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NASA NTRS2021

Communicating Respiratory Health Risk Among Children using a Global Air Quality Index

Air pollution poses a serious threat to children’s respiratory health around the world. Satellite remote-sensing technology and air quality models can provide pollution data on a global scale, necessary for riskcommunication efforts in regions without ground-based monitoring networks. Several large centers, including NASA, produce global pollution forecasts that may be used alongside air quality indices to communicate local, daily risk information to the public. Here we present a health-based, globally applicable air quality index developed specifically to reflect the respiratory health risks among children exposed to elevated outdoor air pollution. Additive, excess-risk air quality indices were developed using 51 different coefficients derived from time-series health studies evaluating the impacts of ambient fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone on children's respiratory morbidity outcomes. A total of four indices were created which varied based on whether or not the underlying studies controlled for co-pollutants and in the adjustment of excess risks of individual pollutants. Combined with historical estimates of air pollution provided globally at a 25x25 km2 spatial resolution from the NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System composition forecast (GEOS-CF) model, each of these indices were examined in a global sample of 664 small and 140 large cities for study year 2017. Adjusted indices presented the most normal distributions of locally-scaled index values, which has been shown to improve associations with health risks, while indices based on coefficients controlling for co-pollutants had little effect on index performance. We provide the steps and resources need to apply our final adjusted index at the local level using freely-available forecasting data from the GEOS-CF model, which can provide risk communication information for cities around the world to better inform individual behavior modification to best protect children's respiratory health.

Air Qualilty↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probing of Local Structure in Laves Compound TbFe 2

Abstract The Laves compounds Tb 1‐x Dy x Fe 2 have attracted much interest due to the giant magnetostriction effect appearing at their morphotropic phase boundary compositions. Although previous studies have established the relationship between the average structure and magnetostrictive properties in these compounds, there is a lack of characterization of their local structures. In this paper, as a first step toward this goal, the evolution of the local structure of the terminal compound (TbFe 2 ) of this system is reported, in an attempt to provide useful information about interatomic bonding in this system. The pair distribution function (PDF) results suggest that the compound presents the rhombohedral local crystal symmetry. The lattice at the local scale shows abnormal thermal expansion which is different from the long scale structure. The different role of the Tb─Fe bond and Fe─Fe bond in affecting the crystal lattice is revealed. These findings highlight the important role of local structure in determining the magnetostrictive properties of the Laves compounds.

Kou, Ronghui↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gas metallicity distributions in SDSS-IV MaNGA galaxies: what drives gradients and local trends?

ABSTRACT The gas metallicity distributions across individual galaxies and across galaxy samples can teach us much about how galaxies evolve. Massive galaxies typically possess negative metallicity gradients, and mass and metallicity are tightly correlated on local scales over a wide range of galaxy masses; however, the precise origins of such trends remain elusive. Here, we employ data from SDSS-IV MaNGA to explore how gas metallicity depends on the local stellar mass density and on galactocentric radius within individual galaxies. We also consider how the strengths of these dependencies vary across the galaxy mass-size plane. We find that radius is more predictive of local metallicity than stellar mass density in extended lower-mass galaxies, while we find density and radius to be almost equally predictive in higher-mass and more compact galaxies. Consistent with previous work, we find a mild connection between metallicity gradients and large-scale environment; however, this is insufficient to explain variations in gas metallicity behaviour across the mass-size plane. We argue our results to be consistent with a scenario in which extended galaxies have experienced smooth gas accretion histories, producing negative metallicity gradients over time. We further argue that more compact and more massive systems have experienced increased merging activity that disrupts this process, leading to flatter metallicity gradients and more dominant density-metallicity correlations within individual galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2013

MODIS 3 Km Aerosol Product: Applications over Land in an Urban/suburban Region

MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites have provided a rich dataset of aerosol information at a 10 km spatial scale. Although originally intended for climate applications, the air quality community quickly became interested in using the MODIS aerosol data. However, 10 km resolution is not sufficient to resolve local scale aerosol features. With this in mind, MODIS Collection 6 is including a global aerosol product with a 3 km resolution. Here, we evaluate the 3 km product over the Baltimore/Washington D.C., USA, corridor during the summer of 2011, by comparing with spatially dense data collected as part of the DISCOVER-AQ campaign these data were measured by the NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and a network of 44 sun photometers (SP) spaced approximately 10 km apart. The HSRL instrument shows that AOD can vary by up to 0.2 within a single 10 km MODIS pixel, meaning that higher resolution satellite retrievals may help to characterize aerosol spatial distributions in this region. Different techniques for validating a high-resolution aerosol product against SP measurements are considered. Although the 10 km product is more statistically reliable than the 3 km product, the 3 km product still performs acceptably, with more than two-thirds of MODIS/SP collocations falling within the expected error envelope with high correlation (R > 0.90). The 3 km product can better resolve aerosol gradients and retrieve closer to clouds and shorelines than the 10 km product, but tends to show more significant noise especially in urban areas. This urban degradation is quantified using ancillary land cover data. Overall, we show that the MODIS 3 km product adds new information to the existing set of satellite derived aerosol products and validates well over the region, but due to noise and problems in urban areas, should be treated with some degree of caution.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS1973

