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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative datasets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student-t process regression. We apply Student-t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via coloring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics, and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Seasonal Patterns and Remote Spectral Estimation of Canopy Chemistry Across the Oregon Transect

We examined seasonal changes in canopy chemical concentrations and content in conifer forests growing along a climate gradient in western Oregon, as part of the Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research (OTTER) study. The chemical variables were related to seasonal patterns of growth and production. Statistical comparisons of chemical variables with data collected from two different airborne remote-sensing platforms were also carried out. Total nitrogen (N) concentrations in foliage varied significantly both seasonally and among sites; when expressed as content in the forest canopy, nitrogen varied to a much greater extent and was significantly related to aboveground net primary production (r = 0.99). Chlorophyll and free amino acid concentrations varied more strongly than did total N and may have reflected changes in physiological demands for N. Large variations in starch concentrations were measured from pre- to post-budbreak in all conifer sites. Examination of remote-sensing data from two different airborne instruments suggests the potential for remote measurement of some canopy chemicals. Multivariate analysis of high-resolution spectral data in the near infrared region indicated significant correlations between spectral signals and N concentration and canopy N content; the correlation with canopy N content was stronger and was probably associated in part with water absorption features of the forest canopy. The spectral bands that were significantly correlated with lignin concentration and content were similar to bands selected in the other laboratory and airborne studies; starch concentrations were not significantly related to spectral reflectance data. Strong relationships between the spectral position of specific reflectance features in the visible region and chlorophyll were also found.

Matson, Pamela↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Exploratory Approach Using Regression and Machine Learning in the Analysis of Mass Absorption Cross Section of Black Carbon Aerosols: Model Development and Evaluation

Mass absorption cross-section of black carbon (MAC BC ) describes the absorptive cross-section per unit mass of black carbon, and is, thus, an essential parameter to estimate the radiative forcing of black carbon. Many studies have sought to estimate MAC BC from a theoretical perspective, but these studies require the knowledge of a set of aerosol properties, which are difficult and/or labor-intensive to measure. We therefore investigate the ability of seven data analytical approaches (including different multivariate regressions, support vector machine, and neural networks) in predicting MAC BC for both ambient and biomass burning measurements. Our model utilizes multi-wavelength light absorption and scattering as well as the aerosol size distributions as input variables to predict MAC BC across different wavelengths. We assessed the applicability of the proposed approaches in estimating MAC BC using different statistical metrics (such as coefficient of determination (R 2 ), mean square error (MSE), fractional error, and fractional bias). Overall, the approaches used in this study can estimate MAC BC appropriately, but the prediction performance varies across approaches and atmospheric environments. Based on an uncertainty evaluation of our models and the empirical and theoretical approaches to predict MAC BC , we preliminarily put forth support vector machine (SVM) as a recommended data analytical technique for use. We provide an operational tool built with the approaches presented in this paper to facilitate this procedure for future users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Riders’ perceptions towards transit bus electrification: Evidence from Salt Lake City, Utah

While battery electric buses (BEBs) can lead to energy savings and reduced emissions, BEB adoption is developing slowly. Although BEBs offer quieter operations, better acceleration, and no smell of diesel or gas fumes, little focus has been placed on the user’s perspective. Here, this study investigates bus riders’ preferences toward BEBs. To achieve these objectives, a survey was designed and administered to solicit riders’ typical travel behaviors and patterns as well as preferences and opinions about BEBs’ performance in terms of emissions and noise. Statistical analysis showed that several factors influence rider perceptions towards transit bus electrification that include trip purpose, attitudes towards environmental issues and environmental impacts of BEBs, and certain non-instrumental ride factors such as ride comfort and social image. A better understanding of the importance of electrification to transit riders can help transit service providers adjust their marketing decisions and their systemwide operations to accommodate preferences towards BEBs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1986

A variational assimilation method for satellite and conventional data: Development of basic model for diagnosis of cyclone systems

A three-dimensional diagnostic model for the assimilation of satellite and conventional meteorological data is developed with the variational method of undetermined multipliers. Gridded fields of data from different type, quality, location, and measurement source are weighted according to measurement accuracy and merged using least squares criteria so that the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation are satisfied. The model is used to compare multivariate variational objective analyses with and without satellite data with initial analyses and the observations through criteria that were determined by the dynamical constraints, the observations, and pattern recognition. It is also shown that the diagnoses of local tendencies of the horizontal velocity components are in good comparison with the observed patterns and tendencies calculated with unadjusted data. In addition, it is found that the day-night difference in TOVS biases are statistically different (95% confidence) at most levels. Also developed is a hybrid nonlinear sigma vertical coordinate that eliminates hydrostatic truncation error in the middle and upper troposphere and reduces truncation error in the lower troposphere. Finally, it is found that the technique used to grid the initial data causes boundary effects to intrude into the interior of the analysis a distance equal to the average separation between observations.

