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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Engineering Approach to Analyze Damage Initiation Modes in Tapered Composite Structures

In this work an engineering approach is demonstrated for analyzing damage initiation modes in tapered composite structures. The analysis methodology includes simulation of the non-linear static response of tapered composite structures under static tension loads to predict the location of interfacial delamination initiation. Furthermore, the developed methodology provides a strength-based criterion to assess whether damage initiation will occur in the inter-laminar delamination or intra-laminar matrix cracking mode. Based on the results of the analysis, a tapered composite structure is fabricated and tested under displacement-controlled quasi-static tension loading. The damage initiation location captured experimentally is compared with the analysis towards achieving preliminary qualitative validation. The linear stiffness of the tapered composite structure is predicted within 15% of the experimental average thereby achieving preliminary quantitative validation.

Prabhakar M Rao↗
NASA NTRS2020

Using a Simple Water Balance Framework to Quantify the Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Subseasonal Evapotranspiration and Air Temperature Forecasts

Past studies have shown that accurate soil moisture initialization can contribute significant skill to near-surface air temperature (T2M) forecasts at subseasonal leads. The mechanisms by which soil moisture contributes such skill are examined here with a simple water balance-based model that captures the essence of soil moisture behavior in a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The simple model successfully transforms initial soil moisture contents into average “forecasted” ET values at 16-30 day lead that agree well, during summer, with the values forecasted by the full NASA GEOS S2S system, indicating that soil moisture initialization dominates over forecasted meteorology in determining ET fluxes at subseasonal leads. When the simple model’s ET anomalies are interpreted in terms of T2M anomalies, a similar conclusion is reached for T2M: soil moisture initialization explains much (about 50% in the eastern half of the continental US) of the T2M anomalies produced by the full GEOS S2S system at 16-30 day lead, and the T2M forecasts produced by the simple model capture about half of the skill attained by the full system. The simple model’s framework is particularly conducive to an analysis of uncertainty in forecasts. Drier soils are generally found to induce larger uncertainty in ET (and thus T2M) forecasts, a result linked to the functional form relating ET to soil moisture in the simple model and verified by an analysis of the ensemble spreads within the forecasts produced by the full GEOS S2S system

Randal D Koster↗
NASA NTRS2021

Asymmetry in Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Forecast Error with Respect to Soil Moisture Initialization

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

Air Temperature↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

T2M Forecasts at Subseasonal Leads: Do Different Soil Moisture Initial States Have Different Impacts?

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

2-meter Temperature↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions due to COVID-19: Initial Results from CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. Twelve models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID- 19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Chris D. Jones↗
NASA NTRS2020

Analyzing the Impact of CryoSat-2 Ice Thickness Initialization on Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Prediction

Twin 5-month seasonal forecast experiments are performed to predict the September 2018 minimum ice extent using the fully coupled Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). In the control run, ensemble forecasts are initialized from the operational US Navy Global Ocean Forecasting System (GOFS) 3.1 for the ocean and sea ice but do not assimilate ice thickness data. Another set of forecasts are initialized from the same GOFS 3.1 fields but with sea ice thickness derived from CryoSat-2 (CS2). The Navy ESPC ensemble mean September 2018 minimum sea ice extent initialized with GOFS 3.1 ice thickness was over-predicted by 0.68 M sq.km (5.27 M sq.km) versus the ensemble set of forecasts initialized with CS2 ice thickness that had an error of 0.40 M sq.km (4.99 M sq.km), a 56% reduction in error. The September mean Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE) shows a 19% improvement for the entire Arctic with the CS2 data versus the control run. Comparison against Upward Looking Sonar (ULS) ice thickness in the Beaufort Sea reveals a lower bias and RMSE with the CS2 forecasts at all three moorings. Ice concentration at these locations is also improved, but neither set of experiments show ice free conditions as observed at moorings A and D.

time-lagged ensembles↗
NASA NTRS2023

Effects of Forcing Differences and Initial Conditions on Inter-Model Agreement in the VolMIP Volc-Pinatubo-Full Experiment

