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At least 181 records · Page 10

A global low order spectral model designed for climate sensitivity studies

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate is developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only with moist convective adjustment between the two layers. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a lower boundary vertical velocity. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. On land and sea ice surfaces a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. Over the oceans the sea surface temperatures are prescribed from the climatological average of January. The model is integrated to simulate the January climate.

Hanna, A. F.↗

The Role of Background Meridional Moisture Gradient on the Propagation of the MJO over the Maritime Continent

This study investigates the role of the background meridional moisture gradient (MMG) on the propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC) region. It is found that the interannual variability of the seasonal mean MMG over the southern MC area is associated with the meridional expansion and contraction of the moist area in the vicinity of the MC. Sea surface temperature anomalies associated with relatively high and low seasonal mean MMG exhibit patterns that resemble those of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Therefore, by contrasting the years with anomalously low and high MMG, we show that MJO propagation through the MC is enhanced (suppressed) in years with higher (lower) seasonal mean MMG, although the effect is less robust when MMG anomalies are weak. Column-integrated moisture budget analysis further shows that sufficiently large MMG anomalies affect MJO activity by modulating the meridional advection of the mean moisture via MJO wind anomalies. Our results suggest that the background moisture distribution has a strong control over the propagation characteristics of the MJO in the MC region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Application of Jason-Measurements to Estimate the Global Near Surface Ocean Circulation for Climate Research

The scientific objective of this research program were to utilize drifter and satellite sea level data for the determination of time mean and time variable surface currents of the global ocean. To accomplish these tasks has required the processing of drifter data to include a wide variety of different configurations of drifters into a uniform format and to process the along track satellite altimeter data for computing the geostrophic current components normal to the track. These tasks were accomplished, which resulted in an increase of drifter data by about 40% and the development of new algorithms for obtaining satellite derived geostrophic velocity data that was consistent with the drifter observations of geostrophic time-variable currents. The methodologies and the research results using these methodologies were reported in the publications listed in this paper.

Niiler, Pearn P.↗

The seasonal cycle of snow cover, sea ice and surface albedo

The paper examines satellite data used to construct mean snow cover caps for the Northern Hemisphere. The zonally averaged snow cover from these maps is used to calculate the seasonal cycle of zonally averaged surface albedo. The effects of meltwater on the surface, solar zenith angle, and cloudiness are parameterized and included in the calculations of snow and ice albedo. The data allows a calculation of surface albedo for any land or ocean 10 deg latitude band as a function of surface temperature ice and snow cover; the correct determination of the ice boundary is more important than the snow boundary for accurately simulating the ice and snow albedo feedback.

Robock, A.↗

Radar pulse shape versus ocean wave height

The radar height distribution of the vertical ocean surface structure was measured with a 1 ns radar system from a tower platform. It is shown that the reflecting properties of the ocean biases the mean sea level by about 5% of the significant wave height, and that the radar measured water wave height is reduced by about 6% of the significant wave height. For SWH up to 2 m, it can be assumed that the shape of the distribution is normal and that the mean sea level and water wave height of the observed ocean surface can be directly obtained from the convolved pulse, that is obtained from a high flying altimeter, with accuracies of a few centimeters. Measurements of higher sea states and utilization of an aircraft platform for pulse width limited observations are needed to confirm these preliminary results.

Shapiro, A.↗

Ocean and Atmospheric Profiling Lidar Observations and Its Link to Ocean Carbon Cycle

This study introduces space-based ocean and atmospheric profiling lidar for improving modeling and understanding of ocean carbon cycle. Unique measurements from space-based profiling lidars include (1) the global ocean surface mean square slope measurements for improving air-sea turbulence exchange estimates; (2) the backscatter and beam attenuation measurements for improving the global estimate of partial pressure of CO2 of the ocean with the reduction of uncertainties in primary productivity estimates. Global statistics of CALIOP integrated ocean subsurface backscatter measurements of coastal waters will be presented. The study will also assess the impact of CALIOP on the uncertainty reduction of primary productivity and the improvement of CO2 partial pressure estimates. Ocean surface roughness statistics, its applications in air-sea interaction and its comparisons with other measurements will also be presented

