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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10

Intelligent fault-tolerant controllers

A system with fault tolerant controls is one that can detect, isolate, and estimate failures and perform necessary control reconfiguration based on this new information. Artificial intelligence (AI) is concerned with semantic processing, and it has evolved to include the topics of expert systems and machine learning. This research represents an attempt to apply AI to fault tolerant controls, hence, the name intelligent fault tolerant control (IFTC). A generic solution to the problem is sought, providing a system based on logic in addition to analytical tools, and offering machine learning capabilities. The advantages are that redundant system specific algorithms are no longer needed, that reasonableness is used to quickly choose the correct control strategy, and that the system can adapt to new situations by learning about its effects on system dynamics.

Huang, Chien Y.↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

Dynamic Multiplexed Control and Modeling of Optogenetic Systems Using the High-Throughput Optogenetic Platform, Lustro

The ability to control cellular processes using optogenetics is inducer-limited, with most optogenetic systems responding to blue light. To address this limitation, we leverage an integrated framework combining Lustro, a powerful high-throughput optogenetics platform, and machine learning tools to enable multiplexed control over blue light-sensitive optogenetic systems. Specifically, we identify light induction conditions for sequential activation as well as preferential activation and switching between pairs of light-sensitive split transcription factors in the budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We use the high-throughput data generated from Lustro to build a Bayesian optimization framework that incorporates data-driven learning, uncertainty quantification, and experimental design to enable the prediction of system behavior and the identification of optimal conditions for multiplexed control. This work lays the foundation for designing more advanced synthetic biological circuits incorporating optogenetics, where multiple circuit components can be controlled using designer light induction programs, with broad implications for biotechnology and bioengineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamical Inference and 3D Imaging of Magnetized Dusty Plasmas

This is the final technical report for this DOE award. The motion of dust particles in a laboratory plasma has been studied for nearly 30 years and has led to the discovery of strongly-coupled crystalline structures and nonequilibrium dynamics governed by gravitational, hydrodynamic, and electrostatic forces. Many of the inter-particle forces are complex; they can be non-reciprocal, and non-additive. Deciphering the mélange of particle interactions has been a challenging task, nevertheless, magnetized dusty plasmas remains an open challenge with limited understanding. With applications ranging from magnetically-confined plasmas for fusion to near-surface planetary environments, this research field is ripe for well-controlled, laboratory experiments and new theoretical tools. In collaboration with the MDPX experiment at Auburn University, this proposal aims to tease apart both the known and unknown forces that drive dusty plasmas in magnetized environments using high-resolution, three-dimensional imaging and particle tracking coupled with modern dynamical inference and machine learning techniques.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Robust Molecular Predictive Methods for Novel Polymer Discovery and Applications

