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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Using Total Lightning Observations to Enhance Lightning Safety

Lightning is often the underrated threat faced by the public when it comes to dangerous weather phenomena. Typically, larger scale events such as floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes receive the vast majority of attention by both the general population and the media. This comes from the fact that these phenomena are large, longer lasting, can impact a large swath of society at one time, and are dangerous events. The threat of lightning is far more isolated on a case by case basis, although millions of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes hit this United States each year. While attention is given to larger meteorological events, lightning is the second leading cause of weather related deaths in the United States. This information raises the question of what steps can be taken to improve lightning safety. Already, the meteorological community s understanding of lightning has increased over the last 20 years. Lightning safety is now better addressed with the National Weather Service s access to the National Lightning Detection Network data and enhanced wording in their severe weather warnings. Also, local groups and organizations are working to improve public awareness of lightning safety with easy phrases to remember, such as "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors." The impacts can be seen in the greater array of contingency plans, from airports to sports stadiums, addressing the threat of lightning. Improvements can still be made and newer technologies may offer new tools as we look towards the future. One of these tools is a network of sensors called a lightning mapping array (LMA). Several of these networks exist across the United States. NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), part of the Marshall Spaceflight Center, has access to three of these networks from Huntsville, Alabama, the Kennedy Space Center, and Washington D.C. The SPoRT program s mission is to help transition unique products and observations into the operational forecast environment. SPoRT has been collaborating with the Huntsville National Weather Service (NWS) Office since 2003 and has since included several other offices to better implement LMA observations into real-time applications. Much of that work has focused on the LMA s ability to detect intra-cloud lightning in addition to cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. Combined, these observations are called total lightning. With total lightning observations, NWS offices can enhance their situational awareness and improve severe weather warnings. Just as importantly, the observed intra-cloud flashes often precede the first cloud-to-ground strike by a few minutes. SPoRT and its partner NWS offices are working to develop visualizations and applications to better utilize these data. However, there is a drawback. The LMAs have a short range of no more than 200 km. This is being addressed with the next generation geostationary satellite, GOES-R, which will boast the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). SPoRT, in conjunction with NOAA s GOES-R Proving Ground, is working to prepare the end user community for the GLM era using the LMA observations as a demonstration tool. Working collaboratively with our NWS partners, SPoRT is working to determine how best to integrate these future observations to improve both severe storm warnings and lightning safety.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Time-Resolved Leader Spectra Associated With a Downward Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flash Detected at the Telescope Array Surface Detector

Optical emissions associated with Terrestrial Gamma ray Flashes (TGFs) have recently become important subjects in space-based and ground-based observations as they can help us understand how TGFs are produced during thunderstorms. In this paper, we present the first time-resolved leader spectra of the optical component associated with a downward TGF. The TGF was observed by the Telescope Array Surface Detector (TASD) simultaneously with other lightning detectors, including a Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), an INTerFerometer (INTF), a Fast Antenna (FA), and a spectroscopic system. The spectroscopic system recorded leader spectra at 29,900 frames per second (33.44 μs time resolution), covering a spectral range from 400 to 900 nm, with 2.1 nm per pixel. The recordings of the leader spectra began 11.7 ms before the -18 kA return stroke and at a height of 2.37 km above the ground. These spectra reveal that optical emissions of singly ionized nitrogen and oxygen occur between 167 μs before and 267 μs after the TGF detection, while optical emissions of neutrals (H I, 656 nm; N I, 744 nm, and O I, 777 nm) occur right at the moment of the detection. The time-dependent spectra reveal differences in the optical emissions of lightning leaders with and without downward TGFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA SPoRT GOES-R Proving Ground Activities

