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At least 181 records · Page 10

Fortnightly Earth Rotation, Ocean Tides, and Mantle Anelasticity

Sustained accurate measurements of earth rotation are one of the prime goals of Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS). We here concentrate on the fortnightly (Mf) tidal component of earth-rotation data to obtain new results concerning anelasticity of the mantle at this period. The study comprises three parts: (1) a new determination of the Mf component of polar motion and length-of-day from a multi-decade time series of space-geodetic data; (2) the use of the polar-motion determination as one constraint in the development of a hydrodynamic ocean model of the Mf tide; and (3) the use of these results to place new constraints on mantle anelasticity. Our model of the Mf ocean tide assimilates more than fourteen years of altimeter data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites. The polar motion data, plus tide-gauge data and independent altimeter data, give useful additional information, with only the polar motion putting constraints on tidal current velocities. The resulting ocean-tide model, plus the dominant elastic body tide, leaves a small residual in observed length-of-day caused by mantle anelasticity. The inferred effective tidal 0 of the anelastic body tide is 90 and is in line with a omega-alpha frequency dependence with alpha in the range 0.2--0.3.

Ray, Richard D.↗

NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project: A Multi-Component Analysis System for Carbon-Cycle Research and Monitoring

The importance of greenhouse gas increases for climate motivates NASA s observing strategy for CO2 from space, including the forthcoming Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) mission. Carbon cycle monitoring, including attribution of atmospheric concentrations to regional emissions and uptake, requires a robust modeling and analysis infrastructure to optimally extract information from the observations. NASA's Carbon-Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project (FPP) is a prototype for such analysis, combining a set of unique tools to facilitate analysis of atmospheric CO2 along with fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere or ocean. NASA's analysis system is unique, in that it combines information and expertise from the land, oceanic, and atmospheric branches of the carbon cycle and includes some estimates of uncertainty. Numerous existing space-based missions provide information of relevance to the carbon cycle. This study describes the components of the FPP framework, assessing the realism of computed fluxes, thus providing the basis for research and monitoring applications. Fluxes are computed using data-constrained terrestrial biosphere models and physical ocean models, driven by atmospheric observations and assimilating ocean-color information. Use of two estimates provides a measure of uncertainty in the fluxes. Along with inventories of other emissions, these data-derived fluxes are used in transport models to assess their consistency with atmospheric CO2 observations. Closure is achieved by using a four-dimensional data assimilation (inverse) approach that adjusts the terrestrial biosphere fluxes to make them consistent with the atmospheric CO2 observations. Results will be shown, illustrating the year-to-year variations in land biospheric and oceanic fluxes computed in the FPP. The signals of these surface-flux variations on atmospheric CO2 will be isolated using forward modeling tools, which also incorporate estimates of transport error. The results will be discussed in the context of interannual variability of observed atmospheric CO2 distributions.

Pawson, S.↗

An evaluation of the National Meteorological Center weekly hindcast of upper-ocean temperature along the eastern Pacific equator in January 1992

The upper-ocean temperature distribution along the Pacific equator from 139 to 103 deg W was observed in January 1992 with temperature profiles recorded from a ship and inferred from an ocean general circulation model calculation involving data assimilation (i.e., hindcast). An El Nino episode was in progress. The l00-m-thick mixed layer depth, the mixed-layer temperature, and the depth-averaged temperature below the thermocline were similar in both data products. Considerable differences occurred in the representation of the 15-25 C thermocline, such as the depth-averaged temperatures above and below the 20 C isotherm, the east-west slope of the 20 C isotherm, and a 1000-km-wide depression. The longitudinal-averaged root-mean-square difference between the hindcast and observed depths of the center of the thermocline was 17 m. Most of the disparities could be attributed to a high wavenumber transient event that the model-based assimilation system was not intended to resolve.

Halpern, David↗

Evaluation of Assimilated SMOS Soil Moisture Data for US Cropland Soil Moisture Monitoring

Remotely sensed soil moisture data can provide timely, objective and quantitative crop soil moisture information with broad geospatial coverage and sufficiently high resolution observations collected throughout the growing season. This paper evaluates the feasibility of using the assimilated ESA Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS)Mission L-band passive microwave data for operational US cropland soil surface moisture monitoring. The assimilated SMOS soil moisture data are first categorized to match with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) survey based weekly soil moisture observation data, which are ordinal. The categorized assimilated SMOS soil moisture data are compared with NASSs survey-based weekly soil moisture data for consistency and robustness using visual assessment and rank correlation. Preliminary results indicate that the assimilated SMOS soil moisture data highly co-vary with NASS field observations across a large geographic area. Therefore, SMOS data have great potential for US operational cropland soil moisture monitoring.

