Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “modeling discrepancy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

Vertical eddy heat fluxes from model simulations

Vertical eddy fluxes of heat are calculated from simulations with a variety of climate models, ranging from three-dimensional GCMs to a one-dimensional radiative-convective model. The models' total eddy flux in the lower troposphere is found to agree well with Hantel's analysis from observations, but in the mid and upper troposphere the models' values are systematically 30 percent to 50 percent smaller than Hantel's. The models nevertheless give very good results for the global temperature profile, and the reason for the discrepancy is unclear. The model results show that the manner in which the vertical eddy flux is carried is very sensitive to the parameterization of moist convection. When a moist adiabatic adjustment scheme with a critical value for the relative humidity of 100 percent is used, the vertical transports by large-scale eddies and small-scale convection on a global basis are equal: but when a penetrative convection scheme is used, the large-scale flux on a global basis is only about one-fifth to one-fourth the small-scale flux. Comparison of the model results with observations indicates that the results with the latter scheme are more realistic. However, even in this case, in mid and high latitudes the large and small-scale vertical eddy fluxes of heat are comparable in magnitude above the planetary boundary layer.

Stone, Peter H.↗

Accuracy and performance of LACIE crop development models

Of the three principal phenological crop calendar models evaluated for LACIE, Robertson's triquadratic model which predicts the rate of progression of wheat through its biological development, was selected. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures and day length are the input variables, and the principal output is a daily increment of development through six physiological growth stages. Because wheat corresponds differently to the environment during each growth stage, five different equations are required. The estimated and observed crop development data were compared in order to establish a measure of confidence in the model and to identify consistent discrepancies that would adversely affect LACIE operation. Although the model provided reliable estimates for various wheat growing regions of the world, it was found that there are still areas in need of further model improvement or development.

Woolley, S. K.↗

Vertical Drop Testing and Simulation of Anthropomorphic Test Devices

A series of 14 vertical impact tests were conducted using Hybrid III 50th Percentile and Hybrid II 50th Percentile Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) at NASA Langley Research Center. The purpose of conducting these tests was threefold: to compare and contrast the impact responses of Hybrid II and Hybrid III ATDs under two different loading conditions, to compare the impact responses of the Hybrid III configured with a nominal curved lumbar spine to that of a Hybrid III configured with a straight lumbar spine, and to generate data for comparison with predicted responses from two commercially available ATD finite element models. The two loading conditions examined were a high magnitude, short duration acceleration pulse, and a low magnitude, long duration acceleration pulse, each created by using different paper honeycomb blocks as pulse shape generators in the drop tower. The test results show that the Hybrid III results differ from the Hybrid II results more for the high magnitude, short duration pulse case. The comparison of the lumbar loads for each ATD configuration show drastic differences in the loads seen in the spine. The analytical results show major differences between the responses of the two finite element models. A detailed discussion of possible sources of the discrepancies between the two analytical models is also provided.

Polanco, Michael A.↗

Modeling of Triangular Lattice Space Structures with Curved Battens

Techniques for simulating an assembly process of lattice structures with curved battens were developed. The shape of the curved battens, the tension in the diagonals, and the compression in the battens were predicted for the assembled model. To be able to perform the assembly simulation, a cable-pulley element was implemented, and geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses were performed. Three types of finite element models were created from assembled lattice structures for studying the effects of design and modeling variations on the load carrying capability. Discrepancies in the predictions from these models were discussed. The effects of diagonal constraint failure were also studied.

Chen, Tzikang↗

Comparisons of Air Radiation Model with Shock Tube Measurements

This paper presents an assessment of the predictive capability of shock layer radiation model appropriate for NASA s Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle lunar return entry. A detailed set of spectrally resolved radiation intensity comparisons are made with recently conducted tests in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility at NASA Ames Research Center. The spectral range spanned from vacuum ultraviolet wavelength of 115 nm to infrared wavelength of 1400 nm. The analysis is done for 9.5-10.5 km/s shock passing through room temperature synthetic air at 0.2, 0.3 and 0.7 Torr. The comparisons between model and measurements show discrepancies in the level of background continuum radiation and intensities of atomic lines. Impurities in the EAST facility in the form of carbon bearing species are also modeled to estimate the level of contaminants and their impact on the comparisons. The discrepancies, although large is some cases, exhibit order and consistency. A set of tests and analyses improvements are proposed as forward work plan in order to confirm or reject various proposed reasons for the observed discrepancies.

