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An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for deploying new batches of these satellites often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in transecting orbits that have the potential to cross other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are added and old satellites are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have on future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of realistic future scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical satellite constellations, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure, as well as station-keeping. The simulation can be customized to accommodate different methods of calculating the probability of collision, as well as the process for determining probability ellipsoids and screening volumes. This makes it possible to replicate, and compare, different processes used by different spacecraft operators and space situational awareness (SSA) providers. As the model is run forward in time, each conjunction event is recorded, allowing for the analysis of statistics and meta-data related to these events, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, such as whether are they active or passive objects, what size are the two objects, and who owns the objects (if known). This information makes it possible to characterize how changes to the status quo affect the number and type of conjunctions that occur, as well as the distributional effects on various types of satellite operators. To assess the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments, approximately 60,000 new large constellation satellites were considered, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 7800 known resident space objects (RSOs), over a simulation period of one year. The results indicate that the future space environment will introduce a non-linear increase in conjunction events as the number of RSOs also increase. This will require adjustments to spacecraft fuel budgets in order to conduct the avoidance maneuvers necessary to minimize collision risk, both for existing and new satellites. This increase is due in large part to the higher density of RSOs and the overlap between some constellation orbits. Current catalog objects were shown to require three times more ∆V for collision avoidance (CA) maneuvers in the simulated future environment, and some constellation spacecraft were estimated to devote the majority of their annual ∆V to CA. The impact of small satellites was found to be proportional for the current space environment, and actually decreased in terms of percentage for the future scenario, suggesting that small satellites do not pose an outsized collision risk. Lastly, transecting satellites were found to contribute thousands of additional conjunctions outside of their operational orbit, and may require up to an additional 5% in CA maneuver fuel allocation.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRS2011

Molecular Dynamics Simulation of the Antiamoebin Ion Channel: Linking Structure and Conductance

Molecular dynamics simulations were carried out in order to ascertain which of the potential multimeric forms of the transmembrane peptaibol channel, antiamoebin, is consistant with its measured conductance. Estimates of the conductance obtained through counting ions that cross the channel and by solving the Nernst-Planck equation yield consistent results, indicating that the motion of ions inside the channel can be satisfactorily described as diffusive.The calculated conductance of octameric channels is markedly higher than the conductance measured in single channel recordings, whereas the tetramer appears to be non-conducting. The conductance of the hexamer was estimated to be 115+/-34 pS and 74+/-20 pS, at 150 mV and 75 mV, respectively, in satisfactory agreement with the value of 90 pS measured at 75 mV. On this basis we propose that the antiamoebin channel consists of six monomers. Its pore is large enough to accommodate K(+) and Cl(-) with their first solvation shells intact. The free energy barrier encountered by K(+) is only 2.2 kcal/mol whereas Cl(-) encounters a substantially higher barrier of nearly 5 kcal/mol. This difference makes the channel selective for cations. Ion crossing events are shown to be uncorrelated and follow Poisson statistics. keywords: ion channels, peptaibols, channel conductance, molecular dynamics

Wilson, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Sloan Lens ACS Survey. I. A Large Spectroscopically Selected Sample of Massive Early-Type Lens Galaxies

The Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) Survey is an efficient Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Snapshot imaging survey for new galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses. The targeted lens candidates are selected spectroscopically from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) database of galaxy spectra for having multiple nebular emission lines at a redshift significantly higher than that of the SDSS target galaxy. The SLACS survey is optimized to detect bright early-type lens galaxies with faint lensed sources in order to increase the sample of known gravitational lenses suitable for detailed lensing, photometric, and dynamical modeling. In this paper, the first in a series on the current results of our HST Cycle 13 imaging survey, we present a catalog of 19 newly discovered gravitational lenses, along with nine other observed candidate systems that are either possible lenses, nonlenses, or nondetections. The survey efficiency is thus >=68%. We also present Gemini 8 m and Magellan 6.5 m integral-field spectroscopic data for nine of the SLACS targets, which further support the lensing interpretation. A new method for the effective subtraction of foreground galaxy images to reveal faint background features is presented. We show that the SLACS lens galaxies have colors and ellipticities typical of the spectroscopic parent sample from which they are drawn (SDSS luminous red galaxies and quiescent MAIN sample galaxies), but are somewhat brighter and more centrally concentrated. Several explanations for the latter bias are suggested. The SLACS survey provides the first statistically significant and homogeneously selected sample of bright early-type lens galaxies, furnishing a powerful probe of the structure of early-type galaxies within the half-light radius. The high confirmation rate of lenses in the SLACS survey suggests consideration of spectroscopic lens discovery as an explicit science goal of future spectroscopic galaxy surveys.

