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DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rethinking 𝛼−RuCl 3 : Parameters, models, and phase diagram

RuCl 3 was likely the first ever deliberately synthesized ruthenium compound, following the discovery of the 44 Ru element in 1844. For a long time it was known as an oxidation catalyst, with its physical properties being discrepant and confusing, until a decade ago when its allotropic form 𝛼−RuCl 3 rose to exceptional prominence. This “rediscovery” of 𝛼−RuCl 3 has not only reshaped the hunt for a material manifestation of the Kitaev spin liquid, but it has opened the floodgates of theoretical and experimental research in the many unusual phases and excitations that the anisotropic-exchange magnets as a class of compounds have to offer. Given its importance for the field of Kitaev materials, it is astonishing that the low-energy spin model that describes this compound and its possible proximity to the much-desired spin-liquid state is still a subject of significant debate ten years later. In the present study, we argue that the existing key phenomenological observations put strong natural constraints on the effective microscopic spin model of 𝛼−RuCl 3 , and specifically on its spin-orbit-induced anisotropic-exchange parameters that are responsible for the nontrivial physical properties of this material. These constraints allow one to focus on the relevant region of the multidimensional phase diagram of the 𝛼−RuCl 3 model, suggest an intuitive description of it via a different parametrization of the exchange matrix, offer a unifying view on the earlier assessments of its parameters, and bring closer together several approaches to the derivation of anisotropic-exchange models. We explore extended phase diagrams relevant to the 𝛼−RuCl 3 parameter space using quasiclassical, Luttinger-Tisza, exact diagonalization, and density-matrix renormalization-group methods, demonstrating a remarkably close quantitative accord between them on the general structure and hierarchy of the phases, with the zigzag, ferromagnetic, and incommensurate phases that are proximate to each other. As a result, one of the highlights is the detailed agreement on the nature of the incommensurate phases that realize two distinct counterrotating helical states.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge-guided learning with curated prior genetic biomarkers for robust model interpretation

Abstract Motivation Knowledge-guided learning offers effective and robust model training strategies in data-scarce settings by incorporating established domain knowledge, thereby enhancing generalization, robustness, and interpretability. By contrast, conventional deep learning approaches rely purely on data-driven learning, which can limit robust model interpretability, particularly in high-dimensional settings with limited size samples. In computational biology, knowledge-guided learning has primarily leveraged network- and structural-based knowledge, leading to biologically interpretable representations and enhanced predictive performance compared to conventional approaches. However, curated biomarkers, one of the most accessible forms of biological knowledge, remain largely unexplored within knowledge-guided paradigms. Results In this study, we propose a model-agnostic training paradigm, Biomarker-driven Explainable Prior-guided Learning (BioExPL), that can be applied to any neural networks that incorporates curated prior knowledge. BioExPL enforces neural networks to reflect curated biomarker priors in their latent representations through a novel knowledge-alignment loss. BioExPL consistently demonstrated significantly improved predictive performance and enhanced model interpretability with minimized computational overhead in simulation studies and intensive experiments on multiple cancer datasets. BioExPL not only integrates prior curated knowledge into the model but also accurately identifies unknown associated signals additionally. BioExPL is model-agnostic and domain-independent, enabling its integration into diverse neural network architectures. Availability and implementation The open-source is publicly available at: https://github.com/datax-lab/BioExPL.

Baek, Beomsu [Department of Computer Science, Univ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) v0.8 Model Documentation

The Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite, or PRAS, is a software package for studying power system resource adequacy. It allows the user to simulate power system operations under a wide range of operating conditions, in order to study the system's risk of failing to meet demand due to a resource shortfall, and identify the time periods and regions in which that risk occurs. This reports documents version 0.8 of the tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Commutative Algebra Modeling in Materials Science – A Case Study on Metal–Organic Frameworks (MOFs)

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a class of important crystalline and highly porous materials whose hierarchical geometry and chemistry hinder interpretable predictions in materials properties. Commutative algebra is a branch of abstract algebra that has been rarely applied in data and material sciences. We introduce the first ever commutative algebra modeling and prediction in materials science. Specifically, category-specific commutative algebra (CSCA) is proposed as a new framework for MOF representation and learning. It integrates element-based categorization with multiscale algebraic invariants to encode both local coordination motifs and global network organization of MOFs. These algebraically consistent, chemically aware representations enable compact, interpretable, and data efficient modeling of MOF properties such as Henry’s constants and uptake capacities for common gases. Compared to traditional geometric and graph-based approaches, CSCA achieves comparable or superior predictive accuracy while substantially improving interpretability and stability across data sets. By aligning commutative algebra with the chemical hierarchy, the CSCA establishes a rigorous and generalizable paradigm for understanding structure and property relationships in porous materials and provides a nonlinear algebra-based framework for data-driven material discovery.

