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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Two Marine Heatwave (MHW) Variants under a Basinwide MHW Conditioning Mode in the North Pacific and Their Atlantic Associations

Abstract During 2013–16 and 2018–22, marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the North Pacific, exhibiting similar extensive coverage, lengthy duration, and significant intensity but with different warming centers. The warming center of the 2013–16 event was in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), while the 2018–22 event had warming centers in both the GOA and the coast of Japan (COJ). Our observational analysis indicates that these two events can be considered as two MHW variants induced by a basinwide MHW conditioning mode in the North Pacific. Both variants were driven thermodynamically by atmospheric wave trains propagating from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, within the conditioning mode. The origin and propagating path of these wave trains play a crucial role in determining the specific type of MHW variant. When a stronger wave train originates from the tropical central (western) Pacific, it leads to the GOA (COJ) variant. The cross-basin nature of the wave trains enables the two MHW variants to be accompanied by a tripolar pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic but with opposite phases. The association of these two MHW variants with the Atlantic Ocean also manifests in the decadal variations of their occurrence. Both variants tend to occur more frequently during the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation but less so during the negative phase. This study underscores the importance of cross-basin associations between the North Pacific and North Atlantic in shaping the dynamics of North Pacific MHWs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection of atmospheric rivers with inline uncertainty quantification: TECA-BARD v1.0.1

It has become increasingly common for researchers to utilize methods that identify weather features in climate models. There is an increasing recognition that the uncertainty associated with choice of detection method may affect our scientific understanding. For example, results from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) indicate that there are a broad range of plausible atmospheric river (AR) detectors and that scientific results can depend on the algorithm used. There are similar examples from the literature on extratropical cyclones and tropical cyclones. It is therefore imperative to develop detection techniques that explicitly quantify the uncertainty associated with the detection of events. We seek to answer the following question: given a “plausible” AR detector, how does uncertainty in the detector quantitatively impact scientific results? We develop a large dataset of global AR counts, manually identified by a set of eight researchers with expertise in atmospheric science, which we use to constrain parameters in a novel AR detection method. We use a Bayesian framework to sample from the set of AR detector parameters that yield AR counts similar to the expert database of AR counts; this yields a set of “plausible” AR detectors from which we can assess quantitative uncertainty. This probabilistic AR detector has been implemented in the Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis (TECA), which allows for efficient processing of petabyte-scale datasets. We apply the TECA Bayesian AR Detector, TECA-BARD v1.0.1, to the MERRA-2 reanalysis and show that the sign of the correlation between global AR count and El Niño–Southern Oscillation depends on the set of parameters used.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel usage of deep learning and high-performance computing in long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

