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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Representation in Power System Models

Power system models generally fail to capture the range of characteristics geothermal resources provide and the value they potentially contribute to decarbonization and reliability of future electricity grids as firm, dispatchable, non-combustion power resources. This study reviews the results of power system modeling efforts to investigate geothermal deployment potential in the United States, including the U.S. DOE GeoVision analysis and ongoing modeling and analysis efforts to support planning and development of future grids with 100% renewable energy in California. Several themes are identified that could be implemented immediately to improve the accuracy of geothermal representation in power system models: consistency of model inputs, modeling of baseload and dispatchable geothermal resources, accurate valuation of grid services, improved representation of capacity factor, use of contemporary LCOE estimates, improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value, and use of accurate resource potential constraints. Many of the models reviewed produced significantly different amounts of geothermal resource selection - even when modeling the same region and time period. This highlights the variability of inputs and assumptions among models, so creating a consistent set of geothermal inputs is a first step toward more accurate representation of geothermal in models. Research opportunities are identified that could help improve geothermal data inputs in modeling efforts, including analyses of historical data, sensitivity to model inputs, and comparative value of geothermal generators as baseload or dispatchable resources. Outcomes of such research can inform the geothermal community about how best to guide geothermal development toward wider deployment in support of future electricity grids through improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value over time and the characteristics that contribute to that value.

capacity expansion models↗
NASA NTRS1991

Development of a calibrated software reliability model for flight and supporting ground software for avionic systems

The object of this project was to develop and calibrate quantitative models for predicting the quality of software. Reliable flight and supporting ground software is a highly important factor in the successful operation of the space shuttle program. The models used in the present study consisted of SMERFS (Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Software). There are ten models in SMERFS. For a first run, the results obtained in modeling the cumulative number of failures versus execution time showed fairly good results for our data. Plots of cumulative software failures versus calendar weeks were made and the model results were compared with the historical data on the same graph. If the model agrees with actual historical behavior for a set of data then there is confidence in future predictions for this data. Considering the quality of the data, the models have given some significant results, even at this early stage. With better care in data collection, data analysis, recording of the fixing of failures and CPU execution times, the models should prove extremely helpful in making predictions regarding the future pattern of failures, including an estimate of the number of errors remaining in the software and the additional testing time required for the software quality to reach acceptable levels. It appears that there is no one 'best' model for all cases. It is for this reason that the aim of this project was to test several models. One of the recommendations resulting from this study is that great care must be taken in the collection of data. When using a model, the data should satisfy the model assumptions.

Lawrence, Stella↗
NASA NTRS2003

The SPARC Intercomparison of Middle Atmosphere Climatologies

Our current confidence in 'observed' climatological winds and temperatures in the middle atmosphere (over altitudes approx. 10-80 km) is assessed by detailed intercomparisons of contemporary and historic data sets. These data sets include global meteorological analyses and assimilations, climatologies derived from research satellite measurements, and historical reference atmosphere circulation statistics. We also include comparisons with historical rocketsonde wind and temperature data, and with more recent lidar temperature measurements. The comparisons focus on a few basic circulation statistics, such as temperature, zonal wind, and eddy flux statistics. Special attention is focused on tropical winds and temperatures, where large differences exist among separate analyses. Assimilated data sets provide the most realistic tropical variability, but substantial differences exist among current schemes.

Randel, William↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Fidelity Learning for Distribution System Voltage Probabilistic Analysis with High Penetration of PVs

This paper proposes a multi-fidelity learning approach for distribution voltage probabilistic analysis with high penetration of PVs. Unlike the existing machine learning-based approaches that require a large number of high fidelity data to achieve satisfactory results, our approach strategically leverage massive low fidelity data from inaccurate model simulations and limited high fidelity historical data. The key idea is to use low-fidelity data to establish an initial model and then the high-fidelity data to calibrate and correct the constructed low-fidelity model. This allows us to fuse low- and high-fidelity data, yielding a high fidelity prediction model. Results obtained from a realistic feeder in US with 80% penetration of PVs show that the proposed approach can achieve a similar accuracy to the one with a large number of high fidelity data. This significantly highlights the advantages of the proposed method as compared to existing data-hungry machine learning methods. Different levels of fidelity data and their impacts are also investigated.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design of Digital Twin Sensing Strategies Via Predictive Modeling and Interpretable Machine Learning