Polymeric materials are ubiquitous in modern society and they play an instrumental role in almost all industries, undoubtedly including the energy and environment sectors. Increased demand of energy and awareness to sustainability both necessitates the development of novel polymers with enhanced properties. Unfortunately, their structural and behavioral complexity render such discovery challenging and impeded. To address this problem, scientists are developing various computational modeling techniques and leveraging their power to depict the relationship between structural characteristics of polymers and their properties (such as rheological behaviors), and use such prediction to guide the design and syntheses of novel polymeric materials with enhanced performances. Unfortunately, predicting the relationships between polymer structure and composition with rheological properties via atomistic modeling is still a major challenge because of the extended time and length scales involved. Studying dynamic shear viscosity and linear viscoelasticity using molecular models requires capabilities that have been elusive, including representation of large molecular weight chains with an effective internal scale capable of describing entanglement, shear-rates that are in the s-1 scale with accurate quantitative stresses, and chemically-realistic combinations of both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Motivated by these unmet challenges, the overall technical objective of this DOE-STTR Phase II project is to develop robust molecular predictive methods for advanced polymer discovery and applications and especially for designing and demonstrating the “smart” polymer-based waterflooding enhanced oil recovery (EOR) process. In particular, we apply state-of-the-art molecular modeling methods developed by our academic partner, Materials Stimulation Center (MSC) at California Institute of Technology (Caltech), to facilitate and accelerate the experimental discovery processes. During the Phase I of this project, we had focused on development and demonstration of the molecular modeling methods to describe rheological properties of non-Newtonian polymer fluids, and to improve our fundamental understandings of shear-thickening mechanism and kinetics. In Phase II, we further apply the theoretical models to guide our experimental programs to improve our design of smart rheology modifier (SRM) polymers and their optimization for EOR. Specifically, we have three objectives in the Phase II study: (1) to further improve out computational modeling methods, coupling with the advanced machine learning algorithms; (2) to develop cost-effective and efficient SRM-flooding process suitable for EOR applications under typical reservoir conditions; and (3) to further explore the application of our molecular predictive models for innovative material discovery in other industrial applications. The recent development of our multiscale predictive framework allows the successful prediction of rheological properties from the chemical structure for polymers of experimentally relevant molecular weights, and provides an in-silico machine learning engine for screening novel compositions and structures with optimized non-Newtonian response, required for both shear-thinning and shear-thickening applications. Our framework provides: (1) procedures and tools for systematic coarsening from atomistic models and reverse mapping of coarse-grain models to atomistic, (2) unique ab initio methods to characterize the atomistic origin of colloidal and interfacial interactions and phenomena, (3) systematic structure and composition builders based on practical descriptors that drive rheological changes in polymer melts and diluted polymer mixtures, (4) a rheological properties engine capable of predicting viscosity in the zero-shear limit and under realistic dynamic conditions (for shear-rates commensurate with experiments) for large heterogeneous systems, (5) coarse-grain force fields with improved non-bond descriptions based on accurate quantum mechanics, (6) an in-silico screening machine learning engine that feeds from the systematic model builders to cover the descriptors search space, computes the rheological properties from converged trajectories spanning sub-milliseconds and ranks them for each structure/composition using an automated viscosity-vs-shear rate fitness function that can be tuned for shear-thickening, shear-thinning and other rheological responses.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Integrated Research Infrastructure Architecture Blueprint Activity (Final Report 2023)

The complexity of scientific pursuits is increasing rapidly with aspects that require dynamic integration of experiment, observation, theory, modeling, simulation, visualization, machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), and analysis. Research projects across the Department of Energy (DOE) are increasingly data and compute intensive. Innovative research teams are accelerating the pace of discovery by using high-performance computational and data tools in their research workflows and leveraging multiple research infrastructures. Additionally, several recent high-level U.S. government reports underscore the necessity of a new advanced computing ecosystem for international competitiveness and national security. International competitors are moving forward with major research infrastructure integration efforts that seek to capture a competitive advantage in the global innovation race. Owing to its unparalleled constellation of world-class experimental and observational facilities and high-performance and extreme-scale computational, data, and networking infrastructure, DOE is positioned to be a global leader in this new era of integrated science. However, this new integration paradigm will demand continuing evolution to ensure the U.S. remains a global leader in research and innovation. The DOE Office of Science (SC) has seized on the strategic importance of integration and has adopted a vision for Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI): To empower researchers to meld DOE’s world-class research tools, infrastructure, and user facilities seamlessly and securely in novel ways to radically accelerate discovery and innovation. To respond to the evolving computational requirements of research and the competitive international innovation landscape, experimental facilities could be connected with high performance computing resources for near real-time analysis, and resources should be provided for merging enormous and diverse data for AI/ML techniques and analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Programming the Navier-Stokes computer: An abstract machine model and a visual editor

The Navier-Stokes computer is a parallel computer designed to solve Computational Fluid Dynamics problems. Each processor contains several floating point units which can be configured under program control to implement a vector pipeline with several inputs and outputs. Since the development of an effective compiler for this computer appears to be very difficult, machine level programming seems necessary and support tools for this process have been studied. These support tools are organized into a graphical program editor. A programming process is described by which appropriate computations may be efficiently implemented on the Navier-Stokes computer. The graphical editor would support this programming process, verifying various programmer choices for correctness and deducing values such as pipeline delays and network configurations. Step by step details are provided and demonstrated with two example programs.