Mención Internacional en el título de doctorDeep-learning methods are playing a crucial role in numerous scientific and industrialapplications. Over the past two decades, these techniques have helped in the collection,reconstruction, and analysis of large data samples in particle physics experiments. Themain topic of this PhD research is the study of deep-learning techniques in long-baselineneutrino oscillation experiments. Neutrinos are mysterious light elementary particles,and their investigation is essential to shed light on some of the remaining open questionsin physics. The work presented here describes an algorithm based on a convolutionalneural network developed to provide highly accurate and efficient selections of electronneutrino and muon neutrino interactions in the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment(DUNE). With this algorithm, the electron neutrino (antineutrino) selection efficiencypeaks at 90% (94%) and exceeds 85% (90%) for reconstructed neutrino energies between2-5 GeV. The selection efficiency for muon neutrino (antineutrino) interactions is foundto have a maximum of 96% (97%) and exceeds 90% (95%) efficiency for reconstructedneutrino energies above 2 GeV. When considering all electron neutrino and antineutrinointeractions as signal (both those appearing from oscillations and those intrinsic tothe beam), a selection purity of 90% is achieved. These event selections are criticalto maximise the sensitivity of the experiment to CP-violating effects, key to furtherunderstand the matter-antimatter asymmetry of the Universe.In high-energy physics experiments, deep learning has also been explored for producingfast simulations and physically-motivated manipulations of simulated images. Some ofthose simulations, such as the light production and detection, are very computationallyexpensive and require novel methods to produce the necessary samples while controllingthe varied underlying physics model parameters. To do so, we invented the model-assistedgenerative adversarial network (MAGAN), first validated on simple generic case studiesand then successfully applied to the DUNE photon-detector simulation.Moreover, we also developed graph neural networks for 3D-voxel classification ofambiguities and optical crosstalk for a different particle physics experiment, most preciselyfor the proposed SuperFGD. This novel 3D-granular plastic-scintillator neutrino detectorwill be used to upgrade the near detector of the T2K neutrino oscillation experiment, and our method reports efficiencies and purities of 94-96% per event in the classificationof particle track voxels.Due to the growth and complexity of deep neural networks, researchers have beeninvestigating techniques to train those networks in a more computationally-efficient way.Many efforts have been made by the community to optimise deep-learning models byparallelising or distributing their training computation across multiple devices. In thisthesis, we study an approach based on data locality for those neural networks that cannotbenefit from scaling their computation due to a significant bottleneck in the data I/O.The research also includes a detailed study on the performance of deep neural networkson hardware accelerator boards.Los métodos de aprendizaje profundo son cada vez más utilizados en numerosas aplicacionescientíficas e industriales hoy en día. Durante las dos últimas décadas, estastécnicas se han empleado en la recolección, reconstrucción y análisis de la gran cantidadde datos generados por experimentos de física de partículas. El tema principal de estatesis doctoral es el uso de estos modelos de aprendizaje profundo en experimentos defísica de neutrinos, en concreto en los experimentos de larga distancia DUNE y T2K. Losneutrinos, partículas fundamentales neutras, de las más ligeras del Universo, pueden serclave para explicar algunas de las cuestiones todavía sin resolver en física fundamental.Entre las diferentes contribuciones que esta tesis ha hecho a su estudio, cabe destacar eldesarrollo de un algoritmo basado en una red de neuronas convolucional para seleccionarcon gran eficiencia y precisión las interacciones de neutrinos electrónicos y muónicos enel Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). La eficiencia de selección obtenidapara neutrinos (antineutrinos) electrónicos alcanza un máximo del 90% (94%) y supera el85% (90%) para neutrinos con energías reconstruidas en el rango 2-5 GeV. La selección deneutrinos (antineutrinos) muónicos tiene una eficiencia máxima del 96% (97%) y excedeel 90% (95%) para neutrinos con energías reconstruidas de más de 2 GeV. Considerandocomo señal todas las interacciones de neutrinos y antineutrinos electrónicos (procedentestanto de oscilaciones como intrínsecos en el haz inicial), se logra una pureza en la seleccióndel 90%. Dichas selecciones de eventos son fundamentales para maximizar la sensibilidaddel experimento a los efectos de violació...

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Search for Electron Neutrino Anomalies with the MicroBooNE Detector

The Micro Booster Neutrino Experiment (MicroBooNE) is a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) located in the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The experiment was devised to investigate a series of observed anomalies concerning short-baseline neutrino oscillation physics. The LArTPC technology enables the experiment to study neutrino-argon scattering with unprecedented detail.This thesis presents a cosmic-ray characterisation and rate measurement. The understanding of cosmic activity in the detector - MicroBooNE's dominant background - is then used to develop cosmic rejection tools. A flavour-agnostic neutrino selection is constructed, which forms the cornerstone of this and further analyses. Inclusive muon and electron charged-current neutrino interaction selections with unprecedented purity and efficiency are presented.The first fully-automated characterisation of electron neutrinos in a muon neutrino beam with the LArTPC detector technology is performed. The Booster Neutrino Beam has an energy peaking around 1GeV and an intrinsic electron content of approximately 0.5%. The analysis investigates electrons produced in charged-current electron neutrino interactions. The kinematics of the electrons are measured along with comparisons to simulation. Most of the systematic uncertainties are constrained using a data-driven sample of charged-current muon neutrino events. The measurement of electron neutrinos originating from the Booster Neutrino Beam is a crucial component towards understanding the nature of the observed excess of low-energy electromagnetic-like events at its predecessor, MiniBooNE.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Early Alarm: Robust Event Analysis for Power Systems using 1-D Fully Convolutional Network