galaxies↗

NASA NTRS2009

Finding the First Galaxies

Astronomers study distant galaxies by taking long exposures in deep survey fields. They choose fields that are empty of known sources, so that they are statistically representative of the Universe as a whole. Astronomers can compare the distribution of the detected galaxies in brightness, color, morphology and redshift to theoretical models, in order to puzzle out the processes of galaxy evolution. In 2004, the Hubble Space Telescope was pointed at a small, deep-survey field in the southern constellation Fornax for more than 500 hours of exposure time. The resulting Hubble Ultra-Deep Field could see the faintest and most distant galaxies that the telescope is capable of viewing. These galaxies emitted their light less than 1 billion years after the Big Bang. From the Ultra Deep Field and other galaxy surveys, astronomers have built up a history of star formation in the universe. the peak occurred about7 billion years ago, about half of the age of the current universe, then the number of stars that were forming was about 15 time the rate today. Going backward in time to when the very first starts and galaxies formed, the average star-formation rate should drop to zero. but when looking at the most distant galaxies in the Ultra Deep field, the star formation rate is still higher than it is today. The faintest galaxies seen by Hubble are not the first galaxies that formed in the early universe. To detect these galaxies NASA is planning the James Webb Space Telescope for launch in 2013. Webb will have a 6.5-meter diameter primary mirror, much bigger than Hubble's 2.4-meter primary, and will be optimized for infrared observations to see the highly redshifted galaxies.

Gardner, Jonathan P.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Measurement of Satellite Impact Test Fragments for Modeling Orbital Debris

There are over 13,000 pieces of catalogued objects 10cm and larger in orbit around Earth [ODQN, January 2009, p12]. More than 6000 of these objects are fragments from explosions and collisions. As the earth-orbiting object count increases, debris-generating collisions in the future become a statistical inevitability. To aid in understanding this collision risk, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has developed computer models that calculate quantity and orbits of debris both currently in orbit and in future epochs. In order to create a reasonable computer model of the orbital debris environment, it is important to understand the mechanics of creation of debris as a result of a collision. The measurement of the physical characteristics of debris resulting from ground-based, hypervelocity impact testing aids in understanding the sizes and shapes of debris produced from potential impacts in orbit. To advance the accuracy of fragment shape/size determination, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office recently implemented a computerized measurement system. The goal of this system is to improve knowledge and understanding of the relation between commonly used dimensions and overall shape. The technique developed involves scanning a single fragment with a hand-held laser device, measuring its size properties using a sophisticated software tool, and creating a three-dimensional computer model to demonstrate how the object might appear in orbit. This information is used to aid optical techniques in shape determination. This more automated and repeatable method provides higher accuracy in the size and shape determination of debris.

Hill, Nicole M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Microstructural Influence on Deformation and Fatigue Life of Composites Using the Generalized Method of Cells

A fully coupled deformation and damage approach to modeling the response of composite materials and composite laminates is presented. It is based on the semi-‐analytical generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics model as well as its higher fidelity counterpart, HFGMC, both of which provide closed-form constitutive equations for composite materials as well as the micro scale stress and strain fields in the composite phases. The provided constitutive equations allow GMC and HFGMC to function within a higher scale structural analysis (e.g., finite element analysis or lamination theory) to represent a composite material point, while the availability of the micro fields allow the incorporation of lower scale sub‐models to represent local phenomena in the fiber and matrix. Further, GMC's formulation performs averaging when applying certain governing equations such that some degree of microscale field accuracy is surrendered in favor of extreme computational efficiency, rendering the method quite attractive as the centerpiece in a integrated computational material engineering (ICME) structural analysis; whereas HFGMC retains this microscale field accuracy, but at the price of significantly slower computational speed. Herein, the sensitivity of deformation and the fatigue life of graphite/epoxy PMC composites, with both ordered and disordered microstructures, has been investigated using this coupled deformation and damage micromechanics based approach. The local effects of fiber breakage and fatigue damage are included as sub‐models that operate on the microscale for the individual composite phases. For analysis of laminates, classical lamination theory is employed as the global or structural scale model, while GMC/HFGMC is embedded to operate on the microscale to simulate the behavior of the composite material within each laminate layer. A key outcome of this study is the statistical influence of microstructure and micromechanics idealization (GMC or HFGMC) on the overall accuracy of unidirectional and laminated composite deformation and fatigue response.