This work develops a methodology for sensor placement and dynamic sensor scheduling decisions for digital twins. The digital twin data assimilation is posed as a classification problem, and predictive models are used to train optimal classification trees that represent the map from observed data to estimated digital twin states. In addition to providing a rapid digital twin updating capability, the resulting classification trees yield an interpretable mathematical representation that can be queried to inform sensor placement and sensor scheduling decisions. The proposed approach is demonstrated for a structural digital twin of a 12 ft wingspan unmanned aerial vehicle. Offline, training data are generated by simulating scenarios using predictive reduced-order models of the vehicle in a range of structural states. Furthermore, these training data can be further augmented using experimental or other historical data. In operation, the trained classifier is applied to observational data from the physical vehicle, enabling rapid adaptation of the digital twin in response to changes in structural health. Within this context, we study the performance of the optimal tree classifiers and demonstrate how they enable explainable structural assessments from sparse sensor measurements and also inform optimal sensor placement.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1993

IDGE - A test of dendritic growth theory using space flight

The isothermal Dendritic Growth Experiment (IDGE), to be performed on three of the United States Microgravity Payload (USMP) flights, starting with USMP-2, is designed to provide microgravity data on dendritic growth for a critical test of theory. Ground based test data using succinonitrile (SCN), from both a flight growth chamber and a laboratory growth chamber, are compared to theoretical calculations of dendritic tip velocities and radii. The comparison shows that the data from the flight chamber are consistent with the historical data and that dendritic growth in a microgravity environment should exhibit significant differences from the dendritic growth of SCN at g sub 0.

Glicksman, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Friction Stir Weld Restart+Reweld Repair Allowables

A friction stir weld (FSW) repair method has been developed and successfully implemented on Al 2195 plate material for the Space Shuttle External Fuel Tank (ET). The method includes restarting the friction stir weld in the termination hole of the original weld followed by two reweld passes. Room temperature and cryogenic temperature mechanical properties exceeded minimum FSW design strength and compared well with the development data. Simulated service test results also compared closely to historical data for initial FSW, confirming no change to the critical flaw size or inspection requirements for the repaired weld. Testing of VPPA fusion/FSW intersection weld specimens exhibited acceptable strength and exceeded the minimum design value. Porosity, when present at the intersection was on the root side toe of the fusion weld, the "worst case" being 0.7 inch long. While such porosity may be removed by sanding, this "worst case" porosity condition was tested "as is" and demonstrated that porosity did not negatively affect the strength of the intersection weld. Large, 15-inch "wide panels" FSW repair welds were tested to demonstrate strength and evaluate residual stresses using photo stress analysis. All results exceeded design minimums, and photo stress analysis showed no significant stress gradients due to the presence of the restart and multi-pass FSW repair weld.

Clifton, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2008

Overview of the Smart Network Element Architecture and Recent Innovations

In industrial environments, system operators rely on the availability and accuracy of sensors to monitor processes and detect failures of components and/or processes. The sensors must be networked in such a way that their data is reported to a central human interface, where operators are tasked with making real-time decisions based on the state of the sensors and the components that are being monitored. Incorporating health management functions at this central location aids the operator by automating the decision-making process to suggest, and sometimes perform, the action required by current operating conditions. Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) aims to incorporate data from many sources, including real-time and historical data and user input, and extract information and knowledge from that data to diagnose failures and predict future failures of the system. By distributing health management processing to lower levels of the architecture, there is less bandwidth required for ISHM, enhanced data fusion, make systems and processes more robust, and improved resolution for the detection and isolation of failures in a system, subsystem, component, or process. The Smart Network Element (SNE) has been developed at NASA Kennedy Space Center to perform intelligent functions at sensors and actuators' level in support of ISHM.

Perotti, Jose M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Lessons Learned in Building Long-Term Multi-Satellite Global Precipitation Records

Efforts to construct long-term global precipitation data sets from the decades-long record of satellite (and other) data historically have fallen into one of two categories. Climate Data Records (CDR), such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), prioritize homogeneity over fine-scale accuracy. On the other hand, High Resolution Precipitation Products (HRPP), such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), emphasize the use of data from all available satellites. For both types of products, experience has shown that it is critical to choose the appropriate reference standard to intercalibrate an ever-evolving constellation of satellite sensors. Towards this end, we have used passive microwave (PMW) in developing GPCP, and combined PMW-radar in TMPA.The launch of the TRMM follow-on Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2014 gave birth to several nearly-global HRPP's, including the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG). Our strategy in refining IMERG has been to first focus on the tropics and mid-latitudes, where we have relatively high confidence, and only more recently begin to expand into the lower-confidence high latitudes. Similarly, although GPCP has provided nearly-global estimates since its inception in the early 1990's, the advent of sensors such as CloudSat has facilitated new efforts to modernize its estimates at high latitudes.For each of these data sets, it is expected that the final merged estimate should tend to track along with its respective calibration standard. Time series depicting GPCP, TMPA, and IMERG will be presented, in order to demonstrate the extent to which this is so. Additionally, comparisons amongst the products will show areas of agreement and highlight areas where further improvements are needed.