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program is a partner with the GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) helping prepare forecasters understand the unique products to come from the GOES-R instrument suite. SPoRT is working collaboratively with other members of the GOES-R PG team and Algorithm Working Group (AWG) scientists to develop and disseminate a suite of proxy products that address specific forecast problems for the WFOs, Regional and National Support Centers, and other NOAA users. These products draw on SPoRT s expertise with the transition and evaluation of products into operations from the MODIS instrument and the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA). The MODIS instrument serves as an excellent proxy for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) that will be aboard GOES-R. SPoRT has transitioned and evaluated several multi-channel MODIS products. The true and false color products are being used in natural hazard detection by several SPoRT partners to provide better observation of land features, such as fires, smoke plumes, and snow cover. Additionally, many of SPoRT s partners are coastal offices and already benefit from the MODIS sea surface temperature composite. This, along with other surface feature observations will be developed into ABI proxy products for diagnostic use in the forecast process as well as assimilation into forecast models. In addition to the MODIS instrument, the NALMA has proven very valuable to WFOs with access to these total lightning data. These data provide situational awareness and enhanced warning decision making to improve lead times for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. One effort by SPoRT scientists includes a lightning threat product to create short-term model forecasts of lightning activity. Additionally, SPoRT is working with the AWG to create GLM proxy data from several of the ground based total lightning networks, such as the NALMA. The evaluation will focus on the vastly improved spatial coverage of the GLM, but with the trade-off of lower resolution compared to the NALMA. In addition to the above tasks, SPoRT will make these data available in the NWS next generation display software, AWIPS II. This has already been successfully completed for the two basic GLM proxies. SPoRT will use these products to train forecasters on the capabilities of GOES-R and foster feedback to develop additional products, visualizations, and requirements beneficial to end users needs. These developments and feedback will be made available to the GOES-R Proving Ground for the upcoming 2010 Spring Program in Norman, Oklahoma.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Characteristics of RF Lightning Emission at 2 Ghz and 250 Mhz

Radio frequency emissions in the S-band and VHF range from lightning discharges are recorded by a facility developed at MSFC as part of a feasibility study of a satellite-based lightning mapping system. The recording facility receives RF emissions in both vertical and horizontal polarization and stores the data on magnetic tape. Output from any one antenna may also be selected for high speed digitization and disk storage. Improvement in both hardware and software have enhanced significantly the accuracy of data characterization and the speed of data collection. Emission records at VHF have higher signal strength than the S-band as expected. The records of cloud-to-ground discharges obtained so far give a 7-33 V/M peak equivalent signal strength (1 KHz at 10 kilometer) in the S-band range. The CG discharge structure is recognizable in most of the data collected. Considerable RF activity is present throughout the VHF records. The S-band data shows signals associated with limited portions of discharge history. The records obtained are from lightning activities within a 10 mile range.

Jalali, F.↗
NASA NTRS2016

WRF-Chem Simulations of Lightning-NOx Production and Transport in Oklahoma and Colorado Thunderstorms Observed During DC3

The focus of this analysis is on lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) and their distribution for two thunderstorms observed during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in May-June 2012. The Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model is used to perform cloud-resolved simulations for the May 29-30 Oklahoma severe convection, which contained one supercell, and the June 6-7 Colorado squall line. Aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) collected during DC3 are used in comparisons against the model-simulated lightning flashes generated by the flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) incorporated into the model, as well as the model-simulated LNOx predicted in the anvil outflow. Newly generated FRPSs based on DC3 radar observations and Lightning Mapping Array data are implemented in the model, along with previously developed schemes from the literature. The results of these analyses will also be compared between storms to investigate which FRPSs were most appropriate for the two types of convection and to examine the variation in the LNOx production. The simulated LNOx results from WRF-Chem will also be compared against other previously studied mid-latitude thunderstorms.

Lightning↗
NASA NTRS2013

On the Electrification of Pyrocumulus Clouds

The electrification (or lack thereof) of pyrocumulus clouds is examined for several different wildfires that occurred during 2012‐2013. For example, pyrocumulus clouds above three Colorado wildfires (Hewlett Gulch, High Park, and Waldo Canyon; all occurred during summer 2012) electrified and produced small intracloud discharges whenever the smoke plumes grew to high altitudes (over 10 km above mean sea level, or MSL). This occurred during periods of rapid wildfire growth, as indicated by the shortwave infrared channel on a geostationary satellite, as well as by incident reports. In the Hewlett Gulch case, the fire growth led to increased updrafts within the plume, as inferred by multiple‐Doppler radar syntheses, which led to the vertical development and subsequent electrification ‐ a life cycle as short as 30 minutes. The lightning, detected by a three‐dimensional lightning mapping network, was favored in high‐altitude regions (~10 km MSL) containing modest reflectivities (25 dBZ and lower), ~0 dB differential reflectivity, and reduced correlation coefficient (~0.6‐0.7). This indicated the likely presence of ice particles (crystals and aggregates, possibly rimed) mixed with ash. Though neither multiple‐Doppler nor polarimetric observations were available during the electrification of the High Park and Waldo Canyon plumes, their NEXRAD observations showed reflectivity structures consistent with Hewlett Gulch. In addition, polarimetric and multiple‐Doppler scanning of unelectrified High Park plumes indicated only irregularly shaped ash, and not ice, was present (i.e., reflectivities < 25 dBZ, differential reflectivity > 5 dB, correlation < 0.4), and there was no broaching of the 10 km altitude. Based on these results, the electrification likely was caused by ice‐based processes that did not involve significant amounts of graupel. Results for pyrocumulus clouds above notable 2013 wildfires that also experienced rapid growth (e.g., Black Forest, Yarnell Hill, West Fork, Tres Lagunas, etc.) will be compared against the 2012 cases, with special emphasis on polarimetric NEXRAD and available lightning measurements, in order to better understand the physical processes responsible for pyrocumulus electrification.