Microscale Models↗

NASA NTRS2014

Application of Suomi-NPP Green Vegetation Fraction and NUCAPS for Improving Regional Numerical Weather Prediction

The NASA SPoRT Center is working to incorporate Suomi‐NPP products into its research and transition activities to improve regional numerical weather prediction (NWP). Specifically, SPoRT seeks to utilize two data products from NOAA/NESDIS: (1) daily global VIIRS green vegetation fraction (GVF), and (2) NOAA Unique CrIS and ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture retrieved profiles. The goal of (1) is to improve the representation of vegetation in the Noah land surface model (LSM) over existing climatological GVF datasets in order to improve the land‐atmosphere energy exchanges in NWP models and produce better temperature, moisture, and precipitation forecasts. The goal of (2) is to assimilate NUCAPS retrieved profiles into the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system to assess the impact on a summer pre‐frontal convection case. Most regional NWP applications make use of a monthly GVF climatology for use in the Noah LSM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GVF partitions incoming energy into direct surface heating/evaporation over bare soil versus evapotranspiration processes over vegetated surfaces. Misrepresentations of the fractional coverage of vegetation during anomalous weather/climate regimes (e.g., early/late bloom or freeze; drought) can lead to poor NWP model results when land‐atmosphere feedback is important. SPoRT has been producing a daily MODIS GVF product based on the University of Wisconsin Direct Broadcast swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). While positive impacts have been demonstrated in the WRF model for some cases, the reflectances composing these NDVI do not correct for atmospheric aerosols nor satellite view angle, resulting in temporal noisiness at certain locations (especially heavy vegetation). The method behind the NESDIS VIIRS GVF is expected to alleviate the issues seen in the MODIS GVF real‐time product, thereby offering a higher‐quality dataset for modeling applications. SPoRT is evaluating the VIIRS GVF data against the MODIS real‐time and climatology GVF in both WRF and the NASA Land Information System. SPoRT has a history of assimilating hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles

Numerical Weather Prediction↗

NASA NTRS1992

Tests of a simple data merging algorithm for the GONG project

The GONG (Global Oscillation Network Group) project proposes to reduce the impact of diurnal variations on helioseismic measurements by making long-term observations of solar images from six sites placed around the globe. The sun will be observed nearly constantly for three years, resulting in the acquisition of l+ terabyte of image data. To use the solar network to maximum advantage, the images from the sites must be combined into a single time series to determine mode frequencies, amplitudes, and line widths. Initial versions of combined, i.e., merged, time series were made using a simple weighted average of data from different sites taken simultaneously. In order to accurately assess the impact of the data merge on the helioseismic measurements, a set of artificial solar disk images was made using a standard solar model and containing a well known set of oscillation modes and frequencies. This undegraded data set and data products computed from it were used to judge the relative merits of various data merging schemes. The artificial solar disk images were subjected to various instrumental and atmospheric degradations, dependent on site and time, in order to create a set of images simulating those likely to be taken at the site. The degraded artificial solar disk images for the six observing sites were combined in various ways to form merged time series of images and mode coefficients. Various forms of a weighted average were used, including an equally-weighted average, an average with weights dependent upon air mass and averages with weights dependent on various quality assurance parameters. Both the undegraded solar disk image time series and several time series made up of various combinations of the degraded solar disk images from the six sites were subjected to standard helioseismic measurement processing. This processing consisted of coordinate remapping, detrending, spherical harmonic transformation, computation of power series for the oscillation mode coefficients, and mode frequency identification. Visual and statistical evaluation of the merged data sets themselves and differences between the merged and undegraded data set shows good agreement between the two data sets. Some slight differences in image scale and registration appear between the undegraded data set and the various merged data sets. In the set of power series made from the mode coefficients of the merged data sets, some power leakage is observed into the background and into slightly lower l-value modes, especially at higher l-value mode frequencies. The results of the comparison of time series and mode oscillation frequencies of the undegraded data with those of the data merged using weighted averages indicate that, at least for p-mode solar oscillations, a weighted average of either the detrended remapped images or the mode coefficients gives good determination of the mode frequencies and adequate-to-good determination of the amplitudes and widths of the mode frequency lines. This conclusion is most advantageous to the analysis of the massive amounts of data to be received by the GONG network.