Bose, Deepak↗

Nighttime OClO in the Winter Arctic Vortex

We show that a nighttime profile of OClO in the Arctic vortex during the winter of 2000 is overestimated, by nearly a factor of 2, using an isentropic trajectory model constrained by observed profiles of ClOx (ClO + 2 X ClOOCl) and BrO. Calculated abundances of nighttime OClO are shown to be sensitive to the abundance of BrOx (BrO + BrCl), details of the air parcel history during the most recent sunrise/sunset transitions, and the BrCl yield from the reaction BrO + ClO. Many uncertainties are considered, and the discrepancy between measured and modeled nighttime OClO appears to be robust. This discrepancy suggests that production of OClO occurs more slowly than implied by standard photochemistry. If the yield of BrCl from the reaction of BrO + ClO is increased from 7% (JPL 2002 value) to 11% (near the upper limit of the uncertainty), good agreement is found between measured and modeled nighttime OClO. This study highlights the importance of accurate knowledge of BrO + ClO reaction kinetics as well as air parcel trajectories for proper interpretation of nighttime OClO. These factors have a considerably smaller impact on the interpretation of OClO observations obtained during twilight (90(deg) <=SZA <= 92(deg)), when photolytic processes are still active.

chlorine activation↗

Meteoroid Bulk Density and Ceplecha Types

Determination of asteroid bulk density is an important aspect of NEO characterization, yet difficult to measure. As a fraction of meteoroids originate from asteroids (including some NEOs), a study of meteoroid bulk densities can potentially provide useful insights into the densities of NEOs and PHOs in lieu of mutual perturbations, satellite, or expensive spacecraft missions. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office characterizes the meteoroid environment for the purpose of spacecraft risk and operations. To accurately determine the risk, a distribution of meteoroid bulk densities are needed. This is not trivial to determine. If the particle survives to the ground the bulk density can be directly measured, however only the most dense particles land on the Earth. The next best approach is to model the meteor's ablation, which is not straightforward. Clear deceleration is necessary to do this and there are discrepancies in results between models. One approach to a distribution of bulk density is to use a measured proxy for the densities, then calibrate the proxy with known densities from meteorite falls, ablation modelling, and other sources. An obvious proxy choice is the Ceplecha type, K(sub B), thought to indicate the strength of a meteoroid. KB is frequented cited as a good proxy for meteoroid densities, but we find it is poorly correlated with density. However, a distinct split by dynamical type was seen with Jovian Tisserand parameter, T(sub J), with meteoroids from Halley Type comets (T(sub J less than 2 ) exhibiting much lower densities than those originating from Jupiter and asteroids (T(sub J greater than 2).

Blaauw, R. C.↗

Reexamination of METMAN, Recommendations on Enhancement of LCVG, and Development of New Concepts for EMU Heat Sink

METMAN is a 41-node transient metabolic computer code developed in 1970 and revised in 1989 by Lockheed Engineering and Sciences, Inc. This program relies on a mathematical model to predict the transient temperature distribution in a body influenced by metabolic heat generation and thermal interaction with the environment. A more complex 315-node model is also available that not only simulates the thermal response of a body exposed to a warm environment, but is also capable of describing the thermal response resulting from exposure to a cold environment. It is important to compare the two models for the prediction of the body's thermal response to metabolic heat generation and exposure to various environmental conditions. Discrepancies between the twi models may warrant an investigation of METMAN to ensure its validity for describing the body's thermal response in space environment. The Liquid Cooling and Ventilation Garment is a subsystem of the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU). This garment, worn under the pressure suit, contains the liquid cooling tubing and gas ventilation manifolds; its purpose is to alleviate or reduce thermal stress resulting from metabolic heat generation. There is renewed interest in modifying this garment through identification of the locus of maximum heat transfer at body-liquid cooled tubing interface. The sublimator is a vital component of the Primary Life Support System (PLSS) in the EMU. It acts as a heat sink to remove heat and humidity from the gas ventilating circuit and the liquid cooling loop of the LCVG. The deficiency of the sublimator is that the ice, used as the heat sink, sublimates into space. There is an effort to minimize water losses in the feedwater circuit of the EMU. This requires developing new concepts to design an alternative heat sink system. Efforts are directed to review and verify the heat transfer formulation of the analytical model employed by METMAN. A conceptual investigation of regenerative non-venting heat-sink subsystem for the EMU is recommended.

