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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling kilometer-scale E3SM land model simulation over North America: A new integrated framework solution

This study introduces a novel framework designed to enhance the performance, scalability, and portability of the kilometer-scale E3SM Land Model (km-ELM) within the E3SM modeling infrastructure. By seamlessly integrating cutting-edge data tools, we address existing challenges such as slow performance, limited scalability, and difficulties in software integration in current data-driven ELM simulation over large geographic areas. Our innovative approach leverages the KiloCraft data toolkit to generate unified inputs for simulations ranging from a single-cite case, to a 72,083-cell regional case to a continental configuration encompassing 21.6 million land grid cells at a 1 km × 1 km resolution. We conduct extensive strong- and weak-scaling experiments on three state-of-the-art supercomputers, utilizing up to 100,800 CPU cores across 2400 compute nodes to evaluate end-to-end metrics including wall-clock time, simulation-years-per-day (SYPD), initialization costs, and I/O throughput. Our results reveal the land (LND) component’s efficient scaling, demonstrating near-ideal weak scaling and strong-scaling parallel efficiencies reaching up to 87% at 50,400 cores. We confirm portability and reproducibility through bitwise-equivalent outputs across different machines using identical inputs over supported machines. Notably, at extreme scales, we identify I/O as a critical bottleneck and that leads to effective solution with the SCORPIO/ADIOS stack. Collectively, these findings validate the deployment of km-ELM at a continental scale with high parallel efficiency and provide essential guidance on configuration, decomposition, and I/O settings for optimized kilometer-scale land simulations in E3SM. This work emphasizes the innovative design and practical solutions that enhance the operational capabilities of km-ELM, focusing on software performance and scalability while leaving detailed scientific evaluations of simulated land processes for future investigations.

E3SM land model (ELM), km-ELM, scalability, perfor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracking cropland transitions: A comparative analysis of U.S. land cover change data

There are a growing number of land cover data available for the conterminous United States, supporting various applications ranging from biofuel regulatory decisions to habitat conservation assessments. These datasets vary in their source information, frequency of data collection and reporting, land class definitions, categorical detail, and spatial scale and time intervals of representation. These differences limit direct comparison, contribute to disagreements among studies, confuse stakeholders, and hamper our ability to confidently report key land cover trends in the U.S. Here we assess changes in cropland derived from the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) dataset from the U.S. Geological Survey and compare them with analyses of three established land cover datasets across the coterminous U.S. from 2008-2017: (1) the National Resources Inventory (NRI), (2) a dataset Lark et al. 2020 derived from the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and (3) a dataset from Potapov et al. 2022. LCMAP reports more stable cropland and less stable noncropland in all comparisons, likely due to its more expansive definition of cropland which includes managed grasslands (pasture and hay). Despite these differences, net cropland expansion from all four datasets was comparable (5.18-6.33 million acres), although the geographic extent and type of conversion differed. LCMAP projected the largest cropland expansion in the southern Great Plains, whereas other datasets projected the largest expansion in the northwestern and central Midwest. Most of the pixel-level disagreements (86%) between LCMAP and Lark et al. 2020 were due to definitional differences among datasets, whereas the remainder (14%) were from a variety of causes. Cropland expansion in the LCMAP likely reflects conversions of more natural areas, whereas cropland expansion in other data sources also captures conversion of managed pasture to cropland. The particular research question considered (e.g., habitat versus soil carbon) should influence which data source is more appropriate.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

County Land-Use Regulations for Solar Energy Development in Colorado

We present a survey of county-level policies on ground-mounted solar development across Colorado, including both solar-specific ordinances as well as general land-use code that might be applicable in counties without solar-specific policies. This report provides an accessible reference for stakeholders interested in identifying counties with particular regulations or in analyzing the diversity of regulations across Colorado. We defined a set of search criteria to find information on solar definitions and classifications, permitting processes, and use-specific requirements in each of Colorado's 64 counties. With those criteria, we reviewed relevant ordinances, land-use code, and comprehensive and master plans. If any uncertainties were identified, we contacted county officials for clarification. The findings are categorized and mapped to illustrate the distribution of key policies adopted across Colorado's counties on the following topics: solar definitions, solar siting policy documentation, categorization of PV systems for permitting, 1041 permitting, solar on agricultural land, panel height restrictions, fencing requirements, vegetation management, visual impacts, decommissioning plans, and financial assurance for decommissioning. Additionally, we identify and discuss policies that might impact the deployment of agrivoltaics, a dual land use combining both agriculture and solar on the same land, which might not fit neatly in existing zoning definitions and solar-specific regulations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Challenging a Global Land Surface Model in a Local Socio-Environmental System