Hu, Yongxiang↗

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

T B Richardson↗

Seasonal Correlations of SST, Water Vapor, and Convective Activity in Tropical Oceans: A New Hyperspectral Data Set for Climate Model Testing

The analysis of the response of the Earth Climate System to the seasonal changes of solar forcing in the tropical oceans using four years of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data between 2002 and 2006 gives new insight into amplitude and phase relationships between surface and tropospheric temperatures, humidity, and convective activity. The intensity of the convective activity is measured by counting deep convective clouds. The peaks of convective activity, temperature in the mid-troposphere, and water vapor in the 0 - 30 N and 0 - 30 S tropical ocean zonal means occur about two months after solstice, all leading the peak of the sea surface temperature by several weeks. Phase is key to the evaluation of feedback. The evaluation of climate models in terms of zonal and annual means and annual mean deviations from zonal means can now be supplemented by evaluating the phase of key atmospheric and surface parameters relative to solstice. The ability of climate models to reproduce the statistical flavor of the observed amplitudes and relative phases for broad zonal means should lead to increased confidence in the realism of their water vapor and cloud feedback algorithms. AIRS and AMSU were launched into a 705 km altitude polar sun-synchronous orbit on the EOS Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002, and have been in routine data gathering mode since September 2002.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder↗

Seasonal Correlations of SST, Water Vapor, and Convective Activity in Tropical Oceans: A New Hyperspectral Data Set for Climate Model Testing

The analysis of the response of the Earth Climate System to the seasonal changes of solar forcing in the tropical oceans using four years of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data between 2002 and 2006 gives new insight into amplitude and phase relationships between surface and tropospheric temperatures, humidity, and convective activity. The intensity of the convective activity is measured by counting deep convective clouds. The peaks of convective activity, temperature in the mid-troposphere, and water vapor in the 0-30 N and 0-30 S tropical ocean zonal means occur about two months after solstice, all leading the peak of the sea surface temperature by several weeks. Phase is key to the evaluation of feedback. The evaluation of climate models in terms of zonal and annual means and annual mean deviations from zonal means can now be supplemented by evaluating the phase of key atmospheric and surface parameters relative to solstice. The ability of climate models to reproduce the statistical flavor of the observed amplitudes and relative phases for broad zonal means should lead to increased confidence in the realism of their water vapor and cloud feedback algorithms. AIRS and AMSU were launched into a 705 km altitude polar sun-synchronous orbit on the EOS Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002, and have been in routine data gathering mode since September 2002.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)↗

Accuracy assessment of the large-scale dynamic ocean topography from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

The quality of TOPEX/POSEIDON determinations of the global scale dynamic ocean topography have been assessed by determining mean topography solutions for successive 10-day repeat cycles and by examining the temporal changes in the sea surface topography to identify known features. The assessment is based on the analysis of TOPEX altimeter data cycles 1 through 36. Important errors in the tide model used to correct the altimeter data have been identified. The errors were reduced significantly by use of a new tide model derived with the TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. Maps of the global 1-year mean topography, produced using four of the most accurate of the marine geoid, show that the largest error in the dynamic ocean topography show expected features, such as the known annual hemispherical sea surface rise and fall and the seasonal variability due to monsoon influence in the Indian Ocean. Changes in the sequence of 10-day topography maps show the development and propagation of an equatorial Kelvin wave in the Pacific beginning in December 1992 with a propagation velocity of approximately 3 m/s. The observations are consistent with observed changes in the equatorial trade winds, and with tide gauge and other in situ observations of the strengthening of the El Nino. Comparison of TOPEX-determine sea surface height at points near oceanic tide gauges shows agreement at the 4 cm root-mean-square (RMS) level over the tropical Pacific. The results show that the TOPEX altimeter data set can be used to map the ocean surface with a temporal resolution of 10 days and an accuracy which is insonsistent with traditional in situ methods for the determination of sea level variations.

