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NASA NTRS2012

An Integrated Biomechanical Model for Microgravity-Induced Visual Impairment

When gravitational unloading occurs upon entry to space, astronauts experience a major shift in the distribution of their bodily fluids, with a net headward movement. Measurements have shown that intraocular pressure spikes, and there is a strong suspicion that intracranial pressure also rises. Some astronauts in both short- and long-duration spaceflight develop visual acuity changes, which may or may not reverse upon return to earth gravity. To date, of the 36 U.S. astronauts who have participated in long-duration space missions on the International Space Station, 15 crew members have developed minor to severe visual decrements and anatomical changes. These ophthalmic changes include hyperopic shift, optic nerve distension, optic disc edema, globe flattening, choroidal folds, and elevated cerebrospinal fluid pressure. In order to understand the physical mechanisms behind these phenomena, NASA is developing an integrated model that appropriately captures whole-body fluids transport through lumped-parameter models for the cerebrospinal and cardiovascular systems. This data feeds into a finite element model for the ocular globe and retrobulbar subarachnoid space through time-dependent boundary conditions. Although tissue models and finite element representations of the corneo-scleral shell, retina, choroid and optic nerve head have been integrated to study pathological conditions such as glaucoma, the retrobulbar subarachnoid space behind the eye has received much less attention. This presentation will describe the development and scientific foundation of our holistic model.

Nelson, Emily S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Application of Modeling and Simulation in Capacity Management within the ITIL Framework

Tightly integrating modeling and simulation techniques into Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) practices can be one of the driving factors behind a successful and cost-effective capacity management effort for any Information Technology (IT) system. ITIL is a best practices framework for managing IT infrastructure, development and operations. Translating ITIL theory into operational reality can be a challenge. This paper aims to highlight how to best integrate modeling and simulation into an ITIL implementation. For cases where the project team initially has difficulty gaining consensus on investing in modeling and simulation resources, a clear definition for M&S implementation into the ITIL framework, specifically its role in supporting Capacity Management, is critical to gaining the support required to garner these resources. This implementation should also help to clearly define M&S support to the overall system mission. This paper will describe the development of an integrated modeling approach and how best to tie M&S to definitive goals for evaluating system capacity and performance requirements. Specifically the paper will discuss best practices for implementing modeling and simulation into ITIL. These practices hinge on implementing integrated M&S methods that 1) encompass at least two or more predictive modeling techniques, 2) complement each one's respective strengths and weaknesses to support the validation of predicted results, and 3) are tied to the system's performance and workload monitoring efforts. How to structure two forms of modeling: statistical and simUlation in the development of "As Is" and "To Be" efforts will be used to exemplify the integrated M&S methods. The paper will show how these methods can better support the project's overall capacity management efforts.

Rahmani, Sonya↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early Twenty-First Century

This study quantifies mean annual and monthly fluxes of Earth's water cycle over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the flux estimates are based on satellite measurements first and data-integrating models second. A careful accounting of uncertainty in the estimates is included. It is applied within a routine that enforces multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework in order to produce objectively determined optimized flux estimates. In the majority of cases, the observed annual surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are negligible. Fluxes were poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Many of the satellite systems that contributed data have been or will soon be lost or replaced. Models that integrate ground-based and remote observations will be critical for ameliorating gaps and discontinuities in the data records caused by these transitions. Continued development of such models is essential for maximizing the value of the observations. Next-generation observing systems are the best hope for significantly improving global water budget accounting.

Numerical analysis/modeling↗
NASA NTRS1999

Comparison of Integrated Analysis Methods for Two Model Scenarios

Integrated analysis methods have the potential to substantially decrease the time required for analysis modeling. Integration with computer aided design (CAD) software can also allow a model to be more accurate by facilitating import of exact design geometry. However, the integrated method utilized must sometimes be tailored to the specific modeling situation, in order to make the process most efficient. Two cases are presented here that illustrate different processes used for thermal analysis on two different models. These examples are used to illustrate how the requirements, available input, expected output, and tools available all affect the process selected by the analyst for the most efficient and effective analysis.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Integrated Medical Model

This slide presentation reviews the goals and approach for the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software decision support tool that forecasts medical events during spaceflight and optimizes medical systems during simulations. It includes information on the software capabilities, program stakeholders, use history, and the software logic.