Lang, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Severe Weather Outbreak of 10 November 2002: Lightning and Radar Analysis of Storms in the Deep South

On the afternoon and evening of 10 November 2002, the Midwest and Deep South were struck by a major outbreak of severe storms that produced some 80 tornadoes. In terms of number of tornadoes, this was the largest outbreak in the United States since November 1992. Some 32 of the tornadoes occurred in Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, including several long-track killers. We use the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and other data sources to perform a comprehensive analysis of the structure and evolution of the outbreak. Most of the Southern tornadoes occurred in isolated, fast-moving supercell storms that formed in warm, moist air ahead of a major cold front. Storms tended to form in lines parallel to storm cell motion, resulting in many communities being hit multiple times by severe storms that evening. Supercells in Tennessee produced numerous strong tornadoes with short to medium-length track paths, while the supercells further south produced several very long-track tornadoes. Radar data indicate that the Tennessee storms tended to split frequently, apparently limiting their ability to sustain long-lived tornadoes, while storms further south split at most one time. The differences between these storms appear to be related to the presence of stronger jetstream winds in Tennessee relative to those present in Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. LMA-derived flash rates associated with most of the supercell storm cores were about 1-2 flashes per second. Rapid increases in lightning rates (or "jumps") occurred prior to tornado touchdown in many instances. Lightning "holes" (lightning-free regions associated with the echo-free vault) occurred in two of the Tennessee supercells. The complexity of the relationship between lightning and storm severity is revealed by the behavior of one Alabama supercell, which produced a peak flash rate of nearly 14 flashes per second, well after the end of its long-track tornado, while interacting and ultimately merging with a daughter supercell on its southwest flank. Close examination of this powerful storm indicates that its prodigious flash rate was the result of strong flash activity over an unusually large area, rather than a concentrated core of extremely high flash rate activity.

Buechler, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Polarimetric and Multi-Doppler Radar Observations of Electrified and Unelectrified Wildfire Smoke Plumes

Pyrocumulus clouds above three Colorado wildfires (Hewlett Gulch, High Park, and Waldo Canyon; all occurred during summer 2012) electrified and produced small intracloud discharges whenever the smoke plumes grew to high altitudes (over 10 km above mean sea level, or MSL). This occurred during periods of rapid wildfire growth, as indicated by the shortwave infrared channel on a geostationary satellite, as well as by incident reports. In the Hewlett Gulch case, the fire growth led to increased updrafts within the plume, as inferred by multiple‐ Doppler radar syntheses, which led to the vertical development and subsequent electrification ‐ a life cycle as short as 30 minutes. The lightning, detected by a threedimensional lightning mapping network, was favored in high‐altitude regions (~10 km MSL) containing modest reflectivities (25 dBZ and lower), ~0 dB differential reflectivity, and reduced correlation coefficient (~0.6‐0.7). This indicated the likely presence of ice particles (crystals and aggregates, possibly rimed) mixed with ash. Though neither multiple‐Doppler nor polarimetric observations were available during the electrification of the High Park and Waldo Canyon plumes, their NEXRAD observations showed reflectivity structures consistent with Hewlett Gulch. In addition, polarimetric and multiple‐Doppler scanning of unelectrified High Park plumes indicated only irregularly shaped ash, and not ice, was present (i.e., reflectivities < 25 dBZ, differential reflectivity > 5 dB, correlation < 0.4), and there was no broaching of the 10 km altitude. Based on these results, the electrification likely was caused by ice‐based processes that did not involve significant amounts of graupel. The results demonstrate the scientific value of multiple‐Doppler and polarimetric radar observations of wildfire smoke plumes ‐ including the ability to distinguish between regions of pure hydrometeors, regions of pure ash, and mixtures of both ‐ and also suggest a possible new application for lightning data in monitoring wildfires.

