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DOE OSTI2020

NREL CITIES Support (CRADA CRD-14-00558 Final Report)

The Technical University of Denmark has received a Grant from the Danish Council for Strategic Research for the project "CITIES - Centre for IT-Intelligent Energy Systems in Cities", a strategic research centre, which involves industrial partners and universities. The Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC will participate with DTU as an industrial partner in "CITIES" under this Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA). The Centre for IT based Intelligent Energy Systems in Cities (CITIES) Project is a Danish national research center focused on work in building short-term operational integrated energy system models that feed longer term plam1ing models, considering the spatio-temporal variations, interactions, dynamics and stochastics in the energy system, from production to consumption. CITIES will harness the extensive expertise and experience of its industrial and academic partners to conduct meaningful research with tangible outputs, including a roadmap to a fossil free future. Decision support tools will be developed to inform stakeholders of the impact of investment, control and policy measures and to identify further opportunities for energy system efficiency. Dissemination and transferring knowledge is a key value to this CRADA, and the use of results by Danish policymakers, industry and society is vital. All participants in the Centre for IT based Intelligent Energy Systems in Cities (CITIES) Project are therefore encouraged to use all means to communicate their findings to society. Wherever possible, and compatible with applicable intellectual property regulations, publications should be produced and disseminated under Open Science, Data, Source and Access principles.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modular Subsurface Sensors and Integrated Software for Advanced Subsurface Characterization and Monitoring using Unoccupied Vehicles

The advent and subsequent proliferation of autonomous airborne, waterborne, and groundbased vehicles (i.e., “drones”) promises to broadly transform the geosciences and associated industries, including fossil energy exploration and development, mineral resource exploration and development, water-resource management, and environmental remediation. For geophysical characterization and monitoring, the prospect of programming highly repeatable and low-cost drone missions for subsurface imaging will allow for deployments in hazardous and previously inaccessible areas. Coupled with autonomous workflows for data processing, management, and visualization, drone-based geophysical characterization and monitoring will enable unprecedented, real-time insight into diverse subsurface properties and processes of scientific and engineering importance. Toward this end, the objectives of this Lab Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project were to develop new (1) instrumentation for dronebased electromagnetic induction (EMI) geophysical imaging, including separated transmitter and receivers and associated electronics, (2) software for real-time data telemetry, processing, management, and visualization. Although EMI has been previously deployed using unoccupied aerial systems (UASs), these applications failed to capitalize on the game-changing capabilities of drone platforms. Whereas drone-based data acquisition allows for collection of rich, three-dimensional (3D) multi-offset/multi-angle configurations between transmitters and receivers, past efforts have relied on conventional instrumentation that was designed for ground-based data collection with the transmitter and a single receiver housed in the same unit; nor did these previous applications demonstrate real-time delivery of results to support rapid management decisions in the field. In this 1-year project, we (1) designed and constructed new lightweight independent transmitter and receiver antenna platforms that communicate with a laptop computer; (2) developed software to control data acquisition, manage/transfer data, and visualize data as its collected; and (3) demonstrated the operation of the new hardware and software systems in a ground-based field test. Our work entails major technological advances for EMI and established a foundation on which to build a new drone-based, real-time geophysical EMI imaging capability to support diverse challenges facing the nation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Batteries Included: Top 10 Findings from Berkeley Lab Research on the Growth of Hybrid Power Plants in the United States