Achtemeier, G. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel Machine Learning Method for Surface PM2.5 Estimations from Geostationary Satellites

Particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of less or equal to 2.5 μm, known as PM , affects human health as it penetrates the respiratory system. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measures the atmospheric concentration of PM using air quality monitors stationed throughout the Continental United States (CONUS). Such measurements are points on a spatial domain and therefore, might not be representative of the air quality at nearby areas considering that the composition of the atmosphere is highly variable from place to place. Satellite based AOD permits a spatially uniform means of estimating PM and new geostationary satellites provide high temporal and spatial resolution estimation of AOD. However, the concentration of PM is non-linearly dependent on other atmospheric parameters that include relative humidity, temperature, and height of the planetary boundary layer. This information may be estimated at similar spatial and temporal resolutions as AOD from numerical modeling such as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model which resolves near real-time atmospheric conditions over the CONUS. The estimation of PM concentration is a multi-parametric problem that considers the effect of temporal dependencies among the different parameters. Deep learning approaches are appropriate for such complex estimation problems as they intrinsically capture relations among multiple non-linear parameters. This study compares deep-learning methods to traditional regression analysis to demonstrate the capabilities of these methods in predicting PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, a novel ensemble learning approach is employed to identify scientific processes that could further improve the estimation of PM concentration. Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which are suitable for multivariate time series estimation problems as they are capable of learning long-term dependencies, individual models are created for each EPA station and trained on the aforementioned dataset collocated over each station. Individual station models are merged if the model's performance is improved by reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. This ensemble training method ultimately reduces the RMSE value. Evaluation of these results provide insights into physical processes and related observable parameters that may contribute to PM concentrations. Identified parameters evaluated to be statistically different between the merged and unmerged models are expected to improve overall performance. These new parameters are then utilized for reevaluation of the deep learning methods with an extreme gradient boosting model with an RMSE of 5.5 providing the best results.

George Priftis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Partial Least Squares, Experimental Design, and Near-Infrared Spectrophotometry for the Remote Quantification of Nitric Acid Concentration and Temperature

Near-infrared spectrophotometry and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were evaluated to create a pleasantly simple yet effective approach for measuring HNO3 concentration with varying temperature levels. A training set, which covered HNO3 concentrations (0.1–8 M) and temperature (10–40 °C), was selected using a D-optimal design to minimize the number of samples required in the calibration set for PLSR analysis. The top D-optimal-selected PLSR models had root mean squared error of prediction values of 1.4% for HNO 3 and 4.0% for temperature. The PLSR models built from spectra collected on static samples were validated against flow tests including HNO 3 concentration and temperature gradients to test abnormal conditions (e.g., bubbles) and the model performance between sample points in the factor space. Based on cross-validation and prediction modeling statistics, the designed near-infrared absorption approach can provide remote, quantitative analysis of HNO 3 concentration and temperature for production-oriented applications in facilities where laser safety challenges would inhibit the implementation of other optical techniques (e.g., Raman spectroscopy) and in which space, time, and/or resources are constrained. The experimental design approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the training set and maintained or improved PLSR model performance, which makes the described chemometric approach more amenable to nuclear field applications.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intrinsic Kinetics of Polyethylene Terephthalate Pyrolysis via Micropyrolysis and Multivariate Chromatographic Analysis