Williams, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Free-Energy Calculations. A Mathematical Perspective

Ion channels are pore-forming assemblies of transmembrane proteins that mediate and regulate ion transport through cell walls. They are ubiquitous to all life forms. In humans and other higher organisms they play the central role in conducting nerve impulses. They are also essential to cardiac processes, muscle contraction and epithelial transport. Ion channels from lower organisms can act as toxins or antimicrobial agents, and in a number of cases are involved in infectious diseases. Because of their important and diverse biological functions they are frequent targets of drug action. Also, simple natural or synthetic channels find numerous applications in biotechnology. For these reasons, studies of ion channels are at the forefront of biophysics, structural biology and cellular biology. In the last decade, the increased availability of X-ray structures has greatly advanced our understanding of ion channels. However, their mechanism of action remains elusive. This is because, in order to assist controlled ion transport, ion channels are dynamic by nature, but X-ray crystallography captures the channel in a single, sometimes non-native state. To explain how ion channels work, X-ray structures have to be supplemented with dynamic information. In principle, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can aid in providing this information, as this is precisely what MD has been designed to do. However, MD simulations suffer from their own problems, such as inability to access sufficiently long time scales or limited accuracy of force fields. To assess the reliability of MD simulations it is only natural to turn to the main function of channels - conducting ions - and compare calculated ionic conductance with electrophysiological data, mainly single channel recordings, obtained under similar conditions. If this comparison is satisfactory it would greatly increase our confidence that both the structures and our computational methodologies are sufficiently accurate. Channel conductance, defined as the ratio of ionic current through the channel to applied voltage, can be calculated in MD simulations by way of applying an external electric field to the system and counting the number of ions that traverse the channel per unit time. If the current is small, a voltage significantly higher than the experimental one needs to be applied to collect sufficient statistics of ion crossing events. Then, the calculated conductance has to be extrapolated to the experimental voltage using procedures of unknown accuracy. Instead, we propose an alternative approach that applies if ion transport through channels can be described with sufficient accuracy by the one-dimensional diffusion equation in the potential given by the free energy profile and applied voltage. Then, it is possible to test the assumptions of the equation, recover the full voltage/current dependence, determine the reliability of the calculated conductance and reconstruct the underlying (equilibrium) free energy profile, all from MD simulations at a single voltage. We will present the underlying theory, model calculations that test this theory and simulations on ion conductance through a channel that has been extensively studied experimentally. To our knowledge this is the first case in which the complete, experimentally measured dependence of the current on applied voltage has been reconstructed from MD simulations.

free energy↗

NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Correction of Satellite Ocean-Color Imagery During the PACE Era

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission will carry into space the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), a spectrometer measuring at 5 nm spectral resolution in the ultraviolet (UV) to near infrared (NIR) with additional spectral bands in the shortwave infrared (SWIR), and two multi-angle polarimeters that will overlap the OCI spectral range and spatial coverage, i. e., the Spectrometer for Planetary Exploration (SPEXone) and the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (HARP2). These instruments, especially when used in synergy, have great potential for improving estimates of water reflectance in the post Earth Observing System (EOS) era. Extending the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) observations to the UV, where aerosol absorption is effective, adding spectral bands in the SWIR, where even the most turbid waters are black and sensitivity to the aerosol coarse mode is higher than at shorter wavelengths, and measuring in the oxygen A-band to estimate aerosol altitude will enable greater accuracy in atmospheric correction for ocean color science. The multi-angular and polarized measurements, sensitive to aerosol properties (e.g., size distribution, index of refraction), can further help to identify or constrain the aerosol model, or to retrieve directly water reflectance. Algorithms that exploit the new capabilities are presented, and their ability to improve accuracy is discussed. They embrace a modern, adapted heritage two-step algorithm and alternative schemes (deterministic, statistical) that aim at inverting the TOA signal in a single step. These schemes, by the nature of their construction, their robustness, their generalization properties, and their ability to associate uncertainties, are expected to become the new standard in the future. A strategy for atmospheric correction is presented that ensures continuity and consistency with past and present ocean-color missions while enabling full exploitation of the new dimensions and possibilities. Despite the major improvements anticipated with the PACE instruments, gaps/issues remain to be filled/tackled. They include dealing properly with whitecaps, taking into account Earth-curvature effects, correcting for adjacency effects, accounting for the coupling between scattering and absorption, modeling accurately water reflectance, and acquiring a sufficiently representative dataset of water reflectance in the UV to SWIR. Dedicated efforts, experimental and theoretical, are in order to gather the necessary information and rectify inadequacies. Ideas and solutions are put forward to address the unresolved issues. Thanks to its design and characteristics, the PACE mission will mark the beginning of a new era of unprecedented accuracy in ocean-color radiometry from space.