Middleton, David↗

Validation of CFD/Heat Transfer Software for Turbine Blade Analysis

I am an intern in the Turbine Branch of the Turbomachinery and Propulsion Systems Division. The division is primarily concerned with experimental and computational methods of calculating heat transfer effects of turbine blades during operation in jet engines and land-based power systems. These include modeling flow in internal cooling passages and film cooling, as well as calculating heat flux and peak temperatures to ensure safe and efficient operation. The branch is research-oriented, emphasizing the development of tools that may be used by gas turbine designers in industry. The branch has been developing a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and heat transfer code called GlennHT to achieve the computational end of this analysis. The code was originally written in FORTRAN 77 and run on Silicon Graphics machines. However the code has been rewritten and compiled in FORTRAN 90 to take advantage of more modem computer memory systems. In addition the branch has made a switch in system architectures from SGI's to Linux PC's. The newly modified code therefore needs to be tested and validated. This is the primary goal of my internship. To validate the GlennHT code, it must be run using benchmark fluid mechanics and heat transfer test cases, for which there are either analytical solutions or widely accepted experimental data. From the solutions generated by the code, comparisons can be made to the correct solutions to establish the accuracy of the code. To design and create these test cases, there are many steps and programs that must be used. Before a test case can be run, pre-processing steps must be accomplished. These include generating a grid to describe the geometry, using a software package called GridPro. Also various files required by the GlennHT code must be created including a boundary condition file, a file for multi-processor computing, and a file to describe problem and algorithm parameters. A good deal of this internship will be to become familiar with these programs and the structure of the GlennHT code. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Kiefer, Walter D.↗

spot_bt_ros v.0.1.0

SAND2024-08478O The spot_bt_ros tool allows users to easily construct complex autonomous behaviors for Boston Dynamic's Spot robot without having to overly rely on the Spot software development kit (SDK). This package specifically allows a user to run the Robot Operating System 2 alongside the SDK. Using a form-of-state machine called a "behavior tree,” the software develops different "leaves" or actions that the robot undergoes. Attaching multiple actions in sequence creates a "branch" and several of these make up the "tree." Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Kakish, Zahi↗

Structural Mechanics and Dynamics Branch

The 2002 annual report of the Structural Mechanics and Dynamics Branch reflects the majority of the work performed by the branch staff during the 2002 calendar year. Its purpose is to give a brief review of the branch s technical accomplishments. The Structural Mechanics and Dynamics Branch develops innovative computational tools, benchmark experimental data, and solutions to long-term barrier problems in the areas of propulsion aeroelasticity, active and passive damping, engine vibration control, rotor dynamics, magnetic suspension, structural mechanics, probabilistics, smart structures, engine system dynamics, and engine containment. Furthermore, the branch is developing a compact, nonpolluting, bearingless electric machine with electric power supplied by fuel cells for future "more electric" aircraft. An ultra-high-power-density machine that can generate projected power densities of 50 hp/lb or more, in comparison to conventional electric machines, which generate usually 0.2 hp/lb, is under development for application to electric drives for propulsive fans or propellers. In the future, propulsion and power systems will need to be lighter, to operate at higher temperatures, and to be more reliable in order to achieve higher performance and economic viability. The Structural Mechanics and Dynamics Branch is working to achieve these complex, challenging goals.