SMOS↗

Identifying Meteorologic and Oceanic Conditions Contributing to a Unique Phytoplankton Bloom Occurrence in Micronesia during October 2013

On the first several days of October 2013, daily chlorophyll a (chl a) data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aqua satellite detected a marked increase in chlorophyll a concentrations (chl a) in the vicinity of Chuuk Lagoon and the Federated States of Micronesia. Such an increase, likely indicative of a phytoplankton bloom, has not been observed in this location at any other time during the MODIS-Aqua mission, which commenced in 2002 and continues to present. Examination of sea surface wind data from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis dataset indicated that the region experienced a sequence of alternating elevated and very low wind speed events prior to the observation of the bloom. The influence of the winds can be seen in MERRA-2 sea surface skin temperature data. Elevated windspeeds for several days likely induced a mixing of deeper waters with higher nutrient levels to the surface, which was followed by stratification and phytoplankton growth during low wind intervals and finally transport induced by a brief high windspeed event. Analysis of hourly MERRA-2 maximum windspeed data over a 40-year period indicated that this sequence was climatologically rare.

Remote Sensing↗

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Chl-a↗

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on group-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Coccolithophores↗

Effect of Rain-Adjusted Satellite Sea Surface Salinity on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

ENSO has a significant impact on climate variability throughout the world and so has been the key focus for improving coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts. Assimilation of altimetry and in situ data lead to improved short-term forecasts of the coupled system. However, few studies have focused on improving the near-surface density/mixing through assimilation of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS). For expediency, most projects that do assimilate SSS do so as if these data were observed at the top model layer instead of at the surface. In rainy regions where buoyant water sits as a fresh lens at the surface, this assumption is likely invalid. Therefore, we adjust SSS so that it more accurately represents the salinity at the first model layer. The Rain Impact Model (RIM) uses a simple diffusion model to determine the near surface salinity gradient (i.e., 1 cm to 5 m). Satellite SSS data are modified using this near-surface salinity gradient, so the salinity values are now valid at the first model layer (we call this SSS@5m). We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for near-surface dynamics within ocean reanalyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO S2S coupled system. For all reanalysis experiments, all available along-track sea level and in situ observations are assimilated for 2011 to 2020 using the LETKF scheme (Penny et al., 2013). One reanalysis assimilates Aquarius /SMAP SSS as before. An additional reanalysis is performed assimilating the SSS@5m data. Validation statistics are compared for experiments that assimilate SSS (sub-optimally as before) versus the SSS@5m. We also compare results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from these reanalyses in spring. For all but the big La Niña in 2017, all NINO3.4 forecasts were improved by using the RIM. We will show that improved SSS estimates upgrades density and near-surface mixing leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better forecasts.

ENSO↗

Reanalysis Activities at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

This talk presents an overview of recent reanalysis activities at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) as part of a multi-faceted strategy towards an Integrated Earth System retrospective analysis, coupling components of the atmosphere, ocean, chemistry, land, and ice. While elements of the atmosphere-ocean coupled Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and data assimilation are being actively developed, a suite of reanalysis products is designed to provide further understanding of key aspects of Earth system coupling in a reanalysis context: The baseline atmospheric reanalysis, the GEOS Retrospective analysis for the early 21st Century (GEOS-R21C), features recent advances in the GEOS model and data assimilation, and targets the NASA’s Earth Observing System EOS and post-EOS satellite observations; GEOS-IT, a user-tailored low-resolution atmospheric reanalysis, serves as a second baseline to the NASA Instrument Teams for validation and calibration and drives a one-way coupled ocean reanalysis, GEOSIT-Ocean; PolarMERRA, a high-resolution downscaled product for the polar regions, focuses on improving the representation of polar atmospheric processes with an assessment of current cryospheric biases, and targeted improvements to surface sea ice and glacier conditions; Finally, R21C-Chem, an off-line atmospheric chemistry and composition reanalysis, includes both tropospheric and stratospheric trace gases. The diversity of these reanalysis activities presents unique opportunities for collaborations cross-teams/institutions, with new commercial data partners, and with end-user groups. This talk will discuss these opportunities and explore leveraging the lessons learned along the way on key drivers in Earth system interactions as we converge towards the next generation of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) suite.

Amal El Akkraoui↗

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

Phytoplankton is responsible for over half of the net primary production on earth. The knowledge on the contribution of various phytoplankton groups to the total primary production is still poorly understood. Data from satellite observations suggest that for upwelling regions, photosynthetic rates by microplankton is higher than that of nanoplankton but that when the spatial extent is considered, the production by nanoplankton is comparable or even larger than microplankton. Here, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (approx. 50%) followed by coccolithophores and chlorophytes. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (>45 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nino Index, MEI) and 'regional' climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

OBM↗

A Stabilized Sparse-Matrix U-D Square-Root Implementation of a Large-State Extended Kalman Filter

The full nonlinear Kalman filter sequential algorithm is, in theory, well-suited to the four-dimensional data assimilation problem in large-scale atmospheric and oceanic problems. However, it was later discovered that this algorithm can be very sensitive to computer roundoff, and that results may cease to be meaningful as time advances. Implementations of a modified Kalman filter are given.