Butler, Douglas J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A shared-world conceptual model for integrating space station life sciences telescience operations

Mental models of the Space Station and its ancillary facilities will be employed by users of the Space Station as they draw upon past experiences, perform tasks, and collectively plan for future activities. The operational environment of the Space Station will incorporate telescience, a new set of operational modes. To investigate properties of the operational environment, distributed users, and the mental models they employ to manipulate resources while conducting telescience, an integrating shared-world conceptual model of Space Station telescience is proposed. The model comprises distributed users and resources (active elements); agents who mediate interactions among these elements on the basis of intelligent processing of shared information; and telescience protocols which structure the interactions of agents as they engage in cooperative, responsive interactions on behalf of users and resources distributed in space and time. Examples from the life sciences are used to instantiate and refine the model's principles. Implications for transaction management and autonomy are discussed. Experiments employing the model are described which the authors intend to conduct using the Space Station Life Sciences Telescience Testbed currently under development at Ames Research Center.

Johnson, Vicki↗
NASA NTRS1997

Performance of an INTEGRAL spectrometer model

Model calculations for the INTEGRAL spectrometer (SPI) onboard the future INTErnational Gamma Ray Astrophysics Laboratory (INTEGAL) are presented, where the sensitivity for narrow lines is based on estimates of the background level and the detection efficiency. The instrumental background rates are explained as the sum of various components that depend on the cosmic ray intensity and the spectrometer characteristics, such as the mass distribution around the Ge detectors, the passive material, the characteristics of the detector system and the background reduction techniques. Extended background calculations were performed with Monte Carlo simulations and using semi-empirical and calculated neutron and proton cross sections. In order to improve the INTEGRAL spectrometer sensitivity, several designs and background reduction techniques were compared for an instrument with a fixed detector volume.

Jean, P.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Modeling Macro- and Micro-Scale Turbulent Mixing and Chemistry in Engine Exhaust Plumes

Simulation of turbulent mixing and chemical processes in the near-field plume and plume-vortex regimes has been successfully carried out recently using a reduced gas phase kinetics mechanism which substantially decreased the computational cost. A detailed mechanism including gas phase HOx, NOx, and SOx chemistry between the aircraft exhaust and the ambient air in near-field aircraft plumes is compiled. A reduced mechanism capturing the major chemical pathways is developed. Predictions by the reduced mechanism are found to be in good agreement with those by the detailed mechanism. With the reduced chemistry, the computer CPU time is saved by a factor of more than 3.5 for the near-field plume modeling. Distributions of major chemical species are obtained and analyzed. The computed sensitivities of major species with respect to reaction step are deduced for identification of the dominant gas phase kinetic reaction pathways in the jet plume. Both the near field plume and the plume-vortex regimes were investigated using advanced mixing models. In the near field, a stand-alone mixing model was used to investigate the impact of turbulent mixing on the micro- and macro-scale mixing processes using a reduced reaction kinetics model. The plume-vortex regime was simulated using a large-eddy simulation model. Vortex plume behind Boeing 737 and 747 aircraft was simulated along with relevant kinetics. Many features of the computed flow field show reasonable agreement with data. The entrainment of the engine plumes into the wing tip vortices and also the partial detrainment of the plume were numerically captured. The impact of fluid mechanics on the chemical processes was also studied. Results show that there are significant differences between spatial and temporal simulations especially in the predicted SO3 concentrations. This has important implications for the prediction of sulfuric acid aerosols in the wake and may partly explain the discrepancy between past numerical studies (that employed parabolic or temporal approximations) and the measured data. Finally to address the major uncertainty in the near-field plume modeling related to the plume processing of sulfur compounds and advanced model was developed to evaluate its impact on the chemical processes in the near wake. A comprehensive aerosol model is developed and it is coupled with chemical kinetics and the axisymmetric turbulent jet flow models. The integrated model is used to simulate microphysical processes in the near-field jet plume, including sulfuric acid and water binary homogeneous nucleation, coagulation, non-equilibrium heteromolecular condensation, and sulfur-induced soot activation. The formation and evolution of aerosols are computed and analyzed. The computed results show that a large number of ultra-fine (0.3--0.6 nm in radius) volatile HSO4 - HO embryos are generated in the near-field plume. These embryos further grow in size by self coagulation and condensation. Soot particles can be activated by both heterogeneous nucleation and scavenging of H2SO4-H2O aerosols. These activated soot particles can serve as water condensation nuclei for contrail formation. Conditions under which ice contrails can form behind aircrafts are studied. The sensitivities of the threshold temperature for contrail formation with respect to aircraft propulsion efficiency, relative humidity, and ambient pressure are evaluated. The computed aerosol properties for different extent of fuel sulfur conversion to S(VI) (SO3 and H2SO4) in engine are examined and the results are found to be sensitive to this conversion fraction.