Stefko, George↗

Science Goal Monitor: Science Goal Driven Automation for NASA Missions

Infusion of automation technologies into NASA s future missions will be essential because of the need to: (1) effectively handle an exponentially increasing volume of scientific data, (2) successfully meet dynamic, opportunistic scientific goals and objectives, and (3) substantially reduce mission operations staff and costs. While much effort has gone into automating routine spacecraft operations to reduce human workload and hence costs, applying intelligent automation to the science side, i.e., science data acquisition, data analysis and reactions to that data analysis in a timely and still scientifically valid manner, has been relatively under-emphasized. In order to introduce science driven automation in missions, we must be able to: capture and interpret the science goals of observing programs, represent those goals in machine interpretable language; and allow spacecrafts onboard systems to autonomously react to the scientist's goals. In short, we must teach our platforms to dynamically understand, recognize, and react to the scientists goals. The Science Goal Monitor (SGM) project at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is a prototype software tool being developed to determine the best strategies for implementing science goal driven automation in missions. The tools being developed in SGM improve the ability to monitor and react to the changing status of scientific events. The SGM system enables scientists to specify what to look for and how to react in descriptive rather than technical terms. The system monitors streams of science data to identify occurrences of key events previously specified by the scientist. When an event occurs, the system autonomously coordinates the execution of the scientist s desired reactions. Through SGM, we will improve om understanding about the capabilities needed onboard for success, develop metrics to understand the potential increase in science returns, and develop an operational prototype so that the perceived risks associated with increased use of automation can be reduced.

Koratkar, Anuradha↗

Airfoil Computational Fluid Dynamics - 2k shapes, 25 AoA's, 3 Re numbers

This dataset contains aerodynamic quantities - including flow field values (momentum, energy, and vorticity) and summary values (coefficients of lift, drag, and momentum) - for 1,830 airfoil shapes computed using the HAM2D CFD (computational fluid dynamics) model. The airfoil shapes were designed using the separable shape tensor parameterization that encodes two-dimensional shapes as elements of the Grassmann manifold. This data-driven approach learns two independent spaces of parameter from a collection of sample airfoils. The first captures large-scale, linear perturbations, and the second defines small-scale, higher-order perturbations. For this dataset, we used the G2Aero database of over 19,000 airfoil shapes to learn a parameter space that captured a wide array of shape characteristics. We sampled airfoil designs over both parameter spaces to explore the full range of possible shape variations. The aerodynamic quantities for the generated airfoil were obtained using the HAM2D code, which is a finite-volume Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver. We employ a fifth-order WENO scheme for spatial reconstruction with Roe's flux difference scheme for inviscid flux and second-order central differencing for viscous flux. A preconditioned GMRES method is applied for implicit integration. The Spalart-Allmaras 1-eq turbulence model is used for the turbulence closure, and the Medida-Baeder 2-eq transition model is applied to account for the effects of laminar turbulent transition. The airfoil grid is generated with a total of 400 points on the airfoil surface, the initial wall-normal spacing of y+ = 1, and an outer boundary located at 300 chord lengths away from the wall. The CFD simulations are performed at a freestream Mach number of 0.1, for or three different Reynolds' numbers (3M, 6M, and 9M), and for 25 angles of attack from -4 deg. to 20 deg. with 1 degree increments. Across all these various parameters, this dataset includes the results from over 250,000 CFD simulations. The simulations were performed using the Bridges-2 system at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center in February 2023 as part of the INTEGRATE project funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, in the U.S. Department of Energy. The data was collected, reformatted, and preprocessed for this OEDI submission in July 2023 under the Foundational AI for Wind Energy project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. This dataset is intended to serve as a benchmark against which new artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) tools may be tested. Baseline AI/ML methods for analyzing this dataset have been implemented, and a link to their repository containing those models has been provided. The .h5 data file structure can be found in the GitHub Repository resource under explore_airfoil_2k_data.ipynb.

