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At least 181 records · Page 10

Twenty Years and Counting—Where are they? Practical Recommendations for Commercializing AI/ML for Intrusion Detection in the Nuclear Industry

Research and development into applications for improving equipment condition monitoring programs at nuclear facilities has been around since the 1990s. However, while the field has moved from using data-driven machine learning (ML) algorithms for detection and prediction of equipment degradation and failure to prognostic capabilities, these applications are still not widely used in the U.S. nuclear industry. Additionally, there has been significant effort in designing both data-driven and physics-based artificial intelligence (AI) and ML models for many other potential applications in the nuclear industry, including cyber intrusion detection systems (IDS). However, as the last twenty years in condition-based maintenance research has shown us, there are significant hurdles that must be overcome for deployment of IDS on plant systems. This paper provides a discussion on the practical recommendations that researchers should consider for successful adoption of AI/ML IDS in the nuclear industry.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A New Concurrent Engineering Tool for the New Mission Design Center at NASA Ames Research Center

The NASA Ames Mission Design Center (MDC) has undergone a significant transformation process in recent years, culminating in becoming a true Concurrent Engineering Center. The underlying goal of this transformation is to better serve the Ames PI community in a cost-effective and rapidly-responsive way, providing quality products pivotal to the decision-making proposal strategy of our center. The four pillars of the change focus on four areas: personnel, physical places, tools, and training. Personnel: the MDC switched from using a dedicated pool of engineers—mostly entry-level career—for a matrixed approach with more experienced Subject Matter Experts, usually involved in spaceflight projects. These SMEs get detailed to the MDC for the duration of the study on a part-time or full-time basis. Physical places: The physical aspect pertains mostly to the layout of the new Engineering building and the dedicated concurrent engineering layout to foster collaboration. The current plan includes a dedicated space for concurrent engineering sessions as well as dedicated project rooms for concept studies. Tool: the MDC team is developing a new in-house concurrent engineering tool to facilitate concurrent engineering sessions. The team leveraged the many lessons learned and insight gained from using the current concurrent engineering tool, in use since 2007. SMEs have been involved throughout its design and development, ensuring accuracy and providing validity to the implementation approach. This new tool is database-driven and allows a team to work concurrently on the same model of a mission concept. “Workspaces” are provided for each of the traditional spacecraft mission design disciplines, including cost accounting and systems engineering. There are multiple tiers of fidelity available within each workspace, which can be completed parametrically or independently from the other disciplines as needed or synchronously with the other disciplines. A “commit” step synchronizes a workspace with the mission database and identifies any potential conflicts, along with the user who entered the conflicting data. A Mission Summary workspace enables a Study Lead to run an effective CE session, displaying key graphics, workspace status information, and technical and monetary budget information. This new CE tool will be undergoing Beta Testing with its primary user base and a limited Parts database in the summer of 2020. The team plans to release the first fully operational version in December 2020. Training: working in early concept development and maturation for a space mission requires a unique mindset and being comfortable with uncertainties in an environment where requirements are not yet fully developed, and where changes and trade-offs happen at a high tempo. The MDC started a weekly training program to ensure a common knowledge base on how do develop and mature early concept studies, as well as how to operate in a concurrent engineering environment. In conclusion, the MDC transformation will provide the overall PI community focused on cost-effective small satellite scientific missions with a powerful tool to address and mature early concepts more effectively and efficiently.

David Mauro↗

Rolling DICE to Advance Knowledge of Land-Atmosphere Interactions

The Diurnal Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (DICE) aims to explore the complex interactions between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer, which are generally not well understood and difficult to isolate in models. The project involves over 10 different models, combining expertise from both land surface and atmospheric boundary-layer modelling groups. A simple three-stage methodology is designed to assess land-atmosphere feedbacks. Stage 1: the individual components are assessed in isolation, driven and evaluated against observational data; stage 2: the impact of coupling is investigated; stage 3: the sensitivity of the stand-alone models to variations in driving data is explored. For this initial study, a three-day clear-sky period in the mid-west USA over, an assumed simple, predominantly grass surface was simulated using data from the CASES-99 field campaign. Key conclusions from the study include: (1) the memory of vegetation state within Land Surface Models (LSMs) needs attention; (2) the height of atmospheric forcing for LSMs is important, particularly for the nocturnal boundary layer, and this has implications for both observations and vertical resolution for atmospheric models; (3) land-atmosphere feedbacks reduce errors in simulated surface fluxes at the expense of the accuracy of the variables that the models are designed to simulate (e.g., temperature, humidity and wind speed); (4) problems remain in representing the stable boundary layer in atmospheric models; (5) the mixing of temperature and humidity within the boundary layer may need to be represented separately; (6) differences in daytime profiles of heat, moisture and momentum between models are mainly due to the way the models erode the inversion at the top of the boundary layer, rather than differences in the surface fluxes. Resultant variations in modelled boundary layer heights have a substantial impact on relative humidity and could partially explain variations in coupling strength between models in the GLACE experiment.