Karimi, Amir↗

A model of a comet coma with interstellar molecules in the nucleus

The coma of a comet is modeled assuming the icy nucleus contains interstellar molecules. This composition overcomes discrepancies between observation and earlier model predictions for CN, C2, C3, and NH2 abundances. It is found that the abundances of CN, C2, and C3-bearing compounds in the nucleus must be constrained to trace amounts in order to account for the observed column densities. NH3 also cannot be abundant by more than about 1%. The model gives good agreement with observed relative ranges of neutral species in the coma as well as with their observed relative intensity dependence on heliocentric distance. The size of the nucleus and the heliocentric ranges considered are relevant to comet Halley.

Biermann, L.↗

On the atmospheric photochemistry of nitric acid

Measurements of the temporal and spatial variations in HNO3, particularly those from the Nimbus 7 limb IR monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) satellite experiment, are compared to both a two-dimensional chemical/dynamical model and to chemistry/parcel trajectory analyses. Significant discrepancies are found between the observed and modeled variations in the winter season, especially in the polar night region. The study of the evolution of HNO3 suggests that an important source exists for this species in the high-latitude winter stratosphere that is not included in presently accepted photochemical schemes. Possible reactions to account for this discrepancy are explored.

Austin, J.↗

Model-Based Thermal System Design Optimization for the James Webb Space Telescope

Spacecraft thermal model validation is normally performed by comparing model predictions with thermal test data and reducing their discrepancies to meet the mission requirements. Based on thermal engineering expertise, the model input parameters are adjusted to tune the model output response to the test data. The end result is not guaranteed to be the best solution in terms of reduced discrepancy and the process requires months to complete. A model-based methodology was developed to perform the validation process in a fully automated fashion and provide mathematical bases to the search for the optimal parameter set that minimizes the discrepancies between model and data. The methodology was successfully applied to several thermal subsystems of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Global or quasiglobal optimal solutions were found and the total execution time of the model validation process was reduced to about two weeks. The model sensitivities to the parameters, which are required to solve the optimization problem, can be calculated automatically before the test begins and provide a library for sensitivity studies. This methodology represents a crucial commodity when testing complex, large-scale systems under time and budget constraints. Here, results for the JWST Core thermal system will be presented in detail.

Cataldo, Giuseppe↗

Developing Atmospheric Retrieval Methods for Direct Imaging Spectroscopy of Gas Giants in Reflected Light I: Methane Abundances and Basic Cloud Properties

Reflected light spectroscopy and photometry of cool, directly imaged extrasolar giant planets are expected to be performed in the next decade by space-based telescopes equipped with optical wavelength coronagraphs and integral field spectrographs, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST). We are developing a new atmospheric retrieval methodology to help assess the science return and inform the instrument design for such future missions, and ultimately interpret the resulting observations. Our retrieval technique employs an albedo model coupled with both a Markov chain Monte Carlo Ensemble Sampler (emcee) and a multimodal nested sampling algorithm (MultiNest) to map the posterior distribution. This combination makes the global evidence calculation more robust for any given model, and highlights possible discrepancies in the likelihood maps. Here we apply this methodology to simulated spectra of cool giant planets. As a proof-of-concept, our current atmospheric model contains 1 or 2 cloud layers, methane as a major absorber, and a H2-He background gas. This 6-to-9 parameter model is appropriate for Jupiter-like planets and can be easily expanded in the future. In addition to deriving the marginal likelihood distribution and confidence intervals for the model parameters, we perform model selection to determine the significance of methane and cloud detection as a function of expected signal-to-noise, in the presence of spectral noise correlations. After internal validation, the method is applied to realistic reflected-light spectra of Jupiter, Saturn, and HD 99492 c, a likely observing target. We find that the presence or absence of clouds and methane can be determined with high accuracy, while parameters uncertainties are model-dependent.

spectroscopy↗

Uncertainty of Observation Impact Estimation in an Adjoint Model Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoint models are often used to estimate the impact of different observations on short-term forecast skill. A common difficulty with the evaluation of short term forecast quality is the choice of verification fields. The use of self-analysis fields for verification is typical but incestuous, and introduces uncertainty due to biases and errors in the analysis field. In this study, an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is used to explore the uncertainty in adjoint model estimations of observation impact. The availability of the true state for verification in the OSSE framework in the form of the Nature Run allows calculation of the observation impact without the uncertainties present in self-analysis verification. These impact estimates are compared to estimates calculated using self-analysis verification. The Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) forecast model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is used with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) OSSE capability. The adjoint model includes moist processes, with total wet energy selected as the norm for evaluation of observation impacts. The results show that there are measurable but small discrepancies in the adjoint model estimation of observation impact. In general, observations of temperature and winds tend to have overestimated impacts with self-analysis verification, while observations of humidity and moisture-affected observations tend to have underestimated impacts. The small magnitude of the differences in impact estimates supports the robustness of the adjoint method of estimating observation impacts.