Lang, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Illumination of Thunderclouds by Lightning: 1. The Extent and Altitude of Optical Lightning Sources

Abstract Optical space‐based lightning sensors including NOAA's Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) detect lightning though its transient illumination of the surrounding clouds. What space‐based optical lightning sensors measure is influenced by the physical attributes of the light source, the location of the source within the cloud scene, and the spatial variations in cloud composition. We focus on the lightning channels that serve as optical sources for GLM groups and flashes in this first part of our thundercloud illumination study. We match Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) sources with GLM groups and flashes during two thunderstorms to examine channel segments that are active during optical emission. We find that in each storm, the LMA sources matched with GLM groups are small (median: 3 km) compared to GLM pixels (nominal: 8 km), and preferentially come from high altitudes in the cloud (>8–10 km). The detection advantage for high‐altitude sources permits GLM to resolve faint optical pulses near the cloud top that might be missed from lower altitudes. However, the most energetic groups can be detected from all altitudes, and the largest groups largely originate at low altitudes. The relationship between group energy and illuminated area depends on flash development within the cloud medium, and flash development into different cloud regions can be identified by tracking GLM metrics of cloud illumination over time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Illumination of Thunderclouds by Lightning: 3. Retrieving Optical Source Altitude

Abstract Optical space‐based lightning sensors such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) detect and geolocate lightning by recording rapid changes in cloud top illumination. While lightning locations can be determined to within a pixel on the GLM imaging array, these instruments are not individually able to natively report lightning altitude. It has previously been shown that thunderclouds are illuminated differently based on the altitude of the optical source. In this study, we examine how altitude information can be extracted from the spatial distributions of GLM energy recorded from each optical pulse. We match GLM “groups” with Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) source data that accurately report the 3‐D positions of coincident Radio‐Frequency (RF) emitters. We then use machine learning methods to predict the mean LMA source altitudes matched to GLM groups using metrics from the optical data that describe the amplitude, breadth, and texture of the group spatial energy distribution. The resulting model can predict the LMA mean source altitude from GLM group data with a median absolute error of <1.5 km, which is sufficient to determine the location of the charge layer where the optical energy originated. This model is able to capture changes to the source altitude distribution in response to convective processes in the thunderstorm, and the GLM predictions can reveal the vertical structure of individual flashes ‐ enabling 3‐D flash geolocation with GLM for the first time. Future work will account for differences in thunderstorm charge/precipitation structures and viewing angle across the GLM Field of View.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Severe storm electricity

During FY-85, Researchers conducted a field program and analyzed data. The field program incorporated coordinated measurements made with a NASA U2. Results include the following: (1) ground truth measurements of lightning for comparison with those obtained by the U2; (2) analysis of dual-Doppler radar and dual-VHF lightning mapping data from a supercell storm; (3) analysis of synoptic conditions during three simultaneous storm systems on 13 May 1983 when unusually large numbers of positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) flashes occurred; (4) analysis of extremely low frequency (ELF) wave forms; and (5) an assessment of a cloud -ground strike location system using a combination of mobile laboratory and fixed-base TV video data.

Rust, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Preliminary Optical And Electric Field Pulse Statistics From Storm Overflights During The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study

The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) was conducted during the month of August, 2002 in an area near Key West, Florida. One of the goals of this uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) study was to collect high resolution optical pulse and electric field data from thunderstorms. During the month long campaign, we acquired 5294 lightning generated optical pulses with associated electric field changes. Most of these observations were made while close to the top of the storms. We found filtered mean and median 10-10% optical pulse widths of 875 and 830 microns respectively while the 50-50% mean and median optical pulse widths are 422 and 365 microns respectively. These values are similar to previous results as are the 10-90% mean and median rise times of 327 and 265 microns. The peak electrical to optical pulse delay mean and median were 209 and 145 microns which is longer than one would expect from theoretical results. The results of the pulse analysis will contribute to further validation of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) satellites. Pre-launch estimates of the flash detection efficiency were based on a small sample of optical pulse measurements associated with less than 350 lightning discharges collected by NASA U-2 aircraft in the early 1980s. Preliminary analyses of the ACES measurements show that we have greatly increased the number of optical pulses available for validation of the LIS and other orbital lightning optical sensors. Since the Altus was often close to the cloud tops, many of the optical pulses are from low-energy pulses. From these low-energy pulses, we can determine the fraction of optical lightning pulses below the thresholds of LIS, OTD, and any future satellite-based optical sensors such as the geostationary Lightning Mapping Sensor.