This study provides an in-depth investigation of the primary decomposition of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) via pyrolysis, employing an experimental-analytic workflow that integrates design of experiments (DoE), micropyrolysis coupled with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC), and multivariate data analysis to verify intrinsic kinetic conditions and elucidate evolving product distributions for mapping key reaction pathways. Peaks that could not be identified using commercial spectral libraries were assigned using Mass Frontier simulations, enabling the identification of divinyl terephthalate, ethyl vinyl terephthalate, and 2-(benzoyloxy)ethyl vinyl terephthalate. A polar×polar (non-orthogonal) column set tailored for the detection of carboxylic acids enhanced the quantification of benzoic acid, 4-vinylbenzoic acid, 4-ethylbenzoic acid, and methylbenzoic acid by up to 6-fold relative to an orthogonal column combination (non-polar×mid-polar). Moreover, pyrolysis variables were systematically evaluated using a Box- Behnken design (BBD), encompassing pyrolysis temperature (500−600 °C), sample weight (50−150 μg), and carrier gas flow rate (100−300 mL min −1 ). Among these, pyrolysis temperature was the only statistically significant factor influencing product yields, ranging from 58.78 to 84.26 wt %. In contrast, neither the sample weight nor the carrier gas flow rate had a significant effect on product yields within the evaluated experimental space. At 600 °C, the major pyrolysis products were benzoic acid (up to 20.20 ± 1.46 wt %) and CO 2 (up to 21.28 ± 1.46 wt %), which can be produced through decarboxylation reactions. These findings underscore the critical importance of selecting appropriate analytical columns for the accurate quantification of heteroatomcontaining products such as carboxylic acids, which may otherwise be underestimated or undetected due to their reactivity with the stationary phase of non-polar and mid-polar columns, as well as other GC components. They also highlight the importance of selecting pyrolysis conditions for investigating the primary decomposition of PET under an isothermal kinetically limited regime.

aromatic compounds↗
NASA NTRS2022

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Small angle scattering of diblock copolymers profiled by machine learning

We outline a machine learning strategy for quantitively determining the conformation of AB-type diblock copolymers with excluded volume effects using small angle scattering. Complemented by computer simulations, a correlation matrix connecting conformations of different copolymers according to their scattering features is established on the mathematical framework of a Gaussian process, a multivariate extension of the familiar univariate Gaussian distribution. We show that the relevant conformational characteristics of copolymers can be probabilistically inferred from their coherent scattering cross sections without any restriction imposed by model assumptions. This work not only facilitates the quantitative structural analysis of copolymer solutions but also provides the reliable benchmarking for the related theoretical development of scattering functions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2004

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Review of Bayesian Networks for Spatial Data

We report Bayesian networks are a popular class of multivariate probabilistic models as they allow for the translation of prior beliefs about conditional dependencies between variables to be easily encoded into their model structure. Due to their widespread usage, they are often applied to spatial data for inferring properties of the systems under study and also generating predictions for how these systems may behave in the future. We review published research on methodologies for representing spatial data with Bayesian networks and also summarize the application areas for which Bayesian networks are employed in the modeling of spatial data. We find that a wide variety of perspectives are taken, including a GIS-centric focus on efficiently generating geospatial predictions, a statistical focus on rigorously constructing graphical models controlling for spatial correlation, as well as a range of problem-specific heuristics for mitigating the effects of spatial correlation and dependency arising in spatial data analysis. Special attention is also paid to potential future directions for integration of Bayesian networks with spatial processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2009

An Update on Mortality in the U.S. Astronaut Corps: 1959-2009

Although it has now been over 50 years since mankind first ventured into space, the long-term health impacts of human space flight remain largely unknown. Identifying factors that affect survival and prognosis among those who participate in space flight is vitally important, as the era of commercial space flight approaches and NASA prepares for missions to Mars. The Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health is a prospective study designed to examine trends in astronaut morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this analysis was to describe and explore predictors of overall and cause-specific mortality among individuals selected for the U.S. astronaut corps. All U.S. astronauts (n=321), regardless of flight status, were included in this analysis. Death certificate searches were conducted to ascertain vital status and cause of death through April 2009. Data were collected from medical records and lifestyle questionnaires. Multivariable Cox regression modeling was used to calculate the mortality hazard associated with embarking on space flight, adjusted for sex, race, and age at selection. Between 1959 and 2009, there were 39 (12.1%) deaths. Of these deaths, 18 (42.2%) were due to occupational accidents; 7 (17.9%) were due to other accidents; 6 (15.4%) were attributable to cancer; 6 (15.4%) resulted from cardiovascular/circulatory diseases; and 2 (5.1%) were from other causes. Participation in space flight did not significantly increase mortality hazard over time (adjusted hazard ratio=0.57; 95% confidence interval=0.26-1.26. Because our results are based on a small sample size, future research that includes payload specialists, other space flight participants, and international crew members is warranted to maximize statistical power.