This work presents a novel deep learning model for early, accurate, and robust detection, recognition, and temporal localization of multi-type events in large-scale power systems. The proposed method develops a unified 1-D fully convolutional network (FCN) model that takes time series of raw frequency signals measured from a power system as input, extracts distinguishing features, and predicts at every temporal point in the time series if an event is happening and what the type of the event is. Compared to existing methods, the proposed model eliminates the necessity for hand-crafted feature extraction or complicated data pre-processing, can flexibly handle input signals of arbitrary length, and precisely infer the event occurrence time. Most importantly, the model is intentionally trained with incomplete patterns, such that it is more robust to partial features of an event which is common in real-world online recognition, resulting in early alarm for power system failures. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior performance to the state-of-the-art, and also shows strong robustness to noise and system oscillations.

Li, Chengcheng↗
DOE OSTI2022

A substandard candle: the low-$$\nu $$ method at few-GeV neutrino energies

Abstract As accelerator-based neutrino oscillation experiments improve oscillation parameter constraints with more data, control over systematic uncertainties on the incoming neutrino flux and interaction models is increasingly important. The intense beams offered by modern experiments permit a variety of options to constrain the flux using in situ “standard candle” measurements. These standard candles must use very well understood interaction processes to avoid introducing additional interaction model dependence. One option often discussed in this context is the “low- $$\nu $$ ν ” method, which is designed to isolate neutrino interactions where there is low energy-transfer to the nucleus, such that the interaction cross section is expected to be approximately constant as a function of neutrino energy. The shape of the low-energy transfer event sample can then be used to extract the flux shape. Applications of the method at high neutrino energies (many tens of GeV) are well understood. However, the applicability of the method at the lower energies of current and future few-GeV accelerator neutrino experiments remains unclear due to the presence of nuclear and form-factor effects inherent in the interaction models.In this analysis we examine the prospects for improving constraints on the accelerator neutrino fluxes in situ with the low- $$\nu $$ ν method in an experiment-independent way, using (anti)neutrino interactions on argon and hydrocarbon targets from the GENIE, NEUT, NuWro and GiBUU event generators. We begin by investigating the extent to which deviations from the constant cross-section assumption are dependent on poorly understood aspects of the neutrino interaction model. We then assess whether a low energy-transfer event sample can be confidently identified using experimentally accessible observables. We finally consider how the practicalities of reconstructing the energy spectrum of interacting neutrinos in realistic detectors might further limit the utility of low- $$\nu $$ ν flux constraints. The results show that flux constraints from the low- $$\nu $$ ν method would be severely dependent on the interaction model assumptions used in an analysis of neutrinos with energies below 5 GeV, and anti-neutrinos below at least 15 GeV. The spread of model predictions show that a low- $$\nu $$ ν analysis is unlikely to offer much improvement on typical neutrino flux uncertainties, even with a perfect detector. Notably—running counter to the assumption inherent to the low- $$\nu $$ ν method—the model-dependence increases with decreasing energy transfer for experiments in the few-GeV region.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low-energy physics in neutrino LArTPCs