Robert J Frouin↗

NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Correction of Satellite Ocean-Color Imagery During the PACE Era

ocean color↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Overview of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm: Past, Present and Future Work

Rapid increases in total lightning prior to the onset of severe and hazardous weather have been observed for several decades. These rapid increases are known as lightning jumps and can precede the occurrence of severe weather by tens of minutes. Over the past decade, a significant effort has been made to quantify lightning jump behavior in relation to its utility as a predictor of severe and hazardous weather. Based on a study of 34 thunderstorms that occurred in the Tennessee Valley, early work conducted in our group at Huntsville determined that it was indeed possible to create a reasonable operational lightning jump algorithm (LJA) based on a statistical framework relying on the variance behavior of the lightning trending signal. We the expanded this framework and tested several variance-related LJA configurations on a much larger sample of 87 severe and non severe thunderstorms. This study determined that a configuration named the "2(sigma)" algorithm had the most promise in development of the operational LJA with a probability of detection (POD) of 87%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 33%, a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.75. The 2(sigma) algorithm was then tested on an even larger sample of 711 thunderstorms of all types from four regions of the country where total lightning measurement capability existed. The result was very encouraging.Despite the larger number of storms and the inclusion of different regions of the country, the POD remained high (79%), the FAR was low (36%) and HSS was solid (0.71). Average lead time from jump to severe weather occurrence was 20.65 minutes, with a standard deviation of +/- 15 minutes. Also, trends in total lightning were compared to cloud to ground (CG) lightning trends, and it was determined that total lightning trends had a higher POD (79% vs 66%), lower FAR (36% vs 54 %) and a better HSS (0.71 vs 0.55). From the 711-storm case study it was determined that a majority of missed events were due to severe weather producing thunderstorms in low flashing environments. The latest efforts have been geared toward examining these low flashing storms in order to adjust the algorithm for such storms, thus enhancing the capability of the LJA. Future work will test the algorithm in real time using current satellite and radar based cell tracking methods, as well as, comparing total lightning jump occurrence to both satellite based and ground base observations of thunderstorms to create correlations between lightning jumps and the observed structures within thunderstorms. Finally this algorithm will need to be tested using Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data to transition the algorithm from VHF ground based lightning measurements to lower frequency space-based lightning measurements.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Feature extraction and classification algorithms for high dimensional data

Feature extraction and classification algorithms for high dimensional data are investigated. Developments with regard to sensors for Earth observation are moving in the direction of providing much higher dimensional multispectral imagery than is now possible. In analyzing such high dimensional data, processing time becomes an important factor. With large increases in dimensionality and the number of classes, processing time will increase significantly. To address this problem, a multistage classification scheme is proposed which reduces the processing time substantially by eliminating unlikely classes from further consideration at each stage. Several truncation criteria are developed and the relationship between thresholds and the error caused by the truncation is investigated. Next an approach to feature extraction for classification is proposed based directly on the decision boundaries. It is shown that all the features needed for classification can be extracted from decision boundaries. A characteristic of the proposed method arises by noting that only a portion of the decision boundary is effective in discriminating between classes, and the concept of the effective decision boundary is introduced. The proposed feature extraction algorithm has several desirable properties: it predicts the minimum number of features necessary to achieve the same classification accuracy as in the original space for a given pattern recognition problem; and it finds the necessary feature vectors. The proposed algorithm does not deteriorate under the circumstances of equal means or equal covariances as some previous algorithms do. In addition, the decision boundary feature extraction algorithm can be used both for parametric and non-parametric classifiers. Finally, some problems encountered in analyzing high dimensional data are studied and possible solutions are proposed. First, the increased importance of the second order statistics in analyzing high dimensional data is recognized. By investigating the characteristics of high dimensional data, the reason why the second order statistics must be taken into account in high dimensional data is suggested. Recognizing the importance of the second order statistics, there is a need to represent the second order statistics. A method to visualize statistics using a color code is proposed. By representing statistics using color coding, one can easily extract and compare the first and the second statistics.