Martin Best↗

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗

Peridynamics and surrogate modeling of pressure-driven well stimulation

In this work we use the peridynamics theory of solid mechanics to simulate fracture in an annular rock domain subject to an in-situ stress and create surrogate models that predict the area of the resulting cracks. Peridynamics is a non-local formulation of continuum mechanics that naturally accommodates material discontinuities. Furthermore, unlike other fracture modeling techniques there is no need to provide information about the crack path. We utilize the peridynamics code Peridigm and take a two-stage approach to fracture modeling. First an implicit solve is performed to compute the in-situ stress state. We then execute an explicit solve where a pressure loading designed to emulate fluid-driven hydraulic fracture is applied at the borehole and transmitted to the pre-stressed rock. We present results from polynomial and single and multi-level Gaussian process surrogate models constructed from a sampling study of the peridynamics model. The surrogates predict crack area given a measure of the in-situ stress anisotropy and rise time and amplitude of the pressure loading. These surrogates take a minuscule fraction of peridynamics model's running time to evaluate and are a step towards enabling advanced optimization and uncertainty quantification workflows that require many model evaluations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A general infrastructure for data-driven control design and implementation in tokamaks

A general infrastructure for tokamak controllers based on data-driven neural net models is presented. The paradigm allows for more flexible choices of both the underlying model and the desired controlled variables and targets. The system is implemented and tested on the DIII-D tokamak, enacting simultaneous pressure and temperature control via a finite-set model-predictive controller. Traditional control methods such as proportional–integral–derivative (PID) have proven effective for decoupled control tasks, but scale poorly when trying to achieve more complicated goals such as full state control. This is exactly where model-based controllers succeed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Aeroelastic Modeling and Full-Scale Loads Measurements for Investigation of Single-Axis PV Tracker Wind-Driven Dynamic Instabilities

While wind tunnel testing and proprietary industry modeling tools have been used for years to design and develop PV tracker systems, wind induced dynamic failures are becoming more prevalent and high visibility. Designers and manufactures have reacted by developing new systems or add-on products to improve system dynamics adding to overall system costs. To better understand the physics and aeroelastic behavior that leads to dynamic instabilities NREL researches have taken up a first of a kind study to both develop open source aeroelastic modeling tools and measure tracker loads on a single axis full-scale tracker system at a high wind site. These modeling tools can simulate the fluid-structure interaction driving torsional instabilities under a wide range of turbulent inflow conditions and stow angles. The results of these simulations reveal the flow features associated with panel rotation and the induced loads in the structure. The experimental load measurements can be used to validate models and provide a quantifiable understanding of tracker dynamics, critical loads paths, identify instability markers, inform resilient design, and suggest the most favorable stow approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Physics-coupled data-driven design of high-temperature alloys

We present a materials design loop, which streamlines physics-coupled machine learning (ML) surrogate models to discover new alloy chemistries with improved properties. The efficacy is demonstrated by discovering a high-temperature alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steel with enhanced creep, followed by experimental validation. The ML models have been trained using a well-curated, highly consistent experimental dataset augmented with synthetic microstructural features from a computational thermodynamic approach. We have populated a large number of hypothetical AFA alloys to explore the high-dimensional composition space and have predicted their creep properties by providing the same synthetic input features obtained from the trained ML models. Uncertainties from the ML training were taken as thresholds for truncating predicted results to identify alloys with improved or deteriorated creep. Individual elemental compositions have been determined via probability density distribution analysis from the group of alloys at the top and bottom of the predicted creep values for further virtual and experimental validations. In conclusion, we anticipate that this workflow can be applied to screen desired conditions, such as chemistry and processing parameters, in high-dimensional space through physics-guided data analytics.

Alloy design↗

Micropolar deep material network

This study extends the Deep Material Network (DMN), a physics-informed machine learning framework, to predict the homogenized mechanical response of composite materials with micropolar (Cosserat-type) constitutive behavior. This extension incorporates microstructure-dependent size effects, enabling accurate, efficient, and size-aware predictions for composites with complex internal architectures. While traditional, direct numerical simulation micropolar models effectively capture size effects by introducing extra local degrees of freedom, they bring significant computational challenges, particularly for multiscale analyses relevant to engineering applications. The micropolar DMN developed in this paper achieves high accuracy while significantly reducing computation time compared to micropolar direct numerical simulations. This advancement enables multiscale analyses and parameter studies that were previously impractical, such as high-cycle fatigue simulations and comprehensive investigations of internal length scale effects notably in size-dependent plastic response and the optimization of lattice structures. By uniting microstructure-sensitive modeling, physics-driven learning, and scalable surrogate modeling, the micropolar DMN paves the way for accelerated material design, large-scale parametric studies, and the reliable incorporation of size-dependent effects across a wide range of engineering applications, including optimization and next-generation composite design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Non-equilibrium simulations of hydraulic permeation: Role of mechanical boundary conditions in dense membranes