Here, in this paper, we review scientific opportunities and challenges related to detection and reconstruction of low-energy (less than 100 MeV) signatures in liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detectors. LArTPC neutrino detectors designed for performing precise long-baseline oscillation measurements with GeV-scale accelerator neutrino beams also have unique sensitivity to a range of physics and astrophysics signatures via detection of event features at and below the few tens of MeV range. In addition, low-energy signatures are an integral part of GeV-scale accelerator neutrino interaction final-states, and their reconstruction can enhance the oscillation physics sensitivities of LArTPC experiments. New physics signals from accelerator and natural sources also generate diverse signatures in the low-energy range, and reconstruction of these signatures can increase the breadth of Beyond the Standard Model scenarios accessible in LArTPC-based searches. A variety of experimental and theory-related challenges remain to realizing this full range of potential benefits. Neutrino interaction cross-sections and other nuclear physics processes in argon relevant to sub-hundred-MeV LArTPC signatures are poorly understood, and improved theory and experimental measurements are needed; pion decay-at-rest sources and charged particle and neutron test beams are ideal facilities for improving this understanding. There are specific calibration needs in the low-energy range, as well as specific needs for control and understanding of radiological and cosmogenic backgrounds. Low-energy signatures, whether steady-state or part of a supernova burst or larger GeV-scale event topology, have specific triggering, DAQ and reconstruction requirements that must be addressed outside the scope of conventional GeV-scale data collection and analysis pathways. Novel concepts for future LArTPC technology that enhance low-energy capabilities should also be explored to help address these challenges.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing thermodynamics of radiogenic helium and defects in $δ$-plutonium alloys and interactions with adsorbed environmental gases

Differential scanning calorimetry coupled with simultaneous evolved gas analysis (DSC-EGA) on aged δ-Pu samples shows that most radiogenic helium remains trapped within the Pu matrix at temperatures very close to, or slightly above, the melting temperature. Our results indicate that helium release from 50-year-old δ-Pu occurs as a burst just below the melting temperature (>0.994 T m ), with subsequent pressure oscillations as temperature increases. Subordinate quantities of H 2 were also released along with helium. Here, the helium emission tails off and ceases above ~720 – 750°C. In a δ-Pu alloy aged 6 years, the initial helium burst occurs slightly above melting (~1.015 – 1.042 T m ), with a discrete, larger helium spike occurring between 670 and 686°C. The proximity of helium release to the liquidus transition presented challenges in the deconvolution of overlapping process enthalpies, the liquidus endotherm, and the exotherm resulting from bubble collapse, annealing and gas expulsion. Helium’s strong affinity for vacancy binding in a 2He-vac configuration is predicted by Density Functional Theory (DFT) modeling. The measured stored energy associated with the He release events in a 50-year-old δ alloy is on the order of ~ 10–11 J/g, which is significantly higher than stored energies measured in the sub-solidus regimes (~2 J/g) that are related to the solid-state annealing of processing- and radiation-induced defects. This implies that aged δ Pu alloys have a remarkable resilience to accommodate the lattice strain produced by the internal pressure of the helium bubbles and provides further insight into the thermodynamic behavior of aged δ Pu.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Volcanic Imprints in Last-Millennium Land Summer Temperatures in the Circum-North Atlantic Area

Summer cooling is one of the most direct consequences of explosive volcanic eruptions that can affect ecosystems and human societies. Recent studies revealed a multiyear cooling impact on hemispheric and global summer temperatures after tropical eruptions, yet the volcanic responses appear to vary on regional scales. Here, in this work, we revisit volcano-induced summer cooling in eastern Canada and northern and central Europe by applying superposed epoch analysis on CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations and millennial temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring density. We then examine potential causes modulating region-specific volcanic impact. While confirming that, on average, tropical eruptions over the last millennium have induced a longer cooling (>4 yr) than eruptions from extratropical Northern Hemisphere in all three North Atlantic regions, we show that the peak magnitude of cooling is stronger in eastern Canada. We also find that the detected volcanic temperature anomalies can be strongly affected by the selection and number of volcanic events and nonvolcanic signals embedded in the climate time series. This study highlights the risks of using highly noisy proxy records to investigate volcanic impacts, especially in regions with strong unforced climate variability. The CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations generally agree with the three reconstructions on the average response to tropical eruptions, but their performance is poorer regarding the production of significant cooling after extratropical eruptions. Our results further suggest that the particular sensitivity to tropical eruptions in eastern Canada is likely related to increased sea ice surrounding Quebec–Labrador associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation formed during the first posteruption winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geant4Reweight: a framework for evaluating and propagating hadronic interaction uncertainties in Geant4