Lee, Chulhee↗

NASA NTRS1992

A first-order global model of Late Cenozoic climatic change: Orbital forcing as a pacemaker of the ice ages

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.

Saltzman, Barry↗

NASA NTRS2007

Electrification in Hurricanes over the Tropical Americas: Implication for Stratospheric Water Vapor

This study explores the relation between lightning activity and water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) over hurricane systems in the Tropical Americas. The hypothesis herein is that hurricanes that exhibit enhanced lightning activity are associated with stronger updrafts that can transport more moisture directly into the TTL (and subsequently into the tropical stratosphere) or even directly into the tropical stratosphere over this region. The TTL over the Tropical Americas, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is of particular interest, because summertime cold point tropopause is the lowest in height and thus the warmest in temperature over the tropics. The latter condition implies higher saturation values and thus potential for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. Climate forecast is very sensitive to stratospheric water vapor abundance, because of the key role that water vapor plays in regulating the chemical and radiative properties of the stratosphere. Given the potential for increases in hurricane intensity and frequency under predicted warmer conditions, it becomes essential to understand the effect of hurricanes on stratospheric water vapor. In this study, we use a combination of ground and space-borne observations as well as trajectory calculations. The observations include: cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), geostationary infrared observations from the National Climatic Data Center Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data set, cloud properties from Aqua-MODIS, and water vapor from Aura-MLS. We analyze hurricanes from the 2005 season when Aura-MLS data are available, namely: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Our analysis consists of examining CG lightning, cloud-top properties, and TTL water vapor (i.e., 100 and 147 mb) over the hurricane while it remains over water in the Tropical Americas region. We investigate daily as well as diurnal statistical properties. The hurricanes analyzed in this study showed that lightning activity is negatively correlated with minimum infrared brightness temperature and positively correlated with 100-mb water vapor. An examination of the maxima in water vapor observed over the hurricane not only shows larger magnitudes, but also larger differences between water vapor averages and water vapor maxima over the hurricane as lightning activity increases. Trajectory calculations are performed using the Flextra model in order to investigate the fate of the moister air masses found in the TTL.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Eight-Channel Continuous Timer

A custom laboratory electronic timer circuit measures the durations of successive cycles of nominally highly stable input clock signals in as many as eight channels, for the purpose of statistically quantifying the small instabilities of these signals. The measurement data generated by this timer are sent to a personal computer running software that integrates the measurements to form a phase residual for each channel and uses the phase residuals to compute Allan variances for each channel. (The Allan variance is a standard statistical measure of instability of a clock signal.) Like other laboratory clock-cycle-measuring circuits, this timer utilizes an externally generated reference clock signal having a known frequency (100 MHz) much higher than the frequencies of the input clock signals (between 100 and 120 Hz). It counts the number of reference-clock cycles that occur between successive rising edges of each input clock signal of interest, thereby affording a measurement of the input clock-signal period to within the duration (10 ns) of one reference clock cycle. Unlike typical prior laboratory clock-cycle-measuring circuits, this timer does not skip some cycles of the input clock signals. The non-cycle-skipping feature is an important advantage because in applications that involve integration of measurements over long times for characterizing nominally highly stable clock signals, skipping cycles can degrade accuracy. The timer includes a field-programmable gate array that functions as a 20-bit counter running at the reference clock rate of 100 MHz. The timer also includes eight 20-bit latching circuits - one for each channel - at the output terminals of the counter. Each transition of an input signal from low to high causes the corresponding latching circuit to latch the count at that instant. Each such transition also sets a status flip-flop circuit to indicate the presence of the latched count. A microcontroller reads the values of all eight status flipflops and then reads the latched count for each channel for which the flip-flop indicates the presence of a count. Reading the count for each channel automatically causes the flipflop of that channel to be reset. The microcontroller places the counts in time order, identifies the channel number for each count, and transmits these data to the personal computer.