Understanding the mechanisms of water transport in reverse osmosis membranes is critical for improving membrane performance and guiding material design. While classical models describe transport as either solution-diffusion (SD)—involving concentration-driven diffusion through a homogeneous medium—or pore-flow (PF)—involving pressure-driven convection through percolated water channels—their applicability to crosslinked polyamide membranes remains debated. Here, using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, we investigate the impact of mechanical support conditions on pressure-driven water transport in polyamide membranes across varying crosslink densities and pressure differentials (1000–5000 bar). Two support conditions are considered: graphene-restrained, representing experimentally relevant supported membranes, and freeze-restrained, mimicking a self-supported structure. In graphene-restrained systems, water concentration gradients and constant pressure profiles emerge, consistent with SD theory and incompatible with PF assumptions due to the absence of percolated pores and sub-nanometer voids. In contrast, freeze-restrained systems display uniform water concentration and linearly decreasing pressure at 1000 bar, and exhibit compressibility-induced water gradients and partial percolation at 5000 bar, resembling PF-like behavior. However, the underlying assumptions of PF theory—continuous solvent pathways and pressure transmission through water-filled pores—are not met under most conditions. Our results demonstrate that accurate modeling of reverse osmosis membranes must incorporate realistic mechanical boundary conditions to distinguish between transport mechanisms. For dense polyamide membranes supported by porous substrates, graphene-restrained simulations best reflect experimental setups and support the SD model as the dominant mechanism of water permeation.

molecular dynamics↗

A Review of Cyber-Physical Security for Photovoltaic Systems

In this paper, the challenges and a future vision of the cyber-physical security of photovoltaic (PV) systems are discussed from a firmware, network, PV converter controls, and grid security perspective. The vulnerabilities of PV systems are investigated under a variety of cyber-attacks, ranging from data integrity attacks to software-based attacks. A success rate metric is designed to evaluate the impact and facilitate decision making. Model-based and data-driven methods for threat detection and mitigation are summarized. In addition, the blockchain technology that addresses cyber-attacks in software and cyber networks is described. Simulation and experimental results that show the impact of cyber-attacks at the converter (device) and grid (system) levels are presented. Finally, potential research opportunities are discussed for next-generation, cyber-secure power electronics systems. These opportunities include multi-scale controllability, self-/event-triggering control, artificial intelligence/machine learning, hot patching, and online security. As of today, this study will be one of the few comprehensive studies in this emerging and fast-growing area.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Contrasting Carbon–Water–Energy Dynamics in Perennial and Annual Bioenergy Agroecosystems Using Eddy Covariance and Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.

Accumulated Local Effects↗

LDRD FY25 Program Overview

As Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program enters its fifth decade of leading-edge research and development, its impact and importance have never been stronger. The program continues to advance strategic investments in pioneering science, technology, and engineering, ensuring LLNL will be ready to deliver on our mission as it evolves over the coming decades. Investing in LDRD research, and the people who perform this critical work, gives LLNL the ability to sustain our role as a leader in the Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration enterprise. The LDRD program enables high-risk, high-payoff research that anticipates emerging threats and future mission needs. By nurturing the ingenuity of the Lab’s greatest asset, its people, LDRD funding advances not only our research but also grows and nurtures our workforce: engaging future innovators with student mentoring, challenging postdoctoral researchers to apply their skills to support national security, and strengthening the leadership skills of early career staff. This annual report documents how LDRD investments advance LLNL’s science, technology, and engineering across our mission space. To assess LDRD’s impact we track both short and long-term metrics such as peer-reviewed publications, number of students, or professional fellows. In addition to reviewing these metrics, I encourage you to delve deeper into the breadth of science and technology that illustrate the strategic value of this research portfolio. For instance, a recent exploratory research project used advanced manufacturing to construct miniaturized three-dimensional ion traps for a quantum computer with reduced quantum error rates to enable applications that address national security missions and support basic science. Another project has delved into studying detonation by examining deflagration to enhance the safety and security of the nuclear weapons stockpile. LDRD researchers are also deploying AI agents on two of the world’s most powerful supercomputers to automate and accelerate inertial confinement fusion experiments. Other teams are delivering more accurate optical constants to enable improved validation for aluminum to advance atomic and molecular physics models. LDRD-driven discoveries of how metals deform under extreme conditions strengthen our ability to model and design materials for demanding national security environments. National security challenges are increasingly complex and continuously evolving. LDRD focuses our most innovative science and technology on these challenges, ensuring the Laboratory is developing creative, forward-leaning solutions for our nation and the world. The following pages feature highlights of published scientific advances, patents, and honors that stem from LDRD investments. As you read this report, I hope you will understand how these investments position the Laboratory, and our partners, to meet the demands of the decades ahead.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Vehicle Integrated Performance Analysis, the VIPA Experience: Reconnecting with Technical Integration