3-D multilateration for measurement of earth crustal deformation and network densification

Discussion of how range and range-difference data types can make possible precise three-dimensional measurement of ground station positions and the position of an artificial signal source, without explicit dependence upon the signal source trajectory. An effective strategy for such measurement is to combine the multilateration approach with a VLBI system using natural radio sources. The VLBI methods would provide a coarse grid of three-dimensional benchmark locations on a regional and global scale. Multilateration stations would then occupy these coarse grid locations and provide a means for highly portable, relatively low-cost units to then densify networks on a regional and local scale. Because a multilateration approach can make use of strong artificial radio sources, it makes possible the use of relatively low-cost, highly mobile stations. Such mobile stations are virtually essential for three dimensional surveying in heavily urbanized areas or in rugged terrain.

Ong, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Expansion of the Real-time Sport-land Information System for NOAA/National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been running a real-time version of the Land Information System (LIS) since summer 2010 (hereafter, SPoRTLIS). The real-time SPoRT-LIS runs the Noah land surface model (LSM) in an offline capacity apart from a numerical weather prediction model, using input atmospheric and precipitation analyses (i.e., "forcings") to drive the Noah LSM integration at 3-km resolution. Its objectives are to (1) produce local-scale information about the soil state for NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) situational awareness applications such as drought monitoring and assessing flood potential, and (2) provide land surface initialization fields for local modeling initiatives. The current domain extent has been limited by the input atmospheric analyses that drive the Noah LSM integration within SPoRT-LIS, specifically the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analyses. Due to the nature of the geographical edges of the Stage IV precipitation grid and its limitations in the western U.S., the SPoRT-LIS was originally confined to a domain fully nested within the Stage IV grid, over the southeastern half of the Conterminous United States (CONUS). In order to expand the real-time SPoRT-LIS to a full CONUS domain, alternative precipitation forcing datasets were explored in year-long, offline comparison runs of the Noah LSM. Based on results of these comparison simulations, we chose to implement the radar/gauge-based precipitation analyses from the National Severe Storms Laboratory as a replacement to the Stage IV product. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS; formerly known as the National Mosaic and multi-sensor Quantitative precipitation estimate) product has full CONUS coverage at higher-resolution, thereby providing better coverage and greater detail than that of the Stage IV product. This paper will describe the expanded/upgraded SPoRT-LIS, present comparisons between the original and upgraded SPoRT-LIS, and discuss the path forward for future collaboration opportunities with SPoRT partners in the NWS.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multicriteria screening evaluation of geothermal resources on mine lands for direct use heating

Abstract Direct use of geothermal energy is the oldest and most versatile form of utilizing geothermal energy. In the last decade, this utilization has significantly increased, especially with the installation of geothermal (ground-source) heat pumps. Many current and inactive mine land sites across the U.S. could be redeveloped with clean energy technologies such as direct use geothermal, which would revitalize former mining communities, help with reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy. We present a multicriteria screening framework to evaluate various aspects of direct-use geothermal projects on mine lands. The criteria are divided into three categories: (1) technical potential, (2) demand and benefits, and (3) regulatory and permitting. We demonstrate the framework using publicly available data on a national scale (continental U.S.). Then, using an example of abandoned coal mines in Illinois and focusing on resource potential, we illustrate how this evaluation can be applied at the state or more local scales when a region’s characteristics drive spatial variability estimates. The strength of this approach is the ability to combine seemingly disparate parameters and inputs from numerous sources. The framework is very flexible—additional criteria can be easily incorporated and weights modified if input data support them. Vice versa, the framework can also help identify additional data needed for evaluating those criteria. The multicriteria screening evaluation methodology provides a framework for identifying potential candidates for detailed site evaluation and characterization.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scaling from Flux Towers to Ecosystem Models: Regional Constraints on Carbon Cycle Processes from Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide (Final Report)

