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At least 181 records · Page 10

A Model Study of the Impact of Source Gas Changes on the Stratosphere for 1850-2100

The long term stratospheric impacts due to emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are investigated using an updated version of the Goddard two-dimensional (2D) model. Perturbation simulations with the ODSs, CO2, CH4, and N2O varied individually are performed to isolate the relative roles of these gases in driving stratospheric changes over the 1850-2100 time period. We also show comparisons with observations and the God- 40 dard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations for the time period 1970-2100 to illustrate that the 2D model captures the basic processes responsible for longterm stratospheric change. The 2D simulations indicate that prior to 1940, the 45 ozone increases due to CO2 and CH4 loading outpace the ozone losses due to increasing N2O and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) emissions, so that ozone reaches a broad maximum during the 1920s-1930s. This preceeds the significant ozone depletion during approx. 1960-2050 driven by the ODS loading. During the latter half of the 21st century as ODS emissions diminish, CO2, N2O, and CH4 loading will all have significant impacts on global total ozone based on the IPCC AIB (medium) scenario, with CO2 having the largest individual effect. Sensitivity tests illustrate that due to the strong chemical interaction between methane and chlorine, the CH4 impact on total ozone becomes significantly more positive with larger ODS loading. The model simulations also show that changes in stratospheric temperature, Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), and age of air during 1850-2100 are controlled mainly by the CO2 and ODS loading. The simulated acceleration of the BDC causes the age of air to decrease by approx. 1 year from 1860-2100. The corresponding photochemical lifetimes of N2O, CFCl3, CF2Cl2, and CCl4 decrease by 11-13% during 1960-2100 due to the acceleration of the BDC, with much smaller lifetime changes 4%) caused by changes in the photochemical loss rates.

Fleming, E. L.↗

A three-D circulation model study of the radiative-dynamic coupling within the stratosphere

The role of radiative transfer processes in the general circulation of the stratosphere was studied by comparing the thermal and dynamical structure of the stratosphere as simulated by two controlled numerical experiments performed with the aid of a spectral 3-dimensional quasi-geostrophic circulation model. In the first experiment, a detailed radiative transfer model is employed to treat the longwave radiative transfer in the stratosphere. In the second experiment, longwave radiative transfer is accounted for by employing the Newtonian cooling approximation. It is found that the exchange of longwave radiation between the troposphere and lower stratosphere has a net heating effect on the lower stratosphere. It is shown that this heating effect contributes partly to the maintenance of the warm high-latitude belt in the lower stratosphere during winter and spring seasons. The strong temperature dependence of the Newtonian cooling coefficient plays an important role in determining the zonal temperatures and has a significant influence on the transmissivity of stratosphere to propagating planetary scale waves.

Ramanathan, V.↗

A Modeling Study of the Latitudinal Variations in the Nighttime Plasma Temperatures of the Equatorial Topside Ionosphere During Northern Winter at Solar Maximum

Latitudinal variations in the nighttime plasma temperatures of the equatorial topside ionosphere during northern winter at solar maximum have been examined by using values modelled by SUPIM (Sheffield University Plasmasphere Ionosphere Model) and observations made by the DMSP F10 satellite at 21.00 LT near 800 km altitude. The modelled values confirm that the crests observed near 15 deg latitude in the winter hemisphere are due to adiabatic heating and the troughs observed near the magnetic equator are due to adiabatic cooling as plasma is transported along the magnetic field lines from the summer hemisphere to the winter hemisphere. The modelled values also confirm that the interhemispheric plasma transport needed to produce the required adiabatic heating/cooling can be induced by F-region neutral winds. It is shown that the longitudinal variations in the observed troughs and crests arise mainly from the longitudinal variations in the magnetic meridional wind. At longitudes where the magnetic declination angle is positive the eastward geographic zonal wind combines with the northward (summer hemisphere to winter hemisphere) geographic meridional wind to enhance the northward magnetic meridional wind. This leads to deeper troughs and enhanced crests. At longitudes where the magnetic declination angle is negative the eastward geographic zonal wind opposes the northward geographic meridional wind and the trough depth and crest values are reduced. The characteristic features of the troughs and crests depend, in a complicated manner, on the field-aligned flow of plasma, thermal conduction, and inter-gas heat transfer. At the latitudes of the troughs/crests, the low/high plasma temperatures lead to increased/decreased plasma concentrations.