Cole, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2006

Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Phenomenological Verification Techniques

Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, 45th Weather Squadron, and National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL use mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output in creating their operational forecasts. These models aid in forecasting weather phenomena that could compromise the safety of launch, landing, and daily ground operations and must produce reasonable weather forecasts in order for their output to be useful in operations. Considering the importance of model forecasts to operations, their accuracy in forecasting critical weather phenomena must be verified to determine their usefulness. The currently-used traditional verification techniques involve an objective point-by-point comparison of model output and observations valid at the same time and location. The resulting statistics can unfairly penalize high-resolution models that make realistic forecasts of a certain phenomena, but are offset from the observations in small time and/or space increments. Manual subjective verification can provide a more valid representation of model performance, but is time-consuming and prone to personal biases. An objective technique that verifies specific meteorological phenomena, much in the way a human would in a subjective evaluation, would likely produce a more realistic assessment of model performance. Such techniques are being developed in the research community. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a literature search to identify phenomenological verification techniques being developed, determine if any are ready to use operationally, and outline the steps needed to implement any operationally-ready techniques into the Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The AMU conducted a search of all literature on the topic of phenomenological-based mesoscale model verification techniques and found 10 different techniques in various stages of development. Six of the techniques were developed to verify precipitation forecasts, one to verify sea breeze forecasts, and three were capable of verifying several phenomena. The AMU also determined the feasibility of transitioning each technique into operations and rated the operational capability of each technique on a subjective 1-10 scale: (1) 1 indicates that the technique is only in the initial stages of development, (2) 2-5 indicates that the technique is still undergoing modifications and is not ready for operations, (3) 6-8 indicates a higher probability of integrating the technique into AWIPS with code modifications, and (4) 9-10 indicates that the technique was created for AWIPS and is ready for implementation. Eight of the techniques were assigned a rating of 5 or below. The other two received ratings of 6 and 7, and none of the techniques a rating of 9-10. At the current time, there are no phenomenological model verification techniques ready for operational use. However, several of the techniques described in this report may become viable techniques in the future and should be monitored for updates in the literature. The desire to use a phenomenological verification technique is widespread in the modeling community, and it is likely that other techniques besides those described herein are being developed, but the work has not yet been published. Therefore, the AMIU recommends that the literature continue to be monitored for updates to the techniques described in this report and for new techniques being developed whose results have not yet been published. 111

Lambert, Winifred↗

NASA NTRS2012

W/V-Band RF Propagation Experiment Design

The utilization of frequency spectrum for space-to-ground communications applications has generally progressed from the lowest available bands capable of supporting transmission through the atmosphere to the higher bands, which have required research and technological advancement to implement. As communications needs increase and the available spectrum in the microwave frequency bands (3 30 GHz) becomes congested globally, future systems will move into the millimeter wave (mm-wave) range (30 300 GHz). While current systems are operating in the Ka-band (20 30 GHz), systems planned for the coming decades will initiate operations in the Q-Band (33 50 GHz), V-Band (50 75 GHz) and W Band (75 110 GHz) of the spectrum. These bands offer extremely broadband capabilities (contiguous allocations of 500 MHz to 1GHz or more) and an uncluttered spectrum for a wide range of applications. NASA, DoD and commercial missions that can benefit from moving into the mm-wave bands include data relay and near-Earth data communications, unmanned aircraft communications, NASA science missions, and commercial broadcast/internet services, all able to be implemented via very small terminals. NASA Glenn Research Center has a long history of performing the inherently governmental function of opening new frequency spectrum by characterizing atmospheric effects on electromagnetic propagation and collaborating with the satellite communication industry to develop specific communications technologies for use by NASA and the nation. Along these lines, there are critical issues related to W/V-band propagation that need to be thoroughly understood before design of any operational system can commence. These issues arise primarily due to the limitations imposed on W/V-band signal propagation by the Earth s atmosphere, and to the fundamental lack of understanding of these effects with regards to proper system design and fade mitigation. In this paper, The GRC RF propagation team recommends measurements that are required to assure that the risk associated with the use of mm-wave is minimized. We develop first order beacon and transponder system payload requirements and beacon terminal requirements. We will suggest and discuss a possible hardware implementation for the space segment, as well for the ground segment. A discussion on a propagation measurement campaign for taking relevant statistical data is also included.

Acosta, Roberto J.↗