Nelkin, Eric J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Online evolutionary neural architecture search for multivariate non-stationary time series forecasting

Time series forecasting (TSF) is one of the most important tasks in data science. TSF models are usually pre-trained with historical data and then applied on future unseen datapoints. However, real-world time series data is usually non-stationary and models trained offline usually face problems from data drift. Models trained and designed in an offline fashion can not quickly adapt to changes quickly or be deployed in real-time. To address these issues, this work presents the Online NeuroEvolution-based Neural Architecture Search (ONE-NAS) algorithm, which is a novel neural architecture search method capable of automatically designing and dynamically training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for online forecasting tasks. Without any pre-training, ONE-NAS utilizes populations of RNNs that are continuously updated with new network structures and weights in response to new multivariate input data. ONE-NAS is tested on real-world, large-scale multivariate wind turbine data as well as the univariate Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dataset. These results demonstrate that ONE-NAS outperforms traditional statistical time series forecasting methods, including online linear regression, fixed long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models trained online, as well as state-of-the-art, online ARIMA strategies. Additionally, results show that utilizing multiple populations of RNNs which are periodically repopulated provide significant performance improvements, allowing this online neural network architecture design and training to be successful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital Twin Empowered PV Power Prediction

The accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is significant to ensure the economic and safe operation of power systems. To this end, the paper proposes a new digital twin (DT) empowered PV power prediction framework that is capable of ensuring reliable data transmission and employing the DT to achieve high accuracy of power prediction. With this framework, considering potential data contamination in the collected PV data, a generative adversarial network is employed to restore the historical data set, which offers a prerequisite to ensure accurate mapping from the physical space to the digital space. Further, a new DT empowered PV power prediction method is proposed. Therein, we model a DT that encompasses a digital physical model for reflecting the physical operation mechanism and a neural network model (i.e., a parallel network of convolution and bidirectional long-short-term memory model) for capturing the hidden spatial-temporal features. The proposed method enables the use of the DT to take advantages of the digital physical model and the neural network model, resulting in enhanced prediction accuracy. Finally, a real data set is conducted to access the effectiveness of the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1985

Development and implementation of the NASA Metrology and Information System

The NASA Metrology Information System (NMIS) was developed as a subsystem of the NASA Equipment Management System (NEMS) to provide a standardized technique in managing the calibration programs of its field Centers and facilities. The NMIS is a computerized data-base system providing: automatic instrument calibration recall and control, historical data including calibration and repair labor and parts costs, incoming instrument performance condition; instrument data including description, manufacturer, model and serial number, and instrument user name location. NMIS automatically provides 28 standardized calibration system performance reports on a user selected schedule. An ad hoc report generation capability is also provided. A standardized form, the Metrology Control Document, was developed for use as a calibration work order and data input document. System implementation plan is presented.

German, Earl S.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Implementation of a data management software system for SSME test history data

The implementation of a software system for managing Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) test/flight historical data is presented. The software system uses the database management system RIM7 for primary data storage and routine data management, but includes several FORTRAN programs, described here, which provide customized access to the RIM7 database. The consolidation, modification, and transfer of data from the database THIST, to the RIM7 database THISRM is discussed. The RIM7 utility modules for generating some standard reports from THISRM and performing some routine updating and maintenance are briefly described. The FORTRAN accessing programs described include programs for initial loading of large data sets into the database, capturing data from files for database inclusion, and producing specialized statistical reports which cannot be provided by the RIM7 report generator utility. An expert system tutorial, constructed using the expert system shell product INSIGHT2, is described. Finally, a potential expert system, which would analyze data in the database, is outlined. This system could use INSIGHT2 as well and would take advantage of RIM7's compatibility with the microcomputer database system RBase 5000.