Land surface models (LSMs) predict how terrestrial fluxes of carbon, water, and energy change with abiotic drivers to inform the other components of Earth system models. Here, we focus on a single human-dominated watershed in southwestern Michigan, USA. We compare multiple processes in a commonly used LSM, the Community Land Model (CLM), to observational data at the single grid cell scale. For model inputs, we show correlations (Pearson’s R) ranging from 0.46 to 0.81 for annual temperature and precipitation, but a substantial mismatch between land cover distributions and their changes over time, with CLM correctly representing total agricultural area, but assuming large areas of natural grasslands where forests grow in reality. For CLM processes (outputs), seasonal changes in leaf area index (LAI; phenology) do not track satellite estimates well, and peak LAI in CLM is nearly double the satellite record (5.1 versus 2.8). Estimates of greenness and productivity, however, are more similar between CLM and observations. Summer soil moisture tracks in timing but not magnitude. Land surface reflectance (albedo) shows significant positive correlations in the winter, but not in the summer. Looking forward, key areas for model improvement include land cover distribution estimates, phenology algorithms, summertime radiative transfer modelling, and plant stress responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mobilizing mine lands for biobased decarbonization strategies

Over 163 000 ha of mine lands in Pennsylvania (PA) have the potential to produce willow as a feedstock for renewable energy generation. Each year these lands could produce between 454 000 and 907 000 dry Mg of willow, which can be a feedstock for bioenergy (i.e., biopower) with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. We used a spatially explicit model to explore cost-minimized allocation of willow biomass from abandoned mine lands (AML) to be used for BECCS or SAF production and to abate carbon dioxide. The results suggest that between 454 000 and 907 000 dry Mg of biomass can be produced on AML in PA at costs from $94 to $250 per dry Mg. This AML willow biomass could be combined with other available biomass and aggregated to ten facilities to produce 17.9 TWh of power; alternatively, it could produce 958 million liters of jet fuel, 638 million liters of renewable diesel, and 1.289 billion liters of naphtha, along with 0.735 TWh of electricity. From this analysis, in PA, under the BECCS pathway, up to 36 million Mg per year of CO2 could be abated at costs of up to $134 per Mg; under the SAF pathway, up to 17.5 million Mg per year of CO2 could be abated at costs up to $150 per Mg of CO2. The use of mine land willow as a supplemental feedstock for SAF and BECCS would need strong incentive programs if costs of production are to be comparable with production on agricultural land.

Wahlstrom, Mallory [Pennsylvania State University]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas

Abstract Under global warming, dry and hot events have been increasing in recent decades and are projected to increase in the future across global land areas. The impacts of compound dry and hot events may lead to increased stress to the natural and human systems than separate dry or hot events. Thus, quantitative assessments of global land areas affected by these compound events are needed to understand their risks. This study focuses on the variation in global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events for both historical and future periods using observations from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. Based on historical observations and simulations, a substantial increase in the spatial extent of these compound events was detected, especially since the 1980s. Climate model projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario reveal that both global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events will increase to approximately 1.7–1.8 times by the end of the 21st century. Based on different thresholds of compound events, the spatial extent of global land areas during the June–July–August (December–January–February) season will increase by 12.38–17.20% (7.83–11.19%) in 2050–2099 relative to that in 1950–1999, and the spatial extent of global cropland areas will increase by 14.69–19.63% (9.60–14.48%). The increase in areas affected by compound dry and hot events may lead to more losses in different sectors in the future and more efforts are needed to cope with their potential impacts.

Wu, Xinying↗
DOE OSTI2020

Management opportunities for soil carbon sequestration following agricultural land abandonment

The widespread historical and ongoing abandonment of agricultural lands worldwide presents important opportunities for promoting climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration. The default management outcome of abandonment is natural regeneration through ecological succession. However, several different management strategies and new land uses for abandoned agricultural lands have been recommended by the scientific community in recent years. This paper reviews the foremost proposed strategies and compares their soil carbon sequestration potentials. Six major categories have been proposed globally. Each proposal has positive and negative outcomes depending on site-specific factors and management objectives. Accordingly, no single strategy is ideal in all scenarios and a combination of strategies addresses multiple rural development goals concurrently. A combination of passive and active management techniques is the most effective approach for maximizing soil carbon sequestration over large geographic scales, while other strategies can be designed to also promote low-carbon land use practices and fossil fuel substitution. The implications of each proposal highlighted here demonstrates the positive role that abandoned agricultural lands can serve in climate change mitigation efforts, supporting policymakers tasked with planning the future of regions undergoing abandonment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phylogenomics reveals convergent evolution of red-violet coloration in land plants and the origins of the anthocyanin biosynthetic pathway