One of the most important electric power system trends of the 2010s was the rapid deployment of wind turbines and photovoltaic arrays, but a twist for the 2020s may be the rapid deployment of ‘hybrid’ generation resources. Hybrid power plants typically combine solar or wind (or other energy sources) with co-located storage. While hybridization helps to ease the challenge of balancing variable supply and demand, its relative novelty means that research is needed to facilitate integration and promote innovation. Combining the characteristics of multiple energy, storage, and conversion technologies poses complex questions for grid operations and economics. Project developers, system operators, planners, and regulators would benefit from better data, methods, and tools to estimate the costs, values, and system impacts of hybrid projects. This publication showcases some of Berkeley Lab’s robust research program intended to support private- and public-sector decision-making about hybrid plants in the United States. Our short briefing summarizes articles that we published between 2020 and 2022, links to the in-depth reports, and provides contact details for further engagement on the specific research topics: Growth: Developer interest in hybrid power plants is strong and growing Price vs. Value: PV+storage hybrids have low PPA prices and high value in some regions Market Drivers: Solar hybridization is driven by tax credits and other benefits Configuration Choices: Market prices have incentivized shorter duration batteries with PV Capacity Value: The capacity contribution of a hybrid is less than the sum of its parts Ancillary Services: AS markets are a valuable yet fleeting option for hybrids Market Participation: Hybrids can more flexibly engage with electricity markets Operations: The power system value of hybrids depends on how they are operated Distributed Hybrids: Growth of customer-sited PV+storage hybrids offers new opportunities Future Research: Where next? Priority areas for hybrid power research.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constellation: The autonomous control and data acquisition system for dynamic experimental setups

The operation of instruments and detectors in laboratory or beamline environments presents a complex challenge, requiring stable operation of multiple concurrent devices, often controlled by separate hardware and software solutions. These environments frequently undergo modifications, such as the inclusion of different auxiliary devices depending on the experiment or facility, adding further complexity. The successful management of such dynamic configurations demands a flexible and robust system capable of controlling data acquisition, monitoring experimental setups, enabling seamless reconfiguration, and integrating new devices with limited effort. This paper presents Constellation, a flexible and network-distributed control and data acquisition software framework tailored to laboratory and beamline environments, that addresses the limitations of existing solutions. The framework is designed with a focus on extensibility, providing a streamlined interface for instrument integration. It supports efficient system setup via network discovery mechanisms, promotes stability through autonomous operational features, and provides comprehensive documentation and supporting tools for operators and application developers such as controllers and logging interfaces. At the core of the architectural design is the autonomy of the individual components, called satellites, which can make independent decisions about their operation and communicate these decisions to other components. This paper introduces the design principles and framework architecture of Constellation, presents the available graphical user interfaces, shares insights from initial successful deployments, and provides an outlook on future developments and applications.

Autonomy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Thermal Energy Storage Configurations for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply: Conceptual Study and Engineering Designs

The industries examined in this report primarily rely on moderate-temperature heat provided by gas- or coal-fired boilers and combined heat and power (CHP) plants, delivered through standard process steam systems. High-temperature energy demands are often industry-specific and typically exceed the capabilities of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). While it is technically feasible to replace process steam from fossil-based heat sources with nuclear energy, certain industries, such as methanol production and pulp and paper, face technoeconomic challenges in integrating nuclear energy without major changes or a technological shift. This is mainly due to the limited external energy demand remaining after the use of internal byproducts, waste heat recovery, and simple efficiency improvements. Achieving full decarbonization of these processes with nuclear energy would require significant technological advancements, involving experimental technology and substantial investments, making widespread adoption in existing industrial plants unlikely in the near term. This study reviews TES options in the context of enabling a flexible CHP supply while maintaining a steady nuclear heat input. Heat storage systems that interface between the reactor primary fluid and the CHP system offer superior performance and flexibility. Specifically, steam extraction downstream of the reheater with a two-tank molten-salt TES appears as the best solution regarding thermodynamic system benefits and system drawbacks. Using selected system configurations, a conceptual design of an industrial energy park was developed for industries with varying energy demands, such as steel production plants utilizing electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and chemical plants, as well as for those with constant energy demands, like petroleum refineries. This design highlights the capabilities of TES and explores its potential business cases. The study also conceptually develops the potential for integrating additional energy sources with nuclear systems through the implementation of TES. The potential of the HTGR-TES-CHP system was also evaluated considering key uncertainties such as industrial demand profiles, external grid access availability, and eligible tax credit levels, using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network. Sensitivity of net present value to these uncertainties was analyzed to determine the optimal number of nuclear reactors (and CHP systems) and the suitable TES capacity. The results were interpreted from a decision-maker’s perspective, focusing on three key areas: deployment strategy (oversized units vs. undersized units with TES support), industrial process characteristics (thermal-intensive single profiles vs. electricity-intensive combined profiles), and operational goals (maximizing profits vs. minimizing natural gas (NG) consumption or external grid dependence). The optimization results indicate that the HTGR-TES-CHP system significantly reduces reliance on NG boilers for individual industrial processes by 9-60% (in NG capacity factor), with an average reduction of 38%, compared to standalone NG boiler operation case (Business As Usual [BAU]). For combined industrial processes, the reduction ranges from 37-77%, with an average of 60%. Additionally, the system greatly reduces dependence on external grids. In meeting industrial electrical demands, a 33-100% self-sufficient internal electricity supply is achieved for single industrial process, with an average of 74%, compared to the BAU scenario, where 100% of electricity is imported. For combined processes, 35-100% of internal electricity demands are met by the reactor, with an average of 73%. At last, the relative NG price levels at which the proposed HTGR-TES-CHP system can cost-effectively enter the market currently dominated by existing NG boilers were estimated. For a moderate HTGR CAPEX level ($\$$2500/kWth, $\$$6329/kWe), the analysis suggests that NG prices must be 2.5 to 7 times higher than HTGR variable operating and maintenance costs for single industrial process, and 5.5 to 9.5 times higher for a combined process scenario. Tax credit modeling shows that the Investment Tax Credit significantly reduces the price threshold needed to break even, making the system competitive with NG boilers in certain cases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