This paper provides initial results from a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the volc-pinatubo-full experiment performed within the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The volc-pinatubo-full experiment is based on an ensemble of volcanic forcing-only climate simulations with the same volcanic aerosol dataset across the participating models (the 1991–1993 Pinatubo period from the CMIP6-GloSSAC dataset). The simulations are conducted within an idealized experimental design where initial states are sampled consistently across models from the CMIP6-piControl simulation providing unperturbed preindustrial background conditions. The multi-model ensemble includes output from an initial set of six participating Earth system models (CanESM5, GISS-E2.1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-E2SL, MPI-ESM1.2-LR and UKESM1). The results show overall good agreement between the different models on the global and hemispheric scales concerning the surface climate responses, thus demonstrating the overall effectiveness of VolMIP's experimental design. However, small yet significant inter-model discrepancies are found in radiative fluxes, especially in the tropics, that preliminary analyses link with minor differences in forcing implementation; model physics, notably aerosol–radiation interactions; the simulation and sampling of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and, possibly, the simulation of climate feedbacks operating in the tropics. We discuss the volc-pinatubo-full protocol and highlight the advantages of volcanic forcing experiments defined within a carefully designed protocol with respect to emerging modelling approaches based on large ensemble transient simulations. We identify how the VolMIP strategy could be improved in future phases of the initiative to ensure a cleaner sampling protocol with greater focus on the evolving state of ENSO in the pre-eruption period.

metadata↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Impact of ENSO and NAO Initial Conditions and Anomalies on the Modeled Response to Pinatubo-Sized Volcanic Forcing

Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 °C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

volcanic eruptions↗
NASA NTRS2009

Failure of Pyrotechnic Operated Valves with Dual Initiators

Investigation of recent pyrovalve failures reveals timing of redundant initiator firings is crucial for reliable operation of pyrovalves. Simultaneous firing, i.e., within a very narrow time frame, was found to be the primary cause of the valve failing to operate. Testing of both single and dual initiators revealed important design characteristics affecting pyrovalve device performance. They include Primer Chamber Assembly (PCA) geometry and material properties, as well as operational effects on combustion product flow, and resulting energy transfer to the booster. The CONAX PCA design has evolved slowly over time undergoing incremental changes to correct known issues. These piecewise changes were verified by limited test, without a full understanding of the overall system impact or effect on margins. Adequate system performance margins may be adversely affected in existing or future systems incorporating a pyrovalve actuated by simultaneous firing of dual initiators.

Failure of Pyrotechnic Operated Valves↗
NASA NTRS1962

EFFECTS OF MODES OF INITIAL IMPERFECTIONS ON THE STABILITY OF CYLINDRICAL SHELLS UNDER AXIAL COMPRESSION

The effects of definite and "indefinite" initial imperfections on the buckling and post buckling behavior of an axially compressed cylindrical shell are analyzed by a nonlinear theory. The definite initial imperfections considered do not contribute to the reduction of the peak buckling load; while the "indefinite" imperfections, expressed in terms of a single factor introduced by Donnell 1 , cause a reduction in the buckling strength. The physical meaning of the imperfection factor, however, needs further clarification. Two theoretical buckling processes are found to be possible. In the early stage of buckling, the cylinder may deform with a comparatively large number of waves of small amplitudes or the cylinder may deform with a comparatively small number of waves of large amplitudes. Further theoretical and experimental studies of the effects of initial imperfections and the process of buckling are suggested.

AXIAL COMPRESSION↗
NASA NTRS1971

Gravity flow of powder in a lunar environment. Part 2: Analysis of flow initiation

A small displacement-small strain finite element technique utilizing the constant strain triangle and incremental constitutive equations for elasticplastic (media nonhardening and obeying a Coulomb yield condition) was applied to the analysis of gravity flow initiation. This was done in a V-shaped hopper containing a powder under lunar environmental conditions. Three methods of loading were examined. Of the three, the method of computing the initial state of stress in a filled hopper prior to drawdown, by adding material to the hopper layer by layer, was the best. Results of the analysis of a typical hopper problem show that the initial state of stress, the elastic moduli, and the strength parameters have an important influence on material response subsequent to the opening of the hopper outlet.

Pariseau, W. G.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Catalysts for initiating the hydrogen-oxygen reaction at 78 K.