Tapley, B. D.↗

NOAA's oceanography studies under the Earth Resources Survey Program

Some results are presented of Earth Resources Survey Program studies conducted on: (1) Defining and developing methods of suppressing system noise and cloud contamination in satellite measurements of infrared window radiation. (2) Relating sea surface temperature patterns in the Gulf Stream and Gulf of Mexico to associated thermal front structure with aid of infrared data from Nimbus or ITOS. (3) Testing the feasibility of mapping sea surface roughness and low level wind speed over tropical oceans by means of ATS imagery in sun glitter zones. (4) Microwave radiometer measurements from aircraft and their usefulness and limitations for all-weather mapping of surface roughness, sea ice conditions, and possible surface temperature. (5) Evaluation of scanning radiometer data from ITOS for purposes of mapping snow and ice conditions.

Mcclain, E. P.↗

A Process Model for ITCZ Narrowing under Warming Highlights Clear-Sky Water Vapor Feedbacks and Gross Moist Stability Changes in AMIP Models

Tropical areas with mean upward motion—and as such the zonal-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)—are projected to contract under global warming. To understand this process, a simple model based on dry static energy and moisture equations is introduced for zonally symmetric overturning driven by sea surface temperature (SST). Processes governing ascent area fraction and zonal mean precipitation are examined for insight into Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Bulk parameters governing radiative feedbacks and moist static energy transport in the simple model are estimated from the AMIP ensemble. Uniform warming in the simple model produces ascent area contraction and precipitation intensification—similar to observations and climate models. Contributing effects include stronger water vapor radiative feedbacks, weaker cloud-radiative feedbacks, stronger convection-circulation feedbacks, and greater poleward moisture export. The simple model identifies parameters consequential for the inter-AMIP-model spread; an ensemble generated by perturbing parameters governing shortwave water vapor feedbacks and gross moist stability changes under warming tracks inter-AMIP-model variations with a correlation coefficient ~0.46. Here, the simple model also predicts the multimodel mean changes in tropical ascent area and precipitation with reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the simple model reproduces relationships among ascent area precipitation, ascent strength, and ascent area fraction observed in AMIP models. A substantial portion of the inter-AMIP-model spread is traced to the spread in how moist static energy and vertical velocity profiles change under warming, which in turn impact the gross moist stability in deep convective regions—highlighting the need for observational constraints on these quantities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote sensing of sea state by laser altimeters

The reflection of short laser pulses from the ocean surface was analyzed based on the specular point theory of scattering. The expressions for the averaged received signal, shot noise and speckle induced noise were derived for a direct detection system. It is found that the reflected laser pulses have an average shape closely related to the probability density function associated with the surface profile. This result is applied to estimate the mean sea level and significant wave height from the receiver output of the laser altimeter.

Tsai, B.↗

Short‐Term Hourly Weather Forecasting Using PredRNN With Image Preprocessing

Global weather forecast models are vital tools with numerous applications, including public safety, agriculture, and transportation. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) have shown the potential to enhance weather forecasting accuracy and speed. In this study, we developed a short-term hourly weather forecast framework with a wavelet transform function for data preprocessing and a spatiotemporal DL model, PredRNN, for predicting five surface atmospheric variables, including wind speed and direction, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature, and precipitation. The framework demonstrated promising results. It produces global forecasts at 0.25° (∼25 km) with a 1-day lead time RMSE of 1.8 m/s for wind components, 180 Pa for MSLP, and 1.8 K for temperature. Although our model does not surpass state-of-the-art AI weather forecast models across all metrics, it outperforms these models in precipitation forecasting and wind prediction at short lead times and achieves comparable accuracy for MSLP. Its native hourly forecasting capability, together with training on widely accessible GPU hardware, contributes meaningfully to the advancement of accessible DL weather forecasting methods. Our work highlights the importance of integrating temporal components and data transformation techniques to improve the predictability and accuracy of weather forecasts.