2023 Operational Assessment Report: Argonne Leadership Computing Facility

In 2004, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program established the Leadership Computing Facility (LCF) with a mission to provide the world’s most advanced computational resources to the open science community. The LCF is a huge investment in the nation’s scientific and technological future, inspired by a growing demand for large-scale computing and its impact on science and engineering. The LCF operates two world-class centers in support of open science at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) and at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Oak Ridge) and deploys diverse machines that are among the most powerful systems in the world today. The LCF ranks among the top U.S. scientific facilities delivering impactful science. The work performed at these centers informs policy decisions and advances innovations in far-reaching areas such as energy assurance, ecological sustainability, and global security. The leadership-class systems at Argonne and Oak Ridge operate around the clock every day of the year. The high level of services these centers provide and the exceptional science they produce justify their existence to the DOE Office of Science and the U.S. Congress

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Discrepancy Checker for the Digital Twin in a Supervisory Control System for a Thermal Energy Delivery System

Defined as a virtual representation of a physical object, process, or service, and used to support real-world decision-making, a digital twin (DT) can be utilized to combine classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems, and to enable optimal autonomous operations. However, a DT’s usefulness largely depends on its ability to adequately mirror the state of its physical counterpart, and this adequacy should be reflected by the level of uncertainty in the underlying simulation models when estimating and predicting quantities of interest (QOIs). Moreover, simulation models in a DT may involve multiple fidelities of representations—ranging from physics-based models to data-driven ones—but classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods struggle to handle numerous uncertainty sources, nor are they designed for real-time applications. This work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system applied to a thermal energy delivery system (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory. The discrepancy checker was developed using metadata from an automated DT development process, and these metadata included different combinations of physical model forms and model parameters, training data and hyperparameters for surrogate models, and design parameters for supervisory control systems. Next, correlations between the uncertainty results and the metadata were established and then applied to the DT operations. The discrepancy checker evaluates the discrepancies between model predictions from virtual and sensor measurements and backtraces them to the corresponding major sources of uncertainty. The discrepancy checker showed reasonable performance in detecting discrepancies and diagnosing sources of uncertainty in testing scenarios.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? (Final Economic Impact Results) [Slides]

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? Final Economic Impact Results

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cycles-L: A Coupled, 3-D, Land Surface, Hydrologic, and Agroecosystem Landscape Model

Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship can be informed by spatially-distributed models that operate at spatial and temporal scales that are intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale agroecosystem and hydrologic modeling system, using as a test case a watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L emerges from melding the landscape and hydrology structure of Flux-PIHM, a 3-D land surface hydrologic model, with the agroecosystem processes in the Cycles model. Consequently, Cycles-L can simulate processes affected by topography, soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its physically-based hydrology that can simulate horizontal and vertical transport of solutes with water. The model was tested at a 730-ha experimental watershed within the Mahantango Creek watershed. Cycles-L simulated well stream water and mineral nitrogen discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55 and 0.60, respectively) and grain yield (root mean square error 1.2 Mg ha -1 ). Cycles-L outputs are as good or better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water discharge) and Cycles (grain yield) models. Modeled spatial patterns of nitrogen fluxes like denitrification illustrate the combined control of crop management and topography. For example, denitrification is almost twice as high when simulated with Cycles-L than when simulated with Cycles 1-D. Due to its spatial and temporal resolution, Cycles-L fills a gap in the availability of models that operate at a scale relevant to evaluate interventions in the landscape. Cycles-L can become a central component in tools for climate change scenario analysis, precision agriculture, precision conservation, and artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Hierarchical Control Architecture: Utilization of Behind-the-Meter Appliances with Increased Visibility and Controllability

Optimal operations of distribution systems to enhance reliability and resiliency can be achieved if information with higher fidelity can be accessed from grid premise devices. This paper discusses a hierarchical control architecture that can introduce higher visibility and controllability by utilizing the estimated injection and absorption of different behind-the-meter controllable loads, and DERs, including EVs, within a premise. The acquired information is used to make control decisions for scheduling the premise appliances to reduce energy consumptions. The premise controller can also optimize the consumptions on a day-to-day basis in addition to taking input signals from the utility operators to support grid-service events (e.g., peak shaving). The entire control architecture is designed in a modular and scalable fashion that provides benefits to the utility from the reuse of existing infrastructure while creating opportunities for various grid services to be enabled by the operation of premise controllers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Real-Time Operations Manual for the IEEE 118 Bus Transmission Model

This document presents a sample operations manual for the IEEE 118 Bus Model, which is a synthetic test case developed in 1962 from a section of the transmission grid operated by American Electric Power (AEP). The model is one of the most used synthetic test cases for development of power system applications and is referenced by over 9000 papers. However, the model lacks any context for use with real-time energy management system (EMS) applications, including common considerations, such as generator ramp rates, reactive capabilities, operating limits, and other information typically used by power system operators for real-time decision making. This manual divides the IEEE 118 Bus Model into three operating areas, defines various operating limits, and sets recommended operating procedures for responding to a few types of emergency operating conditions. The manual can be used in support of a wide variety of human-in-the-loop evaluation methodologies for new advanced power applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

CRiSPPy: An advanced hydropower scheduling tool for the Colorado River Storage Project

The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) plays a vital role in delivering reliable and cost-effective hydroelectric power to millions of customers across the western United States. The Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) carries out WAPA’s mission in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Wyoming and Texas. Achieving this mission requires effective management of the Colorado River system, and depends on the use of advanced analytical tools and modeling methodologies. For many years, CRSP has relied on the Generation and Transmission Maximization Superlite (GTMax SL) model for its mid-term and long-term hydroscheduling needs. However, the evolving energy market, power system operations, environmental rules, and hydrology conditions, coupled with advancements in computational capabilities, have necessitated the development of a more modern and robust solution. This report introduces the Colorado River Storage Project Python-based (CRiSPPy) model, a new, advanced hydropower scheduling tool developed to address CRSP ever-evolving challenges. CRiSPPy represents a significant leap forward in our ability to model and optimize the operation of the Colorado River system. It incorporates state-of-the-art optimization algorithms, enhanced data management capabilities, and an advanced graphical user interface, providing WAPA CRSP personnel with unprecedented insights and decision-making support. This document details the development, capabilities, and implementation of CRiSPPy. It is intended to serve as a comprehensive resource for WAPA staff, stakeholders, and anyone interested in the future of hydropower scheduling in the Colorado River Basin. We are confident that CRiSPPy will enhance WAPA's mission while adapting to the challenges of a dynamic and increasingly complex environment. The version of CRiSPPy described in this report is the version 2.3. New versions of CRiSPPy will be developed as the tool keeps evolving to address CRSP challenges.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application and evaluation of a pattern-based building energy model calibration method using public building datasets