Khaemba, Caleb S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cosmic neutrino decoupling and its observable imprints: insights from entropic-dual transport

Abstract Very different processes characterize the decoupling of neutrinos to form the cosmic neutrino background (CνB) and the much later decoupling of photons from thermal equilibrium to form the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The CνB emerges from the fuzzy, energy-dependent neutrinosphere and encodes the physics operating in the early universe in the temperature rangeT∼ 10 MeV toT∼ 10 keV. This is the epoch where beyond Standard Model (BSM) physics, especially in the neutrino sector, may be influential in setting the light element abundances, the necessarily distorted fossil neutrino energy spectra, and other light particle energy density contributions. Here we use techniques honed in extensive CMB studies to analyze the CνB as calculated in detailed neutrino energy transport and nuclear reaction simulations of the protracted weak decoupling and primordial nucleosynthesis epochs. Our moment method, relative entropy, and differential visibility approach can leverage future high precision CMB and light element primordial abundance measurements to provide new insights into the CνB and any BSM physics it encodes. We demonstrate that the evolution of the energy spectrum of the CνB throughout the weak decoupling epoch is accurately captured in the Standard Model by only three parameters per species, a non-trivial conclusion given the deviation from thermal equilibrium and the impact of the decrease of electron-positron pairs. Furthermore, we can interpret each of the three parameters as physical characteristics of a non-equilibrium system. Though the treatment presented here makes some simplifying assumptions including ignoring neutrino flavor oscillations, the success of our compact description within the Standard Model motivates its use also in BSM scenarios. We further demonstrate how observations of primordial light element abundances can be used to place constraints on the CνB energy spectrum, deriving response functions that can be applied for general deviations from a thermal spectrum. Combined with the description of those deviations that we develop here, our methods provide a convenient and powerful framework to constrain the impact of BSM physics on the CνB.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Used Nuclear Fuel Management Using the Next Generation System Analysis Model

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is leading the National effort to manage the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, encompassing the safe transportation, storage/staging, and/or eventual disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is DOE’s discrete-event, agent-based simulation tool designed to model the full life cycle of UNF from reactor discharge to final disposal. NGSAM supports the DOE Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition by enabling a detailed, scenario-based analysis of logistics, infrastructure, and shipping strategies. NGSAM replaces legacy models with a modern, flexible platform built on Repast Simphony and enhanced by the Process Analysis Tool. NGSAM simulates the movement and interaction of individual fuel assemblies with system components such as canisters, casks, railcars, and facilities. The model integrates with the Java Transportation Operations Model to plan and execute transportation scenarios, supporting both constrained and unconstrained resource allocation. Key features include customizable allocation and acceptance algorithms, detailed facility-level operations, and a Quick Edit tool for rapid scenario adjustments. NGSAM supports multimodal transportation modeling (e.g. rail, road, barge) and provides comprehensive cost, schedule, and infrastructure data. NGSAM utilizes data from sources such as DOE’s STANDARDS UNF database and DOE’s Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation, while also allowing user-defined inputs for scenario customization. NGSAM enables stakeholders to evaluate complex UNF management strategies, assess system performance under varying assumptions, and inform decision making for future infrastructure investments. Its modular architecture and integration with other Integrated Waste Management System tools make it a critical asset for planning the safe and efficient disposition of the Nation’s growing UNF inventory.

Craig, Brian [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spectroscopy in Nanoscopic Cavities: Models and Recent Experiments

The ability of nanophotonic cavities to confine and store light to nanoscale dimensions has important implications for enhancing molecular, excitonic, phononic, and plasmonic optical responses. Spectroscopic signatures of processes that are ordinarily exceedingly weak such as pure absorption and Raman scattering have been brought to the single-particle limit of detection, while new emergent polaritonic states of optical matter have been realized through coupling material and photonic cavity degrees of freedom across a wide range of experimentally accessible interaction strengths. In this review, we discuss both optical and electron beam spectroscopies of cavity-coupled material systems in weak, strong, and ultrastrong coupling regimes, providing a theoretical basis for understanding the physics inherent to each while highlighting recent experimental advances and exciting future directions.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Multi-agent Large Language Model Reasoning for Autonomous Heterogeneous Catalyst Discovery