Abernethy, Kenneth↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wind Technology Data and Trends: Land-Based Focus (Update 2020) [Slides]

The purpose of this presentation is to summarize publicly available data on key trends in U.S. wind power sector. In scope, the presentation focuses on land-based wind turbines over 100 kW in size, separates DOE-funded data collection efforts on distributed and offshore wind, and focuses on historical data, with some emphasis on the previous year.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1988

An expert system for satellite and instrument data anomaly and fault isolation

A prototype Generic Payload Operations Control System (GPOCC) is being developed at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory to provide a low-cost command and control processing center for science instruments and small payloads. The GPOCC supports the difficult transition from integration and test to flight operations. The prototype will incorporate four expert systems to perform telemetry, command, and mission planning functions as well as telecommunications scheduling. The first of these expert systems to be developed will perform telemetry data analysis and fault isolation, as well as propose corrective action. This Data Analysis Module (DAM) will monitor telemetry data and perform continual data monitoring and trend analysis based on a knowledge base and historic data archived on an optical disk storage device. The system maintains a continuous knowledge database of past system performance characteristics. The goal of the Data Analysis Module is to achieve consistent, dependable and validatable performance, to demonstrate thorough, reliable and fast reasoning, and to reduce the concentration demanded of flight analysis personnel.

Busse, Carl↗
NASA NTRS2004

Advanced Signal Conditioners for Data-Acquisition Systems

Signal conditioners embodying advanced concepts in analog and digital electronic circuitry and software have been developed for use in data-acquisition systems that are required to be compact and lightweight, to utilize electric energy efficiently, and to operate with high reliability, high accuracy, and high power efficiency, without intervention by human technicians. These signal conditioners were originally intended for use aboard spacecraft. There are also numerous potential terrestrial uses - especially in the fields of aeronautics and medicine, wherein it is necessary to monitor critical functions. Going beyond the usual analog and digital signal-processing functions of prior signal conditioners, the new signal conditioner performs the following additional functions: It continuously diagnoses its own electronic circuitry, so that it can detect failures and repair itself (as described below) within seconds. It continuously calibrates itself on the basis of a highly accurate and stable voltage reference, so that it can continue to generate accurate measurement data, even under extreme environmental conditions. It repairs itself in the sense that it contains a micro-controller that reroutes signals among redundant components as needed to maintain the ability to perform accurate and stable measurements. It detects deterioration of components, predicts future failures, and/or detects imminent failures by means of a real-time analysis in which, among other things, data on its present state are continuously compared with locally stored historical data. It minimizes unnecessary consumption of electric energy. The design architecture divides the signal conditioner into three main sections: an analog signal section, a digital module, and a power-management section. The design of the analog signal section does not follow the traditional approach of ensuring reliability through total redundancy of hardware: Instead, following an approach called spare parts tool box, the reliability of each component is assessed in terms of such considerations as risks of damage, mean times between failures, and the effects of certain failures on the performance of the signal conditioner as a whole system. Then, fewer or more spares are assigned for each affected component, pursuant to the results of this analysis, in order to obtain the required degree of reliability of the signal conditioner as a whole system. The digital module comprises one or more processors and field-programmable gate arrays, the number of each depending on the results of the aforementioned analysis. The digital module provides redundant control, monitoring, and processing of several analog signals. It is designed to minimize unnecessary consumption of electric energy, including, when possible, going into a low-power "sleep" mode that is implemented in firmware. The digital module communicates with external equipment via a personal-computer serial port. The digital module monitors the "health" of the rest of the signal conditioner by processing defined measurements and/or trends. It automatically makes adjustments to respond to channel failures, compensate for effects of temperature, and maintain calibration.

Lucena, Angel↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be exacerbated when coupled, component systems with different physical characteristics and different spatial and temporal scales, and component observations in different media with different spatial and temporal frequencies and different latencies. Quantification of uncertainty in reanalyses is also a critical challenge and is important for expanding their utility as a tool for climate change assessment. This talk provides a brief overview of the progress of reanalysis development during recent decades, and describes remaining challenges in the progression toward coupled Earth system reanalyses.

IES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observational process data analytics using causal inference

Voluminous process data are available with the paradigm shift toward smart manufacturing. However, most historical data are observational, containing noncausal correlations due to confounders and mediators. Estimating causal effects from observational data remains a bottleneck in leveraging them for active applications such as optimization and control. Further, this work aims to introduce a causal modeling framework for analyzing observational process data and extracting quantitative causal information. We demonstrate a real-world application in steel manufacturing where causal inference is used to analyze observational production data and improve the steelmaking process. Additionally, we propose a novel formulation for identifying critical process parameters from observational data, where causal inference is combined with variance-based methods to estimate corresponding risks of interventions to the manufacturing system. The proposed methods are compared with statistical ones to illustrate that causally interpreting statistical correlation leads to problematic results, while the provided workflow generates satisfactory strategies for process improvement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