Building performance simulation has been adopted to support decision making in the building life cycle. An essential issue is to ensure a building energy simulation model can capture the reality and complexity of buildings and their systems in both the static characteristics and dynamic operations. Building energy model calibration is a technique that takes various types of measured performance data (e.g., energy use) and tunes key model parameters to match the simulated results with the actual measurements. This study performed an application and evaluation of an automated pattern-based calibration method on commercial building models that were generated based on characteristics of real buildings. A public building dataset that includes high-level building attributes (e.g., building type, vintage, total floor area, number of stories, zip code) of 111 buildings in San Francisco, California, USA, was used to generate building models in EnergyPlus. Monthly level energy use calibrations were then conducted by comparing building model results against the actual buildings' monthly electricity and natural gas consumption. The results showed 57 out of 111 buildings were successfully calibrated against actual buildings, while the remaining buildings showed opportunities for future calibration improvements. Enhancements to the pattern-based model calibration method are identified to expand its use for: (1) central heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems with chillers, (2) space heating and hot water heating with electricity sources, (3) mixed-use building types, and (4) partially occupied buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flow Forecasting on New England’s Great River Hydro (CRADA 549) (Final Report)

Great River Hydro (GRH) is New England's largest conventional hydropower generator and operates sustainable hydropower systems in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. Several of GRH’s hydropower projects on the Connecticut River are largely constrained to operate as run-of-river; however, though a new FERC license they have opportunity in the form of flex hours where they are allowed to deviate operations to capture favorable market conditions or emergency operations. To maximize value from these new operations, GRH is considering new sources of forecasted inflow. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is evaluating the quality of two commercial inflow forecasts for GRH under DOE Water Power Technology Office’s Notice of Opportunity for Technical Assistance: Improving Hydropower’s Value through Informed Decision Making. This project will provide an unbiased evaluation of the accuracy of inflow forecasts available through commercial vendors. GRH will use this information to support their decision on which inflow forecast to use under their new FERC license and to assess the overall value of the available inflow forecasting tools and practices. In this talk we will discuss details of the near real-time forecast evaluation process, the metrics involved in the evaluation, and some preliminary results. In addition, we’ll touch on the second phase of the project which involves evaluating scheduling strategies that identify windows of opportunity to change operations in ways that increase profit through participation in day ahead and real time markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Method for Assessment of Security-Relevant Settings in Anomaly-Based Intrusion Detection for Industrial Control Systems

Ensuring the integrity of Ethernet-based networks is a challenging and constantly evolving domain. This problem is exacerbated for those operational technology (OT) networks supporting industrial control systems (ICS) since much of that equipment was originally designed to be on a network that was isolated and generally considered free of malefactors. Increasing pressure to bridge these systems with traditional information technology (IT) networks has introduced a bevy of new threats. In response, both academia and industry have responded with security solutions tailored to ICS environments. Deploying these protection systems often involves several configuration choices. While some of these choices are clear (e.g., block/enable protocol X) others are far more subjective (e.g. alert threshold == 3.43). Further complicating the situation, while often similar to IT networks, OT networks have unique challenges and characteristics that make the task of protecting them simultaneously more difficult and straight forward.Extant solutions for quantifying the relative security of intrusion detection systems fail to effectively support the operators of said systems with understanding the impact of various configuration changes. Further, they assume that the attacks are static and not subject to manipulation or alteration in the face of defenses. In this paper, we present a threat-based method for quantifying the relative impact of various security settings for intrusion detection systems (IDSs) within ICS environments. This method provides operational staff with a clear understanding of the relative impact of their settings and assumes that the attacks levied against them are dynamic. The model is described in detail, we apply the model to a synthetic data set, and discuss the inferences that can be made and what types of decisions they could be used to support.

Gillen, Rob↗