Artificial intelligence is reshaping scientific exploration, but most methods automate procedural tasks without engaging in scientific reasoning, limiting autonomy in discovery. We demonstrate that hierarchical agentic large language model reasoning can efficiently drive simulation and scientific exploration. Across two chemical applications, CO adsorption on Cu surface transition metal adatoms and on M–N–C catalysts, reasoning-guided exploration reduces required atomistic simulations by up to 90% relative to heuristic or random selection. Comparisons across single-agent, multi-agent, and stochastic baselines show that hierarchical strategies yield more coherent and information-efficient search trajectories. Reasoning traces reveal chemically grounded decisions that cannot be explained by semantic bias or stochastic sampling. We realize these agentic reasoning strategies in Materials Agents for Simulation and Theory in Electronic-structure Reasoning (MASTER), a multimodal system that translates natural language into density functional theory workflows. Altogether, multi-agent collaboration accelerates heterogeneous catalyst discovery and marks a step toward more autonomous, reasoning-guided scientific exploration.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Precise Modeling of a Complex Solenoidal Magnetic Field Using a Combination of Analytic Functions and a PINN

We demonstrate an iterative approach to modeling a sparsely measured magnetic field in a large-bore solenoid. This approach uses a hybrid of traditional and machine learning techniques. The traditional technique is a linear least-squares fit using a series solution to Laplace's equation, while the machine learning technique involves the training of a physics-informed neural network (PINN) on the least-squares fit residuals. We use a newly defined activation function "DELTAsnake," a modification to the snake activation function proposed by Ziyin et al. that allows for stronger curvature and non-monotonicity. The combined model approximately obeys Maxwell's equations to a level sufficient for producing high quality physics simulations and analysis. Our approach is applied to a highly realistic calculation of the expected magnetic field in the Mu2e experiment's Detector Solenoid which includes a simple model for the expected statistical measurement uncertainties. Using ten toy measurement simulations, we demonstrate the capabilities of our model in comparison to the least-squares method alone; the least-squares method alone results in a reduced chi-squared statistic of ${2.15 \pm 0.01}$, while our approach improves the reduced chi-square to ${1.034 \pm 0.005}$. Furthermore, for an average toy simulation, we show that the range of the RMS of the three field component residuals reduces from ${0.07-0.37}$ Gauss to ${0.05-0.07}$ Gauss. We find that this novel method is robust against a realistic systematic uncertainty deriving from Hall probe calibration bias and can be used to significantly reduce the number of measurements required to achieve an accurate model.

Kampa, Cole [Caltech] (ORCID:0000000192972920)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.

Patel, Pralit L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy-Optimal Vehicle Longitudinal Motion Control via Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle and Ultra-Local Model

Longitudinal vehicle motion control is essential for enhancing performance and optimizing a vehicle’s energy usage. However, it remains a challenging task due to the nonlinear and uncertain nature of vehicle dynamics, along with varying driving conditions. This paper presents a novel ultra-local optimal control approach based on Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle (PMP) that circumvents the need for detailed system identification by employing an ultra-local model. The control objective is to minimize the total energy consumption under boundary conditions while ensuring smooth traction force generation. The proposed approach is evaluated using a high-fidelity vehicle model in three representative scenarios: (i) nominal driving, (ii) a change in tire road friction coefficient (TRFC) from 0.5 to 0.65 and road slope from 0% to 5% during the maneuver, with target velocity unchanged, and (iii) a change in target velocity from 20 m/s to 0 m/s during the maneuver, while maintaining nominal TRFC and slope conditions. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method delivers robust performance, effectively balancing consumption and tracking accuracy in all tested scenarios.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Investigation of Fluid Flow and Space Charge in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) Detectors