Bailey, G. J.↗

Observational and modeling study of the maintenance of short-term subtropical wind maxima in the Southern Hemisphere during SOP-1, FGGE

The findings of the earlier observational work of Hurrel and Vincent (1990) are substantiated using a recent version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order general circulation model. The observed heating and subtropical zonal flow structure over the South Pacific is reproduced by a control integration with full model physics, for the period of 6-20 January 1979. A subtropical westerly maximum observed over the central South Pacific is found to be highly correlated to enhancements of poleward-moving divergent outflow from tropical heat sources. The divergent meridional flow accounted for much of the total ageostrophic meridional wind in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics, and, consequently, resulted in strong Coriolis accelerations in the entrance regions westerly maxima.

Hurrell, James W.↗

Model study of atmospheric transport using carbon 14 and strontium 90 as inert tracers

The observed excess carbon 14 in the atmosphere from 1963 to 1970 provides unique, but limited, data up to an altitude of about 35 km for testing the air motions calculated by 11 multidimensional atmospheric models. Strontium 90 measurements in the atmosphere from 1964 to mid-1967 provide data that have more latitude coverage than those of carbon 14 and are useful for testing combined models of air motions and aerosol settling. Model calculations for carbon 14 begin at October 1963, 9 months after the conclusion of the nuclear bomb tests; the initial conditions for the calculations are derived by three methods, each of which agrees fairly well with measured carbon 14 in October 1963 and each of which has widely different values in regions of the stratosphere where there were no carbon 14 measurements. The model results are compared to the stratospheric measurements, not as if the observed data were absolute standards, but in an effort to obtain new insight about the models and about the atmosphere. The measured carbon 14 vertical profiles at 31 deg N are qualitatively different from all of the models; the measured vertical profiles show a maximum mixing ratio in the altitude range of 20 to 25 km from October 1963 through July 1966, but all modeled profiles show mixing ratio maxima that increase in altitude from 20 km in October 1963 to greater than 40 km by April 1966. Both carbon 14 and strontium 90 data indicate that the models differ substantially among themselves with respect to stratosphere-troposphere exchange rate, but the modeled carbon 14 stratospheric residence times indicate that differences among the models are small with respect to transport rate between the middle stratosphere and the lower stratosphere. Strontium 90 data indicate that aerosol settling is important up to at least 35 km altitude. Relative to the measurements, about three quarters of the models transport carbon 14 from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere too rapidly, and all models with all three sets of initial conditions appear to sweep carbon 14 out of the midstratosphere (above 28 km) much more slowly than was observed from 1963 to 1970. Atmospheric dynamicists should seriously consider that the carbon 14 measurements imply with respect to advection in the midstratosphere.

Kinnison, D. E.↗

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Roads, John↗

Two-dimensional model studies of the effect of supersonic aircraft operations on the stratospheric ozone content

For a fleet of 250 aircraft, the change in the ozone column is predicted to be very close to zero; in fact, the ozone overburden may actually increase as a result of show that above 25 to 30 km the ozone abundance decreases via catalytic destruction, but at lower heights it increases, mainly as a result of coupling with odd hydrogen species. Water vapor released in the engine exhaust is predicted to cause ozone decreases; for the hypothetical engines used in the study, the total column ozone changes due to water vapor emission largely offset the predicted ozone increases due to NOx emission. The actual effect of water vapor may be less than calculated because present models do not include thermal feedback. Feedback refers to the cooling effect of additional water vapor that would tend to slow the NOx reactions which destroy ozone.