DOE supported research suggests that gross primary productivity (GPP) is largely underestimated by global earth system models [Welp et al., 2011], reflecting the persistent challenge in extrapolating from local-scale GPP observations to global-scale earth system models. This poor understanding of GPP at large spatial scales is of particular concern in tropical forests. In tropical forests, some earth systems models forecast a powerful feedback between a warming climate and a decline in GPP resulting in forest dieback. While this simulated feedback is intensely debated, we lack robust large-scale constraints on GPP that are needed to resolve this debate. In particular, carbon dioxide measurements provide valuable information on net carbon flux, but not on the gross flux associated with GPP. Here we conducted a study of regional-to-global scale GPP using atmospheric carbonyl sulfide to provide a new constraint on GPP mechanisms in earth system models. Our project activities integrated modeling, in situ measurement, and remote sensing techniques to resolve GPP for the Amazon as well as global scale trends. The results of this work included initiating airborne carbonyl sulfide monitoring in the Amazon, training for postdocs and graduate students at a Hispanic Serving Institution, fundamental advances in carbonyl sulfide budgets [e.g. Hilton et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017], and high-profile publications that focused on GPP trends for the Amazon [Stinecipher et al., GRL, 2022] and global historical GPP trends [Campbell, et al., Nature, 2017]. Based on the suggestion of our DOE program manager, we published a state-of-the-science commentary to the scientific community on GPP monitoring with COS [Campbell et al., EOS, 2017] which was selected as the cover story. DOE support was acknowledged in all reports. The importance of this research to understanding climate change was communicated to the general public through community seminars (Rotary, Public Libraries, State Parks), an op-ed (SF Chronicle), and interviews in the mass media including two stories in the New York Times (4/5/17; 7/30/18), one of which was especially widely read after it was featured in the New York Time’s Quote of the Day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Local cation ordering in compositionally complex Ruddlesden–Popper n = 1 oxides

The Ruddlesden–Popper (RP) layered perovskite structure is of great interest due to its inherent tunability, and the emergence and growth of the compositionally complex oxide (CCO) concept endows the RP family with further possibilities. Here, a comprehensive assessment of thermodynamic stabilization, local order/disorder, and lattice distortion was performed in the first two reported examples of lanthanum-deficient La n+1 B n O 3n+1 (n = 1, B = Mg, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn) obtained via various processing conditions. Chemical short-range order (CSRO) at the B-site and the controllable excess interstitial oxygen (δ) in RP-CCOs are uncovered by neutron pair distribution function analysis. Reverse Monte Carlo analysis of the data, Metropolis Monte Carlo simulations, and extended x-ray absorption fine structure analysis implies a modest degree of magnetic element segregation on the local scale. Further, ab initio molecular dynamics simulations results obtained from special quasirandom structure disagree with experimentally observed CSRO but confirm Jahn–Teller distortion of CuO 6 octahedra. These findings highlight potential opportunities to control local order/disorder and excess interstitial oxygen in layered RP-CCOs and demonstrate a high degree of freedom for tailoring application-specific properties. They also suggest a need for expansion of theoretical and data modeling approaches in order to meet the innate challenges of CCO and related high-entropy phases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated parameter and process learning for hydrologic and biogeochemical modules in Earth System Models

Focus area: Primary focal area #2; secondary focal area #3: Learning about parameters and processes of land surface hydrologic and biogeochemical models in Earth System models by integrating machine learning, physics, and big data. Science challenges: How do we maximally leverage big-data observations to improve hydrobiogeochemical process description and parameterization so that such modules more realistically capture hydrologic and vegetation responses and feedbacks under the future climate? For example, how can we leverage physics, limited observations of vegetation and streamflow to better estimate evapotranspiration, and, relatedly, net primary productivity, especially for drought areas? Vegetation plays a critical role in regional and global water cycles; however, existing vegetation models have failed to predict vegetation response to droughts (McDowell & Xu, 2017) , arctic greening (Keenan & Riley, 2018) , and critical transitions between forest and savanna (Hirota et al., 2011) . These studies suggest that when we build process-based models (PBM) parameterized from regional and global plant traits, we tend to poorly describe plant adaptation and local-scale competition processes. The models and their associated parameters assigned for different regions in the world are not capturing essential heterogeneity in vegetation responses at finer spatial scales. Many parameters of the land surface models control hydrology and vegetation dynamics at the same time. The heterogeneity in vegetation response is a function of (i) plant type, (ii) plant size, (iii) competition and succession, (iv) environmental controls, and (v) local variations due to the unique ecological community that are very difficult to describe (e.g., the size of gaps resulting from fire that facilitated the coexistence of pioneering species). In the demographic models, only factors (i) and (iv) were captured, and plant types were generally described only by leaf phenology and climate zones. With current demographic models, we generally consider more traits to define plant types (i) and calibrate these traits to consider factors (ii), (iii) and (iv); however, it is substantially challenging to scale to regional and global simulations due to trait variations across space (Ali et al., 2016). Moreover, it has been noted that hillslope processes, including ridge-to-valley flow and sunny vs. shady slopes are primary organizers of water, energy, and vegetation (Clark et al., 2015; Fan et al., 2019) . Although gradual improvements in the hydrologic model component in earth system models may reduce this error (at a remarkably slow pace), the long-term, gradual impact of hydrology on plant traits are not well captured. Recent work showed that the hydrologic controls exerted by groundwater and lateral flow are primary regulators of rooting depth (Fan et al., 2017) . Such hydrologic controls have seldom been reflected in vegetation model parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