Overview This project focused on developing a high-fidelity numerical framework to simulate the multiphysics environment within Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) detectors. The primary objective was to characterize the complex interplay between ion transport, background fluid dynamics, and electric field distortions—a critical factor for the calibration and sensitivity of next-generation High Energy Physics experiments, such as DUNE. Technical Achievements The research successfully yielded a hybrid numerical space-charge solver utilizing a Cell-Centered Finite Volume Method (FVM) for ion transport coupled with a Finite Element Method (FEM) for electric potential. Key accomplishments include: • Verification & Validation: The 3-D solver was rigorously verified against 1-D analytical solutions, demonstrating high numerical accuracy in predicting space-charge-induced field deviations. • Field Distortion Analysis: 3D simulations revealed that space charge effects introduce significant non-uniformities in the electric field. Critically, the research identified that background LAr flow velocities, when comparable to ion drift velocities, markedly exacerbate these distortions. • Technology Transfer: The resulting source code and comprehensive user manuals were successfully transferred to collaborators at Fermilab, providing a portable computational tool for the broader scientific community. Challenges and Future Directions While the space-charge solver achieved all performance metrics, the integrated fluid dynamics modeling encountered convergence challenges stemming from the extreme 200-fold disparity in length scales between the detector's 37 mm inlet pipes and the 8-meter global domain. To address this, the project has identified a clear technical pivot toward Hierarchical Geometric Adaptive Mesh Refinement (HG-AMR). By implementing an h-type refinement strategy with hanging nodes, future iterations of this solver will be capable of resolving localized high-gradient inlet flows without the prohibitive computational costs of regular grids. This advancement, combined with data-driven uncertainty quantification based on MicroBooNE-style calibration, will enable the precise modeling of detector responses in large-scale cryogenic environments where direct measurement remains difficult. Impact The computational tools developed under this award provide a foundation for enhancing the energy resolution and spatial reconstruction of noble liquid detectors. By bridging the gap between theoretical fluid dynamics and experimental field calibration, this work supports the DOE’s mission to advance the frontiers of neutrino physics and dark matter detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis and investigation into explosive sensitivity for a series of new picramide explosives

Tailoring the molecular properties that govern energetic material sensitivity is essential to improve safety and help develop new energetic materials. Despite this need, understanding the complex chemistry and physics of explosive initiation and propagation is still a challenge. Recent work by our group has reinforced the view that explosive sensitivity under sub-shock conditions is connected to the strength of the weakest covalent bond in the molecule, that is, its “trigger linkage.” These correlations have been observed with different classes of energetic molecules and indicate that “trigger linkage” bond breaking, and heat of explosion are good indicators for the sensitivity trends. Herein we report the synthesis of aliphatic energetic materials with ethane, propane and neopentane backbones. Experimental and computational studies show that the trigger linkage model, based on results from quantum molecular dynamics simulations, correctly predicts trends observed in the impact sensitivity of the molecules. However, while the model predicts the impact sensitivities of the ethane series, the neopentane series has higher impact sensitivities than predicted, which is presumably influenced by crystal packing effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Depletion benchmark for a high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel experiment in the advanced test reactor

Reactor physics depletion benchmarks for high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel are limited in number. In particular, there is limited data for HALEU benchmarks for U-10Mo (uranium-10% molybdenum) plate fuel that is being developed for use in the United States’ high performance research reactors including the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), Advanced Test Reactor Critical Facility (ATR-C), High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR), University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR), National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR). These six reactors currently operate with highly enriched uranium dispersed fuel in an aluminum matrix. In support of conversion to a HALEU fuel, qualification of U-10Mo formed into a monolithic foil is being performed. Fuel qualification involves irradiating fuel specimens in the ATR. The irradiation tests provide an opportunity to benchmark depletion capabilities of reactor physics codes in support of the ATR operation, as well as develop benchmarks that can be used by other institutions to benchmark other reactor physics codes. This paper documents the development of a benchmark model of the irradiation of the ATR Full-size plate In center flux trap Position 7 (AFIP-7) experiment using the depletion codes MC21 and Advanced Dimensional Depletion for Engineering of Reactors (ADDER).

Nielsen, Joseph W. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prime Time for Model-Predictive Control? Assessing the Technical and Market Readiness of Advanced Controls in Buildings

Despite three decades of extensive research and field testing that have consistently validated the benefits of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in building applications, the technology has seen limited market adoption. This paper evaluates the readiness of MPC for widespread deployment, showcases recent demonstrations and field tests across diverse building types, including residential, small commercial, large commercial, and campus settings. Our results demonstrate that MPC can optimize system operations to achieve load shifting, minimize curtailment of on-site generation, and reduce energy costs by up to 80 %, while maintaining or improving occupant comfort. We also show that MPC can effectively control large assets, such as MW-sized thermal storage systems, and respond to dynamic pricing signals. However, achieving scale remains difficult due to labor-intensive workflows, reliance on a “PhD-in-the-loop” for MPC design and maintenance, susceptibility to fragile data infrastructure, and persistent workforce education and acceptance barriers. To bridge this gap, we outline a transition from bespoke, labor intensive prototypes toward streamlined, segment-targeted deployment strategies that leverage model templates, semantic tools, and generative AI. By automating control configuration and reducing engineering effort, these recommendations provide a pathway for transforming successful research demonstrations into scalable, market ready solutions for MPC-based controls.

Pritoni, Marco↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