Menon, Suresh↗
NASA NTRS2005

Modeling and Simulation Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A): A New Undertaking for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate

and Accreditation (VV&A) session audience, a snapshot review of the Exploration Space Mission Directorate s (ESMD) investigation into implementation of a modeling and simulation (M&S) VV&A program. The presentation provides some legacy ESMD reference material, including information on the then-current organizational structure, and M&S (Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA)) focus contained therein, to provide a context for the proposed M&S VV&A approach. This reference material briefly highlights the SBA goals and objectives, and outlines FY05 M&S development and implementation consistent with the Subjective Assessment, Constructive Assessment, Operator-in-the-Loop Assessment, Hardware-in-the-Loop Assessment, and In Service Operations Assessment M&S construct, the NASA Exploration Information Ontology Model (NExIOM) data model, and integration with the Windchill-based Integrated Collaborative Environment (ICE). The presentation then addresses the ESMD team s initial conclusions regarding an M&S VV&A program, summarizes the general VV&A implementation approach anticipated, and outlines some of the recognized VV&A program challenges, all within a broader context of the overarching Integrated Modeling and Simulation (IM&S) environment at both the ESMD and Agency (NASA) levels. The presentation concludes with a status on the current M&S organization s progress to date relative to the recommended IM&S implementation activity. The overall presentation was focused to provide, for the Verification, Validation,

Prill, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

QuakeSim 2.0

QuakeSim 2.0 improves understanding of earthquake processes by providing modeling tools and integrating model applications and various heterogeneous data sources within a Web services environment. QuakeSim is a multisource, synergistic, data-intensive environment for modeling the behavior of earthquake faults individually, and as part of complex interacting systems. Remotely sensed geodetic data products may be explored, compared with faults and landscape features, mined by pattern analysis applications, and integrated with models and pattern analysis applications in a rich Web-based and visualization environment. Integration of heterogeneous data products with pattern informatics tools enables efficient development of models. Federated database components and visualization tools allow rapid exploration of large datasets, while pattern informatics enables identification of subtle, but important, features in large data sets. QuakeSim is valuable for earthquake investigations and modeling in its current state, and also serves as a prototype and nucleus for broader systems under development. The framework provides access to physics-based simulation tools that model the earthquake cycle and related crustal deformation. Spaceborne GPS and Inter ferometric Synthetic Aperture (InSAR) data provide information on near-term crustal deformation, while paleoseismic geologic data provide longerterm information on earthquake fault processes. These data sources are integrated into QuakeSim's QuakeTables database system, and are accessible by users or various model applications. UAVSAR repeat pass interferometry data products are added to the QuakeTables database, and are available through a browseable map interface or Representational State Transfer (REST) interfaces. Model applications can retrieve data from Quake Tables, or from third-party GPS velocity data services; alternatively, users can manually input parameters into the models. Pattern analysis of GPS and seismicity data has proved useful for mid-term forecasting of earthquakes, and for detecting subtle changes in crustal deformation. The GPS time series analysis has also proved useful as a data-quality tool, enabling the discovery of station anomalies and data processing and distribution errors. Improved visualization tools enable more efficient data exploration and understanding. Tools provide flexibility to science users for exploring data in new ways through download links, but also facilitate standard, intuitive, and routine uses for science users and end users such as emergency responders.