2k↗

Airfoil Computational Fluid Dynamics - 9k shapes, 2 AoA's

This dataset contains aerodynamic quantities - including flow field values (momentum, energy, and vorticity) and summary values (coefficients of lift, drag, and momentum) - for 8,996 airfoil shapes, computed using the HAM2D CFD (computational fluid dynamics) model. The airfoil shapes were designed using the separable shape tensor parameterization that encodes two-dimensional shapes as elements of the Grassmann manifold. This data-driven approach learns two independent spaces of parameter from a collection of sample airfoils. The first captures large-scale, linear perturbations, and the second defines small-scale, higher-order perturbations. For this data, we used the G2Aero database of over 19,000 airfoil shapes to learn a parameter space that captured a wide array of shape characteristics. We fixed the linear deformations to be the mean over the database and sampled new shapes over a four-dimensional parameter space of higher-order perturbation. This sampling approaches allows for isolated analysis of non-linear airfoil shape deformations while holding other aspects (e.g., airfoil thickness) approximately constant. The aerodynamic quantities for the generated airfoil were obtained using the HAM2D code, which is a finite-volume Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver. We employ a fifth-order WENO scheme for spatial reconstruction with Roe's flux difference scheme for inviscid flux and second-order central differencing for viscous flux. A preconditioned GMRES method is applied for implicit integration. The Spalart-Allmaras 1-eq turbulence model is used for the turbulence closure, and the Medida-Baeder 2-eq transition model is applied to account for the effects of laminar turbulent transition. The airfoil grid is generated with a total of 400 points on the airfoil surface, the initial wall-normal spacing of y+ = 1, and an outer boundary located at 300 chord lengths away from the wall. The CFD simulations are performed at a freestream Mach number of 0.1, Reynolds number of 9M, and at two angles of attack, 4 deg. and 12 deg. The simulations were performed using the Bridges-2 system at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center in February 2023 as part of the INTEGRATE project funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy in the U.S. Department of Energy. The data was collected, reformatted, and preprocessed for this OEDI submission in July 2023 under the Foundational AI for Wind Energy project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. This dataset is intended to serve as a benchmark against which new artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) tools may be tested. Baseline AI/ML methods for analyzing this dataset have been implemented, and a link to their repository containing those models has been provided. The .h5 data file structure can be found in the GitHub Repository resource under explore_airfoil_9k_data.ipynb.

9k↗

Harnessing the Power of Machine Learning and Omics to Identify Environmental Regulation on Microbial Functional Composition for Soil C, N, and P Cycling

Microbial enzyme-mediated soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition regulates many key ecosystem functions, such as elemental cycling, soil carbon sequestration, and soil fertility. However, representing microbial processes in Earth system models (ESMs) remains challenging due to a limited understanding of the spatial patterns of diverse microbial functions responsible for soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycling as well as the underlying mechanisms regulating their relative abundances across various environments. We collected published metagenomics data across the continental US (CONUS) to identify hundreds of microbial genes involved in soil C, N, and P cycling and grouped them into eight enzyme functional classes (EFCs). Each EFC represented a group of gene-encoded potential enzymes that decompose similar soil compounds. By integrating the abundances of omics-informed EFCs with the corresponding environmental information, we trained a machine learning (ML) model to identify key edaphic, climate, and vegetation factors regulating the abundances of each EFC. Quantitative analysis of effects of these factors revealed that the spatial distribution of eight EFCs for soil C, N, and P cycling across CONUS reflected potential resource optimization strategies of microbial communities under nutrient limitation, preferential organic-mineral associations, and climatological stresses. This insight, together with the interpreted ML tool and the CONUS-level benchmark for EFCs abundances, paves the way for parameterizing environmental-regulated microbial functional dynamics in biogeochemical models.

machine learning↗

AI ATAC 1: An Evaluation of Prominent Commercial Malware Detectors

This work presents an evaluation of six prominent commercial endpoint malware detectors, a network malware detector, and a file-conviction algorithm from a cyber technology vendor. The evaluation was administered as the first of the Artificial I ntelligence Applications t o Autonomous Cybersecurity (AI ATAC) prize challenges, funded by / completed in service of the US Navy. The experiment employed 100K files (50/50% benign/malicious) with a stratified distribution of file types, including ~1K zero-day program executables (increasing experiment size two orders of magnitude over previous work). We present an evaluation process of delivering a file to a fresh virtual machine donning the detection technology, waiting 90s to allow static detection, then executing the file and waiting another period for dynamic detection; this allows greater fidelity in the observational data than previous experiments, in particular, resource and time-to-detection statistics. To execute all 800K trials (100K files × 8 tools), a software framework is designed to choreograph the experiment into an automated, time-synced, and reproducible workflow with substantial parallelization. Software with base classes for this framework are provided. A cost-benefit model was configured to integrate the tools’ detection statistics into a comparable quantity by simulating costs of use. This provides a ranking methodology for cyber competitions and a lens for reasoning about the varied statistical results. The results provide insights on state of commercial malware detection.