data assimilation modified Kalman filter sequentia↗

Early Comparison of Ocean Analyses Using JEDI/SOCA 3 DVar vs. GEOS-S2S- 3 ODAS LETKF

At NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), data assimilation (DA) for the next-generation Goddard Earth Observing System Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (GEOS-S 2 S) coupled-model forecast system will transition to the Joint Effort for DA Integration (JEDI) system, which includes the marine DA component SOCA (Sea ice, Ocean, and Coupled Assimilation). It is envisioned that incorporating SOCA into GMAO Earth System Modeling will allow a more systematic approach to assimilating new data types (e.g., SWOT KaRIn), increasing resolution (e.g., 1/12°), and facilitating weakly (and eventually strongly) coupled DA (air-sea-ice, etc.). To prepare for this transition, testing is underway to compare SOCA results at high ocean resolution against the current GEOS-S 2 S Version 3 Ocean DA System (ODAS) 1 using similar initial conditions and observations.

David Russell↗

A Comparison between the TOPEX/POSEIDON Data and a Global Ocean General Circulation Model during 1992-1993

The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric sea level observation during 1992-1993 was used to validate the simulation made by a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by the daily wind stress and heat flux derived from the National Meteorological Center operational analysis. The OGCM is a version of the modular ocean model with a horizontal resolution of 2 deg longitude and 1 deg latitude and 22 levels in the vertical. The model simulation is compared to the observation at spatial scales of the order of 500 km and larger. Only the temporal variations are examined. The variability is composed primarily of the annual cycle and intraseasonal fluctuations (periods shorter than 100 days). The basic features of the annual cycle are simulated well by the model. Major discrepancies are found in the eastern tropical Pacific, as well as the eastern North Pacific and most of the interior of the North Atlantic. The culprit is suspected to be the inadequate heat forcing and mixing parameterizations of the model. Significant intraseasonal variability is found in the central North Pacific and the Southern Ocean. The simulation is highly correlated with the observation at periods from 20 to 100 days. The spatial scales are larger than 1000 km in many places. These variabilities are apparently the barotropic response of the ocean to wind forcing. The results of the study provide a basis for future assimilation of the data into the OGCM for improved description of the large-scale ocean variabilities.

Chao, Yi↗

Long-Period Tidal Variations in the Length of Day

A new model of long-period tidal variations in length of day is developed. The model comprises 80 spectral lines with periods between 18.6 years and 4.7 days, and it consistently includes effects of mantle anelasticity and dynamic ocean tides for all lines. The anelastic properties followWahr and Bergen; experimental confirmation for their results now exists at the fortnightly period, but there remains uncertainty when extrapolating to the longest periods. The ocean modeling builds on recent work with the fortnightly constituent, which suggests that oceanic tidal angular momentum can be reliably predicted at these periods without data assimilation. This is a critical property when modeling most long-period tides, for which little observational data exist. Dynamic ocean effects are quite pronounced at shortest periods as out-of-phase rotation components become nearly as large as in-phase components. The model is tested against a 20 year time series of space geodetic measurements of length of day. The current international standard model is shown to leave significant residual tidal energy, and the new model is found to mostly eliminate that energy, with especially large variance reduction for constituents Sa, Ssa, Mf, and Mt.

LOD tidal oscillations↗

Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be exacerbated when coupled, component systems with different physical characteristics and different spatial and temporal scales, and component observations in different media with different spatial and temporal frequencies and different latencies. Quantification of uncertainty in reanalyses is also a critical challenge and is important for expanding their utility as a tool for climate change assessment. This talk provides a brief overview of the progress of reanalysis development during recent decades, and describes remaining challenges in the progression toward coupled Earth system reanalyses.

IES↗

Improved Groundwater Table and L-Band Brightness Temperature Estimates for Northern Hemisphere Peatlands Using New Model Physics and SMOS Observations in a Global Data Assimilation Framework

There is an urgent need to include northern peatland hydrology in global Earth system models to better understand land-atmosphere interactions and sensitivities of peatland functions to climate change, and, ultimately, to improve climate change predictions. In this study, we introduced for the first time peatland-specific model physics into an assimilation scheme for L-band brightness temperature (Tb) data from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission to improve groundwater table estimates. We conducted two sets of model-only and data assimilation experiments using the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), applying (over peatlands only) in one of them a peatland-specific adaptation (PEATCLSM). The evaluation against in-situ measurements of peatland groundwater table depth indicates the superiority of PEATCLSM model physics and additionally improved performance after assimilating SMOS Tb observations. The better performance of PEATCLSM over nearly all Northern Hemisphere peatlands is further supported by the better agreement between SMOS Tb observations and Tb estimates from the model-only and data assimilation runs. Within the data assimilation scheme, PEATCLSM reduces Tb observation-minus-forecast residuals and leads to reduced data assimilation updates of water storage components and, thus, reduced water budget imbalances in the assimilation system.

SMOS↗