The role of topography in geodetic gravity field modelling

Masses associated with the topography, bathymetry, and its isostatic compensation are a dominant source of gravity field variations, especially at shorter wavelengths. On global scales the topographic/isostatic effects are also significant, except for the lowest harmonics. In practice, though, global effects need not be taken into account as such effects are included in the coefficients of the geopotential reference fields. On local scales, the short-wavelength gravity variations due to the topography may, in rugged terrain, be an order of magnitude larger than other effects. In such cases, explicit or implicit terrain reduction procedures are mandatory in order to obtain good prediction results. Such effects may be computed by space-domain integration or by fast Fourier transformation (FFT) methods. Numerical examples are given for areas of the Canadian Rockies. In principle, good knowledge of the topographic densities is required to produce the smoothest residual field. Densities may be determined from sample measurements or by gravimetric means, but both are somewhat troublesome methods in practice. The use of a standard density, e.g., 2.67 g/cu cm, may often yield satisfactory results and may be put within a consistent theoretical framework. The independence of density assumptions is the key point of the classical Molodensky approach to the geodetic boundary value problem. The Molodensky solutions take into account that land gravity field observations are done on a non-level surface. Molodensky's problem may be solved by integral expansions or more effective FFT methods, but the solution should not be intermixed with the use of terrain reductions. The methods are actually complimentary and may both be required in order to obtain the smoothest possible signal, least prone to aliasing and other effects coming from sparse data coverage, typical of rugged topography.

Forsberg, R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Enhanced magnetic field production during oblique hypervelocity impacts

The natural remanent magnetization of the lunar surface as displayed in returned lunar samples and the data returned by the Apollo subsatellite magnetometer has an unexpectedly high magnitude and exhibits spatial variation at all scales. The origin of the lunar remanent fields may be due to crustal remanence of a core dynamo field occurring early in lunar history prior to extensive modification by impact or remanence of transient fields, particularly associated with impacts, occurring on a local scale throughout lunar history. The presence of an early core dynamo field would have strong consequences for the formation and early evolution of the Moon, yet to deconvolve the role that an internally generated core dynamo field may have had, it is necessary to understand how the magnetic state of the lunar surface has developed through time. Impact-induced magnetism may be an important component of the present magnetic state of the lunar surface. New theoretical considerations suggest that transient magnetic fields within plasma produced by hypervelocity meteorite impacts may have greater significance at larger scales than previously thought.

Crawford, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mapping of the Ronda peridotite massif (Spain) from AVIRIS spectro-imaging survey: A first attempt

In both AVIRIS and ISM data, through the use of mixing models, geological boundaries of the Ronda massif are identified with respect to the surrounding rocks. We can also yield first-order vegetation maps. ISM and AVIRIS instruments give consistent results. On the basis of endmember fraction images, it is then possible to discard areas highly vegetated or not belonging to the peridotite massif. Within the remaining part of the mosaic, spectro-mixing analysis reveals spectral variations in the peridotite massif between the well-exposed areas. Spatially organized units are depicted, related to differences in the relative depth of the absorption band at 1 micron, and it may be due to a different pyroxene content. At this stage, it is worth noting that, although mineralogical variations observed in the rocks are at a sub-pixel scale for the airborne analysis, we see an emerging spatial pattern in the distribution of spectral variations across the massif which might be prevailingly related to mineralogy. Although it is known from fieldwork that the Ronda peridotite massif exhibits mineralogical variations at local scale in the content of pyroxene, and at regional scale in different mineral facies, ranging from garnet-, to spinel- to plagioclase-lherzolites, no attempt has been done yet to produce a synoptic map relating the two scales of analysis. The present work is a first attempt to reach this objective, though a lot more work is still required. In particular, for the purpose of mineralogical interpretation, it is critical to relate the airborne observation to field work and laboratory spectra of Ronda rocks already obtained, with the use of image endmembers and associated reference endmembers. Also, the pretty rough linear mixing model used here is taken as a 'black-box' process which does not necessarily apply correctly to the physical situation at the sub-pixel level. One may think of using the ground-truth observations bearing on the sub-pixel statistical characteristics (texture, structural pattern, surface distribution and vegetation contribution (grass,..)) to produce a more advanced mixing model, physically appropriate to the geologic and environmental contexts.

