the Snoqualmie watershed (WA) and Siletz watershed (OR), USA. Our model incorporated a downscaled ensemble of global climate model outputs and was calibrated with in situ and remotely sensed water temperatures. Furthermore, we compared predictions from our processed-based model to those from a publicly available and widely used statistical model. The process-based model projected greater changes in summer maximum water temperatures for the mixed-rain-snow Snoqualmie watershed than for the rain-dominated Siletz watershed as a result of the near-complete loss of winter snowpack and significant reduction in summer flow in the Snoqualmie watershed expected by the 2080s. Both models projected generally similar future spatial patterns of maximum water temperature in the two rivers, with cool reaches distributed farther upstream and fewer in number. However, the process-based model projected higher spatial heterogeneity in water temperature due to our spatially explicit simulation of streamflow and because we calibrated the model with spatially continuous remotely sensed water temperature data. We used stream temperature projections to assess the vulnerability of Pacific salmon and trout to changes in the spatial distribution of cold-water habitats during August by the 2080s. Results suggest that salmonids may have fewer summertime cold-water habitats in both watersheds. Projected stream warming may further limit particular species and life stages, especially in the Snoqualmie watershed. Our comparison of models highlights the importance of considering what might be gained by using a process-based model for evaluating and prioritizing management actions that mitigate climate impacts on cold-water habitats for stream fishes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