Donnellan, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS1986

Bearing tester data compilation analysis, and reporting and bearing math modeling

Integration of heat transfer coefficients, modified to account for local vapor quality, into the 45 mm bearing model has been completed. The model has been evaluated with two flow rates and subcooled and saturated coolant. The evaluation showed that by increasing the flow from 3.6 to 7.0 lbs/sec the average ball temperature was decreased by 102 F, using a coolant temperature of -230 F. The average ball temperature was decreased by 63 F by decreasing the inlet coolant temperature from saturated to -230 F at a flow rate of 7.0 lbs/sec. Since other factors such as friction, cage heating, etc., affect bearing temperatures, the above bearing temperature effects should be considered as trends and not absolute values. The two phase heat transfer modification has been installed in the 57 mm bearing model and the effects on bearing temperatures have been evaluated. The average ball temperature was decreased by 60 F by increasing the flow rate from 4.6 to 9.0 lbs/sec for the subcooled case. By decreasing the inlet coolant temperature from saturation to -24 F, the average ball temperature was decreased 57 F for a flow rate of 9.0 lbs/sec. The technique of relating the two phase heat transfer coefficient to local vapor quality will be applied to the tester model and compared with test data.

Cody, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Aircraft Models and Integration Schemes for Interval Management in the TRACON

Reusable models of common elements for communication, computation, decision and control in air traffic management are necessary in order to enable simulation, analysis and assurance of emergent properties, such as safety and stability, for a given operational concept. Uncertainties due to faults, such as dropped messages, along with non-linearities and sensor noise are an integral part of these models, and impact emergent system behavior. Flight control algorithms designed using a linearized version of the flight mechanics will exhibit error due to model uncertainty, and may not be stable outside a neighborhood of the given point of linearization. Moreover, the communication mechanism by which the sensed state of an aircraft is fed back to a flight control system (such as an ADS-B message) impacts the overall system behavior; both due to sensor noise as well as dropped messages (vacant samples). Additionally simulation of the flight controller system can exhibit further numerical instability, due to selection of the integration scheme and approximations made in the flight dynamics. We examine the theoretical and numerical stability of a speed controller under the Euler and Runge-Kutta schemes of integration, for the Maintain phase for a Mid-Term (2035-2045) Interval Management (IM) Operational Concept for descent and landing operations. We model uncertainties in communication due to missed ADS-B messages by vacant samples in the integration schemes, and compare the emergent behavior of the system, in terms of stability, via the boundedness of the final system state. Any bound on the errors incurred by these uncertainties will play an essential part in a composable assurance argument required for real-time, flight-deck guidance and control systems,. Thus, we believe that the creation of reusable models, which possess property guarantees, such as safety and stability, is an innovative and essential requirement to assessing the emergent properties of novel airspace concepts of operation.

Neogi, Natasha↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Operations Concept for Integrated Model-Centric Engineering at JPL

As JPL's missions grow more complex, the need for improved systems engineering processes is becoming clear. Of significant promise in this regard is the move toward a more integrated and model-centric approach to mission conception, design, implementation and operations. The Integrated Model-Centric Engineering (IMCE) Initiative, now underway at JPL, seeks to lay the groundwork for these improvements. This paper will report progress on three fronts: articulating JPL's need for IMCE; characterizing the enterprise into which IMCE capabilities will be deployed; and constructing an operations concept for a flight project development in an integrated model-centric environment.

Bayer, Todd J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

On modeling of integrated communication and control systems

The mathematical modeling scheme proposed by Ray and Halevi (1988) for integrated communication and control systems is considered analytically, with an emphasis on the effect of introducing varying and distributed time delays to account for asynchronous time-division multiplexing in the communication part of the system. Ray and Halevi applied a state-transition concept to transform the original continuous-time model into a discrete-time model; the same approach was used by Kalman and Bertram (1959) to model various types of sampled data systems which are not subject to induced delays. The relationship between the two modeling schemes is explored, and it is shown that, although the Kalman-Bertram method has the advantage of a unified approach, it becomes inconvenient when varying delays appear in the control loop.

Liou, Luen-Woei↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS1994

International Space Station Alpha (ISSA) Integrated Traffic Model

The paper discusses the development process of the International Space Station Alpha (ISSA) Integrated Traffic Model which is a subsystem analyses tool utilized in the ISSA design analysis cycles. Fast-track prototyping of the detailed relationships between daily crew and station consumables, propellant needs, maintenance requirements, and crew rotation via spread sheets provides adequate bench marks to assess cargo vehicle design and performance characteristics.

Gates, Robert E.↗