Whitten, R. C.↗

A second-order modeling study of confined swirling flow

A numerical study of a confined strong swirling flow is presented. Computations are performed using a differential second-moment closure. The effect of inlet dissipation rate on calculated mean and turbulence fields is investigated. Two pressure-strain models with various model constants are examined to demonstrate their influences on the predicted results. Finally, comparison of the differential second-moment calculation is made with algebraic second-moment results to determine a better suited model for complex swirling flows.

Nikjooy, M.↗

A model study of the diurnal variation of mesospheric O3

Diurnal variation of ozone between 50 to 80 km is studied for both oxygen-only and O-N-H-C atmospheres. The temporal variation of ozone density along the ray path as well as that due to the change in the local zenith angle are included in the model computations. The difference between cases with and without the temporal variation of ozone density, is examined. It is found that the inclusion of this variation reduces the ozone concentration at all altitudes. In addition, the greatest effect on the ozone concentration is during sunrise and sunset.

Wang, P. H.↗

Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Change to Temperature Trends in the Stratosphere: A Chemistry/Climate Model Study

Long-term changes in greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, are expected to lead to a warming of the troposphere and a cooling of the stratosphere. We examine the cooling of the stratosphere and compare the contributions greenhouse gases and ozone change for the decades between 1980 and 2000. We use 150 years of simulation done with our coupled chemistry/climate model (GEOS 4 GCM with GSFC CTM chemistry) to calculate temperatures and constituents fiom,1950 through 2100. The contributions of greenhouse gases and ozone to temperature change are separated by a time-series analysis using a linear trend term throughout the period to represent the effects of greenhouse gases and an equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) term to represent the effects of ozone change. The temperature changes over the 150 years of the simulation are dominated by the changes in greenhouse gases. Over the relatively short period (approx. 20 years) of ozone decline between 1980 and 2000 changes in ozone are competitive with changes in greenhouse gases. The changes in temperature induced by the ozone change are comparable to, but smaller than, those of greenhouse gases in the upper stratosphere (1-3 hPa) at mid latitudes. The ozone term dominates the temperature change near both poles with a negative temperature change below about 3-5 hPa and a positive change above. At mid latitudes in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above about 1 hPa) and in the middle stratosphere (3 to 70 ma), the greenhouse has term dominates. From about 70 hPa down to the tropopause at mid latitudes, cooling due to ozone changes is the largest influence on temperature. Over the 150 years of the simulation, the change in greenhouse gases is the most important contributor to temperature change. Ozone caused a perturbation that is expected to reverse over the coming decades. We show a model simulation of the expected temperature change over the next two decades (2006-2026). The simulation shows a crossover between lower atmospheric heating and upper atmospheric cooling that is located at about 90 hPa in the tropics and 30-40 hPa in the polar regions. This results from the combination of continuing increases in greehouse gases and recovery from ozone depletion.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Application of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry measurements to observational and modeling studies of the low-frequency upper ocean mass and heat circulation in the tropical Pacific

The main purpose of the proposed work is to describe the seasonal and interannual variability of the upper ocean mass and heat transport in the tropical Pacific and to understand the mechanisms responsible for these transports. This will be done through a combination of experimental and modeling approaches. Remotely sensed sea level and derived current, observed on the basin scale, will be compared, analyzed, and combined with routine and enhanced in situ measurements of thermal and current field, as well as with model solutions forced by satellite-derived estimates of momentum and heat fluxes. The practical scientific rationale for this work stems from the unique data sets collected by (or easily available to) the investigator's team and from the team members' complementary backgrounds (physical oceanography and meteorology) and expertise (in situ and satellite-observation analysis and numerical ocean modeling).