Geant4Reweight is an open-source C++ framework that allows users to weight tracks produced by the Geant4 particle transport Monte Carlo simulation according to hadron interaction cross section variations and estimate uncertainties in Geant4 interaction models by comparing the simulation’s hadron interaction cross section predictions to data. The ability to weight hadron transport as simulated by Geant4 is crucial to the propagation of systematic uncertainties related to secondary hadronic interactions in current and upcoming neutrino oscillation experiments, including MicroBooNE, NOvA, and DUNE, aswell as hadron test beam experiments such as ProtoDUNE. Here, we provide motivation for weighting hadron tracks in Geant4 in the context of systematic uncertainty propagation, a description of Geant4’s transport simulation technique, and a description of our weighting technique and fitting framework in the momentum range 0–10 GeV/c, which is typical for the hadrons produced by neutrino interactions in these experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neutron Tagging From Neutrino Interactions in DUNE-ND 2x2 Prototype

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment that aims to measure whether CP is violated in the leptonic sector (if violated, how much) and unambiguously determine the neutrino mass ordering. DUNE consists of near and far detectors that rely on liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) technology to observe neutrino interactions. The near detector (ND) will be placed in Fermilab, near the neutrino source, while the far detector (FD) will be deployed in Sanford Lab, 1.5 km deep underground, which is 1300 km away from the source. LArTPCs provide excellent particle identification and calorimetry; however, detecting neutrons is challenging, as they do not leave direct ionization signals in LArTPCs. Neutrons can carry away up to 25% of the neutrino energy, introducing a significant uncertainty in DUNE measurements. The DUNE near detector (ND) features a novel modular LArTPC with pixelated charge readout, which enhances event recons truction. The modular design enables precise correlation between ionization signals and light signals in a high-rate environment, improving the identification of delayed energy depositions from neutrons in neutrino interactions. We introduce a neutron tagging technique using the 2x2 Demonstrator, a small-scale prototype of the DUNE ND LArTPC. The analysis utilizes Monte Carlo simulations and deep-learning techniques to identify neutron-induced energy depositions and reconstruct low-energy activity.

Kufatty, Georgette [Florida State U.]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benefits of MeV-scale reconstruction capabilities in large liquid argon time projection chambers

Using truth-level Monte Carlo simulations of particle interactions in a large volume of liquid argon, we demonstrate physics capabilities enabled by reconstruction of topologically compact and isolated low-energy features, or “blips,” in large liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) events. These features are mostly produced by electron products of photon interactions depositing ionization energy. The blip identification capability of the LArTPC is enabled by its unique combination of size, position resolution precision, and low energy thresholds. Here, we show that consideration of reconstructed blips in LArTPC physics analyses can result in substantial improvements in calorimetry for neutrino and new physics interactions and for final-state particles ranging in energy from the MeV to the GeV scale. Blip activity analysis is also shown to enable discrimination between interaction channels and final-state particle types. In addition to demonstrating these gains in calorimetry and discrimination, some limitations of blip reconstruction capabilities and physics outcomes are also discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Low-Energy Physics in Neutrino LArTPCs

In this white paper, we outline some of the scientific opportunities and challenges related to detection and reconstruction of low-energy (less than 100 MeV) signatures in liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors. Key takeaways are summarized as follows. 1) LArTPCs have unique sensitivity to a range of physics and astrophysics signatures via detection of event features at and below the few tens of MeV range. 2) Low-energy signatures are an integral part of GeV-scale accelerator neutrino interaction final states, and their reconstruction can enhance the oscillation physics sensitivities of LArTPC experiments. 3) BSM signals from accelerator and natural sources also generate diverse signatures in the low-energy range, and reconstruction of these signatures can increase the breadth of BSM scenarios accessible in LArTPC-based searches. 4) Neutrino interaction cross sections and other nuclear physics processes in argon relevant to sub-hundred-MeV LArTPC signatures are poorly understood. Improved theory and experimental measurements are needed. Pion decay-at-rest sources and charged particle and neutron test beams are ideal facilities for experimentally improving this understanding. 5) There are specific calibration needs in the low-energy range, as well as specific needs for control and understanding of radiological and cosmogenic backgrounds. 6) Novel ideas for future LArTPC technology that enhance low-energy capabilities should be explored. These include novel charge enhancement and readout systems, enhanced photon detection, low radioactivity argon, and xenon doping. 7) Low-energy signatures, whether steady-state or part of a supernova burst or larger GeV-scale event topology, have specific triggering, DAQ and reconstruction requirements that must be addressed outside the scope of conventional GeV-scale data collection and analysis pathways.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cellular, molecular, and therapeutic characterization of pilocarpine-induced temporal lobe epilepsy