Pinet, P. C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the emergent scale of bedrock groundwater contribution to headwater mountain streams

We investigated the contribution of bedrock groundwater to streamflow as a function of catchment scale in a headwater stream. Synoptic surveys were conducted during hydrologically important periods of the year using multiple environmental tracers in stream water, soil water, and bedrock groundwater, along a first-order montane stream, in west-central Montana. Sampled analytes included 222 Rn, used to constrain total subsurface flux, and major and minor elements, used in end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) to identify the contributions of soil and bedrock groundwater to the stream. Partitioning between soil-derived and bedrock-derived groundwater was then analyzed as a function of the incremental and accumulated sub-catchment sizes. Radon results indicated that subsurface water contributions accounted for the majority of streamflow at all surveyed times. EMMA results revealed that the bedrock groundwater contribution to streamflow varied between 26% during peak snowmelt and 44% during late summer. Streamflow generation was dominated by soil groundwater contribution along the entire reach, but the bedrock groundwater contribution increased consistently with accumulated sub-catchment size. However, groundwater contributions were not well-correlated with incremental sub-catchment size. The scale at which increased bedrock groundwater discharge can be correlated with sub-catchment size appears to be >1 km 2 for our study. Our results are consistent with a conceptual model where streamflow is predominantly generated by a 3D subsurface nested flow system. Local subsurface heterogeneities control the stream source at local scales but begin to average out at scales >2 km 2 . Our study indicates that, while soil groundwater is the dominant source, bedrock groundwater remains an important and predictable contributor to streamflow throughout the year, even in a snow-dominated, mountainous headwater catchment.

environmental tracers↗

NASA NTRS2005

Urban forms, physical activity and body mass index: a cross-city examination using ISS Earth Observation photographs

Johnson Space Center has archived thousands of astronauts acquired Earth images. Some spectacular images have been widely used in news media and in k-12 class room, but their potential utilizations in health promotion and disease prevention have relatively untapped. The project uses daytime ISS photographs to define city forms and links them to city or metropolitan level health data in a multicity context. Road connectivity, landuse mix and Shannon's information indices were used in the classification of photographs. In contrast to previous remote-sensing studies, which tend to focus on a single city or a portion of a city, this project utilized photographs of 39 U.S. cities. And in contrast to previous health-promotion studies on the built environment, which tend to rely on survey respondents' responses to evaluate road connectivity or mixed land use for a single study site, the project examined the built environments of multiple cities based on ISS photos. It was found that road connectivity and landuse mix were not statistically significant by themselves, but the composite measure of the Shannon index was significantly associated with physical activity, but not BMI. Consequently, leisure-time physical activity seems to be positively associated with the urban complexity scale. It was also concluded that unless they are planned or designed in advance, photographs taken by astronauts generally are not appropriate for a study of a single-site built environment nor are they appropriate for a study of infectious diseases at a local scale. To link urban built environment with city-wide health indicators, both the traditional nadir view and oblique views should be emphasized in future astronauts' earth observation photographs.

Lin, Ge↗

DOE OSTI2026

Direct Observation of Vortex Liquid Droplets in the Iron Pnictide Superconductor CaKFe 4 As 4 at 0.5T c

Type-II superconductors under magnetic fields remain in a quantum-coherent, non-dissipative state as long as vortices are pinned. Dissipation emerges when vortices depin, a process often driven by thermal fluctuations and commonly associated with a melting transition from a vortex solid to a vortex liquid. Macroscopic experiments almost always observe this transition close to the superconducting critical temperature 𝑇 𝑐 . However, how the vortex solid responds to thermal fluctuations at the scale of individual vortices, far below the melting transition, remains largely unexplored. Here, we use scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) to directly visualize vortices in the iron-based superconductor CaKFe 4 ⁢As 4 (𝑇 𝑐 ≈35 K ). We observe the formation of vortex liquid droplets—spatially localized regions where vortices exhibit strong thermal fluctuations—at temperatures as low as 0.5 𝑇 𝑐 . These results demonstrate that the onset of dissipation at the local scale occurs at temperatures significantly below 𝑇𝑐 in type-II superconductors, revealing a previously unrecognized regime of vortex dynamics.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2016

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Populations↗