Mach, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improving the Transition of Earth Satellite Observations from Research to Operations

There are significant gaps between the observations, models, and decision support tools that make use of new data. These challenges include: 1) Decreasing the time to incorporate new satellite data into operational forecast assimilation systems, 2) Blending in-situ and satellite observing systems to produce the most accurate and comprehensive data products and assessments, 3) Accelerating the transition from research to applications through national test beds, field campaigns, and pilot demonstrations, and 4) Developing the partnerships and organizational structures to effectively transition new technology into operations. At the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama, a NASA-NOAA-University collaboration has been developed to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The SPoRT Center research focus is to improve forecasts through new observation capability and the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues such as convective initiation and 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The near real-time availability of high-resolution experimental products of the atmosphere, land, and ocean from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Infrared Spectroradiometer (AIRS), and lightning mapping systems provide an opportunity for science and algorithm risk reduction, and for application assessment prior to planned observations from the next generation of operational low Earth orbiting and geostationary Earth orbiting satellites. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future. The SPoRT Web page is at (http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/sport).

Goodman, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Signatures in Lightning Activity during Tennessee Valley Severe Storms of 5-6 May 2003

During the first week of May 2003, the Tennessee Valley experienced 14 tornadoes. Those that moved across the Tennessee Valley Region of northern Alabama and southern Tennessee provided an opportunity for study us- ing the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). On 5 May a classic supercell trekked across southern Tennessee spawning several tornadoes producing FO-F3 damage; on 6 May a high precipitation supercell moved across northern Alabama producing several FO-F1 tornadoes. The life cycle of these supercells will be discussed by presenting their electrical and radar evolution.

Gatlin, Patrick N.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The NASA Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Research to Operations Test Bed

Over the last three years, NASA/MSFC scientists have embarked on an effort to transition unique NASA EOS data/products and research technology to selected NWSEOs in the southeast U.S. This activity, called the Short-term Prediction and - Research Transition (SPoRT) program, supports the NASA Science Mission Directorate and its Earth-Sun System Mission to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth System and its response to natural or human-induced changes that will enable improved prediction capability for climate, weather, and natural hazards. The overarching question related to weather prediction is "How well can weather forecasting duration and reliability be improved by new space-based observations, data assimilation, and modeling?" The transition activity has included the real-time delivery of MODIS data and products to several NWS Forecast Offices. Local NWS FOs have used the MODIS data to complement the coarse resolution GOES data for a number of applications. Specialized products have also been developed and made available to local and remote offices for their weather applications. Data from &e Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network has been used in severe storm forecasts at several offices in the region. At the regional scale and forecast horizons from 0-1 day, the next generation of high-resolution mesoscale forecast and data assimilation models have been used to provide local offices with unique weather forecasts not otherwise available. The continued use of near red-time infusion of NASA science products into high-resolution mesoscale forecast and decision-making models can be expected to improve the model initialization as well as short-term forecasts. A current focus of SPoRT is to expand collaborations to include contributions from the assimilation of AMSR-E data in the ADASIARPS forecast system (OU), inclusion of MODIS SSTs and AIRS thermodynamic profiles in the WRF, and to extend the distribution of real-time MODIS and AMSR-E data and products to the Florida coastal WFOs. A SPoRT Test bed, together with input from other interagency and university partners, will provide a means and a process to effectively transition ESE observations and technology to NWS operations and decision makers at both the globdnational and regional scales. The transition of emerging experimental products into operations through the SPoRT infrastructure will allow NASA to foster and accelerate the progress of this Science Mission Directorate research strategy over the coming years.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Use of High-resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of recent forecast models such as WRF, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Six-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data yield the most realistic simulations. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics are employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, William E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

High-Resolution WRF Forecasts of Lightning Threat

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)lightning and precipitation observations have confirmed the existence of a robust relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Initial experiments using 6-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. The WRF has been initialized on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics is employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

Goodman, S. J.↗