Animal models have expanded our understanding of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). However, translating these to cell-specific druggable hypotheses is not explored. Herein, we conducted an integrative insilico-analysis of an available transcriptomics dataset obtained from animals with pilocarpine-induced-TLE. A set of 119 genes with subtle-to-moderate impact predicted most forms of epilepsy with ~ 97% accuracy and characteristically mapped to upregulated homeostatic and downregulated synaptic pathways. The deconvolution of cellular proportions revealed opposing changes in diverse cell types. The proportion of nonneuronal cells increased whereas that of interneurons, except for those expressing vasoactive intestinal peptide (Vip), decreased, and pyramidal neurons of the cornu-ammonis (CA) subfields showed the highest variation in proportion. A probabilistic Bayesian-network demonstrated an aberrant and oscillating physiological interaction between nonneuronal cells involved in the blood–brain-barrier and Vip interneurons in driving seizures, and their role was evaluated insilico using transcriptomic changes induced by valproic-acid, which showed opposing effects in the two cell-types. Additionally, we revealed novel epileptic and antiepileptic mechanisms and predicted drugs using causal inference, outperforming the present drug repurposing approaches. These well-powered findings not only expand the understanding of TLE and seizure oscillation, but also provide predictive biomarkers of epilepsy, cellular and causal micro-circuitry changes associated with it, and a drug-discovery method focusing on these events.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

AToM: Advanced Tokamak Modeling Environment

Stability constraints play an important role in integrated modeling. The global plasma stability and macro-instabilities such as internal kink modes, neoclassical tearing modes, and edge localized perturbations limit the plasma performance and can result in large-scale transient events and plasma disruptions. These macro-instabilities can be also beneficial to the plasma performance. For example, the peeling models often lead to the edge localized modes (ELMs). However, the formation of stationary edge harmonic oscillations (EHOs) due to nonlinear interaction of peeling modes can result in a transition to the Quiescent H-mode (QH-mode) without ELMs. The profiles predicted with transport models need to be refined using the MHD stability constraints. This is important especially for transient and nonlinear stages of discharges such as ramp-up access to hybrid and steady state operation, and L- to H-mode transition as well as transition to the QH-mode. Several stability and MHD codes are already included in the OMFIT framework. These codes include BALOO, ELITE, GATO, M3DC1, MARS, and NIMROD. However, the verifications of stability constraints are currently mostly excluded from transport modeling workflows. The only exception is the EPED module which includes the ELITE predictions to limit the pedestal height. Here, we improved the OMFIT workflow to include stability calculations. Including the stability conditions to the integrated modeling workflow improved the robustness of the predictive modeling discharges. Being implemented in the workflow, the stability conditions can be also used for the stability analysis of experimental data. This improved the physics understanding of various discharge scenarios and can be used in experiment planning.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characteristics and Variability of Winter Northern Pacific Atmospheric River Flavors