N C Prive↗

Charged particle measurements on a 30-CM diameter mercury ion engine thrust beam

Measurements of both thrust ions and charge exchange ions were made in the beam of a 30 centimeter diameter electron bombardment mercury ion thruster. A qualitative model is presented which describes magnitudes of charge exchange ion formation and motions of these ions in the weak electric field structure of the neutralized thrust beam plasma. Areas of agreement and discrepancy between observed and modeled charge exchange properties are discussed.

Sellen, J. M., Jr.↗

Identification and Computation of Individual Propeller Acoustics of the Joby Aviation Aircraft

The individual propeller sources of the Joby Aviation aircraft are separated using an order tracking filter on measurement data and computed using high- fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to quantify the relative contributions to the total noise. Computational results are verified against experimental data for hover and steady level flight at 60 knots and demonstrate very good agreement of both overall sound pressure level magnitude and directivity. The propeller source separation for hover shows good agreement between the methods except for the inboard propellers, and it is expected that the assumptions in the CFD model do not accurately capture the flight test condition. Both methods are able to separate the higher tonal levels generated by the tail propellers due to the aerodynamic interaction. Overall, considering the discrepancies between the CFD model and flight test, the agreement in Vold-Kalman-filtered results and prediction yields confidence that the separation method is successful.

eVTOL↗

Monthly Difference in the Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into Why January Is More Difficult to Predict than February

This study explores the monthly difference in the prediction skill of the ENSO response in boreal winter over North America reported in earlier studies. This monthly difference in the prediction skill is also revealed in atmosphere-ocean coupled and uncoupled NASA GEOS-5 model. Observational features of the ENSO response each month are analyzed using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) data.The results show that the prediction skill of the temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the ENSO response over the western North America tends to be greater in February whereas lower in January. Coupled and uncoupled models both put negative geopotential height anomaly over the northeast Pacific to the west of observation in January, causing that the precipitation anomalies to be off the coast instead of the coast. This discrepancy between observation and model is minimal in February. West coast precipitation anomalies are shown to be sensitive to the location of this anomalous height anomaly, but the precipitation response all the southern tier of states appear less sensitive to errors in the zonal wind response.

Lim, Young-Kwon↗

Surface Pressure Dependencies in the Geos-Chem-Adjoint System and the Impact of the GEOS-5 Surface Pressure on CO2 Model Forecast

In the GEOS-Chem Adjoint (GCA) system, the total (wet) surface pressure of the GEOS meteorology is employed as dry surface pressure, ignoring the presence of water vapor. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) research team has been evaluating the impact of the above discrepancy on the CO2 model forecast and the CO2 flux inversion. The JPL CMS research utilizes a multi-mission assimilation framework developed by the Multi-Mission Observation Operator (M2O2) research team at JPL extending the GCA system. The GCA-M2O2 framework facilitates mission-generic 3D and 4D-variational assimilations streamlining the interfaces to the satellite data products and prior emission inventories. The GCA-M2O2 framework currently integrates the GCA system version 35h and provides a dry surface pressure setup to allow the CO2 model forecast to be performed with the GEOS-5 surface pressure directly or after converting it to dry surface pressure.

Carbon Monitoring System↗

Surface Pressure Dependencies in the GEOS-Chem-Adjoint System and the Impact of the GEOS-5 Surface Pressure on CO2 Model Forecast

In the GEOS-Chem Adjoint (GCA) system, the total (wet) surface pressure of the GEOS meteorology is employed as dry surface pressure, ignoring the presence of water vapor. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) research team has been evaluating the impact of the above discrepancy on the CO2 model forecast and the CO2 flux inversion. The JPL CMS research utilizes a multi-mission assimilation framework developed by the Multi-Mission Observation Operator (M2O2) research team at JPL extending the GCA system. The GCA-M2O2 framework facilitates mission-generic 3D and 4D-variational assimilations streamlining the interfaces to the satellite data products and prior emission inventories. The GCA-M2O2 framework currently integrates the GCA system version 35h and provides a dry surface pressure setup to allow the CO2 model forecast to be performed with the GEOS-5 surface pressure directly or after converting it to dry surface pressure.

Lee, Meemong↗