Today's NASA is facing significant challenges and changes. The Exploration initiative indicates a large increase in projects with limited increase in budget. The Columbia report has criticized NASA for its lack of insight and technical integration impacting its ability to provide safety. The Aldridge report is advocating NASA find new ways of doing business. Very early in the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program a small team of engineers at MSFC were asked to propose a process for performing a system level assessment of a launch vehicle. The request was aimed primarily at providing insight and making NASA a "smart buyer." Out of this effort the VIPA team was created. The difference between the VIPA effort and many integration attempts is that VIPA focuses on using experienced people from various disciplines and a process which focuses them on a technically integrated assessment. Most previous attempts have focused on developing an all encompassing software tool. In addition, VIPA anchored its process formulation in the experience of its members and in early developmental Space Shuttle experience. The primary reference for this is NASA-TP-2001-210092, "Launch Vehicle Design Process: Characterization, Technical Integration, and Lessons Learned," and discussions with its authors. The foundations of VIPA's process are described. The VIPA team also recognized the need to drive detailed analysis earlier in the design process. Analyses and techniques typically done in later design phases, are brought forward using improved computing technology. The intent is to allow the identification of significant sensitivities, trades, and design issues much earlier in the program. This process is driven by the T-model for Technical Integration described in the aforementioned reference. VIPA's approach to performing system level technical integration is discussed in detail. Proposed definitions are offered to clarify this discussion and the general systems integration dialog. VIPA's capabilities and process can now be used to significantly enhance the development and monitoring of realizable project requirements. This is done through the use of VIPA's V-model. Starting with a given concept, VIPA's assessment validates the concept's stated performance, identifies significant issues either with the concept or the requirements, and then re-integrates these issues to determine impacts. This process is discussed along with a description of how it may be integrated into a program's insight and review process. The VIPA process has been employed successfully on several projects including SLI, Orbital Space Plane (OSP), and several heavy lift concepts for Exploration. It has also been proposed for use on the Jupiter Icy Moon (JIMO) spacecraft. The VIPA process has gained favor with both engineering and project organizations for being responsive and insightful. Selected results from these assessments will be presented.

McGhee, David S.↗

Development and Preliminary Testing of a High Precision Long Stroke Slit Change Mechanism for the SPICE Instrument

In the frame of ESA's Solar Orbiter scientific mission, Almatech has been selected to design, develop and test the Slit Change Mechanism of the SPICE (SPectral Imaging of the Coronal Environment) instrument. In order to guaranty optical cleanliness level while fulfilling stringent positioning accuracies and repeatability requirements for slit positioning in the optical path of the instrument, a linear guiding system based on a double flexible blade arrangement has been selected. The four different slits to be used for the SPICE instrument resulted in a total stroke of 16.5 mm in this linear slit changer arrangement. The combination of long stroke and high precision positioning requirements has been identified as the main design challenge to be validated through breadboard models testing. This paper presents the development of SPICE's Slit Change Mechanism (SCM) and the two-step validation tests successfully performed on breadboard models of its flexible blade support system. The validation test results have demonstrated the full adequacy of the flexible blade guiding system implemented in SPICE's Slit Change Mechanism in a stand-alone configuration. Further breadboard test results, studying the influence of the compliant connection to the SCM linear actuator on an enhanced flexible guiding system design have shown significant enhancements in the positioning accuracy and repeatability of the selected flexible guiding system. Preliminary evaluation of the linear actuator design, including a detailed tolerance analyses, has shown the suitability of this satellite roller screw based mechanism for the actuation of the tested flexible guiding system and compliant connection. The presented development and preliminary testing of the high-precision long-stroke Slit Change Mechanism for the SPICE Instrument are considered fully successful such that future tests considering the full Slit Change Mechanism can be performed, with the gained confidence, directly on a Qualification Model. The selected linear Slit Change Mechanism design concept, consisting of a flexible guiding system driven by a hermetically sealed linear drive mechanism, is considered validated for the specific application of the SPICE instrument, with great potential for other special applications where contamination and high precision positioning are dominant design drivers.

Paciotti, Gabriel↗