Bridges, Robert↗

Advanced Computing, Data Science, and Artificial Intelligence Research Opportunities for Energy-Focused Transportation Science

The Energy Efficient Mobility Systems (EEMS) technology landscape is complex and rapidly evolving, which provides both tremendous opportunities and formidable challenges. Significant alterations to the mobility landscape are underway due to the advent of vehicle and infrastructure connectivity, autonomous driving, and rapid passenger- and freight-vehicle electrification. Advanced computing will play an increasingly important role in enabling the EEMS program to understand and identify the most important levers to improve the energy productivity of future integrated mobility systems. It is also driving new approaches to mobility and the research to unlock an affordable, efficient, safe, and accessible transportation future. Driving much of this change is the collection, analysis, and strategic use of massive amounts of diverse, complex data from infrastructure and vehicles with on-board sensors and data storage and transmission capabilities. Diverse and representative data are key to implementing approaches to maximize mobility energy productivity. While high-fidelity modeling of integrated transportation networks has strengthened our understanding of dynamic movement and behavior patterns, existing tools must be expanded beyond their current focus. This work necessitates data infrastructure investments (e.g., secure-streaming data platforms driven by ubiquitous sensors and video analytics) as well as investments in critical capabilities for large-scale automated analysis and organization using modern machine learning, statistics, and artificial intelligence. Other chief needs include agile, large-scale storage that can be quickly searched and queried for relevant data to support validation and model development, data-sharing agreements, and formatting standards for key data types. The future of public transit must be explored in greater detail, research must inform design, and opportunities must be identified for improving the mobility productivity of public transit in both urban and rural America.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

What Makes You Hold on to That Old Car? Joint Insights From Machine Learning and Multinomial Logit on Vehicle-Level Transaction Decisions

What makes you hold on to that old car? While the vast majority of household vehicles are still powered by conventional internal combustion engines, the progress of adopting emerging vehicle technologies will critically depend on how soon the existing vehicles are transacted out of the household fleet. Leveraging a nationally representative longitudinal data set, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study examines how household decisions to dispose of or replace a given vehicle are: 1) influenced by the vehicle’s attributes, 2) mediated by households’ concurrent socio-demographic and economic attributes, and 3) triggered by key life cycle events. Coupled with a newly developed machine learning interpretation tool, TreeExplainer, we demonstrate an innovative use of machine learning models to augment traditional logit modeling to both generate behavioral insights and improve model performance. We find the two gradient-boosting-based methods, CatBoost and LightGBM, are the best performing machine learning models for this problem. The multinomial logistic model can achieve similar performance levels after its model specification is informed by TreeExplainer. Both machine learning and multinomial logit models suggest that while older vehicles are more likely to be disposed of or replaced than newer ones, such probability decreases as the vehicles serve the family longer. Pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles are less likely to be disposed of or replaced than cars, and leased vehicles are more likely to be transacted than owned vehicles. We find that married families, families with higher education levels, homeowners, and older families tend to keep their vehicles longer. Life events such as childbirth, residential relocation, and change of household composition and income are found to increase vehicle disposal and/or replacement. We provide additional insights on the timing of vehicle replacement or disposal, in particular, the presence of children and childbirth events are more strongly associated with vehicle replacement among younger parents.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Dynamical coupled-channel models for hadron dynamics

Dynamical coupled-channel (DCC) approaches parametrize the interactions and dynamics of two and more hadrons and their response to different electroweak probes. The inclusion of unitarity, three-body channels, and other properties from scattering theory allows for a reliable extraction of resonance spectra and their properties from data. Here, we review the formalism and application of the ANL-Osaka, the Juelich-Bonn-Washington, and other DCC approaches in the context of light baryon resonances from meson, (virtual) photon, and neutrino-induced reactions, as well as production reactions, strange baryons, light mesons, heavy meson systems, exotics, and baryon-baryon interactions. Finally, we also provide a connection of the formalism to study finite-volume spectra obtained in Lattice QCD, and review applications involving modern statistical and machine learning tools.

Amplitude analysis↗