The flavonoids, one of the largest classes of plant secondary metabolites, are found in lineages that span the land plant phylogeny and play important roles in stress responses and as pigments. Perhaps the most well-studied flavonoids are the anthocyanins that have human health benefits and help plants attract pollinators, regulate hormone production, and confer resistance to abiotic and biotic stresses. The canonical biochemical pathway responsible for the production of these pigments is well-characterized for flowering plants yet its conservation across deep divergences in land plants remains debated and poorly understood. Many early land plants such as mosses, liverworts, and ferns produce flavonoid pigments, but their biosynthetic origins and homologies to the anthocyanin pathway remain uncertain. We conducted phylogenetic analyses using full genome sequences representing nearly all major green plant lineages to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the anthocyanin biosynthetic pathway then test the hypothesis that genes in this pathway are present in early land plants. We found that the entire pathway was not intact until the most recent common ancestor of seed plants and that orthologs of many downstream enzymes are absent from seedless plants including mosses, liverworts, and ferns. Our results also highlight the utility of phylogenetic inference, as compared to pairwise sequence similarity, in orthology assessment within large gene families that have complex duplication-loss histories. Here, we suggest that the production of red-violet flavonoid pigments widespread in seedless plants, including the 3-deoxyanthocyanins, requires the activity of novel, as-yet discovered enzymes, and represents convergent evolution of red-violet coloration across land plants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height From Wind Profiling Radar and Slab Models and Its Responses to Seasonality of Land Cover, Subsidence, and Advection

In this study, we evaluated the effect of land cover, atmospheric subsidence, and advection on the annual dynamics of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height from two contrasting sites. The first site is the Walker Branch forest, a deciduous forest of temperate climate, complex topography, and cloudy summers. The second site is the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a site of Mediterranean climate, flat terrain on a local scale, and clear summers. After testing a new algorithm to calculate ABL heights from 915 MHz radar wind profilers, we evaluated a hierarchy of three slab models to recreate the diurnal and annual patterns of ABL growth. We found that the lower ABL heights in the Delta, particularly during late summer, are driven by the combined effects of increased atmospheric subsidence and marine air advection. In both sites, the annual pattern of ABL height was strongly correlated to total daily incoming radiation, and in the Delta, the annual pattern of ABL height closely followed the seasonal patterns of sensible heat flux from a mosaic of different land covers. A land composite of latent and sensible heat fluxes obtained through a meso-network of eddy covariance measurements and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission resulted in higher model skill, thus showing that land cover heterogeneity is an important driver of ABL growth. To conclude, model simulations show that in the Delta, restoring agricultural land to wetlands with large open water areas could result in a reduction of ABL height during those months with low subsidence and advection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Coastal Groundwater Table Simulated by an Earth System Model With a Land‐Ocean Coupling Scheme

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) poses a severe threat to the coastal environment through seawater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. The rising groundwater table also exacerbates the risk of pluvial, fluvial, and groundwater flooding in coastal regions. However, current Earth system models (ESMs) commonly ignore the exchanges of water at the land‐ocean interface. To address this gap, we developed a novel land‐ocean hydrologic coupling scheme in a state‐of‐the‐science ESM, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The new scheme includes the lateral exchange between seawater and groundwater and the vertical infiltration of seawater driven by the SLR‐induced inundation. Simulations were performed with the updated E3SMv2 for the global land‐ocean interface to assess the impacts of SLR on coastal groundwater under a high CO 2 emission scenario. By the middle of this century, seawater infiltration on the inundated areas will be the dominant component in the land‐ocean coupling process, while the lateral subsurface flow exchange will be much smaller. The SLR‐induced seawater infiltration will raise the groundwater levels, enhance evapotranspiration, and increase runoff with distinct spatial patterns globally in the future. Although the coupling process is induced by SLR, we found topography and warming temperature have more control on the coupling impacts, probably due to the relatively modest magnitude of SLR during the selected future period. Overall, our study suggests significant groundwater and seawater exchange at the land‐ocean interface, which needs to be considered in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO 2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Urban land patterns can moderate population exposures to climate extremes over the 21st century