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are intensive poleward moisture transport events that are essential to the global hydrological cycle and are often linked to extreme weather events. We categorize the winter North Pacific ARs into two “flavors”: wind‐dominated (windy ARs) and moisture‐dominated (wet ARs) using 40 years of hourly data from fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis. We compare the differences between windy ARs and wet ARs including the lifecycle characteristics (such as genesis locations and changes of meteorological elements through the lifecycle), overall AR frequency, landfall impacts, and variability. The windy ARs are more likely to occur in the midlatitudes, while wet ARs are more active in the subtropics. Windy ARs are associated with intensive surface pressure lows, where the strong pressure gradient can support the strong wind within ARs. Due to larger size and longer lifetime, wet ARs are more likely to produce more precipitation over a lifecycle. By scaling the landfalling ARs, we show that wet ARs dominate the high‐category ARs (Category 4 and 5) with higher spatial frequency and more precipitation, and windy ARs have higher contributions in the lower AR categories especially over British Columbia. Windy ARs are modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections via the anomalous geopotential height and extended subtropical jet. Wet ARs are affected by the anomalous sea surface temperature over the midlatitudes related to ENSO. Sensitivity analysis with an alternate AR detection algorithm shows consistent results on AR flavors but with disagreement on the amplitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the representation of the Australian carbon cycle in global vegetation models

Australia plays an important role in the global terrestrial carbon cycle on inter-annual timescales. While the Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations of net biome production (NBP) and the carbon stored in vegetation between 1901 to 2018 from 13 DGVMs (TRENDY v8 ensemble). We focused our analysis on Australia's short-term (inter-annual) and long-term (decadal to centennial) terrestrial carbon dynamics. The TRENDY models simulated differing magnitudes of NBP on inter-annual timescales, and these differences resulted in significant differences in long-term vegetation carbon accumulation (–4.7 to 9.5 Pg C). We compared the TRENDY ensemble to several satellite-derived datasets and showed that the spread in the models' simulated carbon storage resulted from varying changes in carbon residence time rather than differences in net carbon uptake. Differences in simulated long-term accumulated NBP between models were mostly due to model responses to land-use change. The DGVMs also simulated different sensitivities to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, although notably, the models with nutrient cycles did not simulate the smallest NBP response to CO 2 . Our results suggest that a change in the climate forcing did not have a large impact on the carbon cycle on long timescales. However, the inter-annual variability in precipitation drives the year-to-year variability in NBP. We analysed the impact of key modes of climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on NBP. While the DGVMs agreed on sign of the response of NBP to El Niño and La Niña and to positive and negative IOD events, the magnitude of inter-annual variability in NBP differed strongly between models. In addition, we find that differences in the timing of simulated phenology and fire dynamics are associated with differences in simulated or prescribed vegetation cover and process representation. We further find model disagreement in simulated vegetation carbon, phenology, and apparent carbon residence time, indicating that the models have different types and coverage of vegetation across Australia (whether prescribed or emergent). Our study highlights the need to evaluate parameter assumptions and the key processes that drive vegetation dynamics, such as phenology, mortality, and fire, in an Australian context to reduce uncertainty across models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

How MJO Teleconnections and ENSO Interference Impacts U.S. Precipitation

A composite analysis reveals how the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) impacts North American rainfall through perturbations in both the upper-tropospheric flow and regional low-level moisture availability. Upper-level divergence associated with the MJO tropical convection drives a quasi-stationary Rossby wave response to the midlatitudes. This forces a midlatitude upper-level dipolar geopotential height anomaly that is accompanied by a westward retraction of the jet stream and reduced rainfall over the central-eastern North Pacific. A reverse effect is found as the MJO propagates eastward across the Maritime Continent. These large differences in the extratropical upper-level flow, combined with anomalies in the regional supply of water vapor, have a profound impact on southeastern U.S. rainfall. The low-frequency variability, including that associated with ENSO, can modify the seasonal background flow (e.g., El Niño and La Niña basic states) affecting the distribution, strength, and propagation of the intraseasonal oscillation and the extratropical teleconnection patterns. The combined effects of the ENSO and the MJO signals result in both spatial and temporal patterns of interference and modulation of North American rainfall. The results from this study show that during a particular phase of an active MJO, the extratropical response can considerably enhance or mask the interannual ENSO signal in the United States, potentially resulting in anomalies of the opposite sign than that expected during a specific ENSO phase. Analyses of specific MJO events during an El Niño or La Niña episode reveal significant contributions to extreme events via constructive and destructive interference of the MJO and ENSO signals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