Catalysts for initiating reaction of hydrogen with oxygen in gas mixtures at temperatures down to 78 K (-195 C) were sought. A rising-temperature reactor was used for detecting onset of reaction. The platinum metals, especially iridium, platinum, and ruthenium, were the most active. With high concentrations of iridium on an alumina support, reaction initiation was observed at -195 C for a helium stream containing 3% hydrogen and 1% oxygen. Best results were obtained when the catalyst had been preheated in hydrogen and cooled in a hydrogen environment before being contacted with oxygen-containing gas. The initiation is interpreted to be the result of transient phenomena which occur when a hydrogen-oxygen mixture contacts an active catalyst. Chemisorption of oxygen and formation of some water, along with water adsorption on the support, serve to raise the temperature to a point where true catalysis can proceed.

Jennings, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The minimum free-stream wind speed for initiating motion of surface material on Mars

Estimates of the minimum free-stream wind speed that is required for initiating the motion of surficial material on Mars have ranged from 30 to about 200 meters per second. Thus the best value for this quantity is not well established. Graphical comparison of much of the pertinent data taken in the laboratory and in the field on Earth provides a minimum value for the Bagnold coefficient of 0.08 and this in turn provides a minimum value for the threshold friction velocity of 1.3 meters per second for initiating motion of particulate matter on Mars at low elevations where the pressure is 7 millibars. The most appropriate value of the ratio of friction velocity to free-stream velocity for putative unstable condition appears to be 0.026. Thus the minimum free-stream wind speed for initiating motion is obtained as 50 meters per second. If the surface material on Mars, however, is less cohesive than that on earth, the minimum value may be smaller.

Wood, G. P.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Interplanetary field and plasma during initial phase of geomagnetic storms

Twenty-three geomagnetic storm events during 1966 to 1970 were studied by using simultaneous interplanetary magnetic field and plasma parameters. Explorer 33 and 35 field and plasma data were analyzed on large-scale (hourly) and small-scale (3 min.) during the time interval coincident with the initial phase of the geomagnetic storms. The solar-ecliptic Bz component turns southward at the end of the initial phase, thus triggering the main phase decrease in Dst geomagnetic field. The By component also shows large fluctuations along with Bz. When there are no clear changes in the Bz component, the By shows abrupt changes at the main phase onset. On the small-scale, behavior of the magnetic field and electric field were studied in detail for the three events; it is found that the field fluctuations in By, Bz and Ey and Ez are present in the initial phase. In the large-scale, the behavior field remains quiet because the small-scale variations are averaged out. It appears that large as well as small time scale fluctuations in the interplanetary field and plasma help to alter the internal electromagnetic state of the magnetosphere so that a ring current could causing a geomagnetic storm decrease.

Patel, V. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The effect of initial flaw configuration on leak critical pressure vessel design

The effect of initial flaw shape and depth on the cycles required to produce a pressure leak condition in parent and welded 2219-T87 aluminum was examined for thicknesses from 0.04 to 0.3 inch. Initial flaw aspect ratios of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.15 were examined for tests conducted at a frequency of 4 Hz at room temperature and at 300 F. A computer program developed by Forman was used to predict the cycles to leak curve as a function of initial crack aspect ratio, material thickness, and specimen type and the results compared with the experimental data. Sources of error in the crack propagation analysis and the interface with NDI capabilities are discussed.

Pettit, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Programmed pulsing to initiation apparatus for electroexplosive testing

An electroexplosive device accepts electrical energy and converts it into heat which is used to initiate a primary explosion. Disadvantages of the current electroexplosive testing method have led to the development of a new testing procedure which is based on a principle of programmed pulsing to initiation. A series of stepwise increasing energy pulses is applied to the device which is tested until the initiation of the explosion occurs. The test principle is discussed along with the design of the apparatus.

Rosenthal, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Interplanetary field and plasma during initial phase of geomagnetic storms

A study has been conducted of a large number of geomagnetic storms occurring during the period from 1966 to 1970. Questions of data selection are discussed and the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field during the initial phase is examined. Small-scale interplanetary fields during the initial phase are also considered, taking into account important features of small-scale variations in the interplanetary field and plasma for three storms. Details concerning 23 geomagnetic storms and the interplanetary magnetic field are presented in a table. A study of the initial phase of these storms indicates that in most of these events, the solar-ecliptic Z component of the interplanetary magnetic field turns southward when the main phase decrease begins.

Patel, V. L.↗