Abstract Climate change and global urbanization have often been anticipated to increase future population exposure (frequency and intensity) to extreme weather over the coming decades. Here we examine how changes in urban land extent, population, and climate will respectively and collectively affect spatial patterns of future population exposures to climate extremes (including hot days, cold days, heavy rainfalls, and severe thunderstorm environments) across the continental U.S. at the end of the 21st century. Different from common impressions, we find that urban land patterns can sometimes reduce rather than increase population exposures to climate extremes, even heat extremes, and that spatial patterns instead of total quantities of urban land are more influential to population exposures. Our findings lead to preliminary suggestions for embedding long-term climate resilience in urban and regional land-use system designs, and strongly motivate searches for optimal spatial urban land patterns that can robustly moderate population exposures to climate extremes throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Downscaling SSP-consistent global spatial urban land projections from 1/8-degree to 1-km resolution 2000–2100

Abstract Long-term, spatial urban land projections that simultaneously offer global coverage and local-scale empirical accuracy are rare. Recently a set of such projections was produced using data-science-based simulations and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These projections update at decadal time intervals from 2000 to 2100 with a spatial resolution of 1/8 degree, while many socio-environmental studies customarily run their analysis and modelling at finer spatial resolutions, e.g. 1-km. Here we develop and validate an algorithm to downscale the 1/8-degree spatial urban land projections to the 1-km resolution. The algorithm uses an iterative process to allocate the decadal amount of urban land expansion originally projected for each 1/8-degree grid to its constituent 1-km grids. The results are a set of global maps showing urban land fractions at the 1-km resolution, updated at decadal intervals from 2000 to 2100, under five different urban land expansion scenarios consistent with the SSPs. The data can support studies of potential interactions between future urbanization and environmental changes across spatial and temporal scales.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The disproportionate impact of enhanced evaporation from melting arctic sea ice on cold-season land precipitation trends

Diminishing Arctic sea ice has led to enhanced evaporation from the Arctic marginal seas (AMS), which is expected to alter precipitation over land. In this work, AMS evaporation is numerically tracked to quantify its contribution to cold-season (October–March) precipitation over land in the Northern Hemisphere during 1980–2021. Results show a significant 32% increase in AMS moisture contribution to land precipitation, corresponding to a 16% increase per million square km loss of sea ice area. Especially over the high-latitude land, despite the fractional contribution of AMS to precipitation being relatively low (8%), the augmented AMS evaporation contributed disproportionately (42%) to the observed upward trend in precipitation. Notably, northern East Siberia exhibited a substantial rise in both the amount and fraction of extreme snowfall sourced from the AMS. Our findings underscore the importance of the progressively ice-free Arctic as an important contributor to the escalating levels of cold-season precipitation and snowfall over northern high-latitude land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perturbation of soil organic carbon induced by land-use change from primary forest

Abstract The impact of land-use change (LUC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) has been a wide concern of land management policymakers because CO 2 emissions induced by LUC have been the second largest carbon source worldwide. However, due to insufficient data quality and limited biome coverage, a global big picture of the impact of LUC on SOC is still not clear. This study conducted a meta-analysis on 288 independent observations sourced from 62 peer-reviewed papers to provide a global summary of the change in SOC after the conversion of primary forests into other land-use types. The conversion of primary forest to cropland resulted in the most severe SOC loss (−33.2%), followed by conversion into plantation forests (−22.3%) and secondary forests (−19.1%). Nonetheless, SOC increased by 9.1% after a conversion from primary forests into pasture. More SOC loss was found at sites with lower precipitation for primary forests converted to cropland and plantation forests. The SOC loss decreased consistently with increasing mean annual temperature (MAT) for all four types of LUC. Moreover, the loss of SOC tended to worsen over time when primary forests are converted to cropland or plantation forests. In contrast, SOC loss recovered over time following conversion to secondary forests. The gain of SOC gradually increased over time after conversion to pastures. To conclude, the changes in SOC are related not only to the land-use type but also to precipitation, temperature and turn years after LUC. Due to limited data, this study focuses on soil profiles within 30 cm depth, and future research should explore SOC dynamics induced by LUC at greater depths. Overall, cases of SOC loss of approximately 30% following deforestation were very common (except for conversion to pasture), and the results of this study show that the loss of SOC following LUC should be carefully considered and monitored in land management.