Picaut, Joel↗

Experimental and Modeling Study of the Burning of an Ethanol Droplet in Microgravity

The microgravity ethanol droplet combustion experiments were performed aboard the STS-94/MSL-1 Shuttle mission within the Fiber-Supported Droplet Combustion-2 (FSDC-2) program. The burning histories and flame standoffs for pure ethanol and ethanol/water droplets were obtained from the images recorded with two 8 mm videocameras. The obtained results show that average gasification rate is related to the initial droplet size in a manner similar to n-alkanes and methanol and consistent with the results of Hara and Kumagai and the data taken recently in the NASA-Lewis 2.2 s droptower. A transient, moving finite-element chemically reacting flow model applied previously to sphero-symmetric combustion of methanol, methanol/water, n-alkane, and n-alkane binary mixture droplets was adopted for the problem of ethanol droplet combustion. The model includes detailed description of gas-phase reaction chemistry and transport, a simplified description of liquid phase transport, and non-luminous radiative heat transfer. Gas-phase chemistry was described with the detailed reaction mechanism of Norton and Dryer, which consists of 142 reversible elementary reactions of 33 species. Another recently published reaction mechanism of high-temperature ethanol oxidation was also considered. The model predictions were found to compare favorably with the experimental data. The model analysis also indicates that water condensation in the case of ethanol has smaller effect on average droplet gasification rate as compared with previously studied methanol cases. This effect is explained by non-ideal (azeotropic) behavior of binary ethanol-water mixtures. Further analysis of computational results and ethanol droplet radiative extinction behavior will be discussed.

Kazakov, Andrei↗

Thermal dynamic modeling study

Some thermal dynamic requirements associated with the space shuttle vehicle are reviewed. Pertinent scaling laws are discussed and recommendations are offered regarding the need for conducting reduced-scale dynamic tests of major components at elevated temperatures. Items considered are the development and interpretation of thermal dynamic structural scaling laws, the identification of major related problem areas and a presentation of viable model fabrication, instrumentation, and test procedures.

Ojalvo, I. U.↗

Neutral winds and electric fields from model studies using reduced ionograms

A relationship between the vertical component of the ion velocity and electron density profiles derived from reduced ionograms is developed. Methods for determining the horizontal components of the neutral winds and electric fields by using this relationship and making use of the variations of the inclinations and declinations of the earth's magnetic field are presented. The effects that electric fields have on the neutral wind calculations are estimated to be small but not second order. Seasonal and latitudinal variations of the calculated neutral winds are presented. From the calculated neutral winds a new set of neutral pressure gradients is determined. The new pressure gradients are compared with those generated from several static neutral atmospheric models. Sensitivity factors relating the pressure gradients and neutral winds are calculated and these indicate that mode coupling and harmonic generation are important to studies which assume linearized theories.

Baran, D. E.↗

A Sublimation Model for the Martian Polar Swiss-Cheese Features. Observational and Modeling Studies of the South Polar Residual Cap

In their pioneering work Leighton and Murray argued that the Mars atmosphere, which is 95 percent CO2 today, is controlled by vapor equilibrium with a much larger polar reservoir of solid CO2. Here we argue that the polar reservoir is small and cannot function as a long-term buffer to the more massive atmosphere. Our work is based on modeling the circular depressions (Swiss-cheese features) in the south polar cap. We argue that a solid CO2 layer approximately 8 meters thick is being etched away to reveal water ice underneath. Preliminary results from the THEMIS (Thermal Emission Imaging System) instrument seem to confirm our model.

Byrne, Shane↗

Biological-Physical Coupling in the Gulf of Maine: Satellite and Model Studies of Phytoplankton Variability

The goals of this project were to acquire, process, QC, archive and analyze SeaWiFS chlorophyll fields over the Gulf of Maine and Scotia Shelf region. The focus of the analysis effort was to calculate and quantify seasonality and interannual. variability of SeaWiFS-measured phytoplankton biomass in the study area and compare these to physical forcing and hydrography. An additional focus within this effort was on regional differences within the heterogeneous biophysical regions of the Gulf of Maine / Scotia Shelf. Overall goals were approached through the combined use of SeaWiFS and AVHRR data and the development of a coupled biology-physical numerical model.

Thomas, Andrew C.↗