Amirian, E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications

This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1988

An adaptive identification and control scheme for large space structures

A unified identification and control scheme capable of achieving space at form performance objectives under nominal or failure conditions is described. Preliminary results are also presented, showing that the methodology offers much promise for effective robust control of large space structures. The control method is a multivariable, adaptive, output predictive controller called Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC uses a state space model and input reference trajectories of set or tracking points to adaptively generate optimum commands. For a fixed model, MPC processes commands with great efficiency, and is also highly robust. A key feature of MPC is its ability to control either nonminimum phase or open loop unstable systems. As an output controller, MPC does not explicitly require full state feedback, as do most multivariable (e.g., Linear Quadratic) methods. Its features are very useful in LSS operations, as they allow non-collocated actuators and sensors. The identification scheme is based on canonical variate analysis (CVA) of input and output data. The CVA technique is particularly suited for the measurement and identification of structural dynamic processes - that is, unsteady transient or dynamically interacting processes such as between aerodynamics and structural deformation - from short, noisy data. CVA is structured so that the identification can be done in real or near real time, using computationally stable algorithms. Modeling LSS dynamics in 1-g laboratories has always been a major impediment not only to understanding their behavior in orbit, but also to controlling it. In cases where the theoretical model is not confirmed, current methods provide few clues concerning additional dynamical relationships that are not included in the theoretical models. CVA needs no a priori model data, or structure; all statistically significant dynamical states are determined using natural, entropy-based methods. Heretofore, a major limitation in applying adaptive controllers to LSS problems has been the requirement for accurate models. We feel that MPC coupled with the CVA identification scheme will resolve this limitation. The results are based on research performed under an SBIR grant, administered by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.

Carroll, J. V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Multivariate Time Series Prediction Techniques for Emulating Noah-LSM Soil Moisture Outputs

Land surface models are crucial tools for many earth science applications including numerical weather prediction, water resource and crop monitoring, and climatological analysis. Given a set of atmospheric forcings, seasonal data, and static parameters, models like Noah-LSM solve for land surface quantities including skin temperature, sensible heat flux, and soil moisture. While these calculations are theoretically robust, they are often computationally expensive. Since artificial neural networks (ANNs) are universal function approximators, they can learn to emulate the output of a deterministic numerical model given a time series of input forcings, with the learned ANN having substantially shorter execution time. The ANN could efficiently parameterize other models, generate ensembles, and provide first-guess inputs for retrievals. As such, with the goal of developing a model that efficiently mimics the output of Noah-LSM given NLDAS2 forcings on a region covering much of the central US, we examine and compare several neural network architectures for the multi-horizon multivariate time series forecasting problem. Recent literature includes a diverse set of approaches including autoregressive architectures like LSTM and GRU, parametric and non-parametric statistical predictors (ForecastNet and MQRNN), self-attention (LSTM-attention-LSTM), and temporal convovlution (DeepTCN). We implement several of these models for the Noah-LSM prediction task, highlighting the features and challenges for each and providing practical insight on the training process.

Mitchell Dodson↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Alternative Flight Software Trigger Paradigm: Applying Multivariate Logistic Regression to Sense Trigger Conditions using Inaccurate or Scarce Information

In late 2014, NASA will fly the Orion capsule on a Delta IV-Heavy rocket for the Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) mission. For EFT-1, the Orion capsule will be flying with a new GPS receiver and new navigation software. Given the experimental nature of the flight, the flight software must be robust to the loss of GPS measurements. Once the high-speed entry is complete, the drogue parachutes must be deployed within the proper conditions to stabilize the vehicle prior to deploying the main parachutes. When GPS is available in nominal operations, the vehicle will deploy the drogue parachutes based on an altitude trigger. However, when GPS is unavailable, the navigated altitude errors become excessively large, driving the need for a backup barometric altimeter. In order to increase overall robustness, the vehicle also has an alternate method of triggering the drogue parachute deployment based on planet-relative velocity if both the GPS and the barometric altimeter fail. However, this velocity-based trigger results in large altitude errors relative to the targeted altitude. Motivated by this challenge, this paper demonstrates how logistic regression may be employed to automatically generate robust triggers based on statistical analysis. Logistic regression is used as a ground processor pre-flight to develop a classifier. The classifier would then be implemented in flight software and executed in real-time. This technique offers excellent performance even in the face of highly inaccurate measurements. Although the logistic regression-based trigger approach will not be implemented within EFT-1 flight software, the methodology can be carried forward for future missions and vehicles.

Smith, Kelly M.↗