Zhang, Zhiyuan (ORCID:0000000223407001)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A framework for testing soil carbon dynamics post land-use transition in a multisector dynamics model

Soil carbon plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Changes in land use can determine whether carbon is stored or is emitted into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, which has broad implications for the human and Earth systems. These feedbacks to the carbon cycle and their socio-economic drivers are modelled by many global multisector dynamics models to project future possibilities for the human-Earth system. One notable model of this class is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which uses a simplified process to model soil organic carbon (SOC) content after land-use transition across 384 land units. While the current GCAM soil carbon framework is based on scientific principles, it has not been tested against experimental data. This work examines rates of SOC change from GCAM input data. Specifically, first order rate constants derived from model inputs were compared to values from two syntheses to assess GCAM’s accuracy. Welch’s t-tests and linear models were used to determine if rate constants were consistent across all tested geographical areas and land-use transition types. While we found that there was general agreement on the direction and magnitude (i.e., rate) of SOC change, the rate constant derived from GCAM and empirical values differed strongly in a subset of specific instances. These results indicate that GCAM’s current SOC dynamics during land use transition successfully capture broad patterns of change in this critical carbon pool, but should be interpreted with caution at finer spatial scales. One potential cause of these discrepancies is our highly aggregated variable, soil timescale, which could be made more granular to improve accuracy. When using economically rooted multisector dynamics models, such as GCAM, it is critical to understand such model limitations for representing specific Earth system processes.

carbon↗
DOE OSTI2021

Past agricultural land use affects multiple facets of ungulate antipredator behavior

Antipredator behavior affects prey fitness, prey demography, and the strength of ecological interactions. Although predator-prey interactions increasingly occur in habitats that experience multiple forms of human-generated disturbance, it is unclear how different forms of disturbance might affect antipredator behavior. Fire is a contemporary disturbance that has dramatic effects on terrestrial habitats. Such habitats may have also experienced past disturbances, like agricultural land use, that leave lasting legacies on habitat structure (e.g., overstory and understory composition). It is unclear how these past and present disturbances affect the use of different antipredator behaviors, like temporal avoidance and vigilance. We examined whether variation in disturbance regimes generates differences in ungulate antipredator behavior by using cameras to measure white-tailed deer vigilance and activity time across 24 longleaf pine woodlands that vary in past land use and contemporary fire regime. Regardless of land-use history, woodlands with high fire frequencies had 4 times less vegetation cover than low-fire woodlands, generating riskier habitats for deer; however, deer responded to fire with different antipredator strategies depending on land-use history. In nonagricultural woodlands, fire affected deer activity time such that activity was nocturnal in low-fire woodlands and crepuscular in high-fire woodlands. In post-agricultural woodlands, fire affected vigilance and not activity time such that deer were more vigilant in high-fire woodlands than in low-fire woodlands. Furthermore, these results suggest that ungulate antipredator behavior may vary spatially depending on past land use and contemporary fire regime, and such disturbances may generate “landscapes of fear” that persist for decades after agricultural use.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reaction-diffusion modeling provides insights into biophysical carbon-concentrating mechanisms in land plants

Carbon-concentrating mechanisms (CCMs) have evolved numerous times in photosynthetic organisms. They elevate the concentration of CO 2 around the carbon-fixing enzyme rubisco, thereby increasing CO 2 assimilatory flux and reducing photorespiration. Biophysical CCMs, like the pyrenoid-based CCM (PCCM) of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii or carboxysome systems of cyanobacteria, are common in aquatic photosynthetic microbes, but in land plants appear only among the hornworts. To predict the likely efficiency of biophysical CCMs in C 3 plants, we used spatially resolved reaction-diffusion models to predict rubisco saturation and light use efficiency. We found that the energy efficiency of adding individual CCM components to a C 3 land plant is highly dependent on the permeability of lipid membranes to CO 2 , with values in the range reported in the literature that are higher than those used in previous modeling studies resulting in low light use efficiency. Adding a complete PCCM into the leaf cells of a C 3 land plant was predicted to boost net CO 2 fixation, but at higher energetic costs than those incurred by photorespiratory losses without a CCM. Two notable exceptions were when substomatal CO 2 levels are as low as those found in land plants that already use biochemical CCMs and when gas exchange is limited, such as with hornworts, making the use of a biophysical CCM necessary to achieve net positive CO 2 fixation under atmospheric CO 2 levels. This provides an explanation for the uniqueness of hornworts' CCM among land plants and the evolution of pyrenoids multiple times.

Kaste, Joshua A. M.↗