Tran, Hoang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗

Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Huge heat anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean in recent years are not yet explained. Strong characteristic patterns in temperatures for upper layers of the ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 in the presence of global warming from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we show that the deep tropics are warming, although sharply modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating in the extratropics near 40°N and 40°–45°S but little heating near 20°N and 25°–30°S. The heating is most clearly manifested in zonal-mean ocean heat content and is evident in sea surface temperatures. The strongest heating is in the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects are small. Estimates are made of the contributions to heating of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric energy transports, surface fluxes of energy, and redistribution of energy by surface winds and ocean currents. The patterns of change are not directly related to TOA radiation but are evident in net surface energy fluxes and inferred ocean heat transports, underscoring their coupled origin. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in ocean jet streams and storm tracks are reflected in surface wind-driven ocean Ekman transports. As well as human-induced climate change, internal natural variability is likely in play. Hence, the atmosphere and ocean currents are systematically redistributing heat from global warming, profoundly affecting local climates. Significance Statement As the climate changes, it has been difficult to discern meaningful patterns. Distinctive patterns of change have occurred in the ocean when examined as zonal averages around latitude bands. Most excess heat from global warming resides in the ocean and, since 2005, has become focused into bands near 40°N and 40°S, with little net warming in the subtropics. The strongest warming is in the Southern Hemisphere, although sea surface temperatures have increased more in the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in the jet stream and storm tracks are primarily responsible along with corresponding changes in ocean currents. These changes are linked through surface exchanges of energy via heat, moisture, and wind stress.

Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospher↗

Sea Surface Temperature and Wind-Generated Current Variations in the Arabian Sea During 1992 and 1993

Monthly mean wind-generated Ekman and Sverdup transports and the vertical transport into and out of the Ekman layer were computed from satellite scatterometer estimates of 10-m height wind speed components recorded from April 1992 to December 1993...This brief report describes a search for correspondence between variations of monthly mean SST and wind-driven currents in the Arabian Sea during April 1992 and December 1993.

north indian ocean clouds wind mixing heat advecti↗

The Modulation of Gulf Stream Influence on the Troposphere by the Eddy-Driven Jet

This study suggests that the Gulf Stream influence on the wintertime North Atlantic troposphere is most pronounced when the eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is farthest south and better collocated with the Gulf Stream. Using the reanalysis dataset NCEP-CFSR for December–February 1979–2009, the daily EDJ latitude is separated into three regimes (northern, central, and southern). It is found that the average trajectory of atmospheric fronts covaries with EDJ latitude. In the southern EDJ regime (~19% of the time), the frequency of near-surface atmospheric fronts that pass across the Gulf Stream is maximized. Analysis suggests that this leads to significant strengthening in near-surface atmospheric frontal convergence resulting from strong air–sea sensible heat flux gradients (due to strong temperature gradients in the atmosphere and ocean). In recent studies, it was shown that the pronounced band of time-mean near-surface wind convergence across the Gulf Stream is set by atmospheric fronts. Here, it is shown that an even smaller subset of atmospheric fronts—those associated with a southern EDJ—primarily sets the time mean, due to enhanced Gulf Stream air–sea interaction. Furthermore, statistically significant anomalies in vertical velocity extending well above the boundary layer are identified in association with changes in EDJ latitude. These anomalies are particularly strong for a southern EDJ and are spatially consistent with increases in near-surface atmospheric frontal convergence over the Gulf Stream. These results imply that much of the Gulf Stream influence on the time-mean atmosphere is modulated on synoptic time scales, and enhanced when the EDJ is farthest south.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radar altimeter mean return wave forms from near-normal-incidence ocean surface scattering

For a nearly Gaussian transmitted pulse shape scattered from a nearly Gaussian distributed sea surface, a small argument series expansion of one term lead to a several term power series expression for the mean return waveform. Specific expressions are given for the first four terms. These results, which require less computer time than numerical convolution, are useful for data analysis from current or past radar altimeters and for design studies of future systems. Several representative results are presented for an idealized Seasat-1 radar altimeter.

Hayne, G. S.↗